Can't get the link to work (can one of you youngsters help me with my DVR?), so:
The irony is really quite incredible as it relates to this years game. MSU loves to play the disrespect card...in fact they survive on it...yet this years team, despite being in the top 5 all season, has very little substance to back up their ranking and lofty national perception. How else do you explain that other than to say that it's all based on recent success as a program?
How can you start off as a top 5 team, slog your way through your first 5 games, yet remain in the top 5 even though every advanced metric known to man slots you closer to the fringe of the top 25...and still play the angry/disrespected card?
I've been known to underrate Sparty the past few years due to a clear and obvious bias against them. Now that that's out in the open, this is what I see from MSU:
The irony is really quite incredible as it relates to this years game. MSU loves to play the disrespect card...in fact they survive on it...yet this years team, despite being in the top 5 all season, has very little substance to back up their ranking and lofty national perception. How else do you explain that other than to say that it's all based on recent success as a program?
How can you start off as a top 5 team, slog your way through your first 5 games, yet remain in the top 5 even though every advanced metric known to man slots you closer to the fringe of the top 25...and still play the angry/disrespected card?
I've been known to underrate Sparty the past few years due to a clear and obvious bias against them. Now that that's out in the open, this is what I see from MSU:
- I'm not attributing their success to luck but I have no other way to put it in this specific context: their extremely fortunate DB recruiting has finally caught up to them. They turned 2* and 3* players into All B10 performers during the past 4 years. JohnnyAdams, Darqueze Denard, Trae Waynes, Kurtis Drummond...those guys were all under-recruited and where multi-year standouts. As you would think, that well has pretty much run dry. You can't consistently hit home runs on low rated recruits without max volume and MSU simply hasn't recruited deep enough DB classes to augment the likelihood of 2* and 3* high school players becoming 2* and 3* college players.
- The Ed Davis injury has been devastating. When the injury occurred I completely underestimated its impact on the defense. Davis has never been anything special in coverage but he's a solid run defender and a really good blitzer on passing downs. They haven't been able to replace him with somebody that does both of those things well. For years they reloaded spots throughout their entire defense, but they seem to belacking the impressive depth of the past few years.
- The DL has underperformed or is just plain overrated. Lawrence Thomas looks like just-a-guy to me. Calhoun is an above average DE but his reputation is built more on being in the right place at the right time and scoring a few TD's a couple years ago than anything he's done since then. McDowell is legit, but he's surrounded by what looks to me to be an average supporting cast.
- I think they miss Narduzzi more than anybody imagined. The base was always Dantonio's so I don't think it's anything schematic, but I'm beginning to believe that the defense really fed off Narduzzi's emotion and enthusiasm. Dantonio and Narduzzi were a perfect compliment to each other and balanced everything out. This defense doesn't play with the same edge. It's a far cry from 4 quarters of unnecessary roughness or whatever Narduzzi said a few years back. Not only that but they haven't been nearly as good in the second half of games, which can be an ominous sign relating to adjustments (or lack thereof).
Those are my thoughts and if you were to ask me if MSU is a sandbagging snake in the grass or what all the metrics say they are...I'd have to believe my eyes and say that it's far more likely that they're just an average team. Maybe they can collectively reach another level whenthey need too, but they just look so average in so many places that it's hard for me to believe that.
