I thought this overview was good and 10 times more objective than anything you see from the writers at that site, much less anywhere else. Make sure you check out the bottom where he discusses MSU and also Harbaugh's track record on defense with an emphasis at Stanford and some stats and info which might surprise a lot of you. Definitely was different than I had assumed.
Some add'l personnel info throughout including defense strength and weaknesses and players who might be done via medical DQ, etc. Also recruiting gaps on D in prior classes is emphasized.
Looks like Harbaugh needs to quit worrying about his shirt and figure out what he is going to do on D after this year.
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/summer-time-defense-depth-chart
Summer Time Defense Depth Chart
By alum96 — May 29th, 2015 at 2:39 PM — 39 comments
Filed under:
With June days away, and the board under constant Nike v Adidas attack, thought I'd steal some Mr. Yost thunder and do a 2 deep for the defense for 2015. I was going to do this for the offense but as I looked over the RB, WR, and even OL positions it is really in constant flux - any number of guys could be starters or backups and even positions on the OL are not set in stone. So it's way more guesswork.
Unlike Mr. Yost who does this as a data set I'll add some thoughts and comments.
Defensive Ends:
Freshmen: Johnson, Jones
Lost in the Weeds: Strobel
Views: Of the 5 position groups on defense the DEs have the most variability and question marks. Depth is an issue - any injury could cause havoc. Or cause the team to go heavily to a 3-4 system.
Ojemudia played decently in spots last year but this will be the first time starting. Charlton is already a JR - he is one of those guys who you wonder if he is a great athlete or a great football player. One hopes he turns into the latter in the next 2 years. For now he has the "potential" label. Wormley intrigues me as he is a guy who can flex out to SDE and in a 3 man front could be an end. I see him as potentially being more impactful than Charlton but that's just an uninformed guess - he does seem to make splash plays and will be 2 years removed from his ACL this year. He could also play inside but I think the depth chart says we need him outside next year. If he breaks out, a lot of concerns for the DEs could go away.
From there the dropoff in experience is vast. Marshall is a projected backup WDE but right now that is based on no one else on the depth chart. He did make a splash play or two in the spring game but... it's a spring game. Godin is a plugger at the WDE and could also play inside at 287 lbs. Then you have a few not perfect fits - Hurst is more of a DT but with his "quick first step" and weight (281) he could play as a DE in a pinch. Jenkins-Stone was a highly ranked LB out of HS who has done next to nothing in his time at UM other than in spring apparently where he is always hyped as doing well. Then fall comes and he disappears. I don't expect much from him but at 240 lbs he would seem to be the 3rd WDE. Speaking of disappearing 4 star Strobel is a guy most fans probably don't even remember at this point.
**They seemingly have shipped Poggi to TE but in theory - in case of injuries - he could flip back to WDE.
UM recruited 2 freshmen in 2015 but it would seem - barring a lot of injuries - neither is going to be playing in 2015 at their current projected weights. Each could use 15+ lbs (i.e. a redshirt year).
Defensive Tackles:
Freshmen: None
Medical?: Pipkins
Views: Having a strong 2 deep at the DT is a nice luxury for the 2015 team. There should not be much drop off from starters to backups. In fact if Mone and Wormley were starting at Utah over Glasgow and Henry you wouldn't bat an eye really. You'll notice Wormley here along with Hurst - these are probably their more natural positions but in a 3-4 they could be your ends (along with a Charlton type). Heck Henry might be an end in a 3-4. It will be interestng to see how it plays out.
Henry is tantalizing - he is talked up by the staff and does some very good things on the field. Then sometimes he doesn't. Have to remember he was only a RS SO last year - the next 2 years should be very good for him and the no nonsense staff should help any potential attitude issues (i.e. drive). Glasgow is a 297 lb NT - that's tough but (cliche time) you can't measure heart! He is not going to get you much in pass rush but seems like a very good run stopper. Mone makes hearts flutter and performed much better than Pipkins in these sets of eyes in their respective freshman years. The FR to SO leap for an interior linemen should make him a serious contributer this year and in the 320s he is a mountain of a man.
Wormley has proven pass rush capabilities from the inside and Hurst - again a young guy that it seems like we've been hearing good stuff on from practice reports for a few years - seems like he is ready to take a step as a contributor much like a Bolden did a year ago in the LBs. This sets up a lot of flexibility in pass rush options as you could have a big stout but still pretty effective pass rush group of say Charlton, Henry, Hurst, Wormley. Whatever the case the DTs have talent, depth, and lots of competition among talented players which should drive the group.
I've assumed with so much fire around his name, Pipkins will have be a medical...
Linebackers:
Freshmen: None
This is a solid workmanlike group but it seems to lack elite playmaking. I'd also argue it lacks depth. And it gets downright scary in 2016 when all 3 projected starters graduate. (UM might take 2 grad transfers here in 2016 the way this depth chart looks!!)
Bolden seems like the most sure thing as a starter after he and Jake Ryan combined for an enormous amount of playing time last year. UM played a ton of 2 LB sets, essentially erasing the SAM position for large portions of games and going with a nickel. Morgan is a presumed starter at the MIKE but I hold out hope Gedeon is seriously going to push there. He is another tantalizing guy that we've seen splashes of to get our interest up but not over a sustained period of time. At the SAM, Ross is a mystery - a 2 year starter he entered 2014 expected to continue to be an undersized fast LB - but disappeared for much of the first half of the year it seemed like. One hopes he re-emerges this year - his size hurts him but with a guy like this if you can keep him clean he is one of the few guys in the LB core with serious speed. His backup is RJS but again see notes above - guy has been a disappearing act for 3 years so I am not counting on him. I really would have liked to see Dymonte Thomas bulk up to 210-215 lbs and take a swipe at SAM in his remaining 2 years at UM.
The backups are worrisome and injuries to this unit could be a big issue. Not recruiting an impact LB this class hurt as he could have been someone who was part of the 2 deep, especially at that SAM position. And it will hurt even more in 2016 when this team is probably going to be running out multiple freshmen on the 2 deep. With Winovich switched to TE (head scratcher to me) and Ferns transferring all you are left at from the 2014 class is often injured Furbush and Wangler. Can either help this year? They will have to in 2016. McCray is a MIKE type who has yet to really make any impact on the football team (was injured this spring) and Gant is a lightly regarded SAMish type. Again the worry is depth here - once you get past LB #4 (Gedeon) you open up a lot of question marks. The starting unit should be "solid" but it would be nice to really develop LBs other teams have to game plan for.
Safeties:
Freshmen: Kinnel
The much hyped Peppers joins Wilson at the safety position. If Dymonte Thomas had developed as projected out of HS (or Hoke didnt stop recruiting wonderkid Montae Nicholson - grrrr), one wonders how dynamic a corner tandem of Peppers and Lewis could have been but that is not our situation. So Peppers takes over and is joined by a solid if unspectacular Wilson. There will be a learning curve for Peppers and a busted assignment here or there but one hopes the football IQ and pure athleticism helps hide that, especially by the time the conf season rolls around.
Thomas and Clark are sort of ... well meh for now. Clark played nicely vs App State and you have sugar plum dreams of a 6'4 safety but that was App State. When real competition rolled in Clark did not look good. Dymonte Thomas is a worry as a guy who will never reach his potential - this year should be a make or break year as he is already a JR and if he doesnt make an impact this year, your only hope is a Will Campbell SR yr miracle.
The 2 that intrigue me are Hill and Kinnel. Hill had a rough 2014 with all the injuries - he had supposedly won the starting spot across from Wilson and then promptly was hurt. He returned later in the year, but getting trucked by Connor Cook was a testament to the type of season it was. He still seems like someone who has good potential and a good year for him would help alleviate worries about the 2016 SS position. As for Kinnel, I am for some reason buying this kid's hype. He has great size at already 205 and is one of the guys I could see losing his redshirt with the inevitable injuries every team has in the secondary.
In nickel defenses one assumes Peppers moves over to nickel and Hill and Wilson are your traditional safeties. Unless Dymonte Thomas has a break through and can figure out nickel.
There is also a wildcard here with a guy like Moncrief from Auburn but he was a backup beat out regularly by other, younger players and frankly a prospect like Hill seems more interesting. But maybe he provides injury insurance if he were to arrive.
Cornerbacks:
Lost in the weeds: Richardson
Freshmen: Washington
I am expecting great things out of Lewis. It might not show up in the stat sheet if teams avoid him. Barring injury I don't see a reason to ever take him out of the game - the drop off between him and anyone else is vast, especially Douglass/Dawson types.
At the other corner the loss of Countess hurts. He wasn't a great player but he was needed depth. Lyons is an ok player (see my diary on him here) but not a world beater - that said Pac 12 QBs crush Big 10 QBs with the exception of OSU, MSU and most years of late Indiana. So he will have an easier job in the Big 10 facing Minnesota and Rutgers type offenses (err, excluding SuperGaryNova). But my hope is Brandon Watson beats him out. Watson looked great in the spring game but ... sigh... it was against our QBs and WRs. He has good size and if he beats out a veteran in Lyons it would be a lot like if Morris beats out Rudock - it would give you a nice floor as a backup and mean very good things for the new starter. Stribling is also there and unfortunately had a rough SO campaign. I thought he would show up last fall up 15 lbs heavier and ready to build on the very understandable mistakes of an unheralded FR CB. Instead he seemed marginalized even further by the coaching staff. And then this year shows up for spring at almost the exact same weight - again. Frustrating. 6'2 195 lb Stribling seems far better suited for Big 10 play than 6'2 178 lb Stribling. He is still a wildcard and I hope the new staff does more with him as he seemed interesting as a freshman.
Douglas and Dawson are not people I feel comfortable rolling out as contributors at this point. Hopefully they can contribute something. Terry Richardson falls into the Strobel camp - a 4 star recruit who has had zero real impact on football Saturdays - and at this point you can't really count on to contribute. Also I don't expect Washington to see the light of day - he looks like a player who really needs a RS year both from size and learning this position.
Overall:
While Michigan's NCAA defensive rank was pretty decent all that does is rank teams by average yards given up per game. And that gives a major advantage to every Big 10 defense as the offenses - save for a few - have been anywhere from pedestrian to poor by and large for years. Advanced stats showed a Michigan defense which ranked around 40ish in the country and 6th to 8th in the Big 10 last year. That felt about right - and that was disappointing considering the defense was expected to be top 3 going into 2014. Even the things the team did right (rush defense) let the team down when needed (Minnesota). It wasn't a bad defense but it wasn't as good as it looked on paper. The end of 1st half implosions also caused us to pull out our hair.
While the NFL losses are significant (specifically Ryan and Clark) better position coaching should help as will any reversion to mean in the turnovers caused which was abysmal in 2014. The entire team had 5 INTs last year; multiple DBs on other Big 10 teams had more than our entire team. Fumbles caused was also pathetic. Just adding 8 more TOs a year by this unit - which would just be a "normal" year, should help change the field and make the defense "feel" better. I dont buy the "defense was on the field too long" argument at all for last year's failures - Michigan not only had the ball over 30 minutes a game on offense they also played at a very slow pace in real time terms. Lack of dynamic playmakers and ability to flip the field hurt more.
The 2015 defense should also be interesting in terms of formations - while others have said the type of "3-4" Durkin runs won't be a sea change the position flexibility of a few players on the DL (Charlton, Wormley, Henry, Hurst) should make for interesting post game analysis. The obvious strength are the DTs with a potential pair of top end DBs - Peppers still needs to prove it on the field vs non MAC competition. LBs seem solid if not game changers. Finding solutions at the 2nd CB and DEs are the key - pressuring the QB is probably going to be the #1 issue for this defense. #2 will be depth at various positions - while one feels comfortable with the starters at most spots, the backups are either unproven or proven to be a significant step down, esp in the back 7. So when injuries do hit - can we get servicable production from the next guy on the totem pole?
May 29th, 2015 at 3:00 PM (Reply to #2) #3
alum96
Joined: 04/28/2012
MGoPoints: 32696
Yep definitely remember that
Yep definitely remember that and thinking "well that's a great sign from a young stud". He then disappeared for the rest of the year. If he can't figure out playing in space - which seems to be his issue - I would, as I wrote above, pack on 20 lbs on him and return him to his HS position and have him be an OLB on 3rd down passing sets.
If he had turned out to the level of his recruitment level we'd have a DB of 3 potential studs (Lewis, Thomas, Peppers) married to a solid SR in Wilson and it would be a hell of a safety net. I know we do love Peppers as a run killer from the S spot and that's probably where his NFL future lies but if you have 2 erasers at CB ...well it's just a rare thing. This would assume of course Peppers is an eraser @ CB - we don't know that.
What's strange with Thomas is you hear more hype from guys like Royce Jenkins Stone every spring than you do with Thomas. And RJS is not a guy who really contributes in the fall. Not that buzz is everything - its hit or miss i.e. Bolden v Canteen - but it seemed like another quiet year for him this spring. People seemed more excited about Hill.
Brace Yourselves. Youth is Coming to the 2017 Defense.
May 30th, 2015 at 12:23 AM (Reply to #11) #16
alum96
Joined: 04/28/2012
MGoPoints: 3269
Well it is amazing at the long term implications of a bad class (or two) can have on a program. Not only was 2010 the worst recruiting class in modern history it left holes everywhere - holes that eventually got Hoke fired, along with (apparently) promising Morris not to recruit a QB in the year after him. A complete no no. Then that was followed up by a 2011 class that was transitional (Hoke + RR) and had a lot of non performers and people who checked out early. If not for Morgan's injury we'd not have 1 single RS SR from that 2011 class....as it stands with Hayes, Heitzman, Bellomy and Countess transferring, we only have 1. And truthfully of that group Countess was the only front line starter. For comparison I think MSU has something like 12 RS SRs - 5 of their front 7 on D alone are RS SR. Unlike basketball having 22/23 year old men out there helps a lot in football.
I do like to look ahead (see signature) and yes we have personnel issues coming. The tiny defensive haul in 2015 will hurt down the road. Like a bad class in 2010... you wont "feel" it until 2017-2018. We have 5 whole defensive players in this class - with normal attrition, injuries, players who don't pan out - you may get 3 of those guys to truly contribute as JRs/SRs. That is going to mean a young defense down the rroad. The 2014 class was also not huge on defensive players.... only 8, and 1 has transferred. 1 seems to be a TE now.
So in those 2 classes combined you have at most 12 lottery tickets i.e. players. If you take a traditional class of 22 recruits, maybe 11 in 1 year will be defense. So 22 over a 2 year cycle.... we will only have 12 for that 2 year cycle (at most). So we're going to be in that sorrt of situation lacking JRs and SRs down the road.
What does it mean? It means you can't be MSU on defense and redshirt guys, sit them, develop them. You need high ability guys who can come in and play right away. And you need you offense to be great to offset the young defense - OSU has some studs on defense but aside from Bosa they dont talk about OSU's defense because the offensive is so high flying and effective. UM's wont be as pretty as OSU but it can be ball control dominant in theory and keep the defense off the field.
The lack of a LB in this past class will have implications for this year but especially 2016. The lack of a DT doesnt matter for this year because we are stacked but wouldnt you want a guy to come in and be a RS in 2015 then be a RS FR in 2016 and be ready to be a major contributor as a RS SO in 2017? Because we lose almost all our interior lineman save Hurst and Mone after 2016. So we'll have true SOs and RS FRs at best as the backups - doable but not ideal. And the entire secondary is going to have to be rebuilt in 2 years, esp if Peppers goes pro. Lewis, Stribling, Lyons, Wilson, Peppers are all gone - you basically have Kinnel, Washington, Watson and a lot of questions in 2 years. Would have been nice to land another fish or two to supplement that in 2015 as the back 4 are going to be very young in 2017 outside of those 3. But to a degree you can plug in younger guys easier in the secondary than the DL... but you will still have rookie type mistakes that comes with the position.
This is why I am a bit surprised our defensive recruiting is going so slow. We can offer monster playing time at almost every position (except ironically DE, where we actually did land 2 players in 2015 and have some younger guys still) in 2016 (LBs) and 2017 (S, CB, LB, DTs). It's important to land guys in these next 2 classes on D who can play immediately or near immediately.
And no, I don't think a yearly influx of grad transfers is going to be a great solution. If you could take pure transfers more often it would help as Hoke could have taken 3 OL JUCOs a few years ago to supplement the 2013 OL and Harbaugh could have accepted 2-3 LB JUCOs this year to have ready for 2016. But it's not really an option at UM. Grad transfers are generally going to be guys like Furman or Lyons or Hayes Moncrief - guys who were displaced or never really grabbed a starting role. I see them more as depth guys and not guys you plug in as a starter. Guys like Countess are more of an exception to the grad transfer situation - he is better than average.
June 1st, 2015 at 8:07 PM (Reply to #29) #18
alum96
Joined: 04/28/2012
MGoPoints: 32696
I just don't think there are
I just don't think there are that many grad transfers of value out there. Wilson is a massive anomaly who had very specific circumstances around him. If you put 100 grad transfers in a bucket you can't pick the very best one of those 100 and say "look how effective it is". The average grad transfer is a ho hum player who is probably a backup. I didnt think Blake Countess was an all star but I thought he was better from Lyons as I read up on Lyons.
Countess also would probably be in the top 10% of grad transfers - these are exceptions to the rule. The typical grad transfer is a lot more like Rawls or Moncrief - a guy constantly beat out by other guys and not a starter type.
Can you support the depth of a group with grad transfers? Sure. But if you are counting on front line starters for a team competing for conference championships it is difficult to rely on this system for a multitude of players. And it speaks to how bad your own development is if you need so many.
May 30th, 2015 at 5:32 PM (Reply to #14) #23
alum96
Joined: 04/28/2012
MGoPoints: 32696
Harbaugh is not a defensive
Harbaugh is not a defensive coach just like Urban Meyer is not. I wouldnt talk about the D at Stanford in Harbaugh terms - he sets the program tone and works with the offense mostly. Stanford got by with offense their first 3 years - not defense. Stanford's first 3 defenses ranged from bad to mediocre - they were poor mostly. It wasn't until the 4th year when Vic Fangio showed up that the defense took a huge leap. Or you could argue Harbaugh's recruiting which took a few years to kick in on the defense combined with an elite coordinator. The same Fangio who did very good things with the 49ers.
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/cc-statistical-look-jim-harbaughs-stanford-years
(2007-2010)
W/L Tot Off oFEI oS&P+ Tot Def dFEI dS&P+
2006 1-11 118 - 113 97 - 99
2007 4-8 107 61 83 98 49 85
2008 5-7 67 48 31 75 80 87
2009 8-5 19 1 6 90 91 113
2010 12-1 14 5 3 21 6 6
2011 11-2 8 6 8 26 13 22
Still it took 4 years to get there - not a solution for 2016 for UM. And yes we get a higher quality of player but again we only have 12 of them in total for 2 years worth of recruiting on the defense. It's a numbers game - we should have had 20-22.
As for Dantonio - MSU has a model of redshirting almost everyone who is not a 5 star or close (2-3 guys a year dont redshirt, and usually 1 is a kicker type) and then having them make an impact in year 3-5 of their career. That is not the typical UM model and certainly aside from Furbush and Wagner not an option for UM. Gedeon is the only guy who seems on the MSU track i.e. redshirt, then get some taste of the game in year 2-3 but not be relied upon ....then play a key role in year 4/5. Gant is thus far a non entity and McCray really has not been heard from other than special teams. So those guys don't fit that model. And I have doubts that guys who have had zero taste of real playing time on the D suddenly become front line starters as JRs/SRs.
I have to assume Winovich is going to be flipped back to LB just from a #s perspective. But if he is going to be a LB in 2016 he should be training as one in 2015. He has no college game experience at the position so thrusting him in a starting role (if he wins one) after practicing a year at TE would not make sense to me. Losing Ferns was a huge hit - he seemed like a Harbaugh recruit if ever there was one. Furbush has seemingly been hurt constantly since on campus and Wangler - name aside - seemed more like a legacy recruit. We'll see if he can become something. Unlike the DTs with say a Hurst you don't hear a thing about the Furbush, Wangler types pushing the older players based on pure talent.
But the bigger point of this issue is you need X candidates to develop Y starters... and Z backups. And in college football no matter how good the coaching you get a certain # of flameouts. With such low #s to begin with (12 defensive players over 2 recruiting cycles) and with flameouts ineviable you have a very limited pool of players to develop. So guys who would not normally be starting probably will end up doing so just because we need warm bodies at those positions. I do think if we land a Caleb Kelly type - he might be a starter right off in 2016.
Some add'l personnel info throughout including defense strength and weaknesses and players who might be done via medical DQ, etc. Also recruiting gaps on D in prior classes is emphasized.
Looks like Harbaugh needs to quit worrying about his shirt and figure out what he is going to do on D after this year.
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/summer-time-defense-depth-chart
Summer Time Defense Depth Chart
By alum96 — May 29th, 2015 at 2:39 PM — 39 comments
Filed under:
With June days away, and the board under constant Nike v Adidas attack, thought I'd steal some Mr. Yost thunder and do a 2 deep for the defense for 2015. I was going to do this for the offense but as I looked over the RB, WR, and even OL positions it is really in constant flux - any number of guys could be starters or backups and even positions on the OL are not set in stone. So it's way more guesswork.
Unlike Mr. Yost who does this as a data set I'll add some thoughts and comments.
Defensive Ends:
- SDE: Charlton OR Wormley / Charlton OR Wormley
- WDE: Ojemudia / Marshall
Freshmen: Johnson, Jones
Lost in the Weeds: Strobel
Views: Of the 5 position groups on defense the DEs have the most variability and question marks. Depth is an issue - any injury could cause havoc. Or cause the team to go heavily to a 3-4 system.
Ojemudia played decently in spots last year but this will be the first time starting. Charlton is already a JR - he is one of those guys who you wonder if he is a great athlete or a great football player. One hopes he turns into the latter in the next 2 years. For now he has the "potential" label. Wormley intrigues me as he is a guy who can flex out to SDE and in a 3 man front could be an end. I see him as potentially being more impactful than Charlton but that's just an uninformed guess - he does seem to make splash plays and will be 2 years removed from his ACL this year. He could also play inside but I think the depth chart says we need him outside next year. If he breaks out, a lot of concerns for the DEs could go away.
From there the dropoff in experience is vast. Marshall is a projected backup WDE but right now that is based on no one else on the depth chart. He did make a splash play or two in the spring game but... it's a spring game. Godin is a plugger at the WDE and could also play inside at 287 lbs. Then you have a few not perfect fits - Hurst is more of a DT but with his "quick first step" and weight (281) he could play as a DE in a pinch. Jenkins-Stone was a highly ranked LB out of HS who has done next to nothing in his time at UM other than in spring apparently where he is always hyped as doing well. Then fall comes and he disappears. I don't expect much from him but at 240 lbs he would seem to be the 3rd WDE. Speaking of disappearing 4 star Strobel is a guy most fans probably don't even remember at this point.
**They seemingly have shipped Poggi to TE but in theory - in case of injuries - he could flip back to WDE.
UM recruited 2 freshmen in 2015 but it would seem - barring a lot of injuries - neither is going to be playing in 2015 at their current projected weights. Each could use 15+ lbs (i.e. a redshirt year).
Defensive Tackles:
- NT: Glasgow / Mone
- DT: Henry / Wormley / Hurst
Freshmen: None
Medical?: Pipkins
Views: Having a strong 2 deep at the DT is a nice luxury for the 2015 team. There should not be much drop off from starters to backups. In fact if Mone and Wormley were starting at Utah over Glasgow and Henry you wouldn't bat an eye really. You'll notice Wormley here along with Hurst - these are probably their more natural positions but in a 3-4 they could be your ends (along with a Charlton type). Heck Henry might be an end in a 3-4. It will be interestng to see how it plays out.
Henry is tantalizing - he is talked up by the staff and does some very good things on the field. Then sometimes he doesn't. Have to remember he was only a RS SO last year - the next 2 years should be very good for him and the no nonsense staff should help any potential attitude issues (i.e. drive). Glasgow is a 297 lb NT - that's tough but (cliche time) you can't measure heart! He is not going to get you much in pass rush but seems like a very good run stopper. Mone makes hearts flutter and performed much better than Pipkins in these sets of eyes in their respective freshman years. The FR to SO leap for an interior linemen should make him a serious contributer this year and in the 320s he is a mountain of a man.
Wormley has proven pass rush capabilities from the inside and Hurst - again a young guy that it seems like we've been hearing good stuff on from practice reports for a few years - seems like he is ready to take a step as a contributor much like a Bolden did a year ago in the LBs. This sets up a lot of flexibility in pass rush options as you could have a big stout but still pretty effective pass rush group of say Charlton, Henry, Hurst, Wormley. Whatever the case the DTs have talent, depth, and lots of competition among talented players which should drive the group.
I've assumed with so much fire around his name, Pipkins will have be a medical...
Linebackers:
- SAM: Ross / Jenkins-Stone
- MIKE: Morgan / Gedeon
- WILL: Bolden / Gedeon
Freshmen: None
This is a solid workmanlike group but it seems to lack elite playmaking. I'd also argue it lacks depth. And it gets downright scary in 2016 when all 3 projected starters graduate. (UM might take 2 grad transfers here in 2016 the way this depth chart looks!!)
Bolden seems like the most sure thing as a starter after he and Jake Ryan combined for an enormous amount of playing time last year. UM played a ton of 2 LB sets, essentially erasing the SAM position for large portions of games and going with a nickel. Morgan is a presumed starter at the MIKE but I hold out hope Gedeon is seriously going to push there. He is another tantalizing guy that we've seen splashes of to get our interest up but not over a sustained period of time. At the SAM, Ross is a mystery - a 2 year starter he entered 2014 expected to continue to be an undersized fast LB - but disappeared for much of the first half of the year it seemed like. One hopes he re-emerges this year - his size hurts him but with a guy like this if you can keep him clean he is one of the few guys in the LB core with serious speed. His backup is RJS but again see notes above - guy has been a disappearing act for 3 years so I am not counting on him. I really would have liked to see Dymonte Thomas bulk up to 210-215 lbs and take a swipe at SAM in his remaining 2 years at UM.
The backups are worrisome and injuries to this unit could be a big issue. Not recruiting an impact LB this class hurt as he could have been someone who was part of the 2 deep, especially at that SAM position. And it will hurt even more in 2016 when this team is probably going to be running out multiple freshmen on the 2 deep. With Winovich switched to TE (head scratcher to me) and Ferns transferring all you are left at from the 2014 class is often injured Furbush and Wangler. Can either help this year? They will have to in 2016. McCray is a MIKE type who has yet to really make any impact on the football team (was injured this spring) and Gant is a lightly regarded SAMish type. Again the worry is depth here - once you get past LB #4 (Gedeon) you open up a lot of question marks. The starting unit should be "solid" but it would be nice to really develop LBs other teams have to game plan for.
Safeties:
- FS: Peppers / Thomas or Kinnel
- SS: Wilson / Hill
Freshmen: Kinnel
The much hyped Peppers joins Wilson at the safety position. If Dymonte Thomas had developed as projected out of HS (or Hoke didnt stop recruiting wonderkid Montae Nicholson - grrrr), one wonders how dynamic a corner tandem of Peppers and Lewis could have been but that is not our situation. So Peppers takes over and is joined by a solid if unspectacular Wilson. There will be a learning curve for Peppers and a busted assignment here or there but one hopes the football IQ and pure athleticism helps hide that, especially by the time the conf season rolls around.
Thomas and Clark are sort of ... well meh for now. Clark played nicely vs App State and you have sugar plum dreams of a 6'4 safety but that was App State. When real competition rolled in Clark did not look good. Dymonte Thomas is a worry as a guy who will never reach his potential - this year should be a make or break year as he is already a JR and if he doesnt make an impact this year, your only hope is a Will Campbell SR yr miracle.
The 2 that intrigue me are Hill and Kinnel. Hill had a rough 2014 with all the injuries - he had supposedly won the starting spot across from Wilson and then promptly was hurt. He returned later in the year, but getting trucked by Connor Cook was a testament to the type of season it was. He still seems like someone who has good potential and a good year for him would help alleviate worries about the 2016 SS position. As for Kinnel, I am for some reason buying this kid's hype. He has great size at already 205 and is one of the guys I could see losing his redshirt with the inevitable injuries every team has in the secondary.
In nickel defenses one assumes Peppers moves over to nickel and Hill and Wilson are your traditional safeties. Unless Dymonte Thomas has a break through and can figure out nickel.
There is also a wildcard here with a guy like Moncrief from Auburn but he was a backup beat out regularly by other, younger players and frankly a prospect like Hill seems more interesting. But maybe he provides injury insurance if he were to arrive.
Cornerbacks:
- CB: Lewis / Douglas
- SS: Lyons OR Watson OR Stribling
Lost in the weeds: Richardson
Freshmen: Washington
I am expecting great things out of Lewis. It might not show up in the stat sheet if teams avoid him. Barring injury I don't see a reason to ever take him out of the game - the drop off between him and anyone else is vast, especially Douglass/Dawson types.
At the other corner the loss of Countess hurts. He wasn't a great player but he was needed depth. Lyons is an ok player (see my diary on him here) but not a world beater - that said Pac 12 QBs crush Big 10 QBs with the exception of OSU, MSU and most years of late Indiana. So he will have an easier job in the Big 10 facing Minnesota and Rutgers type offenses (err, excluding SuperGaryNova). But my hope is Brandon Watson beats him out. Watson looked great in the spring game but ... sigh... it was against our QBs and WRs. He has good size and if he beats out a veteran in Lyons it would be a lot like if Morris beats out Rudock - it would give you a nice floor as a backup and mean very good things for the new starter. Stribling is also there and unfortunately had a rough SO campaign. I thought he would show up last fall up 15 lbs heavier and ready to build on the very understandable mistakes of an unheralded FR CB. Instead he seemed marginalized even further by the coaching staff. And then this year shows up for spring at almost the exact same weight - again. Frustrating. 6'2 195 lb Stribling seems far better suited for Big 10 play than 6'2 178 lb Stribling. He is still a wildcard and I hope the new staff does more with him as he seemed interesting as a freshman.
Douglas and Dawson are not people I feel comfortable rolling out as contributors at this point. Hopefully they can contribute something. Terry Richardson falls into the Strobel camp - a 4 star recruit who has had zero real impact on football Saturdays - and at this point you can't really count on to contribute. Also I don't expect Washington to see the light of day - he looks like a player who really needs a RS year both from size and learning this position.
Overall:
While Michigan's NCAA defensive rank was pretty decent all that does is rank teams by average yards given up per game. And that gives a major advantage to every Big 10 defense as the offenses - save for a few - have been anywhere from pedestrian to poor by and large for years. Advanced stats showed a Michigan defense which ranked around 40ish in the country and 6th to 8th in the Big 10 last year. That felt about right - and that was disappointing considering the defense was expected to be top 3 going into 2014. Even the things the team did right (rush defense) let the team down when needed (Minnesota). It wasn't a bad defense but it wasn't as good as it looked on paper. The end of 1st half implosions also caused us to pull out our hair.
While the NFL losses are significant (specifically Ryan and Clark) better position coaching should help as will any reversion to mean in the turnovers caused which was abysmal in 2014. The entire team had 5 INTs last year; multiple DBs on other Big 10 teams had more than our entire team. Fumbles caused was also pathetic. Just adding 8 more TOs a year by this unit - which would just be a "normal" year, should help change the field and make the defense "feel" better. I dont buy the "defense was on the field too long" argument at all for last year's failures - Michigan not only had the ball over 30 minutes a game on offense they also played at a very slow pace in real time terms. Lack of dynamic playmakers and ability to flip the field hurt more.
The 2015 defense should also be interesting in terms of formations - while others have said the type of "3-4" Durkin runs won't be a sea change the position flexibility of a few players on the DL (Charlton, Wormley, Henry, Hurst) should make for interesting post game analysis. The obvious strength are the DTs with a potential pair of top end DBs - Peppers still needs to prove it on the field vs non MAC competition. LBs seem solid if not game changers. Finding solutions at the 2nd CB and DEs are the key - pressuring the QB is probably going to be the #1 issue for this defense. #2 will be depth at various positions - while one feels comfortable with the starters at most spots, the backups are either unproven or proven to be a significant step down, esp in the back 7. So when injuries do hit - can we get servicable production from the next guy on the totem pole?
May 29th, 2015 at 3:00 PM (Reply to #2) #3
alum96
Joined: 04/28/2012
MGoPoints: 32696
Yep definitely remember that
Yep definitely remember that and thinking "well that's a great sign from a young stud". He then disappeared for the rest of the year. If he can't figure out playing in space - which seems to be his issue - I would, as I wrote above, pack on 20 lbs on him and return him to his HS position and have him be an OLB on 3rd down passing sets.
If he had turned out to the level of his recruitment level we'd have a DB of 3 potential studs (Lewis, Thomas, Peppers) married to a solid SR in Wilson and it would be a hell of a safety net. I know we do love Peppers as a run killer from the S spot and that's probably where his NFL future lies but if you have 2 erasers at CB ...well it's just a rare thing. This would assume of course Peppers is an eraser @ CB - we don't know that.
What's strange with Thomas is you hear more hype from guys like Royce Jenkins Stone every spring than you do with Thomas. And RJS is not a guy who really contributes in the fall. Not that buzz is everything - its hit or miss i.e. Bolden v Canteen - but it seemed like another quiet year for him this spring. People seemed more excited about Hill.
Brace Yourselves. Youth is Coming to the 2017 Defense.
May 30th, 2015 at 12:23 AM (Reply to #11) #16
alum96
Joined: 04/28/2012
MGoPoints: 3269
Well it is amazing at the long term implications of a bad class (or two) can have on a program. Not only was 2010 the worst recruiting class in modern history it left holes everywhere - holes that eventually got Hoke fired, along with (apparently) promising Morris not to recruit a QB in the year after him. A complete no no. Then that was followed up by a 2011 class that was transitional (Hoke + RR) and had a lot of non performers and people who checked out early. If not for Morgan's injury we'd not have 1 single RS SR from that 2011 class....as it stands with Hayes, Heitzman, Bellomy and Countess transferring, we only have 1. And truthfully of that group Countess was the only front line starter. For comparison I think MSU has something like 12 RS SRs - 5 of their front 7 on D alone are RS SR. Unlike basketball having 22/23 year old men out there helps a lot in football.
I do like to look ahead (see signature) and yes we have personnel issues coming. The tiny defensive haul in 2015 will hurt down the road. Like a bad class in 2010... you wont "feel" it until 2017-2018. We have 5 whole defensive players in this class - with normal attrition, injuries, players who don't pan out - you may get 3 of those guys to truly contribute as JRs/SRs. That is going to mean a young defense down the rroad. The 2014 class was also not huge on defensive players.... only 8, and 1 has transferred. 1 seems to be a TE now.
So in those 2 classes combined you have at most 12 lottery tickets i.e. players. If you take a traditional class of 22 recruits, maybe 11 in 1 year will be defense. So 22 over a 2 year cycle.... we will only have 12 for that 2 year cycle (at most). So we're going to be in that sorrt of situation lacking JRs and SRs down the road.
What does it mean? It means you can't be MSU on defense and redshirt guys, sit them, develop them. You need high ability guys who can come in and play right away. And you need you offense to be great to offset the young defense - OSU has some studs on defense but aside from Bosa they dont talk about OSU's defense because the offensive is so high flying and effective. UM's wont be as pretty as OSU but it can be ball control dominant in theory and keep the defense off the field.
The lack of a LB in this past class will have implications for this year but especially 2016. The lack of a DT doesnt matter for this year because we are stacked but wouldnt you want a guy to come in and be a RS in 2015 then be a RS FR in 2016 and be ready to be a major contributor as a RS SO in 2017? Because we lose almost all our interior lineman save Hurst and Mone after 2016. So we'll have true SOs and RS FRs at best as the backups - doable but not ideal. And the entire secondary is going to have to be rebuilt in 2 years, esp if Peppers goes pro. Lewis, Stribling, Lyons, Wilson, Peppers are all gone - you basically have Kinnel, Washington, Watson and a lot of questions in 2 years. Would have been nice to land another fish or two to supplement that in 2015 as the back 4 are going to be very young in 2017 outside of those 3. But to a degree you can plug in younger guys easier in the secondary than the DL... but you will still have rookie type mistakes that comes with the position.
This is why I am a bit surprised our defensive recruiting is going so slow. We can offer monster playing time at almost every position (except ironically DE, where we actually did land 2 players in 2015 and have some younger guys still) in 2016 (LBs) and 2017 (S, CB, LB, DTs). It's important to land guys in these next 2 classes on D who can play immediately or near immediately.
And no, I don't think a yearly influx of grad transfers is going to be a great solution. If you could take pure transfers more often it would help as Hoke could have taken 3 OL JUCOs a few years ago to supplement the 2013 OL and Harbaugh could have accepted 2-3 LB JUCOs this year to have ready for 2016. But it's not really an option at UM. Grad transfers are generally going to be guys like Furman or Lyons or Hayes Moncrief - guys who were displaced or never really grabbed a starting role. I see them more as depth guys and not guys you plug in as a starter. Guys like Countess are more of an exception to the grad transfer situation - he is better than average.
June 1st, 2015 at 8:07 PM (Reply to #29) #18
alum96
Joined: 04/28/2012
MGoPoints: 32696
I just don't think there are
I just don't think there are that many grad transfers of value out there. Wilson is a massive anomaly who had very specific circumstances around him. If you put 100 grad transfers in a bucket you can't pick the very best one of those 100 and say "look how effective it is". The average grad transfer is a ho hum player who is probably a backup. I didnt think Blake Countess was an all star but I thought he was better from Lyons as I read up on Lyons.
Countess also would probably be in the top 10% of grad transfers - these are exceptions to the rule. The typical grad transfer is a lot more like Rawls or Moncrief - a guy constantly beat out by other guys and not a starter type.
Can you support the depth of a group with grad transfers? Sure. But if you are counting on front line starters for a team competing for conference championships it is difficult to rely on this system for a multitude of players. And it speaks to how bad your own development is if you need so many.
May 30th, 2015 at 5:32 PM (Reply to #14) #23
alum96
Joined: 04/28/2012
MGoPoints: 32696
Harbaugh is not a defensive
Harbaugh is not a defensive coach just like Urban Meyer is not. I wouldnt talk about the D at Stanford in Harbaugh terms - he sets the program tone and works with the offense mostly. Stanford got by with offense their first 3 years - not defense. Stanford's first 3 defenses ranged from bad to mediocre - they were poor mostly. It wasn't until the 4th year when Vic Fangio showed up that the defense took a huge leap. Or you could argue Harbaugh's recruiting which took a few years to kick in on the defense combined with an elite coordinator. The same Fangio who did very good things with the 49ers.
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/cc-statistical-look-jim-harbaughs-stanford-years
(2007-2010)
W/L Tot Off oFEI oS&P+ Tot Def dFEI dS&P+
2006 1-11 118 - 113 97 - 99
2007 4-8 107 61 83 98 49 85
2008 5-7 67 48 31 75 80 87
2009 8-5 19 1 6 90 91 113
2010 12-1 14 5 3 21 6 6
2011 11-2 8 6 8 26 13 22
Still it took 4 years to get there - not a solution for 2016 for UM. And yes we get a higher quality of player but again we only have 12 of them in total for 2 years worth of recruiting on the defense. It's a numbers game - we should have had 20-22.
As for Dantonio - MSU has a model of redshirting almost everyone who is not a 5 star or close (2-3 guys a year dont redshirt, and usually 1 is a kicker type) and then having them make an impact in year 3-5 of their career. That is not the typical UM model and certainly aside from Furbush and Wagner not an option for UM. Gedeon is the only guy who seems on the MSU track i.e. redshirt, then get some taste of the game in year 2-3 but not be relied upon ....then play a key role in year 4/5. Gant is thus far a non entity and McCray really has not been heard from other than special teams. So those guys don't fit that model. And I have doubts that guys who have had zero taste of real playing time on the D suddenly become front line starters as JRs/SRs.
I have to assume Winovich is going to be flipped back to LB just from a #s perspective. But if he is going to be a LB in 2016 he should be training as one in 2015. He has no college game experience at the position so thrusting him in a starting role (if he wins one) after practicing a year at TE would not make sense to me. Losing Ferns was a huge hit - he seemed like a Harbaugh recruit if ever there was one. Furbush has seemingly been hurt constantly since on campus and Wangler - name aside - seemed more like a legacy recruit. We'll see if he can become something. Unlike the DTs with say a Hurst you don't hear a thing about the Furbush, Wangler types pushing the older players based on pure talent.
But the bigger point of this issue is you need X candidates to develop Y starters... and Z backups. And in college football no matter how good the coaching you get a certain # of flameouts. With such low #s to begin with (12 defensive players over 2 recruiting cycles) and with flameouts ineviable you have a very limited pool of players to develop. So guys who would not normally be starting probably will end up doing so just because we need warm bodies at those positions. I do think if we land a Caleb Kelly type - he might be a starter right off in 2016.
