After this weekend's games, here is the updated Big Ten Conference win matrix with the updated expected wins, derived from Kenpom efficiencies.
MSU has, for now, climbed slightly ahead of UofM with about a half-game lead in expected value of wins (the sum of the projected probability of victory for all games). As for the probability to win the Big Ten (including possible ties). I have this:
Once again, this assumes that MSU (and all teams) continue to play at the average level that they have displayed so far this year.
As far as the remaining schedule, I also calculated that UofM has a slightly easier schedule going forward. If I map MSU's Kenpom data onto UofM's schedule (or vice versa) UoM has about a 0.23 higher expected win total and 7% better odds to in the Big Ten.
MSU is now ranked just ahead of Michigan in Kenpom, which is why MSU now has a ~ half game / 12% edge. It has a dead heat before the weekend, so the OSU win was obviously huge.
MSU has, for now, climbed slightly ahead of UofM with about a half-game lead in expected value of wins (the sum of the projected probability of victory for all games). As for the probability to win the Big Ten (including possible ties). I have this:
Once again, this assumes that MSU (and all teams) continue to play at the average level that they have displayed so far this year.
As far as the remaining schedule, I also calculated that UofM has a slightly easier schedule going forward. If I map MSU's Kenpom data onto UofM's schedule (or vice versa) UoM has about a 0.23 higher expected win total and 7% better odds to in the Big Ten.
MSU is now ranked just ahead of Michigan in Kenpom, which is why MSU now has a ~ half game / 12% edge. It has a dead heat before the weekend, so the OSU win was obviously huge.
