Honestly, there is not a lot of new information here, but MSU is definitely entering the area where a 17-3 record is not just possible, but probable. Based on this analysis (which again is just a derivative of Kenpom data), MSU now has about a full game lead on Michigan in expected win total. This is purely based on MSU advantage in Kenpom adjusted margin. Basically, Kenpom's numbers suggest that MSU is a full game better than Michigan right now. The schedules right now are a dead heat in the last 14 games
Also of note is that despite Maryland's 5-1 record and clear hold on 3rd place, Purdue is still a tick above them in expected wins. This is due in large part that Maryland's schedule is, by far, the toughest in the conference.
Here is the Championship matrix, which once again only considers the odds to at least tie for first place. MSU is up to almost 75% while Michigan is at 40%. Nobody else is over 2.2%. One of the Michigan schools is bound to blink in the next week or two, so it will be interesting to see how this table changes when they do. If MSU were to drop the game in Lincoln and if Michigan beats Wisconsin, the race is a dead heat again. We will know a lot more about both teams by January 31st.
Also of note is that despite Maryland's 5-1 record and clear hold on 3rd place, Purdue is still a tick above them in expected wins. This is due in large part that Maryland's schedule is, by far, the toughest in the conference.
Here is the Championship matrix, which once again only considers the odds to at least tie for first place. MSU is up to almost 75% while Michigan is at 40%. Nobody else is over 2.2%. One of the Michigan schools is bound to blink in the next week or two, so it will be interesting to see how this table changes when they do. If MSU were to drop the game in Lincoln and if Michigan beats Wisconsin, the race is a dead heat again. We will know a lot more about both teams by January 31st.
