Here is the updated Big Ten win matrix for 01/20. With MSU's win over Nebraska, and UofM's loss in Madison, MSU's lead in expected wins in now over 2 games. Also, Indiana and Ohio State are drifting into the "bubble trouble" area.
Here is the updated Big Ten Title matrix. I peg MSU's odds at over 85%, with UofM now at 20% and fading. Maryland and Purdue are hanging around at just below 5% each. Also, the odds of a MSU-UofM tie are only 10%.
Once again, these numbers are a extrapolation of Kenpom's projected point spreads. I think that I use a different algorithm to calculate win probability based on point spread, so my probabilities differ very slightly for his (but I think my numbers might actually be more accurate).
Also, for what's is worth, I modified my calculations this time to be more of a "Monte Carlo" style simulation rather than a simplified brute force calculation. I think the title odds are a bit more accurate. MSU is pushing 90% using the other method.
Enjoy!
Here is the updated Big Ten Title matrix. I peg MSU's odds at over 85%, with UofM now at 20% and fading. Maryland and Purdue are hanging around at just below 5% each. Also, the odds of a MSU-UofM tie are only 10%.
Once again, these numbers are a extrapolation of Kenpom's projected point spreads. I think that I use a different algorithm to calculate win probability based on point spread, so my probabilities differ very slightly for his (but I think my numbers might actually be more accurate).
Also, for what's is worth, I modified my calculations this time to be more of a "Monte Carlo" style simulation rather than a simplified brute force calculation. I think the title odds are a bit more accurate. MSU is pushing 90% using the other method.
Enjoy!
