What can I say? Another day, another road beat-down (after a fashion) and another bump in MSU's chances to hang a banner. Here is the updated Big Ten win matrix:
MSU's lead over Michigan is now over 3 full games in expected value, and 18-2 is now the most likely projected record. If you look at the remaining games, the second most likely remaining loss in this Sunday in West Lafayette. If MSU wins there, it's over folks (barring a season-changing injury or something of that nature). The projected win-or-tie numbers agree:
These are just silly numbers for late January, but that is where we are. As for a few other numbers that I crunched:
Odds of an MSU out-right title: 84%
Odds of an MSU-UofM tie: 6%
Odds of a UofM out-right title: 4.5%
Odds of an MSU-Purdue tie: 3%
Finally, here is the trend in Big Ten expected wins since late December for the Top Tier of the Big Ten.
Enjoy!
MSU's lead over Michigan is now over 3 full games in expected value, and 18-2 is now the most likely projected record. If you look at the remaining games, the second most likely remaining loss in this Sunday in West Lafayette. If MSU wins there, it's over folks (barring a season-changing injury or something of that nature). The projected win-or-tie numbers agree:
These are just silly numbers for late January, but that is where we are. As for a few other numbers that I crunched:
Odds of an MSU out-right title: 84%
Odds of an MSU-UofM tie: 6%
Odds of a UofM out-right title: 4.5%
Odds of an MSU-Purdue tie: 3%
Finally, here is the trend in Big Ten expected wins since late December for the Top Tier of the Big Ten.
Enjoy!
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