As promised, here is the detailed update on the Big Ten race at the (sort of) mid-point of the season. I realize now that last night I did not manually correct Purdue's kenpom data, so their odds improved a bit over last night's rough update:
The bottom line is still the same. MSU has about a 1.5 game lead over UofM in expected wins, and Purdue is only a half game back of Michigan. Basically, MSU is the slightly better team with a better back-end schedule, based these metrics. MSU has a 40% chance to go 18-2 or better and a 74% chance to get to at least 17-3.
As for the odds to win or tie for 1st place:
MSU's odds remain very high, but certainly are down from the ~95% number from late last week. Of course, losing at Purdue doesn't help, and Michigan actually won a road game in convincing fashion, which boosted their numbers back into the "dream is not dead yet" realm. Purdue is a legit 3rd contender, but their odds are maybe not as great as one would expect.
For a little more detail:
Odds of a solo MSU title: 60%
Odds of a MSU / UofM tie: 14%
Odds of a Michigan solo title: 15%
Odds of a Purdue solo title: 4%
Finally, here is the trend in expected win total for the Top Tier of the Big Ten:
From the MSU vs. UofM perspective, the numbers are right back where they were after MSU won at Nebraska (and before UofM lost at Wisconsin). But, Purdue is clearly making a charge. Wisconsin has also now nosed in front of Maryland.
As for the rest of the Big Ten:
That is all for now. Enjoy!
The bottom line is still the same. MSU has about a 1.5 game lead over UofM in expected wins, and Purdue is only a half game back of Michigan. Basically, MSU is the slightly better team with a better back-end schedule, based these metrics. MSU has a 40% chance to go 18-2 or better and a 74% chance to get to at least 17-3.
As for the odds to win or tie for 1st place:
MSU's odds remain very high, but certainly are down from the ~95% number from late last week. Of course, losing at Purdue doesn't help, and Michigan actually won a road game in convincing fashion, which boosted their numbers back into the "dream is not dead yet" realm. Purdue is a legit 3rd contender, but their odds are maybe not as great as one would expect.
For a little more detail:
Odds of a solo MSU title: 60%
Odds of a MSU / UofM tie: 14%
Odds of a Michigan solo title: 15%
Odds of a Purdue solo title: 4%
Finally, here is the trend in expected win total for the Top Tier of the Big Ten:
From the MSU vs. UofM perspective, the numbers are right back where they were after MSU won at Nebraska (and before UofM lost at Wisconsin). But, Purdue is clearly making a charge. Wisconsin has also now nosed in front of Maryland.
As for the rest of the Big Ten:
That is all for now. Enjoy!
