After the train-wreck that was last night's game, here is the updated win projection matrix, derived from Kenpom efficiency data:
The trend in expected wins is shown here. It's not great...
and the odds to win or tie for the Big Ten title are shown here:
So, despite the very bad loss last night, MSU is still the mathematical favorite, with about a half game lead on Purdue and a full game lead on Michigan. As for the other calculations:
Odds of a solo MSU Title: 36%
Odds of a solo Purdue Title: 18%
Odds of a MSU/Purdue tie: 15%
Odds of a solo UofM Title: 14%
Odds of a MSU/UofM tie: 11%
But, this is all just math, and this math assumes that MSU (and all other teams) will play at their average level going forward. MSU played well below average last night. Is this a blip or is this a trend? That is the question. That is frankly the only question.
There is plenty of reason to think that it is a trend. The team seems to be hitting a wall. The game on Tuesday worries me. But, I think that we also have to consider that we watched this team play extremely well in January, without Josh Langford. The team has it in them. That has been demonstrated. The fact that they played like crap yesterday does not mean that they will play like crap for the rest of time. This team still has a lot of wins left in them.
Furthermore, if you look at the actual projected wins, MSU is expected to lose two more games. If we look at the schedule, there are tough games left at Michigan, at Wisconsin, vs. Michigan, and at Indiana. If MSU can get back to a reasonable level of play, there is no reason to not split those 4. That seems doable. But, you can't blow a game like at Illinois.
Will 16-4 be enough to share the Big Ten title? It certainly might be. While Purdue especially has a very manageable schedule, they still have to go to Maryland and they could certainly have another game like they did at Penn State this week. Teams have bad games. It happened to MSU this week. It could happen to Purdue and Michigan next week.
But, probability is not destiny. This team actually needs to find regain their mojo, and there is no mathematical formula to find that or fix that. Only time will tell.
As a footnote, here are the projected win trend for the rest of the Big Ten.
Enjoy!
The trend in expected wins is shown here. It's not great...
and the odds to win or tie for the Big Ten title are shown here:
So, despite the very bad loss last night, MSU is still the mathematical favorite, with about a half game lead on Purdue and a full game lead on Michigan. As for the other calculations:
Odds of a solo MSU Title: 36%
Odds of a solo Purdue Title: 18%
Odds of a MSU/Purdue tie: 15%
Odds of a solo UofM Title: 14%
Odds of a MSU/UofM tie: 11%
But, this is all just math, and this math assumes that MSU (and all other teams) will play at their average level going forward. MSU played well below average last night. Is this a blip or is this a trend? That is the question. That is frankly the only question.
There is plenty of reason to think that it is a trend. The team seems to be hitting a wall. The game on Tuesday worries me. But, I think that we also have to consider that we watched this team play extremely well in January, without Josh Langford. The team has it in them. That has been demonstrated. The fact that they played like crap yesterday does not mean that they will play like crap for the rest of time. This team still has a lot of wins left in them.
Furthermore, if you look at the actual projected wins, MSU is expected to lose two more games. If we look at the schedule, there are tough games left at Michigan, at Wisconsin, vs. Michigan, and at Indiana. If MSU can get back to a reasonable level of play, there is no reason to not split those 4. That seems doable. But, you can't blow a game like at Illinois.
Will 16-4 be enough to share the Big Ten title? It certainly might be. While Purdue especially has a very manageable schedule, they still have to go to Maryland and they could certainly have another game like they did at Penn State this week. Teams have bad games. It happened to MSU this week. It could happen to Purdue and Michigan next week.
But, probability is not destiny. This team actually needs to find regain their mojo, and there is no mathematical formula to find that or fix that. Only time will tell.
As a footnote, here are the projected win trend for the rest of the Big Ten.
Enjoy!
