As I mentioned on Sunday morning, there was little movement overall since the last update, as the weekend games went essentially according to chalk. Here is the updated win matrix:
Since both Purdue and Michigan avoided an a mild upset, they are now both more likely to finish at or above 16 wins. MSU's expected wins are still just above 15, but there is less than a game separation between the 3 teams. In graphical form, the trend for the top of the Big Ten is shown here:
Maryland's road win at Nebraska helped to boost their expected win total, but the other 4 teams just edged up slightly. As for the odds to win/tie for the regular season title:
Again, not a big change. Purdue still has the edge. As for the other relevant stats:
Odds of a solo Purdue title: 32%
Odds of a solo UofM title: 23%
Odds UofM / Purdue tie: 18%
Odds of an MSU / Purdue tie: 13%
Odds of an MSU solo title: 12%
Odds of an MSU / UofM tie: 10%
But, these numbers WILL change a lot on Tuesday night, as MSU visits Wisconsin and Purdue goes to Maryland. Michigan is on the road at Penn State as well, and you never know... But, if we assume that the Wolverines do win, there are still 4 possible outcomes of the other two big games. I ran a couple of "what-if" scenarios, and here is approximately how the percentages to win the Big Ten will shift depending on those outcomes. This does not take into account the change in the Kenpom data as a result of these games, but these numbers should be close:
In the best case for MSU, (an MSU win and a Purdue loss), the Spartans are right back in the mix with a 50-50 shot to win a share of the title. If Purdue wins in College Park, however, their odds go up to 70%+ and realistically they just about have at least a share of the title locked up. If both MSU and Purdue lose, this is obviously the best case for Michigan, although their odds would only rise to about 60%. If anything, this is simply an indication of the level of challenge that they have down the stretch. Also of note is that is MSU beats Wisconsin, the Badgers are basically out.
I think it is safe to say that Tuesday night is the single biggest date on the Big Ten calendar this year to date.
For completeness, here are the other two expected win trend charts for the rest of the conference:
Enjoy!
Since both Purdue and Michigan avoided an a mild upset, they are now both more likely to finish at or above 16 wins. MSU's expected wins are still just above 15, but there is less than a game separation between the 3 teams. In graphical form, the trend for the top of the Big Ten is shown here:
Maryland's road win at Nebraska helped to boost their expected win total, but the other 4 teams just edged up slightly. As for the odds to win/tie for the regular season title:
Again, not a big change. Purdue still has the edge. As for the other relevant stats:
Odds of a solo Purdue title: 32%
Odds of a solo UofM title: 23%
Odds UofM / Purdue tie: 18%
Odds of an MSU / Purdue tie: 13%
Odds of an MSU solo title: 12%
Odds of an MSU / UofM tie: 10%
But, these numbers WILL change a lot on Tuesday night, as MSU visits Wisconsin and Purdue goes to Maryland. Michigan is on the road at Penn State as well, and you never know... But, if we assume that the Wolverines do win, there are still 4 possible outcomes of the other two big games. I ran a couple of "what-if" scenarios, and here is approximately how the percentages to win the Big Ten will shift depending on those outcomes. This does not take into account the change in the Kenpom data as a result of these games, but these numbers should be close:
In the best case for MSU, (an MSU win and a Purdue loss), the Spartans are right back in the mix with a 50-50 shot to win a share of the title. If Purdue wins in College Park, however, their odds go up to 70%+ and realistically they just about have at least a share of the title locked up. If both MSU and Purdue lose, this is obviously the best case for Michigan, although their odds would only rise to about 60%. If anything, this is simply an indication of the level of challenge that they have down the stretch. Also of note is that is MSU beats Wisconsin, the Badgers are basically out.
I think it is safe to say that Tuesday night is the single biggest date on the Big Ten calendar this year to date.
For completeness, here are the other two expected win trend charts for the rest of the conference:
Enjoy!
