Here is a quick hitting analysis. I had a suspicion about something and decided to run some numbers. I tweeted about this as well, but I will share that insight here:
Does it seem like there are fewer elite teams this year in college hoops? Based on Kenpom data, the answer is yes. This chart compares the Top 25 Kenpom ranked teams' efficiency margins on Jan. 10 of the last three seasons. There is a big drop around team No. 8 or 9.
Basically, the No. 9 team in 2023 would be about a 2-point underdog (40% chance to win) on a neutral court to the No. 9 team over the past two years. The trend continue down to roughly team No. 40 (right where MSU is at), where the data evens out.
If this trend holds, this suggests that the No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, and maybe No. 6 seeds in the NCAA tournament might be a bit weaker than usual. It could also mean a potential easier path for the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. It is certainly something to watch.
Does it seem like there are fewer elite teams this year in college hoops? Based on Kenpom data, the answer is yes. This chart compares the Top 25 Kenpom ranked teams' efficiency margins on Jan. 10 of the last three seasons. There is a big drop around team No. 8 or 9.
Basically, the No. 9 team in 2023 would be about a 2-point underdog (40% chance to win) on a neutral court to the No. 9 team over the past two years. The trend continue down to roughly team No. 40 (right where MSU is at), where the data evens out.
If this trend holds, this suggests that the No. 3, No. 4, No. 5, and maybe No. 6 seeds in the NCAA tournament might be a bit weaker than usual. It could also mean a potential easier path for the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. It is certainly something to watch.
