Ideally, I would issue a more formal update with an article, but the last week has been a little crazy for me. I am continuing to update the data/stats tracker every day or two depending on the Big Ten schedule. Here is where MSU stands heading into tonight's game at Minnesota.
With the Spartans' wins over Michigan and Maryland, Michigan State sits at 6-5 in the Big Ten standings in a tie with Northwestern and a half-game ahead of Nebraska. This is essentially exactly where the math has projected the Spartans will finish for a while now. The schedule has finally eased up enough to allow the actual record to catch up to the math.
Michigan State continues to be quite unlucky (-1.27 games) but that number has improved by over half a game since mid-January. Ohio State (-2.31) and Michigan (-1.90) are now much less lucky. Northwestern's luck (+1.82) also took a hit thanks to the Wildcats' loss to Minnesota and Purdue over the past two games. Nebraska (+0.60) also picked us losses to Illinois and Maryland.
Overall, this combination of events has allowed Michigan State (11.92) to pass both Northwestern (11.16) and Nebraska (11.03) in expected wins. The Spartans are once again favored to claim the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. That said, the overall odds still say that a single bye in the BTT (56%) is slightly more likely than earning a top four seed (44%). Michigan State would be favored over both Northwestern and Nebraska on a neutral court (by about 4.5 points) but the Wildcats and especially the Huskers have much easier remaining schedules (by roughly a half game.)
The next four games, starting with tonight's game in Minneapolis, will tell us a lot about where this team will finish. The next four games (at Minnesota, versus Illinois, at Michigan and at Penn State) represent four of the five toughest games remaining (with the Purdue game being No. 1 with a bullet). That said, based on projected spreads, none of the next four games are as tough as the five Big Ten games that the Spartans lost with the exception of the home loss to Wisconsin. In this four-game span, the expected win total is just 2.65. If Michigan State can win three of the four, they are in great shape to finish at 12-8 or better. A 2-2 record would mean 11-9 might be the ceiling.
Overall, Michigan State's metrics remain very strong at No. 17 in Kenpom overall and in the top 30 of both offense and defense. As of Monday there were only 12 teams with this type of "championship resume." Michigan State is one of them. If the Spartans can win the next two... things will be looking up substantially.
With the Spartans' wins over Michigan and Maryland, Michigan State sits at 6-5 in the Big Ten standings in a tie with Northwestern and a half-game ahead of Nebraska. This is essentially exactly where the math has projected the Spartans will finish for a while now. The schedule has finally eased up enough to allow the actual record to catch up to the math.
Michigan State continues to be quite unlucky (-1.27 games) but that number has improved by over half a game since mid-January. Ohio State (-2.31) and Michigan (-1.90) are now much less lucky. Northwestern's luck (+1.82) also took a hit thanks to the Wildcats' loss to Minnesota and Purdue over the past two games. Nebraska (+0.60) also picked us losses to Illinois and Maryland.
Overall, this combination of events has allowed Michigan State (11.92) to pass both Northwestern (11.16) and Nebraska (11.03) in expected wins. The Spartans are once again favored to claim the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. That said, the overall odds still say that a single bye in the BTT (56%) is slightly more likely than earning a top four seed (44%). Michigan State would be favored over both Northwestern and Nebraska on a neutral court (by about 4.5 points) but the Wildcats and especially the Huskers have much easier remaining schedules (by roughly a half game.)
The next four games, starting with tonight's game in Minneapolis, will tell us a lot about where this team will finish. The next four games (at Minnesota, versus Illinois, at Michigan and at Penn State) represent four of the five toughest games remaining (with the Purdue game being No. 1 with a bullet). That said, based on projected spreads, none of the next four games are as tough as the five Big Ten games that the Spartans lost with the exception of the home loss to Wisconsin. In this four-game span, the expected win total is just 2.65. If Michigan State can win three of the four, they are in great shape to finish at 12-8 or better. A 2-2 record would mean 11-9 might be the ceiling.
Overall, Michigan State's metrics remain very strong at No. 17 in Kenpom overall and in the top 30 of both offense and defense. As of Monday there were only 12 teams with this type of "championship resume." Michigan State is one of them. If the Spartans can win the next two... things will be looking up substantially.
