It all comes down to this. Michigan State and Notre Dame, with seasons on the line. If either team loses, its season is over with zero chance of making the NCAA Tournament. MSU always needed a win to keep its season alive but there was a slim chance ND could have made the tournament even with a loss this weekend. However, now that ND has dropped below the cutoff (14), neither team can extend its season with a loss.
Currently, MSU's chances to make the tournament are at 13%. 10 of that is given to get in on rank alone and 3 to win the conference tournament. In fact, the best-case scenario for Michigan State is to win today (which it obviously controls) and for Penn State to win. That scenario would send Penn State to Minnesota and MSU to Ann Arbor, where the Spartans have a much better chance. In fact, I thought MSU should've won that game earlier this season at Yost. I don't think Michigan is that good, or that deep. Partly because Erik Portillo has been a disaster for Michigan. He was leaving all sorts of rebounds all over the ice. MSU should've buried some of those. Plus, three games against Michigan were decided by only one point, including the neutral-site game in Detroit.
By contrast, MSU has not convinced me at all that it can compete with Minnesota. Some teams have been able to beat them, but MSU is just prone to mistakes and Minnesota knows exactly how to make teams pay. Either way, ending up in Minneapolis is not ideal.
If, theoretically, Michigan State can beat Michigan in this dream scenario, its tournament chances increase to 78%.
Currently, MSU's chances to make the tournament are at 13%. 10 of that is given to get in on rank alone and 3 to win the conference tournament. In fact, the best-case scenario for Michigan State is to win today (which it obviously controls) and for Penn State to win. That scenario would send Penn State to Minnesota and MSU to Ann Arbor, where the Spartans have a much better chance. In fact, I thought MSU should've won that game earlier this season at Yost. I don't think Michigan is that good, or that deep. Partly because Erik Portillo has been a disaster for Michigan. He was leaving all sorts of rebounds all over the ice. MSU should've buried some of those. Plus, three games against Michigan were decided by only one point, including the neutral-site game in Detroit.
By contrast, MSU has not convinced me at all that it can compete with Minnesota. Some teams have been able to beat them, but MSU is just prone to mistakes and Minnesota knows exactly how to make teams pay. Either way, ending up in Minneapolis is not ideal.
If, theoretically, Michigan State can beat Michigan in this dream scenario, its tournament chances increase to 78%.
