ICYMI, the Iowa Hawkeyes have had a tough week. On Wednesday, they suffered a loss to Eastern Illinois at home by 9 points.
Stuff happens, right? Well, not stuff like this, at least not very often:
That's right Iowa did not just lose, they lost as a 31.5-point favorite, and that is essentially unprecedented.
The database that I have stretches back to 2004 and the biggest upset on record is Chicago State (+29.5) over Notre Dame in 2018.
To put things into perspective, the average No. 16 seed is usually between a 20 and 25 point underdog in the Big Dance. That translates into about a 0.5% to 2% chance of an upset. The fact that only one win from a No. 16 seed has been observed in a little over 100 attempts therefore totally tracks. But Iowa's upset loss is FAR less likely. In fact, UMBC's upset of UVA was roughly 25 times MORE likely than Eastern Illinois' win over Iowa.
The odds of these low-probably events are tricky to calculate, but my math suggests that Iowa's loss was a 1-in-1,000 type of event. My database suggests that there are roughly 16 games per year with a spread over 30 points. They are not that common. So... one would expect to see one upset of this magnitude in a 60-year span. The fact that this is the only upset on the record in the past 30 years therefore totally tracks. We likely will not see another one in our lifetime.
Great job, Iowa!
Stuff happens, right? Well, not stuff like this, at least not very often:
That's right Iowa did not just lose, they lost as a 31.5-point favorite, and that is essentially unprecedented.
The database that I have stretches back to 2004 and the biggest upset on record is Chicago State (+29.5) over Notre Dame in 2018.
To put things into perspective, the average No. 16 seed is usually between a 20 and 25 point underdog in the Big Dance. That translates into about a 0.5% to 2% chance of an upset. The fact that only one win from a No. 16 seed has been observed in a little over 100 attempts therefore totally tracks. But Iowa's upset loss is FAR less likely. In fact, UMBC's upset of UVA was roughly 25 times MORE likely than Eastern Illinois' win over Iowa.
The odds of these low-probably events are tricky to calculate, but my math suggests that Iowa's loss was a 1-in-1,000 type of event. My database suggests that there are roughly 16 games per year with a spread over 30 points. They are not that common. So... one would expect to see one upset of this magnitude in a 60-year span. The fact that this is the only upset on the record in the past 30 years therefore totally tracks. We likely will not see another one in our lifetime.
Great job, Iowa!
