Now that the rosters for next fall are coming into focus, it looks like both Duke and Michigan State are going to enter next season as top five teams. Duke will face Michigan State on Nov. 14 as a part of the Champion's Classic in Chicago. It should be a great game and a great measuring stick for both programs. I can't tell you today which team will win, but I am wanted to put this down on the record:
I do not believe in Duke, at all, under Jon Scheyer in the long run. If they were a stock, I will be calling for a strong sell.
Duke may enter the season as the No. 1 team in the country. Good for them. I have seen the ratings of their incoming freshman. That looks nice too... but honestly I don't care one bit. At all. I don't expect them to finish the season in the top 10 and maybe not the top 25. They will obviously still be competitive. They might even beat MSU by double-digits in November, but in the long run, now is the time to jump off the Blue Devil bandwagon.
I said the same thing about UNC last year. They started the season at No. 1. I thought that they would still be a Top-25 caliber team. I wound up being much worse than even I expected.
In the college game, coaching is extremely important. Coaches like Coack K, Roy Williams, Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo, John Calipari, Jay Wright, Bill Self, etc. are very, very hard to find. Some of that skill you can pass along through mentorship, but I would argue that maybe 60-70% or more is simply innate stuff that you are either born or not, and 99.99999% of all humanity is simply not born with it. The odds that Jon Scheyer just so happens to be "that guy" are astronomically small.
I also have a theory that sometimes a new coach can take over a veteran team (who was coached by the previous administration) add a little different perspective, and have the team looks better, at least for a season (or maybe even two in rare cases). I think about Kevin Ollie at UConn, Hubert Davis at UNC, and maybe even Juwan Howard at Michigan. They might look good for a year or two, but after that "reality" sets in. In Scheyer's first year, he played in a historically weak ACC, earned a No. 5 seed in March and couldn't even beat an injured, Rick Barnes-coached team to get out of the first weekend. That is NOT a great start. I don't expect to see a major improvement next year.
I could be wrong. I have been before. But, I have been right an awful lot before as well. I think that I am right on this one.
Honestly speaking, this could be Coach Izzo and Michigan State's time to shine. A lot of the names that I listed above are already out of the game. Kentucky has been on the struggle bus recently, and Bill Self... remains Bill Self. He is fine, but not terrifying. If we add to the pot the impact of NIL and the transfer portal and all of a sudden, the playing field gets leveled even more. Out of the smoke, Coach Izzo brings a roster to the 2023-24 season that includes both seasoned (and proven) veterans AND highly skilled freshman? Be afraid college basketball world, be very afraid.
At least that is what I see from where I sit here in mid-April. Enjoy the off season.
Signed, Paul (Dr. Green and White) your Chief Optimism Officer.
I do not believe in Duke, at all, under Jon Scheyer in the long run. If they were a stock, I will be calling for a strong sell.
Duke may enter the season as the No. 1 team in the country. Good for them. I have seen the ratings of their incoming freshman. That looks nice too... but honestly I don't care one bit. At all. I don't expect them to finish the season in the top 10 and maybe not the top 25. They will obviously still be competitive. They might even beat MSU by double-digits in November, but in the long run, now is the time to jump off the Blue Devil bandwagon.
I said the same thing about UNC last year. They started the season at No. 1. I thought that they would still be a Top-25 caliber team. I wound up being much worse than even I expected.
In the college game, coaching is extremely important. Coaches like Coack K, Roy Williams, Rick Pitino, Tom Izzo, John Calipari, Jay Wright, Bill Self, etc. are very, very hard to find. Some of that skill you can pass along through mentorship, but I would argue that maybe 60-70% or more is simply innate stuff that you are either born or not, and 99.99999% of all humanity is simply not born with it. The odds that Jon Scheyer just so happens to be "that guy" are astronomically small.
I also have a theory that sometimes a new coach can take over a veteran team (who was coached by the previous administration) add a little different perspective, and have the team looks better, at least for a season (or maybe even two in rare cases). I think about Kevin Ollie at UConn, Hubert Davis at UNC, and maybe even Juwan Howard at Michigan. They might look good for a year or two, but after that "reality" sets in. In Scheyer's first year, he played in a historically weak ACC, earned a No. 5 seed in March and couldn't even beat an injured, Rick Barnes-coached team to get out of the first weekend. That is NOT a great start. I don't expect to see a major improvement next year.
I could be wrong. I have been before. But, I have been right an awful lot before as well. I think that I am right on this one.
Honestly speaking, this could be Coach Izzo and Michigan State's time to shine. A lot of the names that I listed above are already out of the game. Kentucky has been on the struggle bus recently, and Bill Self... remains Bill Self. He is fine, but not terrifying. If we add to the pot the impact of NIL and the transfer portal and all of a sudden, the playing field gets leveled even more. Out of the smoke, Coach Izzo brings a roster to the 2023-24 season that includes both seasoned (and proven) veterans AND highly skilled freshman? Be afraid college basketball world, be very afraid.
At least that is what I see from where I sit here in mid-April. Enjoy the off season.
Signed, Paul (Dr. Green and White) your Chief Optimism Officer.
