The Pre-Snap Read: Michigan State vs Indiana
By Jim Comparoni
SpartanMag.com
East Lansing, Mich. - Mel Tucker’s ability to play sports psychologist will be tested again this week, perhaps more than at any time thus far in the season.
Tucker has been excellent in that area since the day he arrived at Michigan State. He’s instilled all the proven axioms, mantras and philosophies that he has picked up along the way during his decades of coaching and applied them to a rising Michigan State program. They’ve helped Michigan State build fast and get to this point. The Spartans are 6-0, ranked No. 10 in the nation and described this week by Sports Illustrated as the surprise team of the country.
Now, they have to deal with the rat poison. Tucker has been working to keep their blinders on, with tunnel vision on the present tasks.
It was a similar challenge earlier in the year after the big win over Miami. Michigan State passed that exam against Western Kentucky.
Now, it’s a similar test, but a more difficult one. The rat poison is stronger (“rat poison” is the term Nick Saban has used to describe the age-old challenge of dealing with hyped press clippings and pats on the back).
Tucker has these guys well-trained. They should be okay in the focus factor. And they need to be because Indiana is a dangerous opposite of Michigan State. Indiana was a preseason Top 20 team in the coaches poll for the first time since 1968.
Then Indiana was blown out by Iowa in a week one showdown. Then came a loss against current Top 5 team Cincinnati in a game that turned on a dime when Indiana linebacker and leader Micah McFadden was ejected for targeting.
Then Indiana lost two weeks ago to Penn State, 24-0, with QB Michael Penix hurting, struggling and knocked out against a Nittany Lions defense that is rising to become among the best in the county.
Indiana is not bad at all. The Hoosiers are a soiled 2-3. They have been hurt by injury. They are desperate to prove they are better than 2-3, desperate to get to 3-3, desperate to show they are still better than Michigan State.
Meanwhile, Tucker is prodding his team to remain hungry, and celebrating the notion that they are still desperate to improve. That’s the only way to be, regardless of your record. That’s what he says every week, and his players have bought in.
They had better.
But think about it this way: What would MSU’s record be if the Spartans had Indiana’ schedule? They may very well be 2-3 with losses to Iowa, Cincinnati and Penn State.
But what would Indiana be with MSU’s schedule? I think the Hoosiers would have had trouble beating Miami and Nebraska. Maybe 3-2. It would be tight.
And this game is going to be tight.
No one would have ever handicapped this game in the preseason as being an underdog situation for Indiana. But that’s what it is. And that will bring out the best in Indiana.
Throw in the home crowd in Bloomington, and that adds an edge to the underdog’s bite. Then throw in the trap game element for Michigan State, with tons of people talking about a potential 7-0 vs 7-0 showdown with Michigan on Oct. 30.
Rat poison, I tell ya.
Many intangible challenges are lined up against Michigan State here.
I’ll say the say the same thing I said prior to the opener against Northwestern: I’ll be pleasantly impressed if Michigan State can handle its business in these circumstances and keep rolling the way they’ve been rolling.
I didn’t pick Michigan State to beat Northwestern, because we knew very little about Michigan State.
But I did pick Michigan State to beat Miami. And I had Michigan State with an athletic edge over Rutgers.
If I were to pick Michigan State to beat Indiana, it would be by fewer confidence percentage points than I had for the Spartans against Miami or Rutgers. This has tough task written all over it for Michigan State, and if the Spartans make the type of game management mistakes that they had last week against Rutgers, they won’t win.
This matchup, from a psychological standpoint, reminds me a little of Northwestern vs Michigan State last year. Northwestern was the surprise team, the unbeaten team. Michigan State was the wounded-pride team. Michigan State had the potential to play decent physical football on a given day, and rose up to surprise a traveling Wildcat team.
This year, Indiana has more than potential to play good physical football on a given day, with its entire defensive 11 and its offensive line, and packs the capacity to surprise a traveling Spartan team. But it wouldn’t be that much of a surprise, based on the 3-point point spread.
One big difference: Michigan State was manhandled by Indiana last year. Despite MSU’s pretty record, there is no way the Spartans will overlook Indiana, not after the terrific performance the Hoosiers put on Michigan State last year. They won’t overlook Indiana, but that doesn’t mean they won’t come out flat. Sometimes you think you’re ready, and ready to try, but you unscrew the cap and there’s no fizz. It happens in football.
Bobby Bowden used to say every great team will have two games when the starch just isn’t there, and you have to fight through and figure out a way to get it done. Maybe Michigan State already had one of those games, against Nebraska. Maybe they aren’t due for another one for awhile. But be on alert for starch and fizz shortages in Bloomington on Saturday.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
Indiana is expected to be without quarterback Michael Penix. He went out with a separated shoulder at Penn State two weeks ago. Head coach Tom Allen says he is “week to week.”
Penix has been explosively splendid at times in his career, but he has not been good this year. He made bad decisions in losses to Iowa and Cincinnati. He had bad spells of accuracy issues against the Bearcats. He played well in beating Western Kentucky on a night when IU needed every yard and point.
Jack Tuttle (6-4, 212, R-Jr., San Marcos, Calif) will step in as a capable understudy. He started two games last year after Penix was lost to injury. He threw for 201 yards in the Outback Bowl last year.
Tuttle is a solid quarterback. He was a four-star recruit. He’s better than Rutgers’ Noah Vedral. Tuttle is kind of consistent. Penix is not. There is a chance that Indiana fans will come out of this game thinking they were better hands with Tuttle than they would have been with Penix. A chance.
Just because Penix is out does not mean Indiana’s quarterback fortunes are in worse shape.
In a 38-24 loss to Cincinnati, Penix was 17 of 40 with three interceptions. I’ll wait and see what Tuttle looks like on Saturday, but part of me thinks Indiana would have had a better chance to win that game with Tuttle. But, Indiana wouldn’t have beaten Western Kentucky without Penix. So it can cut both ways.
My point: Tuttle isn’t bad. He’s a decent possession type passer. He mixes in the run a little bit, on read keepers and scrambles. He isn’t as good a runner as Vedral or Payton Thorne, but he’s not far behind.
Tuttle isn’t bad, but I like Payton Thorne more. The QB edge is a comfortable weapon that Michigan State has been trotting out most weekends this year. Maybe every weekend (with the exception of the Nebraska game when Thorne battled through a bad ding).
MSU’s explosiveness at wide receiver and tailback are also difference-makers. Indiana is pretty good at wide receiver and running back, but the Hoosiers trail Michigan State in those skill position areas.
As long as Michigan State doesn’t repeat the game operational mistakes they had last week, and doesn’t lose the turnover or special teams battle, then the Spartans should be in decent shape to win this game.
Indiana’s defense is pretty good. Not as good as last year. They aren’t sacking the QB or forcing turnovers nearly like they did last year. Having a new defensive coordinator likely has something to do with that (as their old defensive coordinator is now running a defense at South Alabama which leads the nation in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt. That guy, 34-year-old Kane Wommack, was a wizard last year for the Hoosiers).
On offense, Michigan State will have a harder time running the ball than they did against Rutgers, but an easier time than they had against Nebraska.
Indiana’s defensive front is okay, it’s linebackers are quite good. Indiana’s secondary is quick and tackles well. They stay square. They aren’t slowish and leaky like Rutgers in the back seven.
Indiana played solidly on defense for most of the Penn State game, but the Nittany Lions just kind of won via a slow drip. One touchdown every quarter is pretty much how it worked. Indiana’s defense was decent, despite a slew of injuries, but it’s hard to hold Penn State to fewer than 24 points.
As for Indiana’s offense, they have had injuries at QB and WR (FSU transfer Matthews was good against Cincinnati but is out for the year).
[The Cincinnati game was MUCH closer than the score indicated by the way. Indiana was terrific in the first 25 minutes of that game and coulda, shoulda been up 17-0 or 21-0 or more by halftime. More on that later.]
The Indiana running game is fair to middling. The o-line and run game was excellent early against Cincinnati but tapered off. They didn’t get anything going on the ground against a very good Penn State defense.
Indiana has played against three of the best defenses in the country, in Top 10 teams Iowa, Penn State and Cincinnati. So their numbers are going to be a little dull.
They have that working knowledge in their database, and have had their pride crimped a little bit, now they’ve had a bye week. They’re getting off the mat angry and capable. It’s a dangerous opponent, just like Miami was for the Spartans, just like Rutgers was, just like Western Kentucky was. Michigan State has answered those psyschological and motivational challenges well. Now they have to do it against a notch-better team while Michigan State has more and more to protect and more to lose. Head coaching leadership is so important at a time like this, for both teams. Indiana has it. We’ve all seen that. And I’m quite sure Michigan State has it in very good fashion as well with Mel Tucker. He’s new to the head coaching gig, but I think he has the goods to prove that he can coach a team to handle success … because he’s a demanding guy and he knows what needs to be demanded, and the players respond well to his challenges and demands.
The Indiana passing game with Tuttle won’t be bad. But I don’t think he will be able to carry Indiana to victory by himself unless Michigan State helps with some of the operational errors we saw last week. Michigan State can’t afford to give away a possession like the Spartans nearly did last week at the end of the first half. Michigan State can’t afford to have a bad snap fumble inside its 20-yard line like last week. Michigan State can’t afford to have a delay of game on fourth-and-medium at the 35-yard line, costing the Spartans a decision as to whether to attempt a 52-yard field goal into the wind or go for it. Instead, the penalty forced Michigan State to punt, resulting in a touchback and 15 net yards from the original fourth-down line of scrimmage. Terrible.
Can’t do that in games in which you don’t have a great physical advantage. Last week, Michigan State had a physical and athletic advantage and a big edge at quarterback.
This week, Michigan State will have an athletic advantage in some areas. But Indiana, if healthy in the secondary, MIGHT stand a decent chance to put clamps on MSU’s wide receivers better than they’ve seen to this point in the season. Every yard and every first down is going to be contested. You can’t expect the 70-plus yard scoring shots this week like you saw against Rutgers. Need to be sharp in the procedural areas of the game. In that regard, last week’s problems were good for Michigan State. Might slap some sense into them.
Michigan State has been pretty good at drilling down into their weaknesses as this season has progressed. Now they need a sharp game from an operational standpoint.
APPLES TO APPLES
* Michigan State has better defensive tackles and defensive ends than Indiana.
* Indiana is better at both inside linebacker positions, and probably is a little better at slot nickel.
* Michigan State has a slight edge at the safety positions. Indiana’s are good, though. But MSU’s were great last week.
* Indiana has an edge at cornerback, based on experience and body of work but MSU’s cornerbacks have a good upside. Indiana’s excellent CBs have had injury problems and questions.
* Indiana’s pass defense is better than MSU’s between the 20-yard lines. But I think MSU’s pass defense might be better than Indiana’s in the red zone.
* Overall, I think MSU’s defense is a little better than Indiana’s, buoyed by the defensive line. But on a given day, Indiana’s defense can outplay MSU’s.
* Indiana’s offensive line looked quite good in the first half against Cincinnati and then kind of went away a little bit. Indiana’s o-line wasn’t terrible against a very good Penn State defensive front. Just not good enough.
I would say MSU’s offensive line is a bit better than Indiana’s, but I’m not married to that opinion.
Michigan State has an edge at quarterback and a big edge at running back and an edge at wide receiver. Indiana has an edge at tight end.
INTANGIBLES
* The way Indiana handled Michigan State last year, and with the Hoosiers having a bye week and maybe getting a little healthier, and with IU in circle-the-wagons mode, the home team Hoosiers are going to fully expect to win this game. Most athletes expect to win, of course, but Indiana’s confidence will be stronger than most times you see a 2-3 team face a 6-0, No. 10-ranked team. And for good reason. This matchup is a tight one.
* Indiana desperately wants to show that last year’s nice season wasn’t a one-hit wonder. And this is a program that has been nothing but occasional one-hit wonders. Last year, they were trying to win their first bowl game since 1991, and failed.
This year, they are trying to have a third consecutive winning season for the first time since the 1940s. Bill Mallory had winning seasons in four out of five years in the 1980s, but go look it up. They haven’t had three straight winning seasons since 1944, ’45 and ’46.
It’s kind of shocking and sobering when you go back over Indiana’s W-L record over the past 70 years. But they had a packed, loud house for that Cincinnati game. That’s a great credit to Indiana football fans who have had so little to cheer about over the generations. I follow this stuff closely and I don’t view Indiana as being a bad football program, but gosh. They HAVE been a terrible program. It doesn’t seem like their individual teams have been that gawd-awful over the last 30 years, but they … just … can’t … put … together … winning … seasons. I guess that’s the definition of a losing program. But they haven’t been that far off, all these years as they’ve toiled.
In the meantime, they have made nice improvement to Memorial Stadium. And fan interest has remained … somewhat interested.
And now this year, Top 20 in the preseason for the first time in the lifetime of most season ticket holders, and they are 2-3.
So any sign of life in this game, and you bet they are going to explode with support. And Tom Allen, one of the more boisterous sideline leaders in the nation, will be banging pots and pans to get them going and keep them going. This is huge for them.
Huge for Michigan State for other reasons. Michigan State has something to protect and much to play for. But Indiana does too.
Every game is a season.
INDIANA RESULTS
L, 34-6 at Iowa
W, 56-14 vs Idaho
L, 38-24 vs Cincinnati
W, 33-31 at Western Kentucky
L, 24-0 at Penn State
VS PENN STATE
* PSU was just too good. PSU systematically drove for a couple of TD drives. Stiffened for a fourth-down stoppage after a sudden change in the first quarter. And suddenly it was 14-0 in the second quarter.
* Indiana intercepted a Sean Clifford pass and returned it to the 12-yard line, down 7-0 in the first quarter. But Penn State stopped Indiana on a fourth-and-one tailback smash up the middle. That was as close as IU got. Penn State’s defense has been excellent all year.
Indiana’s Michael Penix began the game 1-of-10. He battled knee soreness. Then hurt his shoulder.
Penix found a rhythm midway through the game, then came the injury.
He finished 10 of 22 for 118 yards with 1 INT against Penn State.
Tuttle came in and was 6-of-12 for 77 yards in the fourth quarter.
But Penn State’s offense didn’t rip. PSU QB Sean Clifford was 17 of 33 for 178 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT.
PSU tailback Noah Cain rushed 11 times for 23 yards.
PSU RB Keyvone Lee capitalized on a well-blocked power for a 44-yard run. He finished with 74 yards on eight carries.
Overall, PSU rushed for 209 yards with QB Clifford rushing for 58 of them.
They didn’t put a hole in Indiana.
PSU out-gained Indiana 408-264. It was a slow-drip blowout.
VS CINCINNATI
Indiana completely controlled the first quarter against Cincinnati. Played good defense, good coverage, and ran the ball up the gut on the Bearcats.
The only negative was that QB Penix was inaccurate on three or four passes in the first quarter. Knowing the final score and the fact that Indiana ended up losing by double digits, I was kind of stunned by how good the Hoosiers looked in the first half of this game.
Indiana dominated most of the first half, however the Hoosiers were stuffed on a third-and-2 and then a fourth-and-1 QB sneak inside the 10-yard line when opting for a field goal and a 10-0 lead would have looked pretty good in hindsight. Indiana has not been good in short yardage in these losses.
Next possession, Indiana’s Penix was intercepted in the end zone on third-and-five from the 8-yard line.
Coulda, shoulda been up 13-0 or maybe 21-0 over Cincinnati with 7:23 left in the second quarter with a little different fortune on two plays.
Indiana looked excellent for a quarter and a half in that game. Like a Top 15 team.
Indiana managed to get a sack fumble, and cash in with a TD pass to RB Carr to go up 14-0 late in the first half. Cincinnati was fortunate it was just a two-score game at that point.
McFadden was called for targeting during a third-down incompletion with Indiana leading 14-0 with 4:04 to play in the first half. That kept Cincy’s offense on the field. They drove for a touchdown, then Penix threw another bad INT, which eventually cut it to 14-10 by halftime. The game completely changed when McFadden went out.
Indiana rallied to take a 21-17 lead with 3:54 left in the third quarter, but Cincy returned the ensuing kickoff for a TD, making it 24-21, Bearcats.
Indiana drove to the 2-yard line for first-and-goal with 8:40 left in the game. A TD and extra point would have given Indiana a 31-30 lead. But RB Baldwin (now in the transer portal) fumbled on FIRST AND GOAL AT THE 2! Indiana squandered points like crazy in this game.
A late interception return inside the IU 10-yard line inflated the final margin of victory.
Indiana out-gained Cincinnati 376-328. But Indiana had four turnovers, compared to two for Cincinnati.
INDIANA KEY INJURIES
QB Michael Pennix, doubtful.
WR D.J. Matthews is out. He had 13 catches in four games. FSU transfer. Good player. They miss him.
CB Tiawan Mullen was All-Big Ten last year. Unexpectedly missed the Penn State game after warming up. Tom Allen says he will be a gametime decision. I have a hunch he will play.
CB Reese Taylor is another good one. He missed portions of the PSU game with a lower leg injury. Allen says he is a gametime decision as well. My hunch says he plays. The bye week helps.
INDIANA STATS: DEFENSE
* Indiana is dead last in the Big Ten in scoring defense at 28.2 per game. (Michigan State is No. 6 at 19.3). (But look at Indiana’s opponents. Their defense is better than that stat).
* Indiana is No. 9 in the Big Ten in yards allowed per play. (Michigan State is No. 8.)
* Indiana is No. 11 in the Big Ten in yards allowed per rush at 4.1. (Michigan State is No. 5 at 3.3).
* Indiana is No. 5 in the Big Ten in yards allowed per pass attempt at 6.2. (Michigan State is No. 7 at 6.5).
INDIANA STATS: OFFENSE
* Indiana is No. 10 in the Big Ten in scoring offense at 23.8. (Michigan State is No. 3 at 36.7).
* Indiana is No. 12 in the Big Ten in offensive yards per play at 4.8. (Michigan State is No. 2 at 7.5).
* Indiana is No. 12 in rushing yards per attempt at 3.4. (Michigan State is No. 2 at 5.7).
* Indiana is No. 11 in yards per pass attempt at 6.2. (Michigan State is No. 3 at 9.8).
SIDE NOTES AND QUESTIONS
* I wonder a little bit about Indiana’s conditioning level. Indiana’s ground game and ground defense seemed to wilt in the fourth quarter against Cincinnati in 100-degree heat. Indiana’s ground offense and ground defense didn’t have the edge they enjoyed earlier in the game.
Indiana hasn’t finished games all that strong. Every team works hard on conditioning. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Michigan State demonstrates an edge in fourth quarter freshness in this game.
Tucker preaches that the team that keeps hitting the hardest for the longest will win. It becomes a mentality. Michigan State had it at Miami. Indiana will have a hard time matching Michigan State in that category in this game.
* I thought offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan called an excellent game in terms of play design and timing of calls despite the loss to Cincinnati. Sheridan is a former walk-on QB at Michigan and a guy who was a Pop Warner legend in the East Lansing area in the late 1990s when his dad was an assistant coach for Nick Saban.
INDIANA PERSONNEL
QB JACK TUTTLE (6-4, 212, R-Jr., San Marcos, Calif)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 104 in the nation and No. 16 in California.
* Signed with Utah. Transferred to Indiana after one year at Utah.
* In his first career start, last year at Wisconsin, he was 13-of-22 for 130 against the Badgers.
* In relief of Penix last year at Maryland, he was 5-of-5 for 31 yards.
* In a 26-20 loss to Mississippi in the Outback Bowl, he was 26-of-45 for 201 yards and rushed for 26 yards.
* I rewatched the Outback Bowl last night. He was a dinker and dunker in that game. He really relied on the now-graduated Whop Philyor as his binky in that game. He targeted Philyor a whopping 23 times in that game for 17 receptions, many of them on safe checkdowns after looking elsewhere first.
* Slides his feet pretty well in the pocket while keeping his shoulders square and his trigger cocked.
* Sometimes gets happy feet and drifts in the pocket away from his throw. That got him in trouble for an INT against Penn State.
* I haven’t seen a lot from him in terms of really gripping and ripping a 25-yard out or anything like that. Maybe he has that in him, but I’ve not seen it demonstrated yet.
His 76-yard TD pass to third-string TE against Idaho was a 20-yard crossing route, with yards after the catch. Not bad.
He’s a good, solid game manager type. Just because Penix is out, don’t assume that’s a game-ender for the Hoosiers. Like I said, there’s a chance he is a clean 15 for 25 or something like that in this game and Indiana wins and Hoosier fans come out of it thinking they were glad they had Tuttle in this game rather than Penix.
RUNNING GAME
Indiana rushed for a healthy 152 yards against Cincinnati’s well-respected defense (4.1 per carry).
Indiana was held to 69 yards rushing (24 carries) by Penn State.
Indiana tailback Stephen Carr rushed 25 times for 109 yards against WKU. When factoring in team losses and sacks, Indiana rushed for 134 yards on 39 carries (3.4 per) against Western Kentucky.
It was so long ago it barely means anything this week, but Indiana rushed 31 times for 77 yards against Iowa (2.4 per).
RB STEPHEN CARR (6-1, 215, Sr., Gardena, Calif.)
* USC transfer.
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 5 in California and No. 38 in the nation.
* His 118-yard game against Indiana was his first 100-yard rushing game since his freshman year at USC.
* Good size, good ability, not a great difference-maker from what I’ve seen. Breaks some tackles, as you would expect. Not a ton of agility. Not quite as good as the man he replaced, Stevie Scott, who left early for the NFL, but similar style.
* Not as good or dangerous, from what I’ve seen, as Rutgers’ Isaih Pacheco.
* Carr’s back-up was a good one, Tim Baldwin. But he entered the portal after the Penn State game.
* Now, two walk-ons are his primary back-ups.
Carr’s stats:
* vs Penn State: 15 carries, 50 yards.
* vs Cincinnati: 21 carries, 51 yards.
* vs Iowa: 19 carries, 57 yards.
* vs Idaho: 22 carries, 118 yards.
Last year at USC, he started three of six games. He rushed for 176 yards on the year on 46 carries (3.8 per) with two TDs. He caught 10 passes for 64 yards.
* He rushed for 81 yards on 11 carries against Arizona.
* For his career at USC, he rushed for 1,329 yards (5.0 per) with 12 TDs.
* He rushed for 396 yards as a junior in 2019 while starting one game.
* He rushed for 384 yards as a sophomore, with one start.
* In 2017, he rushed for 363 yards (5.6 per).
RB 22 DAVION ERVIN-POINDEXTER (5-11, 190, Jr., Merrilville, Ind.)
* Walk-on.
+ 37-yard run in the fourth quarter on third-and-seven surprise run with 10 minutes to go against Cincinnati. That was his only carry.
* He has eight carries in his career.
RECEIVERS
[WR D.J. Matthews is out for the year with an ACL. He was a transfer from Florida State. They needed him to make an impact. He was looking quite good prior to the injury against Western Kentucky. He had five catches for 120 yards against Cincinnati).
WR 3 TY FRYFOGLE (6-2, 205, Sr., Lucedale, Miss.)
* Third-team All-American last year.
* Big Ten Receiver of the Year last year.
* Last year against Michigan State, he had 11 catches for 20 yards and two TDs, including a 65-yard TD.
* But he did the same thing against Ohio State with seven catches for 218 yards and three TDs.
* He didn’t go pro for some reason and thus far has had just an okay season. He has had more than five catches in a game only once all year, and that was against Western Kentucky.
* Had three dropped passes against Cincinnati.
* Had 10 catches for 98 yards against WKU.
* Had five catches for 48 yards against Penn State, with a long of 27.
* Had five catches for 84 yards against Iowa.
* Had five catches for 29 yards against Idahao.
* Had only one catch for 13 yards against Cincinnati.
* Not sure what’s going on with him, he always has the potential to dominate a game.
WR 13 MILES MARSHALL (6-4, 212, Jr., Lilburn, Ga.)
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 90 in Georgia. Had offers from Vanderbilt, Virginia, Wake Forest, Purdue.
* The team’s fourth-leading receiver (third when not counting Matthews), with eight catches on the year.
+ Got open on an out-and-up against Penn State for a 34-yard gain in the second quarter. Maximum protection on that play.
Look for Indiana to try to repeat a double move deep shot like that at least once on Saturday. That was his only catch against PSU.
* Had five catches for 64 yards against WKU.
WR 18 Javon Swinton (6-2, 187, Soph., Stafford, Va.)
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 22 in Virginia.
* Had offers from Rutgers, South Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest.
* Has five catches for 61 yards on the year. .
* Had four catches for 52 yards n the Outback bowl.
- Failed to win a 50-50 ball on a deep fly route with 3:44 to go against Cincinnati in a 6-point game. Incomplete.
WR 10 David Ellis, 6-1, 214, Clinton Township (Mich.) Chippewa Valley
* Was a 5.5 three-star recruit, ranked No. 34 in Michigan.
* Was an October commitment over MAC schools.
* Has only one catch on the year for a loss of 1.
* Had 11 catches last year, and 16 in 2019.
* Had 16 rushes lats year for 61 yards. Is a former tailback.
TIGHT ENDS
TE 86 PEYTON HENDERSHOT (6-4, 254, Sr., North Salem, Ind.)
* Was a 5.4 two-star recruit, unranked.
* Had offers from MAC schools and Cincinnati.
* Was third-team All-Big Ten in each of the past two seasons.
* Big target, reliable, decent quickness. Terrific college tight end.
* Had seven catches for 100 yards against WKU, including a 26-yarder.
* Five catches for 88 yards against Penn State, including a 35-yarder.
+ 16-yard TD on counter boot negative drag vs Cincinnati.
MSU's LB and safety coverage vs the TE will be key in this game as Indiana's downfield passing with Tuttle likely won't be as aggressive as it would have been with Penix.
(TE 89 Matt Bjorson, 6-3, 241, Sr., Hinsdale, Ill.)
* Decent tight end, nice catch and run on a bootleg vs Cincy.
* Has only three catches on the year for 24 yards.
OFFENSIVE LINE
* Left side of the o-line quite good with double teams and zone blocking against Cincinnati.
* Not a great o-line, but I didn’t see any glaring weaknesses. Good, solid, Big Ten o-line. Similar to Michigan State.
LT 70 LUKE HAGGARD (6-7, 305, Sr., Petaluma, Calif)
* juco transfer.
* Was a 5.5 three-star juco recruit with offers from Oregon State, Fresno State, Nevada, UConn.
* Started four games last year for a team that led the Big Ten in fewest sacks allowed.
LG 56 MIKE KATIC (6-4, 312, Soph., Gibsonia, Pa.)
* 5.5 three-star recruit, ranked No. 18 in Pennsylvania.
* June commitment with offers from Boston College, Army, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, Louisville.
* Started four games last year.
C 72 DYLAN POWELL (6-3, 310, Grad., Hannibal, Mo.)
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 11 in Missouri.
* Signed with Stanford after taking official visits to Iowa State, Purdue, Virginia Tech.
* Grad transfer from Stanford.
* Started four games last year as a senior, opted to come back for one more.
* Started three games for Stanford in 2018.
RG 76 MATTHEW BEDFORD (6-6, 310, Jr., Cordova, Tenn.)
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 26 in Tennessee.
* Summer commitment with offers from Mississippi State and South Carolina.
* Pretty quick with the upper body when reacting to a rusher or combo-blocking out to a LB.
* Third-year starter.
* Indiana promoted him for the preseason Outland Trophy Watch List.
* Quick feet on a shovel power against Cincinnati.
* They don’t run power a lot, but he can move and deliver a blow when they do.
RT 77 CALEB JONES (6-8, 362, Sr., Indianapolis)
* Was a three-star recruit by Rivals.com. Ranked No. 12 in Indiana by ESPN.
* Also had offers from Illinois, Purdue, MACs.
* He’s so tall, though, that he doesn’t have to move much to swallow up pass rushers.
* Sometimes it might look like he’s moving slow but he still manages to stay wide enough on guys and can react inside. Usually. But he has some negative moments.
- Got belted backward kind of easily during a TFL late in the 1H against Cincinnati. Cincy’s DE just bull rushed into Jones’ inside pec and easily tossed him aside for the TFL.
- I wasn’t impressed with this guy Jones last year after seeing him allow three sacks in a short period of time against Penn State. Still has some balance/power issues in the pass rush but he has improved.
DEFENSIVE STYLE & CHARACTERISTICS
* Indiana was so good on defense last year. Better than the sum of its parts. They were tricky. They were shape-shifter. They were extremely multiple and hard to figure out with their coverages, but stayed on the same page. That led to sacks and interceptions - every week.
Last year, Indiana led the Big Ten in interceptions with 17. This year, second to last with only two on the year.
Last year, Indiana was No. 2 in the Big Ten in sacks, just one behind Iowa. This year, Indiana ranks dead last in the Big Ten in sack with seven.
They graduated a pretty good defensive tackle in Jerome Johnson, who had three sacks and is trying to bounce around as an NFL free agent.
But their sack totals were borne out of a balance of blitzing LBs and DBs. LB Micah McFadden led Indiana in sacks last year with six. Their team sack totals was a collective accumulation, not based on one or two d-line standouts. In other words, their talent was pretty good, but their coaching was great.
With the new coordinator, sacks and INTs have fallen off. I don’t think it’s a coincidence. I’m not saying the new coordinator isn’t good. I’m saying the previous one was difference-maker.
* McFadden is an outstanding pass rusher as a linebacker, usually up the middle, sometimes bending with a stunt.
* Indiana still tackles well. I noticed time after time players getting good wraps on guys, and some good physicality at times. Out of curiosity I checked Indiana’s PFF tackling grades. They were strong. Eleven Indiana players graded out at 75.0 or higher in tackling against Penn State. By known comparison (meaning, something you can gauge it by), Michigan State had only five players grade out at 75.0 or higher in tackling against Rutgers (Xavier Henderson, Angelo Grose, Chester Kimbrough, Michael Dowell and Drew Jordan).
[By the way, X Henderson tackled like a mad man at Rutgers. Not only did he tackle well, he did it at warp speed, with great angles, scraping and pursuing to shut off runs before they could get started. This was after Henderson had one of his poorer tackling performances against WKU. He really came back strong.]
* Last year, I noticed that Indiana was very good at arriving on time to take on blocks, defeat blocks with the correct shoulder, and keep everything square. They played as a true 11-man unit.
They aren’t a bad defense this year at all. But they don’t strike me as being as sharp and precise as they were last year. Last year, you could do how-to videos by using their defense.
A lot of the same guys are back. That’s why they were ranked high. Still good individuals, but they don’t have badass bashers on the d-line to put initial holes in people.
* With as often as Indiana blitzes linebackers, it seems like short curls, hooks and sit-down routes over the middle should be open for safe passage. But sometimes IU will give you that, if down and distance favors them.
* They will stem and shift at pre snap on the d-line. Mix that with what should be a loud home crowd and MSU’s o-line could get coaxed into some false starts. A lot of visiting teams in college football this year have struggled with crowd noise and playing on the road because no one had to do it last year.
* They do a lot of zone pressures. That’s when it’s a four-man rush, but someone from the back seven rushes the passer. It’s usually a linebacker rushing while a d-end, like 92 Bryant, drops into a short-area zone coverage.
RUSH DEFENSE
* Held Cincinnati to 118 yards on 36 carries. Cincy’s top tailback, J. Ford, had 66 yards on 20 carries.
DEFENSIVE PERSONNEL
DEFENSIVE LINE
* Interesting cast of transfers, some of whom were big-time recruits.
Overall, No. 10 is a pass rush threat. The DTs are solid, unspectacular. The d-line depth is okay, but doesn’t seem to be as many interchangeable parts as last year.
DE 10 RYDER ANDERSON (6-6, 266, Grad., Katy, Texas)
* Transfer from Mississippi.
* Was a 5.5 three-star recruit.
* Had offers from Arkansas, Colorado and C-USA’s.
* Has three sacks on the year and 29 tackles.
* Last year, he had 2.5 sacks and led Ole Miss in hurries.
* He is tall, rangy with extension vs the run.
* Excellent pass rush threat. Had a blind side sack and fumble against Cincinnati in the second quarter. Looked quick, lean, long and athletic on that play against a redshirt-freshman. Rip move.
* His athleticism allows him to drop into pass coverage nicely when they zone blitz.
(13 Jaren Handy 6-6, 255, Hattiesburg, Miss.)
* Transfer from Auburn.
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 135 in the nation. Also had official visits to Florida, Mississippi State and LSU.
* Had three tackles and one sack in two years at Auburn.
* A little lean and stiff, maybe like Michael Fletcher but I need to see more of this guy Handy. Looks intriguing, just haven't seen him enough.
(6 DE James Head, 6-5, 262, Sr., Miami)
* Was a 5.7 three-star recruit. Also had offers from Michigan State, Baylor, Nebraska, Oregon, Tennessee and others.
* Started seven games last year and had 17 tackles but has yet to play this year due to an undisclosed injury. Insiders say he is expected to return for this game.
DT 94 DEMARCUS ELLIOTT (6-4, 307, Garden City, Kan.)
* Transfer from Garden City CC.
* Was a 5.3 two-star recruit with offers from UMass and Tennessee Chattanooga.
* Third-year starter.
* As a sophomore in 2019 he had 35 tackles, including five TFLs.
+ Good closing quickness for a big ol’ dude.
(41 Beau Robbins 6-5, 260, Soph., Carmel, Ind.)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 5 in Indiana.
* Solid against double-teams.
* Did not see action in 2020 or ’19.
DT 99 WESTON KRAMER (6-2, 290, Grad., Naperville, Ill.)
* Grad transfer from Northern Illinois.
* Was Second-Team All-MAC last year.
* Average when two-gapping, doesn’t get penetration, but doesn’t get beat, however, he’s not great at using his hands to disengage.
(55 CJ Person, 6-3, 292, Soph., Montgomery, Ala.)
* Was a 5.5 three-star recruit, ranked No. 43 in Alabama. Also had offers from mid-majors.
BULL 92 ALFRED BRYANT (6-2, 250, Sr., Fresno, Texas).
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit. Also had offers from Arkansas, Cal, Colorado, Illinois, K-State and others.
* He is usually a stand-up DE. Solid player. Sturdy. Not necessarily explosive off the edge. He’s just kind of a guy.
* Has 1.5 TFLs on the year.
* Started three games at DE last year.
LINEBACKERS
* Their linebackers are excellent. To put it in familiar terms, 47 McFadden is a thicker, more experienced and faster (and taller) version of Cal Haladay.
His sidekick, 4 Cam Jones, is better than Quavaris Crouch. Jones isn’t as big, but he’s not small. He hits hard, and he’s more consistent and trustworthy than Crouch. He moves side-to-side while reading a little smarter and instinctively.
LB 47 MICAH McFADDEN
* Was a 5.4, two-star recruit.
* Had offers from Cobston College and mid-majors.
* Third-team All-America last year.
* Led the Big Ten in sacks last year.
* Good quickness when blitzing up the middle.
* Good sideline-to-sideline speed.
LB 4 CAM JONES (6-3, 224, Sr., Memphis)
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 26 in Tennessee.
* Also had offers from Tennessee, Memphis, Missouri and Wake Forest.
* He is a wrecking ball. He moves really well sideline to sideline, and bashes offensive linemen on his way to the ball carrier.
* Was Honorable Mention All-Big Ten last year. He’s better than that this year. One of the best LBs I’ve seen in the Big Ten this year.
* Led team in QB hits last year.
* Reads and gets downhill very quickly and with physicality.
HUSKY 9 MARCELINO McCRARY-BALL (6-0, 214, Sr., Roswell, Ga.)
* Was a 5.4, two-star recruit.
* Official visits to Tulane and Middle Tennessee State.
* Sixth year senior.
* Had a major injury prior to last season and missed a storybook year. Is driven to have a follow-up this year.
* Was Honorable Mention All-Big Ten in 2018.
* I haven’t focused in on him, but he hasn’t jumped off the screen this year. I don’t know if he has lost a step.
+ INT in the first quarter against Cincinnati. Five-man rush, with McFadden and Jones rushing as LBs, hurried the passer. McCrary-Ball with the tip drill INT.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
* They all play their angles well, and with quickness and physicality in coverage or as tackles. No weaknesses out here.
* Penn State WR Jahan Dotson, a 5-foot-11 guy who is being hyped as one of the top two or three WRs in the Big Ten, had eight catches for 84 yards with 2 TDs against Indiana.
* Starting CBs 2 Taylor and 3 Mullen will be gametime decisions in terms of health, according to Tom Allen.
CB 2 REESE TAYLOR (5-11, 185, Sr., Indianapolis)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 11 in Indiana.
* Summer commitment with offers from Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue, Iowa.
* Quality veteran player.
* Was fourth in the Big Ten in pass break-ups last year.
+ Was tested deep early by Cincinnati. Taylor ran with the receiver well, stacked him, in off man-to-man.
+ Good open field tackle inside the 5-yard line against Penn State in run support.
* Good tackler.
+ Decent job in press vs WR Dotson of Penn State on a deep shot on third-and-one. Decent jam, decent hip turn. Dotson is so good that he got a half step on him, but QB couldn’t connect on a difficult-angle pass. Good coverage. But Taylor pulled up a little gimpy at the end of the play and was helped off the field. He ended up missing about 30 snaps in that game.
* 41 snaps against Penn State.
(31 Bryant Fitzgerald 6-0, 208, Sr., Indianapolis)
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 7 in Indiana.
* Started eight games last year at Husky Back.
* Had three interceptions as a freshman in 2018.
* 35 snaps against Penn State, and graded out well.
CB 3 TIAWAN MULLEN (5-10, 180, Jr., Fort Lauderdale)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 43 in Florida.
* Also took official visits to Pitt and Nebraska.
* 2020 All-America.
* 2019, led Big Ten in pass break-ups and was honorable mention All-Big Ten as a freshman.
* Has been slowed by an injury.
* He warmed up in pads against PSU, but then the pads came off and he was a surprising scratch at game time due to a leg injury. If he was that close to playing two weeks ago, I would expect him to be fine two weeks later to play in this game, as long as he didn’t reinjure anything during practice.
- Terrific player but was beaten on a 19-yard go route for a TD by a 6-foot-2 WR for Cincinnati. Just out-rebounded by him. Can Michigan State replicate that? Tre Mosley can play big at times, but MSU’s biggest WRs have yet to break through - Keon Coleman, Christian Fitzpatrick, Ian Stewart.
(Noah Pierre, 5-11, 182, Jr., Hialeah, Fla.)
* Played 42 snaps against Penn State with Mullen out.
* Was a 5.4 two-star recruit.
(CB 23 Jaylin Williams, 6-0, 182, Sr., Memphis)
* Was a 5.5 three-star recruit, ranked No. 30 in Tennessee. Committed to Indiana over mid-majors.
* Was second-team All-Big Ten last year.
* Six career INTs.
* Is back from concussion protocol two weeks ago.
SS 1 DEVON MATTHEWS (6-2, 205, Sr., Jacksonville, Fla.)
* 5.4 two-star recruit who also took official visits to Cincinnati and UConn.
* Third-team All-Big Ten by coaches last year.
* Graded out No. 1 on the defense against Penn State with an 85.0 overall score. No one for Michigan State scored that high against Rutgers.
* He has missed games this year due to injury.
* Pretty good in run support, scraping across, active and fast.
FS 0 RAHEEM LAYNE (6-1, 200, Sr., Deland, Fla.)
* Was a 5.4 two-star recruit. Also had an official visit to Minnesota. Had offers from Iowa and Purdue.
* Graded out at a team-high 82.5 against Penn State.
* He missed the late stages of the Penn State game with a leg injury. Allen says he has been practicing this week and should be good to go.
+ Good pass break-up on third-and-6 vs Cincinnati in the second quarter. Really good job reading the QB’s eyes and converging toward the receiver before the ball was released.
+ INT vs Penn State in the first quarter playing the hook area in one of those confusing Indiana coverages, taking away a crossing route.
- Missed a tackle on a third-and-one in the second quarter against Penn State which got out for a big gain to the 4-yard line. Playing behind DT 99 Kramer who got stalemated by the PSU offensive guard on the play.
= Allowed an 8-yard TD to PSU WR Dotson on a slant and go. Great catch, up high. Not a lot Layne could have done in quarters coverage.
SPECIAL TEAMS
- Allowed a kickoff return for touchdown against Cincinnati.
* DJ Matthews had an 80-yard punt return for a TD against Idaho, but he’s out for the year with an injury.
* Reese Taylor was honorable mention All-Big Ten punt returner last year. Has four punt returns this year with a long of 15 yards.
ADD IT ALL UP
Difficult test with little margin for error for Michigan State.
If Michigan State is as sloppy as last week, they will get in severe trouble this week.
The replacement QB, Tuttle, might be more reliable than Penix right now.
As long as Michigan State avoids sloppy mistakes, the Spartans’ play-making edge at RB, WR and QB has a good chance to make the difference.
Indiana’s d-line is okay, and their LBs will slug for awhile. But I think MSU’s o-line can hold a narrow edge over the Indiana defensive front over the long haul.
Indiana’s secondary is good, especially when healthy, but not as tricky last year, and doesn’t have the pass rush it had last year. Thorne won’t have an easy day finding openings, but MSU’s play design has been good enough to get the job done in this part of the matchup - again by a narrow margin.
MSU’s d-line and defensive front should hold a slight edge over a decent Indiana o-line and decent Indiana RB/QB combination.
Indiana has talent at TE with Hendershot and at WR with Fryfogle, but MSU’s pass rush should continue to be a factor, and I like MSU’s pass defense in the red zone.
Indiana will land some blows. Michigan State has to make sure crowd noise doesn’t have an impact on false starts and delay of game penalties. We’ve seen more of those all over the country this year as teams have tried to get reacclimated to playing on the road.
Indiana’s crowd was great against Cincinnati. They still have some spirit. They’ll be oiled up for this one.
Tough game. Michigan State needs to be tough and sharp. Michigan State has an edge in play-making ability at the offensive skill positions, but the margin for error is slim. Indiana will be desperate, and capable.
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