I put together about 6,000 words on some of the key matchup areas, based on the short history of each team's season thus far.
I didn't include a player-by-player breakdown of the Hurricanes. I decided to end it at 6,000 words. I might include that later, possibly with some video shorts of examples of some of the Miami breakdowns on defense that need to be fixed for this game.
By Jim Comparoni
SpartanMag.com
East Lansing, Mich. - Cutting to the chase:
I thought Miami played better in its 44-13 loss to Alabama than it did in last week’s 25-23 victory over Appalachian State.
Miami was disorganized on defense against App State. I counted at least five play in run defense when a player or players in the front seven left their gap to go try to make a hero ball play in someone else’s gap, resulting in ground gainers ranging from 8 yards to 28 yards (touchdown). There were at least two plays when defensive backs used faulty technique in pass defense and three plays when Miami’s pass defense flat out turned receivers wide open due to assignment errors and miscommunication.
Mistakes are going to happen in college football, but when they happen on defense as often as they did last week against Appalachian State, you have to wonder about the level of focus and buy-in of the players.
That being said, Miami was better organized against Alabama, played fast and correct - despite the final score. Alabama was just that hard to defend that night.
So my big question in this game is where Miami’s level of focus and buy-in is for this game. Did Miami go too deep into a nonchalant relax mode against Group of Five opponent Appalachian State after a demoralizing loss to Alabama?
Miami head coach Manny Diaz conceded that his team was down following the Alabama loss.
“I always get weary talking about intangible things because they are hard to define, but it did feel like it shook us a little bit," Diaz said of the loss to Alabama and a carryover to the App State game.
You don’t hear a coach admit something like that very often, especially early in a season. Now, will the Hurricanes bounce back with great effort, communication and commitment in a chance to take on a Big Ten team? You’ll find out when I do.
“The chance to play in front of big crowd, with a big national TV match-up, I think it is going to get us fired up and allow us to leave Atlanta and last weekend in the rear-view mirror,” Diaz said.
The old adage is that the most improvement for a team usually comes between week one and week two. The Hurricanes need to show it between weeks two and three.
“We had a couple of drives where we had gross miscommunications on the back end,” Diaz said. “We have to make sure that we are sound in communication, especially later on in drives when tempo is getting to us. Guys are having a hard time communicating, and that’s our line of focus this week.”
Michigan State head coach Mel Tucker describes his team as being desperate to improve. And it's for constructive reasons. Michigan State has a chance to become one of the surprise teams in the nation this week if the Spartans can improve to 3-0 with a win at Miami, something few observers gave Michigan State a chance to due prior to the season.
I think Michigan State is focused, driven, pretty sharp, hungry and capable.
Miami is more than capable. Miami is fast and talented. Their pursuit speed on defense is impressive. The question is whether they will get back to being on the same page the way they were against Alabama or repeat last week’s problems.
Miami wasn’t bad and disorganized on defense throughout the night against Appalachian State - only on a big handful of plays. Those problems are correctable. It wasn’t just two or three plays, It was a succession of them. But it wasn't play after play after play. Just a few of them, but that's enough to get you beat this level.
Still, those problems are correctable.
Diaz does not have a great reputation of fielding sound defenses as a coach. He is the defensive coordinator of this outfit. He was d-coordinator for Miami from 2016-18 for head coach Mark Richt, and took over when Richt abruptly retired.
Those Miami teams under Richt were pretty good (9-4, 10-3, 7-6), but the defenses weren’t great. Diaz was fired as defensive coordinator at Texas in 2013 after three shaky seasons. Diaz’s Hurricanes struggled in run defense last year. This is not a new thing. These are quality control issues, and he needs to get them solved or else his seat is going to become red hot very quickly.
Diaz knows this and that’s why he took over defensive coordinator duties as head coach this year. Diaz will be hand-signaling the defense during the game, which is extremely uncommon. I can’t remember the last time I saw a head coach handling the signaling to a defense. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen it. But times are desperate at Miami. Maybe they will answer the bell, or maybe they will continue to fizzle.
Saturday could be a unique crossroads game for Miami and Michigan State. It’s the first game of the rest of Diaz’s tenure. If his defense is shaky in this game, and the Canes lose, the home fans are going to go from cranky to hostile against him.
There is less pressure on Tucker and his team, but it’s also the first game of the rest of his career. Get a big win at Miami and Tucker’s rebuilding project will seem, perhaps accurately, well ahead of schedule, and he could gain traction as perhaps the most dangerous man in the Big Ten, if not college football.
Earlier in the week, I listed Michigan State as having a 58 pct chance to win according to my BDI (balding dome index). After rewatching the Alabama game and seeing Miami play with better gap integrity in that game and better pass defense communication (despite the ease of Alabama’s early scoring drives), I’ll decrease that percentage down to 53 percent. Basically, I think this is Miami’s game to win or lose. Miami has the talent to get it done, and the road heat will be a major variable. I agree with Paul Konyndyk’s point that a talented team’s mistakes on film for one game often don’t get repeated the next week. He’s cited examples of September losses to Oregon and Notre Dame in recent years. That’s all true. But in this case, Diaz’s shaky past as a coordinator and leader comes into question as well. There’s a lot on the line in this game, and the mode of operation for each coach is still being written.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
A lot of attention is on Miami QB D’Eriq King, and for good reason. He’s a fast, explosive, dual-threat QB who can get hot as a passer. I’m sure he throws well on the run, but in the pieces I’ve seen, he has been more effective from the pocket than on the run, which surprised me a little bit. He’s dangerous. He can move the feet with his chains.
MSU, under Mark Dantonio’s best defenses, survived against dangerous dual-threat QBs such as Shoestring Denard Robinson by “putting a fence” around him, choosing to rush him with discipline, make him throw from the pocket, don’t let him out.
King is fast, but not quite as fast as Robinson. King throws the ball a bit better from the pocket than Robinson.
That was a different era for Michigan State. Michigan State had better defensive ends back then, a more seasoned and trustworthy secondary, and of course a different coaching staff.
But Harlon Barnett was part of the Michigan State coaching staff in those days. He knew what I was referring to when I asked him this week if Michigan State could deploy the same mindset in this game, and he indicated that that will very much be the mindset.
“You want to have eyes on the guy,” Barnett said. “You can’t have too many times when you’re running with guys and you don’t have eyes on them. If you have eyes on him and everybody is able to leverage the ball or cup the ball and trust their brother on the other side of them, that’s how you limit some of the things that he can do. Sometimes it’s easier said than done but that’s what we’re going to try to do.”
Michigan State will have a better chance to do this if Drew Beesley and Drew Jordan return after missing last week’s game. Michigan State coaches told the Big Ten Network broadcast crew that those players were out due to medical reasons. Their availability for this game is an unknown. And if they are back, what percentage of their normal selves will they be? Beesley and Jordan are not standout players, although Beesley was honorable mention All-Big Ten last year. But they are important players, with the capability of delivering a big play here or there, especially against a Miami offensive line that has had some struggles.
The biggest loss if Beesley and Jordan can’t play is in the area of defensive end depth. Jacub Panasiuk and Jeff Pietrowski were solid in extended work last week at defensive end. Panasiuk is an experienced starter whereas Jordan came off the bench in week one (Jordan and Panasiuk split reps pretty much evenly). The problem for Michigan State last weekend at d-end came when the third-stringers - Michael Fletcher and Jack Camper - became the second-stringer, especially on Camper’s side of the line.
In this game at Miami, against speed and in intense afternoon heat, the need to play reserves is more pronounced than ever. Without Beesley and/or Jordan, MSU’s reserve defensive end picture gets shaky very quickly, as does MSU’s chances of keeping King in a fence.
King is dangerous, but he is somewhat of a known commodity.
Miami’s defensive front is a bigger variable in my opinion. Miami can run and be disruptive in the defensive front, with good depth of their own. Or they can spring leaks due to lack of discipline. It’s up to Miami as to how effective they can be or want to be in this game, and that’s a little dangerous for Michigan State. That’s the variable I will be more eager to see than the King variable.
WILL MIAMI HOST THE GAPS?
Miami has had problems with gap integrity. But Miami is also explosive and capable in the defensive front.
Miami is a one-gapping defensive front. They have had problems with players jumping out of their gap in order to try to make the play in someone else’s gap.
HOWEVER, Miami has rolled up 18 TFLs this year. By comparison Michigan State has had only 12 in a pair of comfortable victories. Michigan State hasn’t been bad on defense, and you’re familiar as a reader in the job MSU’s defense has done and the level of opponent Michigan State has played. Michigan State hasn’t been bad in creating TFLs. 12 isn’t bad.
Now Miami, despite having sprung a lot of leaks on defense, has amassed 18 TFLs. That’s a lot of business in the backfield.
They have big d-tackles who can be disruptive, and rangy-fast edge linemen who close with quickness, and linebackers who converge with quickness.
From what I’ve seen, you don’t want to send run plays east and west against Miami. App State had success with inside run plays. [When I say App State had success, I mean sporadic success. They didn’t steamroll Miami up front. Miami didn’t lose collisions or get manhandled. App State had run game success when Miami left a gap un-hosted. App State’s tailbacks rushed for 146 yards on 33 carries (4.4 per attempt). MSU’s run game is better than App State’s. But will Miami’s intensity and gap discipline be better in this game as well? Key question).
A good coaching staff could get this Miami defensive front to play good, consistent run defense without much of a problem - although it would take a good August camp of coaching and maybe an entire spring. Getting it fix in one week of in-season practice can be kind of hard (but I get back to the example that Miami’s gap integrity wasn’t so bad against Alabama. They just seemed to break away from the teaching of the defense last week on a few occasions, and kind of went rogue. Combine that with terrible miscommunications in pass defense on a couple of scoring plays and you have to wonder about the buy-in. But it’s in their court. It’s Miami’s game to win or lose).
We often hear coaches talk about the importance of players doing their job and trusting that the man next to them is going to do their job. That’s part of the art of defense in this sport. Michigan State coaches tell their players to do their one-eleventh. Team defense has to fit like five fingers into a glove. Miami got away from that type of gap discipline on several occasions last week and it was a major reason why the game was so tight at the end.
Michigan State will present Miami with a varied run blocking scheme, spiced up with the threat of a decent pass game as well as the QB read option keeper threat. Diaz pointed out that it’s uncommon to face a team that can do all three. Michigan State is getting into that realm.
Michigan State unveiled use of guards and tackles pulling in unison last week as part of an expanding counter run game. Alabama had success with these type of counters in game one (of course Alabama has success with everything it does).
I’m not saying MSU’s counter run game is as good as Alabama’s, but Michigan State is capable of presenting Miami with a some well-oiled counter run plays which bring back side (or front side) pullers, which ADDS GAPS to the defensive equation.
Miami is already a little flaky when it comes to hosting all of the gaps up front. Add some good counter gap run schemes with extra gaps being added to the play side, and it will be a challenge for Miami to keep those gaps hosted, down-in and down-out.
Add the fact that MSU’s o-line has been decently physical and well-organized this year, and that’s a plus for Michigan State. The heat will be a problem, but Michigan State has been playing nine offensive linemen. That helps.
Add the fact that Kenneth Walker III’s top attributes are his vision and ability to find daylight when an opponent makes a gap error and his quick cutting ability to get to that daylight in an instant, his burst to get there, and then the fact that he’s a big, strong horse who is hard to bring down, and in terms of pure football theory, the Spartans seem to have a strong direct matchup with a Miami weakness in this area.
Miami tackled poorly against Alabama. Maybe that’s because Alabama has some horses who are hard to bring down. Kenneth Walker III isn’t quite Earl Campbell, but he’s not easy to tackle.
GUESS THE GAMEPLAN
With Miami having had problems with pass defense communication last week, I would expect Miami to decrease its material on defense this week and play more straight man-to-man and more straight, bailing two-deep and cover-three zone. Fewer pre-snap adjustments and “automatics,” fewer disguises. I would expect Miami’s response to last week’s errors to be more basic on defense this week.
******
Miami had some pass defense errors against Bama, too. Miami had to coverage busts on the opening drive of the game. One was on a deep skinny post. Miami didn’t get a reroute at the LB level, and the deep middle safety, Bubba Bolden, No. 21, a talented guy, just didn’t react in time and got beat deep. Talented guy, just a little sleepy or perhaps unsure of how the assignments would be filtered out as Bama’s route combination progressed.
The other bust was again in cover-three zone, this time with a fire zone (or zone blitz) taking place in the front seven. Miami allowed Bama’s top receiver to once again get behind the coverage due to a bust.
Miami’s pass defense, although not effective, was at least more on the same page for most of the rest of the night. The opening drive of the first game, I’ll kind of give them a mulligan for that one. But stil, it’s Miami. Mistakes have been common for them so far.
Michigan State QB Payton Thorne has done a good of reading coverages and finding weaknesses this year - albeit against weak defenses of Northwestern and Youngstown State. Now he Thorne will be faced with more dangerous pass rushers and a more aggressive defense (Miami blitzed on 12 of Alabama’s first 21 pass attempts).
Thorne will face faster defensive backs and more pressure, HOWEVER I would anticipate that the coverages won’t be complicated, for the reasons mentioned above. I think he will be able to read cover-three zone, and find the seam or the comebacks along the sideline; and he will read two-deep zone, and find the digs and sit-downs; and he will read man-to-man, and find the crossers and possibly a test a rocket or two with the deep go route. I don’t expect the reads to be difficult, due to the problem solving Miami is trying to do on defense.
That’s what I EXPECT. That is not a prediction. Those are the primary variables and questions I will be observing:
* Can Miami improve its gap integrity on run defense? Can Michigan State exploit past weaknesses there with a continuation of its running success behind a rejuvenated offensive line and Walker?
* Can Miami avoid the communication errors on pass defense that crept up last weekend?
* Can Michigan State keep a fence around QB King, especially if Beesley and/or Jordan aren’t available?
You’ll discover the truth at the same time that I do.
Secondly, Miami not only has good speed in the front seven (and everywhere), the Hurricanes also one-gap and flow very fast to the ball. They are an extreme fast-flow defense. The obvious counter to try to slow some of this down is counter-boot passing. Fake the run one way, bring the the QB back the other way on a naked bootleg to throw drag routes. I would expect No. 11 Connor Heyward to possibly be a weapon a few times in this type of play, something Michigan State has already shown this year. Our favorite analyst Big Moobie Armstrong says TE Maliq Carr could be ready to provide some noise in this area. Michigan State went to Carr on a bootleg last week. It didn't get loose for a big play, but he's getting established.
Miami's edge rushers are going to get loose for a QB hit or two. Have to make sure it’s not much more than that.
No. 12 at d-end Jahfari Harvey (6-4, 252, Port Saint Lucie, Fla., R-Fr.) is Miami's best pass rusher, according to Diaz. He had 1.5 TFLs last year to go with 5 TFLs and one start.
He often plays as a stand-up DE. He had a good pass rush on one play last week for an apparent sack, but it was negated by a penalty. He got a sack on the very next play on an inside move, good closing speed.
The above are some of the key areas of the matchup that are intriguing.
At the other d-end position, No. 52 Zach McCloud is a senior and a converted linebacker. Very quick. Had a little imp at times last week.
OTHER THINGS TO WATCH
MSU’S PASS DEFENSE
* Michigan State safety Angelo Grose continues to learn at safety. In the meantime, there are some potential problems here for Michigan State.
In the second half of the Youngstown State game, on one particular play, the Penguins deployed their most dangerous receiver as an inside receiver, third from the outside.
Michigan State happened to be in press man-to-man for this play.
That put Grose in press man-to-man against YSU’s most dangerous receiver.
That’s a matchup YSU wanted.
YSU’s WR ran a deep flag route and was open against Grose by a step or more. The QB overthrew him.
Michigan State likes to have the flexibility and multiplicity to be able to play press man-to-man across the board at times, even with safeties. Michigan State plays it that way every once in awhile, although Michigan State doesn’t quite have the skill and speed to do it. Grose could achieve that ability some day, but right now he’s not quite there. On the deep play I just mentioned, Grose’s hips and reaction time were a little slow. He’s a former cornerback, so I think he has better hips than he showed on that play. But if Michigan State is going to continue to play that way, No. 15 will become an occasional target.
Everyone like Grose. I like Grose. But there’s a learning curve taking place, a process. Michigan State allowed a deep ball to Kalon Gervin’s side against Northwestern because Grose didn’t get enough depth over the top to help. He read it right and arrived on time, but his aim of depth was off.
“Got to get more depth on that one,” Barnett confirmed with me. “That’s going to come with experience. The more he does it, the better he’ll get at it, and he should end up being a really, really good player for us back there.”
On YSU’s 26-yard TD run in the second half, Grose scraped aggressively toward the play, but didn’t get the tackle. He wasn’t the main problem on the play. Camper was bulldozed off the line of scrimmage while trying to two-gap. He was sled-blocked into the linebacker, which left Michigan State soft at the point of attack and eliminated linebacker pursuit to the alley. Meanwhile, Gervin - who has been good in run defense most of the year - came in too thin on that play. The play was to his side. He didn’t leverage the ball from outside in, and let it get outside. If he leveraged it outside-in, Grose would have had a better chance to save the play and make the tackle.
That being said, Grose was more aggressive to the ball on that play than the coaches wanted. That’s part of the learning process.
“We have to slow him down a little bit because he is an aggressive football player,” Barnett said “He’s trying to learn how to let the game come to him. He understands that he’s still growing in it and he’ll be fine.”
Michigan State hasn’t played perfect football this year, obviously. Grose has a bright future and he’s making progress at a new position. But the fact remains that No. 15 will be on Miami’s hit list to test and try to exploit.
MIAMI PASS THREATS
* Miami told ABC’s commentators that they planned to go deep to WR No. 11 Charleston Rambo (6-1, 185, Jr.) against Alabama early and often. However, Miami didn’t try it for the first time until the last minute of the first half when Rambo got a favorable matchup against a back-up safety while aligning Rambo as an interior receiver. Rambo went deep and drew pass interference. Miami will occasionally try to get the same matchup against an Michigan State safety by putting Rambo in the interior.
Can Michigan State flip-flop it and put a CB against No. 11 in the interior and bump Grose out to play press against a wider and theoretically less-dangerous WR? Yes, but the problem is that Miami’s other receivers (No. 5 Key’Shawn Smith, No. 7 Xavier Restrepo and No. 3 Mike Harley) are dangerous too. These three guys aren't big receivers, and they aren't long on experience.
* Restrepo (No. 7) had a great 29-yard TD catch against Alabama as a slot WR vs press. Got away with a little bit of a push-off.
Restropo (5-10, 195, Fr., Coconut Creek, Fla.) drew pass interference on a deep go route against Alabama in the third quarter.
* Smith (No. 5) drew pass interference on a deep shot in the second quarter last week. He had a great diving cath for 36 yards vs good press coverage last week.
* Smith (6-1, 188, Fr., San Diego) caught a slant on a third-and-eght in the first quarter against Alabama. He was the primary receiver in that third-down situation.
* Smith a nice 15-yard catch on a dig route on fourth-and-long late in the first half against Alabama. Caught it in a crowd. Nice pass from King. Out of a bunch formation. No. 5 Smith seems to have been the first guy King looks to in long-yardage passing situations in the first two games.
* Harley (No. 3) had more than 700 yards receiving last year and is a captain. Harley (5-11, 182, Sr., Fort Lauderdale) was a little banged up against Alabama, not sure what the injury was. He had two dropped passes in the same possession against App State, including a third-and-six slant in the red zone. Ouch. But his history is good.
Bottom line, if and when Michigan State goes press man-to-man with more than two DBs, Miami can attack No. 15 (Grose) with any of these guys.
But I think Michigan State is going to play less man-to-man in this game than in others so that they can keep more eyes on King with zone.
* Miami tight end Will Mallory (6-5, 245, Jr., Jacksonville, Fla.) is above average. He had 22 catches for 329 yards last year with four TDs and ranked fifth on the team in receptions.
This year he's been kind of quiet with five catches on the season with a long of 9 yards.
Mallory, No. 85, is a big target with long arms and runs well.
* Caught a TD in their first scrimmage in August on an out route in the red zone
- Dropped a crossing route on third down to end Miami’s first drive last week.
* Only 2 catches vs Alabama.
* Functional blocker but not great in that area from what I've seen.
+ Got a short out for a first down thanks to a crack pick play on the second play of the game vs Alabama.
THE CORNERBACK SITUATION
Kalon Gervin has been pretty good this year as a starting cornerback. The deep pass allowed against Northwestern wasn’t on him. He has improved as a tackler and seems to have improved his speed. I’m not ready to say he is a plus player, but he will get tested in this game and we will learn more about him after four quarters in Miami.
At the other cornerback position, Ronald Williams Jr. started against Northwestern. Williams, a transfer from Alabama, gave up a deep ball out of press coverage. Williams attempted an off-hand jam on that play but didn’t seem to get enough contact and then stumbled as the WR seemed to surprise him with his burst (the WR being that transfer from Kansas who is pretty good).
“Ronald played okay in the first week and we thought he could play and he thought he could play better,” Barnett said. “He wasn’t happy with his performance, and he worked hard at it last week and when he got in the game last week he did a good job and he’s done a good job this week as well.”
Chester Kimbrough started in place of Williams against Youngstown State.
“As far as Chester, he got in last week, showing what he can do,” Barnett said. “He knows what we want him to be able to do and he’s showing that he can do it.”
Kimbrough played 43 snaps last week and Williams played 38.
“It’s a good battle going on,” Barnett said. “There’s a standard that we are going to hold those guys to and they understand that. They’re starting to apply it and now competition is really real, and best players play.”
Bottom line: Kimbrough and Williams are two capable cornerbacks, both hungry to show they can start and star at this level. They come from power SEC programs but are still getting used to starting jobs. There’s a chance they could improve steadily as the season evolves, starting now. They will be hungry for this matchup, feeling at home back in the deep south. But are they ready for what Miami will throw at them? They might give up a play or two but I don’t see Michigan State CBs vs Miami WRs being a 60-minute problem. They’ll hit some. Michigan State needs to limit the damage and I think Michigan State is capable of doing so.
On a hot day, Michigan State will need to play three or four cornerbacks. Michigan State was wise to get Kimbrough and Chuck Brantley into the game last week. Brantley is a true freshman from Venice, Fla. He will be needed to pitch some relief innings for Gervin, and Brantley will also be eager to do so back in his home state.
With the heat, and Miami’s use of uptempo offense, it was imperative to get Kimbrough and Brantley established last week. Brantley played 34 snaps last week. Will that pay dividends this week? It should help keep Michigan State fresh at the position. That doesn’t guarantee success, but it helps.
MSU RUN DEFENSE VS MIAMI RUN GAME
We’ve looked at key components of all the other matchups, but most coaches will tell you that the key to winning any game is stopping the run or establishing the run.
MSU’s run defense has been inconsistent.
Northwestern RBs gained 114 yards on 21 attempts (5.4 per carry). 49 of those yards came on the first play of the second half.
On that play, no one for Michigan State got bulldozed. Michigan State just had three defenders focused on a two-man bubble pass threat to the field. Michigan State walked nickel back Michael Dowell out there to help the CB and safety keep an eye on the two WRs to the field.
That’s one of the biggest differences between MSU’s current defensive mindset and the Dantonio regime.
Michigan State wouldn’t have had Dowell out there putting 3 defenders over 2 WRs to the field. He would have been a linebacker, and in tighter to the box to take away the run first. (And Northwestern would have thrown to the field versus the softer coverage and done it all day and frustrated Michigan State fans with the cat-and-mouse pass. You’ve seen Northwestern do that before).
So it’s a game of robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Michigan State left the ground defense on thinner ice on that place by walking the nickel man out to the two-WR side of the field.
From there, Northwestern had a nice little lead-blocker H-back insert at the B-gap. He put a good isolation block on inside linebacker Quavaris Crouch.
Crouch hit-and-shed the block from outside-in. That’s okay, but safety Xavier Henderson was coming down to support the run defense and also was outside-in. Those two ended up basically in the same gap.
Should Crouch have shed that thing from inside-out? Probably not. Michigan State usually wants to leverage things from outside in.
Did Henderson come down too thin and read the thing wrong? Or was he unsure how his new teammate Crouch was going to defend it? Could have been either or both. Henderson ended up being unable to make the tackle, by a half step.
Dowell tried to pursue the alley from the field and make the tackle before it got out, but the umpire got in his way and the RB was gone. (Gervin chased it down to make the tackle).
Long story short: Michigan State held Northwestern tailbacks to 3.2 yards per carry on all other carries that night. One little one gets out and it can change the game. Miami has better speed and game-breaking ability at RB than Northwestern. Miami RB Cam’Ron Harris is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and has 128 yards on the season.
Harris (5-10, 210, Jr., Opa-Locka, Fla.) started 10 games last year and rushed for 643 yards (5.1 per carry) and 10 rushing TDs. He had 18 catches for 131 yards last year
Harris is pretty good. Not great, behind an enigmatic offensive line. Harris (No. 23) rushed for 91 yards on 18 carries against App State with a long of 19.
His back-up RB, Donald Chaney Jr.) (5-10, 208) was lost for the season to an ACL injury last week. They will miss him. Chaney had a short TD last week and a good, tough 26-yard run on a zone read carry last week.
Miami’s offensive line was criticized last year. They had trouble against Alabama (no shame there, join the club).
The Miami o-line didn’t look bad to me last week. Miami rushed for 175 yards. King had 79 of those. As a runner, King got loose a few times on scramble keepers. He had 19 carries on the night, with more than 10 of them being zone read keepers or designed keepers - he wasn’t as effective on those. In fact, the crowd booed midway through the second half on one occasion after a designed keeper on first down and then a zone read keeper on second down went nowhere.
Miami’s run game is decent, not great. MSU’s run defense has been suspect.
Last week, YSU rushed for 167 yards against Michigan State, with the QB doing 69 yards of tough damage on 18 carries. The YSU QB was effective with third-down, chain-moving keepers.
YSU’s dangerous little RB, McLaughlin, had only 34 yards on 13 carries. I was correct in saying that Michigan State would be able to bottle him up but Michigan State was not nearly as dominant in the defensive line against a mediocre YSU o-line as I expected. The lack of Beesley, Jordan and DT Jalen Hunt had something to do with that (Hunt played a couple of snaps but then had to sit for a second straight week).
So we’re still learning about MSU’s run defense and personnel in the front seven.
Bottom line: I don’t think Miami’s run game is good enough to put a huge dent in this game and I don’t think MSU’s run defense is good enough or bad enough to be a major bellwether in this game.
That being said, ability to stop the run or establish the run is always a key factor in a game. I’m just not sensing that either side will tilt the scales in this part of the matchup.
MIAMI STYLE OF PLAY ON OFFENSE
They do a lot of what Michigan State does, but with a QB with livelier legs.
You’ll see the pistol formation, zone read option and RPOs. You’ll see the diamond formation out of the pistol.
Michigan State pulls linemen with counters more often than Miami.
Miami will flood the boundary with three receivers more than Michigan State has shown.
Miami will occasionally go with quads (four receivers to one side).
Other than that, these two teams play a similar style of offensive football.
Miami will use uptempo more often than Michigan State.
SPECIAL TEAMS NOTE
Miami's punter, 26-year-old Australian Lou Hedley, set an FBS all-time record in net punting last year at 44.9 yards. He does the rugby punt and gives gunners time to get down the field. Miami has great speed in its coverage units and this part of their outfit is tied pretty well together.
Xavier Restrepo, mentioned earlier as a WR, is a good punt returner.
ADD IT ALL UP
It’s a race. Who is going to improve first? Will Michigan State keep making strides on defense, with Crouch and Grose gaining a footing as they learn? Will Beesley and Jordan return to bolster a questionable defensive end picture? Is the combination of Kimbrough and Williams ready to be an impact tag team at the left cornerback position? Is Brantley ready to provide reliable relief for Gervin? Is Gervin indeed on an upward trajectory as a player? Is Hunt healthy and ready to make an impact for the first time since the Northwestern game of LAST year? At that time, Michigan State d-coordinator Scottie Hazelton considered Hunt one of the three best defensive players on the team. He went out in that game and missed the rest of the year, and then went out with a lower body injury against Northwestern and played only two snaps last week. He’s doing what he can do, but in a game like this, Michigan State could use some heroes.
As for the rest of the race, is Thorne ready to go on the road, in the heat, against the fastest athletes he’s ever played against, and remain the same calm, precise thrower he’s been thus far this year? At some point in his career, Thorne will become that guy. Is he ready to do it NOW? The race is on.
As for the rest of the race, is the Michigan State o-line ready to show that it can get the job done against foes that are faster and more aggressive than what they faced in the first two weeks? MSU’s o-line is deep and experienced. They’ve played against monsters in the past. This Miami defensive front isn’t great. They have some excellent individuals, but it’s not an overly fearsome group. But they are fast and aggressive. MSU’s o-line is poised, mature and eager to live up to a standard that it failed to set for itself in the past two or three years with many of these guys having been part of those disappointments.
They helped pave the way for Walker to rush for 264 yards against Northwestern. They saw App State have some success against a defensive front that lacked gap integrity on that night. The Michigan State o-line is hungry to show it is ahead of the pace in this race. But we need to see it to believe it.
As for the rest of the race, can Diaz get his defensive front to play core principles, and host gaps with discipline rather than jumping out of responsibilities to play hero ball? If they don’t get that fixed, if Miami shows the same propensity to make gap errors and coverage busts, the Hurricanes will have a hard, hard time winning this game.
Pundits and experts try to find matchups that will tilt the scales in games like this. Coaches believe that most games come down to five or six pivotal plays. Could be a kickoff return for a TD (like App State had against Miami last week), could be a pass deflection resulting in an interception at the 5-yard line and a short field for a TD drive (like Miami had last week against App State), could be a deep pass that gets loose against Michigan State to negate many positive downs for the Spartans that didn’t end up in points. Or it could be a blocked punt, like the one Michigan State allowed last week, or a punt return for a TD, like Michigan State allowed on two occasions last year. The race includes Michigan State’s need to prove it doesn’t have a systemic problem in the punt game.
I suspect that’s what this game will come down to: five or six loose or explosive plays that negate a pretty even struggle at the line of scrimmage, with Thorne and King going back and forth making a fair amount of plays. As far as QB mistakes, I see either team with an advantage or disadvantage in that area at this time. King has much more experience, but I think both QBs are somewhat equal in terms of avoiding major mistakes.
Slight chance Michigan State establishes control with the run game, gets Walker going, finding daylight, and Miami becomes less gap-disciplined as frustration sets in, and then the play-action pass game undresses Miami the way App State did a couple of times. Can Michigan State get a ball rolling like that and increase its momentum while the afternoon heat becomes more and more of a factor? I kind of doubt it, but it’s possible. I would give Michigan State a better chance of establishing this type of ground-and-pound advantage in a neutral setting with heat not a factor. I just need to see it to believe it in 95-degree temperatures. I would be very, very impressed if Michigan State was able to do that. It’s possible.
Overall, I’ll stick with my 53 percent expectation that Michigan State will do enough at QB and in the run game to protect an edge on the scoreboard. That’s what I’m expecting to see, based on the body of work that each team has shown in two games. That’s what I’m expecting, that’s not a prediction. The bodies of work are still be established and this season is still being written, but Saturday’s chapter is going to be a pivotal one.
I didn't include a player-by-player breakdown of the Hurricanes. I decided to end it at 6,000 words. I might include that later, possibly with some video shorts of examples of some of the Miami breakdowns on defense that need to be fixed for this game.
The Pre-Snap Read: Michigan State vs Miami
By Jim Comparoni
SpartanMag.com
East Lansing, Mich. - Cutting to the chase:
I thought Miami played better in its 44-13 loss to Alabama than it did in last week’s 25-23 victory over Appalachian State.
Miami was disorganized on defense against App State. I counted at least five play in run defense when a player or players in the front seven left their gap to go try to make a hero ball play in someone else’s gap, resulting in ground gainers ranging from 8 yards to 28 yards (touchdown). There were at least two plays when defensive backs used faulty technique in pass defense and three plays when Miami’s pass defense flat out turned receivers wide open due to assignment errors and miscommunication.
Mistakes are going to happen in college football, but when they happen on defense as often as they did last week against Appalachian State, you have to wonder about the level of focus and buy-in of the players.
That being said, Miami was better organized against Alabama, played fast and correct - despite the final score. Alabama was just that hard to defend that night.
So my big question in this game is where Miami’s level of focus and buy-in is for this game. Did Miami go too deep into a nonchalant relax mode against Group of Five opponent Appalachian State after a demoralizing loss to Alabama?
Miami head coach Manny Diaz conceded that his team was down following the Alabama loss.
“I always get weary talking about intangible things because they are hard to define, but it did feel like it shook us a little bit," Diaz said of the loss to Alabama and a carryover to the App State game.
You don’t hear a coach admit something like that very often, especially early in a season. Now, will the Hurricanes bounce back with great effort, communication and commitment in a chance to take on a Big Ten team? You’ll find out when I do.
“The chance to play in front of big crowd, with a big national TV match-up, I think it is going to get us fired up and allow us to leave Atlanta and last weekend in the rear-view mirror,” Diaz said.
The old adage is that the most improvement for a team usually comes between week one and week two. The Hurricanes need to show it between weeks two and three.
“We had a couple of drives where we had gross miscommunications on the back end,” Diaz said. “We have to make sure that we are sound in communication, especially later on in drives when tempo is getting to us. Guys are having a hard time communicating, and that’s our line of focus this week.”
Michigan State head coach Mel Tucker describes his team as being desperate to improve. And it's for constructive reasons. Michigan State has a chance to become one of the surprise teams in the nation this week if the Spartans can improve to 3-0 with a win at Miami, something few observers gave Michigan State a chance to due prior to the season.
I think Michigan State is focused, driven, pretty sharp, hungry and capable.
Miami is more than capable. Miami is fast and talented. Their pursuit speed on defense is impressive. The question is whether they will get back to being on the same page the way they were against Alabama or repeat last week’s problems.
Miami wasn’t bad and disorganized on defense throughout the night against Appalachian State - only on a big handful of plays. Those problems are correctable. It wasn’t just two or three plays, It was a succession of them. But it wasn't play after play after play. Just a few of them, but that's enough to get you beat this level.
Still, those problems are correctable.
Diaz does not have a great reputation of fielding sound defenses as a coach. He is the defensive coordinator of this outfit. He was d-coordinator for Miami from 2016-18 for head coach Mark Richt, and took over when Richt abruptly retired.
Those Miami teams under Richt were pretty good (9-4, 10-3, 7-6), but the defenses weren’t great. Diaz was fired as defensive coordinator at Texas in 2013 after three shaky seasons. Diaz’s Hurricanes struggled in run defense last year. This is not a new thing. These are quality control issues, and he needs to get them solved or else his seat is going to become red hot very quickly.
Diaz knows this and that’s why he took over defensive coordinator duties as head coach this year. Diaz will be hand-signaling the defense during the game, which is extremely uncommon. I can’t remember the last time I saw a head coach handling the signaling to a defense. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen it. But times are desperate at Miami. Maybe they will answer the bell, or maybe they will continue to fizzle.
Saturday could be a unique crossroads game for Miami and Michigan State. It’s the first game of the rest of Diaz’s tenure. If his defense is shaky in this game, and the Canes lose, the home fans are going to go from cranky to hostile against him.
There is less pressure on Tucker and his team, but it’s also the first game of the rest of his career. Get a big win at Miami and Tucker’s rebuilding project will seem, perhaps accurately, well ahead of schedule, and he could gain traction as perhaps the most dangerous man in the Big Ten, if not college football.
Earlier in the week, I listed Michigan State as having a 58 pct chance to win according to my BDI (balding dome index). After rewatching the Alabama game and seeing Miami play with better gap integrity in that game and better pass defense communication (despite the ease of Alabama’s early scoring drives), I’ll decrease that percentage down to 53 percent. Basically, I think this is Miami’s game to win or lose. Miami has the talent to get it done, and the road heat will be a major variable. I agree with Paul Konyndyk’s point that a talented team’s mistakes on film for one game often don’t get repeated the next week. He’s cited examples of September losses to Oregon and Notre Dame in recent years. That’s all true. But in this case, Diaz’s shaky past as a coordinator and leader comes into question as well. There’s a lot on the line in this game, and the mode of operation for each coach is still being written.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
A lot of attention is on Miami QB D’Eriq King, and for good reason. He’s a fast, explosive, dual-threat QB who can get hot as a passer. I’m sure he throws well on the run, but in the pieces I’ve seen, he has been more effective from the pocket than on the run, which surprised me a little bit. He’s dangerous. He can move the feet with his chains.
MSU, under Mark Dantonio’s best defenses, survived against dangerous dual-threat QBs such as Shoestring Denard Robinson by “putting a fence” around him, choosing to rush him with discipline, make him throw from the pocket, don’t let him out.
King is fast, but not quite as fast as Robinson. King throws the ball a bit better from the pocket than Robinson.
That was a different era for Michigan State. Michigan State had better defensive ends back then, a more seasoned and trustworthy secondary, and of course a different coaching staff.
But Harlon Barnett was part of the Michigan State coaching staff in those days. He knew what I was referring to when I asked him this week if Michigan State could deploy the same mindset in this game, and he indicated that that will very much be the mindset.
“You want to have eyes on the guy,” Barnett said. “You can’t have too many times when you’re running with guys and you don’t have eyes on them. If you have eyes on him and everybody is able to leverage the ball or cup the ball and trust their brother on the other side of them, that’s how you limit some of the things that he can do. Sometimes it’s easier said than done but that’s what we’re going to try to do.”
Michigan State will have a better chance to do this if Drew Beesley and Drew Jordan return after missing last week’s game. Michigan State coaches told the Big Ten Network broadcast crew that those players were out due to medical reasons. Their availability for this game is an unknown. And if they are back, what percentage of their normal selves will they be? Beesley and Jordan are not standout players, although Beesley was honorable mention All-Big Ten last year. But they are important players, with the capability of delivering a big play here or there, especially against a Miami offensive line that has had some struggles.
The biggest loss if Beesley and Jordan can’t play is in the area of defensive end depth. Jacub Panasiuk and Jeff Pietrowski were solid in extended work last week at defensive end. Panasiuk is an experienced starter whereas Jordan came off the bench in week one (Jordan and Panasiuk split reps pretty much evenly). The problem for Michigan State last weekend at d-end came when the third-stringers - Michael Fletcher and Jack Camper - became the second-stringer, especially on Camper’s side of the line.
In this game at Miami, against speed and in intense afternoon heat, the need to play reserves is more pronounced than ever. Without Beesley and/or Jordan, MSU’s reserve defensive end picture gets shaky very quickly, as does MSU’s chances of keeping King in a fence.
King is dangerous, but he is somewhat of a known commodity.
Miami’s defensive front is a bigger variable in my opinion. Miami can run and be disruptive in the defensive front, with good depth of their own. Or they can spring leaks due to lack of discipline. It’s up to Miami as to how effective they can be or want to be in this game, and that’s a little dangerous for Michigan State. That’s the variable I will be more eager to see than the King variable.
WILL MIAMI HOST THE GAPS?
Miami has had problems with gap integrity. But Miami is also explosive and capable in the defensive front.
Miami is a one-gapping defensive front. They have had problems with players jumping out of their gap in order to try to make the play in someone else’s gap.
HOWEVER, Miami has rolled up 18 TFLs this year. By comparison Michigan State has had only 12 in a pair of comfortable victories. Michigan State hasn’t been bad on defense, and you’re familiar as a reader in the job MSU’s defense has done and the level of opponent Michigan State has played. Michigan State hasn’t been bad in creating TFLs. 12 isn’t bad.
Now Miami, despite having sprung a lot of leaks on defense, has amassed 18 TFLs. That’s a lot of business in the backfield.
They have big d-tackles who can be disruptive, and rangy-fast edge linemen who close with quickness, and linebackers who converge with quickness.
From what I’ve seen, you don’t want to send run plays east and west against Miami. App State had success with inside run plays. [When I say App State had success, I mean sporadic success. They didn’t steamroll Miami up front. Miami didn’t lose collisions or get manhandled. App State had run game success when Miami left a gap un-hosted. App State’s tailbacks rushed for 146 yards on 33 carries (4.4 per attempt). MSU’s run game is better than App State’s. But will Miami’s intensity and gap discipline be better in this game as well? Key question).
A good coaching staff could get this Miami defensive front to play good, consistent run defense without much of a problem - although it would take a good August camp of coaching and maybe an entire spring. Getting it fix in one week of in-season practice can be kind of hard (but I get back to the example that Miami’s gap integrity wasn’t so bad against Alabama. They just seemed to break away from the teaching of the defense last week on a few occasions, and kind of went rogue. Combine that with terrible miscommunications in pass defense on a couple of scoring plays and you have to wonder about the buy-in. But it’s in their court. It’s Miami’s game to win or lose).
We often hear coaches talk about the importance of players doing their job and trusting that the man next to them is going to do their job. That’s part of the art of defense in this sport. Michigan State coaches tell their players to do their one-eleventh. Team defense has to fit like five fingers into a glove. Miami got away from that type of gap discipline on several occasions last week and it was a major reason why the game was so tight at the end.
Michigan State will present Miami with a varied run blocking scheme, spiced up with the threat of a decent pass game as well as the QB read option keeper threat. Diaz pointed out that it’s uncommon to face a team that can do all three. Michigan State is getting into that realm.
Michigan State unveiled use of guards and tackles pulling in unison last week as part of an expanding counter run game. Alabama had success with these type of counters in game one (of course Alabama has success with everything it does).
I’m not saying MSU’s counter run game is as good as Alabama’s, but Michigan State is capable of presenting Miami with a some well-oiled counter run plays which bring back side (or front side) pullers, which ADDS GAPS to the defensive equation.
Miami is already a little flaky when it comes to hosting all of the gaps up front. Add some good counter gap run schemes with extra gaps being added to the play side, and it will be a challenge for Miami to keep those gaps hosted, down-in and down-out.
Add the fact that MSU’s o-line has been decently physical and well-organized this year, and that’s a plus for Michigan State. The heat will be a problem, but Michigan State has been playing nine offensive linemen. That helps.
Add the fact that Kenneth Walker III’s top attributes are his vision and ability to find daylight when an opponent makes a gap error and his quick cutting ability to get to that daylight in an instant, his burst to get there, and then the fact that he’s a big, strong horse who is hard to bring down, and in terms of pure football theory, the Spartans seem to have a strong direct matchup with a Miami weakness in this area.
Miami tackled poorly against Alabama. Maybe that’s because Alabama has some horses who are hard to bring down. Kenneth Walker III isn’t quite Earl Campbell, but he’s not easy to tackle.
GUESS THE GAMEPLAN
With Miami having had problems with pass defense communication last week, I would expect Miami to decrease its material on defense this week and play more straight man-to-man and more straight, bailing two-deep and cover-three zone. Fewer pre-snap adjustments and “automatics,” fewer disguises. I would expect Miami’s response to last week’s errors to be more basic on defense this week.
******
Miami had some pass defense errors against Bama, too. Miami had to coverage busts on the opening drive of the game. One was on a deep skinny post. Miami didn’t get a reroute at the LB level, and the deep middle safety, Bubba Bolden, No. 21, a talented guy, just didn’t react in time and got beat deep. Talented guy, just a little sleepy or perhaps unsure of how the assignments would be filtered out as Bama’s route combination progressed.
The other bust was again in cover-three zone, this time with a fire zone (or zone blitz) taking place in the front seven. Miami allowed Bama’s top receiver to once again get behind the coverage due to a bust.
Miami’s pass defense, although not effective, was at least more on the same page for most of the rest of the night. The opening drive of the first game, I’ll kind of give them a mulligan for that one. But stil, it’s Miami. Mistakes have been common for them so far.
Michigan State QB Payton Thorne has done a good of reading coverages and finding weaknesses this year - albeit against weak defenses of Northwestern and Youngstown State. Now he Thorne will be faced with more dangerous pass rushers and a more aggressive defense (Miami blitzed on 12 of Alabama’s first 21 pass attempts).
Thorne will face faster defensive backs and more pressure, HOWEVER I would anticipate that the coverages won’t be complicated, for the reasons mentioned above. I think he will be able to read cover-three zone, and find the seam or the comebacks along the sideline; and he will read two-deep zone, and find the digs and sit-downs; and he will read man-to-man, and find the crossers and possibly a test a rocket or two with the deep go route. I don’t expect the reads to be difficult, due to the problem solving Miami is trying to do on defense.
That’s what I EXPECT. That is not a prediction. Those are the primary variables and questions I will be observing:
* Can Miami improve its gap integrity on run defense? Can Michigan State exploit past weaknesses there with a continuation of its running success behind a rejuvenated offensive line and Walker?
* Can Miami avoid the communication errors on pass defense that crept up last weekend?
* Can Michigan State keep a fence around QB King, especially if Beesley and/or Jordan aren’t available?
You’ll discover the truth at the same time that I do.
Secondly, Miami not only has good speed in the front seven (and everywhere), the Hurricanes also one-gap and flow very fast to the ball. They are an extreme fast-flow defense. The obvious counter to try to slow some of this down is counter-boot passing. Fake the run one way, bring the the QB back the other way on a naked bootleg to throw drag routes. I would expect No. 11 Connor Heyward to possibly be a weapon a few times in this type of play, something Michigan State has already shown this year. Our favorite analyst Big Moobie Armstrong says TE Maliq Carr could be ready to provide some noise in this area. Michigan State went to Carr on a bootleg last week. It didn't get loose for a big play, but he's getting established.
Miami's edge rushers are going to get loose for a QB hit or two. Have to make sure it’s not much more than that.
No. 12 at d-end Jahfari Harvey (6-4, 252, Port Saint Lucie, Fla., R-Fr.) is Miami's best pass rusher, according to Diaz. He had 1.5 TFLs last year to go with 5 TFLs and one start.
He often plays as a stand-up DE. He had a good pass rush on one play last week for an apparent sack, but it was negated by a penalty. He got a sack on the very next play on an inside move, good closing speed.
The above are some of the key areas of the matchup that are intriguing.
At the other d-end position, No. 52 Zach McCloud is a senior and a converted linebacker. Very quick. Had a little imp at times last week.
OTHER THINGS TO WATCH
MSU’S PASS DEFENSE
* Michigan State safety Angelo Grose continues to learn at safety. In the meantime, there are some potential problems here for Michigan State.
In the second half of the Youngstown State game, on one particular play, the Penguins deployed their most dangerous receiver as an inside receiver, third from the outside.
Michigan State happened to be in press man-to-man for this play.
That put Grose in press man-to-man against YSU’s most dangerous receiver.
That’s a matchup YSU wanted.
YSU’s WR ran a deep flag route and was open against Grose by a step or more. The QB overthrew him.
Michigan State likes to have the flexibility and multiplicity to be able to play press man-to-man across the board at times, even with safeties. Michigan State plays it that way every once in awhile, although Michigan State doesn’t quite have the skill and speed to do it. Grose could achieve that ability some day, but right now he’s not quite there. On the deep play I just mentioned, Grose’s hips and reaction time were a little slow. He’s a former cornerback, so I think he has better hips than he showed on that play. But if Michigan State is going to continue to play that way, No. 15 will become an occasional target.
Everyone like Grose. I like Grose. But there’s a learning curve taking place, a process. Michigan State allowed a deep ball to Kalon Gervin’s side against Northwestern because Grose didn’t get enough depth over the top to help. He read it right and arrived on time, but his aim of depth was off.
“Got to get more depth on that one,” Barnett confirmed with me. “That’s going to come with experience. The more he does it, the better he’ll get at it, and he should end up being a really, really good player for us back there.”
On YSU’s 26-yard TD run in the second half, Grose scraped aggressively toward the play, but didn’t get the tackle. He wasn’t the main problem on the play. Camper was bulldozed off the line of scrimmage while trying to two-gap. He was sled-blocked into the linebacker, which left Michigan State soft at the point of attack and eliminated linebacker pursuit to the alley. Meanwhile, Gervin - who has been good in run defense most of the year - came in too thin on that play. The play was to his side. He didn’t leverage the ball from outside in, and let it get outside. If he leveraged it outside-in, Grose would have had a better chance to save the play and make the tackle.
That being said, Grose was more aggressive to the ball on that play than the coaches wanted. That’s part of the learning process.
“We have to slow him down a little bit because he is an aggressive football player,” Barnett said “He’s trying to learn how to let the game come to him. He understands that he’s still growing in it and he’ll be fine.”
Michigan State hasn’t played perfect football this year, obviously. Grose has a bright future and he’s making progress at a new position. But the fact remains that No. 15 will be on Miami’s hit list to test and try to exploit.
MIAMI PASS THREATS
* Miami told ABC’s commentators that they planned to go deep to WR No. 11 Charleston Rambo (6-1, 185, Jr.) against Alabama early and often. However, Miami didn’t try it for the first time until the last minute of the first half when Rambo got a favorable matchup against a back-up safety while aligning Rambo as an interior receiver. Rambo went deep and drew pass interference. Miami will occasionally try to get the same matchup against an Michigan State safety by putting Rambo in the interior.
Can Michigan State flip-flop it and put a CB against No. 11 in the interior and bump Grose out to play press against a wider and theoretically less-dangerous WR? Yes, but the problem is that Miami’s other receivers (No. 5 Key’Shawn Smith, No. 7 Xavier Restrepo and No. 3 Mike Harley) are dangerous too. These three guys aren't big receivers, and they aren't long on experience.
* Restrepo (No. 7) had a great 29-yard TD catch against Alabama as a slot WR vs press. Got away with a little bit of a push-off.
Restropo (5-10, 195, Fr., Coconut Creek, Fla.) drew pass interference on a deep go route against Alabama in the third quarter.
* Smith (No. 5) drew pass interference on a deep shot in the second quarter last week. He had a great diving cath for 36 yards vs good press coverage last week.
* Smith (6-1, 188, Fr., San Diego) caught a slant on a third-and-eght in the first quarter against Alabama. He was the primary receiver in that third-down situation.
* Smith a nice 15-yard catch on a dig route on fourth-and-long late in the first half against Alabama. Caught it in a crowd. Nice pass from King. Out of a bunch formation. No. 5 Smith seems to have been the first guy King looks to in long-yardage passing situations in the first two games.
* Harley (No. 3) had more than 700 yards receiving last year and is a captain. Harley (5-11, 182, Sr., Fort Lauderdale) was a little banged up against Alabama, not sure what the injury was. He had two dropped passes in the same possession against App State, including a third-and-six slant in the red zone. Ouch. But his history is good.
Bottom line, if and when Michigan State goes press man-to-man with more than two DBs, Miami can attack No. 15 (Grose) with any of these guys.
But I think Michigan State is going to play less man-to-man in this game than in others so that they can keep more eyes on King with zone.
* Miami tight end Will Mallory (6-5, 245, Jr., Jacksonville, Fla.) is above average. He had 22 catches for 329 yards last year with four TDs and ranked fifth on the team in receptions.
This year he's been kind of quiet with five catches on the season with a long of 9 yards.
Mallory, No. 85, is a big target with long arms and runs well.
* Caught a TD in their first scrimmage in August on an out route in the red zone
- Dropped a crossing route on third down to end Miami’s first drive last week.
* Only 2 catches vs Alabama.
* Functional blocker but not great in that area from what I've seen.
+ Got a short out for a first down thanks to a crack pick play on the second play of the game vs Alabama.
THE CORNERBACK SITUATION
Kalon Gervin has been pretty good this year as a starting cornerback. The deep pass allowed against Northwestern wasn’t on him. He has improved as a tackler and seems to have improved his speed. I’m not ready to say he is a plus player, but he will get tested in this game and we will learn more about him after four quarters in Miami.
At the other cornerback position, Ronald Williams Jr. started against Northwestern. Williams, a transfer from Alabama, gave up a deep ball out of press coverage. Williams attempted an off-hand jam on that play but didn’t seem to get enough contact and then stumbled as the WR seemed to surprise him with his burst (the WR being that transfer from Kansas who is pretty good).
“Ronald played okay in the first week and we thought he could play and he thought he could play better,” Barnett said. “He wasn’t happy with his performance, and he worked hard at it last week and when he got in the game last week he did a good job and he’s done a good job this week as well.”
Chester Kimbrough started in place of Williams against Youngstown State.
“As far as Chester, he got in last week, showing what he can do,” Barnett said. “He knows what we want him to be able to do and he’s showing that he can do it.”
Kimbrough played 43 snaps last week and Williams played 38.
“It’s a good battle going on,” Barnett said. “There’s a standard that we are going to hold those guys to and they understand that. They’re starting to apply it and now competition is really real, and best players play.”
Bottom line: Kimbrough and Williams are two capable cornerbacks, both hungry to show they can start and star at this level. They come from power SEC programs but are still getting used to starting jobs. There’s a chance they could improve steadily as the season evolves, starting now. They will be hungry for this matchup, feeling at home back in the deep south. But are they ready for what Miami will throw at them? They might give up a play or two but I don’t see Michigan State CBs vs Miami WRs being a 60-minute problem. They’ll hit some. Michigan State needs to limit the damage and I think Michigan State is capable of doing so.
On a hot day, Michigan State will need to play three or four cornerbacks. Michigan State was wise to get Kimbrough and Chuck Brantley into the game last week. Brantley is a true freshman from Venice, Fla. He will be needed to pitch some relief innings for Gervin, and Brantley will also be eager to do so back in his home state.
With the heat, and Miami’s use of uptempo offense, it was imperative to get Kimbrough and Brantley established last week. Brantley played 34 snaps last week. Will that pay dividends this week? It should help keep Michigan State fresh at the position. That doesn’t guarantee success, but it helps.
MSU RUN DEFENSE VS MIAMI RUN GAME
We’ve looked at key components of all the other matchups, but most coaches will tell you that the key to winning any game is stopping the run or establishing the run.
MSU’s run defense has been inconsistent.
Northwestern RBs gained 114 yards on 21 attempts (5.4 per carry). 49 of those yards came on the first play of the second half.
On that play, no one for Michigan State got bulldozed. Michigan State just had three defenders focused on a two-man bubble pass threat to the field. Michigan State walked nickel back Michael Dowell out there to help the CB and safety keep an eye on the two WRs to the field.
That’s one of the biggest differences between MSU’s current defensive mindset and the Dantonio regime.
Michigan State wouldn’t have had Dowell out there putting 3 defenders over 2 WRs to the field. He would have been a linebacker, and in tighter to the box to take away the run first. (And Northwestern would have thrown to the field versus the softer coverage and done it all day and frustrated Michigan State fans with the cat-and-mouse pass. You’ve seen Northwestern do that before).
So it’s a game of robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Michigan State left the ground defense on thinner ice on that place by walking the nickel man out to the two-WR side of the field.
From there, Northwestern had a nice little lead-blocker H-back insert at the B-gap. He put a good isolation block on inside linebacker Quavaris Crouch.
Crouch hit-and-shed the block from outside-in. That’s okay, but safety Xavier Henderson was coming down to support the run defense and also was outside-in. Those two ended up basically in the same gap.
Should Crouch have shed that thing from inside-out? Probably not. Michigan State usually wants to leverage things from outside in.
Did Henderson come down too thin and read the thing wrong? Or was he unsure how his new teammate Crouch was going to defend it? Could have been either or both. Henderson ended up being unable to make the tackle, by a half step.
Dowell tried to pursue the alley from the field and make the tackle before it got out, but the umpire got in his way and the RB was gone. (Gervin chased it down to make the tackle).
Long story short: Michigan State held Northwestern tailbacks to 3.2 yards per carry on all other carries that night. One little one gets out and it can change the game. Miami has better speed and game-breaking ability at RB than Northwestern. Miami RB Cam’Ron Harris is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and has 128 yards on the season.
Harris (5-10, 210, Jr., Opa-Locka, Fla.) started 10 games last year and rushed for 643 yards (5.1 per carry) and 10 rushing TDs. He had 18 catches for 131 yards last year
Harris is pretty good. Not great, behind an enigmatic offensive line. Harris (No. 23) rushed for 91 yards on 18 carries against App State with a long of 19.
His back-up RB, Donald Chaney Jr.) (5-10, 208) was lost for the season to an ACL injury last week. They will miss him. Chaney had a short TD last week and a good, tough 26-yard run on a zone read carry last week.
Miami’s offensive line was criticized last year. They had trouble against Alabama (no shame there, join the club).
The Miami o-line didn’t look bad to me last week. Miami rushed for 175 yards. King had 79 of those. As a runner, King got loose a few times on scramble keepers. He had 19 carries on the night, with more than 10 of them being zone read keepers or designed keepers - he wasn’t as effective on those. In fact, the crowd booed midway through the second half on one occasion after a designed keeper on first down and then a zone read keeper on second down went nowhere.
Miami’s run game is decent, not great. MSU’s run defense has been suspect.
Last week, YSU rushed for 167 yards against Michigan State, with the QB doing 69 yards of tough damage on 18 carries. The YSU QB was effective with third-down, chain-moving keepers.
YSU’s dangerous little RB, McLaughlin, had only 34 yards on 13 carries. I was correct in saying that Michigan State would be able to bottle him up but Michigan State was not nearly as dominant in the defensive line against a mediocre YSU o-line as I expected. The lack of Beesley, Jordan and DT Jalen Hunt had something to do with that (Hunt played a couple of snaps but then had to sit for a second straight week).
So we’re still learning about MSU’s run defense and personnel in the front seven.
Bottom line: I don’t think Miami’s run game is good enough to put a huge dent in this game and I don’t think MSU’s run defense is good enough or bad enough to be a major bellwether in this game.
That being said, ability to stop the run or establish the run is always a key factor in a game. I’m just not sensing that either side will tilt the scales in this part of the matchup.
MIAMI STYLE OF PLAY ON OFFENSE
They do a lot of what Michigan State does, but with a QB with livelier legs.
You’ll see the pistol formation, zone read option and RPOs. You’ll see the diamond formation out of the pistol.
Michigan State pulls linemen with counters more often than Miami.
Miami will flood the boundary with three receivers more than Michigan State has shown.
Miami will occasionally go with quads (four receivers to one side).
Other than that, these two teams play a similar style of offensive football.
Miami will use uptempo more often than Michigan State.
SPECIAL TEAMS NOTE
Miami's punter, 26-year-old Australian Lou Hedley, set an FBS all-time record in net punting last year at 44.9 yards. He does the rugby punt and gives gunners time to get down the field. Miami has great speed in its coverage units and this part of their outfit is tied pretty well together.
Xavier Restrepo, mentioned earlier as a WR, is a good punt returner.
ADD IT ALL UP
It’s a race. Who is going to improve first? Will Michigan State keep making strides on defense, with Crouch and Grose gaining a footing as they learn? Will Beesley and Jordan return to bolster a questionable defensive end picture? Is the combination of Kimbrough and Williams ready to be an impact tag team at the left cornerback position? Is Brantley ready to provide reliable relief for Gervin? Is Gervin indeed on an upward trajectory as a player? Is Hunt healthy and ready to make an impact for the first time since the Northwestern game of LAST year? At that time, Michigan State d-coordinator Scottie Hazelton considered Hunt one of the three best defensive players on the team. He went out in that game and missed the rest of the year, and then went out with a lower body injury against Northwestern and played only two snaps last week. He’s doing what he can do, but in a game like this, Michigan State could use some heroes.
As for the rest of the race, is Thorne ready to go on the road, in the heat, against the fastest athletes he’s ever played against, and remain the same calm, precise thrower he’s been thus far this year? At some point in his career, Thorne will become that guy. Is he ready to do it NOW? The race is on.
As for the rest of the race, is the Michigan State o-line ready to show that it can get the job done against foes that are faster and more aggressive than what they faced in the first two weeks? MSU’s o-line is deep and experienced. They’ve played against monsters in the past. This Miami defensive front isn’t great. They have some excellent individuals, but it’s not an overly fearsome group. But they are fast and aggressive. MSU’s o-line is poised, mature and eager to live up to a standard that it failed to set for itself in the past two or three years with many of these guys having been part of those disappointments.
They helped pave the way for Walker to rush for 264 yards against Northwestern. They saw App State have some success against a defensive front that lacked gap integrity on that night. The Michigan State o-line is hungry to show it is ahead of the pace in this race. But we need to see it to believe it.
As for the rest of the race, can Diaz get his defensive front to play core principles, and host gaps with discipline rather than jumping out of responsibilities to play hero ball? If they don’t get that fixed, if Miami shows the same propensity to make gap errors and coverage busts, the Hurricanes will have a hard, hard time winning this game.
Pundits and experts try to find matchups that will tilt the scales in games like this. Coaches believe that most games come down to five or six pivotal plays. Could be a kickoff return for a TD (like App State had against Miami last week), could be a pass deflection resulting in an interception at the 5-yard line and a short field for a TD drive (like Miami had last week against App State), could be a deep pass that gets loose against Michigan State to negate many positive downs for the Spartans that didn’t end up in points. Or it could be a blocked punt, like the one Michigan State allowed last week, or a punt return for a TD, like Michigan State allowed on two occasions last year. The race includes Michigan State’s need to prove it doesn’t have a systemic problem in the punt game.
I suspect that’s what this game will come down to: five or six loose or explosive plays that negate a pretty even struggle at the line of scrimmage, with Thorne and King going back and forth making a fair amount of plays. As far as QB mistakes, I see either team with an advantage or disadvantage in that area at this time. King has much more experience, but I think both QBs are somewhat equal in terms of avoiding major mistakes.
Slight chance Michigan State establishes control with the run game, gets Walker going, finding daylight, and Miami becomes less gap-disciplined as frustration sets in, and then the play-action pass game undresses Miami the way App State did a couple of times. Can Michigan State get a ball rolling like that and increase its momentum while the afternoon heat becomes more and more of a factor? I kind of doubt it, but it’s possible. I would give Michigan State a better chance of establishing this type of ground-and-pound advantage in a neutral setting with heat not a factor. I just need to see it to believe it in 95-degree temperatures. I would be very, very impressed if Michigan State was able to do that. It’s possible.
Overall, I’ll stick with my 53 percent expectation that Michigan State will do enough at QB and in the run game to protect an edge on the scoreboard. That’s what I’m expecting to see, based on the body of work that each team has shown in two games. That’s what I’m expecting, that’s not a prediction. The bodies of work are still be established and this season is still being written, but Saturday’s chapter is going to be a pivotal one.
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