I have to get to the airport, so I had to get this done early.
I haven't finished the video to go with it, and I have to get on the road, so here we go:
PRE-SNAP READ: Michigan State vs Minnesota
By Jim Comparoni
Publisher
SpartanMag.com
MINNEAPOLIS - I don’t think there’s much of a chance of Michigan State getting too full of themselves and overlooking the task at Minnesota.
This is MSU’s first road game, first flight, first business trip together for this edition of the team. They liked practicing and playing together before. Now, after last week, they love it.
They had a good, physical, accountable win at Michigan last week. But there are/were plenty of things to clean up, such as:
* Getting the ground game going, getting the tailbacks heated up.
* Getting the o-line squared away on what happened in losing too many one-on-one battles in the second half last week (maybe five or six occasions, spoiling drives).
* Getting David Dowell, who played well, squared away on a coverage bust or two that Michigan State had in that game (one which QB O’Korn didn’t see on a TE deep route vs cover-three; and one for a TD which was called back due to holding).
It’s great to be a Spartan football player right now. Big win over Michigan, improving, coming together, maturing, 4-1, on the road, need to keep improving, keep chasing excellence.
I think the Spartans will be playing themselves, playing the sport, more so than the Gophers in this game. I expect Michigan State to be eager, and engaged.
These might be two teams trending in opposite directions.
Minnesota was strong early in the year, including impressive wins against Middle Tennessee State and Oregon State (two teams that aren’t all that good, in fact Oregon State is awful).
But still, Minnesota looked pretty good there for awhile.
But they’ve been hit by injury in the defensive backfield and at WR, and have had some issues at o-line that might be subsiding.
But this is a Minnesota team that is having trouble deciding whether to play more true freshmen and try to salvage a season, or keep their seed corn stored for times ahead.
Minnesota looked pretty good at times against a fairly decent Maryland team two weeks ago, but the injuries kept mounting, and the Gophers looked less than good last week in a sloppily-played game between the Gophers and Boilermakers.
I watched the first quarter of that game and rewatched it and felt that Minnesota looked like a team that would lose 35-14 to Michigan State. Minnesota looked a step slow in the middle of the field on defense. And they looked like they featured the type of running attack (the inside zone) that Michigan State is most comfortable defending, and they looked like they had another one of these mediocre QBs that Michigan State has been facing all year.
Then I watched the whole game again, and then the Maryland game.
Minnesota made enough plays against Maryland, and Minnesota’s defensive players - many of whom won’t look like good eye test players at first glance - hung in there long enough to make me think the Gophers could hold it to something like 28-17. But what’s more likely, a TD swing in Minnesota’s direction to make it 21-17 Michigan State as a final score, or a TD swing in MSU’s direction to make it 28-10? I think the latter.
Those of you who have been getting the Pre-Snap Read know that I don’t often predict scores. But this time, I have to call it like I feel it. Minnesota isn’t a bad team, they just look like the type of outfit that will lose the majority of the snaps against a team like Michigan State.
If both teams play their B game, Michigan State wins by 14 to 17.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
Minnesota’s defense has a couple of guys with good quickness. One at outside linebacker (13, Jon Celestin), one at stand-up DE (45, Carter Coughlin).
At too many other positions, Minnesota is a half-step slow. It might not show up, down-in and down-out. But there is too much of a likelihood to spring a play that might go for 7 yards against Michigan that can get out for 40 yards against Minnesota.
Minnesota doesn’t have much of a pass rush. Brian Lewerke, behind an increasingly-trusted offensive line, will have time to operate.
Minnesota has a dinged-up secondary. Maryland attacked CB No. 34 mercilessly. No, a new guy is in the lineup, No. 16, and he’s coming off winter ACL surgery, and not quite ready for prime time. But Minnesota has to go with him.
If 34 and 16 are playing CB, Michigan State should be able to pick on either of them.
Minnesota held Purdue to 132 yards rushing. Maryland broke out for 262 yards rushing, with quick zone read action, not quite the style of MSU’s run game. But Maryland’s quickness hurt Minnesota.
Michigan State has had trouble getting its running backs going this year. This game will give the Spartans a chance to get that ground game rolling. Minnesota isn’t bad on defense, but Michigan State has the type of balanced offense to keep the Gophers’ safeties out of the box, and a diversified running attack into a rhythm.
Minnesota has some decently firm defensive tackles. But you can watch their d-line for quite a while and not see any of them beat anybody. They have some catchers in the front seven.
It’s time for the Michigan State ground game, namely the tailbacks, to start holding up their end of the bargain.
MSU’s offensive front has been weather-proofed mentally and physically in the last two weeks against a pair of good-to-outstanding defensive fronts in Michigan and Iowa.
MSU’s blockers have been continuing their preparation with that type of opposition in mind, holding themselves to a high challenge. But Minnesota won’t be nearly as physical as Iowa, not nearly as quick as Michigan into the gaps, or as quick to close as Michigan.
Michigan State will be more physical than Maryland or Purdue. MSU’s QB and WR combination will be more diversified and dangerous than anything Minnesota has seen.
I add it all up and I can’t figure out what Vegas sees that makes this a 5-point spread.
I don’t talk about the spread much in the Pre-Snap Read series. Usually, I don’t want to know the spread before I write this thing. But I saw on a message board that the spread was around -5 with Michigan State favored.
I think of the injuries that Minnesota has, and I look at the things Michigan State is doing in the trenches, and at QB and WR and in the defensive backfield, and I think this could be a dreadful game for the Gophers.
The threat of rain dampens things a bit, could help keep it a bit closer. Or Michigan State might be more-equipped to operate in it after last week - although Michigan State didn’t set the world on fire offensively in the downpour. But the opposite will be quite easier this time, theoretically.
I assume there is someone in Vegas setting that line who is better at watching film than I am. Or perhaps there’s some algorithm or formula that suggests that Michigan State is going to struggle in this game.
I suspect that they set that line for the public, a public that saw Michigan State get blown out (scoreboard-wise) against Notre Dame. But you and I know that margin was about turnovers, and Michigan State did some decent things in that game at the line of scrimmage.
The same public might have respected MSU’s victory over Michigan, but felt Michigan State’s offense is terrible and barely eked out a victory despite not being able to move the ball in the second half.
Well, you and I know that the weather and circumstances had something to do with that, and MSU’s offensive output in the first half against the nation’s No. 1 defense was pretty good.
And Michigan State’s defense doesn’t get any credit for shutting down another opponent?
The betting public might expect a letdown, but Mark Dantonio is very mindful about MSU’s performances the week after the Michigan game and Michigan State usually plays quite well the next week.
Also, Michigan State often challenges itself to take its game up a level in order to face the Wolverines, and then Michigan State often matches or approaches or exceeds that same level in the following weeks. In other words, Michigan State resets its best level of play for the Michigan game, and then does a good job of maintaining that best level of play in subsequent weeks. That happened in the championship years, and it happened last year even during a terrible season.
I like MSU’s matchups with the Spartan pass rush against questionable Gopher pass protection.
I like MSU’s tight, varied pass defenses against a shaky, inconsistent QB who telegraphs passes and doesn’t have a great stable of WRs to throw to (assuming that Minnesota will stick with former walk-on senior and first-year starter Conor Rhoda).
I like MSU’s excellent run defense to contain (at least) or totally shut down a pretty decent Minnesota running attack.
I like MSU’s WR’s ability to match up against 34 or 16.
I would be very disappointed in Michigan State if the Spartans win by less than a touchdown.
This game is a chance for Michigan State to go on the road for its first business trip, handle that business, and feel even better about itself in seeking a 5-1 start to the first half of the season, and a continued new beginning to the next chapter of the Dantonio era, with new standouts and new leaders forging the path. This week, the path goes through Minneapolis, and Michigan State is the team trending hungrily upward, and the Gophers are the team seeking damage control.
TRENDS & OBSERVATIONS
* Minnesota vs Purdue was not good football. A lot of young players, a lot of tardiness.
* Minnesota is a team hurt by injuries with a first-year head coach torn between burning redshirts or sacrificing the season, torn between reinstating a pair of suspended upper classmen (one at back-up QB and the other at safety) or lengthening the disciplinary lesson.
* PJ Fleck is the first year coach. You know all about him.
Their offense this year isn’t nearly as exciting as he is.
They are a ground-based offense, featuring the inside zone. It’s similar to the things Western Michigan did, but WMU might have done it better, which just as good of running backs as Minnesota’s fine RBs.
WHERE MINNESOTA COULD HURT MSU:
* Not much comes to mind. Their defense occasionally makes plays, but not in a downhill, relentless, problematic type of way. They will sit in a cover-four zone on most plays and Michigan State should be able to sit receivers down into those open areas, or probe with comebacks and curls in the middle, or digs to the middle of the field. There should be some low-hanging fruit for Lewerke.
Minnesota hasn’t been explosive on specials teams.
Their run game was good at Oregon State, but Oregon State’s defense ranks in the bottom 2 percentile of the country.
Michigan State should be equipped to take Minnesota’s run-game strength away from them, or at least contain it.
Minnesota’s QB had a moment or two against Maryland, connected on a couple of 20-yard outs to the wide side of the field that were pretty good.
He didn’t attempt many deep passes against Purdue and Maryland, maybe five or six in all. He connected on one, to the 1-yard line, setting up a game-tying TD in the fourth quarter.
He has thrown some decent deep balls. He’s not terrible at it. But his WRs are almost never running free. They aren’t the type of WRs who can blow the top off a defense.
So where might Minnesota be dangerous? I struggle to find an area. That’s where the idea of Michigan State possibly becoming its own worst enemy is a theory.
What are the chances that Minnesota rights Fleck’s boat and they come back strong to stop the bleeding, overcome their injuries, get their QB straightened out, stop their losing streak and cool off the suddenly-hot Spartans? Not great, in my opinion.
I usually subscribe to the idea that the team that NEEDS to win the most has a natural advantage. Judging by the records, you would think that team is Minnesota. But I think Michigan State is still the team out of these two that NEEDS to win the most.
THE LATEST ON MINNESOTA:
* Minnesota has led every game in the fourth quarter. That’s kind of a good testament to them and the coach because in watching this team it seems to me that PJ Fleck was left with a cupboard that was less than half-stocked. It wasn’t bare. But this is and was more of a rebuilding job than their 9-4 record of a year ago would suggest.
* Last year, they had Matt Leidner at QB. This year, they don’t have much.
* Last year they had crafty 6-3 WR Drew Wolitarsky, who had 66 catches. This year, they’re inconsistent at WR.
* The Gophers will be without four former starters against Michigan State, three of which went down with injuries last week against Purdue.
* A CB, a WR and an offensive tackle were injured against Purdue and won’t play against Michigan State.
* Safety Antoine Winfield will miss a second straight game with a hamstring injury. He was regarded as their best coverage man.
* Fleck often refers to this year as “Year Zero,” an indication that implementing his program is more important than the record this year.
* QB Conor Rhoda has not been good. There’s a chance Minnesota could shake things up with reinstated QB Demry Croft, who was suspended for team reasons in early September. He is much more of a runner than Rhoda. Minnesota began the season with those two as co-starters. Rhoda beat him out after the win at Oregon State.
* Rhoda has struggled recently. Fleck said earlier this week that we (media) could put an “or” next to all four QBs listed on their official depth chart.
I don’t know much about Croft or the freshmen behind him. From what I’ve seen of Rhoda, he’s quite beatable enough, if I’m Michigan State. I wouldn’t mind having that guy in, if I’m Michigan State.
EARLIER GAMES
* Beat pesky U of Buffalo, 17-7, on opening night. Buffalo is 3-3 after losing to Western Michigan in overtime last week.
* Beat Oregon State 48-14 on the road. Oregon State is 1-5, and fired its coach this week. Oregon State’s defense ranks No. 128 out of 130.
(The 49 points were the most by a Gopher team on the road since 1980 at Northwestern).
* Beat Middle Tennessee State, 34-3. (Middle Tennessee State is now 3-3 after losing its best WR and QB).
* Lost to Maryland 31-24 at home two weeks ago.
* Maryland was a double-digit favorite for this game.
* Maryland cut off Minnesota’s main artery by stopping the run, holding the Gophers to 80 yards rushing.
Minnesota turned in some good work in tying Maryland at 24-24 with 3:45 to play. Lost the game on a 32-yard smoke draw with about a minute left. Prior to that Maryland successfully, frequently, picked on No. 34 CB Shenault.
LAST WEEK: Lost to Purdue, 31-17.
Purdue led 17-16 with a couple of minutes left.
Purdue drove and scored to go ahead with less than a minute left, with the big play being a third-down shallow crosser vs gimpy replacement CB 16 Coney Durr.
* Purdue turned it over three times in the first half but came back to win. By the time Purdue battled back and cut the Minnesota lead to 14-13, the Boilermakers had 15 first downs compared to 7 for the Gophers.
The first down totals ended up 22-17 in favor of Purdue.
Purdue out-gained Minnesota 439-328.
Minnesota was up 17-16 with 1:40 to go.
“To have five plays or whatever it was and go right down the field (to take the lead), it's unacceptable and 100% fault is on me,” Fleck said.
Fleck conveys the idea that he is having to play guys that he doesn’t think are good enough.
“ We have to understand that everybody on this football team will play this year and we’ve proven that,” he said. “We prove that in the secondary. We're proving that on the D-line.”
THE TO DO LIST:
* The Michigan State defense might be able to control and possibly dominate this game either way it chooses - by bringing a safety down near the box and over-play the run against a run-centric team that struggles to throw, with run-blitzed mixed in. Just shut them down and dominate. Or Michigan State might be able to stop the run with the standard 7, and get heat on the QB with the standard 4. But where’ the fun in that?
* On offense: Probe the perimeter with “Now” routes to the WR to the field, maybe a wide, two-man jailbreak screen (Purdue popped one off for about 50 yards). MINNESOTA seems a step slow in pursuing from the inside out. Put them in space, make it a race, you could spring a few guys loose.
* On offense, attack No. 16. He is coming back from ACL surgery. Was forced into action in the fourth quarter last week. Didn’t look fast. They are very thin at CB, due to injury. They’re talking about moving a WR or two to that position. 16, Coney Durr (5-10, 191, Soph., Baton Rouge, La.) can be targeted.
* But, if you follow what Maryland did, attack No. 34. They really went at him in the first half, especially on third down vs press, then hit him for a TD on an out-and-up.
THE MUST LIST:
* As usual, don’t turn the ball over. Against good teams, turnovers will result in defeat. Against beatable opponents who are struggling such as Minnesota, turnovers will keep them in the game and give them confidence.
Either way, don’t give it away.
Lewerke has improved in this area.
* Stop the run. That’s a key every week too. But the ramifications of it change from week to week. This week, if you stop the run, Minnesota isn’t likely to consistently be able to do much through the air to hang with you, if Michigan State’s offense has the B-plus level of success that I’m expecting against a game but defective Gophers defense.
GOPHERS’ RUN GAME :
* Minnesota rushed 58 times for 253 yards and five TDs against Oregon State. That figure, plus WMU’s success against USC, really really makes me wonder about ground defense in the Pac-12.
* The Gophers are a heavy inside zone team. Like Western Michigan. Their o-line might not be as good as WMU’s. Their QB is better than WMU’s was. Their RBs are similarly effective, although differ in style from WMU’s.
MSU’s first indication that the Spartans were going to field a strong defense this year came in the opener against WMU. Michigan State has improved since then. There’s a chance Michigan State stifles these guys.
* In addition to the conventional inside zone, Minnesota will mix in a sweep with two o-linemen pulling, usually to the field side.
You’ll see that five or six times, usually with No. 1 (RB Rodney Smith, 5-11, 209, Jr.) carrying the ball. He has good cutback vision, so don’t overpursue on the sweep. Michigan State has to figure out a way to whip back those pulling linemen. They’ve been working it all week. Michigan State will have a plan, and they’ll work it well.
* Minnesota will mix in the fly sweep, with the RB as the fly sweeper. Usually No. 23 (RB Shannon Brooks, 6-0, 213, Jr.) on the fly sweep. Like six or seven times a game. They revisit plays more than most opponents.
If 23 is in motion, fly sweep alert.
And if he carries on the fly sweep, the next play when he goes in motion for the same look he WON’T get the ball for a second straight fly sweep. It’s either a fake fly sweep then inside zone, or a play-action pass. Don’t fear the play -action pass, they aren’t that good at it.
* They mix in some zone read, but it’s not really a read because they don’t want the QB (when it’s Rhoda) to keep the ball.
If the suspended back-up Croft plays, THEN the QB keeper becomes a true option and things change.
Maryland didn’t respect Rhoda on the zone read at all and sent the unblocked optioned defender straight at the RB. They did this well enough that Rhoda HAD to keep it once or twice, just to make that part of the playbook retain its ink.
* If Croft plays at QB, he is much more of a run threat. He had a 68-yard run against Oregon State.
* Fleck suspended Croft in early September. He has been reinstated but Fleck hasn’t said whether he will play.
* Rhoda and Croft shared QB duty at the outset of the season, but Rhoda became the man after the Oregon State game.
Will they play Croft? Well, Fleck does not HAVE to win right now. So he might be more set on sending messages and instilling long-term discipline than compromising himself and playing a guy sooner than he had originally planned. When did he plan to reactivate Croft? He’s not saying.
Same with their situation at safety with previously-suspended Duke McGhee.
GAMBLER, FLECK
* Minnesota went for it on fourth-and-one on their second possession of the game AT THEIR OWN 35-yard line last week, after a terrible start, falling behind 7-0 with some stale errors. They picked it up with a 1-yard run, inside zone, out of pistol. LT 73 did a decent job with a down block.
MINNESOTA OFFENSE
* Minnesota is suffering from not having much of a pass threat. And their QB is not much of a run threat.
“We got to be able to create separation on the outside,” he said.
“For us to run the ball better, guys on the outside have to make better plays,” Fleck said. “We don’t have the fifth-year senior who’s caught 120 balls and you can say, ‘I’m going to rely on that bell cow.’
“We’re going to do what our offensive linemen can do,” he added.
Their o-line is solid, not all that good. Not as good as Iowa’s or Michigan’s.
Maryland held Minnesota to 80 yards rushing (2.6 per carry). Maryland usually went with a single safety deep, stopped the run with an extra man in the box, and didn’t feel Minnesota’ QB/WR combination could beat press coverage and take advantage of all the green space created by removing a safety from pass defense.
INSIDE MINNESOTA’S PERSONNEL:
Running backs first, they are Minnesota’s most accomplished players:
RUNNING BACKS
1 RB RODNEY SMITH (5-11, 209, Jr., Jonesboro, Ga.)
* 21 carries, 81 yards last week against Purdue, including a 51-yarder.
* Had 18 carries for 35 yards against Maryland.
* Averaging 79 yards rushing per game and 3.7 per carry.
* 2,226 career yards.
* Was a 5.4 two-star. Took official visits to Minn, and East Carolina. Also had offers from App State, Jacksonville State, and southern directionals. Committed a week before signing day.
* Rushed for 1,158 yards last year and 16 TDs (third most in school history).
* 23 catches last year.
* Can jump and skip around with pretty good vision.
* They like the counter sweep with him.
* Good cut-back, jump-cut guy. Back side linebacker MUST pursue to SMith’s back hip. Don’t go too fast, too far after him as the back-side pursuit guy, or he will cut behind you.
As Lou Tepper used to teach, 80 pct of long RB runs happen when they CUT BEHIND THE BACK SIDE LINEBACKER. He said to look it up. I’ve noticed it ever since. And that’s what happened on his 50-yarder last week. Power sweep left, cutback right behind the back side LB.
Whether it’s A Dowell, or C Frey (or Ty Thompson or Ant Simmons), when No. 1 is carrying the ball, pursue his back hip. Don’t over-pursue, rely on your teammates.
ALERT: They sent him deep on a wheel once last week too.
23 RB SHANNON BROOKS (6-0, 213, Jr., Atlanta)
* 18 carries, 116 yards last week against Purdue, including a 40-yarder.
* 12 carries for 39 yards against Maryland.
* Averaging 78 yards per game and 4.8 per rush.
+ Converted a fourth-and-one on an inside zone last week in the first quarter.
* Rushed for 650 yards last year.
* Decent power as short-yardage guy. Picked up fourth-and-one on inside zone pistol last week.
* Quick feet, not extra-gear fast. But quick pedals.
* Looks shorter than 6-feet.
* Had a 40-yard run last week on an inside (split) zone, with wham action by 6-10 TE. Purdue was not gap sound. Brooks not fast enough to take it to the house.
* Had a 16-yarder on a fly sweep. They’ll put him at WR and fly sweep him. Alert that.
QUARTERBACK
QB CONOR RHODA (6-3, 225, Sr., Eagen, Minn.)
* Completing 55 pct of his passes with 5 TDs and 4 INTs.
* Averaging 157 yards passing per game.
* Was a no-star walk-on QB, had an offer from North Dakota State.
* Played in only three games last year. Was 8 of 16 last year with 1 TD.
* Did not play as a sophomore in 2015. Played in two games in 2014.
He’s truly a Joe off the pickle boat.
But Fleck didn’t have much talent at QB and talked him into coming back for one last year.
Conor Rhoda battled for the job during camp with Demry Croft during the spring, fall camp and into September. They began the season in a two-QB system.
Rhoda gained the upper hand during a convincing win over Oregon State. Then Croft was suspended on Sept. 12 for disciplinary reasons and is expected to be back now. Fleck wouldn’t say whether Croft would play vs Michigan State.
Rhoda completed 11 of 25 passes for 101 yards and two touchdowns in the 31-17 loss at Purdue. He also lost a fumble at the Boilermakers 7-yard-line and threw a fourth-down interception from the Purdue 27 that was returned 76 yards for a touchdown with 10 seconds left in the game.
“With Conor, he keeps making these killer turnovers in the red zone at crucial points,” Fleck said after last Saturday’s game.
During Monday’s weekly presser, Fleck was asked about Rhoda losing his QB job.
“If there was a better answer today, I would have somebody else in there. That’s not the better answer,’’ Fleck said. “He’s the better answer for our football team.”
Not a ringing endorsement.
“He’s proven that he can run this offense very efficiently,” Fleck said. “But he’s also made mistakes. What I want to be able to say is, ‘Watch him grow from those mistakes.’ ’’
Rhoda completed 11 of 25 passes for 101 yards and two touchdowns in the 31-17 loss to Purdue. He also lost a fumble at the Boilermakers’ 7-yard-line and threw a fourth-down interception from the Purdue 27 that was returned 76 yards for a touchdown with 10 seconds left in the fourth quarter.
**
Overall, I thought Rhoda was not good against Purdue, the type of QB that Michigan State might really shut down.
Then I watched the Maryland game and saw Rhoda complete a few more quality passes than I thought he might be capable of.
Against Maryland, he was 13 of 26 for 229 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs.
Plusses and minuses in the last two games:
+ Last week, connected with WR Rashad Still for about 30 yards to move the ball to the Purdue 30-yard line in the final minute.
Purdue kind of had a cover-three bust on that play. CB stopped playing the WR and tried to come back for the ball. Then the ball went over his head. Not good football played on this day. You’ll hear me say that a lot.
- Telegraphed a slant against a zone blitz, had it picked off and returned for a TD in the final seconds last week, making it 31-17.
+ Connected with Phillip Howard (WR, 25) on a shallow crossing for a gain of 25 in the 2Q vs Maryland. One of the few times Rhoda threw it over the middle comfortably and on-time last week, although it was caught only 5 yards downfield.
- Intercepted in the red zone vs Maryland in the second quarter, a little slow with the delivery, telegraphed a dig but the WR Tyler Johnson still should have caught it, went through his hands, tip drill INT.
= He will attempt the 17-yard out to the wide side, like once a game, but seems to leave it in the air too long, not quite enough zip. Not bad accuracy, but can he drive that thing into the small, quick windows of Michigan State?
+ Decent pass to Tyler Johnson while on the run after being flushed with 10 minutes to go vs Maryland, but Johnson failed to catch a semi-diving catch, on the move, shallow crossing route. Not a bad ball, Johnson is a decent WR, but kind of ran out of talent on that play.
+ Nice pass 26 yards to 6 WR Tyler Johnson on a post corner, to the field side. Decent ball.
+ Deep post to WR Eric Carter (5-11, 193, Sr., Lakeland, Fla.) to the goal line for about 45 yards.
- INT in the final minute vs Maryland, down by 7 point, telegraphing a dig route.
* Minnesota likes the TEs inside the 12 yard line, and on third down.
= Threw it downfield for a chunk attempt only once in the first half last week, and that was near the end of the first half. From left hash, accurate deep ball, but left it in the air a little too long against pretty good coverage, knocked away INC. Intended for TE Lingen. Not the best deep threat you’re going to find, but a guy Rhoda trusts.
* ALERT: Rhoda stares down receivers and is sometimes late in delivering, which sometimes leaves his guys out to dry for big hits. This will easily be the fastest, smartest most well-positioned defense he has faced. I am afraid for Minnesota that some of their receivers (WRs, TEs, RBs) could get hung out to dry for some big hits.
* He kind of hung WR Phillip Howard out to dry on the second play last week. Howard got hit hard, knocked out of the game and out for this week.
QB 11 DEMRY CROFT (6-5, 205, Soph. Rockford, Ill.)
* Played in two games prior to getting suspended.
* 7 of 12 passing on the year for 63 yards with 0 TDs and O INTs.
* Had a 64-yard TD run against Oregon State.
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 18 in Illinois and the No. 28 dual threat QB in the nation.
13 QB TANNER MORGAN (6-2, 205, Fr., Union, Ky.)
* A Fleck recruit they are trying to redshirt. I assume he won’t play. But who the hell knows. He is listed No. 3.
17 QB SETH GREEN (6-4, 229, R-Fr., Woodbury, Minn.)
* Has been the back-up while Croft was suspended. Green, of Minneapolis, was recruited by Michigan State and has known Michigan State ’s QB coach Brad Salem since he was a kid. I assume he won’t play, but who the hell knows. He is listed No. 4.
WIDE RECEIVERS, in order of importance:
* Minnesota is lacking proven performers, and have been hurt by injury. Fleck says they aren’t getting separation. Defenses don’t respect them, or the QB’s ability to deliver, and can load up to stop the run. That’s what Maryland did.
(Demetrious Douglas was the team’s leading receiver when he was lost for the season in game three.)
(One of their support WRs, Phillip Howard, isn’t expected to play. Head injury last week. But Fleck put him on the two-deep, Tuesday, one day after saying he was out).
WR PERSONNEL
6 WR TYLER JOHNSON (6-2, 190, Soph., Minneapolis)
* Leading receiver with 17 catches and 3 TDs.
* Kind of a Cam Chambers type, even though we haven’t seen a lot of Cam Chambers yet.
* Has some muscle to him, maybe not a burner threat. Their best WR at this point. They don’t have a lot of field-stretchers.
How He Matches Up With Michigan State:
* Either Michigan State CB should be able to cover him on the vast majority of plays. Put him in the slot and Khari Willis shouldn’t be afraid of him.
* Michigan State didn’t play back-up CBs Josh Butler and Tyson Smith nearly as much last week. Michigan State coaches say they expect to get back to working them in. Butler and Smith might not be as good as Justin Layne and Josiah Scott at locking up a guy like Johnson, but they shouldn’t be afraid of him. They can cover him.
* Michigan State will be able to mix its base with man-to-man, like they’ve done all year.
* Johnson was a 5.7 three-star recruit, ranked No. 3 in Minnesota and the no. 36 athlete by Rivals.com.
* Had more than 100 yards receiving in consecutive games, vs Oregon State and Middle Tennessee State.
* Averaging 73 yards receiving per game. Had a 67-yarder against Oregon State.
* Averaging 21.5 yards per catch, far and away better than anyone on the team.
* Last week: 2 catches for 15 yards against Purdue.
* Vs Maryland: 3 catches, 69 yards.
- Had a pass go through his hands for an INT at Maryland.
= Play action post drew pass interference vs Maryland, after Maryland had been creeping in to overplay the run. Decent inside release move by Johnson on that one.
+ Decent dig route of play action in the third quarter vs Md, but QB locked in on him all the way. QB called an audible to that play after Maryland showed single safety high, loaded box.
+ Good catch vs press, going high to nab a back shoulder fade in the third quarter vs Maryland.
+ Nice catch for 26 yards on a post corner, to the field side. Decent ball.
* Had 14 catches last year.
(25 WR PHILLIP HOWARD ? 5-11, 187, Fr., Minneapolis)
* Went down with a head injury against Purdue. But had only 6 catches on the year at that point.)
* But he as targeted early in the Purdue game, so the Gophers were hopeful he could be a guy.
* Is listed as a starter this week, a day after Fleck said on Monday that he would not be available to play against Michigan State.
8 WR MARK WILLIAMS (6-0, 195, Gainestown, Ala.)
* Will likely start in place of Phillip Howard.
* Was slowed by a foot injury during training camp.
9 WR ERIC CARTER (5-11, 193, Sr., Lakeland, Fla.)
+ Deep post to WR Eric Carter (5-11, 193, Sr., Lakeland, Fla.) to the goal line for about 45 yards.
86 TE BRANDON LINGON (6-5, 254, Sr., Wayzata, Minn).
* Third on the team with 9 catches, averaging 9.3 per catch, 2 TDs
* Was a 5.5 three-star recruit, No. 5 in Minnesota. Had offers from Air Force and Florida Atlantic.
* GOOD in the red zone. TD catch vs Maryland, stopped and faked an out cut, then kept heading down field. Good double move for a short TD catch to tie the game at 17 17 in the third quarter. Tricky target inside the 15-yard line.
+ TD catch last week in 2q, left wide open for a 1-yard TD off of play action. Rare occasion in which QB was under center. ALERT: when QB is under center, it might be play-action, especially if it’s second and goal.
* Slow. Caught a short 5-yard pass on third-and-six last week, as the free release guy. Slow off the line, turned and caught it.
* Had 33 catches last year, including 3 TDs.
TE NATE WOZNIAK (Greenwood, Ind.) is the 6-foot-10, 280 guy you may remember, through the years.
Has five catches on the year. Good blocker on the split zone, with wham blocks. Has grown into his frame pretty well.
He turned a short out route of a play action half roll into about a 30 yard gain against Maryland.
OFFENSIVE LINE
* Two redshirt freshmen start on the o-line, and true freshman Blaise Andries is listed as the back-up at both offensive tackle positions. Andries has yet to play, as they are trying to protect his redshirt.
* The right side of the line appeared to get stronger, and more movement, on zone plays late in the Maryland game.
THE MATCHUPS
* Minnesota does not look good at left tackle. I think Brandon Randle is poised to hit the stat sheet with a sack or two, and some pressure.
* 76 at RG not the most comfortable in pass pro. I think Raequan Williams could get on the sack board this week.
LT 73 DONNELL GREENE (6-7, 314, Jr., Marietta, Ga.)
* Second-year starter. Former juco transfer.
* Questionable mobility. Questionable pass pro.
* Occasionally good as a down blocker, but limited overall.
+ Good down block on fourth-and-one last week, getting more than a yard of movement on a Purdue DT.
+ Decent down block as part of a double team to spring 23 Brooks for a gain of 10 in the second quarter at Maryland on a day when other run plays were pretty dry for the Gophers.
LG 78 GARRISON WRIGHT (6-4, 319, Sr., Beattie, Kan.)
* Got out as a pull guard on a sweep in the 1Q last week, wasn’t natural. Went for a cut block, got it done, not pretty.
- Trouble passing off a stunt, allowed a flush pressure in 2q.
C 62 JARED WEYLER, 6-4, 296, Jr., Dayton, Ohio
* He missed the last two games. I haven’t scouted him. No opinion, but people seem happy that he will be back. Went down with an apparent leg injury earlier this year.
* Is a first-year starter.
C/G 64 CONNER OLSON (6-5, 297, R-Fr., Monticello, Minn)
* Is expected to return to RG after being a replacement starter at center for a couple of weeks. Not bad.
* Was a 5.5 three-star, No. 13 in Minnesota. Spring commitments over Ivy Leagues.
* Became starting center after Jared Weyler went down in the Oregon State game with a leg injury. Weyler is not expected to play.
- Was tossed aside once for a TFL in the red zone last week.
* Snap and pull on a sweep, not bad.
RG 76 VINCENT CALHOUN (6-4, 320, Sr., Roswell, Ga.)
- Failed to close off a blitzing LB, allowed a TFL in the third quarter last week. Seems a little unsure for a senior.
RT 70 SAM SCHLUETER (6-6, 298, R-Fr., Victoria, Minn.)
* Came off the bench for the first extended playing time of his career last week against Purdue, playing LT. I didn’t see enough from him to have an opinion.
* Took over for Nick Connelly, who was lost to a leg injury against Purdue.
* Schlueter was a 5.6 three-star, ranked No. 10 in Minnesota. Was a spring commitment, had an offer from Michigan State, ISU, Northwestern, Wisconsin.
DEFENSE
* Minnesota plays three down linemen and one stand-up defensive end.
* They tend to favor off zone coverage with two deep safeties, usually a quarters zone.
* Like a lot of teams, Minnesota seems to want to play tight man-to-man on third down. I’m not sure they have the coverage skill or experience to do this, plus it leaves things inviting for a running QB like Lewerke to tuck and run. I would expect MSU’s third-down PCT to be better than it’s been in recent weeks.
* Going to man-to-man on third down in the last two minutes caused Minnesota to give up a big pass play on a shallow crossing route vs. 16, the gimpy CB replacement. That wasn’t a good defensive call, and Fleck kind of acknowledged that after the game.
* When plays break into a little bit of daylight, Minnesota has too many guys who are a step slow to get going. Those add up over the course of a game. If Michigan State gets into a rhythm, you might see more than a handful of plays break out and a game of chase ensue.
* Minnesota has two true freshman starters on defense. Their second string defensive backfield includes two true freshmen who have yet to burn their redshirts.
DEFENSIVE LINE
* Some of their d-linemen are reasonably firm, but you can watch this group for a long time and rarely see any of them beat anyone.
DT 96 STEVEN RICHARDSON (6-0, 292, Sr., Chicago).
* Four-year starter.
* Third-team All-Big Ten last year. 11 TFLs last year.
* HM All-Big Ten as a sophomore.
* Was a 5.5 three-star from Mt. Carmel. No. 37 in Illinois. Was a spring commitment, over MAC schools.
* Squatty body. Not ideal frame, but gets things done.
* Can turn his hips quickly and knife into a gap. Slippery hips, like a shorter Jerel Worthy.
* Decent pass rush, turning the corner on a stunt to hit QB for INC in 3q last week.
“He is playing at a high level,” Fleck said. “He is seeing two people on every single play, and he’s still productive in QB hurries. He is playing the system as well as you can play it. It’s nice to have that anchor in the middle, knowing he is going to win his individual battles every single play.”
My Take: He’s pretty good, he’s not dominant. Michigan State has had some consistency problems with Tyler Higby and Kevin Jarvis at the guard positions.
No. 96 will give them a good test as they try to continue their development.
(They bring in 99 ANDREW STELTER, 6-4, 298, Sr., and 93 Merrick Jackson, 6-2, 316, Sr., as second-string DTs.
(They are functional Devyn Salmon types.
(You may remember Merrick Jackson getting a lot of tough love from Fleck in the preseason Being PJ Fleck show on ESPN, whatever it was called. Salmon type. Stelter SLOW in pursuit.)
Stelter (99) got off for a coverage sack and fumble recovery last week. Looked like the WRs for Purdue were run blocking. QB dropped back and wanted to pass it to someone, then panicked and fumbled. Not good football last week.
93 Jackson wasn’t bad vs double team in the red zone last week vs power.
45 LB CARTER COUGHLIN (6-4, 225, Soph. Eden Prairie, Minn.)
* Their most active player in their front seven and sometimes their best.
* Plays like Marcus Rush, not quite as fast. He’s quick, slippery. Not as firm at point of attack as Rush was.
* Plays OLB but plays it in the defensive end area. He’s basically a stand-up DE.
* First-year starter.
* He was a four-star, national Top 100 recruit (ranked No. 82), and No. 1 in Minn. Michigan State had a little shot at him for a little while and probably finished second for him, but he committed to Minnesota in March of his junior year.
+ Good inside fake for a sack last week. Dipped shoulder, then countered the outside, quick like a skill position guy on that move. Beat the right tackle on that one. He will play right end or left end. Luke Campbell and Cole Chewins will be fine against him.
DE 87 NATE UMLOR ( 6-5, 269, Fr., Allendale, Mich., true freshman)
* Listed as a starter this week for the first time.
* Is listed as a TE on the roster.
* Ranked No. 27 in MIchigan, 5.5 three-star. He didn’t crack the SpartanMag Top 25.
* Is not very “sudden” as a defensive player.
(46 Winston DeLattiboudere, 6-3, 247, Soph., Baltimore, is the former starter. Seems to have been demoted. Not bad quickness inside but SLOW for a DE in pursuit.)
* Ulmor began Minnesota’s third defensive series last week.
* The difference between Coughlin and Richardson, and the Ulmor/DeLattiboudere combo at d-end is pretty immense and illustrates Minnesota’s depth problems.
DT 19 GARY MOORE (6-4, 287, Jr., Mobile, Ala.)
* Listed as starter this week
* Not bad.
* Pursues with some athleticism.
- Failed to host his gap on an outside zone for 25 yards last week in the 4Q.
+ Decent submarine and bear crawl for TFL inside the 2 yard line vs Maryland in the 1Q.
LINEBACKERS
41 MLB THOMAS BARBER (6-1, 233, Soph., Plymouth, Minn.)
* Was a 5.6 three-star, ranked No. 8 in Minnesota. March commitment with no other offers.
* Looks way too big in the behind to play MLB at this level. You start to assume he is slow but then he gets his rear going and he seems a little quicker than you think he would be.
* Overall, he is somewhat quick in a phone booth, but not pursuit-fast.
+ Nice job of getting of an OG block and pursuing to the outside to assist on a tackle for no gain early in the Purdue game.
+ Heavy hit on a sack last week, Purdue slid the protection the wrong way, he came untouched, and accelerated pretty well.
* Had 10 tackles against Maryland.
21 Slot LB KAMAL MARTIN (6-3, 229, Soph. Burnsville, Minn.)
* First-year starter.
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 7 in Minnesota. Summer commitment over MACs and directionals.
* The most athletic guy in the front seven. Good change of direction as a blitzer, getting a hard hit on Purdue QB last week in 1Q.
++ Turned in excellent INT last week in the end zone. Had the inside WR, watched the QB, came off of his man, flipped his hips well, for a pretty INT intended for the TE vs the MLB.
13 LB JONATHAN CELESTIN (6-1, 232, Sr., Jonesboro, Ga.)
+ Showed good speed in running down loose QB scramble last week, but teammates were unsound in letting QB get out for gain of about 20 late in 1Q.
* Extra gear in coming downhill to meet the QB. Doesn’t show that gear when it’s time to take on a fullback blocker in the hole.
* Wasn’t aggressive in taking on FB lead block early in the Purdue game.
+ Had 15 tackles against Maryland.
LB 36 Blake Cashman (6-2, 230, Jr., Eden Prairie, Minn.)
* Plays on nickel defense, quick feet, plays hard like Chris Frey used to on nickel defense. Not bad in pass rush, good motor in pursuit.
GOPHER PASS DEFENSE
* A lot of off coverage. Off, two-deep zone.
* HORRIBLE BUST: Allowed a 20-yard TD pass to Purdue on the opening drive last week. Safety Ayinde Adekunle passed off the TE to someone behind him, but there was no one behind him. His teammates were playing man, he was playing zone.
Wide open TD (set up by a horrible punt which gave PU the ball at the Minnesota 39-yard line, then a facemask penalty, then a bust. Horrible start for Minnesota. Horrible. That’s why Fleck tried to change the momentum by going for it on their next possession, inside their own 40-yard line, and made it)
16 CB CONEY DURR (5-10, 191, Soph., Baton Rouge, La.)
* Listed as new starter, replacing Kiondre Thomas, who is out with a leg injury suffered against Purdue.
* Durr is still recovering from off-season ACL knee surgery, required due to injury in last year’s Holiday Bowl victory over Washington State.
- Looked quite slow in chasing a WR on a shallow crossing route on third-and-three for a gain of 37 to set up the game-winning TD. Tried to play man to man, can’t quite do it with the repaired knee right now. Minnesota tried to blitz on that play, not a heavy blitzing team, and had too much greenery to cover in the back to make it work.
* Started one game last year.
“Coney's going going to play and Coney's still recovering, but that's the last (healthy cornerback available),” Fleck said. “It is what it is and he's going to step up and he's going to play better, and this isn't his fault, at all. We have to put him in the best position to be successful.
(Justus Harris, true freshman, is listed as Durr’s back-up. He hasn’t yet burned his redshirt.) Fleck side he might move a WR to CB rather than burn a guy’s redshirt.
“There has to be a line I draw on the sand at some point so far into the season that -- is that worth it on the back end?” Fleck said. “I will not sacrifice what you really want down the road because we can't do that enough because what it's going to do is put you back another recruiting class.”
34 CB ANTONIO SHENAULT (5-11, 192, Jr., Roselle, Ill.)
(Rey Estes, a true freshman and converted QB, is listed as the back-up. He has yet to play.)
+ From off coverage, pretty good pass break up on a slant in the third quarter last week, kind of physical with it.
- Allowed a completion a comeback to Maryland on third-and-nine the first quarter. good, well-timed cut for the comeback.
- Maryland picked on him twice in third-down, press, man-to-man situations in the first half - the only two times Minnesota played press/man in the first half. Shenault’s feet weren’t bad on either play, but gave up a completion, and was called for pass interference on the other.
- Beaten for a 28-yard TD pass in off coverage on an out-and-up by Maryland.
- On Maryland’s game-winning drive, on third-and-four at the 45-yard line, Maryland went five wide and attacked 34 again, in the slot, with a short out route to the sticks.
7 S KEN HANDY-HOLLY (6-2, 202, true-Fr., Jackson, Ala.)
* Made his debut with 14 snaps against Maryland. Then was in full-bore last week against Purdue. Sink or swim.
* Didn’t notice any big problems from him.
(S DUKE McGEE has been out for two games due to disciplinary reasons. He might be back this week, Fleck said.)
4 S AYINDE ADEKUNLE (6-0, 210, Sr., Blaine, Minn.)
* Second-year starter.
* Three pass deflections, one INT this year.
* DB Ayinde Adekunle with an INT in first quarter last week. Playing soft slot zone but read QB’s telegraph, stepped in front for INT.
* DB Ayinde Adekunle with an INT in first quarter last week. Playing soft slot zone but read QB’s telegraph, stepped in front for INT.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Shannon Brooks is averaging 19.8 per return.
Rodney Smith had one return for 40 yards.
* The kicker is 7 of 10 on field goals and is 4 of 5 from 40 to 49 yards. Kicked a field goal last week to put Minneost up 17 16 with 2:22 left.
* The punter is averaging 44.4 per attempt. Pretty strong. Six for 50 or more yards. But he screed up a rugby punt on the opening drive last week and gave Purdue first down at the Minn 38. After a personal foul, Purdue soon went up 7-0.
* Kickoffs: 10 touchbacks on 25 attempts. Allowed a 45 yard return in the last two minutes to set up the game-losing drive.
ADD IT ALL UP
The night game, the rain, the weather, does that help Michigan State? Probably not. Rain elements help the less-talented team.
But I think Michigan State matches up well with Minnesota. I like Michigan State’s edge at QB. Michigan State has been on the field with much better opposition. Michigan State has momentum and remains hungry. Michigan State is ripe to get its tailback game going and that could emerge as a significant step in this game, for this team, for this season, if they can get to 5-1 and show growth in important areas of need.
Minnesota has had injuries and is trying to hang on. In the years I’ve been doing this, this -5 line seems like the least-supported line I’ve seen. Maybe I’m wrong. I’ll be very interested to see if Vegas indeed saw angles that I did not. I think Michigan State could play its C game and Minnesota could play it B game and Michigan State would still win by 7 or more. We’ll see.
I haven't finished the video to go with it, and I have to get on the road, so here we go:
PRE-SNAP READ: Michigan State vs Minnesota
By Jim Comparoni
Publisher
SpartanMag.com
MINNEAPOLIS - I don’t think there’s much of a chance of Michigan State getting too full of themselves and overlooking the task at Minnesota.
This is MSU’s first road game, first flight, first business trip together for this edition of the team. They liked practicing and playing together before. Now, after last week, they love it.
They had a good, physical, accountable win at Michigan last week. But there are/were plenty of things to clean up, such as:
* Getting the ground game going, getting the tailbacks heated up.
* Getting the o-line squared away on what happened in losing too many one-on-one battles in the second half last week (maybe five or six occasions, spoiling drives).
* Getting David Dowell, who played well, squared away on a coverage bust or two that Michigan State had in that game (one which QB O’Korn didn’t see on a TE deep route vs cover-three; and one for a TD which was called back due to holding).
It’s great to be a Spartan football player right now. Big win over Michigan, improving, coming together, maturing, 4-1, on the road, need to keep improving, keep chasing excellence.
I think the Spartans will be playing themselves, playing the sport, more so than the Gophers in this game. I expect Michigan State to be eager, and engaged.
These might be two teams trending in opposite directions.
Minnesota was strong early in the year, including impressive wins against Middle Tennessee State and Oregon State (two teams that aren’t all that good, in fact Oregon State is awful).
But still, Minnesota looked pretty good there for awhile.
But they’ve been hit by injury in the defensive backfield and at WR, and have had some issues at o-line that might be subsiding.
But this is a Minnesota team that is having trouble deciding whether to play more true freshmen and try to salvage a season, or keep their seed corn stored for times ahead.
Minnesota looked pretty good at times against a fairly decent Maryland team two weeks ago, but the injuries kept mounting, and the Gophers looked less than good last week in a sloppily-played game between the Gophers and Boilermakers.
I watched the first quarter of that game and rewatched it and felt that Minnesota looked like a team that would lose 35-14 to Michigan State. Minnesota looked a step slow in the middle of the field on defense. And they looked like they featured the type of running attack (the inside zone) that Michigan State is most comfortable defending, and they looked like they had another one of these mediocre QBs that Michigan State has been facing all year.
Then I watched the whole game again, and then the Maryland game.
Minnesota made enough plays against Maryland, and Minnesota’s defensive players - many of whom won’t look like good eye test players at first glance - hung in there long enough to make me think the Gophers could hold it to something like 28-17. But what’s more likely, a TD swing in Minnesota’s direction to make it 21-17 Michigan State as a final score, or a TD swing in MSU’s direction to make it 28-10? I think the latter.
Those of you who have been getting the Pre-Snap Read know that I don’t often predict scores. But this time, I have to call it like I feel it. Minnesota isn’t a bad team, they just look like the type of outfit that will lose the majority of the snaps against a team like Michigan State.
If both teams play their B game, Michigan State wins by 14 to 17.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
Minnesota’s defense has a couple of guys with good quickness. One at outside linebacker (13, Jon Celestin), one at stand-up DE (45, Carter Coughlin).
At too many other positions, Minnesota is a half-step slow. It might not show up, down-in and down-out. But there is too much of a likelihood to spring a play that might go for 7 yards against Michigan that can get out for 40 yards against Minnesota.
Minnesota doesn’t have much of a pass rush. Brian Lewerke, behind an increasingly-trusted offensive line, will have time to operate.
Minnesota has a dinged-up secondary. Maryland attacked CB No. 34 mercilessly. No, a new guy is in the lineup, No. 16, and he’s coming off winter ACL surgery, and not quite ready for prime time. But Minnesota has to go with him.
If 34 and 16 are playing CB, Michigan State should be able to pick on either of them.
Minnesota held Purdue to 132 yards rushing. Maryland broke out for 262 yards rushing, with quick zone read action, not quite the style of MSU’s run game. But Maryland’s quickness hurt Minnesota.
Michigan State has had trouble getting its running backs going this year. This game will give the Spartans a chance to get that ground game rolling. Minnesota isn’t bad on defense, but Michigan State has the type of balanced offense to keep the Gophers’ safeties out of the box, and a diversified running attack into a rhythm.
Minnesota has some decently firm defensive tackles. But you can watch their d-line for quite a while and not see any of them beat anybody. They have some catchers in the front seven.
It’s time for the Michigan State ground game, namely the tailbacks, to start holding up their end of the bargain.
MSU’s offensive front has been weather-proofed mentally and physically in the last two weeks against a pair of good-to-outstanding defensive fronts in Michigan and Iowa.
MSU’s blockers have been continuing their preparation with that type of opposition in mind, holding themselves to a high challenge. But Minnesota won’t be nearly as physical as Iowa, not nearly as quick as Michigan into the gaps, or as quick to close as Michigan.
Michigan State will be more physical than Maryland or Purdue. MSU’s QB and WR combination will be more diversified and dangerous than anything Minnesota has seen.
I add it all up and I can’t figure out what Vegas sees that makes this a 5-point spread.
I don’t talk about the spread much in the Pre-Snap Read series. Usually, I don’t want to know the spread before I write this thing. But I saw on a message board that the spread was around -5 with Michigan State favored.
I think of the injuries that Minnesota has, and I look at the things Michigan State is doing in the trenches, and at QB and WR and in the defensive backfield, and I think this could be a dreadful game for the Gophers.
The threat of rain dampens things a bit, could help keep it a bit closer. Or Michigan State might be more-equipped to operate in it after last week - although Michigan State didn’t set the world on fire offensively in the downpour. But the opposite will be quite easier this time, theoretically.
I assume there is someone in Vegas setting that line who is better at watching film than I am. Or perhaps there’s some algorithm or formula that suggests that Michigan State is going to struggle in this game.
I suspect that they set that line for the public, a public that saw Michigan State get blown out (scoreboard-wise) against Notre Dame. But you and I know that margin was about turnovers, and Michigan State did some decent things in that game at the line of scrimmage.
The same public might have respected MSU’s victory over Michigan, but felt Michigan State’s offense is terrible and barely eked out a victory despite not being able to move the ball in the second half.
Well, you and I know that the weather and circumstances had something to do with that, and MSU’s offensive output in the first half against the nation’s No. 1 defense was pretty good.
And Michigan State’s defense doesn’t get any credit for shutting down another opponent?
The betting public might expect a letdown, but Mark Dantonio is very mindful about MSU’s performances the week after the Michigan game and Michigan State usually plays quite well the next week.
Also, Michigan State often challenges itself to take its game up a level in order to face the Wolverines, and then Michigan State often matches or approaches or exceeds that same level in the following weeks. In other words, Michigan State resets its best level of play for the Michigan game, and then does a good job of maintaining that best level of play in subsequent weeks. That happened in the championship years, and it happened last year even during a terrible season.
I like MSU’s matchups with the Spartan pass rush against questionable Gopher pass protection.
I like MSU’s tight, varied pass defenses against a shaky, inconsistent QB who telegraphs passes and doesn’t have a great stable of WRs to throw to (assuming that Minnesota will stick with former walk-on senior and first-year starter Conor Rhoda).
I like MSU’s excellent run defense to contain (at least) or totally shut down a pretty decent Minnesota running attack.
I like MSU’s WR’s ability to match up against 34 or 16.
I would be very disappointed in Michigan State if the Spartans win by less than a touchdown.
This game is a chance for Michigan State to go on the road for its first business trip, handle that business, and feel even better about itself in seeking a 5-1 start to the first half of the season, and a continued new beginning to the next chapter of the Dantonio era, with new standouts and new leaders forging the path. This week, the path goes through Minneapolis, and Michigan State is the team trending hungrily upward, and the Gophers are the team seeking damage control.
TRENDS & OBSERVATIONS
* Minnesota vs Purdue was not good football. A lot of young players, a lot of tardiness.
* Minnesota is a team hurt by injuries with a first-year head coach torn between burning redshirts or sacrificing the season, torn between reinstating a pair of suspended upper classmen (one at back-up QB and the other at safety) or lengthening the disciplinary lesson.
* PJ Fleck is the first year coach. You know all about him.
Their offense this year isn’t nearly as exciting as he is.
They are a ground-based offense, featuring the inside zone. It’s similar to the things Western Michigan did, but WMU might have done it better, which just as good of running backs as Minnesota’s fine RBs.
WHERE MINNESOTA COULD HURT MSU:
* Not much comes to mind. Their defense occasionally makes plays, but not in a downhill, relentless, problematic type of way. They will sit in a cover-four zone on most plays and Michigan State should be able to sit receivers down into those open areas, or probe with comebacks and curls in the middle, or digs to the middle of the field. There should be some low-hanging fruit for Lewerke.
Minnesota hasn’t been explosive on specials teams.
Their run game was good at Oregon State, but Oregon State’s defense ranks in the bottom 2 percentile of the country.
Michigan State should be equipped to take Minnesota’s run-game strength away from them, or at least contain it.
Minnesota’s QB had a moment or two against Maryland, connected on a couple of 20-yard outs to the wide side of the field that were pretty good.
He didn’t attempt many deep passes against Purdue and Maryland, maybe five or six in all. He connected on one, to the 1-yard line, setting up a game-tying TD in the fourth quarter.
He has thrown some decent deep balls. He’s not terrible at it. But his WRs are almost never running free. They aren’t the type of WRs who can blow the top off a defense.
So where might Minnesota be dangerous? I struggle to find an area. That’s where the idea of Michigan State possibly becoming its own worst enemy is a theory.
What are the chances that Minnesota rights Fleck’s boat and they come back strong to stop the bleeding, overcome their injuries, get their QB straightened out, stop their losing streak and cool off the suddenly-hot Spartans? Not great, in my opinion.
I usually subscribe to the idea that the team that NEEDS to win the most has a natural advantage. Judging by the records, you would think that team is Minnesota. But I think Michigan State is still the team out of these two that NEEDS to win the most.
THE LATEST ON MINNESOTA:
* Minnesota has led every game in the fourth quarter. That’s kind of a good testament to them and the coach because in watching this team it seems to me that PJ Fleck was left with a cupboard that was less than half-stocked. It wasn’t bare. But this is and was more of a rebuilding job than their 9-4 record of a year ago would suggest.
* Last year, they had Matt Leidner at QB. This year, they don’t have much.
* Last year they had crafty 6-3 WR Drew Wolitarsky, who had 66 catches. This year, they’re inconsistent at WR.
* The Gophers will be without four former starters against Michigan State, three of which went down with injuries last week against Purdue.
* A CB, a WR and an offensive tackle were injured against Purdue and won’t play against Michigan State.
* Safety Antoine Winfield will miss a second straight game with a hamstring injury. He was regarded as their best coverage man.
* Fleck often refers to this year as “Year Zero,” an indication that implementing his program is more important than the record this year.
* QB Conor Rhoda has not been good. There’s a chance Minnesota could shake things up with reinstated QB Demry Croft, who was suspended for team reasons in early September. He is much more of a runner than Rhoda. Minnesota began the season with those two as co-starters. Rhoda beat him out after the win at Oregon State.
* Rhoda has struggled recently. Fleck said earlier this week that we (media) could put an “or” next to all four QBs listed on their official depth chart.
I don’t know much about Croft or the freshmen behind him. From what I’ve seen of Rhoda, he’s quite beatable enough, if I’m Michigan State. I wouldn’t mind having that guy in, if I’m Michigan State.
EARLIER GAMES
* Beat pesky U of Buffalo, 17-7, on opening night. Buffalo is 3-3 after losing to Western Michigan in overtime last week.
* Beat Oregon State 48-14 on the road. Oregon State is 1-5, and fired its coach this week. Oregon State’s defense ranks No. 128 out of 130.
(The 49 points were the most by a Gopher team on the road since 1980 at Northwestern).
* Beat Middle Tennessee State, 34-3. (Middle Tennessee State is now 3-3 after losing its best WR and QB).
* Lost to Maryland 31-24 at home two weeks ago.
* Maryland was a double-digit favorite for this game.
* Maryland cut off Minnesota’s main artery by stopping the run, holding the Gophers to 80 yards rushing.
Minnesota turned in some good work in tying Maryland at 24-24 with 3:45 to play. Lost the game on a 32-yard smoke draw with about a minute left. Prior to that Maryland successfully, frequently, picked on No. 34 CB Shenault.
LAST WEEK: Lost to Purdue, 31-17.
Purdue led 17-16 with a couple of minutes left.
Purdue drove and scored to go ahead with less than a minute left, with the big play being a third-down shallow crosser vs gimpy replacement CB 16 Coney Durr.
* Purdue turned it over three times in the first half but came back to win. By the time Purdue battled back and cut the Minnesota lead to 14-13, the Boilermakers had 15 first downs compared to 7 for the Gophers.
The first down totals ended up 22-17 in favor of Purdue.
Purdue out-gained Minnesota 439-328.
Minnesota was up 17-16 with 1:40 to go.
“To have five plays or whatever it was and go right down the field (to take the lead), it's unacceptable and 100% fault is on me,” Fleck said.
Fleck conveys the idea that he is having to play guys that he doesn’t think are good enough.
“ We have to understand that everybody on this football team will play this year and we’ve proven that,” he said. “We prove that in the secondary. We're proving that on the D-line.”
THE TO DO LIST:
* The Michigan State defense might be able to control and possibly dominate this game either way it chooses - by bringing a safety down near the box and over-play the run against a run-centric team that struggles to throw, with run-blitzed mixed in. Just shut them down and dominate. Or Michigan State might be able to stop the run with the standard 7, and get heat on the QB with the standard 4. But where’ the fun in that?
* On offense: Probe the perimeter with “Now” routes to the WR to the field, maybe a wide, two-man jailbreak screen (Purdue popped one off for about 50 yards). MINNESOTA seems a step slow in pursuing from the inside out. Put them in space, make it a race, you could spring a few guys loose.
* On offense, attack No. 16. He is coming back from ACL surgery. Was forced into action in the fourth quarter last week. Didn’t look fast. They are very thin at CB, due to injury. They’re talking about moving a WR or two to that position. 16, Coney Durr (5-10, 191, Soph., Baton Rouge, La.) can be targeted.
* But, if you follow what Maryland did, attack No. 34. They really went at him in the first half, especially on third down vs press, then hit him for a TD on an out-and-up.
THE MUST LIST:
* As usual, don’t turn the ball over. Against good teams, turnovers will result in defeat. Against beatable opponents who are struggling such as Minnesota, turnovers will keep them in the game and give them confidence.
Either way, don’t give it away.
Lewerke has improved in this area.
* Stop the run. That’s a key every week too. But the ramifications of it change from week to week. This week, if you stop the run, Minnesota isn’t likely to consistently be able to do much through the air to hang with you, if Michigan State’s offense has the B-plus level of success that I’m expecting against a game but defective Gophers defense.
GOPHERS’ RUN GAME :
* Minnesota rushed 58 times for 253 yards and five TDs against Oregon State. That figure, plus WMU’s success against USC, really really makes me wonder about ground defense in the Pac-12.
* The Gophers are a heavy inside zone team. Like Western Michigan. Their o-line might not be as good as WMU’s. Their QB is better than WMU’s was. Their RBs are similarly effective, although differ in style from WMU’s.
MSU’s first indication that the Spartans were going to field a strong defense this year came in the opener against WMU. Michigan State has improved since then. There’s a chance Michigan State stifles these guys.
* In addition to the conventional inside zone, Minnesota will mix in a sweep with two o-linemen pulling, usually to the field side.
You’ll see that five or six times, usually with No. 1 (RB Rodney Smith, 5-11, 209, Jr.) carrying the ball. He has good cutback vision, so don’t overpursue on the sweep. Michigan State has to figure out a way to whip back those pulling linemen. They’ve been working it all week. Michigan State will have a plan, and they’ll work it well.
* Minnesota will mix in the fly sweep, with the RB as the fly sweeper. Usually No. 23 (RB Shannon Brooks, 6-0, 213, Jr.) on the fly sweep. Like six or seven times a game. They revisit plays more than most opponents.
If 23 is in motion, fly sweep alert.
And if he carries on the fly sweep, the next play when he goes in motion for the same look he WON’T get the ball for a second straight fly sweep. It’s either a fake fly sweep then inside zone, or a play-action pass. Don’t fear the play -action pass, they aren’t that good at it.
* They mix in some zone read, but it’s not really a read because they don’t want the QB (when it’s Rhoda) to keep the ball.
If the suspended back-up Croft plays, THEN the QB keeper becomes a true option and things change.
Maryland didn’t respect Rhoda on the zone read at all and sent the unblocked optioned defender straight at the RB. They did this well enough that Rhoda HAD to keep it once or twice, just to make that part of the playbook retain its ink.
* If Croft plays at QB, he is much more of a run threat. He had a 68-yard run against Oregon State.
* Fleck suspended Croft in early September. He has been reinstated but Fleck hasn’t said whether he will play.
* Rhoda and Croft shared QB duty at the outset of the season, but Rhoda became the man after the Oregon State game.
Will they play Croft? Well, Fleck does not HAVE to win right now. So he might be more set on sending messages and instilling long-term discipline than compromising himself and playing a guy sooner than he had originally planned. When did he plan to reactivate Croft? He’s not saying.
Same with their situation at safety with previously-suspended Duke McGhee.
GAMBLER, FLECK
* Minnesota went for it on fourth-and-one on their second possession of the game AT THEIR OWN 35-yard line last week, after a terrible start, falling behind 7-0 with some stale errors. They picked it up with a 1-yard run, inside zone, out of pistol. LT 73 did a decent job with a down block.
MINNESOTA OFFENSE
* Minnesota is suffering from not having much of a pass threat. And their QB is not much of a run threat.
“We got to be able to create separation on the outside,” he said.
“For us to run the ball better, guys on the outside have to make better plays,” Fleck said. “We don’t have the fifth-year senior who’s caught 120 balls and you can say, ‘I’m going to rely on that bell cow.’
“We’re going to do what our offensive linemen can do,” he added.
Their o-line is solid, not all that good. Not as good as Iowa’s or Michigan’s.
Maryland held Minnesota to 80 yards rushing (2.6 per carry). Maryland usually went with a single safety deep, stopped the run with an extra man in the box, and didn’t feel Minnesota’ QB/WR combination could beat press coverage and take advantage of all the green space created by removing a safety from pass defense.
INSIDE MINNESOTA’S PERSONNEL:
Running backs first, they are Minnesota’s most accomplished players:
RUNNING BACKS
1 RB RODNEY SMITH (5-11, 209, Jr., Jonesboro, Ga.)
* 21 carries, 81 yards last week against Purdue, including a 51-yarder.
* Had 18 carries for 35 yards against Maryland.
* Averaging 79 yards rushing per game and 3.7 per carry.
* 2,226 career yards.
* Was a 5.4 two-star. Took official visits to Minn, and East Carolina. Also had offers from App State, Jacksonville State, and southern directionals. Committed a week before signing day.
* Rushed for 1,158 yards last year and 16 TDs (third most in school history).
* 23 catches last year.
* Can jump and skip around with pretty good vision.
* They like the counter sweep with him.
* Good cut-back, jump-cut guy. Back side linebacker MUST pursue to SMith’s back hip. Don’t go too fast, too far after him as the back-side pursuit guy, or he will cut behind you.
As Lou Tepper used to teach, 80 pct of long RB runs happen when they CUT BEHIND THE BACK SIDE LINEBACKER. He said to look it up. I’ve noticed it ever since. And that’s what happened on his 50-yarder last week. Power sweep left, cutback right behind the back side LB.
Whether it’s A Dowell, or C Frey (or Ty Thompson or Ant Simmons), when No. 1 is carrying the ball, pursue his back hip. Don’t over-pursue, rely on your teammates.
ALERT: They sent him deep on a wheel once last week too.
23 RB SHANNON BROOKS (6-0, 213, Jr., Atlanta)
* 18 carries, 116 yards last week against Purdue, including a 40-yarder.
* 12 carries for 39 yards against Maryland.
* Averaging 78 yards per game and 4.8 per rush.
+ Converted a fourth-and-one on an inside zone last week in the first quarter.
* Rushed for 650 yards last year.
* Decent power as short-yardage guy. Picked up fourth-and-one on inside zone pistol last week.
* Quick feet, not extra-gear fast. But quick pedals.
* Looks shorter than 6-feet.
* Had a 40-yard run last week on an inside (split) zone, with wham action by 6-10 TE. Purdue was not gap sound. Brooks not fast enough to take it to the house.
* Had a 16-yarder on a fly sweep. They’ll put him at WR and fly sweep him. Alert that.
QUARTERBACK
QB CONOR RHODA (6-3, 225, Sr., Eagen, Minn.)
* Completing 55 pct of his passes with 5 TDs and 4 INTs.
* Averaging 157 yards passing per game.
* Was a no-star walk-on QB, had an offer from North Dakota State.
* Played in only three games last year. Was 8 of 16 last year with 1 TD.
* Did not play as a sophomore in 2015. Played in two games in 2014.
He’s truly a Joe off the pickle boat.
But Fleck didn’t have much talent at QB and talked him into coming back for one last year.
Conor Rhoda battled for the job during camp with Demry Croft during the spring, fall camp and into September. They began the season in a two-QB system.
Rhoda gained the upper hand during a convincing win over Oregon State. Then Croft was suspended on Sept. 12 for disciplinary reasons and is expected to be back now. Fleck wouldn’t say whether Croft would play vs Michigan State.
Rhoda completed 11 of 25 passes for 101 yards and two touchdowns in the 31-17 loss at Purdue. He also lost a fumble at the Boilermakers 7-yard-line and threw a fourth-down interception from the Purdue 27 that was returned 76 yards for a touchdown with 10 seconds left in the game.
“With Conor, he keeps making these killer turnovers in the red zone at crucial points,” Fleck said after last Saturday’s game.
During Monday’s weekly presser, Fleck was asked about Rhoda losing his QB job.
“If there was a better answer today, I would have somebody else in there. That’s not the better answer,’’ Fleck said. “He’s the better answer for our football team.”
Not a ringing endorsement.
“He’s proven that he can run this offense very efficiently,” Fleck said. “But he’s also made mistakes. What I want to be able to say is, ‘Watch him grow from those mistakes.’ ’’
Rhoda completed 11 of 25 passes for 101 yards and two touchdowns in the 31-17 loss to Purdue. He also lost a fumble at the Boilermakers’ 7-yard-line and threw a fourth-down interception from the Purdue 27 that was returned 76 yards for a touchdown with 10 seconds left in the fourth quarter.
**
Overall, I thought Rhoda was not good against Purdue, the type of QB that Michigan State might really shut down.
Then I watched the Maryland game and saw Rhoda complete a few more quality passes than I thought he might be capable of.
Against Maryland, he was 13 of 26 for 229 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs.
Plusses and minuses in the last two games:
+ Last week, connected with WR Rashad Still for about 30 yards to move the ball to the Purdue 30-yard line in the final minute.
Purdue kind of had a cover-three bust on that play. CB stopped playing the WR and tried to come back for the ball. Then the ball went over his head. Not good football played on this day. You’ll hear me say that a lot.
- Telegraphed a slant against a zone blitz, had it picked off and returned for a TD in the final seconds last week, making it 31-17.
+ Connected with Phillip Howard (WR, 25) on a shallow crossing for a gain of 25 in the 2Q vs Maryland. One of the few times Rhoda threw it over the middle comfortably and on-time last week, although it was caught only 5 yards downfield.
- Intercepted in the red zone vs Maryland in the second quarter, a little slow with the delivery, telegraphed a dig but the WR Tyler Johnson still should have caught it, went through his hands, tip drill INT.
= He will attempt the 17-yard out to the wide side, like once a game, but seems to leave it in the air too long, not quite enough zip. Not bad accuracy, but can he drive that thing into the small, quick windows of Michigan State?
+ Decent pass to Tyler Johnson while on the run after being flushed with 10 minutes to go vs Maryland, but Johnson failed to catch a semi-diving catch, on the move, shallow crossing route. Not a bad ball, Johnson is a decent WR, but kind of ran out of talent on that play.
+ Nice pass 26 yards to 6 WR Tyler Johnson on a post corner, to the field side. Decent ball.
+ Deep post to WR Eric Carter (5-11, 193, Sr., Lakeland, Fla.) to the goal line for about 45 yards.
- INT in the final minute vs Maryland, down by 7 point, telegraphing a dig route.
* Minnesota likes the TEs inside the 12 yard line, and on third down.
= Threw it downfield for a chunk attempt only once in the first half last week, and that was near the end of the first half. From left hash, accurate deep ball, but left it in the air a little too long against pretty good coverage, knocked away INC. Intended for TE Lingen. Not the best deep threat you’re going to find, but a guy Rhoda trusts.
* ALERT: Rhoda stares down receivers and is sometimes late in delivering, which sometimes leaves his guys out to dry for big hits. This will easily be the fastest, smartest most well-positioned defense he has faced. I am afraid for Minnesota that some of their receivers (WRs, TEs, RBs) could get hung out to dry for some big hits.
* He kind of hung WR Phillip Howard out to dry on the second play last week. Howard got hit hard, knocked out of the game and out for this week.
QB 11 DEMRY CROFT (6-5, 205, Soph. Rockford, Ill.)
* Played in two games prior to getting suspended.
* 7 of 12 passing on the year for 63 yards with 0 TDs and O INTs.
* Had a 64-yard TD run against Oregon State.
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 18 in Illinois and the No. 28 dual threat QB in the nation.
13 QB TANNER MORGAN (6-2, 205, Fr., Union, Ky.)
* A Fleck recruit they are trying to redshirt. I assume he won’t play. But who the hell knows. He is listed No. 3.
17 QB SETH GREEN (6-4, 229, R-Fr., Woodbury, Minn.)
* Has been the back-up while Croft was suspended. Green, of Minneapolis, was recruited by Michigan State and has known Michigan State ’s QB coach Brad Salem since he was a kid. I assume he won’t play, but who the hell knows. He is listed No. 4.
WIDE RECEIVERS, in order of importance:
* Minnesota is lacking proven performers, and have been hurt by injury. Fleck says they aren’t getting separation. Defenses don’t respect them, or the QB’s ability to deliver, and can load up to stop the run. That’s what Maryland did.
(Demetrious Douglas was the team’s leading receiver when he was lost for the season in game three.)
(One of their support WRs, Phillip Howard, isn’t expected to play. Head injury last week. But Fleck put him on the two-deep, Tuesday, one day after saying he was out).
WR PERSONNEL
6 WR TYLER JOHNSON (6-2, 190, Soph., Minneapolis)
* Leading receiver with 17 catches and 3 TDs.
* Kind of a Cam Chambers type, even though we haven’t seen a lot of Cam Chambers yet.
* Has some muscle to him, maybe not a burner threat. Their best WR at this point. They don’t have a lot of field-stretchers.
How He Matches Up With Michigan State:
* Either Michigan State CB should be able to cover him on the vast majority of plays. Put him in the slot and Khari Willis shouldn’t be afraid of him.
* Michigan State didn’t play back-up CBs Josh Butler and Tyson Smith nearly as much last week. Michigan State coaches say they expect to get back to working them in. Butler and Smith might not be as good as Justin Layne and Josiah Scott at locking up a guy like Johnson, but they shouldn’t be afraid of him. They can cover him.
* Michigan State will be able to mix its base with man-to-man, like they’ve done all year.
* Johnson was a 5.7 three-star recruit, ranked No. 3 in Minnesota and the no. 36 athlete by Rivals.com.
* Had more than 100 yards receiving in consecutive games, vs Oregon State and Middle Tennessee State.
* Averaging 73 yards receiving per game. Had a 67-yarder against Oregon State.
* Averaging 21.5 yards per catch, far and away better than anyone on the team.
* Last week: 2 catches for 15 yards against Purdue.
* Vs Maryland: 3 catches, 69 yards.
- Had a pass go through his hands for an INT at Maryland.
= Play action post drew pass interference vs Maryland, after Maryland had been creeping in to overplay the run. Decent inside release move by Johnson on that one.
+ Decent dig route of play action in the third quarter vs Md, but QB locked in on him all the way. QB called an audible to that play after Maryland showed single safety high, loaded box.
+ Good catch vs press, going high to nab a back shoulder fade in the third quarter vs Maryland.
+ Nice catch for 26 yards on a post corner, to the field side. Decent ball.
* Had 14 catches last year.
(25 WR PHILLIP HOWARD ? 5-11, 187, Fr., Minneapolis)
* Went down with a head injury against Purdue. But had only 6 catches on the year at that point.)
* But he as targeted early in the Purdue game, so the Gophers were hopeful he could be a guy.
* Is listed as a starter this week, a day after Fleck said on Monday that he would not be available to play against Michigan State.
8 WR MARK WILLIAMS (6-0, 195, Gainestown, Ala.)
* Will likely start in place of Phillip Howard.
* Was slowed by a foot injury during training camp.
9 WR ERIC CARTER (5-11, 193, Sr., Lakeland, Fla.)
+ Deep post to WR Eric Carter (5-11, 193, Sr., Lakeland, Fla.) to the goal line for about 45 yards.
86 TE BRANDON LINGON (6-5, 254, Sr., Wayzata, Minn).
* Third on the team with 9 catches, averaging 9.3 per catch, 2 TDs
* Was a 5.5 three-star recruit, No. 5 in Minnesota. Had offers from Air Force and Florida Atlantic.
* GOOD in the red zone. TD catch vs Maryland, stopped and faked an out cut, then kept heading down field. Good double move for a short TD catch to tie the game at 17 17 in the third quarter. Tricky target inside the 15-yard line.
+ TD catch last week in 2q, left wide open for a 1-yard TD off of play action. Rare occasion in which QB was under center. ALERT: when QB is under center, it might be play-action, especially if it’s second and goal.
* Slow. Caught a short 5-yard pass on third-and-six last week, as the free release guy. Slow off the line, turned and caught it.
* Had 33 catches last year, including 3 TDs.
TE NATE WOZNIAK (Greenwood, Ind.) is the 6-foot-10, 280 guy you may remember, through the years.
Has five catches on the year. Good blocker on the split zone, with wham blocks. Has grown into his frame pretty well.
He turned a short out route of a play action half roll into about a 30 yard gain against Maryland.
OFFENSIVE LINE
* Two redshirt freshmen start on the o-line, and true freshman Blaise Andries is listed as the back-up at both offensive tackle positions. Andries has yet to play, as they are trying to protect his redshirt.
* The right side of the line appeared to get stronger, and more movement, on zone plays late in the Maryland game.
THE MATCHUPS
* Minnesota does not look good at left tackle. I think Brandon Randle is poised to hit the stat sheet with a sack or two, and some pressure.
* 76 at RG not the most comfortable in pass pro. I think Raequan Williams could get on the sack board this week.
LT 73 DONNELL GREENE (6-7, 314, Jr., Marietta, Ga.)
* Second-year starter. Former juco transfer.
* Questionable mobility. Questionable pass pro.
* Occasionally good as a down blocker, but limited overall.
+ Good down block on fourth-and-one last week, getting more than a yard of movement on a Purdue DT.
+ Decent down block as part of a double team to spring 23 Brooks for a gain of 10 in the second quarter at Maryland on a day when other run plays were pretty dry for the Gophers.
LG 78 GARRISON WRIGHT (6-4, 319, Sr., Beattie, Kan.)
* Got out as a pull guard on a sweep in the 1Q last week, wasn’t natural. Went for a cut block, got it done, not pretty.
- Trouble passing off a stunt, allowed a flush pressure in 2q.
C 62 JARED WEYLER, 6-4, 296, Jr., Dayton, Ohio
* He missed the last two games. I haven’t scouted him. No opinion, but people seem happy that he will be back. Went down with an apparent leg injury earlier this year.
* Is a first-year starter.
C/G 64 CONNER OLSON (6-5, 297, R-Fr., Monticello, Minn)
* Is expected to return to RG after being a replacement starter at center for a couple of weeks. Not bad.
* Was a 5.5 three-star, No. 13 in Minnesota. Spring commitments over Ivy Leagues.
* Became starting center after Jared Weyler went down in the Oregon State game with a leg injury. Weyler is not expected to play.
- Was tossed aside once for a TFL in the red zone last week.
* Snap and pull on a sweep, not bad.
RG 76 VINCENT CALHOUN (6-4, 320, Sr., Roswell, Ga.)
- Failed to close off a blitzing LB, allowed a TFL in the third quarter last week. Seems a little unsure for a senior.
RT 70 SAM SCHLUETER (6-6, 298, R-Fr., Victoria, Minn.)
* Came off the bench for the first extended playing time of his career last week against Purdue, playing LT. I didn’t see enough from him to have an opinion.
* Took over for Nick Connelly, who was lost to a leg injury against Purdue.
* Schlueter was a 5.6 three-star, ranked No. 10 in Minnesota. Was a spring commitment, had an offer from Michigan State, ISU, Northwestern, Wisconsin.
DEFENSE
* Minnesota plays three down linemen and one stand-up defensive end.
* They tend to favor off zone coverage with two deep safeties, usually a quarters zone.
* Like a lot of teams, Minnesota seems to want to play tight man-to-man on third down. I’m not sure they have the coverage skill or experience to do this, plus it leaves things inviting for a running QB like Lewerke to tuck and run. I would expect MSU’s third-down PCT to be better than it’s been in recent weeks.
* Going to man-to-man on third down in the last two minutes caused Minnesota to give up a big pass play on a shallow crossing route vs. 16, the gimpy CB replacement. That wasn’t a good defensive call, and Fleck kind of acknowledged that after the game.
* When plays break into a little bit of daylight, Minnesota has too many guys who are a step slow to get going. Those add up over the course of a game. If Michigan State gets into a rhythm, you might see more than a handful of plays break out and a game of chase ensue.
* Minnesota has two true freshman starters on defense. Their second string defensive backfield includes two true freshmen who have yet to burn their redshirts.
DEFENSIVE LINE
* Some of their d-linemen are reasonably firm, but you can watch this group for a long time and rarely see any of them beat anyone.
DT 96 STEVEN RICHARDSON (6-0, 292, Sr., Chicago).
* Four-year starter.
* Third-team All-Big Ten last year. 11 TFLs last year.
* HM All-Big Ten as a sophomore.
* Was a 5.5 three-star from Mt. Carmel. No. 37 in Illinois. Was a spring commitment, over MAC schools.
* Squatty body. Not ideal frame, but gets things done.
* Can turn his hips quickly and knife into a gap. Slippery hips, like a shorter Jerel Worthy.
* Decent pass rush, turning the corner on a stunt to hit QB for INC in 3q last week.
“He is playing at a high level,” Fleck said. “He is seeing two people on every single play, and he’s still productive in QB hurries. He is playing the system as well as you can play it. It’s nice to have that anchor in the middle, knowing he is going to win his individual battles every single play.”
My Take: He’s pretty good, he’s not dominant. Michigan State has had some consistency problems with Tyler Higby and Kevin Jarvis at the guard positions.
No. 96 will give them a good test as they try to continue their development.
(They bring in 99 ANDREW STELTER, 6-4, 298, Sr., and 93 Merrick Jackson, 6-2, 316, Sr., as second-string DTs.
(They are functional Devyn Salmon types.
(You may remember Merrick Jackson getting a lot of tough love from Fleck in the preseason Being PJ Fleck show on ESPN, whatever it was called. Salmon type. Stelter SLOW in pursuit.)
Stelter (99) got off for a coverage sack and fumble recovery last week. Looked like the WRs for Purdue were run blocking. QB dropped back and wanted to pass it to someone, then panicked and fumbled. Not good football last week.
93 Jackson wasn’t bad vs double team in the red zone last week vs power.
45 LB CARTER COUGHLIN (6-4, 225, Soph. Eden Prairie, Minn.)
* Their most active player in their front seven and sometimes their best.
* Plays like Marcus Rush, not quite as fast. He’s quick, slippery. Not as firm at point of attack as Rush was.
* Plays OLB but plays it in the defensive end area. He’s basically a stand-up DE.
* First-year starter.
* He was a four-star, national Top 100 recruit (ranked No. 82), and No. 1 in Minn. Michigan State had a little shot at him for a little while and probably finished second for him, but he committed to Minnesota in March of his junior year.
+ Good inside fake for a sack last week. Dipped shoulder, then countered the outside, quick like a skill position guy on that move. Beat the right tackle on that one. He will play right end or left end. Luke Campbell and Cole Chewins will be fine against him.
DE 87 NATE UMLOR ( 6-5, 269, Fr., Allendale, Mich., true freshman)
* Listed as a starter this week for the first time.
* Is listed as a TE on the roster.
* Ranked No. 27 in MIchigan, 5.5 three-star. He didn’t crack the SpartanMag Top 25.
* Is not very “sudden” as a defensive player.
(46 Winston DeLattiboudere, 6-3, 247, Soph., Baltimore, is the former starter. Seems to have been demoted. Not bad quickness inside but SLOW for a DE in pursuit.)
* Ulmor began Minnesota’s third defensive series last week.
* The difference between Coughlin and Richardson, and the Ulmor/DeLattiboudere combo at d-end is pretty immense and illustrates Minnesota’s depth problems.
DT 19 GARY MOORE (6-4, 287, Jr., Mobile, Ala.)
* Listed as starter this week
* Not bad.
* Pursues with some athleticism.
- Failed to host his gap on an outside zone for 25 yards last week in the 4Q.
+ Decent submarine and bear crawl for TFL inside the 2 yard line vs Maryland in the 1Q.
LINEBACKERS
41 MLB THOMAS BARBER (6-1, 233, Soph., Plymouth, Minn.)
* Was a 5.6 three-star, ranked No. 8 in Minnesota. March commitment with no other offers.
* Looks way too big in the behind to play MLB at this level. You start to assume he is slow but then he gets his rear going and he seems a little quicker than you think he would be.
* Overall, he is somewhat quick in a phone booth, but not pursuit-fast.
+ Nice job of getting of an OG block and pursuing to the outside to assist on a tackle for no gain early in the Purdue game.
+ Heavy hit on a sack last week, Purdue slid the protection the wrong way, he came untouched, and accelerated pretty well.
* Had 10 tackles against Maryland.
21 Slot LB KAMAL MARTIN (6-3, 229, Soph. Burnsville, Minn.)
* First-year starter.
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 7 in Minnesota. Summer commitment over MACs and directionals.
* The most athletic guy in the front seven. Good change of direction as a blitzer, getting a hard hit on Purdue QB last week in 1Q.
++ Turned in excellent INT last week in the end zone. Had the inside WR, watched the QB, came off of his man, flipped his hips well, for a pretty INT intended for the TE vs the MLB.
13 LB JONATHAN CELESTIN (6-1, 232, Sr., Jonesboro, Ga.)
+ Showed good speed in running down loose QB scramble last week, but teammates were unsound in letting QB get out for gain of about 20 late in 1Q.
* Extra gear in coming downhill to meet the QB. Doesn’t show that gear when it’s time to take on a fullback blocker in the hole.
* Wasn’t aggressive in taking on FB lead block early in the Purdue game.
+ Had 15 tackles against Maryland.
LB 36 Blake Cashman (6-2, 230, Jr., Eden Prairie, Minn.)
* Plays on nickel defense, quick feet, plays hard like Chris Frey used to on nickel defense. Not bad in pass rush, good motor in pursuit.
GOPHER PASS DEFENSE
* A lot of off coverage. Off, two-deep zone.
* HORRIBLE BUST: Allowed a 20-yard TD pass to Purdue on the opening drive last week. Safety Ayinde Adekunle passed off the TE to someone behind him, but there was no one behind him. His teammates were playing man, he was playing zone.
Wide open TD (set up by a horrible punt which gave PU the ball at the Minnesota 39-yard line, then a facemask penalty, then a bust. Horrible start for Minnesota. Horrible. That’s why Fleck tried to change the momentum by going for it on their next possession, inside their own 40-yard line, and made it)
16 CB CONEY DURR (5-10, 191, Soph., Baton Rouge, La.)
* Listed as new starter, replacing Kiondre Thomas, who is out with a leg injury suffered against Purdue.
* Durr is still recovering from off-season ACL knee surgery, required due to injury in last year’s Holiday Bowl victory over Washington State.
- Looked quite slow in chasing a WR on a shallow crossing route on third-and-three for a gain of 37 to set up the game-winning TD. Tried to play man to man, can’t quite do it with the repaired knee right now. Minnesota tried to blitz on that play, not a heavy blitzing team, and had too much greenery to cover in the back to make it work.
* Started one game last year.
“Coney's going going to play and Coney's still recovering, but that's the last (healthy cornerback available),” Fleck said. “It is what it is and he's going to step up and he's going to play better, and this isn't his fault, at all. We have to put him in the best position to be successful.
(Justus Harris, true freshman, is listed as Durr’s back-up. He hasn’t yet burned his redshirt.) Fleck side he might move a WR to CB rather than burn a guy’s redshirt.
“There has to be a line I draw on the sand at some point so far into the season that -- is that worth it on the back end?” Fleck said. “I will not sacrifice what you really want down the road because we can't do that enough because what it's going to do is put you back another recruiting class.”
34 CB ANTONIO SHENAULT (5-11, 192, Jr., Roselle, Ill.)
(Rey Estes, a true freshman and converted QB, is listed as the back-up. He has yet to play.)
+ From off coverage, pretty good pass break up on a slant in the third quarter last week, kind of physical with it.
- Allowed a completion a comeback to Maryland on third-and-nine the first quarter. good, well-timed cut for the comeback.
- Maryland picked on him twice in third-down, press, man-to-man situations in the first half - the only two times Minnesota played press/man in the first half. Shenault’s feet weren’t bad on either play, but gave up a completion, and was called for pass interference on the other.
- Beaten for a 28-yard TD pass in off coverage on an out-and-up by Maryland.
- On Maryland’s game-winning drive, on third-and-four at the 45-yard line, Maryland went five wide and attacked 34 again, in the slot, with a short out route to the sticks.
7 S KEN HANDY-HOLLY (6-2, 202, true-Fr., Jackson, Ala.)
* Made his debut with 14 snaps against Maryland. Then was in full-bore last week against Purdue. Sink or swim.
* Didn’t notice any big problems from him.
(S DUKE McGEE has been out for two games due to disciplinary reasons. He might be back this week, Fleck said.)
4 S AYINDE ADEKUNLE (6-0, 210, Sr., Blaine, Minn.)
* Second-year starter.
* Three pass deflections, one INT this year.
* DB Ayinde Adekunle with an INT in first quarter last week. Playing soft slot zone but read QB’s telegraph, stepped in front for INT.
* DB Ayinde Adekunle with an INT in first quarter last week. Playing soft slot zone but read QB’s telegraph, stepped in front for INT.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Shannon Brooks is averaging 19.8 per return.
Rodney Smith had one return for 40 yards.
* The kicker is 7 of 10 on field goals and is 4 of 5 from 40 to 49 yards. Kicked a field goal last week to put Minneost up 17 16 with 2:22 left.
* The punter is averaging 44.4 per attempt. Pretty strong. Six for 50 or more yards. But he screed up a rugby punt on the opening drive last week and gave Purdue first down at the Minn 38. After a personal foul, Purdue soon went up 7-0.
* Kickoffs: 10 touchbacks on 25 attempts. Allowed a 45 yard return in the last two minutes to set up the game-losing drive.
ADD IT ALL UP
The night game, the rain, the weather, does that help Michigan State? Probably not. Rain elements help the less-talented team.
But I think Michigan State matches up well with Minnesota. I like Michigan State’s edge at QB. Michigan State has been on the field with much better opposition. Michigan State has momentum and remains hungry. Michigan State is ripe to get its tailback game going and that could emerge as a significant step in this game, for this team, for this season, if they can get to 5-1 and show growth in important areas of need.
Minnesota has had injuries and is trying to hang on. In the years I’ve been doing this, this -5 line seems like the least-supported line I’ve seen. Maybe I’m wrong. I’ll be very interested to see if Vegas indeed saw angles that I did not. I think Michigan State could play its C game and Minnesota could play it B game and Michigan State would still win by 7 or more. We’ll see.
