This is not the usual Pre-Snap Read style, but it's what I threw together during my travels today to Evanston:
East Lansing, Mich. - I was in a traffic back-up on Grand River Avenue yesterday. First time time in 18 months. It felt good.
Tuesday, when I drove to campus for the press conference, I saw a group of three students standing and pointing and looking around in wonderment. Each of them held a piece of paper. It’s still easy to spot a lost freshmen. And some of them still use paper maps of the campus.
I was at El Azteco a couple of nights ago. It was brimming with college students, and very few males for some reason. Temperatures were warm. Lots of smiles. It felt like we were near a college campus again.
There was a deejay spinning music in the cemented courtyard area below. I couldn’t see them down there, from where I was sitting. But he drew a crowd. I heard someone yell “Go Green!” A bunch of people upstairs in the restaurant heard the voice and answered back, “Go White!”
It’s good to be home.
I never left.
But the atmosphere did.
Now it’s back.
Even for a road game.
Let’s kick it off:
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First things first: The quarterback, the coach, and final analysis first.
THE QUARTERBACK
Twenty-four hours before kickoff, I don’t know who is going to get the start at QB for Michigan State. I don’t think we will know until pregame practice at Ryan Field prior to Friday night’s Michigan State game at Northwestern at 9:15 p.m.
Payton Thorne came out of the spring as the No. 1 QB. He held that post for most of August camp. Anthony Russo closed the gap during the second half of August camp. Whether or not Russo surpassed Thorne, I do not know.
As for leaks and word from insiders, I can say that I’ve heard from two accurate insiders this week. One said Thorne. The next day, the other said Russo. So there might even be some disinformation thrown around out there.
I think either QB is capable of playing winning football. I felt like Thorne was steadily improving, from 2019, through last November and into the spring. Whether or not that improvement has plateaued momentarily, I do not know.
Russo has needed to become a better quarterback, a cleaner decision-maker, in order to push Thorne in this competition. If and when he gets his chance, it will be interesting to see if he shows improvement over his Temple days. I suspect he would/will.
2. The Coach: Mel Tucker is beginning his second season at Michigan State. Last year was a spoiled specimen. He doesn’t make excuses, so he’s not calling last year a mulligan. But it was a mulligan, in most ways - even in light of Tucker’s eyebrow-raising ability to get the team up physically and mentally for upset victories over Michigan and then-No. 8 Northwestern.
I can see and sense real progress around the team and program on a macro level. Tucker has something. He’s an energetic, engaging personality, bolstered by terrific x’s and o’s knowledge and respect. And he’ll be strong in the recruiting living rooms when he finally gets a chance to go there in an Michigan State shirt this fall and winter.
The next thing we need to see is whether his teams can consistently play the type of physical, mistake-free football that is necessary to harness a level of consistency in this conference. (Mistake-free might be too strong of a phrase. It might be impossible to play completely mistake-free, but you know what I mean).
I’ve been impressed with Tucker’s ability to organize a program, organize a staff, organize a practice and preside over it with urgency, diligence and discipline.
I suspect that these principles will carry over to the field on gamedays, and eventually we will see a clean, sharp brand of football. But I don’t know for sure. That’s the main thing that needs to be delivered because from my seat, he is on his way toward delivering everywhere else.
If we don’t see Michigan State play a clean, sharp, physical brand of football on Friday against Northwestern, that doesn’t mean it’s never going to be harnessed. But if we do see it on Friday, win or lose, and we begin seeing it on a week-in, week-out basis, like we did in the early years of the Dantonio era, that’s when we’ll know that something strong is being established.
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I want to reiterate something that Paul Konyndyk and I talked about during the V-Cast earlier this week. We have been reporting a lot of the positive comments and quotes from preseason camp, including some of our observations, dating back to things we’ve seen and heard on the recruiting trail.
Michigan State has indeed improved the talent level of the roster.
But if Michigan State fails to win six games this year, that means there will be at least seven unhappy Saturdays. If that happens, I’m hoping that readers don’t feel that we have tried to convince them that the team is or was going to be an outstanding one. I’m hesitant to predict anything better than a 6-6 season, mainly because there are so many unproven - but talented - commodities.
We have relayed a lot of positive news from August camp. I don’t want that to be construed as being more than it is. When Michigan State loses some games, I hope I don’t read posts from disgruntled Maggers claiming they were hoodwinked and sold a bill of good. Hopefully we have communicated our reports and observations in an even-handed fashion.
******
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
Pre-game analysis of a college football season opener is always full of guesswork.
We haven’t seen either of these teams play. We haven’t seen either program field a team in nine or 10 months. But somehow Vegas has come up with a line favoring Northwestern by four or five points. They have to set it somewhere.
Here’s the deal: These seem like two evenly-matched teams. An evenly-matched game in the Big Ten, this early in the year, is most likely going to be decided by mistakes. You saw it in the Nebraska-Illinois game. That game was decided purely by Nebraska mistakes.
As for Michigan State vs Northwestern, last year’s game was decided by mistakes. Surprisingly, Northwestern was the team that committed the majority of them.
Northwestern has enjoyed some divisional championship seasons under Pat Fitzgerald. When they have risen to that level, they’ve done it with smart, physical, opportunistic football and limited mistakes. They had that formula last year in every game other than their loss at Michigan State.
This week’s game will be decided by mistakes. Mel Tucker has a shorter track record as a head coach. He’s had a pair of sub-.500 seasons in rebuilding mode. He may prove to be a great stickler for tight screws and perfected details. But for now, Fitzgerald is the coach with the cleaner track record in that area, despite the fact that Fitzgerald failed to deliver in that category in last year’s matchup against Tucker and the Spartans.
So go ahead and plug in the usual clichés for this game. The’re all applicable. The team that can stop the run, establish the run, prevent big plays and avoid mistakes will win. It’s not rocket science.
“It’s not like we are looking to spring anything on anyone,” Tucker said. “We are not going out there to build a rocket. We’re going out there to play ball. We’ll see who lines up out there when we line up and we’re going to play. But we’re not trying to fool anyone. It’s not going to be that type of game. It’s a Big Ten game. It’s going to be about execution and playing hard for 60 minutes.”
So which team is better-equipped to play hard for 60 minutes?
Michigan State stunned everyone last year by rushing for 207 yards against Northwestern. Michigan State had ranked outside of the Top 110 teams in the nation in rushing offense prior to that game. And then they went out and chugged forward for consistent tailback gains of 5 yards, 4 yards, 6 yards, 3 yards. Connor Heyward did most of the work, which was another surprise.
The offensive line, which was spotty and inconsistent for most of the years, got a little bit of movement on a consistent basis with its double team blocks. That was enough of a dent to set up the rest of the outfit, which was sparked initially by a 75-yard TD pass from Rocky Lombardi to Jalen Nailor. The player Nailor beat for that TD was be nched in the second half and has since transferred to Temple.
The o-line which delivered those blocks last year is back pretty much intact - a year older, stronger, with a new left tackle and what is expected to be better cohesion.
The Northwestern defensive line has new starters at defensive tackle. They have proven starters at d-end, including one (Samdup Miller) who opted out of last year. Northwestern lost a defensive end to the NFL Draft (Earnest Brown) and two key, multi-year starters at inside linebacker, including Paddy Fisher.
So the Northwestern defensive front seven is being restocked.
And Northwestern is doing it with a new defensive coordinator, Jim O’Neil, who has coordinating experience in the NFL and was a grad assistant at Northwestern for Randy Walker back when Fitzgerald was a position coach for the Wildcats.
Michigan State will be attacking that defensive front with a new backfield. Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker III has impressed. Elijah Collins is rejuvenated.
Connor Heyward is playing to good reviews as an H-back. He has good hands. I’ve been impressed in the thud practicing that I’ve seen, and some brief glimpses of scrimmages, of how hard Heyward is trying to establish himself as a blocker.
Many of the names have changed, but the principles remain the same.
Can Michigan State run the ball against Northwestern … for a second straight year?
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Last season, Michigan State benefitted from the age old football adage of WHEN the game was played. As in, it’s not always important who you play, but WHEN you play that opponent.
Michigan State caught Northwestern a week after the Wildcats beat Wisconsin, 17-7, in a wonderfully physical tilt. The collisions in that game were hammer vs anvil. After Northwestern outlasted the Badgers, I suspect the Wildcats came away from that game with a few bruises and too much back-slapping. They were NOT the same team a week later when Michigan State jumped out to a 17-0 lead.
Northwestern inched back to a 20-17 lead in the fourth quarter. But then the first time Northwestern had an offensive snap with the lead, the Wildcats fumbled an end-around handoff. Michigan State recovered, gained a first down, and Matt Coghlin nailed 44-yard field goal to tie the game with 10:11 to play.
Then, Michigan State ended Northwestern’s next possession when Shakur Brown knocked WR Berkeley Holman cold while diving in front of him for an interception.
Michigan State gained one first down after Brown’s interception - on a Lombardi diving scramble on third-and-eight - to put Coghlin in range for the winning points.
(Then Northwestern fumbled on the last play of the game, resulting in an Michigan State defensive touchdown and a 29-20 final score.)
So this year, there is no back-slapping for Northwestern. Are they seeking revenge? Yes, that’s a motivator.
Safety Brandon Joseph:
“I did not forget that they were our one loss last year and I don’t think anyone on this team has,” Joseph said. “Like every Big Ten opponent, we know what they are and the capabilities they have so we are going to attack it the same way we attack everyone but I wasn’t lying, there’s still a vengeance there. We still have some making up to do for that loss last year, but we’re locked in, we’re ready to go.”
Northwestern tight end Charlie Mangieri (6-4, 250, Sr., Peoria, Ill.) has 12 career receptions.
THE MATCHUPS
* It’s hard to get a read on how these teams match up because … we haven’t seen the play.
But here are some of the storylines, seasoned with some of my expectations and educated guesses:
* I will be fascinated to see if Michigan State can run the ball in game one. Fascinated to see Walker at RB. Interested to see if the o-line has come along as well as people on the inside say has been the case.
* Jayden Reed was good last year. His body has improved. He’s a year older. I think he can go from good to very darn good. Having a capable QB with him will help. Being complemented by Jalen Nailor (who missed half of last season with an injury) will also help Reed. Having a functional running game will also help.
All of those things could and should add up to Reed becoming a highly-entertaining playmaker.
Under second-year offensive coordinator Jay Johnson, with Tucker’s blessing, Michigan State wants to be able to establish the run. That doesn’t necessarily mean the run will come first, second and third, hell or high water. That could mean play action deep pass on the first play of the game. In short, Michigan State can and will stretch the field deep more often than your usual establish-the-run type of program. The question is whether Michigan State has all the tools to do all of the things the playbook. We’ll begin to find out on Friday.
* How well Northwestern replaces retired defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz is one of the sneaky-big preseason of the season for the entire Big Ten. Northwestern has been a pesky presence in the Big Ten football picture for several years now, and Hankwitz has been a major reason why. His defenses weren’t always great, but it’s safe to say they were always better than they should have been.
Jim O’Neil is the new DC. He was DBs coach for the Raiders in the NFL for the past three yeas. He had stints as defensive coordinator for the Browns (2014-15) and 49ers (2016).
O’Neil says 75 percent of what he has installed has been new. But that includes play calls and verbiage.
“What it comes down to is when is Coach O’Neil going to call man-free, when is Coach O’Neill going to call a blitz?” Joseph said. “It’s going to be timing and how he approaches a game. Once we get into a game, we will see what kind of tendencies he has and when he likes to run certain coverages and blitzes. We might have a few more blitzes in there if you’re going to see anything different.”
Last year, I thought Northwestern went man-free (single safety deep, man-to-man underneath) too often on third down passing situations. That’s why I wrote in last year’s Pre-Snap Read that Rocky Lombardi could have success with the QB draw or QB runs on third-down passing situations, and that’s turned out to be true.
Northwestern was good last year with its two-deep zone coverages and cover-three zones, and had the ability to create simulated blitzes, where it was difficult to know how many were coming and whether a d-lineman was dropping. Indiana has been good at that too. D-coordinators who can get that done with good, not great, talent really have my respect.
O’Neill has big shoes to fill in replacing Hankwitz.
NORTHWESTERN OFFENSE vs MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
* I was surprised that senior Hunter Johnson beat out South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski for the starting QB job.
I thought Johnson was going to be an impact player two years ago, but he crapped the bed and Northwestern had a terrible season. So the Wildcats went out and got Payton Ramsey as a transfer QB from Indiana last year, and that was the move of the off-season in the Big Ten.
Now, Ramsey is gone, and Hunter Johnson is back for another crack.
He has terrific arm talent. That’s what made him a five-star recruit at Clemson. He left when it became clear he wasn’t going to beat out Trevor Lawrence.
Now, Johnson is trying to win Comeback Player of the Year (if such an award existed in college football).
“I feel like he has come a long way,” said Northwestern offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian, who arrived at Northwestern last year and wasn’t part of Johnson’s 2019 debacle. “His grasp of the offense and the level at which he is executing is very high right now. He has demonstrated a high level of competency and ability. I’ve seen him do a good job of not forcing balls into coverage and things like that.”
Johnson, of Brownsburg, Ind., did not attempt a pass last year. He was 50 of 108 in 2019 with four INTs and one TD. He was absolutely, surprisingly, horrid.
“I just think he is more confident,” Fitzgerald said of Johnson. “He has a better understanding of what we’re trying to do offensively and he has executed at a very high level.”
“Mentally, I’ve grown a lot,” Johnson said this week. “I’ve seen a lot of ball over the last couple of year an learned a lot from Coach Jake this past year and Payton was a great example for me to learn from last season. (I’m) definitely confident. It’s not my first go-‘round this time.”
But can his confidence get shaken back to 2019? Michigan State will try to do just that.
Johnson feels prepared.
“I think we’re extremely ready,” he said. “I think we’re ready to go out and cut it loose on the field and cut it loose in a game.”
All we have to go on is words.
Shrug.
THE NORTHWESTERN BACKFIELD
At running back, Northwestern lost its No. 1 guy, Cam Porter, to injury earlier in camp. Out for the season.
Evan Hull (5-11, 210, Maple Grove, Minn.) is expected to be the new feature back. He’s a Blake Ezor type of one-cut fast guy, but beefier from the waist down.
Hull averaged 8.4 yards on just 25 carries last year.
He had four TDs against UMass as a freshman in 2019.
Back-up Andrew Clair (5-11, 202, Sr., St. Louis) is a transfer from Bowling Green. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry in four games last year for the Falcons.
In 2018 as a sophomore, he was third-team All-MAC with 702 yards rushing.
He was also third-team All-MAC as a freshman in 2017, rushing for 725 yards. He broke the school record by averaging 6.8 yards per carry.
He played in only four games in 2019.
The No. 3 RB is expected to be 230-pound true freshman Anthony Tyus III of Portage Northern.
Michigan State offered Tyus during the winter of his junior year when Mark Dantonio was head coach. The current Michigan State staff didn’t seem to recruit him very hard. Tyus was a four-star Rivals.com recruit, making him one of the highest-rated recruits on the Wildcat team. Coaches like his power AND ability to make people miss. He will be motivated.
NORTHWESTERN RECEIVERS
The Wildcats gained a grad transfer from Kansas in Stephon Robinson (5-10, 180, Los Angeles).
All I have on him are stats and quotes.
He played in only three games last year due to injury.
In 2019, he had 45 catches for 727 yards with eight touchdowns. he averaged 16.2 yards per catch, which is pretty good.
In 2018, he was honorable mention All-Big 12 with 28 catches.
His 75 career receptions are 14 more than the rest of the Wildcat receivers combined.
“He is a technician with his routes,” QB Johnson said of Robinson. “He does a great job setting guys up and getting open.”
Bryce Kirtz and Berkeley Holman are expected to be the other top WRs.
Holman (5-11, 197, Irvine, Calif.) is the guy who was knocked cold while Shakur Brown secured a game-changing interception last year.
Holman had two catches last season, both against Michigan State. He had nine catches in 2019.
The WR group doesn’t seem great on paper, but Fitzgerald said this about them:
“I like that group a lot. That group is athletic and competitive. We’ve done a great job recruiting to that position. We will be a little bit younger but at the same time every bit if not more explosive than we’ve been in the past.”
THE LATEST ON MICHIGAN STATE
* Quarterback: Russo has been rallying. Thorne has been a promising prospect in the first half of his career, now can he keep it going?
* Running Back: Better than last year. It’s time for Walker to shine. And Eli Collins won’t be far behind. Competiton is great at that position, which is going to make it hard for someone, maybe Jordon Simmons, to stay in the loop.
* Offensive Line: No news is probably good news.
* Left guard J.D. Duplain is well-respected internally and capable of taking his game up a notch.
* Right tackle A.J. Arcuri has added some weight. He has looked good in the practice reps I’ve seen but I’ll be interested to see if he has lost any quickness in pass protection.
* Teammates and coaches love Matt Allen’s knowledge of the game. He struggled badly in the opener against Rutgers last year. I’ll stay open-minded about him until we see him play a little bit this season.
It’s strange that we’re still kind of learning about Arcuri and Allen when they are sixth-year seniors. But that’s the case.
* Many of us expected Kevin Jarvis to get back to All-Big Ten form when he was able to move back inside to right guard, and I haven’t seen or heard anything to dissuade that expectation. He’s back on track.
* Left tackle Jarrett Horst might not be ready for the hall of fame, but he’s been solid. Arcuri was pretty good at times last year, but Horst is expected to be an improvement. Not a bad deal.
* At wide receiver: Reed and Nailor are excellent. Montorie Foster is coming on strong. Tre Mosley had 21 catches as a true freshman two years ago, and is still quality. But if Foster emerges and takes snaps away from him, that’s just iron sharpening iron. Things looks pretty good here.
* At tight end, I was watching the Michigan State vs Northwestern 2020 game from last year, and Tyler Hunt wasn’t bad at all. Did he max out? Can he improve from last year’s form? Good question. You’ll find out when I do.
They need him to get some rest via help from reserves. Heyward has a chance to make more of an impact at TE than I might have thought. He’s working hard to get the blocking piece down. His hands are good. He has the desire.
* Can Trenton Gillison break through? He had some injury problems last year. But he’s behind schedule for his career. Michigan State could use good news surprises from him, but I haven’t heard much.
Is Purdue transfer Maliq Carr capable of making a dent a tight end? He’s an impressive specimen. Defenses will be on alert when he checks in. But his true value won’t be met until he shows he’s equally capable of run-blocking when he enters a game; that’s the pick-your-poison type of proposition an offense would like to force on an opponent. He’s probably not there yet.
Michigan State needs a pair of tight ends who can deliver blocks. Hunt has been functional. Adam Berghorst was on the field quite a bit against Northwestern last year and wasn’t bad; I haven’t heard anything about him this preseason. Parks Gissinger keeps finding his way onto the practice highlight reels. He’s not going to stretch a defense vertically, but Michigan State has use for an able-bodied blocker at tight end if he can deliver a few pitches.
* On defense, the d-tackles continue to be regarded as a strength, with Jalen Hunt, Jacob Slade and Dashawn Mallory leading the work. Mallory’s weight loss is well-documented. It will be interesting to see how much quickness he has added, and whether he last lost any interior strength.
Slade has had some dings but I haven’t heard about anything significant with him in terms of health negatives.
* Michigan State d-coordinator Scottie Hazelton said last year that Jalen Hunt was his third best defensive player, presumably behind Antjuan Simmons and Shakur Brown. Now the team needs Hunt to keep growing in that capacity and become a difference-maker. He has the capacity to do so. But we haven’t seen him on the field since last year’s Northwestern game, when he went down with a knee injury.
* At defensive end, Drew Beesley is taking the next steps as a leader. He had two sacks against Northwestern last year, including one as a defensive tackle in a passing situation. He’s been a nicely productive guy, here and there, in the past as a former walk-on. Now, can he take it up another notch and be the type of guy who can vie for second-team All-Big Ten honors? I don’t think so, but this guy has surprised me before.
* I thought Jacub Panasiuk was going to make a breakthrough last year, but COVID-19 slowed him down. We haven’t heard much about him in August camp, but once upon a time I thought he had 10-sack potential for a season. I’m not longer holding my breath on that expectation but, again, when a new season begins, players and teams sometimes enjoy massive growth out of nowhere.
* Duke transfer Drew Jordan had a quiet August after losing a lot of weight during the off-season. However, Beesley was complementary of him earlier this week. If nothing else, he should be a quality reserve.
* Michael Fletcher has added good weight at d-end. He’s a play finisher, a good complementary player who can rise up with a noisy play here and there. He was a solid player last year. Now that he’s bigger and stronger, I wouldn’t be shocked if he shows a lot of improvement this year.
* At linebacker, Noah Harvey should be improved with another year in the system. Quavaris Crouch is quite an athlete, with good experience. Cal Haladay is a riser.
Key x-factor for the season: Can Michigan State get tough, smart, fast play from it’s linebackers this year?
Tough? Michigan State should be fine in that category at the two inside linebacker positions. Harvey started last year at Mike linebacker and figures to be a starter this year, although he repped as a second- or third-string Will linebacker during last week’s public practice. The Spartans are/were trying to mix and match their linebackers a little bit in order to manufacture some depth and flexibility. I’m not expecting Harvey to be demoted from last year’s starting role for the outset of this season. Could other players emerge and eclipse him? That’s possible. But for now, I’m expecting Harvey to call the signals in the middle.
Harvey was good enough last year when allowed to be aggressive in a one-gapping system. He struggled when Michigan State asked him to two-gap and make more reads.
I’m not saying the two-gapping scheme is wrong. Most of the top teams are able to do both. Michigan State is trying to get there. Harvey was rarely asked to do both under the Dantonio/Tressel system. It was new for him a year ago. He said in the spring that he has improved in that area. Michigan State needs improvement from him. I suspect he will be improved when Michigan State two-gaps, and the result will be that Harvey won’t look as slow as he did at times last year. He’s not slow. He’s not fast. But he runs well enough if he has a great feel for what he’s supposed to do. If he has that feel this year, it will make a difference. As of now, we have no idea if he has made that jump. There’s talk that he has, but talking season is coming to an end.
Crouch is a big, athletic, smiling force of football goodness who transferred from Tennessee. Crouch’s experience with the Vols was similar to Harvey’s at Michigan State, according to a conversation I had with Crouch’s high school coach. When he’s able to pull the pin and go, he can play like the four-star recruit who signed with the Vols out of Charlotte, N.C. When he has to read and be responsible for more than one gap, he hasn’t been as smooth.
You have to be fast, quick, strong, tough, smart, instinctive and all those wonderful things to play linebacker well for a sophisticated, Top 10 type of defense - which is what Michigan State expects to be at some point in the Tucker/Hazelton era. Michigan State might blow up a few rocket ships on its way to the moon, and continued slippage at linebacker might be a continued problem area on the launching pad in 2021.
Crouch has ability. Everyone can see that. He’s had a few weeks of practice to learn the system and adhere to the staff’s expectations. We have seen in practice a few times when coaches have needed to reprogram Crouch’s motor to finish through the whistle. Little things like that become second-nature when a coaching staff has had two, three, four years to engrain players in their way of doing things. There’s a reason Tucker calls it a process.
Crouch has the physical ability to deliver. But don’t expect Hall of Fame highlights from him on every series.
There is extreme expectation for the linebackers to make correct reads, fit the proper gaps and do it while flowing with quickness, smarts and force. It’s expected. It’s harder than it looks. It’s an area of the game and an area of the team that could have used games against Youngstown State and Western Kentucky BEFORE the Big Ten opener. But big stakes TV contracts in a big stakes sport no longer provide for that luxury. So ready or not, linebackers better be ready to fit and hit.
In the meantime, sophomore Cal Haladay is earning trust rapidly. Tucker beamed on Tuesday when describing him as a throwback type of player.
Michigan transfer Ben VanSumeren was complimented by coaches for his football I.Q. earlier in camp. As a back-up for Michigan, the Wolverines usually went with a two-gapping system when he entered the game. He has his mind properly wrapped around things. There have been questions about his speed and mobility. I’m not Gil Brandt when it comes to scouting, but I thought VanSumeren moved kind of surprisingly well when I’ve watched him in practice. I’ll reseve final judgement until I see him try to go sideline to sideline for the Spartans this year. That’s it’s called an x-factor.
* Ronald Williams continues to earn compliments at cornerback. Coming from the University of Alabama, he had turn-key intensity from the jump - to go with his strong, 6-2 frame and Saban-approved quicks.
* Kalon Gervin was a starter last year. I expect him to be improved. And he will need to be improved to stay ahead of Williams and Florida transfer Chester Kimbrough.
Either way, I’m expecting all three to get a lot of playing time. There is good talent here. They just need to get on the same page with the safeties and learn to play well together as a collective back seven. That’s tricky, and dangerous, when the first game of the season is a tricky conference game.
* At safety, Xavier Henderson is ready to lead, and steady. He is bringing along his tag team partner, Angelo Grose.
When I rewatched the Michigan State-Northwestern game this week, I was reminded of some of Grose’s excellent freshman work. He was a tackling MACHINE in the second quarter of last year’s game against the Wildcats. He was a force.
He still has the ability to be a force, now at his new free safety position. He will be a very good one there at some point. Whether or not he and the rest of the secondary can get on the same page in time for this opponent, and remain solvent for 60 minutes, will have a big impact on who wins this game.
I have no doubt that a secondary comprised of these candidates CAN become a quality group at some point this season. It’s just asking a lot to get it all tied together in just one preseason camp.
* On special teams, Matt Coghlin nailed that 55-yarder in the open practice last week. That was nice to see. Punting was inconsistent last year, and I suspect it will remain that way. The big thing that needs to get fixed is the punt coverage unit. They allowed two returns for TDs last year, including a dam-breaker against Iowa. That’s the type of loose end that needs to be fixed in order for this team to entertain thoughts of getting to .500 or better.
ADD IT ALL UP
I think Michigan State has a little better chance to get solid QB play in this game than Northwestern. Hunter Johnson has some proving to do (but his ceiling of potential is immense).
I think Michigan State has a little better chance to get its run game going than Northwestern. I think Walker and Collins are a little more proven and explosive than Northwestern’s backs. Both teams have pretty good defensive lines. I am expecting MSU’s o-line to be a little better than Northwestern’s. I could be wrong, but I’m expecting that to add up to an edge to the Spartans in the run game.
MSU’s secondary has good individuals, but we don’t know how well they will play collectively. The Michigan State pass rush will probably be fair to middling. Northwestern’s pass protection last year was not great. Michigan State made an impact with its pass rush.
Northwestern has had good pass rushers in recent seasons. The guy who transferred to Auburn, Eku Leota, was an underrated riser. It’s good for Michigan State that he’s gone. Northwestern is excited to have Samdup Miller back this year after he opted out last season. I don’t have any film on him. No. 99 Adetomiwa Adebawore (6-2, 265, Jr., Kansas City) has three career sacks, but he’s better than that.
My notes on him last year prior to the Michigan State-Northwestern game:
* 5.5 three-star recruit, ranked No. 25 in Missouri.
* Spring commitment over offers from Iowa, Navy, Army, Air Force, Ivys, mid-majors.
* True sophomore and a rising figure in the Big Ten.
+ Quick get-off and closing speed. He can dip the shoulder a little bit on the pass rush too.
* Quick lateral movement to play the zone read when optioned.
+ Worked together with 99 Brown on a stunt for a sack vs Maryland.
* Leads the team with seven hurries. Also has two sacks.
No. 99, Adebawore, has the potential to change a game with sack/fumble, similar to the way Nebraska lost control of last week’s game against Illinois with a sack/scoop/score. This is where the additon of Jarrett Horst needs to ring true. Need to put a silencer on 99. Can Horst do it? I think Horst is pretty good. 99 is pretty good. 99 will get free once or twice. I don’t think you can stop him all day. But Michigan State can’t let him be a difference-maker.
I like MSU’s chances of getting its pass game going a little more than Northwestern’s chances. Maybe Hunter Johnson will make a believer out of me, but right now if you choose either of MSU’s QB candidates you’ll find a guy who is more proven at this level than Johnson. And if Russo gets the call, he’s way more proven than Johnson.
Russo threw a lot of interceptions at Rutgers, but he also threw for 6,000 yards. If he has improved his decision-making, as was the goal from the beginning, this weekend could end up being all about Russo.
I think Russo has more quality, proven receivers to work with than Johnson.
If the Michigan State QB has time to throw, is complemented by a quality running game, if his receivers are gaining separation and finishing plays, and if the defense and special teams set the table well for the offense, then I think either quarterback is equipped to keep things stapled together at the most important position on the field.
Either Michigan State quarterback can do enough, as long as you don’t ask them to do it all.
In time, perhaps Thorne can develop into a game-rescue type of talent. Maybe Russo has that ability in him right now, if he gets more help from teammates than he had at Temple, and if some fine-tuning from Michigan State coaches have helped him take the next step as a quarterback in terms of decision-making.
We can be fairly certain that QB play this year will be improved over last year. That’s what you want at all positions in year two of a rebuilding program, and there is reason to believe that the Spartans will have that kind of improvement at almost every position.
Now can it get stapled together in time for a season-opener on the road against a revenge-seeking program that is known for limiting mistakes?
I think Michigan State is likely to be better than Northwestern by mid-October. I’m just not sure they’re ready to limit mistakes as effectively as is normally the case with Northwestern.
There are so many question marks. So much on the line. So early. So great. Who wins? I would lean toward the home team with the more proven track record of tidy football.
East Lansing, Mich. - I was in a traffic back-up on Grand River Avenue yesterday. First time time in 18 months. It felt good.
Tuesday, when I drove to campus for the press conference, I saw a group of three students standing and pointing and looking around in wonderment. Each of them held a piece of paper. It’s still easy to spot a lost freshmen. And some of them still use paper maps of the campus.
I was at El Azteco a couple of nights ago. It was brimming with college students, and very few males for some reason. Temperatures were warm. Lots of smiles. It felt like we were near a college campus again.
There was a deejay spinning music in the cemented courtyard area below. I couldn’t see them down there, from where I was sitting. But he drew a crowd. I heard someone yell “Go Green!” A bunch of people upstairs in the restaurant heard the voice and answered back, “Go White!”
It’s good to be home.
I never left.
But the atmosphere did.
Now it’s back.
Even for a road game.
Let’s kick it off:
******
First things first: The quarterback, the coach, and final analysis first.
THE QUARTERBACK
Twenty-four hours before kickoff, I don’t know who is going to get the start at QB for Michigan State. I don’t think we will know until pregame practice at Ryan Field prior to Friday night’s Michigan State game at Northwestern at 9:15 p.m.
Payton Thorne came out of the spring as the No. 1 QB. He held that post for most of August camp. Anthony Russo closed the gap during the second half of August camp. Whether or not Russo surpassed Thorne, I do not know.
As for leaks and word from insiders, I can say that I’ve heard from two accurate insiders this week. One said Thorne. The next day, the other said Russo. So there might even be some disinformation thrown around out there.
I think either QB is capable of playing winning football. I felt like Thorne was steadily improving, from 2019, through last November and into the spring. Whether or not that improvement has plateaued momentarily, I do not know.
Russo has needed to become a better quarterback, a cleaner decision-maker, in order to push Thorne in this competition. If and when he gets his chance, it will be interesting to see if he shows improvement over his Temple days. I suspect he would/will.
2. The Coach: Mel Tucker is beginning his second season at Michigan State. Last year was a spoiled specimen. He doesn’t make excuses, so he’s not calling last year a mulligan. But it was a mulligan, in most ways - even in light of Tucker’s eyebrow-raising ability to get the team up physically and mentally for upset victories over Michigan and then-No. 8 Northwestern.
I can see and sense real progress around the team and program on a macro level. Tucker has something. He’s an energetic, engaging personality, bolstered by terrific x’s and o’s knowledge and respect. And he’ll be strong in the recruiting living rooms when he finally gets a chance to go there in an Michigan State shirt this fall and winter.
The next thing we need to see is whether his teams can consistently play the type of physical, mistake-free football that is necessary to harness a level of consistency in this conference. (Mistake-free might be too strong of a phrase. It might be impossible to play completely mistake-free, but you know what I mean).
I’ve been impressed with Tucker’s ability to organize a program, organize a staff, organize a practice and preside over it with urgency, diligence and discipline.
I suspect that these principles will carry over to the field on gamedays, and eventually we will see a clean, sharp brand of football. But I don’t know for sure. That’s the main thing that needs to be delivered because from my seat, he is on his way toward delivering everywhere else.
If we don’t see Michigan State play a clean, sharp, physical brand of football on Friday against Northwestern, that doesn’t mean it’s never going to be harnessed. But if we do see it on Friday, win or lose, and we begin seeing it on a week-in, week-out basis, like we did in the early years of the Dantonio era, that’s when we’ll know that something strong is being established.
******
I want to reiterate something that Paul Konyndyk and I talked about during the V-Cast earlier this week. We have been reporting a lot of the positive comments and quotes from preseason camp, including some of our observations, dating back to things we’ve seen and heard on the recruiting trail.
Michigan State has indeed improved the talent level of the roster.
But if Michigan State fails to win six games this year, that means there will be at least seven unhappy Saturdays. If that happens, I’m hoping that readers don’t feel that we have tried to convince them that the team is or was going to be an outstanding one. I’m hesitant to predict anything better than a 6-6 season, mainly because there are so many unproven - but talented - commodities.
We have relayed a lot of positive news from August camp. I don’t want that to be construed as being more than it is. When Michigan State loses some games, I hope I don’t read posts from disgruntled Maggers claiming they were hoodwinked and sold a bill of good. Hopefully we have communicated our reports and observations in an even-handed fashion.
******
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
Pre-game analysis of a college football season opener is always full of guesswork.
We haven’t seen either of these teams play. We haven’t seen either program field a team in nine or 10 months. But somehow Vegas has come up with a line favoring Northwestern by four or five points. They have to set it somewhere.
Here’s the deal: These seem like two evenly-matched teams. An evenly-matched game in the Big Ten, this early in the year, is most likely going to be decided by mistakes. You saw it in the Nebraska-Illinois game. That game was decided purely by Nebraska mistakes.
As for Michigan State vs Northwestern, last year’s game was decided by mistakes. Surprisingly, Northwestern was the team that committed the majority of them.
Northwestern has enjoyed some divisional championship seasons under Pat Fitzgerald. When they have risen to that level, they’ve done it with smart, physical, opportunistic football and limited mistakes. They had that formula last year in every game other than their loss at Michigan State.
This week’s game will be decided by mistakes. Mel Tucker has a shorter track record as a head coach. He’s had a pair of sub-.500 seasons in rebuilding mode. He may prove to be a great stickler for tight screws and perfected details. But for now, Fitzgerald is the coach with the cleaner track record in that area, despite the fact that Fitzgerald failed to deliver in that category in last year’s matchup against Tucker and the Spartans.
So go ahead and plug in the usual clichés for this game. The’re all applicable. The team that can stop the run, establish the run, prevent big plays and avoid mistakes will win. It’s not rocket science.
“It’s not like we are looking to spring anything on anyone,” Tucker said. “We are not going out there to build a rocket. We’re going out there to play ball. We’ll see who lines up out there when we line up and we’re going to play. But we’re not trying to fool anyone. It’s not going to be that type of game. It’s a Big Ten game. It’s going to be about execution and playing hard for 60 minutes.”
So which team is better-equipped to play hard for 60 minutes?
Michigan State stunned everyone last year by rushing for 207 yards against Northwestern. Michigan State had ranked outside of the Top 110 teams in the nation in rushing offense prior to that game. And then they went out and chugged forward for consistent tailback gains of 5 yards, 4 yards, 6 yards, 3 yards. Connor Heyward did most of the work, which was another surprise.
The offensive line, which was spotty and inconsistent for most of the years, got a little bit of movement on a consistent basis with its double team blocks. That was enough of a dent to set up the rest of the outfit, which was sparked initially by a 75-yard TD pass from Rocky Lombardi to Jalen Nailor. The player Nailor beat for that TD was be nched in the second half and has since transferred to Temple.
The o-line which delivered those blocks last year is back pretty much intact - a year older, stronger, with a new left tackle and what is expected to be better cohesion.
The Northwestern defensive line has new starters at defensive tackle. They have proven starters at d-end, including one (Samdup Miller) who opted out of last year. Northwestern lost a defensive end to the NFL Draft (Earnest Brown) and two key, multi-year starters at inside linebacker, including Paddy Fisher.
So the Northwestern defensive front seven is being restocked.
And Northwestern is doing it with a new defensive coordinator, Jim O’Neil, who has coordinating experience in the NFL and was a grad assistant at Northwestern for Randy Walker back when Fitzgerald was a position coach for the Wildcats.
Michigan State will be attacking that defensive front with a new backfield. Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker III has impressed. Elijah Collins is rejuvenated.
Connor Heyward is playing to good reviews as an H-back. He has good hands. I’ve been impressed in the thud practicing that I’ve seen, and some brief glimpses of scrimmages, of how hard Heyward is trying to establish himself as a blocker.
Many of the names have changed, but the principles remain the same.
Can Michigan State run the ball against Northwestern … for a second straight year?
******
Last season, Michigan State benefitted from the age old football adage of WHEN the game was played. As in, it’s not always important who you play, but WHEN you play that opponent.
Michigan State caught Northwestern a week after the Wildcats beat Wisconsin, 17-7, in a wonderfully physical tilt. The collisions in that game were hammer vs anvil. After Northwestern outlasted the Badgers, I suspect the Wildcats came away from that game with a few bruises and too much back-slapping. They were NOT the same team a week later when Michigan State jumped out to a 17-0 lead.
Northwestern inched back to a 20-17 lead in the fourth quarter. But then the first time Northwestern had an offensive snap with the lead, the Wildcats fumbled an end-around handoff. Michigan State recovered, gained a first down, and Matt Coghlin nailed 44-yard field goal to tie the game with 10:11 to play.
Then, Michigan State ended Northwestern’s next possession when Shakur Brown knocked WR Berkeley Holman cold while diving in front of him for an interception.
Michigan State gained one first down after Brown’s interception - on a Lombardi diving scramble on third-and-eight - to put Coghlin in range for the winning points.
(Then Northwestern fumbled on the last play of the game, resulting in an Michigan State defensive touchdown and a 29-20 final score.)
So this year, there is no back-slapping for Northwestern. Are they seeking revenge? Yes, that’s a motivator.
Safety Brandon Joseph:
“I did not forget that they were our one loss last year and I don’t think anyone on this team has,” Joseph said. “Like every Big Ten opponent, we know what they are and the capabilities they have so we are going to attack it the same way we attack everyone but I wasn’t lying, there’s still a vengeance there. We still have some making up to do for that loss last year, but we’re locked in, we’re ready to go.”
Northwestern tight end Charlie Mangieri (6-4, 250, Sr., Peoria, Ill.) has 12 career receptions.
THE MATCHUPS
* It’s hard to get a read on how these teams match up because … we haven’t seen the play.
But here are some of the storylines, seasoned with some of my expectations and educated guesses:
* I will be fascinated to see if Michigan State can run the ball in game one. Fascinated to see Walker at RB. Interested to see if the o-line has come along as well as people on the inside say has been the case.
* Jayden Reed was good last year. His body has improved. He’s a year older. I think he can go from good to very darn good. Having a capable QB with him will help. Being complemented by Jalen Nailor (who missed half of last season with an injury) will also help Reed. Having a functional running game will also help.
All of those things could and should add up to Reed becoming a highly-entertaining playmaker.
Under second-year offensive coordinator Jay Johnson, with Tucker’s blessing, Michigan State wants to be able to establish the run. That doesn’t necessarily mean the run will come first, second and third, hell or high water. That could mean play action deep pass on the first play of the game. In short, Michigan State can and will stretch the field deep more often than your usual establish-the-run type of program. The question is whether Michigan State has all the tools to do all of the things the playbook. We’ll begin to find out on Friday.
* How well Northwestern replaces retired defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz is one of the sneaky-big preseason of the season for the entire Big Ten. Northwestern has been a pesky presence in the Big Ten football picture for several years now, and Hankwitz has been a major reason why. His defenses weren’t always great, but it’s safe to say they were always better than they should have been.
Jim O’Neil is the new DC. He was DBs coach for the Raiders in the NFL for the past three yeas. He had stints as defensive coordinator for the Browns (2014-15) and 49ers (2016).
O’Neil says 75 percent of what he has installed has been new. But that includes play calls and verbiage.
“What it comes down to is when is Coach O’Neil going to call man-free, when is Coach O’Neill going to call a blitz?” Joseph said. “It’s going to be timing and how he approaches a game. Once we get into a game, we will see what kind of tendencies he has and when he likes to run certain coverages and blitzes. We might have a few more blitzes in there if you’re going to see anything different.”
Last year, I thought Northwestern went man-free (single safety deep, man-to-man underneath) too often on third down passing situations. That’s why I wrote in last year’s Pre-Snap Read that Rocky Lombardi could have success with the QB draw or QB runs on third-down passing situations, and that’s turned out to be true.
Northwestern was good last year with its two-deep zone coverages and cover-three zones, and had the ability to create simulated blitzes, where it was difficult to know how many were coming and whether a d-lineman was dropping. Indiana has been good at that too. D-coordinators who can get that done with good, not great, talent really have my respect.
O’Neill has big shoes to fill in replacing Hankwitz.
NORTHWESTERN OFFENSE vs MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE
* I was surprised that senior Hunter Johnson beat out South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski for the starting QB job.
I thought Johnson was going to be an impact player two years ago, but he crapped the bed and Northwestern had a terrible season. So the Wildcats went out and got Payton Ramsey as a transfer QB from Indiana last year, and that was the move of the off-season in the Big Ten.
Now, Ramsey is gone, and Hunter Johnson is back for another crack.
He has terrific arm talent. That’s what made him a five-star recruit at Clemson. He left when it became clear he wasn’t going to beat out Trevor Lawrence.
Now, Johnson is trying to win Comeback Player of the Year (if such an award existed in college football).
“I feel like he has come a long way,” said Northwestern offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian, who arrived at Northwestern last year and wasn’t part of Johnson’s 2019 debacle. “His grasp of the offense and the level at which he is executing is very high right now. He has demonstrated a high level of competency and ability. I’ve seen him do a good job of not forcing balls into coverage and things like that.”
Johnson, of Brownsburg, Ind., did not attempt a pass last year. He was 50 of 108 in 2019 with four INTs and one TD. He was absolutely, surprisingly, horrid.
“I just think he is more confident,” Fitzgerald said of Johnson. “He has a better understanding of what we’re trying to do offensively and he has executed at a very high level.”
“Mentally, I’ve grown a lot,” Johnson said this week. “I’ve seen a lot of ball over the last couple of year an learned a lot from Coach Jake this past year and Payton was a great example for me to learn from last season. (I’m) definitely confident. It’s not my first go-‘round this time.”
But can his confidence get shaken back to 2019? Michigan State will try to do just that.
Johnson feels prepared.
“I think we’re extremely ready,” he said. “I think we’re ready to go out and cut it loose on the field and cut it loose in a game.”
All we have to go on is words.
Shrug.
THE NORTHWESTERN BACKFIELD
At running back, Northwestern lost its No. 1 guy, Cam Porter, to injury earlier in camp. Out for the season.
Evan Hull (5-11, 210, Maple Grove, Minn.) is expected to be the new feature back. He’s a Blake Ezor type of one-cut fast guy, but beefier from the waist down.
Hull averaged 8.4 yards on just 25 carries last year.
He had four TDs against UMass as a freshman in 2019.
Back-up Andrew Clair (5-11, 202, Sr., St. Louis) is a transfer from Bowling Green. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry in four games last year for the Falcons.
In 2018 as a sophomore, he was third-team All-MAC with 702 yards rushing.
He was also third-team All-MAC as a freshman in 2017, rushing for 725 yards. He broke the school record by averaging 6.8 yards per carry.
He played in only four games in 2019.
The No. 3 RB is expected to be 230-pound true freshman Anthony Tyus III of Portage Northern.
Michigan State offered Tyus during the winter of his junior year when Mark Dantonio was head coach. The current Michigan State staff didn’t seem to recruit him very hard. Tyus was a four-star Rivals.com recruit, making him one of the highest-rated recruits on the Wildcat team. Coaches like his power AND ability to make people miss. He will be motivated.
NORTHWESTERN RECEIVERS
The Wildcats gained a grad transfer from Kansas in Stephon Robinson (5-10, 180, Los Angeles).
All I have on him are stats and quotes.
He played in only three games last year due to injury.
In 2019, he had 45 catches for 727 yards with eight touchdowns. he averaged 16.2 yards per catch, which is pretty good.
In 2018, he was honorable mention All-Big 12 with 28 catches.
His 75 career receptions are 14 more than the rest of the Wildcat receivers combined.
“He is a technician with his routes,” QB Johnson said of Robinson. “He does a great job setting guys up and getting open.”
Bryce Kirtz and Berkeley Holman are expected to be the other top WRs.
Holman (5-11, 197, Irvine, Calif.) is the guy who was knocked cold while Shakur Brown secured a game-changing interception last year.
Holman had two catches last season, both against Michigan State. He had nine catches in 2019.
The WR group doesn’t seem great on paper, but Fitzgerald said this about them:
“I like that group a lot. That group is athletic and competitive. We’ve done a great job recruiting to that position. We will be a little bit younger but at the same time every bit if not more explosive than we’ve been in the past.”
THE LATEST ON MICHIGAN STATE
* Quarterback: Russo has been rallying. Thorne has been a promising prospect in the first half of his career, now can he keep it going?
* Running Back: Better than last year. It’s time for Walker to shine. And Eli Collins won’t be far behind. Competiton is great at that position, which is going to make it hard for someone, maybe Jordon Simmons, to stay in the loop.
* Offensive Line: No news is probably good news.
* Left guard J.D. Duplain is well-respected internally and capable of taking his game up a notch.
* Right tackle A.J. Arcuri has added some weight. He has looked good in the practice reps I’ve seen but I’ll be interested to see if he has lost any quickness in pass protection.
* Teammates and coaches love Matt Allen’s knowledge of the game. He struggled badly in the opener against Rutgers last year. I’ll stay open-minded about him until we see him play a little bit this season.
It’s strange that we’re still kind of learning about Arcuri and Allen when they are sixth-year seniors. But that’s the case.
* Many of us expected Kevin Jarvis to get back to All-Big Ten form when he was able to move back inside to right guard, and I haven’t seen or heard anything to dissuade that expectation. He’s back on track.
* Left tackle Jarrett Horst might not be ready for the hall of fame, but he’s been solid. Arcuri was pretty good at times last year, but Horst is expected to be an improvement. Not a bad deal.
* At wide receiver: Reed and Nailor are excellent. Montorie Foster is coming on strong. Tre Mosley had 21 catches as a true freshman two years ago, and is still quality. But if Foster emerges and takes snaps away from him, that’s just iron sharpening iron. Things looks pretty good here.
* At tight end, I was watching the Michigan State vs Northwestern 2020 game from last year, and Tyler Hunt wasn’t bad at all. Did he max out? Can he improve from last year’s form? Good question. You’ll find out when I do.
They need him to get some rest via help from reserves. Heyward has a chance to make more of an impact at TE than I might have thought. He’s working hard to get the blocking piece down. His hands are good. He has the desire.
* Can Trenton Gillison break through? He had some injury problems last year. But he’s behind schedule for his career. Michigan State could use good news surprises from him, but I haven’t heard much.
Is Purdue transfer Maliq Carr capable of making a dent a tight end? He’s an impressive specimen. Defenses will be on alert when he checks in. But his true value won’t be met until he shows he’s equally capable of run-blocking when he enters a game; that’s the pick-your-poison type of proposition an offense would like to force on an opponent. He’s probably not there yet.
Michigan State needs a pair of tight ends who can deliver blocks. Hunt has been functional. Adam Berghorst was on the field quite a bit against Northwestern last year and wasn’t bad; I haven’t heard anything about him this preseason. Parks Gissinger keeps finding his way onto the practice highlight reels. He’s not going to stretch a defense vertically, but Michigan State has use for an able-bodied blocker at tight end if he can deliver a few pitches.
* On defense, the d-tackles continue to be regarded as a strength, with Jalen Hunt, Jacob Slade and Dashawn Mallory leading the work. Mallory’s weight loss is well-documented. It will be interesting to see how much quickness he has added, and whether he last lost any interior strength.
Slade has had some dings but I haven’t heard about anything significant with him in terms of health negatives.
* Michigan State d-coordinator Scottie Hazelton said last year that Jalen Hunt was his third best defensive player, presumably behind Antjuan Simmons and Shakur Brown. Now the team needs Hunt to keep growing in that capacity and become a difference-maker. He has the capacity to do so. But we haven’t seen him on the field since last year’s Northwestern game, when he went down with a knee injury.
* At defensive end, Drew Beesley is taking the next steps as a leader. He had two sacks against Northwestern last year, including one as a defensive tackle in a passing situation. He’s been a nicely productive guy, here and there, in the past as a former walk-on. Now, can he take it up another notch and be the type of guy who can vie for second-team All-Big Ten honors? I don’t think so, but this guy has surprised me before.
* I thought Jacub Panasiuk was going to make a breakthrough last year, but COVID-19 slowed him down. We haven’t heard much about him in August camp, but once upon a time I thought he had 10-sack potential for a season. I’m not longer holding my breath on that expectation but, again, when a new season begins, players and teams sometimes enjoy massive growth out of nowhere.
* Duke transfer Drew Jordan had a quiet August after losing a lot of weight during the off-season. However, Beesley was complementary of him earlier this week. If nothing else, he should be a quality reserve.
* Michael Fletcher has added good weight at d-end. He’s a play finisher, a good complementary player who can rise up with a noisy play here and there. He was a solid player last year. Now that he’s bigger and stronger, I wouldn’t be shocked if he shows a lot of improvement this year.
* At linebacker, Noah Harvey should be improved with another year in the system. Quavaris Crouch is quite an athlete, with good experience. Cal Haladay is a riser.
Key x-factor for the season: Can Michigan State get tough, smart, fast play from it’s linebackers this year?
Tough? Michigan State should be fine in that category at the two inside linebacker positions. Harvey started last year at Mike linebacker and figures to be a starter this year, although he repped as a second- or third-string Will linebacker during last week’s public practice. The Spartans are/were trying to mix and match their linebackers a little bit in order to manufacture some depth and flexibility. I’m not expecting Harvey to be demoted from last year’s starting role for the outset of this season. Could other players emerge and eclipse him? That’s possible. But for now, I’m expecting Harvey to call the signals in the middle.
Harvey was good enough last year when allowed to be aggressive in a one-gapping system. He struggled when Michigan State asked him to two-gap and make more reads.
I’m not saying the two-gapping scheme is wrong. Most of the top teams are able to do both. Michigan State is trying to get there. Harvey was rarely asked to do both under the Dantonio/Tressel system. It was new for him a year ago. He said in the spring that he has improved in that area. Michigan State needs improvement from him. I suspect he will be improved when Michigan State two-gaps, and the result will be that Harvey won’t look as slow as he did at times last year. He’s not slow. He’s not fast. But he runs well enough if he has a great feel for what he’s supposed to do. If he has that feel this year, it will make a difference. As of now, we have no idea if he has made that jump. There’s talk that he has, but talking season is coming to an end.
Crouch is a big, athletic, smiling force of football goodness who transferred from Tennessee. Crouch’s experience with the Vols was similar to Harvey’s at Michigan State, according to a conversation I had with Crouch’s high school coach. When he’s able to pull the pin and go, he can play like the four-star recruit who signed with the Vols out of Charlotte, N.C. When he has to read and be responsible for more than one gap, he hasn’t been as smooth.
You have to be fast, quick, strong, tough, smart, instinctive and all those wonderful things to play linebacker well for a sophisticated, Top 10 type of defense - which is what Michigan State expects to be at some point in the Tucker/Hazelton era. Michigan State might blow up a few rocket ships on its way to the moon, and continued slippage at linebacker might be a continued problem area on the launching pad in 2021.
Crouch has ability. Everyone can see that. He’s had a few weeks of practice to learn the system and adhere to the staff’s expectations. We have seen in practice a few times when coaches have needed to reprogram Crouch’s motor to finish through the whistle. Little things like that become second-nature when a coaching staff has had two, three, four years to engrain players in their way of doing things. There’s a reason Tucker calls it a process.
Crouch has the physical ability to deliver. But don’t expect Hall of Fame highlights from him on every series.
There is extreme expectation for the linebackers to make correct reads, fit the proper gaps and do it while flowing with quickness, smarts and force. It’s expected. It’s harder than it looks. It’s an area of the game and an area of the team that could have used games against Youngstown State and Western Kentucky BEFORE the Big Ten opener. But big stakes TV contracts in a big stakes sport no longer provide for that luxury. So ready or not, linebackers better be ready to fit and hit.
In the meantime, sophomore Cal Haladay is earning trust rapidly. Tucker beamed on Tuesday when describing him as a throwback type of player.
Michigan transfer Ben VanSumeren was complimented by coaches for his football I.Q. earlier in camp. As a back-up for Michigan, the Wolverines usually went with a two-gapping system when he entered the game. He has his mind properly wrapped around things. There have been questions about his speed and mobility. I’m not Gil Brandt when it comes to scouting, but I thought VanSumeren moved kind of surprisingly well when I’ve watched him in practice. I’ll reseve final judgement until I see him try to go sideline to sideline for the Spartans this year. That’s it’s called an x-factor.
* Ronald Williams continues to earn compliments at cornerback. Coming from the University of Alabama, he had turn-key intensity from the jump - to go with his strong, 6-2 frame and Saban-approved quicks.
* Kalon Gervin was a starter last year. I expect him to be improved. And he will need to be improved to stay ahead of Williams and Florida transfer Chester Kimbrough.
Either way, I’m expecting all three to get a lot of playing time. There is good talent here. They just need to get on the same page with the safeties and learn to play well together as a collective back seven. That’s tricky, and dangerous, when the first game of the season is a tricky conference game.
* At safety, Xavier Henderson is ready to lead, and steady. He is bringing along his tag team partner, Angelo Grose.
When I rewatched the Michigan State-Northwestern game this week, I was reminded of some of Grose’s excellent freshman work. He was a tackling MACHINE in the second quarter of last year’s game against the Wildcats. He was a force.
He still has the ability to be a force, now at his new free safety position. He will be a very good one there at some point. Whether or not he and the rest of the secondary can get on the same page in time for this opponent, and remain solvent for 60 minutes, will have a big impact on who wins this game.
I have no doubt that a secondary comprised of these candidates CAN become a quality group at some point this season. It’s just asking a lot to get it all tied together in just one preseason camp.
* On special teams, Matt Coghlin nailed that 55-yarder in the open practice last week. That was nice to see. Punting was inconsistent last year, and I suspect it will remain that way. The big thing that needs to get fixed is the punt coverage unit. They allowed two returns for TDs last year, including a dam-breaker against Iowa. That’s the type of loose end that needs to be fixed in order for this team to entertain thoughts of getting to .500 or better.
ADD IT ALL UP
I think Michigan State has a little better chance to get solid QB play in this game than Northwestern. Hunter Johnson has some proving to do (but his ceiling of potential is immense).
I think Michigan State has a little better chance to get its run game going than Northwestern. I think Walker and Collins are a little more proven and explosive than Northwestern’s backs. Both teams have pretty good defensive lines. I am expecting MSU’s o-line to be a little better than Northwestern’s. I could be wrong, but I’m expecting that to add up to an edge to the Spartans in the run game.
MSU’s secondary has good individuals, but we don’t know how well they will play collectively. The Michigan State pass rush will probably be fair to middling. Northwestern’s pass protection last year was not great. Michigan State made an impact with its pass rush.
Northwestern has had good pass rushers in recent seasons. The guy who transferred to Auburn, Eku Leota, was an underrated riser. It’s good for Michigan State that he’s gone. Northwestern is excited to have Samdup Miller back this year after he opted out last season. I don’t have any film on him. No. 99 Adetomiwa Adebawore (6-2, 265, Jr., Kansas City) has three career sacks, but he’s better than that.
My notes on him last year prior to the Michigan State-Northwestern game:
* 5.5 three-star recruit, ranked No. 25 in Missouri.
* Spring commitment over offers from Iowa, Navy, Army, Air Force, Ivys, mid-majors.
* True sophomore and a rising figure in the Big Ten.
+ Quick get-off and closing speed. He can dip the shoulder a little bit on the pass rush too.
* Quick lateral movement to play the zone read when optioned.
+ Worked together with 99 Brown on a stunt for a sack vs Maryland.
* Leads the team with seven hurries. Also has two sacks.
No. 99, Adebawore, has the potential to change a game with sack/fumble, similar to the way Nebraska lost control of last week’s game against Illinois with a sack/scoop/score. This is where the additon of Jarrett Horst needs to ring true. Need to put a silencer on 99. Can Horst do it? I think Horst is pretty good. 99 is pretty good. 99 will get free once or twice. I don’t think you can stop him all day. But Michigan State can’t let him be a difference-maker.
I like MSU’s chances of getting its pass game going a little more than Northwestern’s chances. Maybe Hunter Johnson will make a believer out of me, but right now if you choose either of MSU’s QB candidates you’ll find a guy who is more proven at this level than Johnson. And if Russo gets the call, he’s way more proven than Johnson.
Russo threw a lot of interceptions at Rutgers, but he also threw for 6,000 yards. If he has improved his decision-making, as was the goal from the beginning, this weekend could end up being all about Russo.
I think Russo has more quality, proven receivers to work with than Johnson.
If the Michigan State QB has time to throw, is complemented by a quality running game, if his receivers are gaining separation and finishing plays, and if the defense and special teams set the table well for the offense, then I think either quarterback is equipped to keep things stapled together at the most important position on the field.
Either Michigan State quarterback can do enough, as long as you don’t ask them to do it all.
In time, perhaps Thorne can develop into a game-rescue type of talent. Maybe Russo has that ability in him right now, if he gets more help from teammates than he had at Temple, and if some fine-tuning from Michigan State coaches have helped him take the next step as a quarterback in terms of decision-making.
We can be fairly certain that QB play this year will be improved over last year. That’s what you want at all positions in year two of a rebuilding program, and there is reason to believe that the Spartans will have that kind of improvement at almost every position.
Now can it get stapled together in time for a season-opener on the road against a revenge-seeking program that is known for limiting mistakes?
I think Michigan State is likely to be better than Northwestern by mid-October. I’m just not sure they’re ready to limit mistakes as effectively as is normally the case with Northwestern.
There are so many question marks. So much on the line. So early. So great. Who wins? I would lean toward the home team with the more proven track record of tidy football.
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