I hope that you enjoyed Part 1 that discussed the 2022 portal season- https://michiganstate.forums.rivals...une-2022-edition-part-1-portal-season.234474/
Now I’ll turn my attention to HS recruiting. Last time, I wrote on this topic was Early Signing day-(https://michiganstate.forums.rivals.com/threads/early-signing-day-recap-a-deep-dive.228020). At that time, I said- If we win at least 9 games next year, watch out because I think Tucker will have us in on even bigger targets. Fast forward 6 months and Mel Tucker has an unreal level of talent lined up to visit MSU in June. For context, I first began following recruiting during the days of the Tom Lemming report. I soon learned about Rivals and Scout. I would check out the sites from time to time, but I got hooked on recruiting after my sophomore year at MSU when I first read SpartanMag. Since that time, I’ve followed recruiting intently. With this perspective in my mind, I honestly have no words to describe what we are all witnessing right now at MSU. MSU is attracting uncharacteristic levels of talent that very few teams in the North have seen during the last 20-30 years (hint OSU Is the leader in the clubhouse on that front).
From my day job, I am someone that analyzes data and draws conclusions based on said data. To investigate some historically context for what’s happening, I pulled recruiting rankings for MSU from the last 20 years (please see below). I’ll add the disclaimer that I did not pull this data to rekindle debates about previous regimes. The focus of this post will be the here and now.
The Game done changed…. The Game just got more Fierce: The Wire
When I look at this, a few things stuck out to me from 2002-2022 (PS- 2023 was not included in the average):
I share these findings to emphasize that you go where the talent is. It is not a secret in football that high-level talent has been moving to the West Coast and South for a long time due to year-round football and increased level of play. I also think the elephant in the room that no one wants to admit is: the talent in Michigan and Illinois has been very overrated for the last 10 years. I wish that this wasn’t true, but to me this has played out time and again recently. At MSU, I think this is the first time that the talent shift in the US has been on full display in our current/future recruiting strategy.
We are going National, but what does this mean?
Thus far, I’ve provided some rationale for why Tucker may be doing what he’s doing. This next section is solely my fan perspective on what this means and where this thing is going. As a fan, do I know if he will be successful? NOPE!!! Am I here for it? HELL YES!!!
Since becoming a MSU fan when they upset Michigan in 2001 (true story- this led me to put MSU on my college radar as an out of state student), I’ve never been this excited about recruiting. Mel Tucker has a very specific plan that involves: elevating MSU to be a top brand in the country (not the Midwest), making MSU a top 10 social media brand, building/fostering relationships with Big-Time HS training programs like C4 sports in Oklahoma, recruiting kids from historical powerhouse programs like The Hun (NJ), St John Bosco (CA), Mater Dei (CA), St Joes (NJ), Buford HS (GA), recruiting the best players regardless of where they live, and filling recruiting needs according to specific metrics similar to how NFL teams draft.
This plan sounds great on paper, but it means nothing if you don’t win on the field. Well in 2021, we had a Doak Walker award winner, won a NY6 Bowl, and went 11-2. After Coach D left, I thought a best case scenario would be 8 wins by year 3 or 4. To get 11 wins in year 2 was a dream. We saw 11 wins lead us to a top 25 recruiting class. Tucker is now able to sell hope, NFL player development, and on-field results. Needless to say, the recruiting world has taken notice. Josh Pate summed this all up quite well in the voice over for a MSU spring hype video ().
I speak to quite a few folks that follow recruiting and we are constantly in shock that player X is on campus or has scheduled an official visit. MSU appears to have its stuff together from the coach to this staff to the AD to the donors down to the administration. What is happening at MSU has NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE. To my knowledge, the only 5 star recruits that have taken a legit look at MSU in the last 20-25 years were all local products (Charles Rogers, TJ Duckett, Will Gholston, Lawerence Thomas (at the time of his commitment), Malik McDowell). Seeing national top 10 guys like Jaden Wayne (Washington) and David Hicks Jr. (Texas) visiting MSU on their own dime is telling. These players aren’t from the Izzo Midwest footprint, and they want to be recruited by MSU. They are visiting because Tucker has peaked their interest based on both on-field success and what looks to be a chess-like move hiring Brandon Jordan as DE coach. The visits themselves matter greatly. MSU is a very visible in recruiting right now as evident by this schematic ()..
In total, MSU has the following uncommitted players visiting in June: 2 five stars, 23 4 stars, and 10 3 stars with more added daily. With our commits included, this means that we will have 20 Rivals top 250 players on campus this month. In the past, I would be happy if we could get 8 4-star kids to visit during one entire football season. Right now, MSU is able to do that in 1 recruiting weekend in June. This is videogame level recruiting prowess. Another cause for excitement is Tucker’s close rate from the 2022 class in June 2021: 50% (June 4-6), 43% (June 11-13), 70% (June 18-23), 25% (June 25-27). MSU closed an astonishing 44% of players that visited in the month of June 2021. If MSU closes even 30% of the insane talent that is visiting MSU in June 2022, the 2023 will be a special group. Despite what folks like EJ Holland think, Mel Tucker cares about HS recruiting. If we want to achieve the heights that he has planned, it is vital to capitalize in HS recruiting based on team success.
To close this out, I’ll leave you with some predictions based on MSU winning 8-9 games this year:
Now I’ll turn my attention to HS recruiting. Last time, I wrote on this topic was Early Signing day-(https://michiganstate.forums.rivals.com/threads/early-signing-day-recap-a-deep-dive.228020). At that time, I said- If we win at least 9 games next year, watch out because I think Tucker will have us in on even bigger targets. Fast forward 6 months and Mel Tucker has an unreal level of talent lined up to visit MSU in June. For context, I first began following recruiting during the days of the Tom Lemming report. I soon learned about Rivals and Scout. I would check out the sites from time to time, but I got hooked on recruiting after my sophomore year at MSU when I first read SpartanMag. Since that time, I’ve followed recruiting intently. With this perspective in my mind, I honestly have no words to describe what we are all witnessing right now at MSU. MSU is attracting uncharacteristic levels of talent that very few teams in the North have seen during the last 20-30 years (hint OSU Is the leader in the clubhouse on that front).
From my day job, I am someone that analyzes data and draws conclusions based on said data. To investigate some historically context for what’s happening, I pulled recruiting rankings for MSU from the last 20 years (please see below). I’ll add the disclaimer that I did not pull this data to rekindle debates about previous regimes. The focus of this post will be the here and now.
Year | Rivals Rank | # of 4 or 5 stars | Players from CA, Ga, TX, FL | Players from PA, OH, IL, MI |
2002 | 32 | 6 | 2 | 15 |
2003 | 65 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
2004 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 19 |
2005 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
2006 | 33 | 7 | 6 | 11 |
2007 | 42 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
2008 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
2009 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 19 |
2010 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 17 |
2011 | 31 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
2012 | 41 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
2013 | 40 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
2014 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 15 |
2015 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
2016 | 18 | 11 | 0 | 17 |
2017 | 33 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
2018 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
2019 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
2020 | 36 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
2021 | 45 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
2022 | 23 | 5 | 11 | 6 |
2023 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Average | 33 | 5 | 4 | 14 |
The Game done changed…. The Game just got more Fierce: The Wire
When I look at this, a few things stuck out to me from 2002-2022 (PS- 2023 was not included in the average):
- Historically, MSU has landed a top 35 recruiting class.
- MSU has only had double digit 4-star commitments twice (2009, 2016).
- MSU has had a top 25 class 6 times, and top 20 class 3 times.
- MSU has not hit the top 15 or better during this time.
- MSU’s recruiting has focused on the Izzo radius (e.g 6-8 hour radius around East Lansing). As a result, a majority of these classes consisted of players from Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and PA.
- Given the small n of 2 signed classes, the data suggests that Tucker is changing this last trend rather quickly. MSU is leaving the Midwest footprint and taking a more national approach by signing more players from Georgia, Texas, Florida and California.
I share these findings to emphasize that you go where the talent is. It is not a secret in football that high-level talent has been moving to the West Coast and South for a long time due to year-round football and increased level of play. I also think the elephant in the room that no one wants to admit is: the talent in Michigan and Illinois has been very overrated for the last 10 years. I wish that this wasn’t true, but to me this has played out time and again recently. At MSU, I think this is the first time that the talent shift in the US has been on full display in our current/future recruiting strategy.
We are going National, but what does this mean?
Thus far, I’ve provided some rationale for why Tucker may be doing what he’s doing. This next section is solely my fan perspective on what this means and where this thing is going. As a fan, do I know if he will be successful? NOPE!!! Am I here for it? HELL YES!!!
Since becoming a MSU fan when they upset Michigan in 2001 (true story- this led me to put MSU on my college radar as an out of state student), I’ve never been this excited about recruiting. Mel Tucker has a very specific plan that involves: elevating MSU to be a top brand in the country (not the Midwest), making MSU a top 10 social media brand, building/fostering relationships with Big-Time HS training programs like C4 sports in Oklahoma, recruiting kids from historical powerhouse programs like The Hun (NJ), St John Bosco (CA), Mater Dei (CA), St Joes (NJ), Buford HS (GA), recruiting the best players regardless of where they live, and filling recruiting needs according to specific metrics similar to how NFL teams draft.
This plan sounds great on paper, but it means nothing if you don’t win on the field. Well in 2021, we had a Doak Walker award winner, won a NY6 Bowl, and went 11-2. After Coach D left, I thought a best case scenario would be 8 wins by year 3 or 4. To get 11 wins in year 2 was a dream. We saw 11 wins lead us to a top 25 recruiting class. Tucker is now able to sell hope, NFL player development, and on-field results. Needless to say, the recruiting world has taken notice. Josh Pate summed this all up quite well in the voice over for a MSU spring hype video ().
I speak to quite a few folks that follow recruiting and we are constantly in shock that player X is on campus or has scheduled an official visit. MSU appears to have its stuff together from the coach to this staff to the AD to the donors down to the administration. What is happening at MSU has NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE. To my knowledge, the only 5 star recruits that have taken a legit look at MSU in the last 20-25 years were all local products (Charles Rogers, TJ Duckett, Will Gholston, Lawerence Thomas (at the time of his commitment), Malik McDowell). Seeing national top 10 guys like Jaden Wayne (Washington) and David Hicks Jr. (Texas) visiting MSU on their own dime is telling. These players aren’t from the Izzo Midwest footprint, and they want to be recruited by MSU. They are visiting because Tucker has peaked their interest based on both on-field success and what looks to be a chess-like move hiring Brandon Jordan as DE coach. The visits themselves matter greatly. MSU is a very visible in recruiting right now as evident by this schematic ()..
In total, MSU has the following uncommitted players visiting in June: 2 five stars, 23 4 stars, and 10 3 stars with more added daily. With our commits included, this means that we will have 20 Rivals top 250 players on campus this month. In the past, I would be happy if we could get 8 4-star kids to visit during one entire football season. Right now, MSU is able to do that in 1 recruiting weekend in June. This is videogame level recruiting prowess. Another cause for excitement is Tucker’s close rate from the 2022 class in June 2021: 50% (June 4-6), 43% (June 11-13), 70% (June 18-23), 25% (June 25-27). MSU closed an astonishing 44% of players that visited in the month of June 2021. If MSU closes even 30% of the insane talent that is visiting MSU in June 2022, the 2023 will be a special group. Despite what folks like EJ Holland think, Mel Tucker cares about HS recruiting. If we want to achieve the heights that he has planned, it is vital to capitalize in HS recruiting based on team success.
To close this out, I’ll leave you with some predictions based on MSU winning 8-9 games this year:
- MSU will not sign a 5 star prospect, but will receive a fall official visit from at least one.
- By NSD, MSU’s close rate from June 2022 will be 30-33%.
- MSU will sign < 6 players from MI, PA, OH, and IL combined.
- MSU will not sign a single player from Ohio.
- I hope to be wrong here, but MSU will only sign one more player from the state of Michigan. When thinking back to December 2021, this is a shocking development considering many were eyeing Dante Moore, Cole Cabana, Amare Snowden, Dylan Senda and others as potential key pieces in this class.
- MSU will sign 14 or more players from CA, TX, FL, and GA combined for an all-time high in the Rivals era.
- For the first time ever, MSU will sign double digit 4-star recruits in back to back years.
- During next portal season, MSU will sign 5-6 portal players solely at positions of need (OL, S, etc).
- MSU will sign a 5 star prospect in the 2024 class
- In the 2024 class, MSU will sign no more than 4 players from the state of MI.
