TEN THOUGHTS: THE REAL REASON WHY MSU HAS LOST TWELVE BASKETBALL GAMES
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1. FREE THROW DIFFERENTIAL: MSU is putting guys on the free throw line and not getting to the free line, and it's not just free attempts—a look at MADE Free Throws:
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OPPONENTS: 197-256 (77%)
MSU: 122-177 (68.9%)
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IMAGINE: Opponents have MADE SEVENTY-FIVE MORE free throws than MSU in just 12 losses.
That is 6.3 more points per game just from the free-throw line.
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Opponents are going to the line 21.3 times per game in MSU losses.
MSU is getting to the FT line 14.8 times per game, and MSU loses.
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1. JMU: (21-28) MSU (23-37) +2 (Still, you put JMU on the line 28 times)
2. DUKE: (24-30) MSU (7-12) (MINUS -17)
3. ARIZONA (15-20) MSU (11-14) (MINUS -4)
4. WISCONSIN (14-14) MSU (5-7) (MINUS -9)
5. NEBRASKA (13-15) MSU (8-17) (MINUS -5)
6. NORTHWESTERN (15-18) MSU (15-22) (EVEN 0)
7. ILLINOIS: (18-22) MSU (5-7) (MINUS -13)
8. WISCONSIN (14-19) MSU (10-12) (MINUS -4)
9. MINNESOTA (12-19) MSU (7-17) (MINUS -5)
10. IOWA (18-23) MSU (7-14) (MINUS -11)
11. OHIO STATE (13-18) MSU (9-11) (MINUS -4)
12. PURDUE (20-30) MSU (15-17) MINUS -5)
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GAME by GAME REASONS MSU LOST:
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1. JAMES MADISON: MSU 1 for 20 from 3-point land. JMU hit 8-29 from three-point land, a 21-point swing. Walker misses six free throws. MSU's Shooting guards: Walker, Akins, and Hollomon shoot 15 of 39 (38.5)% and 1-11 from 3-point land.
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2. DUKE hits 24-30 from the Free Throw line, and MSU makes only seven free throws.
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3. ARIZONA +10 points in the paint (42-32) and +4 in made free throws.
Shooting guards: Walker/Akins/Hollomon's overall Shooting is 13-34 (38.2%)
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4. WISCONSIN: Second-chance points are 19 to 8 for the Badgers (+11)
Wisconsin makes 14 FTs to MSU's five, for a +nine points for the Badgers.
Shooting guards: Walker/Akins/Hollomon's overall Shooting is 12-31 (38.7%)
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5. NEBRASKA: Nebraska +5 in free throws made (13-8). Nebraska +2 in three-pointers made: 10-8 (+6-pointers). Shooting guards: Walker/Akins/
Hollomon 12-30 (40%) from the field.
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6. NORTHWESTERN: The Wildcats made 32 of 59 field goals as defense disappeared (+10 FGs made), and NU has 21 points off turnovers.
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7. ILLINOIS: Illinois has +10 points in the paint. Shooting guards: Walker/Akins/Hollomon: 13-30 (43.3) 4 of 15 from 3-point land (26.7%).
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8. WISCONSIN: The Badgers are +4 in made free throws. Plus 3 in 3-points (+9 points), and 17-8 (+8) in 2nd chance points. Shooting guards
Walker/Akins/Hollomon a woeful 8-25 (32%) and 2-7 from 3-point land 28.6%.
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9. MINNESOTA: The Gophers are +2 in 3-pointers (+6 points), +5 in free throws made, and shooting guards Walker/Akins/Hollomon 15-32 from the field overall (46.9%).
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10. IOWA: The Hawkeyes had +11 in free throws made, +12 points in paint,
and +7 off turnovers. Shooting guards Walker/Akins/Hollomon were 11-27
overall. (40.7%)
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11. OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes were +4 in free throws and +8 (14-6) in second-chance points. Shooting guards Walker/Akins/Hollomon were 6 of 27 shots (22%) and 1 of 8 from 3-point land (13%)
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12. PURDUE: The Hawkeyes had +5 free throws (+5 points) and +1 (3-pointers) +3 points, and the officiating could have been better. Walker
5-15, and AJ (3-13) had off-shooting nights.
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POOR SHOOTING GUARDS: Overall, shooting from the field, Tyson Walker shot 42.5%, Jayden Akins shot 39.4%, and Tre Hollomon shot 31.1%. No, this is NOT a 3-point percentage, but from the field, which is overall.
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BIG MEN IN TWELVE LOSSES: The big men hit 52-101 shots in 12 losses, which is a solid 51.4%. But as an entire group, they take only 8.4 shots per game. They also combined for an average of 12.5 rebounds per game. Each player averages 13.2 minutes a game. So, as a group, they are less involved offensively--- either because of talent or opportunities and need better rebounding. Cooper and Sissoko are good defenders and rebounders, but Kohler, Carr, and Booker are better offensively. So far, there has yet to be a complete big man from this group.
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1. CARSON COOPER: 11-22 (50%) FT (12-22) 54.5%, 52 Rebounds (4.3) 16.1 minutes per game. (12 games)
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2. MADY SISSOKO: 11-23 (47.8%) FT (5-6) 83.3%, 57 Rebounds (4.8)
16.0 minutes per game (12 games)
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3. JAXSON KOHLER: 6-14 (42.9%) FT (0-2), 7 Rebounds (1.0)
9.3 Minutes per game (7 games)
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4. COEN CARR: 15-24 (62.5%) FT (7-15) 46.7%, 25 Rebounds (2.1)
12.4 minutes per game (12 games)
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5. XAVIER BOOKER: 9-18 (50%) FT (7-9) 77.7%, 9 Rebounds (1.3)
8.3 minutes per game (7 Games)
SHOOTING GUARDS: Akins, Hollomon, and Walker struggled statistically during the 12 losses. While they shot decent from 3-point range, OVERALL SHOOTING PERCENTAGES IN 12 losses: Hollomon 31.1%, Akins 39.4%, and Walker 42.5%- this includes all two-point shots and shots in the paint or layups. All three played shaky defense. Against Purdue, Walker scored 2 points in the second half and shot five for 15. But every time he misses a shot, we hear cries of a groin injury. But was Walker injured during the other 11 losses? I guess the guy who has been feeding him all year caused him to shoot 5 for 15, and that's why he only scored 2 points in the second half. Walker missed six FTs vs. JMU that would have put the game away, missed a critical free throw vs OSU, making that more difficult last-second shot, and went 5 for 15 vs Purdue after Matt Painter decided to "Bottle up Hoggard" and let outside shooters bomb away. Walker was supposed to be the "Superstar." Izzo called Akins his "best shooter" and Hollomon the new guy ready to splash. In 12 losses, these guys hit a WOEFUL combined 117 of 306 shots or 38.2%.
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POINT GUARD: During the first 11 losses, AJ was 38% shooting from 3-point land, the BEST on the team. He also had 51 assists, only 16 turnovers, a 3.2-1 ratio, and played defense. Other shooting percentages from 3-point land in 11 losses: Hall (37%), Walker (35.2%), Akins (35.2 %), and Hollomon (29.4%) (Not bad, except Hollomon). HOWEVER, overall shooting percentages for ALL shots in those 11 losses included (Walker 43.2), Akins (39.0), and Hollomon (28.9%) were horrific. Apparently, AJ is not the only one of many guys not finishing around the rim.
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AJ has been the most consistent player this year, though there is no question there has been a problem with layups and some mid-range shots lately. Sure, against Purdue, AJ started 0 for seven, but he made 3 of his last six; he had four assists, just one turnover, three rebounds, and three steals and was defended by Lance Jones and, at times, by Braden Smith, two of the best defensive guards in the nation. And never mind trying to attack the rim vs. Zach Edey. MSU is 9th in the country in assist-turnover ratio
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AJ is always the scapegoat, and Walker is always the protected victim. Had the Spartans beat writers who cover basketball been more intelligent, they would have quoted Matt Painter, who said they wanted to stop Hoggard by bottling up the middle and seeing if the shooters could hit from the outside, aka Walker. Walker had 2 points in the second half, but you won't hear much about it. You won't hear how Walker missed critical free throws vs. JMU or Ohio State, how Akins and Walker combined for a 6-24 shooting night vs. the Buckeyes, or how the Walker-Akins-Hollomon trio went cold in 12 losses.
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Coaches remember what AJ did against USC, Marquette, and K-State by attacking the rim, and they are taking that away. Minnesota doubled-teamed Malik Hall and ran two people at AJ to make him give up the ball. When Iowa went on a 15-1 run, Hoggard was hardly on the floor for that span. Against UM, Hoggard got two fouls, and UM promptly grabbed six steals and forced seven MSU turnovers.
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The truth is everyone is struggling, the coaches, the assistants, the players. And the truth is Hoggard only gets a little help. He is not a perimeter shooter per se; he is a facilitator who plays excellent defense. He needed a Xavier Tillman or a Jaren Jackson to hold down the middle or a consistent perimeter shooter he could count on, and it was never there.
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Let's go back in time. AJ had a lot of baby fat when he came in as a freshman and had to lose weight, and he did. He could hardly make a free throw; his first two years were 60% and 63%, but in the last two years, he was over 80%, leading the team in FT%. He also could not shoot from three-point land; in his first year, he was 16.7%, then 21.9%, then 32.3%, and now 33.8 his senior year. Izzo is also losing a great assist man near the top of MSU records in assist-turnover ratio, assist percentage, and all-time assists who can play defense.
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Anyway, according to my sources, Hoggard likely won't be back. Izzo and AJ are like oil and water, but Izzo better be ready. Don't worry; Izzo called Jeremy Fears the next Mateen Cleaves; yeah, sure he is.
COACHING: Izzo says he still remembers how to coach, but he evaluated and assembled this group. We have defensive-minded bigs (Cooper, Sissoko) and offensive-minded (Kohler and Booker), but not one complete big. They can't make free throws as a team, but more importantly, MSU fouled enough to have opponents MAKE 6.3 MORE FTs per game in 12 losses. That is not attempted, but MADE free throws. Walker-Akins-Hollomon, the supposed best shooters besides Hall, hit 38.2 percent for ALL shots, including layups, in 12 losses. And AJ missed some timely layups. But AJ and Sissoko are the least of this team's problems. Mady's hands are not gifted offensively, but he does play defense and rebound and only played 16 minutes per game. AJ was never a perimeter shooter in prep school; his forte was passing and defense, and that's why Walker, Akins, and Hollomon are on the team. Why are they not making shots? And why are opponents dominating on the free-throw line? Why are there so many second-chance points and points in the paint at the worst time? Why can't this team box out and rebound effectively?
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CONCLUSION
1) In 11 of 12 losses, the free-throw differential hurt MSU. In many losses, the opposition gets to the line much more than MSU and MADE 6.3 per game than MSU, not attempted, MADE. Imagine spotting the other team 6.3 points before the game begins.
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2) MSU shot 68.9% from the free-throw line in 12 losses. It is No.253 in the country in made free throws.
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3) Points in the paint and second-chance points are killing MSU. MSU is No.240 in rebounds, No.223 in offensive bounds, and No. 186 in rebound margin. Rebounding is where Izzo used to make a living.
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4) Three-point shooting, both for and against, sometimes hurt MSU. It's not their overall percentage, but in games they have lost.
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5) Walker was supposed to be the "Superstar." Izzo called Akins his "best shooter" and Hollomon the new guy ready to splash. In 12 losses, these guys hit a WOEFUL 117 of 306 shots or overall 38.2% FG%.
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6) Coaching and evaluation could have been better.
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7) Yeah, and AJ missed some layups.
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1. FREE THROW DIFFERENTIAL: MSU is putting guys on the free throw line and not getting to the free line, and it's not just free attempts—a look at MADE Free Throws:
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OPPONENTS: 197-256 (77%)
MSU: 122-177 (68.9%)
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IMAGINE: Opponents have MADE SEVENTY-FIVE MORE free throws than MSU in just 12 losses.
That is 6.3 more points per game just from the free-throw line.
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Opponents are going to the line 21.3 times per game in MSU losses.
MSU is getting to the FT line 14.8 times per game, and MSU loses.
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1. JMU: (21-28) MSU (23-37) +2 (Still, you put JMU on the line 28 times)
2. DUKE: (24-30) MSU (7-12) (MINUS -17)
3. ARIZONA (15-20) MSU (11-14) (MINUS -4)
4. WISCONSIN (14-14) MSU (5-7) (MINUS -9)
5. NEBRASKA (13-15) MSU (8-17) (MINUS -5)
6. NORTHWESTERN (15-18) MSU (15-22) (EVEN 0)
7. ILLINOIS: (18-22) MSU (5-7) (MINUS -13)
8. WISCONSIN (14-19) MSU (10-12) (MINUS -4)
9. MINNESOTA (12-19) MSU (7-17) (MINUS -5)
10. IOWA (18-23) MSU (7-14) (MINUS -11)
11. OHIO STATE (13-18) MSU (9-11) (MINUS -4)
12. PURDUE (20-30) MSU (15-17) MINUS -5)
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GAME by GAME REASONS MSU LOST:
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1. JAMES MADISON: MSU 1 for 20 from 3-point land. JMU hit 8-29 from three-point land, a 21-point swing. Walker misses six free throws. MSU's Shooting guards: Walker, Akins, and Hollomon shoot 15 of 39 (38.5)% and 1-11 from 3-point land.
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2. DUKE hits 24-30 from the Free Throw line, and MSU makes only seven free throws.
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3. ARIZONA +10 points in the paint (42-32) and +4 in made free throws.
Shooting guards: Walker/Akins/Hollomon's overall Shooting is 13-34 (38.2%)
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4. WISCONSIN: Second-chance points are 19 to 8 for the Badgers (+11)
Wisconsin makes 14 FTs to MSU's five, for a +nine points for the Badgers.
Shooting guards: Walker/Akins/Hollomon's overall Shooting is 12-31 (38.7%)
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5. NEBRASKA: Nebraska +5 in free throws made (13-8). Nebraska +2 in three-pointers made: 10-8 (+6-pointers). Shooting guards: Walker/Akins/
Hollomon 12-30 (40%) from the field.
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6. NORTHWESTERN: The Wildcats made 32 of 59 field goals as defense disappeared (+10 FGs made), and NU has 21 points off turnovers.
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7. ILLINOIS: Illinois has +10 points in the paint. Shooting guards: Walker/Akins/Hollomon: 13-30 (43.3) 4 of 15 from 3-point land (26.7%).
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8. WISCONSIN: The Badgers are +4 in made free throws. Plus 3 in 3-points (+9 points), and 17-8 (+8) in 2nd chance points. Shooting guards
Walker/Akins/Hollomon a woeful 8-25 (32%) and 2-7 from 3-point land 28.6%.
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9. MINNESOTA: The Gophers are +2 in 3-pointers (+6 points), +5 in free throws made, and shooting guards Walker/Akins/Hollomon 15-32 from the field overall (46.9%).
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10. IOWA: The Hawkeyes had +11 in free throws made, +12 points in paint,
and +7 off turnovers. Shooting guards Walker/Akins/Hollomon were 11-27
overall. (40.7%)
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11. OHIO STATE: The Buckeyes were +4 in free throws and +8 (14-6) in second-chance points. Shooting guards Walker/Akins/Hollomon were 6 of 27 shots (22%) and 1 of 8 from 3-point land (13%)
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12. PURDUE: The Hawkeyes had +5 free throws (+5 points) and +1 (3-pointers) +3 points, and the officiating could have been better. Walker
5-15, and AJ (3-13) had off-shooting nights.
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POOR SHOOTING GUARDS: Overall, shooting from the field, Tyson Walker shot 42.5%, Jayden Akins shot 39.4%, and Tre Hollomon shot 31.1%. No, this is NOT a 3-point percentage, but from the field, which is overall.
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BIG MEN IN TWELVE LOSSES: The big men hit 52-101 shots in 12 losses, which is a solid 51.4%. But as an entire group, they take only 8.4 shots per game. They also combined for an average of 12.5 rebounds per game. Each player averages 13.2 minutes a game. So, as a group, they are less involved offensively--- either because of talent or opportunities and need better rebounding. Cooper and Sissoko are good defenders and rebounders, but Kohler, Carr, and Booker are better offensively. So far, there has yet to be a complete big man from this group.
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1. CARSON COOPER: 11-22 (50%) FT (12-22) 54.5%, 52 Rebounds (4.3) 16.1 minutes per game. (12 games)
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2. MADY SISSOKO: 11-23 (47.8%) FT (5-6) 83.3%, 57 Rebounds (4.8)
16.0 minutes per game (12 games)
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3. JAXSON KOHLER: 6-14 (42.9%) FT (0-2), 7 Rebounds (1.0)
9.3 Minutes per game (7 games)
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4. COEN CARR: 15-24 (62.5%) FT (7-15) 46.7%, 25 Rebounds (2.1)
12.4 minutes per game (12 games)
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5. XAVIER BOOKER: 9-18 (50%) FT (7-9) 77.7%, 9 Rebounds (1.3)
8.3 minutes per game (7 Games)
SHOOTING GUARDS: Akins, Hollomon, and Walker struggled statistically during the 12 losses. While they shot decent from 3-point range, OVERALL SHOOTING PERCENTAGES IN 12 losses: Hollomon 31.1%, Akins 39.4%, and Walker 42.5%- this includes all two-point shots and shots in the paint or layups. All three played shaky defense. Against Purdue, Walker scored 2 points in the second half and shot five for 15. But every time he misses a shot, we hear cries of a groin injury. But was Walker injured during the other 11 losses? I guess the guy who has been feeding him all year caused him to shoot 5 for 15, and that's why he only scored 2 points in the second half. Walker missed six FTs vs. JMU that would have put the game away, missed a critical free throw vs OSU, making that more difficult last-second shot, and went 5 for 15 vs Purdue after Matt Painter decided to "Bottle up Hoggard" and let outside shooters bomb away. Walker was supposed to be the "Superstar." Izzo called Akins his "best shooter" and Hollomon the new guy ready to splash. In 12 losses, these guys hit a WOEFUL combined 117 of 306 shots or 38.2%.
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POINT GUARD: During the first 11 losses, AJ was 38% shooting from 3-point land, the BEST on the team. He also had 51 assists, only 16 turnovers, a 3.2-1 ratio, and played defense. Other shooting percentages from 3-point land in 11 losses: Hall (37%), Walker (35.2%), Akins (35.2 %), and Hollomon (29.4%) (Not bad, except Hollomon). HOWEVER, overall shooting percentages for ALL shots in those 11 losses included (Walker 43.2), Akins (39.0), and Hollomon (28.9%) were horrific. Apparently, AJ is not the only one of many guys not finishing around the rim.
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AJ has been the most consistent player this year, though there is no question there has been a problem with layups and some mid-range shots lately. Sure, against Purdue, AJ started 0 for seven, but he made 3 of his last six; he had four assists, just one turnover, three rebounds, and three steals and was defended by Lance Jones and, at times, by Braden Smith, two of the best defensive guards in the nation. And never mind trying to attack the rim vs. Zach Edey. MSU is 9th in the country in assist-turnover ratio
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AJ is always the scapegoat, and Walker is always the protected victim. Had the Spartans beat writers who cover basketball been more intelligent, they would have quoted Matt Painter, who said they wanted to stop Hoggard by bottling up the middle and seeing if the shooters could hit from the outside, aka Walker. Walker had 2 points in the second half, but you won't hear much about it. You won't hear how Walker missed critical free throws vs. JMU or Ohio State, how Akins and Walker combined for a 6-24 shooting night vs. the Buckeyes, or how the Walker-Akins-Hollomon trio went cold in 12 losses.
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Coaches remember what AJ did against USC, Marquette, and K-State by attacking the rim, and they are taking that away. Minnesota doubled-teamed Malik Hall and ran two people at AJ to make him give up the ball. When Iowa went on a 15-1 run, Hoggard was hardly on the floor for that span. Against UM, Hoggard got two fouls, and UM promptly grabbed six steals and forced seven MSU turnovers.
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The truth is everyone is struggling, the coaches, the assistants, the players. And the truth is Hoggard only gets a little help. He is not a perimeter shooter per se; he is a facilitator who plays excellent defense. He needed a Xavier Tillman or a Jaren Jackson to hold down the middle or a consistent perimeter shooter he could count on, and it was never there.
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Let's go back in time. AJ had a lot of baby fat when he came in as a freshman and had to lose weight, and he did. He could hardly make a free throw; his first two years were 60% and 63%, but in the last two years, he was over 80%, leading the team in FT%. He also could not shoot from three-point land; in his first year, he was 16.7%, then 21.9%, then 32.3%, and now 33.8 his senior year. Izzo is also losing a great assist man near the top of MSU records in assist-turnover ratio, assist percentage, and all-time assists who can play defense.
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Anyway, according to my sources, Hoggard likely won't be back. Izzo and AJ are like oil and water, but Izzo better be ready. Don't worry; Izzo called Jeremy Fears the next Mateen Cleaves; yeah, sure he is.
COACHING: Izzo says he still remembers how to coach, but he evaluated and assembled this group. We have defensive-minded bigs (Cooper, Sissoko) and offensive-minded (Kohler and Booker), but not one complete big. They can't make free throws as a team, but more importantly, MSU fouled enough to have opponents MAKE 6.3 MORE FTs per game in 12 losses. That is not attempted, but MADE free throws. Walker-Akins-Hollomon, the supposed best shooters besides Hall, hit 38.2 percent for ALL shots, including layups, in 12 losses. And AJ missed some timely layups. But AJ and Sissoko are the least of this team's problems. Mady's hands are not gifted offensively, but he does play defense and rebound and only played 16 minutes per game. AJ was never a perimeter shooter in prep school; his forte was passing and defense, and that's why Walker, Akins, and Hollomon are on the team. Why are they not making shots? And why are opponents dominating on the free-throw line? Why are there so many second-chance points and points in the paint at the worst time? Why can't this team box out and rebound effectively?
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CONCLUSION
1) In 11 of 12 losses, the free-throw differential hurt MSU. In many losses, the opposition gets to the line much more than MSU and MADE 6.3 per game than MSU, not attempted, MADE. Imagine spotting the other team 6.3 points before the game begins.
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2) MSU shot 68.9% from the free-throw line in 12 losses. It is No.253 in the country in made free throws.
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3) Points in the paint and second-chance points are killing MSU. MSU is No.240 in rebounds, No.223 in offensive bounds, and No. 186 in rebound margin. Rebounding is where Izzo used to make a living.
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4) Three-point shooting, both for and against, sometimes hurt MSU. It's not their overall percentage, but in games they have lost.
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5) Walker was supposed to be the "Superstar." Izzo called Akins his "best shooter" and Hollomon the new guy ready to splash. In 12 losses, these guys hit a WOEFUL 117 of 306 shots or overall 38.2% FG%.
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6) Coaching and evaluation could have been better.
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7) Yeah, and AJ missed some layups.
