PRE-SNAP READ: Michigan State vs Washington
By Jim Comparoni
Publisher, SpartanMag.com
Seattle - Mel Tucker always talks about having a sense of urgency and attention to detail. This week, he ratcheted those things up a few more notches.
Watching Washington’s game film, and the difficult challenge that QB Michael Pennix Jr. will present, is requiring Michigan State’s operation to hit mid-season form right now if the Spartans want to come back from Seattle with a 3-0 record.
Washington is 2-0 after a pair of blowout victories over a decent mid-major in Kent State and a weak FCS team in Portland State. They have looked better than Michigan State on offense, but worse than Michigan State on defense.
If Michigan State is truly a Top 10 team, the Spartans should be able to find a way to win this game, maybe with increasing muscle and flair. But anything less than a Top 25 level performance, such as the way the Spartans played in the first two games of the season, will land Michigan State in trouble in this game.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
Washington had one of the worst offenses in the country last year, averaging fewer than 22 points per game. They were atrocious. They fired their head coach, changed the scheme, welcomed in a host of transfers, including QB Pennix.
At this time last year, in this space, I wrote that little-known QB Bailey Zappie, of Western Kentucky, looked like an NFL QB to my untrained eye, the type of guy a team like the Detroit Lions should take in the late rounds if he were still available.
Zappie came out of nowhere to become a Fourth Round draft pick of the New England Patriots.
A few weeks later, I said little-known former walk-on QB Aidan O’Connell of Purdue looked like an NFL QB to my untrained eye.
O’Connell came out of nowhere to become one of the top QB prospects for the 2023 Draft.
Michael Pennix isn’t coming out of nowhere. He made a name for himself at Indiana, despite a rash of injuries.
Michigan State fans remember him from the day he completed 20 straight passes in a losing effort at Spartan Stadium in 2019. College football fans remember him diving for the pylon for a successful 2-point conversion in beating Penn State in 2020 for an Indiana team which became a surprise Top 20 unit.
He was pretty good then. Kind of streaky. Talented.
He is better now.
I realize he played against two week opponents in the first two games of this season, and he has yet, in his career, to really light it up against a quality opponent. But that time is coming.
When I heard he had transferred to Washington, I was like, ‘Okay, no big deal.’ But after watching him play in the first two games, I understand Tucker’s ratcheted up urgency and attention to detail this week. Pennix looks like an NFL quarterback to me, if he can stay healthy.
The Pennix that I’m seeing right now, I’d like to see what he would do with Ohio State’s receivers and run game, and defense. I am starting to think he would be just as effective as CJ Stroud, but without as much of the QB run threat (only because Pennix has to be careful with that stuff, with his history of injuries).
He has arm strength, quick release, good accuracy with all of the throws, reads the whole feel and makes quick decisions. That was against the middling defenses of the first two weeks, but still, there are some things that translate.
If he plays the way he has been playing and Payton Thorne plays the way he has been playing, then Washington will have an edge at the QB position in this game, perhaps a big edge. The home team with a big edge at QB? Add those two things together and you can understand why Vegas has moved Washington to a 3-point favorite.
“He is decisive,” said Fox college football commentator Petros Papadakis during Washington’s 45-20 victory over Kent State in week one. “I knew he was a strong player. I did not know he would be this efficient and look that comfortable in Deboer’s offense.”
I agree.
“There is nowhere that Pennix can’t and won’t throw the ball,” Papadakis said. “He knows exactly where he wants to go with the ball. Smooth. Good release, gets that ball out perfectly.”
There are some Michigan State fans who read Pre-Snap Read who get angry when I’m complimentary of an opponent. I don’t understand that psychology. Would you rather I berate the opponent, fluff up the home team and wave pom-pons and tell you there is no way this upstart Washington team can possibly hang with your beloved Spartans?
I realize that’s only a small percentage of the readers, but if you can’t handle it, go ahead and stop reading now.
Washington looks to me like an all-around quality of team somewhere between Maryland and Purdue. If Washington beats Michigan State and does it convincingly, then obviously my opinion of the Huskies would elevate Washington somewhere between Purdue and Penn State. That’s a possibility.
I think MSU’s pass defense will go from being bad last year to pretty good this year. I still think that, with the real tests pending.
The tests are coming a week earlier than I would have expected. Washington is going to cut Michigan State through the air.
I think you can have a “pretty good” pass defense and still give up 310-plus yards to good quarterbacks and good passing attacks. Washington has a better-than-good quarterback and a good passing attack.
In macro terms, I would say Wisconsin is a Grade B+ offense vs what I would call a Michigan State Grade B- defense.
I would say Michigan State is a grade B-minus offense, going against a Grade C+ Washington defense.
How does that shake out?
Maybe the Michigan State defense will prove to be better than a B- defense. We’ll learn as we go. If Michigan State holds Pennix below 280 yards passing, I would have to see how it was done but I would think that would be worthy of an upgrade from B- to a B defense. Yes, I would boost MSU’s defensive grade for the season if the Spartans can “hold” Pennix to 280 yards passing.
Before we get into the task of stopping or containing Pennix and his receivers, let’s compare the other areas of Washington’s team to the team you know well.
APPLES TO APPLES
* Michigan State has a good receiving corps. I would say Washington’s is just as good, maybe even a tad better.
The expectation is that Jayden Reed will play. Michigan State needs him to play. Payton Thorne needs his huckleberry, and the Michigan State return units need the explosiveness that Reed can provide.
This game could turn on punt return or kick return. Washington has a very good returner as well, in Michigan transfer Giles Jackson.
* At the tight end position, Washington has better blockers but Michigan State has better receivers.
* MSU’s running backs are better than Washington’s.
* I would give Michigan State’s offensive line the edge over Washington’s. Washington’s o-line is solid, competent and capable, but I thought MSU’s offensive line was one of the more pleasant surprises of the first two weeks. I’m not saying the Michigan State o-line was great, but I liked the way they handled their business with inside zone runs, and I like the way they are working together in pass protection. So far, so good (against mid-major competition).
* Washington’s defensive line interior is good. If Jacob Slade is healthy and right, and so is Simeon Barrow, I give Michigan State the edge here. Both teams have good depth inside.
* Washington’s defensive ends are good. I give Michigan State the edge with Jacoby Windmon and his surprising play-making ability. But Washington’s starting two defensive ends (and Washington’s first defensive end off the bench) have been better than MSU’s other starting defensive end, Jeff Pietrowski.
* UW’s back seven isn’t nearly as hard-hitting and tough as MSU’s. Whereas Michigan State hit harder and tougher as the WMU game progressed, UW’s back seven became a little more arm-tackleish in the second half against KSU.
In the first two games, Washington has not tackled well at linebacker or in the secondary. In fact, their defensive linemen have allowed a couple of sacks to slip away, too.
Meanwhile, Michigan State’s defense has become a hard-hitting group. They know where to be, they have big frames and good quickness, and they have been trained to arrive with evil intentions. That part of the Mel Tucker program is reaching maturity, even if all of the players don’t look and run exactly the way he wants them to look and run. But they’re pretty good for now. And the hard-hitting nature of MSU’s defense could be the intangible component that leads Michigan State out of this thing with a victory.
The hard-hitting defense has created turnovers, and has made teams want to quit. Akron quit against Michigan State. I don’t think Washington will quit, but it’s going to be interesting to see if Michigan State can land some of the blows on Washington receivers that it landed on Akron receivers, and what the response and reaction will be.
On the negative side, those Washington receivers are going to get fed the ball. Pennix will get it to them on time and on target. He will roll up numbers and they will roll up reception numbers.
Michigan State has done a good job of tackling receivers on the spot and limiting yards after the catch. Michigan State has been able to do this, largely, because it has mostly played zone defense. It’s easier to limit yards after the catch when playing zone than man-to-man. But receivers usually have an easier time getting open against zone. So there’s a cost/benefit analysis to which coverage you play. The goal is to play both extremely well, hit hard in zone, and cover tightly in man, mix them up and delay the QB’s ability to make reads. Michigan State is working toward that end.
* Getting back to the apples: MSU’s inside linebackers are better than Washington’s by a healthy margin.
* MSU’s slot (nickel) linebacker is different than Washington’s. I haven’t decided which team I think is better off in this area. Chester Kimbrough has been good in coverage and productive as a pass rusher. His tackling has been decent.
Washington uses a bigger guy in the slot, 6-foot-3, 221-pound junior Dominique Hampton.
Hampton survives against the pass, and plays the run better than Kimbrough.
Michigan State likes to try to establish the run. Washington’s use of a big guy at slot linebacker is more of a Midwestern approach than a West Coast approach. But it matches up well against a team that wants to run the ball.
I think Michigan State will establish the run and have success on the ground due to some occasional slippage elsewhere for Washington, but this bigger guy Hampton at nickel gives Washington a decent face card in trying to stop the run. He isn’t the MAIN element in stopping the run, but he’s a plus for Washington in run defense.
* MSU’s cornerbacks are better than Washington’s, especially after Washington’s best cornerback, Jordan Perryman, went down with a non-contact injury late in the Kent State game.
* MSU’s safeties are better than Washington’s, even with Xavier Henderson expected to be out. Kendell Brooks has been a pleasant surprise, and is a big piece of MSU’s hard-hitting identity.
With Angelo Grose, so far, so good. He has improved his deep ball judgement and ability to make plays on the ball.
MSU’s safeties are much better tacklers than Washington’s. Whether or not Michigan State can get out of this game without its safeties being exposed in coverage is one of the biggest x-factors of this game.
Brooks and Grose are about to be tested by extreme heat from Pennix and his deep cast of receivers. Brooks and Grose have been okay so far, but our outlook on them could change based on how Saturday unfolds.
I honestly am not sure how the Washington pass game vs Michigan State safeties (and pass defense in general) will end up. I know how part of it will go. There will parts and portions of the game in which Washington carves up MSU’s pass defense, churns out first downs, and scores points.
Michigan State will try to be tough on defense in the red zone. That was a strength for Michigan State last year.
Washington has used some effective, quirky little pass routes to finish in the red zone this year. I’m sure they have more. You might think you can stiffen up in the red zone and force field goals, but right about the time you think you can do that, Washington changes the questions with some quirky little pass routes that make it just that much harder to track them.
I think Washington will score points on Michigan State through the air. I think they will score plenty. What I don’t know is whether they will be able to get the big play at the key junctures, as I think there’s a good chance this game will be a Pac 12 type of shootout. Michigan State might need to score 30 to win.
* At QB, I’m expecting Washington to have the edge.
APPLES TO ORANGES
Now in terms of football matchups, we all know that MSU’s offensive line does not play against Washington’s offensive line.
Washington’s offensive line, of course, plays against MSU’s defensive front.
So how do these key matchups look?
Well, the age old truism of football is that nothing can stop a quality passing attack better than a quality pass rush.
Michigan State has had a quality pass rush thus far this season, led by Windmon. Michigan State ranks No. 1 in the nation in sacks.
Can Michigan State maintain heat and pressure this week against a better offensive front?
This is one of the key, key questions about this game. Can the Michigan State pass rush affect Pennix?
It had better. If it doesn’t, if Pennix consistently has time to throw, then he’ll get deep into the 300s in passing yardage.
KEYS TO THE GAME
Any fool in any game can say the keys to this game are:
1. Getting heat on the opposing QB.
2. Establishing the run.
3. Getting quality play from QB Payton Thorne.
Duh.
What about the micro analysis within those keys to the game? That’s where we try to make the Pre-Snap Read worth reading.
I. MSU’S PASS RUSH VS UW PASS PROTECTION:
Washington’s offensive tackles looks solid to me. Their entire starting offensive line, individually and collectively, looks solid to me.
During SpartanMag LIVE!, one of our valued posters at SpartanMag.com, Mr. Strategic, mentioned that he felt the center position was a weakness for Washington.
That made me pause because Mr. Strategic really knows offensive line play.
I had studied the first half of the Washington vs Kent State game at that point, but I hadn’t watched the second half.
On the flight to Seattle, I studied the second half and I think I saw what Mr. Strategic saw.
I suspect that he saw No. 78 playing center rather than No. 74.
No. 74 is their starter. Luciano is his name. He’s solid, and nicely athletic.
No. 78 came off the bench to start the second half. He was not solid. The Kent State nose guard knocked him back when two-gapping several times.
I didn’t ask Mr. Strategic, but I think that must have been what he saw when watching the game live, and maybe hadn’t watched the first half as closely.
Anyway, I respect what Mr. Strategic said, but I do not think they have a problem at center when No. 74 Luciano is in the game.
Pass protection looks good at the tackle positions, but they haven’t seen a guy quite like Windmon yet. Meanwhile, Khris Bogle has done a decent job with wiry strength as a long-arm guy, who occasionally disengages and affects the QB.
MSU’s four-man stunt games in passing situations has been good. I haven’t seen Washington face a good stunting d-line yet. Their ability to filter out those stunts will be a key to Pennix’s night.
Here’s the x-factor in this pass rush vs pass pro matchup:
* Washington is comfortable playing with two tight ends. They often keep one or even BOTH tight ends for max pro (maximum protection).
The second play of the second half against lowly Kent State, with a 31-13 lead, Washington had two TEs on the field and kept both in for pass pro, and threw a swing pass to the RB Davis for a gain of 8.
That’s a Lloyd Carr type of approach to things. They don’t stick with that type of max pro all that often, but it’s obviously a comfortable staple in their playbook. When used properly, max pro can be a thorn in the paw to a previously effective pass rush.
IF Michigan State starts having success with its pass rush, UW has a lot of pages in its playbook to operate with extra protection from tight ends.
The drawback for UW when going with max pro is that they will only have three receivers out in the pattern. Sometimes it’s hard to find open receivers when three are working against seven. But if it’s a quick-hitting play to a RB, those windows can be open.
That’s fine on first down. But if it’s third-and-long, and UW has max pro in, and Pennix has time to throw, but he has three receivers working against six or seven in coverage … well, that’s where the football rubber meets the road. That’s football. That’s why we watch. And no, I don’t have the answer as to how those micro episodes will turn out.
My hunch is that you don’t want to give Pennix time to throw even if he only has ONE receiver out on a route. I’m exaggerating, but my point is that he is good at making reads, good at moving in the pocket to buy time, and good at throwing on the run in either direction, with arm strength and accuracy. You don’t want him to have time.
II. MSU’s RUN GAME v WASHINGTON’S RUN DEFENSE
Let’s back up for a moment. I think Washington is going to have a lot of success through the air in the first half. Michigan State will probably play zone, feel things out, and Washington will probably pick it apart.
Even if Michigan State tries to tighten up and play man, and bring blitzes, I think Washington will have the answers through the air.
Whether or not Washington can punch it in, in the red zone, is a big key. That’s something Michigan couldn’t do last year, and it cost them the game.
Washington is going to move the ball. Washington is going to score points, in my opinion (unless the Michigan State defense is better than I think it is. I think MSU’s defense is pretty good, B- good, but I think Washington can score 24 on a B-minus defense. They can score 30 if the team with the B- defense isn’t getting enough complementary help from its offense).
So that brings us to MSU’s run game.
Ground offense has been a strength for Michigan State. Not a superpower strength, but a nice, old fashioned, reliable, respectable strength. I think there’s a chance it can get even better from here.
Washington’s run defense is a little harder to trust. Washington has some big, tough, rotund defensive tackles. They have 10 guys in the playing group on the defensive line. They just keep sending them out there, and they are all pretty solid. Not all of them are fast. But they are solid.
However, Kent State rushed for 147 yards against Washington (3.8 per carry). 47 of those net yards came from the QB. Kent State has a Payton Thorne type of runner at QB. Not the greatest runner, but he’s timely with his choices and can slip quick for nice gainers here and there.
Kent State found success with the QB run game, off of zone read keepers.
Meanwhile, Washington had spats of missed tackles. They don’t tackle well.
My guy Paul K likes to point out that when I discover a weakness for a team in one game, often times that’s no longer a weakness by the time that opponent faces Michigan State because the opponent realizes it’s a weakness, they work on it, and they improve.
Well, Washington had better improve its tackling.
There were a few times when leverage and containment got a little swirly too.
Now, Washington will be facing a quality run game from a quality Big Ten team. Washington coach Kalen Deboer made an interesting comment in his press conference this week. He described Michigan State as having put together a good all-weather offense (or words to that affect). He said he recognizes that type of football from his time as an assistant coach at Eastern Michigan.
Translation: He respects MSU’s ability to pound the rock, Big Ten style. And he knows his team needed to work on meeting that challenge head-up, this week.
He’s a respected, hard-nose, no-nonsense ball coach. Can he get this Washington defense, with tough, rotund defensive tackles, and questionable tacklers at linebacker and safety, whipped together enough to contain an Michigan State running attack that might be a little better than anyone expected?
That’s a good question. That’s a key question. That’s why these are the keys to the game.
The thing that impressed me the most about Michigan State’s ground game, and maybe the thing that impressed me the most about MSU’s operation in general last week, was the Spartans’ success with inside zone runs.
Michigan State began the game against Akron with inside zone runs on the first three plays of the game, for gains of 4, 3 and 19.
Michigan State rushed for 260 yards against Akron, and did it almost entire with inside zone runs.
All of those 1-yard rushing touchdowns, and all of those running plays from the 10-yard line in, were inside zones. Very vanilla. Strong vanilla. Deliciously vanilla. Effective vanilla. Manly vanilla.
Michigan State was solid with its double-team blocks across the board with its inside zone run, whether it was Samac/Carrick, or Samac/Duplain, or Duplain/Horst, or Carrick/Brown. All of them made dents, when it was their time to make a dent.
The fourth-down stoppage was a negative. I’m still not entirely sure what went wrong there. No one was defeated. It’s not like anyone physically or athletically missed a block. I haven’t talked to Michigan State coaches or players about that play specifically, but my slightly educated guess is that tight end Tyler Hunt and right tackle Spencer Brown simply didn’t interpret the Akron front the same way on that play. It looked like Hunt thought Brown was going to do one thing, but he did another thing. And Brown thought Hunt was going to do one thing, but it seemed like Hunt was kind of out to try.
I’m not sure whose fault it was. Doesn’t matter. Needs to get cleaned up.
If you commit a mistake and it costs you a possession in this game against Washington, you might be chasing those 7 points the rest of the night.
**
As for Washington’s ability to play vs inside zone running attacks, well, Kent State sent a fair share of those type of plays at the Huskies. Washington was pretty good, most of the time, against those double teams. But not all of their deep well of d-tackles were great against Kent State double teams on all plays. And Michigan State will send a tougher batch of double-teams at them than Kent State did.
And that’s not all.
Here’s where the ice cream changes flavors. Michigan State was vanilla with its run game against Akron. And the inside zone will undoubtedly remain a bread-and-butter play for the Spartans, if I can mix food metaphors. But I expect Michigan State to present Washington’s semi-suspect run defense with more than just inside zone plays.
I suspect there will be counters, powers and other snacks that we haven’t seen Michigan State deploy a ton. I’m not talking about major tricks. These will be subtle things that most observers won’t notice. But I think Michigan State could be packing for some quality blunt force trauma run game.
I’ve been impressed by how well tied-together MSU’s blocking has been in its first two games. The combo blocks coming out of the double teams, when one of the linemen heads out to a linebacker, has been pretty tidy this year.
And I’ve been impressed with some aspects of pass protection, such as a few plays when left guard Duplain has fanned out to take the end man in pass pro while left tackle Horst hinged back inside. It was like those guys did a man-to-man basketball switch for pass pro. That’s next-level stuff, and they did it seamlessly, with each man improving the angle he had to work with, because of this scheme.
Simply put, this o-line looks like it’s starting to operation with a single brain (most of the time). That’s what you want. This o-line is further along at this point in September than either of the two previous years. Chris Kapolivic has had these guys long enough that we’re starting to see the combination of physicality AND brainwork start to gain more traction.
Last year, I thought the o-line peaked in terms of run blocking during the Michigan game. Physical, smart, working as one, getting stronger as the game wore on. (And then Horst didn’t play the rest of the season, causing AJ Arcuri to go to LT, and Kevin Jarvis to move from RG to RT, and causing Blake Beuter to start at RG. The o-line was pretty good, for the most part, for the rest of the season, but not as good as it was against Michigan.
That being said, there are signs that the o-line is further along at this point in the season than in Kapilovic’s first two year as o-line coach.
One thing to consider when watching Saturday’s game: Michigan State might not have immediate success on the ground. Washington’s d-tackles are sturdy. Their d-ends are excitable. But over the course of time, despite Washington’s depth on the d-line, there’s a chance Michigan State can exact a wearing-down process on the Huskies’ defensive front.
I don’t know if Washington lost interest or took the foot off the pedal, but their starters on defense weren’t as sharp against the run midway through the second half of the Kent State game. Maybe they lost focus. But I’ll be interested to see if Michigan State starts having more success on the ground as the game progresses into the second half. If Michigan State doesn’t have immediate success on the ground, keep chopping.
III. THE PAYTON THORNE FACTOR
No one is as primed and eager to play this game as Payton Thorne. He had huge plans for this season, as a team and an individual, and although the team has won, he has not played as well as he imagined.
I thought Thorne was going to rebound with a big game last week against Akron. It didn’t quite happen.
Now in this game, it will be interesting to see how much Michigan State uses the QB run element. Washington did not defend the QB run well last week. If you scout Michigan State, you might not think the QB run element is a big part of what they do. But will that change this week? Will Michigan State employ MORE QB run game this week while probing a potential weakness of the Washington defense? I think we will see more of the QB run game. Of course that comes with a risk, but Michigan State is out there to get to 3-0 by any means necessary.
As for Thorne’s passing game, I haven’t been all that impressed with Washington’s pass defense. There have been times when safety Asa Turner has jumped routes and come up with a pair of interceptions. Washington will mix zone and man like most defenses. Their zone work doesn’t seem overly tricky. Their man-to-man doesn’t seem to be impressively physical or fast.
The Washington pass rush is decent, not great.
A good passing attack SHOULD be able to move the ball through the air against Washington. Is Michigan State a quality passing attack? With a healthy Jayden Reed and an on-point Payton Thorne, yes Michigan State is a quality passing attack. But we’ve only seen that in spurts this year. It needs to be a consistent flow in this game.
Washington had trouble covering Kent State WR Dante Cephas. Cephas might be the best WR in the MAC. He had 82 catches last year and was first-team All-MAC.
Cephas had six catches for 105 yards (17.5 per) against Washington. His long gainer was 33 yards.
Washington put its best CB on him, No. 1, Jordan Perryman, most of the time. Perryman had trouble covering him. And now Perryman’s availability is in question. Two days after the injury, Deboer and his offensive coordinator said Perryman was day-to-day. So there’s a chance he could be back for this game.
“He’s more day to day,” co-defensive coordinator William Inge said on Sept. 5. “He has an upper leg injury. We’re going to be planning for him to be all right.”
Added DeBoer: “We are hoping that he plays. It’s definitely not anything that seems to be long-term. He’ll be working day-to-day through it.”
With or without Perryman on the field. Thorne will have open receivers. And I expect that he will have time to throw. His accuracy needs to improve, and he’s working on it. His risk-taking needs to chill down a little bit, especially on first down, and he knows it.
Pennix is likely going to be quite productive. It’s on Thorne to match that challenge not only with his arm, but also with his legs, and also in continuing to get Michigan State into the right play, which has mostly been a strength this year.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT WASHINGTON
COACH: Kalen Deboer, 47, born in South Dakota, played college ball at the University of Sioux Falls.
He had a 67-3 record as head coach at Sioux Falls from 2005 to 2009, including three NAIA National Championships.
He then bounced around as an offensive coordinator at Southern Illinois, Eastern Michigan (2014-16), Fresno State and Indiana (2019).
He was the OC when Pennix completed all those consecutive passes against Michigan State in 2019. (Michigan State won that game on a late field goal, and then added a defensive touchdown on the game’s final play to win, 40-31.
Pennix ended up 33 of 42 for 286 yards that day. DeBoer’s relationship with Pennix led Pennix to transfer to Washington from Indiana after DeBoer got the head coaching job in Seattle. Not the greatest vote of confidence in current Indiana head coach Tom Allen, but that’s another story.
DeBoer was then hired as head coach at Fresno State when Fresno’s successful head coach, Jeff Tedford, stepped down due to health reasons.
DeBoer went 3-3 during the COVID season, and 9-3 last year, making him a candidate for the Washington job.
* Washington is 2-0 after a 45-20 victory over Kent State, and 52-6 over Portland State.
(Kent State last last week, 33-3, at Oklahoma).
Last year, Kent State went 7-7, with losses to Texas A&M (41-10), Iowa (30-7) and Maryland (37-16). Kent State also lost to Western Michigan, 64-31.
Kent State won a Division Championship in the MAC, then lost to Rocky Lombardi and Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game, 41-23, and then lost to Wyoming in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 52-38.
So defense wasn’t exactly Kent State’s calling card last year. Or thus far this year.
So those of you who want me to quit comparing Pennix to CJ Stroud have a valid point. We’ll see how Pennix does on Saturday against a hard-hitting Michigan State defense which is rushing the passer well and (so far) has had good “same-pageness” in pass defense.
* In week one, Portland State lost at San Jose State, 21-17.
Last year, Portland State was 5-6 including a 49-35 loss at Hawaii and a 44-24 loss at Washington State.
By my estimation, MSU’s opposition this year has been a little stronger than Washington’s.
That being said, Washington’s first seven drives against Kent State went like this:
4 plays 37 yards, TD.
10 plays, 90 yards, TD.
10 plays, 75 yards, TD.
10 plays, 83 yards, TD.
11 plays, 52 yards, FG.
Second Half:
12 plays, 74 yards, TD.
3 plays, punt:
(KSU finally forced a punt in the last minute of the third quarter. Pennix hooked up with McMillan for a 20-yard pass to the wide side of the field and McMillan went high and wide for a picturesque catch, but he didn’t get a foot down in-bounds. So even their one offensive failure ended with a talent flash from the thrower and receiver)
next drive: 4 plays, 55 yards, TD.
* Pennix was 19 of 28 for 230 yards in the first half.
**
The Venue: Husky Stadium is one of the more unique stadiums in college football. Like most great stadiums in college football, it was built in the 1920s (1920 to be exact).
It seats 70,083. They have had a lot of empty seats in the first two games but it will be full and rocking on Saturday.
With two covered grandstands (fit for rain), the crowd noise bounces off the ceilings of those grandstands and angles right onto the field. Husky Stadium is regarded as one of the loudest stadiums in the country, for that reason.
The stadium is on the banks of Lake Washington. Some tailgates arrive via boat, added to the unique charm of the stadium.
When Washington scores a touchdown, they a siren goes off. When I was a kid, I seem to remember the siren going on and on and on like a tornado drill siren. But recently it seems a little bit more like a whimsical clown-with-a-squirting-daisy, mocking type of siren. Maybe I’m just old with a difference sense of humor. But the siren can get on your nerves if Washington is scoring and scoring and scoring.
TWO UW TRAITS: OFFENSE
1. Washington is a modern, conventional, pistol, three-WR, spread offense, similar to Michigan State.
They were one of the rare non-spread teams last year, and it failed.
Washington is also similar to Michigan State in that they will occasionally put the QB under center. And they want to establish a physical run game, occasionally with two tight ends on the field (“12 personnel).
Like Michigan State, they will run some uptempo, but they aren’t married to it.
* In the red zone, they like to run tricky little double moves for their inside receivers. Little return routes, stop-and-go routes. 11-yard TD to McMillan on a jerk route, which is a stop-and-go.
McMillan, as the No. 3 receiver, ran a short out then a pivot double move to the post. It was a tricky, squiggly little route. Pennix was into his release before he came out of his break. Pretty impressive little pass play there. However, it was made ultra easy against a Kent State 8-man pass defense with two safeties inexplicably dropping deep into the end zone.
How to stop these? It’s a team game. Pressure the QB, hands up in the passing lane, quick feet in coverage, smart help from the safety.
But realize that the routes that UW runs in the red zone are different than what they run between the 20s. And they are tough to cover when Pennix and his receivers are on the same page.
2. Washington began both halves against Kent State in two tight end/pistol. Will Michigan State match this with its base 4-2-5 with Chester Kimbrough at nickel back? Or will Michigan State match UW’s two-TE personnel with a third linebacker?
Darius Snow would have been the candidate to slide over to the nickel slot area as a third LB and a true 4-3 in these situations. He slid to nickel a few times in the first half against WMU. In the second half against WMU, Aaron Brulé played a few snaps as a nickel as a third linebacker in a 4-3, next to Cal Haladay and Ben VanSumeren.
If UW comes out in a two-TE formation, I would guess that Michigan State would match it with Brulé starting at nickel instead of Kimbrough. Just an educated guess.
How long will UW stay with 12 personnel (one back and two tight ends)? Not long. But they mix it in throughout the game, while going with today’s standard of three WRs more often, which means Kimbrough is going to play the majority of the snaps at nickel back. But don’t be surprised if Brulé starts, in order to match two-TE personnel.
WASHINGTON DEFENSE: WHAT WORKED AGAINST IT?
* Washington’s defensive line has some solid, rotund figures but they don’t have good closing speed. A QB with some escape talent can get away in order to continue to look downfield, or to tuck and run. Thorne’s legs can be a weapon in this game, on designed keepers, zone read keepers, or scrambles.
* Kent State had some gains on QB keepers off the zone read option, exploiting poor containment discipline and leverage by Washington’s edge defenders. We can assume UW has been drilling this since then. Secondly, how much does Michigan State want Payton Thorne out there carrying the mail?
Plays that worked:
* 3rd-and—5: Slant to Cephas vs Perryman in man-to-man.
* 3-10 in the third quarter: KSU ran a power read keeper for the QB, a quick-hitting keeper all the way, gained 14.
* 3-15: vs press, two deep man, KSU ran a counter read option vs a light box and sprang the RB into the secondary. Both UW safeties missed a tackle on this play and he picked up 18 on third-and-15 with a run play. That was the second straight third-and-long that KSU converted on the ground.
* 3-5 throwback sneak route to the TE for about 20 yards found an opening in the UW zone. Eye control in the back seven hasn’t been great for UW, kind of like Michigan State two years ago. Michigan State is better at it now, but these are the type of things that can take longer for a new head coach to establish.
KENT STATE’S ATTEMPTED DEFENSIVE ADJUSTMENT VS PENNIX
Early in the second half, Kent State tried to go with a three-man rush while covering with eight. Even with Kent State’s nose guard beating UW’s second-string center, Kent State wasn’t able to cover five receivers while dropping eight into coverage. It culminated with a 13-yard TD pass to 11 McMillan.
McMillan, as the No. 3 receiver, ran a short out then a pivot double move to the post. It was a tricky, squiggly little route. Pennix was into his release before he came out of his break. Pretty impressive little pass play there. However, it was made ultra easy against a Kent State 8-man pass defense with two safeties inexplicably dropping deep into the end zone.
ONE MORE THING ABOUT THE KENT STATE GAM
* Kent State had a TD pass in the red zone taken off the board due to pass interference. Kind of a questionable call. Replays didn’t really show anything egregious. Without that flag, it would have been 28-14. KSU settled for a field goal and 28-10. Giles Jackson fumbled the ensuing kickoff and Kent State gained a first down and kicked a field goal to make it 28-13.
THE MICOR: WASHINGTON PERSONNEL
Comparing last year’s dreadful Washington offense to this year. Fox color commentator Petros Papadakis:
“This is the exact opposite of that. They have a purpose, an identity. Everyone knowing what their job is, a lot of people touching the ball.
“They have created depth where it didn’t exist, at receiver, they have depth on the offensive line that they feel good about and at running back.”
Washington has quietly recruited pretty well. Their recruiting class rankings since 2018
2021: No. 42
2020: No. 19
2019: No. 16
2018: No. 15
During that same timeframe, MSU’s recruiting classes looked like this:
2021: No. 45
2020: No. 36
2019: No. 32
2018: No. 26
Of course Michigan State has changed out many of the recruits in those classes with transfers, but let the record show that Washington has recruited better than Michigan State, for what it’s worth, since 2018.
INSIDE WASHINGTON’S PERSONNEL
* Go over the 14 or 15 guys in the offensive playing group. The opposition was not good, but I didn’t see an individual weakness in this group.
9 MICHAEL PENNIX JR (6-3, 213, Jr., Tampa)
* Transfer from Indiana.
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 55 in Florida and No. 14 at pro style QB.
* Could not stay healthy in any of his three seasons at Indiana. Suffered season-ending injuries in two of his four seasons.
* At Indiana: 59.4 pct, 35 TDs, 15 INTs, 4,197 yards.
* He played in only 20 games at Indiana.
* 26 of 39 for 345 vs KSU with four TDs no INTs, four carries 27 yards
* 20 of 27 for 337 with 2 TDs 1 INT vs Portland State
* The one INT vs Portland State was a high throw on a 15-yard crossing route.
* His most famed game at Indiana was when he dove for the pylon in OT to beat Penn State, 36-35 during the COVID season.
Pennix’s numbers weren’t great in that game: 19 of 36 for 170.
* Pennix still has some mobility. He doesn’t want to tuck and run, but he did it a couple of times on third down against KSU.
Plus and Minus Notes, mostly from the KSU game:
+ vs cover two, smash concept, pump fake to the flat, opened up the cover two hole, threw a completion for 20 yards.
Makes good use of those pump fakes to manipulate the safety. He makes a read, pumps, and knows where he going with the ball, and it’s usually on a line and accurate to good receivers who are good at getting separation and are part of a well-conceived pass scheme. That part reminds me of Purdue last year.
++ 32-yard TD pass to WR (3) Taj Davis on an out route from the left hash to the far flag. Rope with touch. Excellent pass. Froze the safety with a pump.
- Threw behind WR (1) Odunze on a square-in, in the red zone, vs KSU. INC.
+ 15-yard pass to Odunze into cover two hole early in the 2H against an 8-man coverage with a later rusher.
He had all kinds of time against the three man rush, flushed gently to the left to buy more time and found the open window, then rarely misses with the pass. He connected with this pass while moving to his left.
* He has mobility, accuracy, strong arm, and he can read/process. He can throw while moving to the left or right, very well.
- 1-10 at +23: KSU came with a five man rush, plus a spy. The spy, at LB level, batted down a pass, a slant intended for an outside receiver. Receiver Odunze was wide open.
+ Deep post to McMillan for 44 yards early in the 4Q.
+ Great throw rolling to his right, his non-throwing hand, throwing on the run, perfect touch to McMillan down the right sideline, rolling right to escape a five-man blitz. McMillan, the middle receiver in a trips formation, ran an out-and-up (more of an old-school out-and-up than a wheel). Deadly accurate.
QB 5 DYLAN MORRIS (6-0, 197, Soph., Puyallup, Wash.)
* Back-up QB. He’s notable due to Pennix’s history of injuries.
* Is not impressive. Noah Kim looks better right now.
- Sacked on his first snap vs KSU.
+ Complete to Taj Davis on a post, thrown a little low.
* Started 11 game last year. Led the Pac-12 in interceptions.
* HM All-PAC 12 in 2020 in the short season.
* Last year; Completed 60 percent of his passes with 14 TDs, 12 INTs, 2,458 yards.
QB Sam Huard (6-2, 193, Bellevue, Wash.)
* Is a redshirt freshman.
* Was a FIVE-STAR prospect, No. 17 in the country.
* Played 14 snaps this year. I haven’t gotten a good look at him. If something happened to Pennix, I wouldn’t be surprised if Huard got the call over Morris.
* He is 2 of 2 for 24 yards this year.
RUNNING BACKS
* Decent group. Dependable. Nothing scary.
21 Wayne Taulapapa, averaging 75 yards a game and 6.6 per carry
22 Cam Davis, averaging 44 yards a game and 4.9 per carry.
21 RB WAYNE TAULAPAPA (5-11, 207, Sr., Honolulu)
* Transfer from Virginia. Started 27 games at Virginia.
* Was a two-star recruit.
* Voted captain at UW.
* 11 carries 57 yards vs KSU.
* 12 carries 94 yards vs Portland State.
* Rushed 62 times for 324 yards last year, 5.2 per. 1,192 career rushing yards at Virginia.
* Solid ball carrier, nothing spectacular. I wouldn’t say he is better than Eli Collins.
* Fumbled in the 2Q vs Kent State but Washington recovered.
* Played some Wildcat last week, gained 24 on a keeper the first time they showed it. Ran it to the TE (88) side. 88, the TE, is a plus blocker. They go to 88’s side in short yardage. Does Michigan State have a d-end who can bash 88 at the point of attack against the run? I don’t think so. We’ll learn more about MSU’s point-of-attack run defense in those situations in this game, and it will be telling regarding MSU’s competency in that department heading into the Minnesota game.
22 RB Cameron Davis (6-0, 208, Soph., Upland, Calif.)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 207 in the nation and No. 32 in California.
* Jordon Simmons type
* I think this guy is a little better than Taulapapa. Davis started the second half against KSU.
+ Swing pass in the red zone vs zone defense, lowered his shoulder for extra yardage for 12 yards. Then carried twice for 6 and 1 (TD) yard to finish the drive.
* Their fastest running back.
* Rushed 8 times for 18 yards vs KSU. Rushed 10 times for 70 yards against Portland State, with a long of 14.
* Rushed for 308 yards last year (3.6 per carry)
8 RB/WR Will Nixon (5-11, 192, R-Fr., Waco, Texas)
* Transfer from Nebraska.
* Was a three-star recruit, ranked No. 86 in Texas.
* (Played WR at Nebraska UW likes him as a RB)
* Flare reception for gain of 7.
+ Gain of 10 early in the 2H vs KSU on an inside zone. UW was in a 1 by 3 formation with five blockers. KSU had five in the box and covered with six.
When UW had five vs five in the box, they checked to a run, got a hat on a hat, plus WR Odunze blocked the safety, Nixon did a good job using that block and, bang, it’s 10 yards against a MAC defense. Someone has to defeat a block, but no one did.
UW will check to the run, and do it well, if you leave the box light.
WASHINGTON PASS GAME IN A NUTSHELL
* They have good receivers who run good routes as part of good schematic concepts and Pennix finds them with catchable passes. They will juice it up with a trick play or two. The run game is just okay.
WASHINGTON RECEIVERS
Leaders:
11 Jalen McMillan 9 catches, 3 TDs, 107 yards per game
0 Giles Jackson, 8 catches, 63 yards per game.
2 Ja’Lynn Polk, 6 catches, 46 yards per game
1 Rome Odunze, 7 catches, 84 yards per game. (Did not play last week).
RB 22 Cam Davis, 4 catches, 18 yards per game.
* McMillan and Odunze were big-time recruits who are really starting to come into their own. Jackson was a four-star. Taj Davis is good.
How do they compare to Jayden Reed, Trey Mosley, Keon Coleman and Germie Bernard?
It's close. Probably an edge to Washington. A big game from Coleman could change my viewpoint. It's possible. But he and Thorne need to continue to find the right pag
A closer look:
1 WR ROME ODUNZE (6-3, 201, Soph., Las Vegas)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 239 in the nation and No. 2 in Nevada.
* 41 catches last year
* Did not play last week as a “health precaution” but was in uniform. He is expected to play this week.
* Big, physical WR, good blocker.
+ Good route on 14-yard out vs KSU two-deep zone.
+ Will use him in goal line situations as a pull blocker in super power.
+ 4 yard TD on a return route to the outside, Penix on time, accurate, TD vs KSU, made it 28-7.
They like these short, tight, change-of-direction routes in the red zone. Hard to cover.
+ Gain of 12 on a third-and-four slant. Pennix looked him up the way Thorne looks up Jayden Reed.
+ 8 yard catch on third-and-six, Pennix with excellent velocity on that one.
11 WR JALEN McMILLAN (6-1, 186, Soph, Fresno)
* Was a four-star, Top 100 recruit, ranked No. 84 in the nation and No. 8 in California.
* 5 catches for 87 yards vs KSU
* 4 catches foe 127 including 84 yard Td vs Portland state
* 2021: 39 catches last year.
+ Gain of 19 vs KSU on a crossing route vs zone. Pretty pass from Pennix.
* First deep shot vs KSU. UW was in in an unbalanced formation, kept the TE in to protect, Deep Inc to mcMillan.
+ 13-yard TD pass on a squiggly double move to the post.
+ 84-yard TD vs Portland State. Lined up as the inside receiver, seam route, ran past a slow Portland State safety. UW will try to isolate 11 on Kendell Brooks with similar plays.
3 WR TAJ DAVIS (6-2, 193, Soph, Upland, Calif)
* Three-star recxruit, ranked No. 50 in California.
* 26 catches last year.
+ 32 yard TD pass vs KSU on a post corner route. Post corner vs man to man, very good route. Good nod to the post then broke off his route sharply. Great pass from Pennix from the left hash to the far right pylon.
+ Drew pass interference on a deep hitch and go vs KSU in the 1Q.
0 WR GILES JACKSON (5-9, 185, Jr, Antioch, Calif)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 233 in the nation, signed with Michigan.
* Quick feet as a punt and kickoff returner.
* Quick feet utilized on a jet pop pass for 6 yards vs KSU.
* 6 catches vs Portland State, 2 catches vs KSU
* 8 catches last season. Is being used more this year.
+ Gain of 15 on third and eight vs KSU. Really good route combination. Trips to left. Jackson was the middle receiver of the three. Jackson and the outside WR ran a high low to the sideline. The inside receiver ran a rub for each of them in what amounted to a sail flood.
2 WR Ja’Lynn Polk (6-2, 199, R-Fr., Lufkin, Tex)
* Texas Tech transfer.
+ Comeback vs bailing zone at 15 yards, for a gain of 20, early in the 2H against KSU. Pennix hit him like candy from a baby.
TIGHT ENDS
* They have three good tight ends. They don’t feature them in the pass game a lot, but they are there if needed. They use two- and even three-TE sets regularly. These guys get playing time and they do their job:
83 TE Devin Culp (6-4, 239, Jr., Spokane)
* Was a high 5.7 three star recruit, ranked No. 4 in Washington.
* Maliq Carr type, though not quite as muscular and physical. But he is athletic for a TE.
* He only has two catches for 13 yards (both against Kent State) but he’s a threat.
* 20 catches last year with 1 TD and a long of 33 yards.
- Dropped a pass against KSU on a counter boot drag. Excellent pass on the move by Pennix.
* They went deep to him off a reverse flea flicker, drawing pass interference.
37 TE Jack Westover (6-3, 245, Jr., Bellevue, Wash.)
* Former walk-on.
+ Good insert block on a zone read vs KSU, gain of 5.
* Can really run his feet as a down blocker, quick.
88 TE Quentin Moore ((6-4, 259)
* 2021 juco transfer
* Good run blocker
* One catch 8 yards vs KSU, one catch 5 yards vs Portland State
+ Very good combo and kickout block to spring Talapapa 27-yard TD run against KSU.
+ Very good block on a pair of goal line powers vs KSU as the right TE.
OFFENSIVE LINE
* Aside from the second-string C who started the second half against Kent State, I didn’t see any negatives from any of these five players, and saw some positives. Looks like a solid group.
And when I look deeper, I’m not surprised to find that three of the five starters were four-star recruits.
LT 55 TROY FAUTANU 6-4, 312, Soph. Henderson Nev
* 5.7 three-star recruit ranked No. 3 in Nevada.
* 3 starts last year.
* Looks decent. Jacoby Windmon might be able to beat him once or twice, but I don’t think 55 is out of his league. Not a guy that Windmon would beat all day every day, like the Western Michigan guy. But I could be wrong. We’ll see. Key matchup.
55 will get help from tight ends.
LG 71 NATE KALEPO 6-6, 316, Soph, Renton, Wash.
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 2 in Washington.
* First year starter
+ Good job coming off DT to pick up blitzing LB on third down vs KSU in 1Q. Good awareness and feet.
+ Good mobility as a pull blocker on power.
+ Good combo block on a zone read vs KSU, gain of 5. Quick getting out to the LB after establishing the initial double team.
* This guy is 6-6? Looks like a future NFL guy to me.
C 74 COREY LUCIANO 6-4, 294, Sr., juco transfer Danville, Calif.
* first year starter.
+ Good block on a third-and-one inside zone in the first quarter against KSU. Got into the nose guard, turned him with help from a chip from the left guard. Tackled him, might have gotten away with holding.
* (Played RG in the 2H vs KSU)
* Came back to start again at C vs Portland State. Ran behind him for gain of 10 on inside zone. He turned the NG pretty well.
[C 78 Matteo Mele, 6-6, 300, Jr., Tucson, Ariz.)
* Started second half against KSU and did not play well.
- Got pressed backward by two-gapping 330-pound CJ West of KSU pretty badly on the third play of the second half, and West made the tackle for a loss of 1.
* If 78 is at center, MSU’s d-tackle of choice should be able to put a dent in him.
RG 66 HENRY BAINIVALU 6-7, 307, Sr, Sammamish, Wash
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 5 in Washington. Also visited Oregon.
+ Good pop on double-team during Taulapapa’s 27-yard TD run vs KSU
* three year starter.
* HM All Pac 12 in 2020.
* Good quickness as a puller on power.
* Good footwork when pulling and turning the corner. Mobile. At 6-7? That’s a pro prospect, too.
RT 73 ROGER ROSENGARTEN 6-6, 303, R-Fr, Highland Ranch Colo.
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 2 in Colorado.
+ Good down block on goal line power vs KSU. Looks very capable.
+ Pretty good lateral movement in pass pro.
WASHINGTON DEFENSE
* They have spats of shaky tackling, and their run fits and leverage get a little leaky a times. Not all the time. Just here and there. Michigan State MUST capitalize on those “here and theres.”
GAME WITHIN THE GAME
This game could become a shootout. Michigan State needs to keep up on the scoreboard. Michigan State isn’t as sharp in the passing game as Washington. Michigan State NEEDS to create a big dent with the run game, and UW knows it. Michigan State has been burly in the run game thus far this year. UW will be bent on trying to prove itself as a worthy run-stopping unit. That game within the game, Michigan State’s blunt force football vs UW’s excitement in trying to stop it, will be pivotal and interesting.
WEAKNESSES
* Attack No. 6 in the slot. He’s a big guy. Can he cover well enough? Can you isolate him on Jayden Reed? If not, can he cover Tre Mosley or your tight ends? Test No. 6.
* Go after No. 10 and 29 at cornerback. They will be replacing No. 1.
No. 1 is questionable with an injury. No. 1 is their best CB and he wasn’t all that great. So how good are his replacements? Go find out.
GUESS THE GAMEPLAN
* They are sloppy in their defense of the zone read option. Michigan State runs zone read option maybe a couple of times a game. But will Michigan State run MORE zone read option in this game? The film suggests they should or could. But do you want to expose Thorne to that contact?
In key third down situations, don’t be surprised to see zone read - even on third-and-medium.
DEFENSIVE LINE
* They have several rotund d-linemen, built to two-gap. They occasionally one-gap but aren’t that great at it. Allowed a 7-yard run on an inside zone while one-gapping on a third-and-medium against a bad, weak Portland State team in the 2Q. Probably did Portland State a favor by one-gapping on that play, but UW probably thought they could catch them with a quick-hitting changeup.
* 10 defensive linemen have played 31 or more snaps this year. By comparison, Michigan State has eight defensive linemen who have played 31 or more snaps, and Michigan State is pretty deep on the d-line. Not as deep as Washington, but Washington plays more guys with questionable mobility.
* Their pass rush is respectable but not problematic. If they want to blitz, fine. Eat against their man coverage.
STARTING DTs:
*DT 99 FAATUI TUITELE (6-3, 302, Soph., Honolulu)
* Was a four-star Top 100 recruit, ranked No. 100 and No. 1 in Hawaii by Rivals.com.
* Looks solid. I didn’t happen to see anything spectacular.
* DT 91 TULI LETULIGASENOA (6-1, 307, Jr., Concord, Calif.)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 145 in the nation by Rivals.com and No. 22 in California.
* Plays DE in a 30 front when they go with three down linemen against two-TE personnel.
* Stubby. Mediocre mobility and lateral movement.
* Honorable Mention All-Pac 12 last year. 6.5 TFLs last year, led UW.
- Moved back a yard by a double team on an inside zone, gain of 9 early in the second half.
+ Solid job getting a half yard of penetration on the center, disengaging and making a TFL on a counter play vs KSU in the 3Q.
* Looked okay. Has big accolades but I didn’t necessarily see anything spectacular from him. Maybe I’m underrating No. 91 and 99 inside. They don’t look great, but that doesn’t mean they will be hard to move when Michigan State runs its inside zone right at them. That’s going to be intriguing football when that happens. And can they play hard for all 60 minutes? Maybe not. Maybe that’s why they sub so much.
DEFENSIVE ENDS
DE 3 JEREMIAH MARTIN (6-4, 267, Sr., San Bernardino, Calif.)
* Transfer from Texas A&M.
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 194 in the country and No. 28 in Califronia.
* Slippery arm over move in run defense for tackle for gain of 1 vs KSU in the first quarter.
+ Solid job taking on lead blocker at POA on a power to his side vs KSU, spilling it to 11.
* Decent with the bull rush. Feet are pretty quick as a stand-up defensive end, and has wiry strength to continue running his feet after engaging.
DE 8 Bralen Trice (6-4, 269, Soph., Phoenix.)
* Listed as an outside LB, but he plays stand-up DE.
* Had a QB pressure in the 2Q against KSU, with a decent outside move, some flexibility and good quickness to close. Good pass rusher for a second-stringer.
+ Pretty good shoulder-club pass rush vs a struggling KSU left tackle, but then Trice got too high and missed the sack.
(DE 58 ZION TUPUOLA-FETUI)
* Torne achilles in April of 2020. Was not himself last year.
+ Slant inside, got a QB pressure/flush against KSU in the third quarter. Not a great move. KSU with decreasing resistance as the second half continued.
* Decent take-off as a stand-up DE.
+ Pretty good wheels. Good lateral quickness to close daylight.
+ Pretty good counter move to the inside to get a pressure/flush early in the 4Q vs KSU but missed the sack.
* He is a better second-string DE than Brandon Wright. Nothing against Wright, but 58 is better.
ARMY OF RESERVES
(DE 0 Sav’ell Smalls, 6-3, 259, Soph., Seattle)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 48 in the nation and No. 1 in Washington.
+ Good play on draw, disengage fro KSU left tackle and made the tackle for a gain of line.
- Lost contain on a zone read QB keeper vs KSU. And then did it again.
* Has talent but might be a little unsound in run fits.
(DT 98 KUAO PEIHOPA, 6-3, 304, R-Fr., Makakilo, Hawaii)
* Decent against double-team in the 2Q vs KSU.
* Good against KSU double-teams. MSU’s double-teams will be harder.
(DT 68 Ulumoo Ale, 6-6, 340, Jr., Tacoma)
* OK against double team vs inside zone at the 3-yard line in the 4Q.
* Former offensive lineman. Great size, decent mobility, was banged up in camp.
(90 Voi Tonuufi, 6-1, 258, Soph., South Jordan, Utah)
* Serviceable for a few snaps.
(NG 55 Jacob Bandes, 6-2, 292, Soph., Pittsburg, Calif.)
+ Pretty good arm over vs center for a sack in the red zone vs KSU
LINEBACKERS
* These guys are kind of pedestrian. They tip-toe a little bit, aren’t thumpers, aren’t terribly fast, and I’ve seen them miss a couple of tackles.
11 ILB ALPHONSO TUPUTALA (6-2, 238, Soph., Federal Way, Wash.)
* Was a 5.5 three-star recruit and summer commitment with mid-major offers.
* Early in the game he looked solid all the way around vs the run on a power at him vs KSU in the first half.
* Not the fastest sideline to sideline. Has a Maa Gaoteote type of build and speed. Doesn’t hit as hard.
* Solid vs power again in the 1H after Martin closed in tight and won his collision, combining for a TFL on third down.
- A little hesitant in the hole.
* Not a great tackler.
2 ILB CAM BRIGHT (6-0, 222, Sr., Montgomery, Ala.0
* Transfer from Pitt.
* Former three-star recruit
* Started eight games at Pitt last year.
* Had 20.5 TFLs at Pitt and 182 career tackles.
* Why did he leave Pitt? I don’t know. Maybe he lost his starting job last year.
* He didn’t stand out in the two UW games I watched. Maybe he is having trouble adapting to a two-gap system, similar to the slowness Noah Harvey had in adapting in 2020.
* This guy has been solid in the past. If the light goes on for him, there’s a chance the UW linebacker situation is better than I’m making it out to be at first glance.
THE SECONDARY
Their top CB, No. 1, Jordan Perryman is a question mark after missing last week with a lower body injury. The other guys don’t look great.
CORNERBACKS
23 CB MISHAEL POWELL (6-1, 204, Soph., Seattle)
* Former walk-on, had no offers.
* Started three games last year.
- beaten deep for a 47-yard TD vs KSU. He played outside technique, seemed to think 7 safety (Dominique Hampton) would help to the inside (especially after the No. 2 WR motioned to the other side), but 7 covered no one. From there, 23 didn’t have great make up speed.
+ Pretty solid and energetic in run defense.
- Defensive holding on a fourth down deep ball against Portland State. Not a good look.
1 CB JORDAN PERRYMAN (6-0, 202, Sr., Hanford, Calif)
* Transfer from UC Davis.
* Unranked recruit.
* UW coaches say he had the best camp of an of the DBs.
* Went down with an unknown injury late in the KSU game. Non-contact injury, had to be helped out very gingerly.
* Was first-team All-Big Sky last year.
- Had trouble matching WR Dante Cephas, an All-MAC player, on an over route on third-and-six in the first quarter. Gain of 32. Cephas had 82 catches last year for Kent State. Not the easiest cover.
= Decent coverage on Cephas on a deep route, from press coverage.
- Missed a tackle along the sideline on an out route to Cephas, costing Washington about 12 more yards.
* 3-5: Slant to Cephas vs 1 in man-to-man. Perryman fell when trying to mirror him through traffic.
29 JULIUS IRVIN (6-1, 179, Jr., Anaheim, Calif.)
* Was a four-star, Top 100 recruit, ranked No. 95 in the nation and No. 12 in California.
* Started two games last year. Has been slow to live up to his Top 100 billing.
* The likely starter if Perryman can’t go.
* Started and played 36 snaps last week. PFF graded him as a C in pass defense, 65.1.
* Played some mop up CB against KSU and was flagged for defensive holding.
(10 CB Davon Banks, 5-11, 185, R-Fr., San Jacinto, Calif.)
* Two-star recruit.
* Played 13 snaps last week, might be one of the replacements if Perryman can’t play.
- Portland State burned him with a double pass in the 1Q last week for about 40 yards but it was called back for an illegal shift.
SLOT NICKEL
7 DOMINIQUE HAMPTON (6-3, 221, Jr., Glendale, Ariz.)
* Three-star recruit, 5.5.
* Started three games last year.
* Is a big body to be playing slot nickel. Kind of has Dantonio size for the position. Is he quick enough to play it? Find out.
* They call his position the HUSKY position, not a slot nickel. It’s bigger than a bandit.
* For a big guy, they aren’t afraid to put him in press man-to-man at times. If Michigan State sees that, go ahead and attack him deep. KSU tried once, didn’t connect, but don’t let a guy with that size play press vs your slot WR without testing him deep.
+ KSU tried to go deep to him with a slot fade late in the 3Q. He turned and ran pretty well, covered it, possibly could have gotten flagged for not getting his head around. Was a little awkward at the end of the route, but that’s excusable for a guy with his size.
* good hit early in the KSU game in run support. More physical than Chester Kimbrough in the slot, as he should be with his size.
+ Strong play defeating a WR block and stopping a zone read run in the red zone after the LBs didn’t replace. (Error by the LB. They make sloppy errors in run fits and assignments once in awhile).
SAFETIES
20 ASA TURNER (6-3, 201, Jr., Carlsbad, Calif.)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 37 in California.
* Guy with the long blondish hair.
* He’s an excitable, run-around guy.
+ INT on first play of the game vs Kent State, rotating up from a two-deep zone.
* Has at least one interception in each of his four seasons at Washington.
* Is not grading out well as a tackler by PFF (26.1, F).
+ INT on third-and-long vs KSU late in the 3q. He was the single safety deep in man-to-man and benefitted from a forced pass.
5 S ALEX COOK (6-1, 196, Sr., Sacramento)
* Was a three-star recruit as a WR.
* Three-year starter.
* deep safety. Right safety. boundary safety.
* Not much of an opinion on him, other than a missed tackle.
6 FS CAMERON WILLIAMS (6-0, 207, Jr., Bakersfield, Calif.)
* Was a three-star recruit.
* Had three starts last year.
- Holding, in pass coverage man to man vs KSU just outside of the red zone.
- Missed a tackle in run defense in the fourth quarter.
* This guy is slowish. Portland State ran No. 7, a decently slippery receiver, right at him and ran by him on a fourth-and-long in the 2Q last week, he was open by a step and a half but was overthrown. No trick play, no hitch-and-go, Williams should have been protecting against the deep ball and he STILL was beaten with ease.
SPECIAL TEAMS
* UW kickoff coverage team seems a little shaky. Allowed a 48-yard return against KSU.
* Giles Jackson fumbled a kickoff return vs KSU. was honorable mention all big ten as a return specialist in 2020
* Their punter is averaging only 39 yards per punt. He has only attempted 3.
If stats hold up, Michigan State could have a nice edge in the net punt game. Must cover Giles Jackson to make it stand up.
* UW’s kicker, Peyton Henry, is 2 of 2 on the year with a couple coming from the 30-39 range.
He has 23 touchbacks this year. I wouldn’t expect much from MSU’s kickoff return team.
He was 11 of 14 last year but only had a long of 38 yards.
He hit a 45-yarder in 2020 and a 49-yarder in 2019. So he is proven.
Give Washington an edge-plus at place kicker, due to MSU’s inexperience at the position.
ADD IT ALL UP
Pressure Pennix. That’s the age-old answer to stopping a very good QB.
Can Michigan State pressure him AND cover tightly in man-to-man?
Can Michigan State pressure him with four? And cover tightly wish six or seven?
We’ll learn a lot about Michigan State and where its pass defense stands after this game.
And we’ll learn a lot about MSU’s running game and whether it can become a weekly menace to opponents with a potentially improving offensive line?
And we’ll learn whether Payton Thorne can climb out of his three-game funk (dating back to the bowl game).
At key points in the game, it will come down to five- and six-man Michigan State pressures backed by man-to-man coverage. It’s a risk/reward situation for Michigan State. It might be the best way to stop Pennix and his receivers, but IF you lose a particular play, it can get out for a long gain vs man-to-man.
Michigan State has played a lot of soft zone thus far this year, challenging WMU and Akron to “go the long way” and “snap it again and again” in order to score. Michigan State has not given up many big plays; the QB draw against man-to-man in the WMU game was somewhat of an outlier, but also an example of how things can get out against blitz man-to-man.
Akron and WMU weren’t good enough to carve and carve and carve against MSU’s zone defenses. But Washington is good enough.
If Michigan State is able to get an edge in the turnover department, a sound running attack would provide a much-needed hammer to build toward victory.
Can Michigan State pound the run for 150-plus yards? UW has a decent, deep defensive line. A lot of interchangeable, functional d-linemen but I don’t see any world-beaters up front. Their linebackers are medicore. It wouldn’t take a great running attack to rush for 150 yards against UW. Michigan State needs to get 175-plus.
If Michigan State wins this game comfortably, don’t slam me and Petros Papadakis for overrating an opponent. Give credit to Michigan State for taking down a solid opponent in a difficult environment.
Potential difference makers:
* There’s a chance UW will be a little less accountable on defense than Michigan State, a little more prone to mistakes.
Washington will pop off some pretty pass plays, but they will earn them.
There’s a chance Michigan State could get some chain-mover gifts against Washington. Enough to turn the game? Maybe no. But Michigan State might need every inch it can get.
* In terms of big play potential in the passing game, both teams have it. In terms of affecting the opponent with the pass rush, Michigan State has the edge there. In terms of reading defenses and delivering sharp, accurate passes, Washington will have the edge there.
* It might not look like it in the final stat sheet, but I expect Michigan State’s pass defense personnel and schemes to be better than Washington’s. It might not look like it because the QB probing MSU’s pass defense will likely be better than the QB probing Washington’s defense.
I don’t mean to criticize Thorne. I think he is a good player, capable of becoming very good. Great kid. I’m just giving the edge to Pennix for now.
At the end of the day, Pennix and his receiving corps seems more consistent and able than MSU’s. Thorne has a chance to change that trend in this game, and Michigan State needs him to.
Michigan State needs its run game to keep chugging. Washington will be a solid obstacle in run defense here and there, but if you keep chopping, there will be slippage in their run defense, especially vs the QB run (unless they have really tightened up that area of their game. Michigan State will test them there).
The Michigan State pass rush vs UW’s pass pro? UW is good in this area, and will use tight ends to help. The pass rush might not be as impactful as some might expect. But if the pass rush is indeed forceful for a third straight week, and if Michigan State continues to hit hard and force turnovers, and it comes with a B+ or better performance from Michigan State, then it could be a constructive day for Michigan State. Those are big ifs. That’s what the regular season is for, after all the talking season ends.
My guess is Pennix will do well, even if MSU's pass rush is pretty good. MSU's pass defense might be pretty good, but it might not look like it in this game. I wouldn't be surprised if Pennix throw for 330-plus. But I wouldn't be surprised if that's not enough. A shootout with both teams scoring in the 30s is a 51 percent possibility in my opinion. Michigan State might have more trouble keeping up, offensively, than Washington.