Most of you have already seen this write up by MSU on Windmon through 2 games:

• Senior defensive end/linebacker Jacoby Windmon caused three forced fumbles, the most by a Spartan since Joe Bachie had three vs. Maryland in 2018 . . . he also recorded 1.5 sacks (14 yards) and 2.5 tackles for loss (17 yards) in addition to a fumble recovery and five tackles overall . . . Windmon now has 5.5 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss and four forced fumbles in just two games this season.

That is friggin amazing, and why he has been the B1G DPOW 2 weeks in a row.

But here are a few additional thoughts:

• His 5.5 sacks put him at 2nd nationally. One guy has 6. 3rd place is at 4 sacks.
• His 4 Forced Fumbles leads the NCAA. The next closest is 2.
• In game 1, he had 4 sacks. However, he got to the QB first 3 other times, forcing him to step up and get sacked by another Spartan. He was close to getting 7 sacks.
• In game 2, on every passing down, Akron brought a TE or RB over to create a double-team, so his stats in week 2 were against double-teams.
• Going forward, I’m sure we will blitz from the opposite side of Windmon. This is what most teams do when they have a dominant pass-rusher. I saw this with the Texans when JJ Watt was at his peak. We would get a lot of sacks from the other side, with a DE and LB blitzing as teams rolled their protection towards Watt.
• Maryland and Washington pass a lot (Minny not so much), so those two games should be interesting for our pass rush.

I am hoping that Windmon keeps going, and gets into the national spotlight as his stats add up.

Today against the chargers. Nearing 100 yds and 1 score so far with 9 minutes to go

He may just be flat out better than Mac Jones.

We got Sean McDonough. Let’s go!!!!!

Watched it at 7:00pm.

Definitely worth a look! Liked that they framed it with MSU's recent dominance over um.

Nice that they highlighted also a couple of legacy Ranger squad members, Morrisey and Miller, who were key in the play.

Yes, and plenty of Jalen Watts-Jackson commentary on his moment that will always be remembered in Spartan history.

MSU showing up on some ballots:

USCHO.com Top 20:

1. Minnesota
2. St. Cloud
3. Denver
4. Michigan
5. UMass
11. Ohio State
12. Notre Dame
16. Penn State
#5 in OV category: Michigan State (7 total pts), Wisconsin got one too.

USA Today Top 15:

1. Minnesota
2. St. Cloud
3. Denver
4. Michigan
5. UMass
11. Ohio State
12. Notre Dame
15. Penn State

No votes here for MSU.

Section 43, Row 5, Seat 9 - just looking to get the $195 face value we paid for the ticket and would love for it to go to a Spartan. DM if interested.

One of the good kids from Michigan? Does anyone know what type of procedure he had in Florida?

Kid has been through some stuff. I don’t know if anyone saw the Gameday feature on him and the fireman that saved him from his burning home when he was an infant. Pretty powerful stuff.

Here is Mel talking about Michigan

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When will schedules be released for next year?

TIA ✅

Mac Jones benched, Zappe comes in and promptly throws a touchdown pass.

Bill Belichick doesn’t have time for your mediocrity…

I know this is a football so just hold off on the comments of post this stuff someplace else. I really don't care just hear to tell ya my thoughts on New York. If you like baseball like me you might be a Tigers fan or Cubs or Sox either its ok. Just like to bring up some cool points on this year's NYY team. If this team continues to play at the clip they currently are we might be watching a Top 5 MLB team ever. Leading the MLB in ERA and Defensive stats. Also leads the MLB in Runs, and HRs. Before everyone talks about 💰 I'll just say this I still don't know one player who plays for free. I love it the whole league worried because NY is on point this season. If you like historical things like me just might want to check them out. Pretty cool stuff

Top 100 (#79) DT from 2020 class. Went to Auburn over offers from AL and GA. Was 4th highest member in Auburn's 2020 class.

Of its top 10 recruits from 2020, only 3 remain. Yikes. Hopefully we keep the door open for Wedin.

Heard the Grove is something else when it comes to tailgating. Anyone experience it? I’m sure it will be ‘off the chain’ in a few weeks when Bama comes to town..

I've been thinking about the coming matchup a lot, as I'm sure most of you have. My caesar's app shows the Wolverines as 22.5 point favorites. That doesn't bother me too much, we were heavy underdogs last year, even bigger the year before, and we know how those turned out.

But when you start to think critically about how an upset could be sprung, there are a few good tail wind aspects. I could buy the idea that MSU gets healthy over the bye, and stunting UM's run game. UM has feasted on a weak schedule to date, and on the other side, we were missing a star d-tackle, safety, and solid contributor defensive ends, I could see us keeping a lid on the offense, and holding them under say 31.

***Edit, I forgot to highlight the move of Windmon to LB. I think this is another big cause for optimism in run defense.

On offense, Thorne is coming off a great game, and I think we have the skill talent to match up with anyone. Reed, Coleman, Mosely and the TEs can are very good, and Thorne is a very capable QB.

However, we know the team that runs the ball successfully has the best chance to win this game. I don't see a scenario where we outrush Michigan. In fact, I am struggling to see how we are even close in that department. On the year, we average 104 net yards rushing. If that isn't bad enough, it is being inflated by 'cotton candy' yards run up against Western and Akron, where MSU was both near 200 yards.

In our best rushing effort in recent weeks was Wisconsin, where we netted just 99.

Maybe we pull out the Rocky Lomardi / Ricky White offense, and try and take a bunch of deep shots and double moves. But if you're Michigan, against our running game, are you really going to worry about stopping the run with extra resources? Or are you protecting your CBs with deep safety help? I would play conservatively with the secondary, but I'm not a coach.

If we can't run the ball consistently, I think the path to victory becomes a lot tougher. Maybe Reed can take a punt back, or you get lucky with a defensive score. But that feels like grasping at straws to me.

To win this game, CMT will have to get the best possible effort out of his team that he can. I'm kind of counting on that, he has already shown the ability to cycle up for UM twice. But in my opinion, the area we need it most is running the ball.

Happy rivalry week, everyone!

Must see TV on BTN B1G Moment. Great memories! A delicious victory, in a game we deserved to win. Dantonio totally out-coached Harbaugh. Great back stories never heard before

A real barn-burner.

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Not sure if this is okay to post here or not, but I like this podcast & Matt does a nice job. This episode is purely recruiting & his guest covers the good, bad & ugly.

Just something to get through the bye week & your work day.

Just about a month ago I go to a person's home in Howell MI to look at a Porsche Cayenne. Guy has on a um sweatshirt and is talking non-stop about everything other than the car.

We get in so I can drive it and he is fishing around about me and why I am in Michigan, so he asks where I went to school. Doesn't ask me if I am a fan, but launches in first about how much he dislikes that other coach - Dantonio. "He is mean". I ask oh, funny I've met the man twice for almost an hour each time and couldn't have been nicer. "His reaction to the little brother comment"...you know "that is a compliment". I asked how so again. "You know like state is part of the family". Interesting I say. Where did you go to school? "I went to a year at um and took a transfer after taking some time off and graduated from _____" (I honestly didn't recognize the school, and I thought I knew all the colleges in Michigan). "My father and brother both went to state and are fans."

Hmmmm I respond. In no way shape or form do I consider that a compliment, and watching Hart make the comment neither did he. I said it isn't about being a brother as a compliment, it was about arrogance, ignorance, and entitlement coming from the program. Not only did Dantonio respond perfectly, but he backed it up and owned Michigan from that point. Then on cue, you can imagine what comes next.

Oh, you remember when the time was put back on the clock after it ran out? And on the last play, there was blatant holding? Response: I remember the spartans marching down the field and scoring a touchdown to win. Are you trying to tell me there weren't any other holding calls missed during the game? Why was Michigan's lead less than a touchdown?

You remember the time...he started to launch into more of this and asked "when the field had a crown to it"? He tried to start in on last year's game. "So are you telling me Michigan has never played in a game they actually lost?" How about the 10 of the last 14 games the Spartans have won? Is that a fluke? He folded at that point and this is one of those guys that truly will take on anyone about how he and the wolvies own Sparty.

******

I live in NYC and I often feel for those living in state that put up with this type of thing more often. He wanted me to go all the way to Fowlerville before turning back and I said I'd gone far enough and took the first off-ramp. He didn't even have the car washed or the inside cleaned to show it for sale. It was dirty inside, had sat since June and I couldn't even tell if the seats were stained or just dirty.

As with most of you, it's these content life situations with narcissistic front-running Walmart Wolverines (at least he said he attended) that make the desire to pull just as hard no matter the year or the ability.

Go Green!!! Spartan Dawgs Pound Green Pound.

Note that one of the producers of Black Spartans is under indictment in New York for obstructing justice and falsifying documents.




I invite you to follow me on Twitter @shanny4055

I generally use football outsiders for my stats because they take into account opponent, tempo, garbage time, etc. Not saying it’s perfect, but a lot better than yards against/for or points against/for. Anyway, here’s what it looks like as of today:

Overall. OFF. DEF.
MSU 54 53 58

UM 4 8 6

ILL 22 79 3

Indy 76 85 59

Rut 84 115 32

PSU 17 38 11

Have to win the Indy and Rutgers games to make a bowl (captain obvious). For the 3rd win, ILL seems like a much better bet than PSU because the ILL offense is so poorly ranked. I was surprised by their D though. Normally I would want bad weather but I think we have to throw the ball to win (big surprise, I know). Still not ruling out PSU. Man, I want a bowl. Travel to most bowl games and would hate to miss having a trip this year. Let’s get this done! Go green.

So for as long as I can remember I would wake up for Michigan day almost like a kid on Christmas. It had that sense of excitement to it. When I was younger most of my extended family were wolverines and there was only 3 of us Spartans. It didn't matter, we wore the colors and got ready for the game. Losing was never as painful as winning was exciting for us. We were almost always the underdogs. After I was married and graduated from MSU the tradition became I always host the parties on game day. My day starts with putting the Michigan state flag out on the pole as soon as I get up and about. Then my wife makes cookies. Spartan Cookies have a green S and the Michigan cookies have a Blue M with the Ghostbusters red circle on them. lol nothing wild compared to many I'm sure. It works out that there are a few more Spartans than wolverines at the party, but its loud and its still a lot of fun even after all these years. So what traditions do you have...

I hope that everyone out there enjoyed the bye week and had a stress-free weekend of college football. For those that live in Michigan, I hope that everyone enjoyed the beautiful weather. It was a perfect time to go visit one of the many venues that make up the Southeast Michigan Cider Mill Industrial Complex to perhaps enjoy some doughnuts and everyone’s favorite apple-based fall beverage.

Michigan State and Michigan were both a bye this week, and so both fan bases had a chance to get a full-week head start on trash talking. From what I can tell, there was not a whole lot brewing yet on that front. I am expecting a few things with a little higher proof by the time the game kicks off on Saturday. I believe in you, Spartan Nation.

For now, let’s jump right into the analysis of games this past weekend.

Week Eight Results​

Figure 1 below shows the results of all 52 games involving two FBS teams in Week Seven.


Figure 1: Results of Week Eight showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Texas Tech, Penn State, Fresno State, Ohio State, Army and Houston were the teams that significantly beat expectations this week. No team underachieved by more than 14 points relative to the opening spread, yet still won. The team closest to this dubious distinction was Kent State.

Table 1 below summarizes that games that ended in an upset in Week Eight in comparison to the picks made by the computers.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Eight based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.


I count a total of 18 upsets relative to the opening point spreads, which was slightly higher than predicted. Only two of the upsets came in games where the spread was over 10 points, and only five of the upsets involved Power Five teams.

Based on the spread, the biggest upset of the week was Florida International’s win over Charlotte (-14.5). The upsets with the biggest impact were Duke over Miami (FL.), Oklahoma State over Texas and LSU over Ole Miss.

My computer went 3-5 (38 percent) in upset picks this week, which helped to pull its year-to-date performance to over 30 percent for the year. The FPI went 2-1 (66 percent) to bring its year-to-date average up to 39 percent.

Table 2 below summarizes the results of the recommended picks against the spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks versus the spread in Week Eight.


It was slim pickings on this front this week with only three picks on the board and only one of those three picks wound up correct. By putting up a doughnut this week, my algorithm’s year-to-date performance just 12-28 (30 percent). The FPI went .500 this week to bring its tally to 24-32 (43 percent) year-to-date.

Table 3 below summarized the results of the curated point-total (over/under) picks for the week.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over / under" bets) in Week Eight.


The full set of my recommended picks went just 4-7 (36 percent) to bring the year-to-date performance to 74-63 (54 percent). My “lock” picks did a bit better at 4-3 (57 percent) for the week, which is good for 31-19 (62 percent) for the year.

Updated Big Ten Odds ​

A second glance at Table 1 reveals that none of the Big Ten games this week ended in an upset, including a home win by Wisconsin over Purdue. A second glance at Figure 1 also shows that both Penn State and Ohio State beat the spread by a convincing margin (even if Ohio State did this in surprisingly unimpressive manner).

The updated odds for the Big Ten race are shown below in Table 4.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Eight.


Ohio State’s impressive (on paper) performance against Iowa has vaulted the Buckeyes once again into first place in the Big Ten East. My simulations gives Ohio State a 55 percent chance to advance to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game. Michigan is still very much in the race with odds of 35 percent, while Penn State still has a prayer at 10 percent.

In the Big Ten West, Purdue’s loss in Madison nudged up the odds for the idle Illinois Fighting Ilini by a few percentage point up to 87 percent. The Boilermakers (12 percent odds to win the West) are the only other team with odds over one percent to claim the Big Ten West crown.

Michigan State’s remaining schedule and expected wins​

Table 5 below shows the updated win distribution matrix for the Big Ten following the action of Week Eight.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Eight.


Michigan State’s expected win total was unchanged over the bye week and remains at 4.71 with just a 16 percent chance to get to 6-6. As for the rest of the Big Ten’s bowl prospects, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Maryland and Illinois have already earned the necessary six wins.

Minnesota and Purdue are virtual shoo-ins to join them, while Iowa and Wisconsin’s odds are between 70 and 80 percent. In contrast, Rutgers, Indiana, Nebraska and Northwestern all have longer odds to make a bowl than do the Spartans.

Figure 2 below gives the detailed odds and projected point spreads for all of Michigan State’s remaining games. This week I have also included the values calculated prior to the bye week (following Week Seven) as an apples-to-apples comparison.


Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State’s remaining games, following Week Four and based on a 60,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation.

Basically, very little has changed in the last seven days. My projected spreads for the Michigan game and Illinois game improved slightly. But, the odds for the games against Rutgers and Penn State decreased slightly for the Spartans. The biggest change is for the projection of the Indiana game. In this case, the spread moved in Michigan State’s favor from -3.5 to -6.5.

Note also that my simulation’s projection of the point spread for the Michigan game (+21.5) is dead-on of the current line listed on DraftKings. How do you like them apples?

At the end of the day, the Spartans are in the same position as a week ago. Michigan State has two very winnable games at home in the form of Rutgers and Indiana and three very challenging road games (Michigan, Illinois and Penn State). In order to guarantee a bowl game, the Spartans need to find three more wins.

If we assume for a moment that Michigan State beats both Rutgers and Indiana, then only one more road win is needed. My current odds for the Spartans to win each of those individual game is between seven and 12 percent. But, the way that the math works out, the odds of Michigan State winning at least one of those three games is 25 percent.

National Overview​

As we do every week, let review the action that you might have missed while binging some fall treats this weekend.

Georgia and Kentucky had the week off and Tennessee easily defeated some dude named Martin, so the race is essentially unchanged in the SEC East. The defending champion Bulldogs (82 percent) still hold a commanding lead over Tennessee (17 percent) based on the results of my simulation.

In the SEC West, however, there were a couple of upsets they may add a little pumpkin spice to the race. First Texas A&M dropped a game at South Carolina and the Aggies are now not only out of the division race, they are also below .500 for the year. More importantly, LSU ran away from Mississippi late.

As a result, Alabama (who easily took care of Mississippi State), LSU and Ole Miss now all have a single loss in conference play. The Crimson Tide still own the best odds to win the West (64 percent), but Alabama still has road games remaining at LSU (19 percent) and Ole Miss (17 percent).

In Big 12 action, Oklahoma State rallied late to upset Texas, while TCU protected its home turf against Kansas State. As a result, the race in the Big 12 is still wide open. TCU is now alone in first place in the standing and my simulation agrees that the Horned Frogs have the best odds (52 percent) to advance to the Big 12 Championship game.

My math has Texas (49 percent) in second place, despite the Longhorns’ 3-2 record in conference play. Kansas State (45 percent) and Oklahoma State (28 percent) are both a game out of first place and still very much in the race.

In the ACC, Clemson essentially has both the Atlantic Division and the entire conference locked up following their comeback win over Syracuse. My computer gives the Tigers a 99 percent chance to win the division and a 75 percent chance to win the conference. In fact, my computer gives Clemson a 46 percent chance to run the table at 12-0. Idle North Carolina retains the best odds to win the Coastal Division (75 percent) and the opportunity to lose to face Clemson in the ACC Championship game.

Out west in Pac-12 action, USC (77 percent) and Utah (55 percent) have the best odds to advance to the Pac-12 Championship game, but both teams had a bye in Week Eight. Oregon (41 percent) beat UCLA (17 percent) in the only significant conference action. With the win by the Ducks, the Pac-12 is trending towards a three-team race for the top-two spots.

Finally, in Group of Five action, approximately 24 hours after I predicted that South Alabama would claim a spot in the New Year’s Six, the Jaguars went out and lost to Troy. In addition, Central Florida took a bad upset loss at East Carolina. As a result, the pool of candidates for the NY6 spot continues to get more and more shallow.

Right now 7-1 Tulane (34 percent) and 6-1 Cincinnati (13 percent) sit at the top of my Group of Five Leaderboard, but neither team has an impressive resume and my calculations suggest that neither team is likely to run the table. There is a solid chance that the Group of Five representative in the New Year’s Six will have at least two losses and may not even have a win over a Power Five team.

Against all odds I have reached the end for today. Until next time, have fun with rivalry week. Go State, beat the Skunk Bears!

Tucker said Msu practiced three days last week.

He said guys are rested and some guys getting back healthy.

He said he is proud of way his team responded against Wisconsin and blocked out the noise