Spartans bringing in a giant kid from St. Mike's in Toronto.

Jack Sparkes is a nearly 6-foot-8, 230-plus pound defenseman.

He's set to join the program for the 2023-24 season.

Has 4 goals and 4 assists in 15 games so far.

Good start to the weekend...

2-0 Spartans after 1.

Tanner Kelly & Dennis Cesana got MSU going - both goals happening inside the first 2 minutes

Shots 15-8 MSU

Game is on NBCSN for those interested.

Here is my commitment feature on Jacoby Windmon with some of the backstory about why he was so overlooked coming out of high school.

On Wednesday evening, Michigan State will officially open Big Ten conference play in basketball with a road game at Minnesota. Before the Spartans tip off, I wanted to do a deep dive into the entire Big Ten schedule in order to better understand what we can expect from the Spartans and from the Big Ten race overall.

The method that I use to perform this analysis is based heavily on efficiency margin data generated by Ken Pomeroy. In my opinion, “Kenpom” data is the gold standard of basketball data analytics. It correlates very well with point spreads and therefore the data can be used to generate win probabilities for any future basketball matchup. With this tool in hand, it is possible to simulate the results of the entire Big Ten regular season as well as the Big Ten Tournament.

Big Ten Regular Season Odds​

To start this analysis, let’s first take a look at how the 14 members of the Big Ten stack up according to the Kenpom efficiency margin data that I pulled a few days ago, just prior to the start of Big Ten season. Note that efficiency margin is defined as the point differential that a team is expected to have against an average Division 1 team in a game of 100 possessions. Also, note that for this entire analysis, the results of the first few Big Ten games that have occurred this week are not being considered.


Figure 1: Kenpom efficiency margin data for all 14 Big Ten team prior to the start of conference play.

Currently, Purdue grades out as clearly the best team in the conference. After the Boilermakers, there is a cluster of five teams, including Michigan State, that have an efficiency margin right around 20.0. After that, the quality of teams in the Big Ten trails off until we reach the bottom four teams in the conference (Penn State, Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota) who are all markedly weaker than the rest of the conference.

The data shown in Figure 1 is the core input to all of the analysis to follow. That said, this data should be taken with a grain of salt. This early in the season, Kenpom still seems to be biasing the data based on the assumed strengths of teams in the preseason.

For example, Kenpom had several Big Ten teams in his preseason top-10, including Michigan (No. 2), Illinois (No. 5), and Ohio State (No. 8). All three of these teams have struggled so far in 2021, and it does not appear that Kenpom’s analysis has quite caught up with this reality. As the season continues to play out, the predictions should become more accurate as that preseason biasing is phased out.

Based on the data shown in Figure 1 and the Big Ten schedule, it is possible to simulate the results of the regular season. As discussed above, the data above does carry with it some uncertainty. Fortunately, this uncertainty is quantifiable based on historical data, and I account for this variance in my simulation.

Table 1 below gives the result of my 100,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the full Big Ten regular season.

Table 1: Preseason Big Ten win probability matrix based on the results of a 100,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation which accounts for the known variance in team strength at this point in the season.


Based on this data, Purdue is expected to win the Big Ten by roughly three games, but second place appears to be up for grabs. As for Michigan State, the Spartans are expected to win right around 12 games in conference play. There is about a 60 percent chance that MSU will win between 10 and 14 games and a 20 percent chance of winning 15 games or more.

Table 2 below summarizes the odds for each team to win the Big Ten regular season title.

Table 2: Results of the full Big Ten season simulation showing the odds for each team to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the number of wins needed to do so.


As expected, Purdue has a clear edge in odds. Specifically, my simulation suggests that the Boilermakers have over a 56 percent chance to at least share the title. Ohio State and Iowa both graded out with a 12 percent chance, while Michigan’s and Michigan State’s odds are virtually identical at just over 10 percent. I will also note that the odds suggest that a conference record of at least 17-3 may be needed to hang a regular season banner this year.

Big Ten Tournament Simulation​

As a part of my simulation of the Big Ten regular season, it is also possible to calculate the seeding for the Big Ten Tournament as well as the results of the tournament in each scenario. Table 3 shows the current odds for each team to earn a given seed in the Big Ten Tournament.

Table 3: Big Ten Tournament Seed distribution matrix.


Obviously, Purdue is the clear favorite to earn the No. 1 seed, but after that, the field is pretty wide open. Most likely, the more important fight will be to secure one of the other tournament double byes that are given to the top-four seeds. Right now, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State and Illinois all look like strong candidates to make the top-four, but two of those teams will not make it. The Spartans currently project as the No. 5 seed.

As for the results of the Big Ten Tournament, those odds are shown below in Table 2.

Table 4: Odds for each team to advanced past each round of the Big Ten Tournament, based on the results of 100,000 Monte Carlo full season simulations and a calculation of the tournament odds in each scenario.


Purdue’s odds to win a tournament title (37 percent) are a bit lower than the odds to win a regular season title (56 percent). The Spartans’ odds to hang a tournament banner currently project at eight-and-a-half percent. I will note that the odds in Table 4 map almost exactly to the current Kenpom efficiency data and are therefore only as accurate as that data set.

Big Ten Strengths of Schedule​

While the current efficiency margin data has a very strong influence on the projected final results of the Big Ten season, it does not match perfectly. For example, Figure 1 suggests that Michigan is the second-best team in the conference, but Table 1 suggests that the Wolverines have only the fifth-highest number of expected wins. The reason for this difference is due to the unbalanced 20-game conference schedule.

Table 5 below summarizes the overall Big Ten schedule and highlights the games where two Big Ten opponents play each other only once. The cells highlighted in green are a home game only for the team listed in the row, while the cells highlighted in orange represent a road game only for the team listed in the row.

Table 5: 2021 Big Ten schedule matrix.


Based on this table, Michigan State does appear to have a fairly favorable schedule, based on the current Kenpom efficiency margins of each team. Most notably, the Spartans only face Purdue once, and that game will be played at home in the Breslin Center. In addition, Michigan State plays Iowa and Ohio State only once as well, although both of these games are on the road.

Over the years I have developed my own formula to quantify strength of schedule. In short, I use efficiency margin data to calculate the number of expected wins that an average Power Five team should get if it was to play each team’s schedule.

I also perform a second calculation where I attempt to correct for one quirk when it comes to comparing strengths of schedules among a group of teams in the same conference. Good teams tend to have easier schedules because they do not play themselves and vice versa for the weaker teams. Figure 2 below shows the results of my strength of schedule calculation for the 2021-2022 Big Ten season using both methods.


Figure 2: Big Ten conference strengths of schedule. The left panel shows the raw strength of schedule calculation. The right panel shows the adjusted values are correction for the strength of the team in question.

Figure 2 confirms that Michigan State does, in fact, appear to have a slight schedule advantage this year. The Spartans’ schedule currently ranks second-easiest behind Ohio State. A glance back at Table 5 shows us why. Ohio State plays Michigan twice this year, but the Buckeyes only play the other four teams currently projected in the upper tier of the conference once. This explains why Ohio State’s odds are slightly better than the other Big Ten teams with a similar efficiency margin.

Iowa has the third-easiest schedule based on this method. Illinois and Michigan, however, grade out as having schedules that are in the bottom half of the conference. Based on this analysis, MSU’s schedule is easier than Michigan’s schedule by about half of a game. As for Purdue, the raw strength of schedule data suggests that the Boilermakers’ schedule is relatively easy.

However, the right-side panel of Figure 2 shows that Purdue’s schedule is actually the toughest in the conference when the benefit of them not having to play themselves is removed. Illinois and Michigan have similarly tough schedules after this correction.

Michigan State Schedule Overview​

Finally, I would like to take a look at Michigan State’s schedule in some detail. Figure 3 gives the currently projected point spreads and victory probabilities for all 20 of the Spartan’s conference games.


Figure 3: Projected point spread and victory probabilities for Michigan State's 20 Big Ten conference games.

There are a few different ways to digest this data. As shown above in Table 1, the expected win total for Michigan State (i.e. the sum of the probabilities in Figure 3) is just under 12 wins. That said, Michigan State is also currently projected to be favored in 14 of the 20 conference games.

Of the games where MSU currently projects as an underdog (at Michigan, at Wisconsin, at Illinois, at Iowa, versus Purdue and at Ohio State) the projected point spread is three points or less in all of the games except the one against Purdue.

Figure 3 also gives a preview of the likely ebb and flow for the Spartans’ season. The front end of the schedule is fairly light. The Green and White are projected to be comfortable favorites in the two conference games played over the next week. Then, the first five games of January are fairly manageable as well, with the exception of road games at Northwestern and at Michigan.

The odds suggest that Michigan State should go at least 5-2 in this stretch to stay on target to win 12 games. If MSU has aspirations to challenge for the Big Ten Title (or at least a top-four finish), getting six, if not all seven wins in this stretch might be necessary.

In mid-January, the Spartans get a week off to prepare for a nasty stretch where they will play four-of-five games on the road, starting with a trip to Madison on Jan. 22 against Wisconsin. The road game at Rutgers is the easiest game in that stretch, as the rest of the games are near toss-ups. The Spartans need to win at least three of those games to stay on target.

On Feb. 9, Wisconsin plays the return game at the Breslin Center, which is the start of a slightly lighter four-game stretch, three of which are at home. Winning three of those four games would keep MSU on track.

This leaves just the final four games, three of which are fairly brutal. Over a span of nine days in late February and early March, the Spartans travel to Iowa, play Purdue at home and then travel to Ohio State. The season then ends on a softer note with a home game against Maryland. If Michigan State can just split those four final games, it would again keep MSU on track.

Based on the data that we have in early December, this is what Michigan State and Big Ten fans should expect from this year’s basketball season. That said, as the games are played and the data accumulates, the odds will change. I will be popping back in throughout the season to provide an update on these odds. Stay tuned and Go Green.

MSU split at Penn State this weekend...

MSU lost Friday 4-2 (Cole & Christian Krygier providing the goals).... DeRidder made 31 saves on 34 shots faced.


MSU rebounded on Saturday to win 4-3 .... Cesana, Lewandowski, Papp, and Davidson with the goals. Charleson made 50 saves on the night.

Everyone split this weekend - OSU/ND, UM/UMn

MSU heads to South Bend for a pair this weekend.

MSU sits just 3 points out of 3rd place (OSU) and 1 point behind Notre Dame for 4th. MSU is 6 ahead of Penn State for 4th (making Saturday's win big), and Wisconsin sits in last - 7 points behind MSU.

MSU is 4-4 in the conference, 9-6-1 overall.

MSU sits 20th in the Pairwise right now.

Great game but lost. Son had a great shot but the goalie made a huge save.
I do hate that building though. I’ve got my son hating UM pretty good. Before our game the Um guys were practicing. You can see the loads of talent. My son goes These guys are over rated. I laughed and said no.

Watching up close with no one there the star players all stayed on the ice 1 hour after practice working on their game with a handful of other guys. Berniers and Hughes went 1 on 1 and the puck moves were ridiculous. Power might as well be the jolly green giant. I told my son we now have to go to a MSU practice and see the speed and skill difference

Just saw anson carter on the Macy parade. Was pretty cool hockey themed float

Here is the Michigan State release:

Michigan State football coach Mel Tucker has signed a 10-year contract, pending approval by the Board of Trustees.

“The Board of Trustees fully supports a new contract for Coach Tucker,” said Dianne Byrum, chairperson of the MSU Board of Trustees. “We are very happy with his success at Michigan State University and the renewed excitement for our football program among the Spartan Community.”

“Mel Tucker has been an outstanding addition to our Spartan Athletic program,” said MSU President Samuel L. Stanley Jr., M.D. “In less than two years, his leadership has already resulted in a program competing for top honors, and I’m impressed by his intensity and drive. Spartan fans around the country are enjoying the success of this year’s football program and we look forward to many more successful seasons, competing at the highest levels under Coach Tucker.”


“The decision to extend Mel Tucker’s contract is not based on one year of results, but rather it’s an investment in a promising future for Spartan football,” said MSU Vice President and Director of Athletics Alan Haller. “Since his hire in February 2020, the program has experienced high levels of success in three key areas: student-athlete development - on and off the field, recruiting momentum and donor and alumni base engagement and support. Mel has brought an energy to this program which has benefitted not only our athletic department, but also the university and the surrounding community.”

Tucker’s contract includes non-performance related compensation of $9.5 million per year, including a $5.9 million base, $3.2 million in supplemental compensation for media and personal appearances, plus a $400,000 contingent annual bonus. The contract expires on January 15, 2032.



Tucker, a 25-year coaching veteran with championship experience, was named Michigan State University’s 25th head football coach on Feb. 12, 2020.

In just his second season with the Spartans, Tucker has led MSU to a 9-2 record and a No. 12 ranking in the College Football Playoff Top 25. The Spartans have been ranked in the Top 25 of the national polls for 10 consecutive weeks, including six in the Top 10. MSU’s seven-win turnaround this season from a year ago already ties a school record.



Tucker has been named to watch lists for National Coach of the Year by the Dodd Trophy and the Paul “Bear” Bryant Award. He garnered national coach of the week accolades by the Dodd Trophy and The Athletic following Michigan State’s 37-33 victory over No. 6 Michigan on Oct. 30, as he became the first Spartan coach to win his first two games against the Wolverines (27-24 victory at No. 13 Michigan on Oct. 31, 2020).



Four of Tucker’s 11 wins at Michigan State have come against AP Top 25 opponents (2021: No. 24 Miami and No. 6 Michigan; 2020: No. 11 Northwestern and No. 13 Michigan).



Tucker’s resume, which began as a graduate assistant at Michigan State under Nick Saban, has an impressive track record of success. The journey that led him back to East Lansing included a head coaching position at Colorado (2019), five seasons as a defensive coach in the Southeastern Conference (2000; 2015-18), 10 seasons in the NFL (2005-14), and four seasons at Ohio State (2001-04). He was a defensive coordinator in the NFL for seven seasons and 11 seasons overall in his coaching career.



In 160 games as a full-time coach in the FBS, Tucker’s teams have collected a 117-43 (.731) record, including 10 postseason bowl games (2000 Peach, 2002 Outback, 2003 Fiesta/BCS National Championship, 2004 Fiesta, 2004 Alamo, 2015 Cotton/CFP Semifinal, 2016 CFP/National Championship, 2016 Liberty, 2018 Rose/CFP Semifinal, 2018 CFP/National Championship), three conference championships, three national championship games and two national championships (2002 with Ohio State, 2015 with Alabama).

Tucker coached 160 games in the National Football League (64 with Cleveland, 64 with Jacksonville, 32 with Chicago).

Tucker and the No. 12 Spartans (9-2, 6-2 Big Ten) return to action Saturday, Nov. 27 to face Penn State at Spartan Stadium. The game will be televised on ABC beginning at 3:30 p.m.

The Pre-Snap Read: Michigan State vs Ohio State​

By Jim Comparoni
SpartanMag.com

Columbus, Ohio - Michigan State has been here before. As a program, as a people.

Not necessarily with these particular people - Payton Thorne, Jayden Reed, Kenneth Walker III, Xavier Henderson - but they’ve heard the stories and seen the film of upsets over Top 5, National Championship-seeking Ohio State in 1972, ’74, ’98, and 2013 and ’15.

Now, this group of Spartans has a chance to make history. Unlike the ’72, ’74 and ’98 Spartans, this year’s team is also a Top 10 unit with aspirations of championships, more similar to the ’13 and ’15 teams.

However, this year’s Spartans don’t have the experience, depth and physical maturity of the ’13 and ’15 teams as Mel Tucker is only two years into his reshuffling process.

Despite this being the biggest national-stage game in college football of the weekend, and a Round of 32 game of sorts in the College Football Playoff picture, no one is giving Michigan State a chance to win.

Ohio State’s offense is too strong, especially its pass defense. That matches up directly with MSU’s glaring weakness, its pass defense.

Michigan State will need Ohio State mistakes in order to stay competitive. But Ohio State doesn’t make many mistakes on offense.

Winning this game seems like a near-impossibility for Michigan State. Almost as impossible as starting this season 8-0, and being 9-1 with a shot at the College Football Playoff heading into the 11th game of the season.


FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST

Wednesday night at Hinkle Fieldhouse, I was talking to some people and they asked me what were MSU’s chances of beating Ohio State. I said Michigan State definitely COULD beat Ohio State. This is college football, and as long as you’re not the 2020 Crimson Tide or the 2019 LSU Tigers, most good teams have a shot against Top 5 teams. And I estimated that OSU would probably beat Michigan State 14 times if they played 15 times.

But then I studied the OSU vs Nebraska tape a little further, and I started liking MSU’s chances a bit more, mainly because some chinks in the OSU armor presented themselves. OSU still has the trump cards with those great WRs and a terrific QB. But I altered the unscientific BDI (balding dome index) and decided that if these teams played seven times, Michigan State would win once.

Changing from a 1 in 15 chance to a 1 in 7 chance seems like a big percentage shift in MSU’s favor. Like it was something positive and optimistic. But when doing the math, that’s still just a 14 percent chance of Michigan State victory.

I saw that one of the Vegas oddsmakers has Ohio State with a 96 percent chance of winning. I disagree with that. I’ll stick with 86 (1 in 7 chance) for OSU.

That’s supposed to make you feel better.


**


Ohio State has the best offense in the country. Three outstanding WRs, a very good TE, a rising star RB, and an excellent facilitator in QB C.J. Stroud.

Stroud had some shaky moments against Nebraska’s zone pressures. Michigan State ran a lot of zone pressures and zone blitzes last week against Maryland, and had some success with them on third down. Michigan State will do that again this week and OSU will have worked against it.

MSU’s pass defense has been consistently generous all season. But Michigan State has altered some of the subtleties of its pass defense from week to week. Michigan State has decent individual talent. The Spartans have given up big numbers but it’s not as if the talent is so bad that they are doomed to give up 400 yards passing every single week. It’s turned out that way, but it doesn’t have to stay that way. It’s likely to remain that way against OSU’s aerial assault, but a respectable performance from MSU’s pass defense could come at any time. Mark that down. The personnel is not that bad.

That being said, it’s almost a given that Stroud will throw for at least 375 in this game, and possibly more than 400.

But if MSU’s offense is possessing the ball, and finishing in the red zone, and if Michigan State is limiting OSU’s big plays, containing the run and stiffening in the red zone, then you can beat Ohio State even if you give up 400 yards through the air. The Michigan and Maryland scripts are examples of this on MSU’s behalf. And Oregon beat Ohio State while giving up 400-plus yards through the air and 600 yards of total offense.

But OSU is of course much better than Maryland, and possibly better than Michigan, and the Buckeyes are much better on defense than they were in the week two loss to Oregon.

The question is whether Michigan State can improve its pass defense at this late stage and resurrect a semblance of its pass rush that was so good in the first half of the season.

Ohio State fans were starting to get a little anxious about things after a pair of itchy wins against Penn State and Nebraska. Last week’s 59-31 win against Purdue settles the nerves a bit, and perhaps causes eyes to gaze toward Ann Arbor.

Fifty-five percent of fans responding to a Cleveland Plain Dealer poll are picking Michigan State +18 to cover against Ohio State. That’s not a huge thing, but Buckeyes fans are usually more confident than that. There is a level of concern about Ohio State’s defense and its red zone offense.

The fact that Michigan State is bringing in the Big Ten’s No. 2 scoring offense (in conference games), the Big Ten’s No. 2 offense in yards per play and the Big Ten’s No. 4-ranked red zone defense in TD percentage allowed (in conference games), and No. 10 in the nation, makes for an intriguing numbers matchup.

Those numbers, and MSU’s 9-1 record, and the presence of Heisman Trophy Candidate Kenneth Walker III, SHOULD snap Ohio State’s attention away from Ann Arbor and result in a battle-ready, revved up legion of Buckeyes for this particular assignment. You would think there would be zero sneak-up effect in MSU’s favor this weekend. If that’s the case, and Ryan Day - who has never lost a Big Ten game as head coach - has the Buckeyes properly-oiled, then MSU’s chances of victory will instantly drop a few pegs.

Those Michigan State numbers were amassed with guys like Jalen Nailor, Jarrett Horst and Walker doing things ranging from good to great. Nailor isn’t expected to play, after going down with a hand injury during the Michigan game. Horst isn’t expected to play, either. Walker nursed an ankle injury during the Maryland game. It’s been a recurring problem at times this year, despite Walker’s legend-in-the-making season. Don’t be surprised if Walker’s giddy-up is reduced this weekend from the start.

So, some of the elements which produced those impressive numbers might not be at MSU’s disposal.

Penn State is faster than Michigan State on defense, and was able to keep Ohio State contained in some regards.

Nebraska is much better at the linebacker level in pass defense than Michigan State. Nebraska has a slight edge over Michigan State in physicality up front on defense, too, especially with Simeon Barrow’s status uncertain.

The OSU-Oregon game was three months and a defensive coordinator ago. There isn’t much to cull from that game, aside from the work of Oregon’s quick, tireless offensive line. That unit was great that day.

MSU’s o-line has been pretty good this year, marking a major improvement from previous years. But it’s a group that isn’t up to Oregon’s level. However, this Michigan State o-line surprised me with the way it hammered Michigan for 200 yards rushing. Walker might not have all the RPMs he had on that day, but if Michigan State’s run game could do it against a Michigan run defense that is almost as good as Ohio State’s, then we shouldn’t count out this o-line from surprising us again, especially with four super-charged Ohio natives in the o-line playing group.

Can we pick and choose elements from these games, especially the Nebraska and Penn State, that are applicable to Michigan State in trying to find a path to victory for the Spartans?

We’ll try.

First of all, Ohio State was one or two bounces away from losing both of those games to Nebraska and Penn State.

Many of us see the inflated margins of victory in other games, and all the amazing highlights. But the fact is Nebraska had the ball, down six, with a chance to win in the final minutes, and had a chance to cover a sack fumble at midfield with two minutes to go, down six. A friendly bounce or a friend flag on a pass interference no-call and Ohio State would have been heels to the cliff in that game.

Penn State was down by 6 when it hit a WR on a wheel route for a 70-yard TD which was called back because the WR was out of bounds on his route. Ohio State might have rallied to win anyway, but let the record show that OSU was involved in a pair of even-matched, bare-knuckle scraps with the 3-7 Huskers and the 6-4 Nittany Lions.

As for a double-asterisk, we should also point out that in college football, you aren’t necessarily what your record says you are. I think we all agree Nebraska was better than Michigan State when they played in October, and might be better right now than the Spartans. As for Penn Stare, we’ll learn more next week .

However, Nebraska finds a way to beat itself. Michigan State hasn’t done much of that this year. That, and an explosive offense, and good red zone defense, and (usually) good special teams, has made Michigan State good enough to win nine times in 10 games. You think that’s easy? Ask the people in Gainesville and Austin what they would give for some of that secret sauce.


THE NEBRASKA EXAMPLE

If Michigan State is looking for reason to believe it can hang with the Buckeyes, the Nebraska game film should provide plenty of it.

The first thing Michigan State needs to do is avoid a 1980s Mike Tyson early knockout. Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue and Indiana were out of the game by the end of the first half.

Scores at the end of the first half

Ohio State 35, Maryland 10

Ohio State 44, Indiana 7

Ohio State 45, Purdue 17

Score at the end of the first quarter:

Ohio State 31, Rutgers 6

Ohio State doesn’t need help. Don’t fumble twice and shank a punt on your first four possessions like Purdue did.

The first goal is to survive the first half.

Clues to a path to victory in the first half as shown by Nebraska in the first half:

+ Gain first downs on offense. If you must punt, punt from midfield.

+ Get positive yards on first down via the run game, modest 4-yard gains are good. Nebraska did this. Michigan State has the ability to do this.

+ Play action passes to intermediate throws in the middle of the field, hooks and over routes and TE to the seam. OSU didn’t disguise its defense a lot vs Purdue and Nebraska. A poised QB like Thorne, if he has time, should be able to replicate some passing success OSU opponents have had over the middle. (OSU did disguise coverages and bring assorted pressures against Penn State. OSU pressured the QB, accumulated sacks, but also gave up more than 300 yards passing. So maybe they felt that wasn’t the best course of action. But they can and are willing to try to be aggressive and disguise coverages. Whether or not they do that against Thorne remains to be seen. If they stay static and telegraph their coverages like they did against Nebraska, Thorne could find a rhythm).

+ Need one explosive play to go your way in the first half, like Nebraska had. That’s not asking a lot. Just one favorable shot. Michigan State will try to get more. But just one can be enough in the first half, as Nebraska showed. (Maybe move the pocket to do so. More on that later).

+ Contain the OSU run game. (OSU rushed for only 90 yards on 30 carries for the game with a long gainer of 22 yards. Penn State also contained the ground game until late in the 3Q when RB Henderson broke loose for a game-changing 68-yarder).

+ Tackle on the catch to limit yards after the catch. OSU’s WRs are so dangerous after the catch, especially on routine-looking shallow crossers, hitches, option routes or bubbles. They are so explosive. And the QB gets it to them on time and on target. And downfield blocking is good. (Nebraska was pretty good at limiting yards after the catch, aside from ONE big play which got out for 75 yards on a Smith-Ngigba short hitch which turned into a long catch-and-run. That was a critical error by the Nebraska defense, or perhaps it’s 10-10 at halftime.

+ Zone pressures on third down. You don’t necessarily have to come with a five-man blitz, but the use of a zone pressure (four-man rush with someone coming from the LB level or secondary while a front-line player drops into coverage) seemed to work for Nebraska. Michigan State dabbled with this last week against Maryland on third down and had success with it. That was a good step for a pass defense searching for place to stand.

+ Get great coverage from your LBs (this might be the hardest thing for Michigan State to replicate from the Nebraska recipe).

+ Make your darn field goals (Nebraska did not, otherwise this would have been 17-13 at halftime).

+ Prevent the big one, and then make stops in the red zone. (Michigan State has shown it can do the latter if it can survive the former). OSU has had problems with red zone offense. OSU is obviously working on that area of its game and it wouldn’t be a shock if the Buckeyes suddenly became a red zone juggernaut. But as of now, it’s a maddening weakness for Ohio State. People are getting antsy about it. Force some field goals and hang in the game and The Horseshoe people will grumble. Grumble is good for Michigan State.


**


We’ll get back into the Nebraska example in a moment, but first, the tale of the tape.


Ohio State is 9-1.

Results:

W at Minnesota, 45-31
L vs Oregon, 35-28
W vs Tulsa, 41-20
W vs Akron, 59-7
W at Rutgers, 52-13
W vs Maryland, 66-17
W at Indiana, 54-7
W vs Penn State, 33-24
W at Nebraska, 26-17
W vs Purdue, 59-31


* QB C.J. Stroud’s passing yardage in each game:

294 vs Minnesota
484 vs Oregon
185 vs Tulsa
319 vs Akron
330 vs Rutgers
406 vs Maryland
266 vs Indiana
305 vs Penn State
405 vs Nebraska
361 vs Purdue

On the other side, Penn State’s Sean Clifford completed 35 of 52 passes for for 361 yards.

Nebraska passed for 248, rushed for 113.

Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell threw for 390 yards.

Oregon and Minnesota put up crazy numbers on the ground, but Ohio State changed defensive coordinators after those games and the Buckeyes have been decent in run defense since then.



THE STAT RANKINGS

Big Ten stat rankings (in conference games only).


Rush Offense Yards Per Carry
1. OSU 6.0
2. Michigan State 5.3

Rush Defense, Yards Allowed Per Carry
3. OSU 3.1
4. Michigan State 3.3

Yards Per Pass Attempt
8. OSU
9. Michigan State

Third Down Defense
11 OSU
12 Michigan State

Third Down Offense
1. OSU 53 pct
6 Michigan State 37 pct
(big difference there).


Scoring Defense
6. Ohio State (20 ppg)
8. Michigan State (23.3 ppg)

Sacks Allowed
1. OSU only 5 sacks in 7 big ten games
5. Michigan State (13)

Sacks By
1. Michigan State 23
2. Ohio State 22

Sacks in Overall Games
1. Ohio State 33
2. Michigan State 31

What points and questions do the stats raise?

On paper, Ohio State hasn’t faced a pass rush as good as MSU’s. However, MSU’s pass rush has hit a drought in recent weeks. Michigan State will have some stunts and pressures and probably some new overload looks installed for this game. Will any of it work? Will Jacob Panasiuk return to October form? Can Drew Beesley return to pre-injury form? Will Simeon Barrow play? Can he and Jacob Slade press the pocket like they did in the first half of the season? You’ll find out when I do.

Notice that MSU’s yards per pass attempt defense in Big Ten games isn’t all that bad (No. 9 in the Big Ten) for a unit that ranks dead last in the nation in total pass yards allowed.

That’s my main head scratcher about Michigan State. It’s not like they have cornerbacks who are hopelessly getting Beetlejuiced by wide receivers.

Michigan State held Maryland to less than 90 yards passing for the first 26 minutes of the game last week. Then, with a 27-7 lead, Michigan State went to a soft, two-deep zone for the Terps’ final drive of the half and they sawed through the Spartans in four plays, and suddenly it was 27-14 at halftime and Tagovailoa had found a rhythm.

Michigan State obviously isn’t good enough to stick mainly with a tough, Iowa-style zone and contain you that way (although the Spartans kind of did that at Miami). Michigan State obviously can’t go man-to-man and try to press and run with you all over the field (Michigan targeted safety Angelo Grose when the Spartans tried to do this on Oct. 30. Michigan State hasn’t used Grose in the slot since. He’s become a single-deep safety when Michigan State plays cover-one or cover-three. Henderson has been the guy who has come up into the slot area if and when Michigan State has called for safety deployment near the line of scrimmage for pass defense).

Tagavailoa ended up completing 29 of 48 passes for 350 yards.

Michigan State increased its blitz percentage (up to 42 percent in the game against the Terps).

Michigan State blitzed Purdue only 19 percent of the time. Nothing worked against Purdue. But Purdue was slightly less productive when Michigan State blitzed.

Purdue completed 76 percent of its passes against Michigan State when not blitzed and 63 percent when blitzed.

Pro Football Focus graded Purdue’s passing attack at 91.5 when not blitzed and 74.2 when blitzed.

So Michigan State ramped up its blitz frequency against Maryland, and had success on those occasions.

MSU’s zone pressures on third down seemed to help the Spartans’ struggling third down defense. Michigan State surprisingly held Maryland to 3 of 13 on third down.

A zone pressure is not regarded or recorded as a blitz, if only four pass rushers are rushing.

As for blitzes, Maryland completed only 39 percent of its passes when Michigan State blitzed (9 of 23) for 135 yards.

Maryland completed 71 percent of its passes (20 of 28) when Michigan State didn’t blitz.


(Note, PFF has Maryland with 51 pass attempts while the official book says 48. Maybe PFF has a different criteria for a pass attempt, maybe counting the intentional groundings as incompletions, I don’t know).

Anyway:

This doesn’t mean Michigan State should automatically blitz every opponent more often. But these are encouraging figures as Michigan State tries to figure out its pass defense woes.


**


Michigan State had only one sack against Maryland, but produced three intentional grounding penalties. Pro Football Focus credited Michigan State with 19 QB pressures (1 sack, 14 hurries, 4 QB hits).

Those hits, sacks and hurries came from an assortment of players.

Sack: Jeff Pietrowski.

QB Hits:
LB Noah Harvey (2)
CB Marqui Lowery
DE Tank Brown

QB Hurries:
DE Jacub Panasiuk (4)
DT Jacob Slade (2)
LB Cal Haladay (2)
DE Drew Jordan
DE Drew Beesley
DE Brandon Wright
DT Kyle King
S Xavier Henderson
LB Noah Harvey

Michigan State has been leaky in pass defense, but when the Spartan pass rush is right, it can get productivity from a wide variety of positions and levels. In theory, this could or should mess with a QB’s reads and confidence, but we haven’t seen it have an impact on pass defense between the 20-yard lines.

As for CJ Stroud, he has had equal success when blitzed or not blitzed.

For the year, he is completing 69 percent of his passes when not blitzed and 67 percent when blitzed.

The question is whether the blitzes are creating pressure.

Like most mortal QBs, his success rate is reduced when feeling pressure.

When under pressure he is completing 53 percent of his passes for the year (with 5 TDs and 2 INTs).

When kept clean, he is completing 72.8 percent with 25 TDs and 3 INTs.

[Payton Thorne is 70 percent when clean and way down to 40 percent when pressured.]

**

One other note about the Maryland/Tagovailoa sample.

True, he threw for 350 yards. That’s not good on Michigan State. Interestingly, he was just 4 of 8 on passes thrown 10 to 19 yards downfield, and was 3 of 7 on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield.

22 of his completions were thrown within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage, including eight which were completed behind the line of scrimmage. Cornerbacks weren’t getting beat on these plays. MSU’s underneath coverage needs to tighten up.


APPLES TO APPLES

Ohio State is pretty much better at every position, aside from safety, and the possible exception of RB.

Kenneth Walker III when healthy is probably better than OSU RB Treveyon Henderson, but don’t be surprised if Henderson ends up becoming a higher draft pick when it’s his turn.

When Slade and Barrow are right, Michigan State might be as good as Ohio State’s defensive tackles. Haskell Garrett is supposed to be great, but I thought he was a little mediocre against Oregon, and he was injured at mid-season. He’s supposed to be closer to up to speed now.

I wouldn’t trade Xavier Henderson for Ohio State safety Bryson Shaw.

Michigan State is also better at punter with Bryce Barringer.

**

THE OREGON GAME

Let’s shift gears way back to OSU’s lone loss. What the heck happened in the Oregon game?

Briefly:

Ohio State out-gained Oregon 612-505. Seriously, when has a team ever gained more than 600 yards in a football game and lost? OSU only had one turnover, and that was late in the game.

Oregon ran the ball, controlled the ball, controlled the game.

Oregon had leads of 21-7 and 28-14 in the third quarter, and 35-21 in the fourth quarter and never made a major mistake, and kept answering.

Oregon took a 21-7 lead on a 77-yard TD run by RB C.J. Verdell.

Ohio State made a gap error on that play with LB Teradja Mitchell (No. 3) and DT Taron Vincent (No. 6) both ending up the C-gap. No one was in the B-gap. Verdell blasted through. Safety Bryson Shaw didn’t look good in trying to tackle him in space and never put a hand on him.

I thought Oregon’s offensive line was QUICK and extremely well-conditioned. Oregon’s recruiting effort has been big on o-line procurement, with Ducks head coach Cristobal being a former o-line coach. And Oregon’s strength coach is one of the highest-paid in the nation. Those factors came together for this unit on this day and the Oregon o-line looked very, very good in September. They were quick, when getting out to the LB level on inside runs, or when pulling and winning the edge on outside zones or buck sweeps. Over and over, with the QB run threat sewn in. OSU got rooked on that day.

Oregon took a 35-21 lead with 10:15 left when OSU safety Bryson Shaw got turned inside-out on a split zone play-action fake. He left the TE uncovered and wide open heading to the end zone, with OSU so drunk with trying to stop the run.

Ballgame.

Ohio State tried some zone, mostly tried man-to-man, tried two-gapping, tried one-gapping, but quality control was poor on defense.

OSU coach Ryan Day fired his defensive coordinator after that game. OSU has played more zone since then. The run defense has improved dramatically, to the point that OSU’s run defense now is pretty good, but still not great.

***

My notes from that game at the time:

* Oregon had a better, more mobile, more varied offensive line. And better inside LBs than OSU.

* OSU LBs and safeties unsound at times in scheme and quality control. Oregon is the better-coached defense.

* Is there a better offensive guard in the country than No. 53 for Oregon? I can’t remember the last time an offensive guard had an impact on as many plays as he did in this game. Tireless.

* OSU wasn’t strong enough to two-gap on the defensive line, but they attempted it.

* LBs poor knack at two-gapping, jumping gaps, shuffle stacking.

* LBs and nickel sloppy in pass defense assignments whether it zone or man.

* OSU DT Haskell Garrett was not strong enough to two-gap.

* 14 Hickman screwed up a blitz/cover-three in the flat for a big third-and-11 conversion in the first half.

* Guys in coverage not picking up the tight end, getting caught staring at the QB. In man-to-man, two or three guys ignored the TE on a delayed release.

* CB and LB not executing a crack and replace on outside runs.



BACK TO THE NEBRASKA EXAMPLE

I could go over OSU’s individual personnel here, but you know who most of the guys are. And we’ll get to that.

I still think the OSU vs Nebraska sample is the most intriguing piece to analyze.

I’m going to go into a lot of play-by-play and scheme-by-scheme detail in the following paragraphs because the OSU vs Nebraska game represents a script that Michigan State is somewhat capable of replicating, if things bounce right. Stay with me.

No pundits, including myself, are giving Michigan State a chance to win this game. Chances are you have watched OSU a little bit this year, but mostly just seen their high margins of victory and amazing highlights. But OSU has not dominated every minute of every game since losing to Oregon.

The Buckeyes are still very much beatable, and there are a handful of teams in the Big Ten capable of beating them on a given day, including Michigan State, including Nebraska, including Penn State and including Purdue. Purdue had that chance last week, and vomited on their shoes. Just because you are capable of beating OSU on a given day doesn’t mean you’ll get it done when it’s your chance.

Now it’s MSU’s chance.

But first, let’s rewind to Nebraska’s chance:



WHAT NEBRASKA DID ON OFFENSE:

* Early in the game, the Huskers merely got first downs. That’s so important. Get first downs. Get to midfield, and then punt if you must.

Nebraska did that. The Huskers missed a field goal that would have given them a 3-0 lead, and then punted from midfield a couple of times. Next thing you know, it’s 0-0 in the second quarter and you’ve avoided the Mike Tyson early TKO.

Other than the missed field goal, the Huskers didn’t beat themselves, early on. That’s simple, but also difficult to do.

The Purdue Boilermakers beat themselves in the first half with a fumbled kickoff, a fumbled QB/RB exchange, and a shanked 12-yard punt, giving OSU a short field three times (and then having a gap error on defense for a 67-yard TD run).

Boom, it was 21-7 and OSU hadn’t stopped Purdue on three of their first five drives; Purdue stopped itself. Purdue’s first five drives went punt, TD, unforced fumble, punt, unforced fumble.

Boom, it’s 28-7.

* Getting back to the Nebraska game:

Nebraska took pretty good care of the ball, for a change.

Nebraska had only one turnover. OSU had two (Stroud threw two INTS. More on that later).

* On offense, Nebraska didn’t abandon the run. And then Nebraska had some success with play action pass WITH A HALF ROLL. No need to naked boot all over the place (although Michigan State does that reasonably well). Just do a half roll. Stay protected, but move the launch point.

With the half roll, Nebraska hit WR Toure with a 72-yard TD. He beat CB 12 Lathon Ransom in man-to-man (single safety deep). Nebraska ran a slant/post to the right side. Safety bit on the slant and left Ransom alone in green space against Toure.

One big play and Nebraska cut the lead to 17-10 for halftime.


WHAT DID NEBRASKA DO ON DEFENSE?

OSU didn’t score in the first quarter. That’s a news flash.

First drive: OSU turned it over on downs.

What happened?

- QB Stroud was stopped short on third-and-two speed option keeper on the opening drive at Nebraska. (not a great play call. Stroud isn’t fond of running the ball. And that’s part of the reason for OSU’s problems in the red zone. Unlike past great OSU teams, the QB run component is not a natural for him and this team).

If you see Stroud have an impact as a runner in this game, you’ll know it was a point of emphasis, and mark of improvement for the Buckeyes. But up to this point, it’s a soft spot and a sore spot.

* After the speed option stoppage, OSU went for it on fourth-and-one. They threw deep to TE Ruckert on a deep seam. Good ball, pass broken up by good LB coverage.

Linebacker pass coverage for Nebraska in this game was huge. That’s the part Michigan State can’t replicate right now.

Second OSU drive: INT near the red zone.

What happened?

- Stroud on a play action boot. Throwing on the run to Smith-Njigba on a comeback. INT by a Husker LB along the sideline. Nebraska with zone pressure (four man rush, LB rush, DE drop) and LBs matching up underneath.

Zone pressures, for whatever reason, had a little bit of success for Nebraska at just enough key moments to keep things competitive.

Third drive: OSU three and out.

What happened?

- Stroud missed Smith-Ngiba on a short out route, thrown at his feet.

- On third-and-six, Nebraska came with a four-man rush, a zone pressure (meaning a disguised player from the back seven joined the rush, but a d-lineman dropped into coverage). This muddies the picture for the QB and pass protection just a little bit while keeping the standard seven in pass defense. Nebraska played a cover-four zone. QB Stroud found no one open initially, was flushed out of the pocket and got rid of it out of bounds when a LB began converging on him from coverage.

OSU critics felt Stroud should have tried to beat the LB in space with his feet and try to run for first down yardage. Stroud said after the game he is not a runner, he’s a passer. But past OSU QBs - like Justin Fields, Braxton Miller, JT Barrett, Cardale Jones - might have picked up the third-and-short speed option earlier in the game, and would have at least tried to pick up this third-and-six on a scramble.

But Stroud threw it out of bounds. Do that against Michigan State, if the game is tight, and there might be boos.

Fourth OSU Drive:

* Ohio State drove, but Nebraska stiffened in the red zone, Stroud threw a couple of incompletions on second and third down and OSU settled for a field goal and a 3-0 lead in the 2Q.

Then Nebraska shanked a 13-yard punt (former Spartan Will Pryzstup). That gave OSU a short field at the 49-yard line. DO THEM NO FAVORS! Nebraska did them a favor.

Soon it was 10-0 (nice drive of RPOs, and counter runs, and a little sprint out TD pass to WR Olave on a short out).

* Then Nebraska drove and kicked a field goal. Cut it to 10-3. This was somewhat of an even game with 3 minutes to go in the first half. The shanked punt was a difference-maker, as was Nebraska’s missed field goal.

Then OSU on the first play of its next drive hit Smith-Ngigba with a 75-yard TD. It was just a simple hitch at 6 yards against cover-three. He caught it at a standstill, turned, made one miss and outran everyone down the sideline. He has special burst and top gears.

Suddenly it’s 17-3 and you have to fight off the ropes - which Nebraska did (more on that later).

But that’s OSU for you. You can play well, but you have a little breakdown or slippage anywhere, and they can race the distance on you in an instant. DO THEM NO FAVORS! TACKLE ON THE CATCH! LIMIT YARDS AFTER THE CATCH. GET FIRST DOWNS AND PUNT WELL!

So how do you limit yards after the catch? Bend-but-don’t-break zone is the best way to do it, but you’ll be surrendering first downs. Michigan State did it against Miami. The Hurricanes had precious few yards after the catch. Michigan State hasn’t played that soft in coverage recent weeks, and has paid for it (against Michigan, trying to play tighter coverages).

So what might Michigan State do? Mix it up. Disguise it. Some soft zone on some plays. Some zone pressures on other plays with a little less of a drop at the CB position at pre-snap. And mix in some man-to-man under disguise if possible.

Michigan State has done a lot of blitzing on third down. It’s up to OSU to recognize whether the blitzes are five- and six-man rushes with a single safety deep (and man-to-man), or if it’s a zone pressure which might look like a blitz for an instant, but becomes something more equipped to cover the shallow crosser which OSU loves so much.

If you can play man-to-man AND cover the shallow crosser WR (maybe with a man-drop d-lineman), maybe you can bait and switch and survive another round and take the game into the deep water.

This is all theoretical stuff. And everything looks good on the chalkboard. Everyone has a plan, as Tyson used to say, until they get hit in the mouth. OSU is going to be fully capable of hitting Michigan State in the mouth. Michigan State needs to duck that hook and dig to the body.

OSU Drive Four (vs Nebraska): FG, 3-0

OSU Drive Five (short field ) TD, 10-0

OSU Drive Six (1-play, 75-yard hitch and run to Smith-Ngigba, 17-3

OSU Drive Seven (three and out, Nebraska stopped the inside zone).

Halftime, OSU 17, Nebraska 10.

In the second half:

* Nebraska had some success early in the second half against Stroud, mixing in man-to-man for one play, then showing man-to-man at pre-snap on the next and instead playing cover-six zone. Nebraska got late pressure on him, almost a coverage sack, but he threw it away for an INC.

Michigan State is capable of changing pictures like that.

* Nebraska stopped OSU’s second drive of the second half. On third-and-nine, Nebraska played cover-four, with a fourth rusher added from the LB level as a zone pressure. Stroud found no one, kept looking and reading, holding on OG Paris Johnson. Punt. Nebraska down 20-10 with 5:30 left in the 3Q.

* OSU’s next drive stalled in the red zone. Third-and-two, Nebraska rushed five and went man-to-man. Nebraska didn’t send more than four on the pass rush very often, but saved one for this occasion in the red zone. That’s MSU’s style, too. OSU ran a little return route to Smith-Ngigba, but Stroud was inaccurate on the short pass. Field goal, 23-10 with 2:05 left in the third quarter.

Ohio State in control, but not out of danger. PLAY WELL IN THE RED ZONE on defense against an OSU offense that is strangely weak in the red zone.

* Then Nebraska QB Martinez found WR Toure again, this time in man-to-man. OSU did not disguise its man-to-man at pre-snap.

Toure got separation vs 12’s off coverage on an over route. Easy read for Martinez. Then 12 (Lathon Ransom) missed a tackle on the catch and Toure gained 34 more yards after that missed tackle (and a missed tackle by safety 17 Bryson) down to the 1-yard line.

Next play, Martinez keeper for a 1-yard TD and it was 23-17 going into the fourth quarter.

NOTE: No. 12 is not a starter. He’s a back-up. But he will get playing time. Attack him in the slot with Jayden Reed if and when you catch OSU in man-to-man.

**

So what did Nebraska do to get here?

1. Contained the OSU run.

2. Somewhat established the Nebraska run.

3. Got two big plays on offense (both against No. 12 Lathon Ransom).

4. Somewhat limited OSU’s big plays and forced them to try to score TDs in the red zone.

5. Played good defense in the red zone, forcing two field goals. Boom. 23-17.

(If Nebraska had gotten just a few more first downs at key junctures and better play from the punt team, OSU wouldn’t have had two short-field scoring drives. So it’s not like Nebraska was playing a perfect game).

Now this was done in front of a great crowd in Lincoln. Michigan State won’t benefit from that kind of juice on Saturday. Instead, OSU will get that fuel.

But still, you don’t have to be 2020 Alabama to hang with this Ohio State team. But you do need good linebacker pass coverage and I’m not sure Michigan State has that.


**


Fourth quarter vs Nebraska:

* After Nebraska cut it to 23-17, Stroud threw an ill-advised deep pass into coverage for an INT (against a zone pressure) on the first play of the 4Q with Ohio State losing momentum.

First play of Nebraska’s next drive, OSU went with a dime defense (six DBs) on first-and-10 for the first time in the game.

OSU one-gapped on the defensive front with six defenders against six blockers. This left OSU a gap short and too skewed to stop the pass. RB found that daylight for a 12-yard gain on a split zone run. Longest tailback run of the day for Nebraska, out near midfield and the upset sirens were officially sounded at this point.

**


Then OSU inexplicably stayed with the 4-1-6 defense rather than its base 4-2-5. They took a LB out of the game and replaced him with a 190-pound cornerback Williamson (No. 5).

Nebraska went to the ground for gains of 12, 9, 2, 17, 4, 3, 5 and 3 consecutively.

Nebraska had it third-and-four at the 16-yard line with 10:36 to play, threatening to take the lead. But Nebraska went to the air, threw an incompletion and missed another field goal. Scott Frost said a cuss word and wanted to kill the kicker.

Third-and-four? Frost would probably wish he had run it twice there. OSU was on its heels.

Why OSU went to the 4-1-6 I’ll never know.

But the script to victory against OSU was clear, and it doesn’t take Hudini magic or the ’85 Bears.

* On OSU’s next drive, the Buckeyes moved to the Nebraska 35-yard line. Nebraska went to cover-one/man-to-man and the OLB pressured Stroud as he tried a naked bootleg pass for the first time in the game. Nebraska happened to have the right defensive call, Stroud was pressured immediately, threw it away, was flagged for intentional grounding and a 9-yard loss. OSU punted three plays later.

* Nebraska had the ball back, down by 6, at its own 10-yard line, 6 minutes to go, and 90 yards away from the upset of the season.

Martinez gained 21 on a scramble (OSU dropped into cover four; Martinez with a half roll, and go).

Then Nebraska threw three incompletions. The last of which should have resulted in a pass interference flag.

* OSU then drove for a field goal and a 26-17 which pretty much put the game away.

But first, with OSU up by 6, OSU got away with a blatant hold on a counter gap run on a second-down for a Henderson gain of 11.

Later, on third-and-four at the OSU 40-yard line with 8:00 to play, Stroud hit Olave on a 6-yard rub play. Nebraska played a straight cover-four without a blitz or zone pressure.

Next play, Nebraska rushed a safety on a cover-three zone pressure, and OSU answered with an RPO pass to Smith-Ngigba for 19 yards.

But OSU did something stupid again.

On first-and-10 at the Nebraska 34-yard line with 2:01 to play, Ryan Day and OSU went to the air.

Left tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere gave up a sack on a rip move. Stroud fumbled the ball on the sack, but Ohio State’s center pounced on the loose ball after an 11-yard loss at the 45-yard line.

If Nebraska covers that fumble at the 45, down by 6, with 2 minutes to go … look out.

Two pass plays and 16 yards later, OSU hit a 46-yard field goal to go up 26-17 with 1:32 left and cinch the game.

But if pass interference had been called earlier, or maybe the holding penalty, or if that fumble had turned out differently, the landscape of the Big Ten and College Football Playoff might look different today.


OTHER SOLID OFFENSIVE PLAYS FOR NEBRASKA

+ Down 10-0, QB Martinez hit TE for about 25 yards on a seam route against a six-man rush (a rare blitz for OSU in this game).

+ Down 10-0, QB Martinez hit WR on a 16-yard hook. OSU showed zone. Nebraska with a play action half roll. WRs in tight in a condensed formation. Martinez could envision that route and throw at pre-snap with OSU not disguising anything.

* 26 yard over route against cover three. Four man rush, had time to throw.


THE STATS

QB Martinez was 16 of 31 for 248. Not great. Not bad. Thorne can do that, and more.

Nebraska rushed for 113 yards. RB Rahiim Johnson rushed for 62 yards.


OHIO STATE RUN DEFENSE VS K-9

In order to win this game, Michigan State almost certainly needs to establish the run.

How have other teams run the ball against OSU in recent weeks?

Purdue 19 attempts, 91 yards (4.8 per)
Purdue tailbacks 18-84 (4.6)
Longest run by a tailback: 11 yards.

Nebraska 34-113 (3.3)
Tailbacks 16-62 (3.9)
Longest run by a tailback: 12 yards.

Penn State 29-33 (1.1)
Tailbacks 21-42 (2.0)
Longest run by a tailback: 11 yards.

Indiana 37-48 (1.3)
Tailbacks 18-47 (2.6)
Longest run by a tailback: 10 yards.

Maryland 36-56 (1.6)
Tailbacks 26-119 (4.5)
Longest run by a tailback: 30 yards.

Rutgers 31-111 (3.6)
Tailbacks 12-57 (4.7)
Longest run by a tailback: 21 yards.

Minnesota rushed for 203 yards against OSU and Oregon rushed for 269. Then they changed coordinators and have been improving

But in the last six games, no team has rushed for more than 113 yards against Ohio State (and that was Nebraska).

Maryland’s tailbacks rushed for 119 yards, but more than 60 yards in losses due to sacks backed the team rushing numbers for the Terps to just 56 yards. But in terms of true tailback carries, the Terps did some damage at 4.5 per carry.

THE TAKEAWAY: Ohio State’s run defense is good, but not great. They have been trending better, now comes a good challenge from Michigan State.

Kenneth Walker III has been great at times this year. MSU’s run blocking has been mediocre at times and quite good at other times (see the Michigan game).

Maryland stuffed the box with an extra helmet to contain Walker. He had a hard-earned 140-plus yards against a defense that isn’t as fast or talented as Ohio State’s.

OSU isn’t likely to stack the box. They may think they can stop the run with the standard number, and keep the pass defense with its regular numbers. Of course, they could always go away from this and begin stacking the box. But I expect OSU to try to play it standard to begin with.


THE MUST LIST

(Aside from winning the turnover battle, protecting the QB, putting heat on the QB, establishing the run and stopping the run. Those are the weekly obvious things).

Aside from those, these are things Michigan State needs to do:

* Continue to play great defense in the red zone. Michigan State is No. 2 in TD pct allowed in the Big Ten and No. 8 in the country.

* But first, you need to make OSU try to score from the red zone, rather than 50 or 80 yards out. In other words, don’t give up the big play. That’s easier said than done, but in this game it is especially critical due to OSU’s shaky TD percentage in the red zone and MSU’s strangely strong red zone defense percentage. Make those two items match up.

Preventing big plays will do three things for Michigan State: 1. Obviously it will help on the scoreboard. 2. Play to your strengths and wage the war in the red zone. 3. If OSU has to go 8 or 10 or 12 plays to score, then that will run clock and shorten the game.

* No false start penalties, no first-and-15 gifts to the OSU defense. (Holding penalties aren’t good either, but some of those are forced by the defense. False starts are unforced, even with crowd noise, Michigan State needs to avoid them.) This won’t be easy. Crowd noise will be a factor. Michigan State hasn’t played in a truly loud stadium this year.

* Limit the yards after the catch. OSU is lethal with yards after the catch, especially on shallow crossing routes if they catch you in man-to-man. Easier said than done, but you need to be on those guys on the catch.

* Obviously Michigan State is going to need some explosive plays on offense. Michigan State has been able to grease-board its way to some surprise explosives this year at times. Michigan State will have some elements sewn in that they hope will create some quick strikes, if they get them in the right coverage they are looking for and perhaps a matchup advantage (like against 12 when he’s in the game at CB).

Nebraska was down 17-3 but stayed in it with a deep post vs cover-one. LBs bit on the run fake (establishing the run made the OSU LBs preoccupied with the run and they didn’t get a re-route on the deep post). OSU was aggressive in pass defense with man-to-man on all three WRs, two in press. (So you want to be aggressive? Okay, play press across the board with a single safety deep. That’s the opposite of bend-but-don’t-break. Turns out they broke on that play).

Nebraska got the deep shot. When the opportunities present themselves, Michigan State must connect. OSU’s pass rush is good, but it’s not as good as Michigan’s from an individual standpoint.

* Jay Johnson and Scottie Hazelton, please step forward. Johnson has been good this year, week-in and week-out. Hazelton has a great reputation and continues to work the wrenches. I’ve often said that in upset situations, we need to see players perform like we don’t know they can. In this game, Johnson and Hazelton need to step forward as rising coordinators and come up with some gems like we don’t know they can.

O-line coach Chris Kapilovic had some wrinkles against Michigan’s Bear front on Oct. 30. That’s the type of pixie dust that can’t be predicted, but is needed.



THE PENN STATE SAMPLE

* Penn State contained the run and hit hard on defense. They played fast on defense. They have good players. Sheesh.

* Penn State led 7-3 late in the first half, but gave up a deep shot TD on an over route for 38 yards, and it was 10-7, Buckeyes.

* PSU was answering with a good drive to the OSU 38-yard line, but OSU got a sack, fumble and 56-yard return for a TD and a 17-7 lead with 2:24 left in the first half.

* Penn State battled back to tie the game at 17-17 in the third quarter with QB Clifford working the middle of the zone with digs and in routes. OSU brought pressure, but PSU did a good job of playing keep away and featuring WR Dotson on possession routes.

* But on OSU’s first play of the ensuring drive, Stroud found Smith-Ngigba on a 6-yard option route hitch against a six-man blitz. And just like he did for the 75-yard TD at Nebraska, he turned and made two players miss and sprinted 58 yards to the PSU 15-yard line.

* OSU’s red zone offense failed on fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line with a false start by RB Henderson. Had to kick a field goal and went up 20-17. Prior to that, OSU was hammering the run but PSU stood tough enough to get it to fourth-and-goal at the 1.

* Game changer: On the first play of a drive late in the third quarter, Henderson raced 68 yards on an inside zone. A Penn State defensive tackle got his shoulders turned and didn’t properly fit the gap. Two plays later it was 27-17 with 3:30 left in the third quarter.

* PSU answered with a balanced TD drive, carving up the zone, and pounding it across the goal line with a 1-yard TD run.

* At this point, OSU led 27-23, but Penn State seemed like the more consistent team. The difference was the scoop-and-score and Henderson’s 58-yard run. OSU was fortunate they weren’t trailing 23-13 heading into the fourth quarter.

* OSU red zone offense then failed again. On third-and-seven, PSU sent a six-man rush with man-to-man in the back. OSU went to the shallow crossing route to Smith-Ngigba for a completion but PSU had the speed in the secondary to tackle him. Not sure Michigan State has that kind of speed. PSU is fast back there.

OSU went for it on fourth down. Stroud threw INC for Olave on a slot fade. Olave was wide open due to a PSU coverage bust but Stroud just kind of threw it into the ground. Maybe a WR/QB miscommunication. Strange one with 12:51 left in the game and OSU up 27-24.

* Three plays later, PSU threw an INT. OSU defensive end Tyreke Smith with a QB hit as part of a six-man rush. Clifford went deep, left it way short. INT by OSU CB Cam Brown returned to the PSU 28-yard line.

Red zone offense failed again. Tunnel screen, a stuffed run, and then an INC back shoulder fade attempt for Wilson.

Field goal made it 30-24 with 7:16 left.

* PSU then hit WR for a 70-yard TD on a wheel but went out of bounds on the route and it was called back for illegal touching.

* OSU regained possession and drove for a clock-melting, game-cinching late field goal.

THE TAKEAWAY: Penn State was surprisingly excellent at times in this game. The game flipped on one or two plays.

Ohio State is good, but they aren’t great. Not yet. Not sure they will get there. Not sure they will beat Michigan. And if they aren’t careful, they could get in trouble against Michigan State.


THINGS TO KNOW:

* Sometimes OSU might get away from the run game a little too much.

* 13 passes on first 18 plays vs Nebraska.

That being said, OSU struggled to run the ball in the first half against Penn State. On OSU’s first nine rushes, the Buckeyes netted only 8 yards.

Michigan State has a good run defense. Probably not as good as Penn State’s. Not sure Michigan State can replicate that. PSU was hitting HARD.

* In the pass game, OSU likes to use the shallow crosser, the mesh, especially against man to man on third down. And when they catch it, they have great speed after the catch.

* When they cross the 50-yard line, they like to take a shot deep.

* OSU’s third down conversion percentage is ridiculously good. No. 1 in the Big Ten by a mile at 53 percent.

* It’s so hard to stop 11 Smith-Ngiba on the short hitch route from the slot, especially on third down. He runs to the sticks, turns on a dime and Stroud connects with him. Slot coverage has to respect his ability to beat you deep, then he shuts it down with a sticks route.

* Against Purdue, OSU attacked with the pass to the perimeter more than usual. Hit some bubbles.

Then faked a bubble and released 11 Smith-Injigba as the inside WR of a bunch downfield, and was left wide open.

* Ryan Day is a terrific play designer and play caller. I give OSU grief for going with a 4-1-6 in the fourth quarter against Nebraska, and for passing on first-and-10 with a 6-point lead at midfield with 2 minutes to go. But he has his job, thanks to Urban Meyer, because he impressed Meyer with his offensive brainwork.

As good as OSU’s QB, RB, WRs, TE and O-line are, they also have a good chessplayer designing the thing.



OHIO STATE PERSONNEL

QB 7 CJ STROUD (6-3, 218, R-Fr., Rancho Cucamonga, Calif.)

* Averaging 337 yards passing per game at 68.8 pct completions.
* 30 TDs 5 INTs.
* Went 151 straight throws without an INT prior to the Nebraska game three weeks ago.

* Is excellent with the touch pass over the linebackers and in front of, or between, the safeties.

++ One of the better plays I’ve seen him make came with :14 seconds left in the third quarter at Nebraska. Nebraska had just scored to cut the lead to 23-17 and Memorial Stadium was going ape crap.

On second-and-five, OSU motioned a receiver to create a three-receiver bunch. Nebraska played cover-four zone.

Two of those receivers ran directly at one of the cornerbacks. Cornerback had to split the difference between the two as they approached him. Neither receiver broke off their route until several beats into the route. Stroud threw before the inside WR (Smith-Ngigba) broke it off to the inside. As he made his break, the ball was already halfway to him and into his chest. Made the catch against good coverage. Gain of 22. Good coverage, good route concept, good throw. Hushed the crowd for a moment.

Just an example of the concepts they can put on you, and the comfort level the QB has with those WRs. That was Ryan Day stuff and Stroud stuff.

* He doesn’t like to run the ball. But he carried for a gain of 6 on a third-and-four zone read option in the red zone early in the 2Q at Nebraska with the score tied 0-0. (He also had a 48-yard TD run against Michigan State last year in mop-up duty off a zone read keeper). He isn’t slow. But he would rather not run.

Opponents have blitzed him 31 percent of the time. There isn’t a big difference in his completion percentage when blitzed (67.4) and not blitzed (69.1).

He has a 14-4 TD-INT ratio when not blitzed.

When blitzed, he has a cleaner 16-1 ratio.

But, like all QBs, he is affected when pressured. Opponents have pressured him only 23 percent of his dropbacks.

His completion percentage drops from 72.8 in a clean pocket to 53.0 when pressured.

His TD-INT ratio is 25-3 when clean, and 5-2 when pressured.

What do those numbers mean? Well, let’s compare it to someone you know, Payton Thorne.

Michigan State has kept Thorne in a clean pocket 72 percent of the time. He has been pressured 27.8 percent of the time.

His TD-INT ratio in a clean pocket is 16-4.

When pressured, the ratio is 5-4.

With a clean pocket, he is completing 69.5 percent of his passes. When pressured, he is only at 41.5 percent completions.

Opponents have blitzed him 34.4 percent of the time, which is a higher blitz rate than Stroud has faced.

By the way, Thorne’s completion percentage drops from 65.2 to 59.4 when blitzed.

His TD/INT ratio is 12-4 when not blitzed and 9-4 when blitzed.

* Had some shaky decisions and inaccurate passes early in the season against Minnesota and Tulsa. Was much cleaner against Rutgers as OSU incorporated more quick-game and shorter throws.


EXAMPLES

* Just because you’ve decided to blitz Stroud doesn’t mean you will succeed. On fourth-and-six in the red zone, Oregon blitzed him (seven man rush, no safety help) and Stroud found Smith-Ngibga on a shallow crosser for a 14-yard TD. The middle defender didn’t have a chance of chasing him down and the pass rush didn’t come close to getting home.

STROUD ERRORS

- Stroud hasn’t had many. Situation, down and distance need to be a factor. OSU’s lone turnover against Oregon came when OSU was backed into a desperate situation. Trailing 35-28, facing third-and-18 with 2:51 left, it was time for Stroud to take a risk.

Oregon brought a three-man rush and covered with eight. Deep cover-three with five defenders crowding the intermediate lanes. Stroud found no one open initially, was flushed from the pocket, and forced a pass down the sideline, on a scramble-rules release to WR Olave. Olave was originally running a shallow crossing route, but turned it upfield when Stroud began to scramble. A good throw would have been completed for about 15 yards, but Stroud, throwing on the run, missed high for the INT.

- Was baited into what should have been a LB INT in the 1q at Nebraska, stared it down vs cover-four zone pressure

- INT in the first quarter at Nebraska. Play acton boot. throw on the run to Smith-Inigba on a comeback. INT by LB along the sideline. Nebraska with zone pressure (four man rush, LB rush, DE drop) and LBs matching up underneath.

- His second INT at Nebraska. First play of the fourth quarter. OSU was up 23-17.

Stroud threw deep into double coverage. An ill-advised decision on first-and-10.

Nebraska was in cover-four. Once again, they dropped the stand-up DE into coverage and rushed a LB. This created a zone pressure (not a zone blitz. It’s a zone blitz if five or more players rush. When it’s a four-man rush, it’s a “pressure” in football parlance). This test the communication and identification skills of the OL a little bit. The OSU center and left guard gave up pressure to a LB/DE u-stunt. Stroud was flushed and let it fly. Error.

* He attempted 54 passes vs Nebraska. Second most in a game in OSU history.

* Former Alabama QB and commentator Greg McElroy on Stroud: “(The Nebraska game) wasn’t his finest hour. I don’t think he saw the field very well. I thought he got a little locked in on WRs and tried to push it tried to take a few too many chances.”

* What makes him good? He has time to throw, you have to honor the running game, they have three great receivers and a head coach/offensive coordinator who specializes in play design and play calling. Stroud just has to make reads and throw accurate passes; he does both well.


WIDE RECEIVERS

* OSU is on pace to having three 1,000-yard receivers.


WR 11 JACKSON SMITH-NJIGBA (6-0, 1908, Soph., Rockwall, Texas)

* 59 catches on the year, averaging 102.7 receiving yards per game.

* 5 TDs.

* Great feel as a slot WR.

* Great route runner, take off and then stops on a dime, a sports car. Makes an 8-yard hitch look like an art form.

* 6 catches vs PSU.

* 6 catches vs Indiana.

* School-record 15 catches for 240 yards against Nebraska.


WR 2 CHRIS OLAVE (6-1, 188, Sr., San Ysidro, Calif.)
* 51 catches, 70.8 yards receiving per game.

* 11 TDs.

* McElroy: “I’d like to see him tighten up his route running just a hair. he’s so smooth.”
* 3 catches 44 yards and a TD vs Penn State.

+ OSU was trailing Penn State 7-3 late in the first half when Stroud found Olave for a 38-yard TD on a deep over route vs cover-three zone.

OSU’s Stroud was under center for this play and threw after a play-action fake to Henderson. Penn State blitzed five. PSU had been stopping the run up to that point in the game, physical up front, and applying consistent pressure.

WR GARRETT WILSON (6-0, 192, Jr., Austin, Texas)

* 53 catches, averaging 90.3 yards receiving per game.
* 9 TDs.
* Great explosiveness

* Missed the Nebraska game.
+ Dangerous on the bubble screen, very good after the catch. Always a threat on reverses.

* Back-up WRs Julian Fleming and Marvin Harrison Jr would be stars for most other teams. They played well in Wilson’s absence at Nebraska.


RUNNING BACKS

* Henderson and Miyan Williams are starting to be described as the best 1-2 running back tandem in the country. Michigan State has already faced one such described tandem in Corum and Haskins of Michigan, and the Spartans controlled them.

RB 32 TREYEVYON HENDERSON (5-10, 215, Fr., Hopewell, Va.)

* 1,028 yards rushing, 7.3 per carry, 102.8 per game.

* 152 yards rushing against Penn State. But he had only 8 yards on his first nine carries. He went into that game leading the FBS in yards per carry at 8.8.

+ Showed good hands with a short reception in the flat for a first down on the opening drive at Nebraska. Good fundamentals and hand selection, catching it out away from his body.

* Was somewhat held to 92 yards on 21 carries at Nebraska.


RB Miyan Williams (5-8, 225, R-Fr., Cincinnati)

* Tough bowling ball type of runner.
* Is No. 1 in the nation in average yards per carry after contact, around 5 yards after contact per carry.
* 436 yards rushing, 7.5 per carry, 62.3 per game.

RB 33 Master Teague (5-11, 225, Jr., Murfreesboro, Tenn.)
* Former starter.
* Injured, missed the Purdue game.
* 260 yards on the year, 5.7 per carry, 43.3 per game.

TIGHT END

TE 88 JEREMY RUCKERT (6-5, 250, Sr., Lindenhurst, NY)

* 22 catches, 3 TDs, averaging 28.4 receiving yards per game with a long of 30 yards.
* Terrific TE, one of the best in the country, but he doesn’t get the ball all that much due to the dominance of the WRs and tailback.
* OSU went to Ruckert on deep seam on fourth-and-one at Nebraska, good ball, pass broken up by good LB coverage.
- Allowed a QB pressure to an OLB on an arm-over move in the second quarter against Nebraska (Stroud was hurried and threw deep after being flushed, flag for pass interference while trying to cover WR 2 Olave).

- Had the ball stripped from him for a fumble on the opening drive against Penn State.

+ Lined up as a wide out and Stroud hit him with a skinny post for about 25 yards during OSU’s game-clinching drive in the final minutes against Penn State.


OFFENSIVE LINE

* The o-line is massive and strong, but I thought they became sloppy as the game wore on at Nebraska. Wondering about their conditioning level.

LT 78 NICHOLAS PETIT-FRERE (6-5, 315, Jr., Tampa)
- Allowed pressure on an inside rip move on third-and-seven for a QB hit in the 1Q against Penn State.

- Gave up a sack on a rip move late in the Nebraska game, almost served as a turning point in the game, but OSU recovered.

LG 75 THAYER MUNFORD (6-6, 320, Sr., Cincinnati)
* moved to right tackle vs Nebraska because Jones wasn’t feeling well.
* Venerable player.


(55 Matt Jones, 6-4, 310, Jr., Brooklyn, NY)
* Started against Nebraska and Akron.
+ Can pull, turn the corner and get into his target. Mobile.
- Allowed a QB pressure to Nebraska on a third-and-four in the first quarter, beaten by a chop and swim by Nebraska DT Stille.

C 53 LUKE WYPLER (6-3, 300, R-Fr., Montvale, NJ)
* Started every game.


RG 77 PARIS JOHNSON (6-6, 315, Soph., Cincinnati)
+ Quick to the LB level.
- Beaten by a surprise one-gapping move on third-and-three late in the 1H against Nebraska on an inside zone run attempt. Punt.
- Beaten by a surprise shoulder club and arm-over for a one-gap move for a TFL on a draw play in the 3Q at Nebraska.


RT 79 DAWAND JONES (6-8, 360, Jr., Indianapolis)

* Looked mobile and kind of awesome while combining with 77 on RG/RT double team on an inside zone for about 8 yards in the 2Q against Nebraska.



OHIO STATE DEFENSE


RUSHING DEFENSE

I heard podcaster and former OSU assistant Zach Smith comment on Buckeye tackling. He said OSU is averaging 11.3 missed tackles per game. He compared that to past OSU teams:

2019: 6.9
2018: 7.1
2017: 5.8
2016: 6.3
2015: 6.5
2014: 7.4

They’re not happy with the tackling in Columbus.

* OSU had four sacks 8 TFLs, 3 takeaways vs Penn State.

* In the first two games: OSU allowed 456 ypg, 53 pct third down, 0 INTs, 33 points per game.

* In the next 7 games, after changing coordinators, allowed an average of 327 yards, 39 pct on third down, 11 INTs, 15 points per game.

* OSU dropped eight defenders into pass coverage on two third down stoppages in the 1Q against Purdue. Probably not something they will do against Michigan State.

* Rushing yards allowed: First two games 221 ypg. Next six game, 66 ypg.

* Matt Barnes is the new defensive coordinator.

* He has been at OSU since 2019 when he arrived as an assistant secondary coach.

* Prior to that he was a linebackers coach at Maryland from 2016-18. He came up with DJ Durkin. Was a G.A. for Durkin at Florida and an analyst for Durkin at Michigan, and then Durkin took him with him during his short stint at Maryland.

* OSU has been playing more zone since Barnes took over.

* They have three true freshmen playing in the two deep in the front seven


PASS RUSH

* OSU leads the Big Ten in sacks.

* Didn’t bring a lot of fancy blitzes and pressures against Purdue and Nebraska, but did against Penn State. They were kind of ferocious against PSU, but still gave up well over 300 yards passing.

* Had only one QB pressure on Purdue’s O’Connell.

* 5 sacks against Maryland, 5 sacks against Indiana, 4 sacks against Penn State, 5 sacks against Nebraska.

* 0 sacks against Purdue. According to Pro Football Focus, OSU had only one pressure on the day, no sacks, no QB hits.

* OSU blitzed more against PSU than against Nebraska.


DEFENSIVE LINE

* Very good depth. Good d-line. Not great.

DE 9 ZACH HARRISON (6-6, 272, Jr., Lewis Center, Ohio).

+ Strip sack key turning point in victory over Minnesota on opening night.
* Averages 2.7 QB pressures per game.
* Good, tall, rangy, athletic. Good d-end, but not a Bosa type of guy or a Chase Young type. Good one. Not as good as Michigan’s d-ends.

DE 11 TYREKE SMITH (6-3, 265, Sr., Cleveland)
* Runs well sideline to sideline.
* Averages 4 QB pressures per game. Best on the team.
+ Good sack vs Nebraska late in the first half. Set up to the LT with a high-speed head-and-shoulder shimmy, then transitioned to a bull rush at the junction point. LT knocked off balance. Smith disengage, sack. Quality individual pass rush right there.
+ Sack late in the 1H against Penn State resulting in a scoop and score and 17-7 lead vs PSU. It was part of a six-man rush.


DE 8 JAVONTAE JEAN-BAPTISE (6-5, 255, Jr., Spring Valley, NY)
* 1.5 sacks on the year. 3 QB hurries.
* Looks great getting off the bus. Decent player.

DE 33 Jack Sawyer (6-4, 250, Fr., Pickerington, Ohio)
+ Pretty strong with the bull rush for a sack vs Nebraka.
* Young guy, very good future for him. Former No. 1 player in Ohio.


DT 92 HASKELL GARRETT (6-2, 300, Sr., Las Vegas)

* Suffered leg injury at Maryland on Oct. 9.
* 6 TFLs
* Three sacks vs Akron
* 6.5 career sacks.
* CBS Sports All-America last year.
* Played 28 snaps against Purdue.
* Was an All-America candidate this year. I didn’t think he was all that good against Oregon. Now trying to coe back from mid-season injury.


DT 6 Taron Vincent (6-2, 305, Jr., Baltimore, Md.0
- Doesn’t anchor well vs double teams. Allowed movement to the C/LG vs Nebraska on a first quarter run vs Nebraska.
+ TFL on third-and-2 early in the Nebraska game, with a one-gap swim after two-gapping on all the previous plays.
- Got stalemated by Nebraska LG 63 an inside zone for about 6 yards in the 2Q. Gave up a half yard and didn’t disengage very well.


DT 86 Jerron Cage (6-2, 305, Sr., Cincinnati)
* Can be disruptive when one-gapping.


DT 52 Antwuan Jackson, 6-2, 300, Sr., Ellenwood, Ga.
- Gave up a yard of movement to Nebraska’s RG on a down block on an inside zone early in the game, gain of 5 for the tailback.


DT 91 Tyleik Williams (6-3, 315, Fr., Manassas, Va.)
* Had two sacks and six tackles against Akron.
* Hasn’t done much of late. Some suspect he has hit a freshman wall, but he looks like a star of the future and could rebound with big plays at any moment.


LINEBACKERS
* Were not good against Oregon. Have come a long way since then.

WLB 3 TERADJA MITCHELL (6-2, 239, Sr., Virginia Beach)

* Hard charger. Denicos Allen-type, but taller.
* Team-high 4.5 TFLs.
- Looked a little stiff on a third-and-long stunt rush vs Nebraska in the first half. Had a chance to get to the QB untouched but QB Martinez faked him to the ground.



MLB 30 CODY SIMON (6-2, 233, Soph., Jersey City, NJ)

* Quick feet when reading and reacting.
* Looked like a catcher when running sideline to sideline, not winning collisions in the 1Q against Nebraska. Catching and trying to olé blocks instead of defeating them.
* Second on team in tackles. But only 2 TFLs. 1 sack.


LB 22 STEELE CHAMBERS (6-1, 225, Soph., Roswell, Ga.)

* Former RB.
* INT late in the Nebraska game.
- Missed a tackle on a 9-yard run at Nebraska on a counter gap play.
* 3.5 TFLs on the year. 1 sack.

LB 35 Tommy Eichenberg (6-2, 235, Soph., Cleveland)
* Fifth on the team in tackles as a back-up LB.
* They play a lot of second-stringers. Not much dropoff.
* 3 TFLs.



BULLET SLOT LB/S

CS 14 RONNIE HICKMAN (6-1, 205, Soph., Wayne NJ)
* 82 tackles leads the team.
* 1 TFL, 1 sack.
* Two INTs.
* Pick six vs Akron.
* He’s the slot CB/LB type of guy. Darius Snow role.


DEFENSIVE BACKS

CB/S 12 LATHAN RANSOM (6-1, 205, Soph., Tucson, Ariz.)
* Serves as the nickel/slot. Listed as a safety
- Struggled against Nebraska, getting beat for two big plays, one for a 75-yard TD. Both plays, he was being used as a cover safety in the slot, like a slot cornerback. So what can Michigan State do about this? If you catch OSU in man-to-man at pre-snap (they won’t disguise it), and get Jayden Reed on him (No. 1 vs No. 12 in the slot), go Naperville playground on his ass. Thorne and Reed don’t even have to draw it up in the dirt. They just see something the same way and nod and do it.


CS 5 MARCUS WILLIAMSON (5-10, Sr., Westerville, Ohio/IMG Academy)
* Started all eight games last year after injuries plagued him earlier in his career.
* They put him in place of 12 Ransom in the fourth quarter against Nebraska, going with a pure nickel corner near the slot rather than a hybrid in the slot. Nebraska ran the ball against it for gains of 12, 9, 2, 17, 4 and 3 on consecutive plays.
+ Forced a fumble on a run blitz on the first OSU defensive play of the game against Penn State.


CB 29 DENZEL BURKE, 6-1, 192, Fr., Scottsdale, Ariz.
* Next great OSU DB.
* Has started every game.
* First true freshman to start season opener since Andy Katzenmoyer in 1996.
* 9 passes defenses, which ranks No. 20 in the country
+ Nebraska tried to test him deep in press coverage in the 2Q. He stacked the WR, good with hand fighting, had him covered, INC.


(CB 26 Cam Brown, 6-0, 190, Jr. , St. Louis)
* Has the second-best completion percentage-against in the nation.
* INT vs Penn State.
* Three career starts.


S 17 BRYSON SHAW (6-0, 195, Soph., Eldersburg, Md.)

* Shaky back-line defender as a tackler against Oregon and Nebraska.


SPECIAL TEAMS

* Emeka Egbuka is the top returner in the country at 32.1. He doesn’t have a TD to inflate his average. He consistently excellent. His long for the year is 67 yards.

* Noah Ruggles, is 16-of-16 on field goals for OSU.

* Garrett Wilson 4.9 average on punt returns, but packs serious big play threat. Smith-Njigba has returned punts too.

* OSU only punts the ball 2.4 times per game, the second least in the country (trailing only Oklahoma).

* Ohio State’s net punter isn’t great. OSU ranks No. 88 in the country in net punting.

* Michigan State averages 48.2 yards per punt. Michigan State also leads the Big Ten in punt return average, thanks to two returns for TDs.


ADD IT ALL UP

Common logic dictates that Michigan State is going to have a miserable time in pass defense against this OSU passing attack. It just doesn’t seem do-able on paper, or on film.


However, I’m the last guy standing who thinks MSU’s pass defense can still be decent THIS YEAR. It might not show itself in this game. But realize that holding OSU under 350 yards passing is a good day. Quite a good day.

Do that and contain RB Henderson to fewer than 90 yards, and hold OSU to fewer than 130 yards rushing, and you’re right on course.

But in order to meet those marks, Michigan State will need to move and possess the ball, cover field position, run some clock.

Of course Michigan State will need to take care of the ball, rush the passer, protect the passer and all those things.

But if Michigan State can tackle on the catch, prevent big plays, contain the run and make this game decided in the red zone, then it has a chance. From there, Kenneth Walker III needs to be healthy and at full blast, and Payton Thorne has to go into hero mode in a way that we haven’t seen from him, but trust that it’s in there somewhere.

Ohio State is going to have to snap out of its red zone funk and improve its pass defense if its going to win the Big Ten. If they don’t, they’ll get beat by Michigan or Wisconsin if they keep playing the way they did against Nebraska and Penn State.

Maybe this is the part of the season where OSU hits another gear and takes its game up to National Championship contention. But they aren’t there right now.

Can Michigan State be the team that trips them up? Not with the pass defense we’ve seen from Michigan State to this point. The most likely scenario is OSU passing at will, rolling up 425-plus yards through the air, and win by the margin Vegas is expecting.

Michigan State needs pass defense to make the type of unexpected leap in quality during his practice week that the rest of the organization made from last January to September. That’s not impossible. MSU’s defensive back personnel is not bad. There have been flashes of competence. There are a lot of loose screws back there that can be tightened. Can Hazelton, Tucker and Barnett get them screwed tight? Can Michigan State get back to playing physical on defense as was the case in September and most of October? Can the pass rush wake back up?

Those things aren’t likely for Michigan State. But they are not impossible.

MSU 3
Wis 2

Erik Middendorf with 2 goals for the Spartans

Gather 'round.

Good story by Mark Feather.

Terrible opening 19 minutes. Power play shows a lack of offensive skill.....

Superb final minute.

Hope they can build on that goal at the end of the period.

2-1 Michigan after 1

Can’t find the game on Apple TV. Ideas?

The Pre-Snap Read: Michigan State vs Maryland​

By Jim Comparoni
SpartanMag.com

East Lansing, Mich. - Just in time for the cold/rainy season, the Spartans get a nice little test from the No. 3 passing attack in the Big Ten, a week after flunking an exam in pass defense at Purdue.

Here comes rising hotshot QB Taulia Tagovailoa and a Maryland offense that is averaging 316 yards passing per game.

So how good is Maryland? How bad is Michigan State? What’s going wrong with the Spartans? Can it be fixed? How difficult of a test is this game.

You know how bad Michigan State needs this win, in order to make the charm of the first eight wins stand up, and position this team to play for a ton next week at Ohio State.

Whether or not this team can compete with Ohio State remains to be seen, and is probably doubtful. But the Spartans need to get out of this weekend at 9-1, keep hope alive and get back to celebrating what had become a nice little fall football holiday for Spartan fans.

But there’s much work to do.


FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST

If this game were played at a cozy neutral site like Lucas Oil Stadium, Michigan State would have trouble holding Maryland under 320 yards passing and under 28 points. But it’s going to be in cold temperatures, possibly some wet stuff, out on Spartan Stadium’s lawn. More on that in a moment.

Michigan State can’t give up any free ones like last week and see those pass defense numbers balloon over 400 yards and beyond 30 points. Meanwhile, Michigan State can’t have slippage in TE blocking in the run game and blow drives with three-and-outs like last week.

Fail to hold serve on offense with some errors in run blocking, and give up free ones in pass defense, and you’ll lose in this conference. You’ll lose to Purdue. You’ll lose to Maryland.

Michigan State needs to end those quality control errors from last week. Michigan State has been solid in most of these areas all year, including pass defense, even while giving up fat numbers, their yards allowed per pass attempt were usually palatable. But not last week. All numbers were shot last week.

The margin for error for Michigan State isn’t quite as slim as it was last week. I think Purdue is better than Maryland. But the margin is still slim, and Michigan State had better be a sharper machine this week than last week, or there will be a repeat of despair.

According to AccuWeather, I’m seeing a forecast of 41 degrees at kickoff with a 51 pct chance of a rain/snow wintry mix. Down to about 37 degrees in the fourth quarter with a decreasing chance of wet stuff.

Cold, wet, wintry weather should favor Michigan State. Michigan State has the better run defense and run offense. Michigan State is also more accustomed to playing on grass, obviously. Michigan State is more equipped for all-weather football than the Terps.

With poor weather, red zone defense (and offense) will become more important because settling for field goals will be more of a negative than usual, due to field goal accuracy likely to decline.

Force a team to attempt field goals when they get in the red zone, and you take a big step toward victory. Michigan State made that happen against Michigan and Indiana, and they did it again in the second half last week, but not so much in the first half (missed sack on third down for a TD, blew a coverage for a TD on another occasion, and blew a run gap assignment by Jalen Hunt on a run play down to the 1-yard line on another occasion).

Can’t have that slippage in quality control this week.

Maryland is a good test. In some ways the Terps are a slightly lesser version of Purdue than Purdue (but with a different but equally impressive, rising star at QB). Different STYLES of pass game offense, but somewhat equally effective in ball control and the occasional deep shots. Neither team runs the ball well. Maryland has more mobility at the QB position.

If Michigan State can’t fix the problems of last week, they will lose again. Can Michigan State fix those loose screws and get it done at home? If not, they are staring a 4-game losing streak and 8-4 regular season record. That would suck.

As for Tagovailoa, he has impressive numbers and impressive highlight reel plays. Can make all the throws, and do it on the run. He’s a rising star.

If he were playing at Nebraska, the Huskers would be in the Top 25 right now, maybe higher. If he were playing at Wisconsin, the Badgers would only have two losses, maybe one, and would be in the Top 20, maybe higher. If he were the QB at Iowa, Iowa would still be in the Top 10.

He ranks seventh in the country and leads the Big Ten with a 71.1-percent completion percentage.

He ranks in the Top 25 in the country in passing touchdowns (15) and passing yards per game (280.7). He has four 300-yard games in 11 starts as a Terp, already tied for the third-most in program history

He passed for more than 300 yards against West Virginia (26-36 for 332), Illinois (32 of 43 for 350), Kent State (31 of 41 for 384), Indiana (26 of 40 for 419) and Penn State (41 of 57 for 371).

Iowa held him to 16 of 29 for 157 with five INTs.

Minnesota held him to 26 of 40 for 189.

He was 28 of 39 with for 279 with 2 TDs and 2 INTs in a blowout loss at Ohio State.

He’s good, and getting better.

One question I have going into this game is whether he can produce in cold weather.

It’s his second year at Maryland. He spent one year at the University of Alabama.

He grew up in Hawaii and played his senior year in high school in Alabama.

How much cold weather quarterbacking has he done?

Last year, he didn’t have any cold weather games. He was 17 of 36 (47 percent) for 241 yards with 3 INTs last year at Indiana on Nov. 28. But Indiana was intercepting everyone last year. It was sunny at 50 that day, with kickoff at noon.

He was 18 of 26 for 282 with 3 TDs and 0 INTs at Penn State on Nov. 7. It was unseasonably 72 degrees that day at Penn State, last year.

I can’t find evidence of him attempting a game pass with temperatures under 50 degrees.

The last time I can find that he played in bad weather was his senior season in high school, in the semifinals. His team won but that day but he went 12-of-28 for 228 yards as a Crimson Tide commitment. It was 53 degrees and raining that day. Not cold. But not comfortable.

Temperatures were clear and in the 40s in their state title game against Phenix City Central during his high school senior year in 2018. His team lost 52-7. He played with an injured throwing shoulder He was 7 of 11 for a career-low 44 yards that night. He was sacked four times and threw a pick-six. That day might have been the only time he has attempted a pass in a game in 40-degree temps. On Saturday at Spartan Stadium, temperatures will be in the high 30s. He might not like it.

It makes me wonder about things like his hand size as well. He’s about 6-feet tall. In still photos, his hands don’t look big. The ball can get slippery when it’s cold.

Am I looking for fairy tale hope for the Spartans? Not really. But the Spartans need some help and hope, and these things could set this very talented Tagovailoa just a little bit off his mark. Michigan State needs all the help it can get. Just something to keep in mind.

Michigan State needs to get its run game saddled back up. This is a good chance to do it. Indiana rushed for over 200 yards against Maryland two weeks ago. Penn State’s mediocre running attack averaged less than 3 yards per carry.

As was the case last week, Michigan State needs to grind the ground game, achieve balance, stop the Maryland run game and survive the pass game. Special teams looks like a toss up.

Michigan State has more win belief right now than Maryland. That helps. Playing at home should jack up Michigan State just a little bit more than the Terps, of course. Mel Tucker has his guys believing they are built for this weather. Familiarity with the grass surface on days like this helps, too.


APPLES TO APPLES

I like Payton Thorne, but I give the edge to Tagovailoa. In cold weather, maybe not.

Michigan State is obviously way better at tailback.

MSU’s offensive line will remain reshuffled, with LT Jarrett Horst out. AJ Arcuri is expected to be at left tackle, and Kevin Jarvis is expected to be at right tackle. Not ideal, two weeks after Arcuri and Jarvis had possibly the best combined run blocking performance of their tag team career.

Maryland has been shuffling their o-line as well. They aren’t bad. They aren’t great. This is the Big Ten. No one is bad. I would give Michigan State the edge.

Tight end blocking has been inconsistent for both teams. Tight end receiving has been a little better for Maryland, especially last week. Tagovailoa really relied on his TE last week, who is a Connor Heyward type, maybe a little quicker. Edge Maryland.

Both teams have had injuries at WR. Maryland has had a little more productivity out of its next-man-up WRs than Michigan State. Jayden Reed is the best WR on the field, but Maryland’s No. 2 and 3 WRs might be slightly better than Tre Mosley and Montorie Foster at this point. Call it a tie.

Maryland’s 3-4 d-line is sturdy. MSU’s has been good, but is starting to blink out a little bit. Jacob Slade played on a bum ankle last week and wasn’t quite his dominant self. Jacub Panasiuk has grown quiet in the last two weeks. Drew Beesley has come back to help but isn’t at the level he was prior to his lower body injury.

Maryland does a lot of two-gapping out of its 30 front. They are burly guys who do a decent job but maybe aren’t loud playmakers.

Last week, Jalen Hunt got some playing time or Michigan State but didn’t play all that well. He looked a little heavy and didn’t show a great motor.

Overall, I have to give the d-line edge to Michigan State based on what Panasiuk has done in the past, and the possibility that Slade could bounce back. But last week, Maryland’s d-line was probably as good as MSU’s.

At linebacker, Michigan State isn’t without fault. Maryland is similar. Slight edge to Michigan State.

At cornerback, edge to Maryland.

At safety, edge to Michigan State.

In terms of pass defense solvency, they have both had leaks and slippage. Call it even.



THE LATEST ON MICHIGAN STATE

We have to touch on last week’s carnage before we can go forward with the Maryland analysis.

As shaky as Michigan State was in pass defense, Michigan State would have been on schedule to survive the situation and steal victory despite giving up 375 yards of offense IF the Spartans had held serve and gotten the ground game going, and not had a pair of three-and-outs in the third quarter.

If Michigan State had run the ball, and avoided four broken play big plays in pass defense for 191 yards, the Spartans would have been in position to steal a victory, no matter how ugly.

But Michigan State wasn’t good enough. I’m not making excuses. I’m just trying to figure out if Michigan State is as systemically terrible as their stats, or if there are enough correctable loose screws to bring this thing into the garage.

Looking back at that game, there were two big categories of concern for Michigan State in pass defense - and neither of them had much to do with individuals getting torched. That’s somewhat good news.


CATEGORY 1: FOUR BIG PLAYS

1. Michigan State CB Chester Kimbrough got beat for 42 yards when he fell down during Purdue’s second TD drive. Kimbrough had WR David Bell well-covered on the play. Kimbrough had him stacked (which means he was between the WR and the end zone). But Kimbrough fell.

2. 50 yards to Bell when Chuck Brantley played cover-two while everyone else was in cover-three. This led to one of Purdue’s field goals.

Freshman mistake. Inexcusable at any time of the year, but it happens once in awhile to most teams. HOWEVER, it happened to Brantley a couple of times in this game.

3. 53 yards to Bell when he beat Kimbrough in the fourth quarter. This was when Michigan State was desperately trying to get a stop in order to chop into Purdue’s lead in the fourth quarter.

Kimbrough hadn’t been bad in coverage most of the day, but on this play, he got flat-footed, lost technique and Bell shimmied right past him and got upfield.

You can play “pretty good” coverage all day, but it only takes one lapse like this to give up a big chunk and cause your team to lose grip on survival.

Kimbrough had hobbled off the field once earlier in the game. Michigan State couldn’t afford to have him sit. It was an exhausting game for DBs. He looked a little weary on this play. No excuse. Michigan State wasn’t the one doing the heavy swinging and landing the heavy punches at the end, for a change.

Give Kimbrough some relievers, and he might have been fresher at this key juncture. That’s not an excuse. It’s just an example of where Michigan State needs to get to from a depth standpoint. Put Marqui Lowery and Kalon Gervin on this team last week and I’m not saying it’s the No Fly Zone, but Kimbrough wouldn’t have been extended and exposed the way he was. He needed some help and didn’t have any.

4. 46-yard screen pass in the fourth quarter. This was with 5 minutes to play. Michigan State had just cut the lead to 8 points on a 2-point conversion pass to Maliq Carr. Michigan State had momentum. Needed a stop.

Surprisingly, Michigan State came out aggressive and desperate on first down with a five-man rush. MSU’s blitzes hadn’t been getting home on this day. Michigan State customarily would stick with a base defense in this situation. With five minutes to play, Michigan State didn’t need to force the issue. But Michigan State did, came with a blitz, and got burned with a devastating 46-yard screen pass.

Maybe Purdue would have sliced up anything Michigan State threw at them in the fourth quarter. But the screen absolutely destroyed the blitz. Michigan State threw paper and Maryland threw scissors on that play.

And Angelo Grose missed a tackle.

I’m not saying Michigan State deserved to win. I’m saying eliminate those four super-correctable plays for 191 yards and Michigan State is giving up a passable number of passing yards. You can win a game while giving up 350 yards passing. Penn State did it against Maryland last week. This isn’t 1985.

That doesn’t hide the fact that MSU’s pass defense has gone from shaky to bad. But I’m trying to present my thoughts that this doesn’t necessarily have to be the worst pass defense in history every single week.

This wasn’t a case of Michigan State getting out-manned and flat-out torched by superior players. That would be a big problem, coming from Purdue. And this could very well happen next week at Ohio State. But for now, the problems are correctable for this level of competition.

Saturday’s problems at Purdue weren’t like the avalanche of problems in a 1992 loss to Notre Dame, for those of you who remember that red letter day. Notre Dame came out and threw deep, deep, deep because Michigan State simply didn’t have the CBs who could cover Lake Dawson and the like.

ND had been more of a power run team that year, but Lou Holtz smartly came out and said, “We’re going deep. You can’t cover us.” And he was correct. ND took a big lead early, and cruised, 52-31. It could have been 70-7 if ND wished.

There is a difference between the two. ND delivered a TKO of athletic superiority.

Purdue’s 500-plus yards were a case of execution and Michigan State’s correctable errors.


CATEGORY 2: BUSTS

* SpartanMag analyst and contributor Ron Armstrong pointed out that he was stunned by how many pure assignment and technical errors Michigan State made in pass defense.

Example: The Chuck Brantley cover-two error when everyone else was in cover-three (allowing the WR to get behind him with no Spartan helper on the deep half).

Example: Brantley not moving a muscle on a 5-yard TD pass behind him and into the cover-two hole which gave Purdue a 14-7 lead.

Armstong cited other examples, such as the Michigan State slot nickel not rerouting a clear threat to the seam (which enabled an easy hook for about 15 yards).

And there was one case in run defense when Purdue blasted an 8-yard run down to the 1-yard line when Jalen Hunt was one-gapping while everyone else on the line was two-gapping.


Comp’s Take: Brantley’s cover-two error has all the markings of a guy who didn’t read the sideline signals correctly. Possibly the same issue on the 5-yard TD. Possibly the same issue for Hunt when he one-gapped.

I don’t have inside info on this, but when I see Brantley doing the wrong thing and Hunt doing the wrong thing, I’m left wondering if Michigan State may have changed some defensive signals for this game and those young guys just didn’t get on the right page. Michigan State hasn’t had quality control issues like this on defense all year, but it cropped up a handful of times in this game, just enough to alter the proceedings.

* MSU’s pass rush didn’t provide pressure often enough. But Purdue was getting the ball out in under :02 seconds almost every time. That’s a credit to Purdue’s offensive scheme, the route combinations and a QB who can make great pre-snap reads, and decisive post-snap reads (add his accuracy, and his WR’s route running), and you can see why they also riddled Iowa’s zone defense and eventually chased the Hawkeyes out of zone and into man-to-man (something very few teams are capable of doing).

So Purdue was good. And Michigan State had cracks in its quality control armor like we haven’t seen all year.

Earlier this week, Mel Tucker was asked how involved he was going to be in the corrections.

“Very involved,” Tucker said.

His answer came quickly and with more conviction and more loudly than most of his answers at these press conferences. I detected a measure of take-over frustration in that. Armstrong had the same read on it.

Does that mean Michigan State will get it fixed? Not necessarily. But I have more faith in the process than I had if, say, Chris Smeland were in charge.

And I have strong reason to believe that Tucker is going to hold his coordinators accountable more so than some other recent head coaches Michigan State has had.

* All that aside, does Michigan State have the legs to hang with a quality passing attack like Maryland? Or is Michigan State truly the worst pass defense in the country, as the stats indicate?

With a healthy and mind-right Brantley, plus a healthy Ronald Williams and a healthy Chester Kimbrough, Michigan State would be able to hold Maryland under 300 yards passing (not a great accomplishment), but enough to win if Michigan State is stuffing the run (which is expected) and establishing offensive balance (which should happen if Michigan State avoids relapses in poor tight end blocking like what happened in the third quarter last week).

But Michigan State doesn’t have a healthy Brantley or Williams. And Kimbrough is a little gimpy.

I don’t expect Brantley to play. I expect Williams to attempt to gut it out. Michigan State needs him to do it. It’s November. Potentially a November to remember.

Kimbrough is mentally tough and will be looking to bounce back.

I think those guys will be okay for the most part, but I don’t know what they will look like 60 or 70 or 80 snaps into the game. Maryland will go up tempo. Maryland’s QB is a fine, fine player, improving all the time, with limited talent around him. But you know he and the Maryland receivers are salivating about going against this Michigan State pass defense, and they will be eager to throw it around for 50 pass attempts, or more. The tests will keep coming. Michigan State might pass those tests early, but you have to do it all day, something Kimbrough wasn’t able to do last week .

* Might we see an Michigan State wide receiver moved to CB out of necessity?

Absolutely.

Montorie Foster has done it in the past, briefly, in practice. But he is needed at WR, and he is gaining some traction there. And he was seen with the WRs during a mic’d up All Access released earlier this week.

Terry Lockett would be a candidate for an emergency move to CB.

True freshman Antoine Booth might be pressed into duty against his former home state Terps. But I have to say I thought his high school film was just okay. And then he didn’t play high school ball last fall due to the pandemic. I have no idea what he’s been looking like in practice but I’m not surprised that we haven’t seen him on the field. Maybe he’ll surprise me.

As for walk-ons, Michigan State has had some good walk-on CBs in the program in the past. Guys like Corey Pryor and Mitchell White come to mind; even though they never really got to play, they were capable. But from what I’ve seen, MSU’s walk-on cornerback situation is not good right now. We saw walk-on DBs and CBs in the spring scrimmage, and it wasn’t good. If those guys have to play, Michigan State becomes sub-MAC level at the position in a hurry.

* As for MSU’s issues on offense, Jarrett Horst won’t be playing at left tackle. Michigan State is preparing to go the rest of the season without him.

Michigan State was coming off a terrific performance in the run game against Michigan. Right tackle AJ Arcuri and right guard Kevin Jarvis played at a high level that day, but now are reshuffled again. And with it, the physical rhythm those two were achieving on the right side of the line gets lost in the wash.

That being said, Michigan State should still be able to get some ground beef going in this game. Maryland might contain the run for a little while, but keep probing it and some will pop. That should have been the case last week. It needs to be the case this week.

* Other stuff: Michigan State on defense doesn’t seem to be hitting as hard as they did earlier in the year. The Michigan game put some wear on their bones. Michigan State’s has had to play so many snaps on defense, more than any team in the Big Ten. That’s like adding an extra game to the schedule.


SETTING THE TABLE

Maryland is 5-4, trying to become bowl eligible for the first time in five years.

Maryland’s results

W vs West Virginia, 30-24
W vs Howard, 62-0
W at Illinois, 20-17
W vs Kent State, 37-16
L vs Iowa, 51-14
L at Ohio State, 66-17
L at Minnesota, 34-16
W vs Indiana, 38-35
L vs Penn State, 31-14


LAST WEEK

The game at Penn State was MUCH closer than the score indicated.

Maryland was tied with Penn State 14-14 early in the fourth quarter and the Terrapins were pretty much out-playing Penn State at that point.

Turning point came on an 86-yard PSU pass to WR Dotson on second-and-17 with 14:02 to play. Clever little slant-and-go to the cover-four seam. Dotson is explosive as heck. As good as Jayden Reed is, Reed is not as explosive as Dotson.

Then Maryland dropped a pass inside the 20-yard line on third down, had a false start when trying to go for it on fourth down, and decided to punt from the PSU 38-yard line with about 8 minutes to go. Punt bounded into the end zone. Touchback. Darn.

A few plays later, Maryland brought a seven-man rush/zero blitz on third-and-seven. PSU hit Dotson on a rub mesh (crossing) route vs CB 2 Bennett. Not Bennett’s fault. Very hard route to cover with no safety help. It got out for 45 yards to the Maryland 11-yard line with 7:35 to play. PSU hit a field goal with 6:36 to play to go up 24-14.

Then on Maryland’s next drive, the Terps drove to the PSU 13-yard line. But Tagovailoa was picked off and returned 88 yards for a TD and a 31-14 lead. Tagovailoa was trying to hit a crossing route vs a blitz and was a little late with it but it was at a point in the game when he had to take a chance.

Dan Enos, the former Michigan State QB, assistant coach and currently the Maryland offensive coordinator, grabbed Tagovailoa by both sides of the helmet and had encouraging words for the young QB after that play. The QB is good, despite that play and the final score. That’s what Enos was likely telling him. And he’s right.

Last week’s stats:

First downs: Maryland 29, PSU 23.
Total yards: Penn State 456, Maryland 419.

Penn State rushed for 118 yards in gains (netted 93 for 2.8 per carry).

Maryland rushed for 91 yards in gains against Penn State (netted 48).

Maryland tailback Faamatau averaged 3.5 per carry and netted 38 yards on 11 attempts.

Maryland tailback Tayon Fleet-Davis averaged 4.6 per carry against Penn State, netting 37 on eight attempts.


TALE OF THE TAPE STATS

* Maryland and Michigan State allow the most passing yards per game than any teams in the Big Ten. Michigan State is allowing 321.2 yards per game through the air in conference games. Maryland is allowing 271.

Michigan State is lapping the field in this dubious category.

But, for what it’s worth, Michigan State is No. 9 in the Big Ten in yards allowed per pass attempt in conference games. Maryland is worse and No. 13.

Michigan State has been halfway decent in this category for most of the year despite being dead last in the nation in pass defense for the year. HOWEVER, Michigan State was terrible in all categories last week in pass defense, which dropped Michigan State to No. 9 in the Big Ten in yards allowed per pass attempt.

* These are also two of the worst teams in the Big Ten in third down defense. Michigan State is No. 12 and Maryland is No. 14.

Between the poor pass defenses and poor third down defenses, this game could become a wild, sloppy affair. HOWEVER, an rain, sleet, snow or wet field conditions will help the pass defenses. If this becomes more of a run game affair, that will favor Michigan State. Michigan State stops the run better than Maryland and establishes the run better than Maryland - at least that’s been the mode so far.

* The following are stats for Big Ten games only:


OFFENSE
Scoring Offense: Maryland is No. 10 in the Big Ten at 19.8 ppg.
(Michigan State is No. 3 at 29.7).

Offense Yards Per Play: Maryland is No. 6 at 5.4.
(Michigan State is No. 2 at 6.6).

Rushing YPP: Maryland No. 13 at 2.8
(Michigan State is No. 1 at 5.4).

Passing YPP: Maryland is No. 7 at 7.3.
(Michigan State is No. 9 at 7.0).

Sacks Allowed: Maryland is No. 9 with 15 sacks allowed.
(Michigan State No. 4 with 11 sacks allowed.)

Third Down Pct: Maryland is No. 7 at 34.7.
(Michigan State is No. 11 at 32.9).


DEFENSE

Scoring Defense: Maryland is No. 14 at 39.0 allowed per game.
(Michigan State is No. 9 at 23.7).

Defense Yards Allowed Per Play: Maryland is No. 13 at 6.3.
(Michigan State is No. 8 at 5.4).

Rushing Yards Allowed Per Play: Maryland is No. 12 at 4.5.
(Michigan State is No. 5 at 3.4).

QB Sacks: Maryland is No. 6 with 16 sacks.
(Michigan State is No. 3 with 19, but the Spartans have been cooling off in this category over the last two games).

Third Down Defense Pct: Maryland is No. 14 at 47.1 percent. (Michigan State is No. 12 at 42.9 percent).


CULTURE BALL

* Maryland was trading blows evenly with Penn State last week and seemed headed into the end zone for a 14-13 score late in the third quarter. Maryland was mixing in some surprising run game with excellent pass game and had it second-and-two at the PSU 10-yard line, but a bad center snap resulted in a fumble and PSU’s ball and a blowing scoring opportunity for Maryland.

Stuff like that piles up on losing teams. Ask Nebraska.

Question is whether Maryland, with four losses on the year, will be “just good enough to lose” due to things like this on Saturday, or if it’s Michigan State’s turn to have a run of errors like this. Saturday’s game may very well be decided by which team doesn’t beat itself. Michigan State has been pretty good in that area most of the year, although there were some hiccups at Indiana and Rutgers. Can’t afford many against this week’s opponent. Need to get back to a clean culture.


THINGS TO KNOW

Maryland head coach Mike Locksley is in his third year with the Terps.

He took over a devastated program and went 3-9, 2-3 and is now 5-4. The Terps are doing better under Locksley than I expected. He had a terrible time at the University of New Mexico from 2009-2011 (2-26 overall). But this Maryland team looks pretty good.

He is from the area and had been a Maryland assistant in the past. Locksley’s career was rehabilitated as an analyst at Alabama and then offensive coordinator for the Tide in 2018. That’s where he met Dan Enos (and Mel Tucker).

Locksley was a good hire for Maryland, to help with outreach and to bridge the gap from the tragedy of the death of player Jordan McNair under the previous staff due. Locksley made sense for a lot of reasons. But didn’t expect much success. I was wrong. They are already better than I thought they ever would be under him. He’s running a pretty solid program right now, and they are trending in the right direction. He has improved as a head coach.


THE MARYLAND OFFENSE

Tagovailoa can throw from the pocket, or on the move. He has a very quick release, good zip and good accuracy. He’s good.

Maryland is going to get hot with the passing game, get some uptempo concepts going, throwing on the run, taking deep shots, using some RPO. They have been trying to get the run game going, but without much success.

They are going to complete passes and move the ball. They are going to get into the red zone. Red zone defense will be paramount again, as it’s been all year. Tucker says he doesn’t want to be a bend-but-don’t-break defense, but that’s what Michigan State has amounted to this year, and it will have to be that way again this year.

* In the pass game, Tagovailoa is comfortable throwing the wide side of the field, with touch or zip, or into the bucket on a 25-yard out to the field side. He is very comfortable with passes over the middle, whether they are ins, crossing routes, or sit-downs. He has a very quick release, with good zip on it.

I haven’t seen any/many bubble screens from Maryland. They will occasionally throw a “now” screen. But they will hit the RPO on you.

* He has good receivers to throw to, but not a dominant guy like a Dotson or a David Bell. WR Dontay Demus was supposed to be that guy for the Terps this year, and he was that guy before going down with a season-ending injury in the Iowa game.

The 6-foot-4 Demus led the Big Ten and was No. 11 in the country in receiving yards and receiving yards per game (111.5) at the time of his injury.

* Eight different Maryland players caught a pass in the first half against Penn State last week.

* In the run game, Maryland is a basic inside zone team. They will mix in some power to the C-gap, and an occasional outside zone. Not much variance.

Not a terrible running attack. They have Big Ten backs and Big Ten offensive linemen. Similar to Rutgers or Purdue in the run game.


OFFENSIVE PERSONNEL


QB 3 TAULIA TAGOVAILOA (5-11, 200, R-Soph., Ewa Beach, HI

* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 9 in Alabama.

* Signed with Alabama, where his brother was a superstar. Transferred to Maryland when Locksley left Alabama for the Terps’ head coaching job.

* Has started 13 games. He’s trending very hot. As stated, my question will be whether he is comfortable in his first game in cold weather.

* Quick release, good zip. Good footwork to set up his throws, whether side-stepping in the pocket, or being flushed.

* Began the Indiana game 7-of-7 for 126 yards, helping Maryland to a 14-0 lead.

+ Crazy-good pass last week against PSU in the 2Q to the TE (9 Okonkwo) on a square-in at 12 yards while be flushed to his right, across his body, zip and accuracy on the move. Arm strength, mixed with accuracy and mobility. Mercy.

As much as I said I liked Aidan O’Connell’s brain and ability to process for Purdue, this guy for Maryland is just as good, and trending better, but with a different skill set. Tagovailoa seems pretty good in the brain department too, but the arm/feet/zip/accuracy/mobility stuff is a headache and he has a quicker release than anyone Michigan State has played this year.

* On the move, he can drive the ball with arm strength going to his right, or throw a touch pass when flushed to his left.

* He does all that stuff AND they do it with tempo, and they sew in some RPOs.

* 57 pass attempts vs PSU. His previous high was 43.

* He will break out the zone read keeper just enough to keep you honest, and he’ll get good gainers on it.

* Threw five interceptions against Iowa.

“That game was an anomaly for him,” Locksley said. “Since then he has played winning football for us.”

Pro Football Focus on his game against Iowa:

Tagovailoa entered last week’s game against the vaunted Iowa pass defense as the highest-graded quarterback in the country. He didn't have a single turnover-worthy play to his name. But the outing changed that, and he earned a poor 51.7 passing grade for the night, buoyed by four turnover-worthy plays. Iowa’s zone defense caused Tagovailoa to hold onto the ball, subsequently disrupting the timing of the Terps' offense. He was still effective on quick throws against Iowa, and his 92.0 passing grade this season on passes faster than 2.5 seconds ranks second-best in the FBS this season. For Tagovailoa to continue to climb up this list, he has to get better at not forcing throws on long-developing plays.



Tagovailoa vs Indiana:


+ 48-yard throw to WR 1 Flemming vs off coverage. Perfect throw from Tagovailoa, from the right hash to the far side of the field. Dropped it in the bucket while getting some heat.

+ 25-yard completion on a deep wheel to the wide side of the field, good touch.

+ RPO slant to 15 Cobbs for 15 yards vs an inside blitz.

+ 43-yard pass to Jarrett on a deep out at 25 yards then the run after the catch. Jarrett was the No. 3 receiver (third receiver from the boundary), ran a downfield switch concept (where he criss-crosses with the No. 2 receiver downfield, this time at 20 yards) which screwed up the safety in a five-DB cover-four. Good concept, time to throw, good read, accurate.

+ Nice little RPO hitch to beat a CB blitz for a 14-yard TD to WR 83 Carriere.

+ 43-yard TD to WR 83 Carrier on another sight-adjust against a corner blitz, made the safety miss and was gone. That gave Maryland a 35-20 lead in the fourth quarter.

* He will hold the ball a little longer than Purdue’s QB, and the pass rush will have a chance to get home. But he is quite mobile.


RB 8 TAYON FLEET-DAVIS (6-0, 215, Sr., Oxon Hill, Md.)
* Three-star recruit, No. 12 in Maryland.
* Averaging 49.9 yards rushing per game, 5.1 per carry. Has 399 yards rushing on the year.

+ Good hands on the swing pass.
* Solid battler, not a game-breaker.
+ Deep route, lining up as wide out, capitalizing on a CB error for a deep shot gain of 45 against Indiana. QB with a backyard sight adjust and threw accurately on the run.

RB 29 Challen Faamatau (5-11, 225, Sr., Kalihi, HI/Coffeyville CC)
+ Nice 2-yard TD run (4 yards after contact) on a quick-tempo, outside zone out of an under-center I formation.

* Good short-yardage guy. Nice job lowering his shoulder to pick up third-and-two last week in the 3Q.

- But he was stopped on fourth-and-1 at Indiana. RT played too wide on an inside zone, and TE 9 Okonkwo got beat inside.


RB Peny Boone (6-1, 245, Soph., Detroit King)

* Four-star RB, ranked No. 10 in Michigan. Dantonio’s staff offered him, but Tucker’s staff didn’t pursue him.
* 27 rushes on the year, averaging 4.3 per cary, 115 net yards on the season.


WIDE RECEIVER

* Maryland has shown some good depth here. After some injuries, including a big one to Demus, others have stepped up and been pretty decent.

WR 5 RAKIM JARRETT (6-0, 190, Soph., Palmer Park Md.)

* Five-star recruit, ranked No. 19 overall player in the nation.

* Also took official visits to Alabama and LSU.

* Last year was honorable mention All-Big Ten. Had 17 catches in four games with two TDs.

* Is having a good impact thus far at Maryland but I wouldn’t call him a great one yet.

* Leads team with 31 catches.

* Averages 57.9 yards receiving per game.

* Six catches for 70 yards against PSU.

* Five catches for 88 yards against Indiana.

* Solid job on the hitch and then getting north aggressively for all he can get.

* Also hit a little RPO to him for 8 yards, selling an outside zone to the right but having the run-pass option to throw the hitch back to the left.

+ Deep wheel route for 25 yards at Indiana as the No. 3 receiver.



WR 1 MARCUS FLEMMING (5-10, 165, Fr., Miami)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 57 in Florida.
* has 12 catches on the year.

* Has emerged from a reserve to become a pretty good depth threat.

- Dropped a deep over route vs PSU in the 2Q.

* Five catches for 38 yards last week against Penn State.

+ 15 yard catch on a sprint out to the right, sail concept (three-level flood with an over route trailing) on the first play of a drive with 11:38 to play. Real nice route, throw and execution. This is a pretty good team.

- Pass through his hands on third-and-seven at the PSU 21-yard line with 10:00 to play and Maryland trailing 21-14. QB put it on him, on a crosser against two-deep/man-under. (Then on fourth-and-seven, the left tackle flagged for false start; and Maryland then punted, from the PSU 38-yard line. Ouch. Then punt bounded into the end zone for a touchback. Culture ball.)

+ 48 yard catch vs off coverage against Indiana. Perfect throw from Tagovailoa, from the right hash to the far side of the field. Dropped it in the bucket while getting some heat.


WR 83 CARLOS CARRIERE (6-5, 200, Sr., Alpharetta, Ga.)

* Three-star recruit, No. 77 in Georgia. Spring commitment also had offers from Illinois and mid-majors.

* Big game vs Indiana with eight catches for 134 yards with two TDs.

* Good, finger tip catch on RPO early in the PSU game.

* Has 15 catches and four TDs.

* Had only two catches last year. Had 12 catches as a sophomore in 2019.


WR 10 Tai Felton (6-1, 185, Fr., Ashburn, Va.)
* Three-star recruit, No. 31 in Virginia.

* November commitment also had offers from Michigan State, Duke, Nebraska, Syracuse, Pitt, Virginia, Va Tech and Wake Forest.

* Has four catches on the year, and is starting to get involved as Maryland needs other to step up.

+ 17 yard out in the 2Q vs Penn State. QB on time and laser zip on it, quick release, vs cover-four zone. Ball came out pretty quick for a relatively deep out. Pass pro was good enough. This is the type of conventional pitch and catch, in uptempo, that can and will eat Michigan State alive.


TIGHT END
* Maryland’s tight ends combined for 16 of the Terps’ 41 completions last week.
* No. 9, Okonkwo, has become Tagovailoa’s favorite target.


TE 9 CHIGOZIEM OKONKWO (6-3, 250, Sr., Powder Springs, Ga.)
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 56 in Georgia.

* Also had offers from Georgia Tech and Wisconsin.
* 12 catches for 85 yards last week.

- Dropped pass on third down last week in the 2Q on a dig.
* Has 32 catches on the year.

* Pretty good quickness at tight end, and comfortable hands, similar to Connor Heyward in size, quickness and hands. Probably a little quicker than Heyward. Excellent possession weapon.

* Two-point conversation catch on a slide route, well-designed and executed, to tie the game last week at 14-14 early in the 4Q.

* Missed a block on a fourth-and-one stoppage at Indiana.


WR 84 Corey Dyches (6-2, 220, Soph., Oxon Hills, Md.)
* Was a three-star recruit, No. 22 in Maryland.

* Also had offers from UNC, Boston College, Rutgers, Pitt, Syracuse.

* Four catches for 38 yards and a TD last week.

* Slender TE type.

* TD 12 yards on a wheel route vs cover-four zone. He was the third receiver to the short side on a FIB (formation into the boundary, which means three receivers crowded into the short side).

That was a well-designed, quick-hitting play. Good offense. Pretty good team.


OFFENSIVE LINE
* Had one false start and three holding penalties last week.

* They’ve been shuffling the o-line, but seemed to settle on a starting five last week with the RT moving to center.

* Not a great line, not a bad line. Typical middle of the pack Big Ten offensive line.


LT 71 JAELYN DUNCAN (6-6, 320, Jr., New Carrollton, Md.)
* Four-star recruit, No. 9 in Maryland.

* Summer commitment over offers from Florida, Iowa State, LSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and others.

- Beaten for a sack last week on a dip/rip to the outside in the 1Q.

+ Good pull, fold and lead block on a third-and-three conversion via an outside gap run last week in the 3Q.

* Good pull by RT 54 on that play


LG 78 MASON LUNSFORD (6-7, 305, Soph., Olney, Md.)
* Three-star recruit, No. 20 in Maryland.

* Committed just before signing day with offers from Army and Air Force.

+ Good combo block clearing out to the LB last week to spring the RB for a gain of 16 early in the 2H vs PSU. Good footwork to get the turn and seal on a LB.

- Allowed a sack to LB McFadden of Indiana, but that guy is hard to block when they blitz him.


C/RT 54 SPENCER ANDERSON (6-5, 330, Jr., Bowie, Md.)
* Three-star recruit, No. 24 in Maryland.

* Moved to center last week, replacing 66 Aric Harris, who was a juco transfer.

- High snap turned the ball over to PSU in the third quarter last week when Maryland was down just 14-6.


RG 65 JOHARI BRANCH (6-3, 330, Sr., Chicago Phillips Academy)
* Three-star recruit, Juco, Independence (Kan.) CC.

* Also had an offer from Purdue.

* No opinion (which means I didn’t notice him positively or negatively, and didn’t focus on him).

* Same with the right tackle.


MARYLAND DEFENSE

A lot of these Maryland players, especially on defense, I look at them and I think, “Well that guy is pretty good. Good start-and-stop athleticism. Some strength. How tall is he?”

I’ll look it up, and he’ll be a 6-foot-2 defensive end (not ideal height). Or a 6-foot outside linebacker (not ideal height).

I mean they are big enough to play decent defense at this level. But with the way some of these guys move, if they were a couple of inches taller, they would be somewhere besides Maryland.

Maryland is a team fully capable of beating Michigan State. I’m not saying Michigan State is great. But, like I said about Rutgers, even with the Terps likely to reach a bowl game for the first time in five years, they are “still Maryland” at some positions. Good, athletic guys, but limited ceilings.

These guys have a “defect” of sorts, in that they don’t have ideal size at some positions. Not all positions. The safety, No. 18, looks the part and plays the part.

They are faster in the secondary than Rutgers was. They don’t have problems tackling the way Miami did.

They had some communication busts late in the Indiana game, to keep allowing the Hoosiers back into it.

* Locksley said Maryland’s d-line played “winning football” last week against PSU.

* Maryland d-line had three sacks last week.

* Maryland allowed just 2.8 yards per rush last week against a medicore PSU run game.

* Allowed 66-yard TD run to Stephen Carr of Indiana. Outside zone, cut back to the B gap. LB 11 got out of his gap while trying to knack where the ball was going to go, very difficult sometimes for an inside LB to do behind two-gapping defensive linemen. Matt Millen commented that the LB needed to stay patient and not overpursue over the top. Might have been the only time I’ve ever heard Millen offer useful analysis. (I’m sure he knows more about football than all of us combined, but I’ll diplomatically assume that he tries to dumb things down for the viewers, and usually ends up telling us nothing, aside from “really well-done.”)



GAME WITHIN THE GAME

After watching their Penn State game, I thought, “Wow, they don’t even try to disguise anything. If they line up with two safeties deep, it’s going to be zone. If they line up in press with one safety deep, it’s going to stay that way at the snap and they are in man-to-man.

I thought that seemed remedial and easy to read. I wondered why they would be so transparent.

Then I watched their game from the previous week against Indiana, and it looked like they tried to disguise things a little more. But too often, they ended up fooling themselves.

It looked to me like they tried to keep things simpler for the Penn State game. The results weren’t bad, I guess. But Penn State popped off some big gains on third down when they knew it was man-to-man and they went with some man-beater crossing routes.

If Maryland plays like they did last week, they will go press man-to-man quite often, especially on first down and third down, and sometimes press/man/zero (meaning no safeties over the top and they’re blitzing). And they don’t disguise it well.

Can Michigan State check to deep “go” routes and beat these CBs off the line of scrimmage when they show press? Good WRs can do it. Can Reed, Mosley, Foster? That’s the game within the game this week.

* Maryland’s defense plays square, and correct-shoulder their collisions, and they have guys that are physical, can run and hit. This is the Big Ten with scholarship athletes and million-dollar coaches. Everyone can play at least a little, every team has positive moments at some point in pretty much every game.


DEFENSIVE LINE

Locksley:

“Our interior d-line is playing well. We’re a 3-4 front. Very few of the big plays that have happened have happened in the A-gaps or B-gaps. The C-gaps is the area where we have kind of been exposed.”

He said injuries to edge linemen an outside linebackers have necessitated playing younger players.

Translation: Michigan State might be able to saddle up the run off-tackle this week. Outside zone. Or inside zone and try look for the K-9 bounce to the outside.


DE 97 SAM OKUAYINONU (6-2, 280, Sr., Lowell, Mass).

* Was a three-star recruit and juco transfer.

+ Pretty good ability to bend the hoop on the edge. Used that lateral quickness to elude an PSU pull guard, wrapping around the puller to get to the QB on a designed keeper for no gain.

* Not the tallest guy, but he has quick feet. In that regard, reminiscent of a Jonal Saint-Dic, but more physical and not quite the pass rusher but a pretty good one (five sacks).

+ Good timing and quickness with the swipe move to play the run, getting PSU RB Cain on the ground after a gain of 1 on an inside zone last week in the 2Q.

* Slippery good pass rusher for a thick guy when he surprises you with a one-gap shoulder dip move. Had a sack doing that against Indiana.

46 Greg Rose (6-2, 295, Sr., Los Angeles)

* Two sacks against PSU. Has three sacks on the year.

+ Beat Penn State’s RT for one sack, kind of badly. RT seemed to be preoccupied with the LB threat.

+ Second sack was also a coverage sack, early in the 4Q with the score tied at 14-14.

+ Pretty quick with a stunt for a sack to end Indiana’s first possession of the game.

10 Tyler Baylor

* One sack against PSU, coverage sack, defeated the RG puller protector off of play action. Gave him a two-hand shiver and got off, not really a pass rush move to make that sack. PSU QB Clifford held the ball too long;

Maryland was in cover-three zone with PSU WRs running vertical routes, not much available to him intermediately. PSU better not get caught with too many elongated route combos against Michigan; PSU’s pass pro isn’t good enough to hold out.


NT 55 AMI FINAU (6-2, 320, Sr., Kahuku, HI)
* Juco transfer.
* Solid, solid, solid.
* Solid, solid, solid.
* Can two-gap, disengage and defeat the average center regularly.

* Solid.


DT 34 MOSIAH NASILI-KITE (6-2, 310, Jr., Pittsburg, Calif.)
* Three-star recruit out of Independence Community College.
* Also had offers from Arizona and mid-majors.

* Honorable Mention All-Big Ten last year. Had four sacks last year.

* Strong with the press when two-gapping, but not great at disengaging to make a play.

+ Good job with a surprise one-gap manuever for a TFL on an inside zone in the 4Q last week.


DE 95 LAWTEZ ROGERS (6-4, 270, Sr., Landover, Md.)
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 14 in Maryland.

* Had offers from Louisville, Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, Wake Forest.

* Had three starts last year.

* Somewhat active, capable, unspectacular.

* Three TFLs on the year, no sacks.

* Maryland is playing hard on film. Locksley says they are continuing to play hard in practice.

Penn State was a targeted rival for Penn State. Penn State has a lot of Maryland players and Maryland has some players who wanted to be recruited by Penn State. Maryland played hard and played well in that game.

Now, at 5-4 can they toe the line and answer the bell again, or will they have a little dropoff? Maryland has a lot of incentive; they are trying to become bowl eligible. But football rhythms would indicate that Maryland might be due for a letdown. Locksley is on the lookout for it and is complimenting his players for having played hard all year. Now, November is for contenders. Michigan State is contending for a division championship and needs to step it up; Maryland is contending for bowl eligibility and needs to do the same.


MARYLAND’S RUSHING DEFENSE


Rushing Yards vs Maryland In Recent Games:

Penn State 93 on 33 attempts (2.8 per carry)
Indiana 204 on 42 attempts (4.9 per carry).
Minnesota 326 yards on 56 attempts (5.8 per carry).
Ohio State 166 yards on 33 attempts (5.0 per carry).
Iowa 145 yards on 42 carries (3.5 per carry).

Minnesota beat Maryland with simple, physical inside (and occasional) outside zone plays. Maryland’s safeties are better at correct-shoulder team leverage than they showed that day. Linebacking gap “knack” was poor at that time. It’s a big better now, but they need to stay focused and driven to stop Michigan State and Kenneth Walker III.

Locksley said teams were going to keep running the ball against the Terps until they proved they could stop the run, and Maryland did it last week, but the pass game got away from them.

“We played the run well against Penn State, but the flip side is we gave up too many yards in the pass game,” he said.

LINEBACKERS

LB 11 RUBEN HYPPOLITE (6-0, 230, Soph., Davie, Fla.)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 61 in Florida.

* Spring commitment.

* Plays like a stand-up DE at times, as a wide nine.

+ Good bull pass rush to press the pocket from the edge on third down in the first quarter against PSU.

* Pretty good strength to go with start&stop athleticism on this guy.

* Solid shoulder-first hitter.

* Good closing speed on the scrape.


LB 19 AHMAD McCULLOUGH (6-2, 225, Jr., Baltimore)
* Three-star recruit out of Hutchinson CC.

+ Solid run stuff on a third-and-two for a gain of 1 against Indiana in the 2Q.

- A little slow at reading flow sideline-to-sideline at times.

- Got out of his gap while trying to knack where the ball was going to go on an outside zone play to the weak side. Picking a gap is difficult sometimes for an inside LB to do behind two-gapping defensive linemen. He struggled with it; struggled several times vs Minnesota trying to figure out which gap he was supposed to fit.

- Was involved in a coverage bust 18-yard TD to Indiana TE Hendershot in the fourth quarter. Maryland’s defense kind of went on a mental vacation after going up 35-20 and let Indiana back in it with a pair of busts on that quick-answer TD drive.


LB 4 DEMEIOUN ROBINSON (6-4, 250, Fr., Gaithersburg, Md.)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 8 in Maryland.

* Spring commitment also had offers from Alabama and Clemson.

* Was named to ESPN’s mid-season True Freshman All-America team this year.


(LB Branden Jennings, 6-3, 235, Fr., Jacksonville, Fla.)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 18 in Maryland.

* Has been out with a lower body injury since the Kent State game on Sept. 25. Prior to that he was a starter, and also was named to ESPN’s mid-season True Freshman All-America team).

* Practiced last week but had a setback. Locksley said he practiced this week.

* I haven’t seen film on him.

21 Gerem Spraggins (6-3, 250, Soph., Severn, Md)
- lost his gap on an inside zone in the 3Q against Penn State, allowing a ground gain of 15.


DEFENSIVE BACKS

* Allowed 11 catches for 242 yards to Penn State WR Dotson, with three TDs. The 242 yards is a Penn State school record.

* Maryland allowed PSU to convert 10 of 18 on third down.

* Indiana hit Maryland with a 31-yard delayed release throwback to the TE. Maryland was in cover-four and carried the other threats downfield, opening up a vacuum for the delayed release TE throwback.


GUESS THE GAMEPLAN

* Penn State had success with shallow crossers on third down against man-to-man. Michigan State hasn’t been great with shallow crossing routes this year, but this could be the week to get that going.

* Maryland does the usual array of pass coverages, from man-to-man to cover-four zone, but they don’t seem to try to disguise anything.

* They play a lot of man-to-man on third down, and they don’t disguise it. That makes it easier for the QB and the route runners. Their coverage guys aren’t bad, but this approach to pass defense doesn’t help their cause.

They will get beat in man-to-man and grab shirts to try to stay alive. At least they did against PSU. Are MSU’s WRs that good to draw holding penalties from the Maryland CBs? Maybe not, without Nailor. We’ll see. (as for holding penalties, the Maryland DBs usually got away with it. The officials didn’t see it or didn’t think jerseys were being grabbed quite enough to flag it).



CB 2 JAKORIAN BENNETT (5-11, 195, Sr., Mobile, Ala.)
* Transfer from Hutchinson (Kan.) Community College.

* Leads all Power Five teams in pass break-ups per game.

+ Really good pass break-up on a comeback to Indiana’s Ty Frygogle in the 3Q. Excellent drop and break on the ball out of press.

+ Good break on the ball out of cover-four for a near INT on a deep comeback early in the PSU game.

- Missed tackle high on a third-and-7 short out last week, allowing the conversion.

- Got beat deep last week by a step when Maryland went blitz/cover zero (no safeties). But QB Clifford overthrew WR Washington.

- Allowed 21-yard TD on a post vs cover-four zone to WR Dotson of PSU last week. Bennett lost outside leverage on the play, got twisted up, but wasn’t going to have enough safety help even if he did maintain proper leverage.


CB 12 TARHEEB STILL (6-0, 185, Soph., Sickerville, NJ)

* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 14 in New Jersey.

- Beaten by Dotson as the No. 3 WR in man-to-man on third down in the 3Q, but got away with holding Dotson’s jersey.

* Will shift back into safety when on the same side of the field as 2.

* Pretty nifty blitzer should have had a sack in the 3Q last week, but missed it and QB Clifford found a RB valve for 10 yards.

+ Knocked away a deep shot for Fryfogle against Indiana in the 1Q. Good coverage.



S 3 NICK CROSS (6-1, 215, Jr., Bowie, Md.)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 2 in Maryland.

* Committed after signing day. Also took official visits to Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida State.

* Was Honorable Mention All-Big Ten last year.

* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 14 in New Jersey.

- Allowed a 30-yard completion on an over route last week, but his coverage wasn’t bad. Very good pass by PSU’s Clifford.

- Turned inside out by WR Dotson of PSU last week on a post-and-go double move for a 38-yard TD. In cover-four zone.

+ Pretty lively hitter and good speed tackler in pursuit.


S 18 JORDAN MOSLEY (6-1, 205, Sr., Havertown, Pa.)
* Three-star recruit, ranked No. 22 in Alabama.

* Signed with Northwestern as a WR over mid-majors.

* Has played all four years at Maryland. Three-year starter.

* Strong, mobile frame on this guy.

+ Huge hit on PSU’s WR Parker Washington last week on a corner route.


NB 14 Isaiah Hazel (6-1, 205, Jr., Largo, Md.)
* Nickel man, plays a lot of man-to-man in the slot. He had trouble against PSU’s No. 3 WR. Can Michigan State put Jayden Reed in the slot and get a favorable matchup against 14 on third down when Maryland is in man-to-man?

Maryland will put No. 2 in the slot at times to cover your best WR, but they won’t do it all day. There aren’t a lot of mismatch opportunities out here for Reed, but Michigan State will move him around and probe.



SPECIAL TEAMS

* Maryland kicker missed an extra point last week that should have tied the game at 7-7 at halftime. He missed a 40-yarder vs Indiana that would have created a 17-0 lead.

* Kicker made a 41-yarder with 1:20 left against Indiana to provide a 10-point lead and basically ice the game. Hit a 48-yarder against Minnesota.

* Indiana blocked a punt against Maryland two weeks ago, getting pressure up the middle.

* Maryland blocked field goals against Illinois and Minnesota.


ADD IT ALL UP

If Tagovailoa is unbothered by the weather, and Michigan State hasn’t tightened any screws in pass defense since last week, then the Spartans had better be prepared to score at least 34 to win.

In normal circumstances, I think Michigan State would have a good chance of getting those screws tightened. But getting it done amid injury problems at cornerback is a bit troubling. It will be interesting to see who emerges as the No. 3 CB if Brantley and Marqui Lowery aren’t able to go. I have no info on Lowery. We haven’t seen him since he left the Michigan game.

Tagovailoa will hold the ball a little longer than O’Connell, and although Maryland’s pass pro isn’t bad, it is not as good as Michigan’s. So the Spartans have a chance to get the pass rush revved up for the first time in a few weeks, but are Slade, Panasiuk and Beesley healthy and ready to fire? I think Panasiuk is.

Maryland’s run support at safety and linebacker has been leaky at times this year. After the loss in somewhat of a rivalry game at Penn State, and now coming on the road on a grass surface, possibly with some cold rain, definitely with temperatures uncomfortable, and whatever fans are at the Stadium are likely to be loud, is Maryland ready to answer the bell and throw haymakers? Is Maryland ready to take additional steps in run defense, or will they have a relapse now that they aren’t playing Penn State anymore?

Some of the zone plays and bouncy RBs that Minnesota had success with against Maryland reminded me a little bit of Kenneth Walker III’s style and vision. MSU’s run game might match up well against this outfit, and it’s possible the Spartans could be due for something north of 225 yards rushing. That’s what needed to happen last week, but the run game misfired just enough to dig a hole for the Spartans while the pass defense failed.

If Maryland gets into a rhythm, Tagovailoa can play high-speed keepaway quite well, especially if MSU’s pass defense is still a deer in the headlights. I just want to see him do it with a cold football.

How much improvement can Michigan State’s pass defense make in one week? Well, if Michigan State is good in the red zone on both sides of the ball and Kenneth Walker III gets off for at least 175, and Thorne throws well enough, then the Spartans should be able to win even if they give up 300 yards passing. As long as they stop the run, as most teams do against Maryland.

Special teams could swing the game. A strange bounce or call could swing it. MSU’s offensive balance, run game, and run defense should give the Spartans the edge as long as the pass defense doesn’t have another pratfall.

In a neutral environment, Michigan State might have trouble in a shootout with these guys. At home, in the cold, on grass, with Michigan State probably grouchier than Maryland, the Spartans have more to play for, and you would assume will execute just well enough. But this is a difficult game with a lot to lose for Michigan State.

https://i.pinimg.com/564x/cc/24/d5/cc24d57b443c52af73a3a3b5d1b00003--pens-hockey-hockey-mom.jpg

Great Shutout from him! 5 straight shutout periods

Deridder in goal. Lewandowski was back tonight and scored.