I was confident that the Spartans could handle the Boilermakers at home this week and it feels really good to be right. The updated Big Ten odds following Tuesday night's action are shown below. The
data and stats tracker has also been fully updated:
As expected, Michigan still has a lead (67%) and Michigan State and Wisconsin are truly in a dead heat with the second best odds (34.2%). Maryland (6.2%) now has better odds than Purdue (4.1%) and in Big Ten after dark action, Minnesota upset UCLA on the road, which effectively knocks the Bruins out of the race entirely. I technically have their odds at 1-in-4,000.
The numbers are also looking good once again for the Spartans to finish in the top four with a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament. I calculate those odds at 84%. The Spartans will most likely be joined in the top four by Michigan and Wisconsin with Purdue and Maryland fighting for the final double bye.
Going forward, here are the odds and projected spreads for MSU's five remaining games.
The Spartans continue to control their own destiney, but next up are two tough road games where MSU will likely be slight underdog. Beating Michigan on Friday would be HUGE, as Michigan State would still control their own destiney and could even lose one of the three following games (at Maryland, versus Wisconsin, or at Iowa) and still control their own destiney.
Here is another way to look at things. If MSU can run the table (only a 4% chance) and finish 17-3, they would win a solo Big Ten title
If MSU loses just one more game to finish at 16-4 (a 19% chance) a Big Ten title is very likely (93%). The only scenario where MSU does NOT earn a Big Ten title is if the Spartans split with Michigan and the Wolverines win all four or their other remaining games (at Nebraska, Rutgers, Illinois, and Maryland), which only has a 17% chance.
But if the Spartans only win three of their final five games to finish at 15-5 (a 34% chance) things get really dicey. In the unlikely scenario that MSU beats Wisconsin and Michigan twice, but loses at Maryland and at Iowa, MSU would still at least share a title as long as Michigan loses on additional game (83% odds, as mentioned above).
If Michigan State were to lose to Wisconsin (in addition to one other game, such as at Maryland), the Badgers would control their destiney and would just need to win out. The problem is that Wisconsin has the easiest remaining Big Ten schedule (Oregon, Washington, at Minnesota, Penn State). I give them a 58% chance to finish at 16-4 IF they beat MSU.
If MSU were to split with Michigan and then lose another game (such as at Maryland), Michigan would need to drop at least two of their non-MSU remaining games. Oddly, I calculate the odds for Michigan to go 3-1 or better in these four games to be equal to Wisconsin's odds to run the table: 58%.
If MSU splits with Michigan and loses to Wisconsin, it is the worst of both of the scenarios above. Wisconsin would need to drop at least one other game (42% odds) and Michigan would need to drop at least two other games (42% odds). Simple math says that there is just an 18% chance that both of these things occur.
The bottom line is that MSU still needs to finish strong and win at least four of the last five to have a good chance to hang a banner.
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