I looked back quickly at early 2017 to get a guage of 2022 MSU and what to potentially expect. Of course its week 1, so much can change as we go through the year game-by-game. But the Spartans did play the Broncos in early 2017, so I wanted to re-examine that 2017 game, Additionally, an overview of the rosters and remaining schedule was another element. The team in 2017 came into the year following a disastrous 2016 season and with many questions. I think this team lines up well with the Lewerke led team, though with different attributes. I believe this is a slightly better Spartan team, but the schedule a bit tougher - though ND was on the schedule that year, the 3rd game.
Michigan State beat Western Michigan by a mere 28-14 on 9/9/17 - its second game of that year. You may remember that Western had a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by Darius Phillips that year that put a scare into the fans. The Broncos finished the season 6–6 in 2017, the year Fleck left for Minnesota. Lost several close games though. It still had plenty of talent though as Fleck had recruited very well. But the 2022 version, despite roster losses, is deeper and more seasoned. I am confident the Spartans beat a better version of Western Michigan on Friday versus 2017.
To put it in perspective, that 2017 Bronco team did lose a lot of talent and was an +, average MAC team. It ended up 6-6. The 2021 WMU team went 8-4 and was better than the 2017 team by nearly every statistical measure, even beating Pitt. The Broncos finished 12th in the nation in 2021 for total offense and averaged 32.5 points per game with a great running attack. For 2022, most analysts were predicting another 8 win season despite the slightly more difficult schedule and the loss of QB Kaleb Eleby, playmaking WR Skyy Moore, and 3 offensive lineman. Solid Eleasah Anderson transferred in to start at left tackle while Jake Gideon took over at center. The OL has good depth. Their OL looked very stable last night, outside of keeping Jacoby away from the QB. The rushing combination of Sean Tyler and La’Darius Jefferson came back this year. These two combined for close to 2,000 yards with 19 touchdowns with the speed of Tyler and power of Jefferson working in a good rotation. We saw that Friday, its a strong pair of RBs behind a decent line.
The Broncos finished last year 12th in the nation in total offense and averaged 32.5 points per game thanks to a strong rushing offense and good balance. The 2021 defense was also stellar - finished first in the MAC in total defense. With 7 starters back, including all 3 LBs. expectations were the Broncos would be top 3 in the conference. For the line, Purdue transfer Bryce Austin came in to develop a solid combo with solid Braden Fiske. Corners were solid last night as expected, despite dealing with newcomers Coleman and Bernard. Dorian Jackson and Purdue transfer Anthony Romphf held their own and the safeties played well.
Comparing the 2 teams, 2022 version of Western Michigan is better than the 2017 team on both sides. Lets examine what happened in each game. Lewerke rushed for two touchdowns in 2017– including a 61-yard scamper in the first quarter. But his stats were not great overall. He was 13/21 for 161 yards, 1 touchdown. Thorne was 12/24 for 233 yards with 4 touchdowns. Both threw 1 pick.
LJ Scott had 18 carries for 86 yards in the 2017 game. MSU did have 290 yards rushing in the 2017 game, but the RBs Scott and Holmes had just over 100. They averaged 4.4 a carry vs. Western Michigan in 2017 game. It was Lewerke and a long run by WR Derrell Stewart that made the difference and upped the overall and yards-per-carry. Passing yards were 231 Friday night vs, 161.in 2017 as Coleman outperformed Felton Davis. That is a good stat and gives us a hint of his potential and how double covering Reed will prove difficult. The 4 wides' of 2022 of Reed, Coleman, Bernard, and Moseley could be lethal as the season progresses. The Spartans just need some increased accuracy from Thorne. FYI, the 4 wides' in 2017? Davis, Stewart, White, Rison. Which 4 would you take for an entire season? Also of note, Lewerke finished the 2017 year with a 59% completion rate, though he made up for a lot of inaccuracy through his running capabilities.
Thorne had a 60.5% completion rate last year and merely 50% last night. He needs to get into the mid 60's, which I think he is capable of given an additional year of experience and slightly more dynamic receivers that have excellent hands. RBs Scott and Holmes/London combined for 1489 yards that 2017 season behind a very young line that did get glued together by center Brian Allen. 4 yards a carry for the entire 2017 season. Given what I saw last night, I would take the Berger/Broussard combo (plus depth behind) over the 2017 stable. Last night, the pair averaged 6.6 yards a carry against a better than 2017 Bronco defense, but looked much more elusive than a banged up Scott of 2017 IMO.
Lets quickly turn to defense. WMU had a better defense coming into this year than 2017 as indicated, as the exodus of talent graduated in Fleck's final year before he went to the Gophers. Despite this, MSU had nearly the same offensive production in yards, but more points. Defensively, the Spartans gave up 150 more yards to the Broncos in 2022 versus 2017, but give credit to Western Michigan, they are much more potent. a few broken assignments cost some big chunks of yardage. The loss of Henderson and Snow did also not help matters. Last year's Broncos averaged 458 yards per game, and most pundits had their projected numbers for 2022 around 400.
In looking at the defensive comparison, MSU had 8 returning starters on defense in 2017. But it was not all roses during Fall practice. The interior line was young (though promising), with sophomores Raequan Williams and Mike Panasiuk. The situation on the edge though was considered very precarious, as many predicted for 2022. MSU had senior Demetrius Cooper starting with unproven sophomore Kenny Willekes and redshirt freshman Brandon Randle vying for the other spot. The DL was coming off a extremely disappointing 2016 season, where QB pressure was anemic. Behind that group were Bowers, Alexander, Jones, Owens, and Stallworth. Linebackers were solid with captain Chris Frey on the strong side and junior Andrew Dowell returning on the other side. Sophomore Joe Bachie took over the middle. At the back four, sophomore Justin Layne and true freshman Josiah Scott started. Both were expected to excel, which they did. MSU also rolled out 2 new starting safeties in juniors Khari Willis and Grayson Miller. Fortunately, both did have experience. Reserves were Butler,
Smith, Morrissey, and Dowell. The defense turned out to be the star of 2017 with breakouts by Bachie, Willikes, and Scott - among others.
Given the infusion of talent from the portal, another year in the system, continued improvement in conditioning under Novak, and more depth - I feel that this defense can match the efficiency of 2017, as long as at Henderson comes back. That lauded 2017 defense ranked #32 in the country. It allowed 364 yards-per-game. Last year the Spartans ranked #54th. I think this group could easily end up in the top 40, or perhaps better if development and chemistry continue. The poor offensive ranking from last year can only improve.
Positions; (advantage) w/ 2022 early assessment -
QB; 2022
OL; 2017
WR; 2022
TE; 2022
RB; 2022
DT; Even
DE; 2022
LB; Even
CB; 2017
S; 2022 if healthy
How does the 2017 schedule look vs. 2022?
Schedule 2017;
Bowling Green
Western Michigan
Notre Dame
Iowa
at Michigan
at Minnesota
Indiana
at Northwestern
Penn State
at Ohio State
Maryland
at Rutgers
.2022
Western Michigan
Akron
at Washington
Minnesota
at Maryland
Ohio State
Wisconsin
at Michigan
at Illinois
Rutgers
Indiana
at PSU
CBS ranked the 2017 Spartan schedule as one the top-ten most difficult. The Spartans faced both highly ranked Ohio State and Michigan on the road that season, and hosted #6 pre-season ranked Penn State. As well, every team from the West finished above .500 in 2016. The Spartans hosted, of course Notre Dame as well. No wonder that MSU got only 1 AP vote that year for 2017. But the team was much stronger than expected and snuck up on teams, much like the 2021 Spartan did.
For 2022, consensus is #26, though I think that is too high given MSU pulled Minnesota and Wisconsin from the West. Both should compete for the West title. I think Minnesota is a vastly improved team and will be a tough out. At Illinois will also be not an easy win. OSU at least is at home and does not look to be the juggernaut like Georgia, at least yet. PSU remains far below the level of the 2017 team and beatable. They are ranked and expectations are not too high, but teams will play hard to knock off Tucker's new program.
The big wild cards on 9-3 vs. 8-4 or 10-2 is frankly Washington and Minnesota IMO.. I wrote up an introduction earlier on Washington -https://michiganstate.forums.rivals.com/threads/a-quick-look-at-washington-9-17.236302/#post-3177090
I'll tackle Minnesota as we approach the game.
After watching the Washington team game last night (working on defensive analysis write-up still), I think its still likely a win. But the Husky team under new head coach Kalen DeBoer looked better than I expected. Washington was a 22 point favorite (MSU was a 19 point favorite) over Kent State and they delivered a 45-20 win. Penix played very well, but after the first two series was not pressured at all. Washington gave up the same number of yards to Kent State that MSU did to Western Michigan. Their MAC power ranking vs. Western Michigan for 2022 are nearly identical. 3 interceptions and a high level of turnovers doomed the Golden Flashes vs. Washington. But the Kent State defense, which is not as good as the Broncos held Washington to only 3.7 yards-per-carry. Time of possession was nearly equal. Kent State made 10 of 17 3rd downs. Washington had only 1 sack and pressure on the QB Schlee was minimal. Thorne will have plenty of time.
Overall, I would grade out their defense a B- last night. Penix an A along with the receivers. RBs and TE a B The Spartans have better speed, tackling ability, and with Jacoby better rush potential. The Huskies have 2 very impressive WRs, but not the depth. Spartan RBs looked much better than the Huskies pair of Taulapapa and Nixon.
Finally, here are my 8 key thoughts after game 1 and comparing rosters and the schedule;
Michigan State beat Western Michigan by a mere 28-14 on 9/9/17 - its second game of that year. You may remember that Western had a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown by Darius Phillips that year that put a scare into the fans. The Broncos finished the season 6–6 in 2017, the year Fleck left for Minnesota. Lost several close games though. It still had plenty of talent though as Fleck had recruited very well. But the 2022 version, despite roster losses, is deeper and more seasoned. I am confident the Spartans beat a better version of Western Michigan on Friday versus 2017.
To put it in perspective, that 2017 Bronco team did lose a lot of talent and was an +, average MAC team. It ended up 6-6. The 2021 WMU team went 8-4 and was better than the 2017 team by nearly every statistical measure, even beating Pitt. The Broncos finished 12th in the nation in 2021 for total offense and averaged 32.5 points per game with a great running attack. For 2022, most analysts were predicting another 8 win season despite the slightly more difficult schedule and the loss of QB Kaleb Eleby, playmaking WR Skyy Moore, and 3 offensive lineman. Solid Eleasah Anderson transferred in to start at left tackle while Jake Gideon took over at center. The OL has good depth. Their OL looked very stable last night, outside of keeping Jacoby away from the QB. The rushing combination of Sean Tyler and La’Darius Jefferson came back this year. These two combined for close to 2,000 yards with 19 touchdowns with the speed of Tyler and power of Jefferson working in a good rotation. We saw that Friday, its a strong pair of RBs behind a decent line.
The Broncos finished last year 12th in the nation in total offense and averaged 32.5 points per game thanks to a strong rushing offense and good balance. The 2021 defense was also stellar - finished first in the MAC in total defense. With 7 starters back, including all 3 LBs. expectations were the Broncos would be top 3 in the conference. For the line, Purdue transfer Bryce Austin came in to develop a solid combo with solid Braden Fiske. Corners were solid last night as expected, despite dealing with newcomers Coleman and Bernard. Dorian Jackson and Purdue transfer Anthony Romphf held their own and the safeties played well.
Comparing the 2 teams, 2022 version of Western Michigan is better than the 2017 team on both sides. Lets examine what happened in each game. Lewerke rushed for two touchdowns in 2017– including a 61-yard scamper in the first quarter. But his stats were not great overall. He was 13/21 for 161 yards, 1 touchdown. Thorne was 12/24 for 233 yards with 4 touchdowns. Both threw 1 pick.
LJ Scott had 18 carries for 86 yards in the 2017 game. MSU did have 290 yards rushing in the 2017 game, but the RBs Scott and Holmes had just over 100. They averaged 4.4 a carry vs. Western Michigan in 2017 game. It was Lewerke and a long run by WR Derrell Stewart that made the difference and upped the overall and yards-per-carry. Passing yards were 231 Friday night vs, 161.in 2017 as Coleman outperformed Felton Davis. That is a good stat and gives us a hint of his potential and how double covering Reed will prove difficult. The 4 wides' of 2022 of Reed, Coleman, Bernard, and Moseley could be lethal as the season progresses. The Spartans just need some increased accuracy from Thorne. FYI, the 4 wides' in 2017? Davis, Stewart, White, Rison. Which 4 would you take for an entire season? Also of note, Lewerke finished the 2017 year with a 59% completion rate, though he made up for a lot of inaccuracy through his running capabilities.
Thorne had a 60.5% completion rate last year and merely 50% last night. He needs to get into the mid 60's, which I think he is capable of given an additional year of experience and slightly more dynamic receivers that have excellent hands. RBs Scott and Holmes/London combined for 1489 yards that 2017 season behind a very young line that did get glued together by center Brian Allen. 4 yards a carry for the entire 2017 season. Given what I saw last night, I would take the Berger/Broussard combo (plus depth behind) over the 2017 stable. Last night, the pair averaged 6.6 yards a carry against a better than 2017 Bronco defense, but looked much more elusive than a banged up Scott of 2017 IMO.
Lets quickly turn to defense. WMU had a better defense coming into this year than 2017 as indicated, as the exodus of talent graduated in Fleck's final year before he went to the Gophers. Despite this, MSU had nearly the same offensive production in yards, but more points. Defensively, the Spartans gave up 150 more yards to the Broncos in 2022 versus 2017, but give credit to Western Michigan, they are much more potent. a few broken assignments cost some big chunks of yardage. The loss of Henderson and Snow did also not help matters. Last year's Broncos averaged 458 yards per game, and most pundits had their projected numbers for 2022 around 400.
In looking at the defensive comparison, MSU had 8 returning starters on defense in 2017. But it was not all roses during Fall practice. The interior line was young (though promising), with sophomores Raequan Williams and Mike Panasiuk. The situation on the edge though was considered very precarious, as many predicted for 2022. MSU had senior Demetrius Cooper starting with unproven sophomore Kenny Willekes and redshirt freshman Brandon Randle vying for the other spot. The DL was coming off a extremely disappointing 2016 season, where QB pressure was anemic. Behind that group were Bowers, Alexander, Jones, Owens, and Stallworth. Linebackers were solid with captain Chris Frey on the strong side and junior Andrew Dowell returning on the other side. Sophomore Joe Bachie took over the middle. At the back four, sophomore Justin Layne and true freshman Josiah Scott started. Both were expected to excel, which they did. MSU also rolled out 2 new starting safeties in juniors Khari Willis and Grayson Miller. Fortunately, both did have experience. Reserves were Butler,
Smith, Morrissey, and Dowell. The defense turned out to be the star of 2017 with breakouts by Bachie, Willikes, and Scott - among others.
Given the infusion of talent from the portal, another year in the system, continued improvement in conditioning under Novak, and more depth - I feel that this defense can match the efficiency of 2017, as long as at Henderson comes back. That lauded 2017 defense ranked #32 in the country. It allowed 364 yards-per-game. Last year the Spartans ranked #54th. I think this group could easily end up in the top 40, or perhaps better if development and chemistry continue. The poor offensive ranking from last year can only improve.
Positions; (advantage) w/ 2022 early assessment -
QB; 2022
OL; 2017
WR; 2022
TE; 2022
RB; 2022
DT; Even
DE; 2022
LB; Even
CB; 2017
S; 2022 if healthy
How does the 2017 schedule look vs. 2022?
Schedule 2017;
Bowling Green
Western Michigan
Notre Dame
Iowa
at Michigan
at Minnesota
Indiana
at Northwestern
Penn State
at Ohio State
Maryland
at Rutgers
.2022
Western Michigan
Akron
at Washington
Minnesota
at Maryland
Ohio State
Wisconsin
at Michigan
at Illinois
Rutgers
Indiana
at PSU
CBS ranked the 2017 Spartan schedule as one the top-ten most difficult. The Spartans faced both highly ranked Ohio State and Michigan on the road that season, and hosted #6 pre-season ranked Penn State. As well, every team from the West finished above .500 in 2016. The Spartans hosted, of course Notre Dame as well. No wonder that MSU got only 1 AP vote that year for 2017. But the team was much stronger than expected and snuck up on teams, much like the 2021 Spartan did.
For 2022, consensus is #26, though I think that is too high given MSU pulled Minnesota and Wisconsin from the West. Both should compete for the West title. I think Minnesota is a vastly improved team and will be a tough out. At Illinois will also be not an easy win. OSU at least is at home and does not look to be the juggernaut like Georgia, at least yet. PSU remains far below the level of the 2017 team and beatable. They are ranked and expectations are not too high, but teams will play hard to knock off Tucker's new program.
The big wild cards on 9-3 vs. 8-4 or 10-2 is frankly Washington and Minnesota IMO.. I wrote up an introduction earlier on Washington -https://michiganstate.forums.rivals.com/threads/a-quick-look-at-washington-9-17.236302/#post-3177090
I'll tackle Minnesota as we approach the game.
After watching the Washington team game last night (working on defensive analysis write-up still), I think its still likely a win. But the Husky team under new head coach Kalen DeBoer looked better than I expected. Washington was a 22 point favorite (MSU was a 19 point favorite) over Kent State and they delivered a 45-20 win. Penix played very well, but after the first two series was not pressured at all. Washington gave up the same number of yards to Kent State that MSU did to Western Michigan. Their MAC power ranking vs. Western Michigan for 2022 are nearly identical. 3 interceptions and a high level of turnovers doomed the Golden Flashes vs. Washington. But the Kent State defense, which is not as good as the Broncos held Washington to only 3.7 yards-per-carry. Time of possession was nearly equal. Kent State made 10 of 17 3rd downs. Washington had only 1 sack and pressure on the QB Schlee was minimal. Thorne will have plenty of time.
Overall, I would grade out their defense a B- last night. Penix an A along with the receivers. RBs and TE a B The Spartans have better speed, tackling ability, and with Jacoby better rush potential. The Huskies have 2 very impressive WRs, but not the depth. Spartan RBs looked much better than the Huskies pair of Taulapapa and Nixon.
Finally, here are my 8 key thoughts after game 1 and comparing rosters and the schedule;
- This looks to me as a 9-3 team like 2017. 10-2 and 8-4 are also possibilities. 7-5 now becomes an outlier unless more injuries occur or other teams to be faced become more competitive.
- This offense has a much better chance to be lethal and opportunistic. The young receivers are already standing out and Berger looks to be the real deal and a 1000 rusher. TE is the best its been in years. Thorne just needs to be consistent and smart.
- DTs started out slow on Friday, but not worried yet. DE looks to be much better. Coach BT is already having an impact. LB Van Sumeren is a plus player and the overall LB group is solid. The loss of Snow really hurts, but there is enough depth for it to be a B or B+ position.
- The secondary looks better, with depth the primary asset vs last year. Ameer Speed looks fine. No major busts last night, a blessing after last year. The transfers from last year looked better and more comfortable. Tucker and the players put in a lot of effort here.
- Offensive line is still weaker than I would like. But Samac is better, Greene solid. Having Carrick back is a must. Tackles are suitable, but vulnerable to a tough DE unit.
- Staff is still highly motivated. Team seems to have chemistry and hunger. Momentum is there across the board. Yes, MSU should have been better on Friday night, but the game allowed the first real look into this team under the tight control of CMT.
- If Thorne played better without nerves, the DTs excelled, and Snow/Henderson were not out, this could have been a 30+ point win. Team mental consistency on Friday was lacking at times, letting the Broncos to hang around and put together some solid drives. Jay Johnson also underwhelmed me on the calls. He could be saving things for these key games that are soon approaching.
- The bottom line? I upped my game win 2022 total prediction by one. Time will tell if this team can improve upon that. But the road will be tough given the schedule and no K9.
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