Michigan State
Preseason FPI: No. 16ESPN's updated Way-Too-Early Top 25: No. 8
Statement game: Oct. 8 vs. Ohio State. Michigan State's 37-33 win against Michigan last fall didn't even impress the selection committee enough to honor the head-to-head result in its weekly ranking. A win against the Buckeyes would. While coach Mel Tucker made the biggest turnaround in school history in just his second season, Michigan State won't be taken seriously as a playoff contender -- or even a threat in the Big Ten East -- if it suffers another 56-7 drubbing to the Buckeyes.
Why to take them seriously: Tucker is building a culture of player accountability, and there's still talent despite losing running back Kenneth Walker III. Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger is one of several options who will help the Spartans fill that vacancy by committee. Redshirt senior receiver Jayden Reed is also poised for a breakout season and can help take some of the pressure off of the running backs.
Biggest hurdle: Surviving October. Michigan State has three straight games that will define its season before the selection committee even begins its weekly rankings: Oct. 8 vs. Ohio State, Oct. 15 vs. Wisconsin and Oct. 29 at Michigan. The Spartans will have a bye week to prepare for the rival Wolverines, and they're going to need it.
Also considered: Wisconsin, Iowa
