Here is part three of my annual simulation-based preview. Today, I go deep into the weeds on MSU's schedule:
michiganstate.rivals.com
The bottom line is that MSU has a tough schedule and just getting to 6-6 will be a bit of a challenge. MSU has four top 10 teams on the schedule (Michigan, OSU, PSU, and Washington) and plays two other borderline top 25 teams on the road (Iowa and Minnesota). So, MSU will need to steal some wins in that group of six games OR run the table on the other six just to become bowl eligible. The Spartans project to be favored in all six of those other games, but the spread will be tight in four of them. The margin of error is small. It always amazes me, but my calculations basically spit back out the exact over/under for regular season wins that the online casinos are showing (5.5).
That all said, there is still a lot that we do not know about all of these teams. MSU could wind up being a lot better than people believe right now. Also, some of those top 10/25 teams on the schedule might wind up being overrated (or suffer a spate of injuries). That could push MSU's expected win total up by a few games. Stuff like that happens all the time. But... it is also possible that MSU is actually worse than expected which could result in something like the 2016 season. The odds for some of the more disastrous outcomes are also significant.
Spartans Illustrated - Dr. Green and White Analysis: Michigan State's 2023 schedule
What can math tell us about how many wins Spartan fans are likely to see in 2023 and the different paths to get there?
michiganstate.rivals.com
The bottom line is that MSU has a tough schedule and just getting to 6-6 will be a bit of a challenge. MSU has four top 10 teams on the schedule (Michigan, OSU, PSU, and Washington) and plays two other borderline top 25 teams on the road (Iowa and Minnesota). So, MSU will need to steal some wins in that group of six games OR run the table on the other six just to become bowl eligible. The Spartans project to be favored in all six of those other games, but the spread will be tight in four of them. The margin of error is small. It always amazes me, but my calculations basically spit back out the exact over/under for regular season wins that the online casinos are showing (5.5).
That all said, there is still a lot that we do not know about all of these teams. MSU could wind up being a lot better than people believe right now. Also, some of those top 10/25 teams on the schedule might wind up being overrated (or suffer a spate of injuries). That could push MSU's expected win total up by a few games. Stuff like that happens all the time. But... it is also possible that MSU is actually worse than expected which could result in something like the 2016 season. The odds for some of the more disastrous outcomes are also significant.
