With Maryland's win over Michigan on Wednesday night, the Michigan State Spartans locked up both a share of the regular season Big Ten title as well as the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Coach Tom Izzo has now tied the all-time record with his 11th regular season title.
Michigan State can earn an outright title with either a win at Iowa tonight or a win over Michigan on Sunday. With the Spartans' place in the title hunt now settled, it is time to shift focus the to post-season, starting with the Big Ten Tournament.
Let's take a look at the possible scenarios for seeding after the Michigan State Spartans.
If Michigan is able to upset the Spartans in the regular season finale, the Wolverines would claim the No. 2 seed. But if the Spartans prevail as expected, there is the possibility for a multiple team tie for second place at 14-6 between Michigan, Maryland, Purdue, and Wisconsin.
The key remaining games other than the one in East Lansing are:
The tie is broken by going down the standing to 8th place Illinois, which would give Purdue the No. 3 seed and Michigan the No. 4 seed.
Of the three non-Michigan based contenders for the top four seeds, Purdue is the most likely to lose at Illinois. In this scenario, the Boilermakers would slide to the No. 5 seed and the relative position of the other three teams would be the same as in the four-way tie. Maryland would get the No. 2 seed, Michigan would get the No. 3 seed, and Wisconsin would get the No. 4 seed.
For the top five seeds, there are only five remaining games that will impact seeding. This means there are only 32 different scenarios. I have calculated the tiebreakers and odds for all 32 scenarios here:
I performed a similar analysis on the middle of the bracket. It turns out that five games and 32 scenarios also covers all of the cases for seeds No. 6 to No. 10. The scenarios and odds are shown below
Michigan State has already claimed the No. 1 seed, and on Friday they will face the winner of the game between the No. 8 seed and the No. 9 seed. The scenario for the No. 9 seed is simple: it will be the winner of the game on Saturday between Ohio State and Indiana (-1).
As for the No. 8 seed, Oregon lands in that spot in most cases. However, if Oregon beats Washington and if Purdue beats Illinois, the Fighting Illini will end up as the No. 8 seed.
Finally, table below shows the 32 scenarios that fully define the odds for seeds No. 11 to No. 15.
The bottom of the bracket is quite messy. The most notable feature is that Iowa can still make the Big Ten Tournament, even if they get blown out by Michigan State tonight.
I will update these tables as the results come in over the next few days.
Michigan State can earn an outright title with either a win at Iowa tonight or a win over Michigan on Sunday. With the Spartans' place in the title hunt now settled, it is time to shift focus the to post-season, starting with the Big Ten Tournament.
Let's take a look at the possible scenarios for seeding after the Michigan State Spartans.
If Michigan is able to upset the Spartans in the regular season finale, the Wolverines would claim the No. 2 seed. But if the Spartans prevail as expected, there is the possibility for a multiple team tie for second place at 14-6 between Michigan, Maryland, Purdue, and Wisconsin.
The key remaining games other than the one in East Lansing are:
- Northwestern at Maryland (-9.5)
- Penn State at Wisconsin (-13)
- Purdue at Illinois (-2.5)
The tie is broken by going down the standing to 8th place Illinois, which would give Purdue the No. 3 seed and Michigan the No. 4 seed.
Of the three non-Michigan based contenders for the top four seeds, Purdue is the most likely to lose at Illinois. In this scenario, the Boilermakers would slide to the No. 5 seed and the relative position of the other three teams would be the same as in the four-way tie. Maryland would get the No. 2 seed, Michigan would get the No. 3 seed, and Wisconsin would get the No. 4 seed.
For the top five seeds, there are only five remaining games that will impact seeding. This means there are only 32 different scenarios. I have calculated the tiebreakers and odds for all 32 scenarios here:
I performed a similar analysis on the middle of the bracket. It turns out that five games and 32 scenarios also covers all of the cases for seeds No. 6 to No. 10. The scenarios and odds are shown below
Michigan State has already claimed the No. 1 seed, and on Friday they will face the winner of the game between the No. 8 seed and the No. 9 seed. The scenario for the No. 9 seed is simple: it will be the winner of the game on Saturday between Ohio State and Indiana (-1).
As for the No. 8 seed, Oregon lands in that spot in most cases. However, if Oregon beats Washington and if Purdue beats Illinois, the Fighting Illini will end up as the No. 8 seed.
Finally, table below shows the 32 scenarios that fully define the odds for seeds No. 11 to No. 15.
The bottom of the bracket is quite messy. The most notable feature is that Iowa can still make the Big Ten Tournament, even if they get blown out by Michigan State tonight.
I will update these tables as the results come in over the next few days.
