Happy March Spartan fans!
I am not going to lie, but I was a bit freaked out last night at half time. I had the road game at Nebraska circled on my calendar for a while now as a potential short-turn around trap game. After the last-second loss at Iowa, I was pretty worried that the team would be flat. They were, but fortunately only for 20 minutes.
With the win, I am pretty convinced that MSU is locked into the NCAA Tournament. The absolute worst record that MSU could take into Selection Sunday is 18-13 with at least six Q1 wins (depending on where Iowa and Rutgers finish in the NET). It is an important box to check.
Now, MSU is playing for seeding. There are 12 Big Ten regular season games to go and therefore 4096 different ways that the season could still play out. I am going to use this thread for the next few days to provide "live" updates on Big Ten Tournament seeding. Based on the results last night, here is the updated seeding odds for the BTT and the odds for Michigan State's first BTT opponent:
I had to chuckle last night when BTN showed the "if the season ended now" BTT bracket. Look at the figure above. Roughly EIGHT teams could still finish anywhere from the No. 2 seed to the No. 9 seed and the odds of any individual placement are rarely over 20%. There are roughly 1,600 different unique brackets that could still happen. Yes, Michigan is currently in second place, but the Wolverines have only about a 35% chance to earn a double bye, let alone the No. 2 seed.
As for Michigan State, the Spartans are now trending strongly to the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. If we consider that Purdue is virtually locked into the No. 1 seed and teams like Iowa and Northwestern are floating around near the No. 2 and No. 3 seed spot, I am 100% OK with that.
With just one game left, there are only two ways the regular season could end for the Spartans as so those odds are pretty easy to calculate:
If MSU beats the Buckeyes on senior day Saturday afternoon, the No. 6 or No. 7 seeds become even more likely. If this event, Wisconsin and Penn State are the Spartans' most likely first opponent on Thursday evening in the Big Ten Tournament. If Michigan State were to lose to Ohio State, the No. 9 or No. 8 seed is virtually locked in. In these scenarios, Illinois and Rutgers are the most likely first opponents, with Michigan also a possibility.
There is still a chance that Michigan State could finish with as high as the No. 3 seed, but those odds are extremely small (about 1 in 2,000). The No. 4 seed is still on the table, but I am not convinced that is actually better for the Spartans with Purdue looming as the No. 1 seed. Then again, my data does tell me that MSU's odds to win the Tournament are slightly better with the double bye. As for the No. 5 seed? That is a bad draw this year. There is no double bye and a potential match-up with Purdue on Saturday. The math says that the No. 6 or No. 7 seed DOES give MSU better tournament odds than the No. 5 seed in most scenarios.
On Wednesday evening, there are two Big Ten games that will impact the overall seeding landscape Ohio State hosts Maryland (-2) and Northwestern (-3.5) hosts Penn State. Who should MSU fans root for? Here is what the numbers say:
If you really want a shot at the double bye, Ohio State winning tonight is critcal. The math says that the potential benefit of the No. 4 seed does make rooting for both underdogs tonight a slightly better scenario for the Spartans. Michigan State's odds to win the BTT tick up very slightly. If Maryland gets the win in Columbus, the odds for the No. 3 seed go to zero and odds for the No. 4 seed drop to about 1 in 400. If both Maryland and Northwestern win, MSU is locked into a seed between No. 5 and No. 9.
If the goal is avoiding Purdue, however, a win by Maryland actually helps this cause, as the odds for the No. 6 and No. 7 seed both go up.
For completeness, the figure below shows the updated overall Big Ten Tournament odds.
Michigan State is now up to No. 25 in Kenpom. Only Purdue and Maryland have higher rankings. This suggests that MSU will be favored to beat any of the other 11 Big Ten teams on a neutral court. As a result, the Spartan's BTT odds have ticked up to around 7%.
I am not going to lie, but I was a bit freaked out last night at half time. I had the road game at Nebraska circled on my calendar for a while now as a potential short-turn around trap game. After the last-second loss at Iowa, I was pretty worried that the team would be flat. They were, but fortunately only for 20 minutes.
With the win, I am pretty convinced that MSU is locked into the NCAA Tournament. The absolute worst record that MSU could take into Selection Sunday is 18-13 with at least six Q1 wins (depending on where Iowa and Rutgers finish in the NET). It is an important box to check.
Now, MSU is playing for seeding. There are 12 Big Ten regular season games to go and therefore 4096 different ways that the season could still play out. I am going to use this thread for the next few days to provide "live" updates on Big Ten Tournament seeding. Based on the results last night, here is the updated seeding odds for the BTT and the odds for Michigan State's first BTT opponent:
I had to chuckle last night when BTN showed the "if the season ended now" BTT bracket. Look at the figure above. Roughly EIGHT teams could still finish anywhere from the No. 2 seed to the No. 9 seed and the odds of any individual placement are rarely over 20%. There are roughly 1,600 different unique brackets that could still happen. Yes, Michigan is currently in second place, but the Wolverines have only about a 35% chance to earn a double bye, let alone the No. 2 seed.
As for Michigan State, the Spartans are now trending strongly to the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. If we consider that Purdue is virtually locked into the No. 1 seed and teams like Iowa and Northwestern are floating around near the No. 2 and No. 3 seed spot, I am 100% OK with that.
With just one game left, there are only two ways the regular season could end for the Spartans as so those odds are pretty easy to calculate:
If MSU beats the Buckeyes on senior day Saturday afternoon, the No. 6 or No. 7 seeds become even more likely. If this event, Wisconsin and Penn State are the Spartans' most likely first opponent on Thursday evening in the Big Ten Tournament. If Michigan State were to lose to Ohio State, the No. 9 or No. 8 seed is virtually locked in. In these scenarios, Illinois and Rutgers are the most likely first opponents, with Michigan also a possibility.
There is still a chance that Michigan State could finish with as high as the No. 3 seed, but those odds are extremely small (about 1 in 2,000). The No. 4 seed is still on the table, but I am not convinced that is actually better for the Spartans with Purdue looming as the No. 1 seed. Then again, my data does tell me that MSU's odds to win the Tournament are slightly better with the double bye. As for the No. 5 seed? That is a bad draw this year. There is no double bye and a potential match-up with Purdue on Saturday. The math says that the No. 6 or No. 7 seed DOES give MSU better tournament odds than the No. 5 seed in most scenarios.
On Wednesday evening, there are two Big Ten games that will impact the overall seeding landscape Ohio State hosts Maryland (-2) and Northwestern (-3.5) hosts Penn State. Who should MSU fans root for? Here is what the numbers say:
If you really want a shot at the double bye, Ohio State winning tonight is critcal. The math says that the potential benefit of the No. 4 seed does make rooting for both underdogs tonight a slightly better scenario for the Spartans. Michigan State's odds to win the BTT tick up very slightly. If Maryland gets the win in Columbus, the odds for the No. 3 seed go to zero and odds for the No. 4 seed drop to about 1 in 400. If both Maryland and Northwestern win, MSU is locked into a seed between No. 5 and No. 9.
If the goal is avoiding Purdue, however, a win by Maryland actually helps this cause, as the odds for the No. 6 and No. 7 seed both go up.
For completeness, the figure below shows the updated overall Big Ten Tournament odds.
Michigan State is now up to No. 25 in Kenpom. Only Purdue and Maryland have higher rankings. This suggests that MSU will be favored to beat any of the other 11 Big Ten teams on a neutral court. As a result, the Spartan's BTT odds have ticked up to around 7%.
