Over the last few years, I have developed a rigorous process to make some math-informed picks for the full tournament. I have finished crunching all of the numbers and the results are below
michiganstate.rivals.com
Here are some general observations.
When I go through the numbers, Houston is the most likely No. 1 seed to make the Final Four and they wound up being my pick to win it all. Purdue is the second mostly likely team to make it, but they are not going to make. Let’s be serious. And putting Tennessee as the No. 2 seed in that region is hilarious. There is some serious choker vibes going on in the Midwest. So, I have No. 3 Creighton advancing.
UConn got a really, really tough draw and I have Auburn (the biggest underdog on the board and my pick as the National Runner Up) knocking them out. In the West, UNC is a really weak No. 1 seed. I have No. 2 Arizona surviving.
In general, the double-digit seeds are weak this year and I predict a lower number of exciting first round upsets. The last three tournaments have been anomalous in this regard. I expect 2024 to regress to the mean.
As for MSU, I have them beating Mississippi State, UNC, and then Alabama before falling to Arizona in the Regional Final. This is purely based on my mathematical analysis. No, really!
The fact is that MSU’s metrics suggest that the Spartans are more similar to a No. 4 or No. 5 seed than a No. 9 seed. The Spartans’ rebounding and defense have been quietly improving. Walker looks fully healthy. The problem is that MSU has struggled to shoot.
Imagine what happens if Akins gets hot, Hoggard is focused, a healthily Walker is in killer mode, and Hall is fully engaged? All of a sudden, this team looks a lot more like the top 5 team we all thought that we would see. My math expects that team to emerge tomorrow.
Will this happen? It is hard to say. But Tom Izzo is still on the bench, and more times than not, this is his time to work some magic.
Spartans Illustrated - Dr. Green and White March Madness Advice, Part Two: Bracket Breakdown
We used a little math to identify the most likely NCAA Tournament upsets all the way to the championship game.
michiganstate.rivals.com
Here are some general observations.
When I go through the numbers, Houston is the most likely No. 1 seed to make the Final Four and they wound up being my pick to win it all. Purdue is the second mostly likely team to make it, but they are not going to make. Let’s be serious. And putting Tennessee as the No. 2 seed in that region is hilarious. There is some serious choker vibes going on in the Midwest. So, I have No. 3 Creighton advancing.
UConn got a really, really tough draw and I have Auburn (the biggest underdog on the board and my pick as the National Runner Up) knocking them out. In the West, UNC is a really weak No. 1 seed. I have No. 2 Arizona surviving.
In general, the double-digit seeds are weak this year and I predict a lower number of exciting first round upsets. The last three tournaments have been anomalous in this regard. I expect 2024 to regress to the mean.
As for MSU, I have them beating Mississippi State, UNC, and then Alabama before falling to Arizona in the Regional Final. This is purely based on my mathematical analysis. No, really!
The fact is that MSU’s metrics suggest that the Spartans are more similar to a No. 4 or No. 5 seed than a No. 9 seed. The Spartans’ rebounding and defense have been quietly improving. Walker looks fully healthy. The problem is that MSU has struggled to shoot.
Imagine what happens if Akins gets hot, Hoggard is focused, a healthily Walker is in killer mode, and Hall is fully engaged? All of a sudden, this team looks a lot more like the top 5 team we all thought that we would see. My math expects that team to emerge tomorrow.
Will this happen? It is hard to say. But Tom Izzo is still on the bench, and more times than not, this is his time to work some magic.
