I will plan to write a little more about the latest set of data, but for now here is a quick update on MSU's title odds after the big win over Minnesota.
The Spartans opened up a slightly larger lead over Purdue that is roughly 60% to 40% now. The win over Minnesota only moved the needle slightly. MSU got a bigger bump because by blowing the Gophers out they got a metrics bump which gooses the odds for furture games a bit.
FYI, the data and odds tracker is now fully updated for those who want more data now
I will throw out two other tidbits for today. First, there has been a lot of moaning that MSU has played a weak conference schedule. That is true, but so are a lot of other things. Here is my latest tweet on the topics:
While it is mathmatically true that MSU has played the weakest schedule, Purdue has actually played the second weakest schedule. More importantly, if I calculate the "strength of resume" for each team in Big Ten play, MSU (+3.33) is better than the nearest competitor (Purdue) by over a full game.
Second, I ran the numbers related to when Coach Izzo is going to break Bobby Knight's Big Ten win record. Here are the numbers:
-at UCLA on Peacock after midnight EST on 2/4 = 36%
-In Breslin vs. Oregon on Fox at ~2pm on 2/8 = 37%
-In Breslin vs. IU on Peacock at ~11 pm on 2/11 = 20%
-Later in the season = 7%
Obviously, it would be best if MSU wins the next two to go 11-0 and breaks the record at UCLA in Pauly Pavilion. That would be cool. But the game tips at 10 pm and is on Peacock...
The most likely scenario (barely) is that MSU drops one game in L.A. but is able to break the record at home against Oregon. Being at home is good and being on Fox at noon on a Saturday game is even better. This would be a spectacle.
Even is MSU stumbles and somehow only wins one game in the next three, there is a very good chance that MSU could break the record at home against Bobby Knight's old team in Indiana. No MSU fan would root for this outcomes, but the setup would still be pretty cool. That game is also on Peacock, though, which would dull the excitment significantly.
All three of these outcomes have some benefit.
The Spartans opened up a slightly larger lead over Purdue that is roughly 60% to 40% now. The win over Minnesota only moved the needle slightly. MSU got a bigger bump because by blowing the Gophers out they got a metrics bump which gooses the odds for furture games a bit.
FYI, the data and odds tracker is now fully updated for those who want more data now
I will throw out two other tidbits for today. First, there has been a lot of moaning that MSU has played a weak conference schedule. That is true, but so are a lot of other things. Here is my latest tweet on the topics:
While it is mathmatically true that MSU has played the weakest schedule, Purdue has actually played the second weakest schedule. More importantly, if I calculate the "strength of resume" for each team in Big Ten play, MSU (+3.33) is better than the nearest competitor (Purdue) by over a full game.
Second, I ran the numbers related to when Coach Izzo is going to break Bobby Knight's Big Ten win record. Here are the numbers:
-at UCLA on Peacock after midnight EST on 2/4 = 36%
-In Breslin vs. Oregon on Fox at ~2pm on 2/8 = 37%
-In Breslin vs. IU on Peacock at ~11 pm on 2/11 = 20%
-Later in the season = 7%
Obviously, it would be best if MSU wins the next two to go 11-0 and breaks the record at UCLA in Pauly Pavilion. That would be cool. But the game tips at 10 pm and is on Peacock...
The most likely scenario (barely) is that MSU drops one game in L.A. but is able to break the record at home against Oregon. Being at home is good and being on Fox at noon on a Saturday game is even better. This would be a spectacle.
Even is MSU stumbles and somehow only wins one game in the next three, there is a very good chance that MSU could break the record at home against Bobby Knight's old team in Indiana. No MSU fan would root for this outcomes, but the setup would still be pretty cool. That game is also on Peacock, though, which would dull the excitment significantly.
All three of these outcomes have some benefit.
