I really meant to get this up earlier in the day, but I was up a little late last night. As expected, last night's events have made a significant dent in Michigan State' Big Ten odds. Here is the updated table:
This roughly 60-30 split between Purdue and MSU is in line with what my computer forecasted earler in the week in the scenario where Purdue won and MSU lost. Purdue did beat the spread/metric expectations, while MSU essentially lost by exactly the expected margin.
Michigan State's expected win total is down to 14.2. This is now over a full game back of Purdue (15.31) and just a few tenths of a win ahead of Michigan (13.97). Both Wisconsin (13.37) and Maryland (13.13) are now also within shouting distance. Notably, Michigan State's odds at a top four seed and double bye in the Big Ten Tournament is down to 71%. As always, the odds and data tracker is updated with all of the relevant charts, facts, and figures.
I will have more to say later in the week, but for now I will just say this: welcome to the Tom Izzo early February Bermuda Triangle. For whatever reason, this is the time of year when MSU teams often hit a slump. This too shall pass.
There is certainly a scenario where the struggles on the west coast benefit the program later. First, now Izzo has a chance to tie and then break the Big Ten record at Breslin. If Izzo breaks the record with a win over Knight's former Indiana Hoosiers, it will be all the better.
But the key here is that MSU needs to beat Oregon and Indiana. Period. If MSU is truly a contender (and I still think that they are) these are games that they must win and get to 11-2. That's job No. 1.
Then, the Spartans have a brutal stretch where they play at Illinois, vs. Purdue, at Michigan, and at Maryland. At a minimum, MSU needs to split those games to get to 13-4, and a win over Purdue is virtually a must. That's job No. 2.
If this comes to pass, the final three games are all a bit easier. MSU faces Wisconsin, at Iowa, and versus Michigan. If MSU gets those three and finished at 16-4 (job No. 3), they will very likely win at least a share of the Big Ten. Purdue and Michigan are very unlikely to run the table outside of .
The Spartans still mow their own grass. If they were 11-0 and feeling "fat and sassy," they could honestly coast a bit a likely still hang a banner. Now, they need to earn it. They need to continue to get better and build to March. This team still has a lot of wins left in them. This is perhaps the wake up call that they didn't know that they needed.
This roughly 60-30 split between Purdue and MSU is in line with what my computer forecasted earler in the week in the scenario where Purdue won and MSU lost. Purdue did beat the spread/metric expectations, while MSU essentially lost by exactly the expected margin.
Michigan State's expected win total is down to 14.2. This is now over a full game back of Purdue (15.31) and just a few tenths of a win ahead of Michigan (13.97). Both Wisconsin (13.37) and Maryland (13.13) are now also within shouting distance. Notably, Michigan State's odds at a top four seed and double bye in the Big Ten Tournament is down to 71%. As always, the odds and data tracker is updated with all of the relevant charts, facts, and figures.
I will have more to say later in the week, but for now I will just say this: welcome to the Tom Izzo early February Bermuda Triangle. For whatever reason, this is the time of year when MSU teams often hit a slump. This too shall pass.
There is certainly a scenario where the struggles on the west coast benefit the program later. First, now Izzo has a chance to tie and then break the Big Ten record at Breslin. If Izzo breaks the record with a win over Knight's former Indiana Hoosiers, it will be all the better.
But the key here is that MSU needs to beat Oregon and Indiana. Period. If MSU is truly a contender (and I still think that they are) these are games that they must win and get to 11-2. That's job No. 1.
Then, the Spartans have a brutal stretch where they play at Illinois, vs. Purdue, at Michigan, and at Maryland. At a minimum, MSU needs to split those games to get to 13-4, and a win over Purdue is virtually a must. That's job No. 2.
If this comes to pass, the final three games are all a bit easier. MSU faces Wisconsin, at Iowa, and versus Michigan. If MSU gets those three and finished at 16-4 (job No. 3), they will very likely win at least a share of the Big Ten. Purdue and Michigan are very unlikely to run the table outside of .
The Spartans still mow their own grass. If they were 11-0 and feeling "fat and sassy," they could honestly coast a bit a likely still hang a banner. Now, they need to earn it. They need to continue to get better and build to March. This team still has a lot of wins left in them. This is perhaps the wake up call that they didn't know that they needed.
