There were two games last night in Big Ten play and both had outcomes that were notable for the Big Ten race and for MSU.
First, Illinois went out to Nebraska and once again laid an egg. The Fighting Illini lost in overtime and dropped to just 6-5 in conference play. While they are not mathematically eliminated from the Big Ten Title chase, their odds are down to just 1%.
One thing to keep an eye on is that the Spartans' two most likely first opponents in the Big Ten Tournament are Ohio State and Illinois. Michigan State still has the best odds to claim the No. 1 seed (48%) and both those teams are hovering in the No. 7 to No. 9 seed range (along with Oregon). I am not sure that I want to see the Buckeyes or the Illini on Friday, but there is still a lot of basketball left to be played.
Similarly, UCLA hammered the Oregon Ducks in L.A. which dropped Oregon to 5-5. I have been saying that the Ducks were overrated for a while now and their record finally reflects that. My computer gives Oregon a 1-in-800 shot to win the Big Ten. But the bigger impact is that UCLA is now surging again and Tuesday's game for MSU now looks a bit harder. Right now the math is telling me that UCLA is likely to be a narrow favorite over MSU by about one point.
The updated Big Ten odds table is shown here:
Note that I have also updated my odds and stats tracker as of Friday morning.
For the first time, Michigan State's odds to claim at least a share of the Big Ten title are now over 60%. If MSU beats USC on Saturday, those odds go up to around 65%, depending on whether MSU covers or ekes out a win. But I wanted to understand the full picture of outcomes for MSU's trip out west. So I also conducting a few "what if" experiments to see what happens if MSU comes back from the trip with a record of 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2. Similarly, I calculated Purdue's odds, assuning the Boilermakers rough up the Hoosiers tonight. Those odds are shown here:
Pretty much no matter what, this trip will have a big impact. If Michigan State goes 2-0 to get to the Big Ten record of 11-0, the Spartans odds will rise to 75% and Purdue's odds will dip to below 40%. If MSU gets the split, the race is pretty much status quo, but Purdue is likely to gain some ground. If for some reason the Southern Califorinia sun produces a 0-2 slump, Purdue and Michigan State would be tied in the standings and it would be the Boliermakers with the clear edge in odds.
No matter what happens, these are two big road games that will have major conference title implications.
First, Illinois went out to Nebraska and once again laid an egg. The Fighting Illini lost in overtime and dropped to just 6-5 in conference play. While they are not mathematically eliminated from the Big Ten Title chase, their odds are down to just 1%.
One thing to keep an eye on is that the Spartans' two most likely first opponents in the Big Ten Tournament are Ohio State and Illinois. Michigan State still has the best odds to claim the No. 1 seed (48%) and both those teams are hovering in the No. 7 to No. 9 seed range (along with Oregon). I am not sure that I want to see the Buckeyes or the Illini on Friday, but there is still a lot of basketball left to be played.
Similarly, UCLA hammered the Oregon Ducks in L.A. which dropped Oregon to 5-5. I have been saying that the Ducks were overrated for a while now and their record finally reflects that. My computer gives Oregon a 1-in-800 shot to win the Big Ten. But the bigger impact is that UCLA is now surging again and Tuesday's game for MSU now looks a bit harder. Right now the math is telling me that UCLA is likely to be a narrow favorite over MSU by about one point.
The updated Big Ten odds table is shown here:
Note that I have also updated my odds and stats tracker as of Friday morning.
For the first time, Michigan State's odds to claim at least a share of the Big Ten title are now over 60%. If MSU beats USC on Saturday, those odds go up to around 65%, depending on whether MSU covers or ekes out a win. But I wanted to understand the full picture of outcomes for MSU's trip out west. So I also conducting a few "what if" experiments to see what happens if MSU comes back from the trip with a record of 2-0, 1-1, or 0-2. Similarly, I calculated Purdue's odds, assuning the Boilermakers rough up the Hoosiers tonight. Those odds are shown here:
Pretty much no matter what, this trip will have a big impact. If Michigan State goes 2-0 to get to the Big Ten record of 11-0, the Spartans odds will rise to 75% and Purdue's odds will dip to below 40%. If MSU gets the split, the race is pretty much status quo, but Purdue is likely to gain some ground. If for some reason the Southern Califorinia sun produces a 0-2 slump, Purdue and Michigan State would be tied in the standings and it would be the Boliermakers with the clear edge in odds.
No matter what happens, these are two big road games that will have major conference title implications.
