Happy last day of the regular Big Ten season, Spartan fans! It sure feels good to have another win and some positive momentum headed into the Big Ten Tournament. Here is the updated seeding odds matrix, as of Sunday morning. In this case, I can now use the actual Vegas lines to calculate the probabilities of each outcome:
Perhaps the most notable change here is that Penn State is actually a slight favorite over Maryland today. This means that if all of the favored teams win, Michigan State gets the No. 4 seed and a double bye. Also of note is that Ohio State projects as MSU's most likely first opponent, and Michigan is now MSU's most likely quarterfinals (Friday) opponent, if both teams make it that far.
In other words, there is a pretty good chance that MSU and Michigan will face off in the No. 4 / No. 5 game and MIchigan very well might need that win to make the Tournament. I don't know if that is a good thing or not... but it is what it is.
Here is a more visual look at MSU's seed odds. Here, I have also added the odds of MSU's seed if MSU were to have played and beaten Minnesota
MSU currently has a 39% chance at the double bye, but they would have an 83% chance with the theoretical Minnesota win. That tells me that there is a 45% chance that MSU fans are pretty angry come this evening.
Finally, here is a updated full table of scenarios for the top nine seeds.
Note that the projected easiest path to the Big Ten title is the scenario where MSU is the No. 3 seed, Rutgers is the No. 6 seed, and Michigan beats Indiana to claim the No. 2 seed. The Spartans would only need to beat Rutgers and Michigan on a neutral court to make the finals.
Finally, remember the following:
Perhaps the most notable change here is that Penn State is actually a slight favorite over Maryland today. This means that if all of the favored teams win, Michigan State gets the No. 4 seed and a double bye. Also of note is that Ohio State projects as MSU's most likely first opponent, and Michigan is now MSU's most likely quarterfinals (Friday) opponent, if both teams make it that far.
In other words, there is a pretty good chance that MSU and Michigan will face off in the No. 4 / No. 5 game and MIchigan very well might need that win to make the Tournament. I don't know if that is a good thing or not... but it is what it is.
Here is a more visual look at MSU's seed odds. Here, I have also added the odds of MSU's seed if MSU were to have played and beaten Minnesota
MSU currently has a 39% chance at the double bye, but they would have an 83% chance with the theoretical Minnesota win. That tells me that there is a 45% chance that MSU fans are pretty angry come this evening.
Finally, here is a updated full table of scenarios for the top nine seeds.
Note that the projected easiest path to the Big Ten title is the scenario where MSU is the No. 3 seed, Rutgers is the No. 6 seed, and Michigan beats Indiana to claim the No. 2 seed. The Spartans would only need to beat Rutgers and Michigan on a neutral court to make the finals.
Finally, remember the following:
