Last night the CF playoff committee released their first official poll and therefore bracket of the year. As someone that loves tournament and brackets, I can honestly say... that I could care less about the result.
I understand why they do it this way for football (and it rhymes with "honey") but it is still stupid. The NCAA Basketball Tournament is WAY better. They just issue one bracket, the final one, and that's it. That is the way that it should be done. Publishing these rankings is a cute novelty, but the season is only ~75% complete. The current rankings are largely irrelevant. While I can get some insight into the balance that the committee will make between predictive metrics and results-based metrics, any bracket released in the month of November is essentially for entertainment purposes only.
That said, here is what the bracket would look like based on last night's initial rankings:
This bracket includes:
Four Big Teams
Four SEC Teams
Plus Notre Dame, Boise State (G5), BYU, and Miami.
I have been pretty vocal historically about my disdain for conference and regular season rematches in the the playoffs. I even had a chance to challenge Rich Clark, the executive director of the College Football Playoff, on during a media webinar on the playoff procedure. I will absolutely die on the hill that minimizing rematched in tournaments should be a very high priority in setting up the bracket. This bracket is exhibit No. 1 as to why.
Note that three of the four Big Ten teama are located on the same side of the bracket and three of the four SEC teams are on the same side of the bracket. Also, Texas playing Alabama in the first round is not ideal (even if they did not face each other in the regular season.) There is also a very obvious fix to this problem: switch No. 5 Ohio State and No. 6 Texas. This has the added benefit of balancing the bracket by putting the teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the CFP poll (Oregon and Ohio State) on opposite sides of the bracket.
Based on the current CFP seeding rules, this kind of swap is not supposed to happen. But it is 100,000% what the cmmittee SHOULD do in practise.
But this bracket doesn't matter. Instead, wanted to comment on what might happen going forward. Consider the following end-of-season scenario, which is what my computer tells me is the single most likely scenario:
-Miami (13-0) runs the table and beats SMU (11-2) in the ACC Title game
-Iowa State (12-1) uosets BYU (12-1) in the Big 12 Title Game
-Ohio State (12-1) upsets Oregon (12-1) in the Big Ten Title Game
-The SEC ends with Texas at 7-1 and a SIX way tie for second place between Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss. In this scenarion, Alabama (11-2) wins the tiebreaker and upsets Texas (11-2) in the SEC Title game
With Miami as the only undefeated team, I could justify making them the No. 1 team (despite Tuesday's rankings). That would also solve some obviously bracketing issues Overall, I would set up the bracket as follows:
No. 1 Miami (13-0)
---No. 8 Georgia (10-2)
---No. 9 Indiana (11-1)
No. 4 Iowa State (12-1)
---No. 5 Oregon (12-1)
---No. 12 Boise State (12-1)
No. 3 Alabama (11-2)
---No. 6 Penn State (11-1)
---No. 11 BYU (12-1)
No. 2 Ohio State (12-1)
---No. 7 Texas (11-2)
---No 10 Notre Dame (11-1)
One could make the argument for Tennessee (10-2) over BYU (12-1), but I project BYU with a slightly better strength of resume at the end of the year.
That is my current CFP projections for this week.
I understand why they do it this way for football (and it rhymes with "honey") but it is still stupid. The NCAA Basketball Tournament is WAY better. They just issue one bracket, the final one, and that's it. That is the way that it should be done. Publishing these rankings is a cute novelty, but the season is only ~75% complete. The current rankings are largely irrelevant. While I can get some insight into the balance that the committee will make between predictive metrics and results-based metrics, any bracket released in the month of November is essentially for entertainment purposes only.
That said, here is what the bracket would look like based on last night's initial rankings:
This bracket includes:
Four Big Teams
Four SEC Teams
Plus Notre Dame, Boise State (G5), BYU, and Miami.
I have been pretty vocal historically about my disdain for conference and regular season rematches in the the playoffs. I even had a chance to challenge Rich Clark, the executive director of the College Football Playoff, on during a media webinar on the playoff procedure. I will absolutely die on the hill that minimizing rematched in tournaments should be a very high priority in setting up the bracket. This bracket is exhibit No. 1 as to why.
Note that three of the four Big Ten teama are located on the same side of the bracket and three of the four SEC teams are on the same side of the bracket. Also, Texas playing Alabama in the first round is not ideal (even if they did not face each other in the regular season.) There is also a very obvious fix to this problem: switch No. 5 Ohio State and No. 6 Texas. This has the added benefit of balancing the bracket by putting the teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the CFP poll (Oregon and Ohio State) on opposite sides of the bracket.
Based on the current CFP seeding rules, this kind of swap is not supposed to happen. But it is 100,000% what the cmmittee SHOULD do in practise.
But this bracket doesn't matter. Instead, wanted to comment on what might happen going forward. Consider the following end-of-season scenario, which is what my computer tells me is the single most likely scenario:
-Miami (13-0) runs the table and beats SMU (11-2) in the ACC Title game
-Iowa State (12-1) uosets BYU (12-1) in the Big 12 Title Game
-Ohio State (12-1) upsets Oregon (12-1) in the Big Ten Title Game
-The SEC ends with Texas at 7-1 and a SIX way tie for second place between Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss. In this scenarion, Alabama (11-2) wins the tiebreaker and upsets Texas (11-2) in the SEC Title game
With Miami as the only undefeated team, I could justify making them the No. 1 team (despite Tuesday's rankings). That would also solve some obviously bracketing issues Overall, I would set up the bracket as follows:
No. 1 Miami (13-0)
---No. 8 Georgia (10-2)
---No. 9 Indiana (11-1)
No. 4 Iowa State (12-1)
---No. 5 Oregon (12-1)
---No. 12 Boise State (12-1)
No. 3 Alabama (11-2)
---No. 6 Penn State (11-1)
---No. 11 BYU (12-1)
No. 2 Ohio State (12-1)
---No. 7 Texas (11-2)
---No 10 Notre Dame (11-1)
One could make the argument for Tennessee (10-2) over BYU (12-1), but I project BYU with a slightly better strength of resume at the end of the year.
That is my current CFP projections for this week.
