I decided to go with a theme of the kid's game Uno for this week's recap, as there were an awful lot of teams this week that suddenly seem to be headed in the opposite direction as last week. Then there are teams like Michigan. I mean, those guys have been dominant for three years. Suddenly in 2024, they look as mediocre or worse than they did prior to 2021 and for the 20, 40?, 70 years before that. I wonder what's different or missing from their preparation this year?
But I digress. The article can be found here:
michiganstate.rivals.com
There is one annoying thing that I did not mention from a betting and data point of view. One challenge that comes up this time of year is how to handle the results of games against FCS opponents. For years, I simply didn't count the results at all. If a team beat an FCS team by 70 or lost to them, it did not impact the power ranking at all.
A few years back, I developed a method to translate SP+ rankings into my power ranking which allowed me to correctly account for games against FCS teams. Over the last few years, I have experimented with using it. Week 2 is always hard because there are so few data points. I decided NOT to include the FCS data is my "official" betting predictions. As the article says, my computer had a rough weekend.
But, when I use the data which incorporates the FCS data, it did much, much better. It went 4-1 for upset picks, 4-3 for recommended picks ATS, and 25-24 total.
That's just annoying.
As always, enjoy!
But I digress. The article can be found here:
Spartans Illustrated: Michigan State Spartans Football & Basketball Recruiting - Dr. Green and White Against All Odds, Week Two: Reverse Card
While it still might be too early to draw too many conclusions, MSU may have turned things around already.
There is one annoying thing that I did not mention from a betting and data point of view. One challenge that comes up this time of year is how to handle the results of games against FCS opponents. For years, I simply didn't count the results at all. If a team beat an FCS team by 70 or lost to them, it did not impact the power ranking at all.
A few years back, I developed a method to translate SP+ rankings into my power ranking which allowed me to correctly account for games against FCS teams. Over the last few years, I have experimented with using it. Week 2 is always hard because there are so few data points. I decided NOT to include the FCS data is my "official" betting predictions. As the article says, my computer had a rough weekend.
But, when I use the data which incorporates the FCS data, it did much, much better. It went 4-1 for upset picks, 4-3 for recommended picks ATS, and 25-24 total.
That's just annoying.
As always, enjoy!
