As everyone knows, a 16-seed has never beaten a 1-seed. They are 132-0 all time since 1979. Based on my analysis of historical point spreads, we are getting to the point where this is a bit odd.
As an example, 1-seeds are usually about a 23-25 point favorite or so. If we take 24 as the spread, my historical data regression suggests that a 24-point favorite will win 99.2% of the time. Well, it just so happens that 0.8% of 132 is 1 game. So, in other words, we are due for the upset to beat all other upsets.
That said, Kansas is only a 15.5-point favorite over Penn, which is about the tightest spread that I can remember seeing for a 1-seed in the 1st round. Now, let's not get too crazy, as using my same math the Jayhawks still have a 94% chance of winning, but it is notable.
I would say "you heard it here first," but I have seen no fewer than 3 people on twitter talk about the possibility. One was Seth Davis, and another was Ken Pomroy, I believe. So, it is out there. I sure am not brave enough to pick this upset, but man is it tempting....
As an example, 1-seeds are usually about a 23-25 point favorite or so. If we take 24 as the spread, my historical data regression suggests that a 24-point favorite will win 99.2% of the time. Well, it just so happens that 0.8% of 132 is 1 game. So, in other words, we are due for the upset to beat all other upsets.
That said, Kansas is only a 15.5-point favorite over Penn, which is about the tightest spread that I can remember seeing for a 1-seed in the 1st round. Now, let's not get too crazy, as using my same math the Jayhawks still have a 94% chance of winning, but it is notable.
I would say "you heard it here first," but I have seen no fewer than 3 people on twitter talk about the possibility. One was Seth Davis, and another was Ken Pomroy, I believe. So, it is out there. I sure am not brave enough to pick this upset, but man is it tempting....
Last edited:
