I've been thinking about the coming matchup a lot, as I'm sure most of you have. My caesar's app shows the Wolverines as 22.5 point favorites. That doesn't bother me too much, we were heavy underdogs last year, even bigger the year before, and we know how those turned out.
But when you start to think critically about how an upset could be sprung, there are a few good tail wind aspects. I could buy the idea that MSU gets healthy over the bye, and stunting UM's run game. UM has feasted on a weak schedule to date, and on the other side, we were missing a star d-tackle, safety, and solid contributor defensive ends, I could see us keeping a lid on the offense, and holding them under say 31.
***Edit, I forgot to highlight the move of Windmon to LB. I think this is another big cause for optimism in run defense.
On offense, Thorne is coming off a great game, and I think we have the skill talent to match up with anyone. Reed, Coleman, Mosely and the TEs can are very good, and Thorne is a very capable QB.
However, we know the team that runs the ball successfully has the best chance to win this game. I don't see a scenario where we outrush Michigan. In fact, I am struggling to see how we are even close in that department. On the year, we average 104 net yards rushing. If that isn't bad enough, it is being inflated by 'cotton candy' yards run up against Western and Akron, where MSU was both near 200 yards.
In our best rushing effort in recent weeks was Wisconsin, where we netted just 99.
Maybe we pull out the Rocky Lomardi / Ricky White offense, and try and take a bunch of deep shots and double moves. But if you're Michigan, against our running game, are you really going to worry about stopping the run with extra resources? Or are you protecting your CBs with deep safety help? I would play conservatively with the secondary, but I'm not a coach.
If we can't run the ball consistently, I think the path to victory becomes a lot tougher. Maybe Reed can take a punt back, or you get lucky with a defensive score. But that feels like grasping at straws to me.
To win this game, CMT will have to get the best possible effort out of his team that he can. I'm kind of counting on that, he has already shown the ability to cycle up for UM twice. But in my opinion, the area we need it most is running the ball.
Happy rivalry week, everyone!
But when you start to think critically about how an upset could be sprung, there are a few good tail wind aspects. I could buy the idea that MSU gets healthy over the bye, and stunting UM's run game. UM has feasted on a weak schedule to date, and on the other side, we were missing a star d-tackle, safety, and solid contributor defensive ends, I could see us keeping a lid on the offense, and holding them under say 31.
***Edit, I forgot to highlight the move of Windmon to LB. I think this is another big cause for optimism in run defense.
On offense, Thorne is coming off a great game, and I think we have the skill talent to match up with anyone. Reed, Coleman, Mosely and the TEs can are very good, and Thorne is a very capable QB.
However, we know the team that runs the ball successfully has the best chance to win this game. I don't see a scenario where we outrush Michigan. In fact, I am struggling to see how we are even close in that department. On the year, we average 104 net yards rushing. If that isn't bad enough, it is being inflated by 'cotton candy' yards run up against Western and Akron, where MSU was both near 200 yards.
In our best rushing effort in recent weeks was Wisconsin, where we netted just 99.
Maybe we pull out the Rocky Lomardi / Ricky White offense, and try and take a bunch of deep shots and double moves. But if you're Michigan, against our running game, are you really going to worry about stopping the run with extra resources? Or are you protecting your CBs with deep safety help? I would play conservatively with the secondary, but I'm not a coach.
If we can't run the ball consistently, I think the path to victory becomes a lot tougher. Maybe Reed can take a punt back, or you get lucky with a defensive score. But that feels like grasping at straws to me.
To win this game, CMT will have to get the best possible effort out of his team that he can. I'm kind of counting on that, he has already shown the ability to cycle up for UM twice. But in my opinion, the area we need it most is running the ball.
Happy rivalry week, everyone!
