As we enjoy the appetizer that is the First Four, here is a little more historical data that may help you fill out your bracket. First, how about the Final Four teams themselves? How aggressive can you / should you be in picking lower seeds? If we go back to 1979, the total distribution looks like this:
where, as we can see, 40% of all Final Four participants are 1-seeds, 20% are 2-seeds, 20% are 3-seeds and 4-seeds, and the remaining 20% is something lower than that. So, odds are only 1 or 2 of the current 1-seeds will wind up in San Antonio. Another way to look at this data is the distribution of the top seed in the Final Four, the second highest seed, the 3rd highest, and the lowest. That data is shown here:
The gives you a little better idea of what to expect. In almost any given year, you can expect at least one 1-seed. The second and third highest seeds are usually 1-seeds or 2-seeds. But, in the vast majority of years (over 90%) there is a 3-seed or lower that crashes the party. One final way to look at this data is that the average top Final Four seed in a given year has a seed of 1.1, the second highest average seed is 1.7, third is 2.9, and the average lowest seed is 5.5.
Another interesting piece of data that I pulled tonight deals with at what point it is likely that each seed will get eliminated. In other words, what percentage of (say) 1-seeds actually make the (say) regional final? That data is shown in the following 2 graphs:
Based on the top graph above, the answer to my question is about 70%, as a little over 30% of the 1-seed get eliminated in the Sweet 16 or before. Also notable is that about a third of all 2-seeds don't make the Sweet 16, and about 45% of 3-seeds get bounced in the first weekend.
There is some other interesting information buried in the data as well, such as the fact that 5-seeds almost never get past the Sweet 16. Only 9 5-seeds have ever made a Regional Final and two of those teams were MSU teams that made the Final Four. Ironically, once a 5-seed makes the Regional Final, 7 of the 9 have made the Final Four, but none have ever won the Title.
Finally, I will leave the board with this tidbit. For all those of us that either are anticipating or dreading the possibility of an MSU-Duke rematch in the Sweet 16, you might be surprised to learn that the 2-3 match-up has only happened in 51 of the possible 156 cases since 1979, which suggests there is only about a 1 in 3 chance that it will happen this year, either because MSU gets upset or Duke does. If the teams do meet, history suggests that the 2-seed wins 65% of the time (33/51).
Food for thought.
where, as we can see, 40% of all Final Four participants are 1-seeds, 20% are 2-seeds, 20% are 3-seeds and 4-seeds, and the remaining 20% is something lower than that. So, odds are only 1 or 2 of the current 1-seeds will wind up in San Antonio. Another way to look at this data is the distribution of the top seed in the Final Four, the second highest seed, the 3rd highest, and the lowest. That data is shown here:
The gives you a little better idea of what to expect. In almost any given year, you can expect at least one 1-seed. The second and third highest seeds are usually 1-seeds or 2-seeds. But, in the vast majority of years (over 90%) there is a 3-seed or lower that crashes the party. One final way to look at this data is that the average top Final Four seed in a given year has a seed of 1.1, the second highest average seed is 1.7, third is 2.9, and the average lowest seed is 5.5.
Another interesting piece of data that I pulled tonight deals with at what point it is likely that each seed will get eliminated. In other words, what percentage of (say) 1-seeds actually make the (say) regional final? That data is shown in the following 2 graphs:
Based on the top graph above, the answer to my question is about 70%, as a little over 30% of the 1-seed get eliminated in the Sweet 16 or before. Also notable is that about a third of all 2-seeds don't make the Sweet 16, and about 45% of 3-seeds get bounced in the first weekend.
There is some other interesting information buried in the data as well, such as the fact that 5-seeds almost never get past the Sweet 16. Only 9 5-seeds have ever made a Regional Final and two of those teams were MSU teams that made the Final Four. Ironically, once a 5-seed makes the Regional Final, 7 of the 9 have made the Final Four, but none have ever won the Title.
Finally, I will leave the board with this tidbit. For all those of us that either are anticipating or dreading the possibility of an MSU-Duke rematch in the Sweet 16, you might be surprised to learn that the 2-3 match-up has only happened in 51 of the possible 156 cases since 1979, which suggests there is only about a 1 in 3 chance that it will happen this year, either because MSU gets upset or Duke does. If the teams do meet, history suggests that the 2-seed wins 65% of the time (33/51).
Food for thought.
