Everyone needs to evaluate next steps in the context if any school being considered brings $100M+ of annual media value to the BIG 10. If the answer is no, all that does is dilute the payout current members will get.
We can all sit and fit puzzle pieces to move to 24 by adding Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Notre Dame, Virginia, Duke, North Carolina. All those schools fit the AAU academic requirement. However, only 1 of those schools right now will hit the $100M+ of annual media valuation and that is ND. Oregon has Nike, but does not have a strong media market. UW has Seattle, but not a strong national profile. Stanford and Cal have strong academic and Olympic sport reps, but not going to move football. Virginia and Duke have solid basketball, but bring little to football. UNC is has basketball and mediocre football with a national profile plus a strong media market.
At the end of the day ND moves the needle, Oregon and Washington probably could be offered to take less revenue % to join the BIG 10 as they would most likely be a net diluter and UNC has to wait 15 years to get out of the ACC.
Bottom line is it makes no financial sense to go to 24 teams unless there is joint agreement with the SEC that the two conferences will create a 2 conference national championship and sell media rights accordingly.
Kevin Warren and Fox should spend the next month recasting the media rights lines with USC and UCLA included and float what the net add would be if Washington and Oregon were included. Then Warren needs to go to ND and say this is final good faith from the BIG 10 to include ND and bring Stanford at the same time. Ideally, you get ND, Stanford, Washington and Oregon to get to your 20 teams, but you need to determine will that get you $400M+ of added annual media value.
We can all sit and fit puzzle pieces to move to 24 by adding Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Notre Dame, Virginia, Duke, North Carolina. All those schools fit the AAU academic requirement. However, only 1 of those schools right now will hit the $100M+ of annual media valuation and that is ND. Oregon has Nike, but does not have a strong media market. UW has Seattle, but not a strong national profile. Stanford and Cal have strong academic and Olympic sport reps, but not going to move football. Virginia and Duke have solid basketball, but bring little to football. UNC is has basketball and mediocre football with a national profile plus a strong media market.
At the end of the day ND moves the needle, Oregon and Washington probably could be offered to take less revenue % to join the BIG 10 as they would most likely be a net diluter and UNC has to wait 15 years to get out of the ACC.
Bottom line is it makes no financial sense to go to 24 teams unless there is joint agreement with the SEC that the two conferences will create a 2 conference national championship and sell media rights accordingly.
Kevin Warren and Fox should spend the next month recasting the media rights lines with USC and UCLA included and float what the net add would be if Washington and Oregon were included. Then Warren needs to go to ND and say this is final good faith from the BIG 10 to include ND and bring Stanford at the same time. Ideally, you get ND, Stanford, Washington and Oregon to get to your 20 teams, but you need to determine will that get you $400M+ of added annual media value.
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