East Lansing, Mich. - Cutting to the chase with 14 things that I think I think about Western Michigan, following by 7 things I'll be looking for from Michigan State:
1. I say this every year, but I need to make the point that I haven’t seen either of these teams play.
Obviously.
None of us have. We saw most of the players on these teams play eight or nine months ago. That’s what we have to go on. Yet we sit around on talk shows and try to offer intelligent opinions on who we think is going to win the Utah vs Florida game.
It’s kind of insane.
But our love for football is insane too. So we spend weeks and even months pondering the first college football game of the season, and wondering how it’s going to go down.
For Pitt vs West Virginia, that’s a noble, understandable undertaking. Big game. Two Power Five teams.
For Michigan State vs Northwestern last year, understandable undertaking. Big game.
For Michigan State vs Western Michigan, it’s a little more tricky.
Western Michigan is not SUPPOSED to be able to beat a Big Ten team. Yet we’ve seen Michigan State lose to MAC teams three times in modern history. And Western Michigan upset Pitt at Pitt last year.
So it IS possible.
However, Western Michigan lost a very good quarterback to NFL aspirations (went undrafted and received a tryout with the Seattle Seahawks), and an outstanding WR in Skyy Moore, who was drafted in the second round by the Kansas City Chiefs.
2. What do we know about WMU? The Broncos were 8-5 last year, 5-5 in the MAC.
They had a very good, balanced offense that could cat and mouse you to shreds.
They racked up 517 yards of offense, 357 through the air and an impressive 160 YARDS RUSHING against Pitt last year.
3. Two starters are back on the offensive line and two quality running backs, including former Spartan LaDarius Jefferson.
Jefferson (6-1, 238, Sr., Muskegon) has some power, a little bit of wiggle and some fall-forward tenacity. He led WMU in rushing in 2020 with just over 600 yards. And he ranked second on the team in rushin glast year with 836 yards and 10 TDs.
Sean Tyler (5-8, 185, Jr.) rushed for, 1,140 yards last year and 9 TDs. He can bounce it outside, make people miss and has excellent short-area burst. You need to keep leverage on the ball when converging on him. Don’t take a false step. Don’t make a wrong-shoulder pursuit. Team leverage and gang tackle.
I’m not saying his ultra dangerous, but if you are undisciplined (like Miami last year) he can get to daylight, squirt free and move the chains.
4. Last year, against Pitt, they played Jeffers and Tyler TOGETHER a few times. That’s uncommon in this age of football.
On one occasion, they ran an RPO, faked a handoff to Jefferson while reading the overhang defender and threw the ball to Tyler.
So that’s a fake to one RB and a pass to the other, and it went for a red zone TD against Pitt.
5. That was with last year’s offensive coordinator.
WMU had a nice season on offense last year, but changed their offensive coordinator.
Last year, they had co-offensive coordinators. One left for Indiana State (most likely fired). The other was demoted to RBs coach and pass game coordinator.
That made room for Jeff Thorne, the father of Michigan State QB Payton Thorne.
Thorne was 65-10 in seven years as head coach at Division III North Central College in Naperville, Ill. He won a National Championship in 2019.
How much will the offense change with Thorne?
Michigan State has been scouting NCC’s offense over the last few years for clues.
Michigan State head coach Mel Tucker says they have not consulted Payton Thorne about his father’s offense. I’m not sure whether I believe that or not.
WMU head coach Tim Lester was a QB at Western Michigan. I suspect that much of what WMU did on offense last year was of Lester’s design and preference. But that’s just a guess.
We know enough about Kirk Ferentz at Iowa that regardless of who he has as “offensive coordinator,” there are a family of plays that the Hawkeyes have run for years and will continue to run as long as Ferentz is there.
I don’t know enough about Lester to ascertain whether the RPOs that WMU ran so effectively last year vs Pitt will remain the blood and guts of their offense.
Tucker says, due to unknowns, Michigan State is sure to encounter “unscouted looks.”
Tucker and Michigan State defensive players have talked this week about this being a “rules” game. Meaning that they will stick to base defensive rules and concepts more so than having more specific scheme-stopping answers and components that you would see later in the season when you have a better idea of what you are going to see from an opponent.
Is this a dangerous thing? It’s not ideal. But, if you win the game, it’s also a good way to get your base defensive stuff nailed down and executed. It’s good to build on, IF you win.
6. WMU’s RPO stuff was so good against Pitt last year. But that stuff has always been good against Pat Narduzzi defenses, at least between the 20-yard lines. WMU beat Pitt by finishing in the red zone.
The QB was so good at making reads and dishing the ball to WR Moore in the slot. He had 10 catches in the first three quarters.
However, two weeks earlier in the opener, Michigan held Moore to only two catches. I didn’t bother re-watching that game, partly because that QB and that WR are gone.
Now there’s a new QB and a new offensive coordinator. But WMU has Lester back. I’m thinking we are going to continue to see a heavy reliance on the RPO game.
“They’re QB driven,” an anonymous opposing Mid-American Conference assistant coach told Athlon’s in the national preview magazine. “They have a good, simple plan. They’re going to find a handful of playmakers and get them as many touches as they can.”
So who are those playmakers?
7. The QB is Jack Salopek (6-3, 186, R-Fr., Irwin, Pa).
“He has had a great camp,” Lester said.
He played in two games last year. He was 3-of-5 through the air for the season, and I watched all three completions in the Pitt game.
He looked composed and capable. It’s a short sample size but if you were to ask me who kind of looked like, I would say Tyler O’Connor.
The three completions:
* He connected with an outside receiver on a short hitch for four yards out of a two-by-two formation. One read. Pitch and catch. Made the pre-snap read, saw a free release for that WR and zipped it to him.
* On third-and-one, they ran an RPO. He faked a handoff, and sent a good rip to WR Moore for a gain of 7.
The ball was received 1 yard past the line of scrimmage. Moore had a free release in the slot area (same thing Baylor did against Narduzzi’s defense in 2014 17 or 18 times for short gains).
Not a difficult read. Free release. Take the snap, don’t look anywhere else, just zip it out to him.
But the mechanics looked efficient and solid. No wasted motion. No funny deliver. Ball trigger was out relatively quickly.
* On first-and-10, Salopek threw to WR Moore again for a gain of 9. Again, it was an RPO, faking the handoff, reading the defenders, seeing Moore in the slot on a free release, and fired to him on a slant.
Easy read. Good pitch and catch. Solid.
Then Salopek went out and was done for the day, and pretty much the year.
Salopek started the second half against Pitt. The other QB was seen scrambling around on the sidelines, going here and there. I never found out whether the starting QB was injured, or if WMU wanted to give this Pittsburgh native the opening drive of the second half in his hometown. I don’t know. But he played the opening series, got a couple of first downs and looked capable.
8. So Salopek has played against a Power Five opponent on the road. Pitt’s stadium was half full that day. The environment will be louder at Michigan State on Friday night.
However, this is not an in-state kid trying to prove himself against an in-state school that turned him down. That was his situation last year, for three pass attempts.
Now, it’s the usual case of a regional kid trying to prove he was under-recruited.
Facing a redshirt-freshman making his first start is certainly preferable for Michigan State to playing a senior, record-breaking signal caller like Dan LeFevour of Central Michigan who beat the Spartans in 2009.
* Salopek is a capable mid-major D-1 QB, out to prove himself. Payton Thorne was very nearly in the same place. Thorne committed to WMU in May of his junior year, but then decommitted after Michigan State offered the following December.
Kirk Cousins was probably headed to WMU (or maybe Colorado) if Michigan State hadn’t come through with an 11th-hour scholarship offer soon after Mark Dantonio was hired.
My point is that good QBs often land at WMU, like the one they had last year, like Tim Lester back in the late 1990s, and probably, like Salopek. It wouldn’t surprise me if he becomes a four-year starter and 10,000-plus yard career thrower.
So how good is he right now? I’ll stick with the O’Connor comparison for now.
What does he have to work with? Those two RBs are rock solid. Jefferson isn’t the most explosive guy, but he’s an experienced, tough, hard-working type of guy who has some fall-forward capabilities.
How well will Michigan State rally to the ball against Jefferson and prevent that fall-forward yardage, how well will Michigan State corral Tyler and smother his wiggle?
These are good tests for Michigan State. It’s not like facing Ohio State, but WMU is a good sparring partner in these respects.
9. As for receivers, WMU’s top returner is Corey Crooms. Crooms (5-11, 185, Jr., Country Club Hills, Ill.) had 44 catches for 768 yards last year.
He ranked second on the team in catches and receiving yards last year.
WMU graduated four of its top five receivers.
Crooms is THE ONLY WIDE RECEIVER ON THE ROSTER who caught a pass last year.
With Moore’s success, WMU was able to hit the portal and bring in a couple of Power Five refugees:
* AJ Abbott (6-2, 200, Sr., Northville, Mich.).
He had two catches in 2020, and 1 catch last year in three games.
* Jehlani Galloway (5-11, 187, Sr., Providence, R.I.)
He had two catches in 2020, none last year
“They have both done a good job and are getting more comfortable by the minute,” Lester said.
Anthony Sambucci (6-1, 190, Soph. Lemont, Ill.) has played on special teams and waited for his moment.
As for Crooms, he had four catches for 58 yards against Michigan.
He had eight catches for 161 yards against Pitt.
He had this 75-yard TD in a 52-24 victory over Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit last year.
In this play, they put him in the slot, found a favorable matchup. He got loose with a double move nod to the post and outside release. A shaky slot defender became off-balance and got burned.
So what does this play mean for Michigan State? Well, Tim Lester’s offenses, like a lot of offenses, search for matchup advantages from the slot.
Who is your slot defender? If you’re not good there, you have problems. If that guy can’t cover a quick double-move AND provide sturdy play against the run, you have problems.
Most teams have problems.
Last year, Michigan State had Darius Snow as its primary slot defender, although there are times when a safety gets forced into that duty.
Snow was solid last year. But he has moved primarily to inside linebacker, gained about 12 pounds.
Snow says he will play some nickel slot this year as well. He likes to think of himself as a versatile positionless type of second-level defender. But you’ll know when I know. I’m not sure what to expect from Michigan State in terms of nickel defenders.
Chester Kimbrough played nickel in the spring scrimmage. Michigan State likes to have a guy with CB skills in the slot/nickel area against finesse passing attacks. I’m expecting Kimbrough to be that guy as the starter in this game, but I could be wrong.
10. The WMU offensive line returns two starters. I watched those guys against Pitt this week.
Some are projecting Jacob Gideon (6-2, 295, Soph., Union, Ky.) as the starting center for WMU. He played left guard against Pitt. He looked a little clunky, but capable. There was one time he was beaten badly on an inside swim/swipe move. Learning moment. Young guy. I’m not closing the door on him, but he doesn’t seem to be a physical marvel.
Lester says the first-string OL has worked as a unit and stayed intact since the beginning of spring.
“We have three new starters who kind of look like veterans out there,” Lester said.
The three:
LG Trevor Campbell (6-3, 315, R-Sr., Naperville, Ill.)
RG Addison West (6-3, 302, R-Soph., Cary, Ill.)
RT Jack Sherwin (6-3, 298, R-Soph., Traverse City Central)
Shewin is a former yackle who played a lot of blocking tight end until he got his weight up to OT size, Lester said.
Overall, I’m not sure what to think of this offensive line. Lester makes it sound like he’s pleased with the progress.
WMU did some solid stuff with its offensive front last year, working with tight splits, good discipline. They had nice offensive balance.
What does it mean for Michigan State?
11. The Spartan defensive tackles SHOULD dominate against this inexperienced, smallish WMU interior. If the Michigan State d-tackle tag teams are as good as we think they are, they should uproot WMU’s inside zone plays, and their center-pulls and their powers.
The WMU pass game component can’t possibly be as good as last year, which should make it that much more difficult for the Broncos to establish their talented tailbacks.
12. As for defense, WMU ranked No. 4 in the MAC in yards allowed per play last year and seventh in scoring defense.
The Broncos have a capable DT in No. 55 Braden Fiske (6-5, 300, R-Jr., Michigan City, Ind.) He’s a Maverick Hansen type. Fiske had 7.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks last year.
At d-end, Andre Carter (No. 1, 6-5, 263, R-Jr., Detroit Cass Tech) doesn’t look out of place. He had five TFLs last season.
I don’t have much of anything on the other guys.
14. WMU’s has three starting LBs returning.
No. 20 is the guy in the middle, Corvin Moment (6-0, 245, R-Sr., Vero Beach, Fla.). He had three TFLs last year.
He has average change of direction, average burst. Decent size. Not a difference-maker. Kind of a Shane Jones type of guy, but with longer hair, a little thicker, maybe a little slower.
No. 3 is their other inside linebacker, Zaire Barnes (6-1, 227, Sr., Mundelin, Ill.) He had five TFLs last year and was second-team All-MAC.
He has quick feet, and can slalom through the wash. He’s what I call a sports car linebacker, kind of like Antjuan Simmons.
13. What does this mean for MSU’s offensive line?
The Spartan o-line is probably the biggest x-factor on the team. There are five guys in the starting lineup with starting experience.
But Jarrett Horst needs to stay grounded at left tackle. He’s key. He’s proven.
JD Duplain should be ready to take a step toward becoming a plus player at left guard.
At center, Nick Samac has kind of flat-lined in the last couple of years while sharing time with Matt Allen. Many might have assumed that he would have overtaken Allen last year, but he didn’t. He struggled in the Peach Bowl.
Now that Samac is THE man at center, he needs to get his slope of improvement on the uptick again. We’ll see how he does against Fiske and company in the first public sparring of the season.
Things look favorable for Matt Carrick at right guard. I’ve said many times that I thought he was playing the best football of his career last year when he was a back-up at right guard for Kevin Jarvis. Carrick was an emergency spot starter at right guard as a freshman and sophomore. But he was better last year - until he went down with a knee injury midway through the season.
Coaches and doctors brought him along steadily but slowly during the spring, summer and early part of training camp. But from the things we’ve seen, it appears he has been repping with the ones at right guard, and things sound favorable.
Michigan State brought in Brian Greene as a transfer from Washington State. He was honorable mention All-Pac 12 in four games at WSU in 2020. I never saw film of him in 2020, but I saw film of him last year and he was just kind of okay. He was NOT as good last year as Matt Carrick was.
Greene has the ability to play center, so that may have helped snap Samac to attention.
Greene is a solid reliever to have in the bullpen. But if Carrick starts in front of him, i wouldn’t be surprised.
If Greene starts, that means he beat out what I assume is a decent version of Carrick. Either way, the competition has a chance to yield a solid RG situation.
At right tackle, Spencer Brown was a pleasant surprise in his emergency start in the Peach Bowl, against a terrific Pitt defensive end rotation. But Brown was just kind of okay in the spring scrimmage.
I don’t think Brown has knocked anyone dead during preseason practice, but we are hearing good things about his leadership. He wants to deliver. He has the frame to do it.
Brown proved to be a gamer in the bowl game. That’s a good sign.
14. The big question on the Michigan State offensive line:
If Horst needs to rotate out, like he did last year, who is No. 2 at LT. Brandon Baldwin (6-7, 315, R-Soph.) has been getting a lot of reps in practice with the ones, dating back to last spring.
He’s a long-armed athlete with nice movement skills. Would he be ready to float at left tackle in a sink-or-swim emergency? That’s what we need to find out.
Ethan Boyd (6-7, 325, R-Fr., East Lansing) is right on schedule at right tackle. He has gotten some reps at the ones when Brown has needed to a stool.
Is Boyd better at RT than Baldwin is at LT? That’s debatable. That’s possible.
How about Spencer Brown? Michigan State rep'd him at left tackle in the spring, and other times, just to get him acclimated to the position in case of emergency.
So if Horst has to come out, who is the left tackle? Baldwin? Or do you go with Spencer Brown at LT and use Boyd at RT?
Only the guys in the war room know the answer to that, but it’s a scenario they have rehearsed and must be prepared for.
**
Overall, the WMU defensive front is decent by MAC standards, but if Michigan State has the type of offensive line that can help Michigan State make noise in the Big Ten East then the Spartans SHOULD win this matchup soundly.
Last year, Michigan rushed for 335 yards against WMU in a 47-14 victory. Michigan had 43 rush attempts and only 17 pass attempts.
Michigan’s ground attack was mature and steady last year. Michigan State isn’t expected to be at that level this year, but some TKO moments in the run game, without Kenneth Walker III, would be a welcomed sign for the Spartans.
SEVEN THINGS I’LL BE WATCHING RE: Michigan State
1. Who is the starting RB? How explosive is Michigan State at that position? Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard have ability to and through the hole, but I am not expecting Michigan State to have home run ability at the RB position comparable to last year. That’s no surprise. Does Michigan State have the personnel elsewhere to make up for it? And can the new corps of RBs be productive?
We haven’t heard much about Harold Joiner, but he continues to work. Can Michigan State find ways to get the ball to him in space, maybe like Connor Heyward? You’ll know when I know.
2. The TE picture is intriguing and positive for Michigan State. Daniel Barker, the Illinois transfer, is expected to give the Spartans their first two-way (blocking and receiving) tight end of the Tucker era. Offensive coordinator Jay Johnson wants pieces like that. How much will Barker figure into the chain-moving schematics. I’m eager to find out.
Tyler Hunt is a proven player, and improved at 15 pounds heavier.
Maliq Carr is the future at the position. He has been behind the wall a bit (NASCAR term) in August camp, but his time should come at some point. He might not start this season with the type of bang we might expect after his loud finish to 2021.
3. We know Jayden Reed is excellent. We know Tre Mosley can deliver when called upon. Keon Coleman and Germie Bernard are the future. Coleman is primed for a breakout performance. He has gotten a lot of ink during the spring and summer. He’s worthy of it. Now he needs to produce with the lights on. Solid chance he has a big breakout on Friday night. And Bernard isn’t far behind.
4. At place kicker, I’m kind of expecting true freshman Jack Stone to get the call. But Auburn transfer Ben Patton is more than capable, and proven at this level. Overall, I feel better about MSU’s place kicker situation than I did six months ago, mainly because there are two solid competitors vying for the job, plus a third in walk-on Steve Rusnak.
5. At defensive end, Michigan State is bit thin and not all that big. Does WMU have the tools to go at this potential weakness? Yes, WMu has the RBs, but do they have the blockers to really challege Michigan State at the edge? They’ll try.
Khris Bogle, the transfer from Florida, needs to show that he is a gamer. He hasn’t knocked anyone dead in practice. He has decent, long-arm, wiry-strength at the point of attack for a play or two. Can he do it play after play? That’s what he came here to do. Friday, we begin to find out.
Jeff Pietrowski has been a solid role player as a d-end. Is he ready to become a bell cow? I’ll believe it when I see it.
Brandon Wright is one of the more improved players in the program. I think he is ready to pay on running downs and provide the occasional plus play in pass rush.
Will Wright and Pietrowski (and even Slade and Barrow) look noticeably improved in their pass rush, thanks to the work of new pass rush coach Brandon Jordan? You’ll begin to find out when I do.
6. Will Michigan State reconfigure anything in the pass defense? Angelo Grose is a respectable battler. He’s a hitter, a good tackler. But Michigan State needs reliable ball judgement and pass defense back there at safety. Xavier Henderson is going to provide it. Grose struggled in that area last year in his first season (ever) as a safety. Michigan State has worked to bring him along. Is he ready? If not, what’s Plan B? Is there a second-strong safety ready to step up, or is there a new grouping with multiple cornerbacks on the field? And if so, can a lighter back seven support the run?
7. Darius Snow. He is improving rapidly, too. I’m hearing good things about him. He was solid last year as a nickel. I’m hearing now that he is about 12 or 13 pounds heavier, and a year smarter, he is smacking people at his new position as a linebacker. I think he’s going to be a starter. I think he will team up well with Aaron Brulé or Cal Haladay. The rotation will be good.
Jacoby Windmon came in to be a slash LB/DE. It looks like he is more of a d-end at this point, and that’s what Michigan State needs. Whether or not he is ready to make a big impact from day one is a bit of a question. But be patient. He will make a nice impact soon.
ADD IT ALL UP
In nine games against Power Five and Power Independent opponents in the Tim Lester era, WMU has given up 40-plus points in eight of those nine games. The lone exception was a 28-14 affair against a poor Michigan State offense in 2017.
WMU is 1-8 in those games, losing by 33 to Michigan, 19 to Syracuse, 34 to Michigan State, 23 to Syracuse, 46 to Michigan, 31 to BYU, 14 to Michigan State and 18 to USC.
The one victory was WMU’s most recent game against a Power Five opponent, last year’s 44-41 upset victory over eventual ACC Champion Pittsburgh.
So is WMU going to look more like the WMU of those other eight games, or more like they did in their most recent game against a Power Five opponent?
WMU has confidence, after an 8-5 season, a bowl victory, and the win at Pitt. And they should be confident and proud.
The question is whether WMU is ready to reload, or if WMU will take a step backward while developing its next dangerous QB?
I suspect the latter.
But we can’t know for sure, because we’ve never seen these guys play. Nor have we seen this version of Michigan State.
If Michigan State is ready to have another Top 15 type of season, then the Spartans should be able to march through this game three touchdowns better than this credible but presumably rebuilding MAC opponent.
If Michigan State is indeed ready to have another Top 15 season, then the Mel Tucker train is only going to gain steam. If that happens, he will continue to establish himself as the most dangerous man in college football, the likes of which Michigan State has never quite had at its helm.
This game against WMU won’t answer the question as to whether Michigan State is ready and able to have another Top 15 or Top 10 season. We might not know the answer to that question for three or four or five more weeks.
But if the answer is “no,” there’s a chance we will get that answer in week one. That’s not the answer you want, coming out of this game.
You want some good exercise, some good sparring, and a convincing victory and a 1-0 record. Real good chance that’s what you’ll get.
1. I say this every year, but I need to make the point that I haven’t seen either of these teams play.
Obviously.
None of us have. We saw most of the players on these teams play eight or nine months ago. That’s what we have to go on. Yet we sit around on talk shows and try to offer intelligent opinions on who we think is going to win the Utah vs Florida game.
It’s kind of insane.
But our love for football is insane too. So we spend weeks and even months pondering the first college football game of the season, and wondering how it’s going to go down.
For Pitt vs West Virginia, that’s a noble, understandable undertaking. Big game. Two Power Five teams.
For Michigan State vs Northwestern last year, understandable undertaking. Big game.
For Michigan State vs Western Michigan, it’s a little more tricky.
Western Michigan is not SUPPOSED to be able to beat a Big Ten team. Yet we’ve seen Michigan State lose to MAC teams three times in modern history. And Western Michigan upset Pitt at Pitt last year.
So it IS possible.
However, Western Michigan lost a very good quarterback to NFL aspirations (went undrafted and received a tryout with the Seattle Seahawks), and an outstanding WR in Skyy Moore, who was drafted in the second round by the Kansas City Chiefs.
2. What do we know about WMU? The Broncos were 8-5 last year, 5-5 in the MAC.
They had a very good, balanced offense that could cat and mouse you to shreds.
They racked up 517 yards of offense, 357 through the air and an impressive 160 YARDS RUSHING against Pitt last year.
3. Two starters are back on the offensive line and two quality running backs, including former Spartan LaDarius Jefferson.
Jefferson (6-1, 238, Sr., Muskegon) has some power, a little bit of wiggle and some fall-forward tenacity. He led WMU in rushing in 2020 with just over 600 yards. And he ranked second on the team in rushin glast year with 836 yards and 10 TDs.
Sean Tyler (5-8, 185, Jr.) rushed for, 1,140 yards last year and 9 TDs. He can bounce it outside, make people miss and has excellent short-area burst. You need to keep leverage on the ball when converging on him. Don’t take a false step. Don’t make a wrong-shoulder pursuit. Team leverage and gang tackle.
I’m not saying his ultra dangerous, but if you are undisciplined (like Miami last year) he can get to daylight, squirt free and move the chains.
4. Last year, against Pitt, they played Jeffers and Tyler TOGETHER a few times. That’s uncommon in this age of football.
On one occasion, they ran an RPO, faked a handoff to Jefferson while reading the overhang defender and threw the ball to Tyler.
So that’s a fake to one RB and a pass to the other, and it went for a red zone TD against Pitt.
5. That was with last year’s offensive coordinator.
WMU had a nice season on offense last year, but changed their offensive coordinator.
Last year, they had co-offensive coordinators. One left for Indiana State (most likely fired). The other was demoted to RBs coach and pass game coordinator.
That made room for Jeff Thorne, the father of Michigan State QB Payton Thorne.
Thorne was 65-10 in seven years as head coach at Division III North Central College in Naperville, Ill. He won a National Championship in 2019.
How much will the offense change with Thorne?
Michigan State has been scouting NCC’s offense over the last few years for clues.
Michigan State head coach Mel Tucker says they have not consulted Payton Thorne about his father’s offense. I’m not sure whether I believe that or not.
WMU head coach Tim Lester was a QB at Western Michigan. I suspect that much of what WMU did on offense last year was of Lester’s design and preference. But that’s just a guess.
We know enough about Kirk Ferentz at Iowa that regardless of who he has as “offensive coordinator,” there are a family of plays that the Hawkeyes have run for years and will continue to run as long as Ferentz is there.
I don’t know enough about Lester to ascertain whether the RPOs that WMU ran so effectively last year vs Pitt will remain the blood and guts of their offense.
Tucker says, due to unknowns, Michigan State is sure to encounter “unscouted looks.”
Tucker and Michigan State defensive players have talked this week about this being a “rules” game. Meaning that they will stick to base defensive rules and concepts more so than having more specific scheme-stopping answers and components that you would see later in the season when you have a better idea of what you are going to see from an opponent.
Is this a dangerous thing? It’s not ideal. But, if you win the game, it’s also a good way to get your base defensive stuff nailed down and executed. It’s good to build on, IF you win.
6. WMU’s RPO stuff was so good against Pitt last year. But that stuff has always been good against Pat Narduzzi defenses, at least between the 20-yard lines. WMU beat Pitt by finishing in the red zone.
The QB was so good at making reads and dishing the ball to WR Moore in the slot. He had 10 catches in the first three quarters.
However, two weeks earlier in the opener, Michigan held Moore to only two catches. I didn’t bother re-watching that game, partly because that QB and that WR are gone.
Now there’s a new QB and a new offensive coordinator. But WMU has Lester back. I’m thinking we are going to continue to see a heavy reliance on the RPO game.
“They’re QB driven,” an anonymous opposing Mid-American Conference assistant coach told Athlon’s in the national preview magazine. “They have a good, simple plan. They’re going to find a handful of playmakers and get them as many touches as they can.”
So who are those playmakers?
7. The QB is Jack Salopek (6-3, 186, R-Fr., Irwin, Pa).
“He has had a great camp,” Lester said.
He played in two games last year. He was 3-of-5 through the air for the season, and I watched all three completions in the Pitt game.
He looked composed and capable. It’s a short sample size but if you were to ask me who kind of looked like, I would say Tyler O’Connor.
The three completions:
* He connected with an outside receiver on a short hitch for four yards out of a two-by-two formation. One read. Pitch and catch. Made the pre-snap read, saw a free release for that WR and zipped it to him.
* On third-and-one, they ran an RPO. He faked a handoff, and sent a good rip to WR Moore for a gain of 7.
The ball was received 1 yard past the line of scrimmage. Moore had a free release in the slot area (same thing Baylor did against Narduzzi’s defense in 2014 17 or 18 times for short gains).
Not a difficult read. Free release. Take the snap, don’t look anywhere else, just zip it out to him.
But the mechanics looked efficient and solid. No wasted motion. No funny deliver. Ball trigger was out relatively quickly.
* On first-and-10, Salopek threw to WR Moore again for a gain of 9. Again, it was an RPO, faking the handoff, reading the defenders, seeing Moore in the slot on a free release, and fired to him on a slant.
Easy read. Good pitch and catch. Solid.
Then Salopek went out and was done for the day, and pretty much the year.
Salopek started the second half against Pitt. The other QB was seen scrambling around on the sidelines, going here and there. I never found out whether the starting QB was injured, or if WMU wanted to give this Pittsburgh native the opening drive of the second half in his hometown. I don’t know. But he played the opening series, got a couple of first downs and looked capable.
8. So Salopek has played against a Power Five opponent on the road. Pitt’s stadium was half full that day. The environment will be louder at Michigan State on Friday night.
However, this is not an in-state kid trying to prove himself against an in-state school that turned him down. That was his situation last year, for three pass attempts.
Now, it’s the usual case of a regional kid trying to prove he was under-recruited.
Facing a redshirt-freshman making his first start is certainly preferable for Michigan State to playing a senior, record-breaking signal caller like Dan LeFevour of Central Michigan who beat the Spartans in 2009.
* Salopek is a capable mid-major D-1 QB, out to prove himself. Payton Thorne was very nearly in the same place. Thorne committed to WMU in May of his junior year, but then decommitted after Michigan State offered the following December.
Kirk Cousins was probably headed to WMU (or maybe Colorado) if Michigan State hadn’t come through with an 11th-hour scholarship offer soon after Mark Dantonio was hired.
My point is that good QBs often land at WMU, like the one they had last year, like Tim Lester back in the late 1990s, and probably, like Salopek. It wouldn’t surprise me if he becomes a four-year starter and 10,000-plus yard career thrower.
So how good is he right now? I’ll stick with the O’Connor comparison for now.
What does he have to work with? Those two RBs are rock solid. Jefferson isn’t the most explosive guy, but he’s an experienced, tough, hard-working type of guy who has some fall-forward capabilities.
How well will Michigan State rally to the ball against Jefferson and prevent that fall-forward yardage, how well will Michigan State corral Tyler and smother his wiggle?
These are good tests for Michigan State. It’s not like facing Ohio State, but WMU is a good sparring partner in these respects.
9. As for receivers, WMU’s top returner is Corey Crooms. Crooms (5-11, 185, Jr., Country Club Hills, Ill.) had 44 catches for 768 yards last year.
He ranked second on the team in catches and receiving yards last year.
WMU graduated four of its top five receivers.
Crooms is THE ONLY WIDE RECEIVER ON THE ROSTER who caught a pass last year.
With Moore’s success, WMU was able to hit the portal and bring in a couple of Power Five refugees:
* AJ Abbott (6-2, 200, Sr., Northville, Mich.).
He had two catches in 2020, and 1 catch last year in three games.
* Jehlani Galloway (5-11, 187, Sr., Providence, R.I.)
He had two catches in 2020, none last year
“They have both done a good job and are getting more comfortable by the minute,” Lester said.
Anthony Sambucci (6-1, 190, Soph. Lemont, Ill.) has played on special teams and waited for his moment.
As for Crooms, he had four catches for 58 yards against Michigan.
He had eight catches for 161 yards against Pitt.
He had this 75-yard TD in a 52-24 victory over Nevada in the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit last year.
In this play, they put him in the slot, found a favorable matchup. He got loose with a double move nod to the post and outside release. A shaky slot defender became off-balance and got burned.
So what does this play mean for Michigan State? Well, Tim Lester’s offenses, like a lot of offenses, search for matchup advantages from the slot.
Who is your slot defender? If you’re not good there, you have problems. If that guy can’t cover a quick double-move AND provide sturdy play against the run, you have problems.
Most teams have problems.
Last year, Michigan State had Darius Snow as its primary slot defender, although there are times when a safety gets forced into that duty.
Snow was solid last year. But he has moved primarily to inside linebacker, gained about 12 pounds.
Snow says he will play some nickel slot this year as well. He likes to think of himself as a versatile positionless type of second-level defender. But you’ll know when I know. I’m not sure what to expect from Michigan State in terms of nickel defenders.
Chester Kimbrough played nickel in the spring scrimmage. Michigan State likes to have a guy with CB skills in the slot/nickel area against finesse passing attacks. I’m expecting Kimbrough to be that guy as the starter in this game, but I could be wrong.
10. The WMU offensive line returns two starters. I watched those guys against Pitt this week.
Some are projecting Jacob Gideon (6-2, 295, Soph., Union, Ky.) as the starting center for WMU. He played left guard against Pitt. He looked a little clunky, but capable. There was one time he was beaten badly on an inside swim/swipe move. Learning moment. Young guy. I’m not closing the door on him, but he doesn’t seem to be a physical marvel.
Lester says the first-string OL has worked as a unit and stayed intact since the beginning of spring.
“We have three new starters who kind of look like veterans out there,” Lester said.
The three:
LG Trevor Campbell (6-3, 315, R-Sr., Naperville, Ill.)
RG Addison West (6-3, 302, R-Soph., Cary, Ill.)
RT Jack Sherwin (6-3, 298, R-Soph., Traverse City Central)
Shewin is a former yackle who played a lot of blocking tight end until he got his weight up to OT size, Lester said.
Overall, I’m not sure what to think of this offensive line. Lester makes it sound like he’s pleased with the progress.
WMU did some solid stuff with its offensive front last year, working with tight splits, good discipline. They had nice offensive balance.
What does it mean for Michigan State?
11. The Spartan defensive tackles SHOULD dominate against this inexperienced, smallish WMU interior. If the Michigan State d-tackle tag teams are as good as we think they are, they should uproot WMU’s inside zone plays, and their center-pulls and their powers.
The WMU pass game component can’t possibly be as good as last year, which should make it that much more difficult for the Broncos to establish their talented tailbacks.
12. As for defense, WMU ranked No. 4 in the MAC in yards allowed per play last year and seventh in scoring defense.
The Broncos have a capable DT in No. 55 Braden Fiske (6-5, 300, R-Jr., Michigan City, Ind.) He’s a Maverick Hansen type. Fiske had 7.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks last year.
At d-end, Andre Carter (No. 1, 6-5, 263, R-Jr., Detroit Cass Tech) doesn’t look out of place. He had five TFLs last season.
I don’t have much of anything on the other guys.
14. WMU’s has three starting LBs returning.
No. 20 is the guy in the middle, Corvin Moment (6-0, 245, R-Sr., Vero Beach, Fla.). He had three TFLs last year.
He has average change of direction, average burst. Decent size. Not a difference-maker. Kind of a Shane Jones type of guy, but with longer hair, a little thicker, maybe a little slower.
No. 3 is their other inside linebacker, Zaire Barnes (6-1, 227, Sr., Mundelin, Ill.) He had five TFLs last year and was second-team All-MAC.
He has quick feet, and can slalom through the wash. He’s what I call a sports car linebacker, kind of like Antjuan Simmons.
13. What does this mean for MSU’s offensive line?
The Spartan o-line is probably the biggest x-factor on the team. There are five guys in the starting lineup with starting experience.
But Jarrett Horst needs to stay grounded at left tackle. He’s key. He’s proven.
JD Duplain should be ready to take a step toward becoming a plus player at left guard.
At center, Nick Samac has kind of flat-lined in the last couple of years while sharing time with Matt Allen. Many might have assumed that he would have overtaken Allen last year, but he didn’t. He struggled in the Peach Bowl.
Now that Samac is THE man at center, he needs to get his slope of improvement on the uptick again. We’ll see how he does against Fiske and company in the first public sparring of the season.
Things look favorable for Matt Carrick at right guard. I’ve said many times that I thought he was playing the best football of his career last year when he was a back-up at right guard for Kevin Jarvis. Carrick was an emergency spot starter at right guard as a freshman and sophomore. But he was better last year - until he went down with a knee injury midway through the season.
Coaches and doctors brought him along steadily but slowly during the spring, summer and early part of training camp. But from the things we’ve seen, it appears he has been repping with the ones at right guard, and things sound favorable.
Michigan State brought in Brian Greene as a transfer from Washington State. He was honorable mention All-Pac 12 in four games at WSU in 2020. I never saw film of him in 2020, but I saw film of him last year and he was just kind of okay. He was NOT as good last year as Matt Carrick was.
Greene has the ability to play center, so that may have helped snap Samac to attention.
Greene is a solid reliever to have in the bullpen. But if Carrick starts in front of him, i wouldn’t be surprised.
If Greene starts, that means he beat out what I assume is a decent version of Carrick. Either way, the competition has a chance to yield a solid RG situation.
At right tackle, Spencer Brown was a pleasant surprise in his emergency start in the Peach Bowl, against a terrific Pitt defensive end rotation. But Brown was just kind of okay in the spring scrimmage.
I don’t think Brown has knocked anyone dead during preseason practice, but we are hearing good things about his leadership. He wants to deliver. He has the frame to do it.
Brown proved to be a gamer in the bowl game. That’s a good sign.
14. The big question on the Michigan State offensive line:
If Horst needs to rotate out, like he did last year, who is No. 2 at LT. Brandon Baldwin (6-7, 315, R-Soph.) has been getting a lot of reps in practice with the ones, dating back to last spring.
He’s a long-armed athlete with nice movement skills. Would he be ready to float at left tackle in a sink-or-swim emergency? That’s what we need to find out.
Ethan Boyd (6-7, 325, R-Fr., East Lansing) is right on schedule at right tackle. He has gotten some reps at the ones when Brown has needed to a stool.
Is Boyd better at RT than Baldwin is at LT? That’s debatable. That’s possible.
How about Spencer Brown? Michigan State rep'd him at left tackle in the spring, and other times, just to get him acclimated to the position in case of emergency.
So if Horst has to come out, who is the left tackle? Baldwin? Or do you go with Spencer Brown at LT and use Boyd at RT?
Only the guys in the war room know the answer to that, but it’s a scenario they have rehearsed and must be prepared for.
**
Overall, the WMU defensive front is decent by MAC standards, but if Michigan State has the type of offensive line that can help Michigan State make noise in the Big Ten East then the Spartans SHOULD win this matchup soundly.
Last year, Michigan rushed for 335 yards against WMU in a 47-14 victory. Michigan had 43 rush attempts and only 17 pass attempts.
Michigan’s ground attack was mature and steady last year. Michigan State isn’t expected to be at that level this year, but some TKO moments in the run game, without Kenneth Walker III, would be a welcomed sign for the Spartans.
SEVEN THINGS I’LL BE WATCHING RE: Michigan State
1. Who is the starting RB? How explosive is Michigan State at that position? Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard have ability to and through the hole, but I am not expecting Michigan State to have home run ability at the RB position comparable to last year. That’s no surprise. Does Michigan State have the personnel elsewhere to make up for it? And can the new corps of RBs be productive?
We haven’t heard much about Harold Joiner, but he continues to work. Can Michigan State find ways to get the ball to him in space, maybe like Connor Heyward? You’ll know when I know.
2. The TE picture is intriguing and positive for Michigan State. Daniel Barker, the Illinois transfer, is expected to give the Spartans their first two-way (blocking and receiving) tight end of the Tucker era. Offensive coordinator Jay Johnson wants pieces like that. How much will Barker figure into the chain-moving schematics. I’m eager to find out.
Tyler Hunt is a proven player, and improved at 15 pounds heavier.
Maliq Carr is the future at the position. He has been behind the wall a bit (NASCAR term) in August camp, but his time should come at some point. He might not start this season with the type of bang we might expect after his loud finish to 2021.
3. We know Jayden Reed is excellent. We know Tre Mosley can deliver when called upon. Keon Coleman and Germie Bernard are the future. Coleman is primed for a breakout performance. He has gotten a lot of ink during the spring and summer. He’s worthy of it. Now he needs to produce with the lights on. Solid chance he has a big breakout on Friday night. And Bernard isn’t far behind.
4. At place kicker, I’m kind of expecting true freshman Jack Stone to get the call. But Auburn transfer Ben Patton is more than capable, and proven at this level. Overall, I feel better about MSU’s place kicker situation than I did six months ago, mainly because there are two solid competitors vying for the job, plus a third in walk-on Steve Rusnak.
5. At defensive end, Michigan State is bit thin and not all that big. Does WMU have the tools to go at this potential weakness? Yes, WMu has the RBs, but do they have the blockers to really challege Michigan State at the edge? They’ll try.
Khris Bogle, the transfer from Florida, needs to show that he is a gamer. He hasn’t knocked anyone dead in practice. He has decent, long-arm, wiry-strength at the point of attack for a play or two. Can he do it play after play? That’s what he came here to do. Friday, we begin to find out.
Jeff Pietrowski has been a solid role player as a d-end. Is he ready to become a bell cow? I’ll believe it when I see it.
Brandon Wright is one of the more improved players in the program. I think he is ready to pay on running downs and provide the occasional plus play in pass rush.
Will Wright and Pietrowski (and even Slade and Barrow) look noticeably improved in their pass rush, thanks to the work of new pass rush coach Brandon Jordan? You’ll begin to find out when I do.
6. Will Michigan State reconfigure anything in the pass defense? Angelo Grose is a respectable battler. He’s a hitter, a good tackler. But Michigan State needs reliable ball judgement and pass defense back there at safety. Xavier Henderson is going to provide it. Grose struggled in that area last year in his first season (ever) as a safety. Michigan State has worked to bring him along. Is he ready? If not, what’s Plan B? Is there a second-strong safety ready to step up, or is there a new grouping with multiple cornerbacks on the field? And if so, can a lighter back seven support the run?
7. Darius Snow. He is improving rapidly, too. I’m hearing good things about him. He was solid last year as a nickel. I’m hearing now that he is about 12 or 13 pounds heavier, and a year smarter, he is smacking people at his new position as a linebacker. I think he’s going to be a starter. I think he will team up well with Aaron Brulé or Cal Haladay. The rotation will be good.
Jacoby Windmon came in to be a slash LB/DE. It looks like he is more of a d-end at this point, and that’s what Michigan State needs. Whether or not he is ready to make a big impact from day one is a bit of a question. But be patient. He will make a nice impact soon.
ADD IT ALL UP
In nine games against Power Five and Power Independent opponents in the Tim Lester era, WMU has given up 40-plus points in eight of those nine games. The lone exception was a 28-14 affair against a poor Michigan State offense in 2017.
WMU is 1-8 in those games, losing by 33 to Michigan, 19 to Syracuse, 34 to Michigan State, 23 to Syracuse, 46 to Michigan, 31 to BYU, 14 to Michigan State and 18 to USC.
The one victory was WMU’s most recent game against a Power Five opponent, last year’s 44-41 upset victory over eventual ACC Champion Pittsburgh.
So is WMU going to look more like the WMU of those other eight games, or more like they did in their most recent game against a Power Five opponent?
WMU has confidence, after an 8-5 season, a bowl victory, and the win at Pitt. And they should be confident and proud.
The question is whether WMU is ready to reload, or if WMU will take a step backward while developing its next dangerous QB?
I suspect the latter.
But we can’t know for sure, because we’ve never seen these guys play. Nor have we seen this version of Michigan State.
If Michigan State is ready to have another Top 15 type of season, then the Spartans should be able to march through this game three touchdowns better than this credible but presumably rebuilding MAC opponent.
If Michigan State is indeed ready to have another Top 15 season, then the Mel Tucker train is only going to gain steam. If that happens, he will continue to establish himself as the most dangerous man in college football, the likes of which Michigan State has never quite had at its helm.
This game against WMU won’t answer the question as to whether Michigan State is ready and able to have another Top 15 or Top 10 season. We might not know the answer to that question for three or four or five more weeks.
But if the answer is “no,” there’s a chance we will get that answer in week one. That’s not the answer you want, coming out of this game.
You want some good exercise, some good sparring, and a convincing victory and a 1-0 record. Real good chance that’s what you’ll get.
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