Pre-Snap Read: MSU vs Northwestern
By Jim Comparoni
SparanMag.com Publisher
EVANSTON, Ill. - Last week, my opening sentence was that Indiana was better than Minnesota.
I think that deducton is obvious now, despite Indiana’s 0-4 record in the Big Ten - and that’s not something one would have expected to be the case in August.
This week, it’s clear that Northwestern - with a healthy Justin Jackson starting to get rolling and a terrific run defense - is better than Indiana, Minnesota and Iowa.
Michigan State narrowly beat Indiana, Iowa and Minnesota (on the scoreboard). So the calculous is simple for the Spartans this week: Michigan State needs to find that next level of improvement that has evaded them in recent games, if Michigan State is going to beat Northwestern, advance to 7-1 and creep into the national Top 15.
The Spartans have the capacity to do it. And Northwestern has the capacity to stop them cold.
Both teams are seeking the next level of improvement, and that’s the one of the more fascinating things about college football. Teams can make major improvements, or go on steep nosedives. A lot of it depends on health, player leadership, coaching. Michigan State has good amounts of each this year. There is potential to build toward an unknown ceiling of potential.
Compare that to the NBA. Ninety percent of the teams in that league are what they are, right now, and they aren’t going to change - for better or worse - between now and April. So it’s just a traveling individual show with coast-level effort, for 80 games.
College football? Michigan State could hit a wall in this game, lose, and head straight toward 8-4 or worse. Or they could achieve that next level of improvement, and do outlandish things like run for 160 yards against a team that has stuffed the run, and/or get 285 yards passing out Brian Lewerke. Those things are possible, and if they happen against THIS Northwestern defense, a good defense, then Michigan State will deserve every inch of its 7-1 start.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
Northwestern is excellent at stopping the run, smart in pass defense. They are suspect in one-on-one matchups in the defensive backfield and when opportunities present themselves Michigan State MUST capitalize. There won’t be a ton of opportunities.
Michigan State QB Brian Lewerke has played winning football. Playing winning football COULD be more difficult this week, if Michigan State is unable to get the ground game going, is faced with tough third-down situations AND is giving up points on defense. A lot could end up in Lewerke’s lap, and although we’ve seen him as a starter for a good solid year now, we still learn more about him as we go.
I THOUGHT Michigan State was ready to break into a new level of pass game proficiency in each of the last two weeks, but it hasn’t quite happened (partly due to the weather at Minnesota, and also the fact that Michigan State ran the ball so well two weeks ago they didn’t need to probe the passing attack).
Last week, the Michigan State passing attack took a long time to get off the ground, but the best news is that Lewerke and his receivers - including the young ones - came through with excellence in the last nine minutes of the game against a quality Indiana defense. The level of confidence, and knowledge, is escalating - although slowly. It needs to continue to escalate for this game.
Northwestern has rebounded from a bad start, and is now playing quality football - having beaten Minnesota and Iowa in the past two weeks. RB Justin Jackson was injured early in the year, but is rolling now. The o-line was substandard early in the year, and has straightened things out to the point of being somewhat functional (but still suspect).
Jackson is one of the most prolific RBs in Big Ten history. He’s very good, although their running attack is not all that varied. I expect Michigan State to keep a handle on him, although he might be most dangerous in this game as a ball carrier on third and long.
NU has a deep cast of possession WRs. They execute an uptempo, ball-control passing attack, with a lot of sit-down routes, and snag combinations, mesh concepts, and flat/slant combos to the two-WR side. They repeat a lot of those patterns. They rank among the nation’s leaders in pass completions, but they aren’t an explosive offense.
NU quarterback Clayton Thorson runs warm-to-hot. That leads to this week’s arms race:
By far, Thorson will be the best passing QB Michigan State has faced this year. He looks very good at times against poor defenses - such as Maryland two weeks ago or at Michigan State last year. He isn’t so good against quality defenses. You might think that’s a no-brainer, but the high-end QBs can elevate and play lights-out against the best defenses. He hasn’t shown he can do that - yet.
Well, now he gets a chance to play against - statistically - one of the best pass defenses in the country. Can Thorson elevate against a top defense?
Michigan State ranks No. 4 in the country in pass defense efficiency, and No. 4 in total defense.
But is Michigan State truly a top defense, or are its lofty numbers aided by the fact that they’ve played mediocre passing attacks?
That’s this week’s arms race. Who is going to elevate? Thorson against a quality pass defense? Can Michigan State’s pass offense from from a B-minus outfit to a B-plus/A-minus attack? Can MSU’s run game do something Wisconsin and Penn State couldn’t do - and rush for more than 110 yards against this stingy Northwestern defensive front?
Turnovers and specials teams errors aside, the above macro events will decide this game. If we’re sticking with the body of work, the modes of operation, I would expect Thorson to be pretty good, not great. I would expect Lewerke to remain pretty good, not great. I would expect both teams to have trouble running the ball. I don’t see a big edge either way in the punt game, whereas NU has more proven ability in place kicking.
The most likely scenario is another one of these 17-14 type of games we’ve seen with Michigan State vs Michigan, Michigan State vs Indiana, Michigan State vs Iowa, Northwestern vs Iowa.
With that being the case, Northwestern has the edge of playing at home. Michigan State has been more hungry than its opponents, most of the year. Will that remain the case in this game? It needs to be. Michigan State can’t afford to be deficient in the effort & will category.
Michigan State has an edge in skill at the WR positions, just like it did against Iowa - and that proved to be a major tipping point in that game. It could be a tipping point in this game, and it needs to be. I would expect Michigan State to be willing to take more vertical shots. Play-action deep, play-action skinny post, play-action vertical to the cover-three seam - Michigan State has the athletes to stretch the top of the NU defense, if not take the top off of it. Iowa jumped to an early lead last week due to a couple of deep shots, but Iowa didn’t continue to press things in that area and quite frankly didn’t have the athletes to do it. Michigan State has them.
Michigan State can make best use of its WR talent if the Spartans can get the run game going. But I wouldn’t expect Michigan State to be as committed to trying to establish the run last week as they were last week. Last week, Michigan State invested a lot of snaps and drives in trying to get that done, and might have succeeded if it wasn’t for a couple of mishandled shot gun snaps, a dropped pass, a fumble, and a couple of ground throws by Lewerke, and a couple of play calls that the Michigan State coaching staff would obviously like to have back. It wasn’t one main area that caused MSU’s offense to run dry last week; it was a vast array of small issues. Those are issues that can be corrected by a team that, through it all, still possesses the POTENTIAL to be a dangerous, balanced offensive attack.
Michigan State looked potent on the ground in rushed for 260-plus against Minnesota.
Lewerke looked swift in throwing for 340 yards against Notre Dame. But he’s still seeking that next level of proficiency. Those numbers against the Irish were compiled in a comeback situation against a defense that played soft in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, he has a potent, 300-yard passing game in him - and this might be the week it needs to come out.
MSU’s receivers have all had their moments of stardom.
So when is Michigan State going to put it all together? It’s still a young team. Now might be the time. Now needs to be the time. But I’m not big on trying to market-time these type of jumps. But I do think MSU’s edge at WR, as was the case against Iowa, could and should be the difference, as long as turnovers don’t creep too much into the equation.
The good news for Michigan State in the turnover department is that NU has thad more problems in that area than Michigan State. But NU had no turnovers against Iowa. Similarly, Michigan State had no turnovers against Iowa. Trying to forcecast turnovers is kind of impossible, although Michigan State has the type of athleticism, solid communication and multiple coverages (and run defense) that can put Thorson in a bind and lead to poor throws from him. Yet Northwestern has the type of heady, hearty, physical defenders that can pop the ball loose from Lewerke, LJ Scott and Madre London. So good luck trying to figure that one out.
And good luck trying to figure this game out.
But here is a stat to remember: As a ranked team, Michigan State has only lost to an unranked opponent three times under Dantonio (37-3; at Notre Dame, 2011; at Nebraska, 2015; at Indiana, 2016). The Indiana game hardly counts because Michigan State wasn’t deserving of a ranking when the Spartans lost that game last year.
Take that one out of the equation and Michigan State is 37-2 under Dantonio when Michigan State is ranked and the opponent is not.
What does that mean for this game: It means Dantonio and his staff have done a great job of getting good Spartan teams to handle their business. That type of ethic, that type of quality control, carries over from the Kirk Cousins days, to the Connor Cook era, and most likely into 2017.
Michigan State hasn’t lost at Northwestern since 2001. Dantonio has had problems at home against Northwestern, but not on the road. Dantonio has a way of handling his business. Give him an edge at WR and Michigan State might have the edge in eking out another one of these tight, low-scoring Big Ten games.
THE LATEST ON Michigan State:
* Michigan State held Indiana to its lowest offensive output of the season (253 yards).
* Michigan State has held four opponents under 100 yards rushing this year. Michigan State is 59-8 under Dantonio when holding teams under 100 yards rushing.
* Three times, Michigan State has not allowed an offensive touchdown (vs. Indiana, Western Michigan, Bowling Green).
* Although MSU’s scoring defense is officially 16.9 points per game, the defense itself is only allowing 12.9 points per game.
* Michigan State’s defense has only allowed nine touchdowns this season, with four of those coming against Notre Dame and three in the final 10 minutes at Minnesota.
• MSU has held opponents to just 15 trips inside the red zone, second fewest in the Big Ten and 10th fewest in the FBS.
* Michigan State 24 pct effective (gained four yards or more) on first down against Indiana, according to Gerry DiNardo.
We talked about this in the Skull Session (without citing those numbers) but cited that Michigan State tried to change things up from the second quarter on, with play-action passing out of pro-set/I-formation personnel on the first play of the drive on six of its last seven possessions.
* Andrew Dowell had a career-high 10 tackles last week, and he took on blockers when playing the WR screen better than ever.
• The Spartans are looking to begin Big Ten play 5-0 for just the fourth time in school history. Under Dantonio, the Spartans went a perfect 8-0 in regular-season league action in 2013 before winning the Big Ten title over Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. MSU also started 5-0 in the Big Ten en route to winning conference titles in 1965 (7-0) and 1966 (7-0).
• Following another strong defensive performance against Indiana, MSU continues to rank among the Big Ten leaders in several defensive categories, including total defense (first at 262.3 ypg), first downs defense (first with 97), rushing defense (second at 93.6 ypg), pass efficiency defense (second with 98.3 rating), passing defense (third at 168.7 ypg), third-down percentage defense (second at .282) and scoring defense (fourth at 16.9 ppg). The Spartans also rank among the FBS leaders in pass efficiency defense (fourth), total defense (fourth), first downs defense (fourth), rushing defense (eighth), passing defense (ninth), third-down defense (11th) and scoring defense (14th).
“I remember getting ready for our game a year ago, reading Mark’s comments about self-inflicted mistakes from a communication standpoint, and you just don’t see that happening right now,” said NU coach Pat Fitzgerald.
MORE STATS:
* Brian Lewerke ranks fourth in the Big Ten in total offense, averaging 239.3 yards per game (194.6 passing ypg, 44.7 rushing ypg). He led the Spartans in rushing through the first five games of the season and still ranks second among Big Ten quarterbacks in rushing, averaging 44.7 ypg (Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett is first, averaging 51.3 ypg).
Lewerke ranks fifth in the Big Ten in pass efficiency, seventh in passing yards (94.6 ypg), and rushing (14th at 44.7 ypg).
* Lewerke is completing 59 pct of his passes with 10 TDs and three INTs.
* MSU is 28-14 (.667) in Big Ten road games under Dantonio, including a 22-8 record (.733) since 2010.
* Michigan State hasn’t lost at Northwestern since 2001, when I vaguely remember problems in defending a Hail Mary and a punt, and having only 10 Spartans on the field for one of the pivotal moments.
GAME RESULTS
W: Northwestern 31, Nevada 20
L: Duke 41, Northwestern 17 (Sept. 9 in Durham, NC)
* NU was out-rushed 233-22 in that game.
* NU was somehow held to 14 of 33 passing with 2 INTs.
“Duke wanted it more than us, out-executed us, out-coached us, out-hit us and we didn’t win enough one-on-one battles,” Fitzgerald said after the game.
* Duke ran a lot of RPOs. Michigan State does some of that, but that’s MSU’s jam.
“Our physicality wasn’t where it needed to be in the Duke game,” said standout d-end Joe Gaziano.
W: Northwestern 49, Bowling Green 7
L: Wisconsin 33, Northwestern 24
total offense: Badgers 306, Northwestern 244
(Not many yards for all those points).
L: Penn State 31, Northwestern 7
PSU led 10-0 at halftime.
W: Northwestern 37, Maryland 21
W: Northwestern 17, Iowa 10 (OT)
THE LATEST
* Two straight wins, following decent showings vs Penn State and Wisconsin (decent for awhile vs PSU but PSU pulled away in the second half.)
* Iowa lost last week to Northwestern when Iowa TE Noah Fant dropped a first-down pass in overtime on fourth-down.
* NU out-rushed Maryland 238-85 two weeks ago. (That’s a Maryland team that is a run-first spread offense, a Terps team that rushed for 262 yards against Minnesota).
* NU has the capacity to play balanced football. Against Maryland, NU rushed for 248 and passed for 293.
* Three weeks ago, NU was able to hang with Penn State for awhile, trailing just 10-0 at halftime.
LAST YEAR: 54-40
Last year, Michigan State’s season began to head toward rock bottom when the Spartans lost 54-40 at home to Northwestern, falling to 2-4.
Michigan State players were amazed this year to watch the number of assignment mistakes Spartan defensive players committed in that game last year. It’s not hard for the to see how much they have improved, based largely on being assignment-sound. That has likely reinforced the importance of adhering to assignments, and should help Michigan State maintain good quality control for this game and possibly weeks to come.
Last year, Northwestern out-gained Michigan State on the ground, 209-51.
Last year, Clayton Thorson cherry picked his way to 281 yards passing on 27 of 35 accuracy with 3 TDs and 1 INT (which was a pick-six by brand new CB Justin Layne).
Last year, Lewerke started for the first time and was 12 of 19 for 99 yards before being relieved by Tyler O’Connor, who went 13 of 21 for 281.
NU wide receiver Austin Carr riddled Michigan State with 11 catches for 130 yards, including seeming unstoppable on simple out routes from the slot vs Michigan State safeties. MSU’s safeties might not be as athletic as they were last year, but three is better commitment, smarter play and Michigan State is more varied with its coverages.
NORTHWESTERN OFFENSE
*NU ranks No. 4 in the Big Ten in total offense.
* No. 3 in pass offense 256 yards per game 9 TDs 9 INTs
* No. 11 in yards per pass attempt. Not so great.
* No. 11 in pass efficiency (Michigan State no. 8). Not so great.
* Have allowed more sacks than any team in the Big Ten. Not so great.
* No. 13 in Big Ten in turnover margin (Indiana No. 14 +1 vs Michigan State). Not so great.
NORTHWESTERN TRAITS AND TRENDS
* Justin Jackson is simply one of the most prolific RBs in Big Ten history. He was injured earlier in the year, played hurt against Duke and others. He’s been healthy the last couple of weeks, is playing well as a tailback AND a pass catching threat. NU is a different team when he is healthy and rolling.
* NU had at least two turnovers in each of their first six games but had zero against Iowa.
* They love to go for it on fourth down. They went for it five times last week against Iowa, including a fourth-and-1 sneak in the red zone, although eventually leading to a field goal and a 10-7 lead.
* NU has gone for it on fourth down 22 times this year, more than twice as many times as eight of the other 13 teams in the Big Ten. (Next closest is Iowa and Purdue with 13 apiece. Michigan State has gone for it 10 times).
* NU is converting at 59 pct on fourth down, seventh best in the Big Ten.
* NU’s 13 conversions on fourth down is the most in the Big Ten.
* What it means: From the 40-yard line to the red zone, third-and-long is a running down for NU. I said the same thing last year. But Michigan State twice went with nickel defense (and fewer run defenders) on third and long in this part of the field and surrendered back-breaking long gainers on the ground on third-and-long.
On third-and-long inside the 40, NU likes to run the ball, to set up fourth-and-manageable.
* Northwestern ranks 125th out of 130 in IsoPPP, a stat that measures explosiveness per play.
* As a side note, Pat Fitzgerald coached while wearing shorts, black shorts, for NU’s game at Maryland. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a coach in shorts for a game
* Iowa really missed Josey Jewell at MLB last week. His replacement, No. 44, Neuman, looked like a back-up. Jewell was out with an injury.
OFFENSIVE TRAITS
* They almost always use a mesh concept (which is a fancy, modern way of saying criss-cross routes at shallow depth) on third down.
(But NU was flagged for pass interference on the rub on this play twice in the first half last week. Fitzgerald protested. Probably something the officials talked about BEFORE the game.)
* Wind can be a factor at Ryan Field. Last week, NU played for the tie and overtime when it gained possession at own 25-yard line with 1:30 left in the game. Fitzgerald said the decision was due to wind, Iowa’s defense, field position. Said he preferred a 25-yard even game. Worked out for him, but wow. I’m not sure it was THAT windy. 90 seconds and they ran the clock out. This is a team that goes for it on fourth down at a whim. They are conflicted. But it worked.
TEMPO AS FATIGUE WEAPON
* NU have the capacity to snap at 11 seconds, they make you get ready at 11 seconds, but they usually hold it and wait and snap it at 20 seconds.
* They want to use tempo, and ball control passing, to move the chains, keep your guys on the field and fatigue you.
One of their assistant coaches said last week that they felt midway through the Iowa game that if they strung together first downs, Iowa’s defense would wilt because they didn’t play enough second-stringers - and that’s kind of what happened (and that continues to be one of the new determining factors of defensive excellence. How much depth do you have, from snap to snap and how well can you substitute on the fly)?
Iowa wasn’t great at it last week. Michigan State is pretty good at it, and it should come in handy for this game for the Spartans. NU will see that Michigan State will substitute even if the offense doesn’t. It will be interesting to see if NU tries to quick-snap it while Michigan State is trying to execute a hockey-line type of change. No one has tried that vs Michigan State. NU has the capacity to do so.
* In NU’s ball-control spread tempo offense it seems like Thorson reads short-to-long, with the primary being a short route and if it’s open, he’s going to it now. If it’s not open, that’s when he gets into the habit of holding the ball too long, going to his second read without the decisiveness they would like to have out of him. We were
THE MICRO: OFFENSIVE PERSONNEL
QUARTERBACK
(Players of note in bold)
QB CLAYTON THORSON (6-4, 225, Jr., Wheaton, Ill.)
* Was a four-star recruit, No. 7 in Illinois, No. 6 dual-threat QB, No. 136 in the nation.
* He leads the league and ranking 18th in the nation in completions per game (22.6). NU’s ball-control passing attack and uptempo offense are big reasons for it.
* Thorson is also third in the conference and 49th in the country in total offense (241.1 ypg).
* For the year he is completing 60 pct of his passes with 8 TDS and 9 INTS.
* Last week: 21 of 36 for 192 with 0 TDs and 0 INTs vs Iowa. Rushed 13 times for 40 in gainers, for a net of 23.
* vs Maryland: 27 of 49 for 293 with 1 TD and 2 INTs. Rushed 9 times for 48 gross, net of 43.
* vs Wisconsin: 29 of 45 for 219, 3 TDs, 2 INTs.
* Worst game: 11 of 29 for 120 with 2 INTs with 4 sacks at Duke on Sept. 9.
Fitzgerald said NU’s WRs failed to win one-on-one battles in that game against base cover-one, man-to-man. Michigan State is capable of playing man-to-man. Will Michigan State stick with man-to-man more often this game than in the past two or three weeks? Michigan State played a ton of man-to-man in the first two games of the year, and has been more balanced during Big Ten play - but they have the capacity to go heavy in one direction or the other, man or zone, depending on what they see fit for a given opponent. This is a strength.
* For the season: 179 yards in ground gainers for Thorson, 179 yards in losses for net of 0 yards rushing on the year.
* Thorson can look spectacular at times, when the defense is bad. As was the case last year vs Michigan State and a couple of weeks ago against Maryland, the Big Ten’s worst statistical defense.
When defenses are elevated, Thorson doesn’t always elevate his game to go with it. Not yet anyway. This year’ s version of Michigan State will be his latest chance to show progress.
- When he throws downfield, sometimes he makes bad decisions, into crowds. He seems like a system QB to me. He looks good within it at times, and sometimes very good (like on those slot out routes vs safeties which killed Michigan State last year).
But if he has to read more than one receiver, he usually opts to check down to the safe flat receiver. If he decides to go downfield to a second read, he gets into trouble.
+ Strong arm when he sets down into it, like Hoyer used to be in that regard.
+ Impressive 10-yard strike to WR Lees from right hash to left sideline, on a line, on fourth-and-7 in the second quarter vs Maryland.
* Sometimes holds the ball too long. Coaches say he needed to get rid of the ball quicker in the first half of the season, and it’s still in need of improvement.
* Combine those last to asterisks together and you have to question his CONFIDENCE in throwing downfield right now (although he had no problem throwing the slot out vs Michigan State to Austin Carr last week).
* He is an opportunistic runner, not a great runner. Not as good a runner as Lewerke. More of a Tyler O’Connor caliber runner, but with more size.
* They will use him on the zone read, and he’ll keep it if you over-play Jackson. He’ll carry on the zone read six or seven times a game. Not a game-breaker with his feet but can move the chains.
+ Tuck and run on third and 15 last week vs man to man vs gain of 21 extended a drive that became NU’s first TD of the game, midway through the 3Q.
+ Tuck and run vs man-to-man vs Maryland for 18-yard TD romp.
- 3-11 ugly INT on intermediate out to the wide side of the field vs Maryland, overthrew WR by 10 feet AND stared it down, which allowed the safety to come over and cherry-pick.
(Back-ups in parentheses)
(QB MATT ALVITI, 6-0, 204, Sr., Park Ridge, Ill.)
* No. 2 QB. Was 3 of 4 for 49 yards with 1 TD in relief at Duke.
NORTHWESTERN RUN GAME VS MSU
• Michigan State ranks second in the Big Ten and eighth in the FBS in rushing defense (93.6 ypg). MSU has held four opponents under 100 yards rushing this season (Bowling Green had 67 in season opener on Sept. 2; Iowa had 19 on Sept. 30; Minnesota had 74 on Oct. 14; Indiana had 95 on Oct. 21), and No. 7 Michigan had a season-low 102 yards on Oct. 7.
• Michigan State has allowed just three rushes of 20-plus yards, tied for the third fewest in the FBS, and just 17 rushes of 10-plus yards, tied for fourth fewest.
* NU’s rushing attack is on an uptick. RB Justin Jackson was injured earlier in the year, but is now rolling. The NU o-line was a problem earlier in the year. It’s still an area of question, but it’s improving.
* My expectation: NU will have trouble running the ball on first and second down. NU will need to make hay through its keep-away, ball control passing attack, aided by tempo after a first down or two.
* NU’s run game can be dangerous on third-and-long. Michigan State likes to go with nickel defense on third down, that usually means playing man-to-man with lighter defense on the field. If Jackson is going to have a breakout carry or two, it could come on third down, like he did last year.
RB 21 JUSTIN JACKSON (5-11, 200, Sr., Carol Stream, Ill, Glenbard North)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 8 in Illinois and No. 156 in the country.
* Economics major with a French minor.
* No. 8 all-time in Big Ten rushing yards.
* For the season: 603 yards rushing, 86 yards per game, averaging 4.5 per carry.
* He also leads the Wildcats receiving with 26 catches for 167 yards (6.4 ypc/23.9 ypg).
* As a receiver, they don’t stretch him downfield much. It’s mostly short routes to the flat. But they do split him out as a wide out a lot - but they haven’t sent him deep much that I’ve seen.
* They use him on inside zone, zone read, outside zone, sweeps, speed option pitches. They will pull linemen once in awhile on sweeps. And they will put the center a little bit. But they aren’t real varied with traps, or power, or misdirection.
* He picks his way on outside zone read, vision, cuts hard on cutbacks. Can shake and bake as he approaches the line of scrimmage with patience.
* Deceptively strong, often makes first man miss or surges through the next.
* The way he shakes and bakes with his shoulders while he is eating up yards downfield and trying to elude defensive backs, he kind of reminds me of lighter Lorenzo White with the way he does that.
+ Picked up third-and-19 on an inside zone in 2Q vs Maryland with a gain of 23. Third and long, your nickel had better be ready to play the run.
* Lateral movement for nice jump cuts.
* Last week: 93 yards on 25 carries. Five catches, 38 yards, including a huge 23-yarder in overtime.
* Vs Maryland: 28 rushes, 171 yards, long of 25.
* Had only seven carries in loss at Duke for 18 yards, including an 8-yard TD run. “He came in a little banged up,” Fitzgerald said after the game.
* Only 9 carries (25 yards) against Wisconsin.
++ Turned in the play of the game last week, on third-and-9 in OT, leaked out to the flat on a little flare route. He was the primary receiver. He made MLB miss in space and broke three tackles in all, dipping and darting, stopping and starting, to the 1-yard line, setting up a TD and a 17-10 lead that would be the margin of victory.
For his career:
* In wins: he averages 26 carries, 134 yards
* In losses: 16 carries, 67 yards
Big Ten’s All-Time Leading Rushers:
1. Ron Dayne, Wisconsin, 7,125
2. Archie Griffin, Ohio State, 5,589
3. Anthony Thompson, Indiana, 5,299
4. Montee Ball, Wisconsin, 5,140
5. Mike Hart, Michigan, 5,040
6. Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin, 4,915
7. Lorenzo White, Michigan State, 4,887
8. Justin Jackson, Northwestern, 4732
9. Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska, 4,744
He needs 155 yards to surpass MSU’s Lorenzo White.
RB 28 JEREMY LARKIN (5-10, 194, R-Fr., Cincinnati La Salle)
* NU rode him in the red zone last week midway through the fourth quarter on an option pitch (gain of 7), inside zone (gain of 5) and option pitch (6-yard TD) on consecutive uptempo plays.
* Last week: 32 yards on 7 carries.
* Vs Maryland: 5 rushes, 21 yards.
WIDE RECEIVERS: FOUR VERSIONS OF THE SAME GUY
* Very balanced receiving attack.
* Five different players with at least 20 receptions (counting RB Jackson).
(By comparison, Michigan State has only two receivers with more than 12 catches - Felton Davis and Darrell Stewart. Hunter Rison and Cody White rank tied for third on the team with 11 catches each).
* They spread out their pass catchers. Last week four players with three catches or more, including RB Justin Jackson. The Wildcats had four receivers with at least three catches two weeks ago vs Maryland.
* They commonly have eight to 10 different players catching passes in a game.
* Four sacks vs Duke “guys (wide receivers) weren’t winning one-on-ones and Clayton had to hold it too long.”
* Lots of sit-down type of routes, especially vs zone. Possession routes. On third down, they almost always have a mesh choice (criss-cross shallow with the rub).
WR 88 BENNETT SKOWRONEK (6-4, 218, Soph., Fort Wayne Homestead)
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 15 in Indiana.
* Was a summer commitment over offers from Boston College, Indiana, Iowa, Purdue, NC State.
* Top among team WRs with 25 catches and 344 yards (49 yards receiving per game).
* Caught short hitch to the wide side of the field in 3Q last week for a gain of 5.
+ Gain of 18 on fake option pitch, drop back, looking deep, checked down to 88 in cover-two hole.
* Last week, 4 catches, 40 yards.
WR 15 MACAN WILSON (6-0, 185, Sr., Houston)
* Was a 5.5 three-star recruit, unranked in Texas by rivals.
* Summer commitment had offers from Cal, Tulsa, New Mexico.
* Didn’t do much for three years but has emerged as team leader in receptions and receiving yards.
* Quick route runner, gets up to speed quickly, speed through his cuts, sharp cuts.
- Dropped a 6-yard hitch on fourth-and-five at the Iowa 28-yard line with 5:30 left. (Wilson was flagged for offensive pass interference anyway).
* Team-high 5 catches last week for 47 yards.
* Team-high 74 yards receiving vs Maryland, on 5 catches with a long of 32.
WR 2 FLYNN NAGEL (5-11, 194, JR., Lemont, Ill.)
* 5.7 three-star recruit, No. 7 in Illinois.
* Signing day commitment, over Duke, Boston College, Illinois, Indiana. No other official visits.
* Is trying to fill the void left by Austin Carr’s graduation.
* Fitzgerald said prior to last week they want to get more out of him.
+ Gain of 9 on option route last week, cutting inside depending on the LB’s leverage.
+ Another 10-yard gain on short possession route, at slot LB, head and shoulder release to the inside.
+ Gain of 8 on crossing route mesh concept to convert fourth-and-two late in the third quarter last week.
+ Good hands up high on a 15 yard hook vs Maryland.
+ TD catch 14 yards on a mesh shallow crosser, right on target by Thorson for run after the catch yardage.
* 4 catches, 48 yards vs Maryland.
* Team-high 5 catches for 52 yards against Wisconsin.
WR 5 CHARLIE FESSLER (6-3, 210, Soph, Erie, Pa., Cathedral Prep)
* Was a 5.5 three-star, No. 26 in Pennsylvania.
* Summer commitment over MACs and Ivys.
+ 30-yard gain on a skinny post vs Maryland.
WR 19 RILEY LEES (6-0, 193, R-Fr., Libertyville, Ill.)
* Was targeted on fourth-and-7 in the 2H last week, well-covered, INC.
* three catches, 39 yards vs Maryland.
+ Shallow crosser on third-and-nine vs man-to-man for about 15 yards.
* None of these guys are spectacular, but it wouldn’t be a shock if one of them emerged as an Austin Carr type of go-to guy at some point in their career.
TIGHT ENDS: NOT GAME-BREAKERS
* Tight end blocking is average, and that’s a good thing for opponents because NU tries to run behind these tight ends a lot on outside zones.
TE * GARRETT DICKERSON (6-3, 248, Sr., Englewood, NJ)
* He plays the “super back” position, which is a glorified H back.
= INC went deep for him on deep skinny post on third and medium vs Maryland on opening drive.
* Went down with what appeared to be an arm or wrist injury last week. I haven’t heard any injury news on him.
* Not as quick afoot as past NU “super backs.”
(TE 84 CAMERON GREEN (6-3, 230, Soph., Buffalo Grove, Ill.)
* Team-high six catches vs Maryland for 49 yards. * Decent block and got away with a hold on the perimete ron 6 yard TD option pitch.
OFFENSIVE LINE: NOT SO GOOD
Fitzgerald on the o-line: “The rotation is not nailed down. There is a handful of those guys that are play-to-play, day-to-day. We’re not consistent enough. We’re improved from where we were a month ago but we need to be and should be a lot better and expect that we will be if we keep working.”
Ranked No. 78, No. 117 in sacks allowed in 2015 and 2016. This year, more of the same, ranking No. 115 in sacks allowed.
* Many sacks are coverage sacks, with Thorson holding it too long.
* The Wildcasts are kind of an enigma of a passing attack. They specialize in springing receivers open in the short areas, over and over and over. Yet they snap the ball so many times that they also run into coverage sacks and coverage pressures, due partly to sheer volume of reps and volume of chances for things to go wrong. Add the fact that Thorson WILL hold the ball too long, after a succession of short, quick-release passes, and it’s truly enigmatic.
So are they are a great route-running/possession pass attack, or a passing attack with shaky pass protection and a QB who holds the ball too long? Is it possible to be both? Apparently so, and NU is it.
But if you are a little bit shaky in your coverage, he will rip you better than most.
* Rotated a lot of o-linemen vs Duke, Fitzgerald said, because guys weren’t playing well and had to get pulled. O-line has played better in the weeks since then but it’s not a great unit.
* Allowed 8 sacks vs Wisconsin.
* Several of their guys have trouble vs a straight, stiff bull rush. Have to wonder about their strength program and/or recruiting evaluation or player development. Too much of one problem that across the board on this o-line.
So what does that mean for Michigan State? Demetrius Cooper is a decent edge rusher but isn’t bad with the bull rush. He might be able to get something out of the bull this week. Jacub Panasiuk is young at d-end, but he has mature power. He might make some hay against these offensive tackles.
I didn’t get a chance to see how well they communicate and filter out blitzes.
LT/RT 70 RASHAWN SLATER (6-3, 289, Fr., Sugar Land Texas)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, No. 36 OG in the country.
* Committed a week before signing day, no other official visits, over offers from Illinois, Kansas, Rice, Wyoming.
* Does not respond well to counter moves to the inside. Moves okay to the outside, can’t change back inside vs counters to the inside.
* Below average
* I’m not sure who is the LT and who is the RT. I saw them play both last week.
LG 59 JB BUTLER (6-3, 305, Jr., Plainfield, Ill/Joliet Catholic)
* No opinion.
* 5.4 two-star recruit.
* Former walk-on. Had offers from Western Illinois, Colgate, Maine, New Hampshire and the like.
C 69 BRAD NORTH (6-2, 290, Sr., Allen, Texas)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, No. 9 center in the country.
* Summer commitment over offers from Houston, San Diego State, Washington State, Wake Forest and Mountain West types.
* Athletic when he pulls, athletic to get down and cut. Travis Jackson type.
* Is unique with the way they use him as a pull blocker. He doesn’t pull and fold around down blocking guards and tackles, doesn’t pull wide to the perimeter. Usually pulls and folds over one guard and takes the b-gap. That’s kind of unique, but I wouldn’t think it’s a terribly difficult thing for LBs to filter to through a changing gap. But he’ll fill the b-cap and cut block the pursuing LBs.
- Called for holding, negating a third-and-long completion to Flynn in 2Q vs Maryland. Maryland DT dipped a shoulder, shot a gap and kept coming, and North eventually hauled him down.
71 RG TOMMY DOLES (6-4, 292, Jr., Grand Rapids Christian)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 19 in Michigan.
* Summer commitment over offers from Iowa State, Army, Air Force and apparently Michigan.
+ Pull front side, good cut block vs MLB on short side/strong side sweep for gain of 8 in 4Q last week.
- Mediocre in pass pro vs a stiff bull rush.
+ Looked good on a pull and fold around RT on an outside zone play vs Maryland but tight end 44 didn’t finish his block and Jackson gained only 1 yard.
RT/LT 72 BLAKE HANCE (6-5, 300, Jr., Jacksonville, Ill.)
- Does not withstand a good hard bull collision well. Staggers and stammers a bit.
NORTHWESTERN DEFENSE
* Held Iowa to 89 yards rushing last week and 2.7 per carry.
* Iowa’s Akrum Wadley had 90 yards on 26 carries (3.5 per).
* PSU’s Saquon Barkley rushed for 75 yards on 16 carries (gained 97, but lost 22 somehow).
* Held PSU to 95 yards rushing (5 sacks cost PSU 39 yards, otherwise PSU rushed for 134.
* Wisconsin’s superbad Jonathan Taylor had 80 yards on 19 attempts (4.2).
* Wisconsin netted 109 yards rush (2.9 per).
* NU has held four straight opponents to 110 yards rushing or fewer - including Wisconsin and Penn State. So why should we expect Michigan State to rush for more than 110? Well, I don’t have a good reason why we should.
* Barkley got loose for a 50-yard run, other than that, NU totally held him in check. But that was at a time when PSU’s o-line was having trouble against everybody. The defensive performance against Wisconsin is more impressive.
* NU really contained PSU’s offense until MLB Paddy Fisher was ejected for targeting.
Rushing yardage for recent opponents:
* Iowa 89 yards (2.7 per)
* Maryland 85 (2.7 per)
* Penn State 95 (2.5 per)
* Wisconsin 109 (2.9 per).
* PSU’s Trace McSorley was 25 of 34 for 245 with 1 TD.
* Wisconsin’s A Hornibrook was 11 of 20 for 197 with 1 TD and 2 INTs.
DEFENSIVE LINE
* Northwestern has often been underrated on the d-line under Fitzgerald. And they are again. This is a quality d-line, probably better than Iowa’s.
DE 97 SAM GAZIANO (6-4, 280, Soph., Scituate, Mass.)
* Was ranked No. 1 in Massachusetts, a 5.7 three-star.
* Two-time Boston Catholic League player of the year.
* No. 25 strongside DE in the nation by rivals.
* Was a spring commitment with offers from Boston College and Rutgers.
* 5 sacks on the year, ranks No. 3 in the Big Ten.
* Last year, he beat Miguel Machado for a safety in the Michigan State game.
* He is a plus player He’s a load. Good combination of pass rush and playing the run in this guy, and loves to take on and win collisions.
* Doesn’t look great to the eye test standing still or walking around, but he can bend and turn the corner. And at the point of attack, he can get low and win a collision.
* Decent in the box, taking on blocks with clever rip move.
* He solely plays boundary DE. So he’ll go against Chewins and Campell. He’s good and will have his moments but I don’t think Gaziano will dominate. He is capable of having loud games against a lot of teams, but Michigan State has a good chance to contain him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a sack, but I don’t think he will be an every-down terror against Chewins and Campbell.
+ Took on wham-blocking h-back on a split zone and bashed the hell out of the wham blocker, kept his feet, didn’t lose stride and transitioned to the QB, and ran the hoop to chase the escaping QB. That was an NFL play.
+ Two sacks last week, including one on first-and-10 on last play of 3Q, beating Iowa’s Alaric Jackson cleanly with a rip move.
* Had a sack vs PSU.
* Had 4.5 sacks last year as a reserve redshirt freshman.
* Was NU defensive player of the week after last year’s victory over Michigan State.
DE 91 SAM MILLER (6-3, 261, Fr., Houston, Texas)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 99 in Texas, No. 31 strongside DE.
* Committed one week before signing day over offers from Indiana, Colorado State, Texas Tech. No other official visits.
* Maryland ran outside zone to his side a few times, won his outside shoulder, got him hooked.
+ Quick hands, quick feet as a DT in the pass rush. Not sure about the next gears but quick in a phone booth.
+ Stunted inside for a sack on third-and-six vs Maryland in the second quarter.
DT 1 TYLER LANCASTER (6-4, 315, Sr., Romeoville, Ill./Plainfield East High)
* Was a 5.7 three-star recruit, ranked No. 16 in Illinois, No. 6 center.
* Summer commitment over MAC offers.
* Good player.
* Voted by teammates to wear the prestigious No. 1.
* Good athlete who broad jumps 9’7” at 315 pounds.
* Three-year starter.
* He’s a horse, and a big reason why NU is difficult to run against.
+ Good vs double-teams.
DT 99 JORDAN THOMPSON (6-3, 290, Jr., Cincinnati La Salle)
* Is a watered-down Raequan Williams. Even wears his number. Not bad. Not great.
* Was a 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 30 in Ohio, No. 35 strongside DE.
* Spring commitment apparently also had offers from Duke, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisville, Michigan State, Notre Dame.
(DT 75 BEN OXLEY, 6-6, 286, Jr., Avon Lake, Ohio)
- Beaten on a critical play with 2:25 left last week, allowing Iowa into field goal range when he gave up a yard of movement vs a double team AND got carved out of his gap. Iowa RB Wadley ran through that vacant gap for a gain of 9 to the 26-yard line.
+ he was better on the very next play, getting a yard of penetration vs Iowa’s overrated All-Big Ten center. No gain. Iowa settled for game-tying field goal with 1:30 left.
LINEBACKERS: GOOD TRIO
“Those linebackers have fit well,” Fitzgerald said when asked about NU’s success on run defense. “When the d-line has maybe gotten reach or maybe gotten out of a gap, our linebackers have made them right. For the most part, we have tackled pretty well for the last month, but that’s going to continue to be a challenge, especially here against the Spartans.”
MLB 42 PADDY FISHER (6-4, 245, R-Fr., Katy, Texas)
* Was a 5.5 three-star recruit, unranked in Texas.
* Was a summer commitment over offers from Baylor, Boston College, Houston, Indiana, Maryland, Kansas, Washington, Wisconsin.
* His name sounds more like a 19th-century bare knuckles champion, but he can play this game.
* Quality player. Is going to be All-Big Ten some day. He’ll get votes this year.
++ Major, big time play on third-and-1 with 1:45 left last week, taking on LG, hit and shed and made tackle, for no gain, forcing game-tying field goal when Iowa was trying to drive for a game-winning TD.
10 BRETT WALSH (6-1, 220, Sr., Monrovia, Calif.)
* Was a 5.5 three-star recruit, unranked.
* Summer commitment over Fresno State, Nevada, UNLV.
+ Short strider who accelerates pretty quickly.
* Stubby hustler. Good pursue, scrape and TFL on Wadley outside zone last week for TFL in the 3q.
32 Sam LB NATE HALL (6-2, 230, Jr., Toledo Southview)
* 5.4 two-star recruit, unranked.
* Summer commitment over offers from Pitt and MAC schools.
* Leads NU and ranks tied for third in the B1G for both tackles for loss (8.5)
+ Plus player. Accelerates well.
* Smart in reading your primary receivers when dropping into LB zone coverage, then accelerates to clean things up.
+ Broke up an angle route to the RB on fourth down last week on Iowa’s opening drive, read the route like he knew what the RB was going to do.
* Plays on line of scrimmage over the TE when they go with their under front. Plays in the slot against 3WR sets.
* Hurt his wrist last week in the third quarter.
* Team’s second-leading tackler.
* Five third-down tackles and a fourth-down tackle last week.
* Had a sack vs PSU.
(51 Blake Gallagher, 6-1, 221, Fr., Raynham, Mass.)
* Going to be a standout. Quick, physical. Smaller Jon Reschke type.)
DEFENSIVE BACKS: TAKE THE LID OFF?
* All four of their starters on defense were tested deep in the last two games. I’m not sure any of them looked great at it.
* Allowed Iowa to complete 19 of 33 for 223 last week with 1 TD and 1 INT.
* Allowed Maryland to go 17 of 38 for 255 (3 TDs, 0 INTs) with a third-string QB.
* Penn State’s Trace McSorley completed 73 pct of his passes (25 of 34) for 245 yards.
* They show press man on third down. OCCASIONALLY they drop into zone after showing press man on third down. Did that vs Iowa on a third-and-six in the third quarter last week and Iowa botched it up, dropped a pass, punted.
* Allowed 50-plus yard TD to Maryland’s outstanding WR D.J. Moore on a tunnel screen. NU missed some tackles on the play, but Moore is special.
* Vs Iowa, on third-and-9 with 4:47 left, leading 10-7, NU’s zone coverage allowed a 12-yard sit-down route to the TE. That was the first-play of a game-tying drive in the final minutes. Big play in eventually leading to a field goal, a tie game and overtime.
* In overtime vs Iowa, coverage allowed an open TE on fourth down, but he dropped it.
24 CB MONTRE HARTAGE (6-0, 195, Jr., Cordele Ga.)
* Was a 5.4 two-star recruit, unranked.
* Committed on signing day. Also visited Middle Tennessee State. Also had an offer from Army.
* Suspect in pass defense. Iowa attacked him on third-and-14 with a simple release move and go route. The release move left 24 flat-footed. QB missed the WR, open by a yard.
* Heavy hitter for a CB. Plays CB like a linebacker. That’s good and bad.
* Good in run defense, extending long, strong arms to control WR blocking when playing the run.
+ Stayed home nicely to mess up a reverse, and finished with a physical sweep tackle.
+ Physical jam on WR, caused WR to saw off his route, WR threw to the cover-two hole and WR wasn’t there. Resulted in 4 intercepting the pass like it was a punt.
* Physical sweep tackle sent standout Maryland WR DJ Moore to the bench limping.
CB 12 ALONZO MAYO (5-11, 188, Soph., Baltimore)
* a 5.4 two-star recruit, unranked in Maryland.
* October commitment, no other official visits, over Ivys.
- Iowa attacked him in press coverage on the first third-down of the game for about 27 yards on a deep fade. [Yes, Iowa attempted to go deep a couple of times.]
* Suspect vs deep shots.
DB 16 GODWIN IGWEBUIKE (6-0, 212, Sr., Pickerington, Ohio)
* Was a 5.7 three-star recruit, No. 28 in Ohio, No. 39 athlete.
* August commitment over offers from Duke, Boston College, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Pitt, Wisconsin.
* This guy has a good reputation but I’ll see him do something smart and quick one play, then slow the next. Inconsistent in my book.
- Looked like he had sub-standard speed to me. Looked slow in pursuing outside zone from the back side last week. But he has a good reputation.
+ Then he looked smart, quick acceleration to cover the short area in zone, knowing where you like to go with the ball.
* Was late to react to the TE on an Iowa TD pass last week, from about 7 yards out. Iowa sprang three receivers quickly on sit-down routes, two TEs and a fullback. At pre-snap, they didn’t look like they had three receivers to that side, but they sprang ‘em on you and they fooled NU three times with it (including the dropped pass in OT).
S 21 KYLE QUEIRO (6-3, 220, Sr., Verona, NJ)
* Was a 5.7 three-star recruit, ranked No. 17 in New Jersey.
* Summer commitment, no other visits.
* Also had offers from Colorado, Duke, Illinois, North Carolina, Illinois, NC State.
* Good run-sniffing safety.
= Maryland tested him deep with a play action deep seam. Ball was late and inaccurate but 21 did a pretty good job of getting up and batting it down. Beefy safety.
* Biggest safety in the Big Ten? Might be.
* In nickel, he presses the inside WR if you go trips. And he will hold. Will the officials call it? At his size, it’s hard to get off of him if he grabs you.
DB 7 MARCUS McSHEPARD (5-11, 200, Sr., University Heights, Ohio/Cleveland Heights)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 49 in Ohio.
* December commitment over offers from Illinois, MAC schools and an apparent offer from Penn State.
8 Beaten deep in first quarter vs Maryland but QB underthrew him.
* Carries too much weight to be a DB.
SPECIAL TEAMS
* The kicker is 7 of 8 this year including two from 40-plus yards, including a 48-yarder.
NU elected to go for it on fourth-and-7 last week in a tie game late in the 3Q rather than attempt a 49-yard field goal in windy conditions.
* The punter is fourth in the Big Ten at 43.5 per attempt.
ADD IT ALL UP
* NU’s pass defense can be smart and tricky in the short area but I’m not sure they are great on intermediate routes, or deep seams or deep go routes. Michigan State hasn’t made a living on deep shots this year, or past years, but this might be the game that two or three of that ilk make the difference - and it might NEED to be the area of difference.
Michigan State went with play-action passes on the first play of drives on six of its last seven possessions last week. I think Michigan State might need to get into that business more often and more aggressively in this game because if Michigan State continues to try to establish the run in this game, they could get into trouble because NU has more ability to score than Iowa, Michigan or Indiana - three foes the Spartans have beaten with a rope-a-dope approach in recent weeks.
In the trenches, this game is pretty even. At QB, give the edge to Northwestern with more proven ability there, but Thorson has also been more mistake-prone than Lewerke and more prone to the sack. Lewerke has the capacity to elevate his game and match or exceed Thorson in this game. Lewerke will be passing against a weaker pass defense than the one Thorson will see.
Run game: If either team has success on the ground, that’s the team most likely to win. It will be tough sledding for either team.
In the end, it’s similar to the Michigan State vs Iowa forecast, with Michigan State having more talent at WR. But the edge isn’t as pronounced as it was in the Iowa game. NU has some solid wide receivers too, but they aren’t the explosive type. NU’s ball control passing attack, with suspect pass protection, against the Michigan State defense SHOULD curtail NU’s usual offensive output.
In the end, you have to like Dantonio’s win rate as a ranked team vs an unranked opponent. There is relevance to that stat and relevance to Michigan State’s ability to handle its business in games such as this under Dantonio.
But if NU wins this game, NU has a chance to finish the season with a seven-game win streak. And if NU wins this game, NU might be more likely than Michigan State to finish the season in the Top 25.
So Michigan State is the ranked team and NU is the unranked opponent THIS WEEK. Those descriptions could flip-flop by Thanksgiving.
But for now, for this week, Dantonio has a good record of handling this type of task. Now Lewerke needs to show he can do what Cousins and Cook used to do. And the pass defense needs to prove it’s all that against this ball control pass attack.
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