Part 1 is here:
https://michiganstate.forums.rivals.com/threads/pre-snap-read-part-1.192348/
HOW ILLINOIS BEAT WISCONSIN (Briefly)
This was no fluke. Illinois didn’t hang around, get some breaks and steal it at the end.
Illinois traded punches with Wisconsin all day. Sure, Wisconsin was looking ahead to Ohio State and slumbering. But Illinois played good football on both sides of the ball, all day.
How it went down:
* UW scored a TD on their first possession, scoring on an 18-yard TD to the TE on a skinny post vs cover-four zone.
* Illinois scored on a quick-strike, long TD pass to make it 13-7 before halftime (Wisconsin safety missed a tackle on an RPO).
* Illinois stiffened in the red zone, forced a field goal. Then forced another field goal attempt in the 3Q, which missed, and the game remained 20-7.
* Wisconsin was fortunate that it was 20-7 at that point. Illinois had fumbled on its own 20-yard line, which Wisconsin punched in for the 20-7 lead. Meanwhile, Illinois had a 75-yard TD pass called back due to an illegal man downfield penalty. The game was real close to being Illinois 14, Wisconsin 13 late in the 3Q instead of 20-7. Wisconsin was in more trouble that the score indicated at the time.
* Illinois cut it to 20-14 on a 42-yard TD run by RB Corbin late in the 3Q. That play was preceded by a nice 16-yard gain by QB Brandon Peters on a well-designed QB counter sweep. A couple of plays earlier, Illinois had a WR wide open on a post but Peters missed him. Illinois was landing blows on the Wisconsin defense.
* Wisconsin had a first-and-goal at the 3-yard line, up by 6, with 12:00 to go and Illinois kept them out of the end zone. Wisconsin’s big bad ground game gained 1, 1 and 0 yards on three straight run plays inside the 3.
Then Paul Chryst elected to kick a field goal rather than go for it on fourth-and-goal at the 1. That tells you the respect he had for Illinois’ defensive front. That put UW up by two scores, 23-14, with 10:45 to play, but it was another victory for the Illini, and further proof that this d-line can hold firm.
* Later, Wisconsins’ Jonathan Taylor fumbled at the Illinois 25-yard line with the Badgers up by 9 with 7:11 to go. Critical turnover, with LB Jake Hansen arriving in the pile late and prying it loose.
* Peterson then found the big WR, Josh Imatorbhebhe, for a 29-yard TD pass. A pair of chunk runs by RB Brown and RB Corbin set it up. That drive was no joke, cutting it to 23-21 with 5:50 left.
* Then Wisconsin threw an INT into a dropping, baiting cover-two CB. Then after a couple of intermediate throws by Peterson, Illinois kicked the game-winning field goal from 39 yards.
* When they beat Wisconsin it snapped an 0-24 streak against ranked teams and was Illinois’ first win against a Top 10 team since 2007.
ILLINOIS’ RICHROD OFFENSE
* Illinois offensive coordinator Rod Smith is a Rich Rodriguez guy. He coached for RichRod at West Virginia for one year, at Michigan for three as QBs coach, and at Arizona from 2012-17.
* They are a spread-to-run operation with a four-star pocket-passing QB like Brandon Peters, a Michigan transfer. The stuff looks a lot like RichRod’s first Michigan team with Steven Threet at QB. Peters isn’t perfect for this operation, but he will keep it three or four times a game for good gains.
* They go with pistol more so than RichRod did.
They go tempo. They go inside zone, outside zone. And they run some good counter stuff. And counters within RPO.
Most RPO teams run RPOs with zone blocking. Illinois will do some counter blocking inside with the bubble screen pass game on the outside, a little more sophisticated than most.
UNIQUE ASPECT:
* Illinois will occasionally have the RB do a short shift in shot gun from left RB to right RB, or vice-versa. This changes the strength of the formation slightly but alters some of the assignments of the defense. They do it an instant before the snap. Sometimes as part of an RPO.
Urban Meyer explains why this is problematic for a defense, in addition to the counter run RPO I mentioned earlier:
THE KEY: Stop the run.
That sounds simple. And usually that means stop the inside zone, when talking about a tempo, spread-to-run, zone read team.
But these guys run the outside zone as well as they run the inside zone. If you load up too much inside, they can hit you outside - not with the speed of an Ohio State or even a Wisconsin, but they can hit you out there.
So stopping the run means stopping both, which isn’t easy against Illinois. Their ground game is good.
LAST WEEK: Illinois 38, Rutgers 10
* Rutgers controlled the 2Q last week against Illinois to create a 10-10 tie at halftime.
* Illinois took control with a 54-yard zone read keeper run by QB Peters to the 2-yard line (setting up a TD, 17-10), followed almost immediately by a 35-yard fumble return for a TD (24-10), and then a 52-yard TD strike to WR Imatorbhebhe (31-10.
Illinois dominated the third quarter.
ILLINOIS DEFENSE: GOOD COACHING
* Illinois is a base cover-two zone team.
Sometimes they will show press at pre-snap against as many as three WRs, and the LBs will be compressed up at the line of scrimmage showing blitz, and Illinois will have a single safety deep.
Then at the snap, the linebacker drops into one coverage and the CBs bail into bump cover-two.
They did this for a pick-six against Rutgers, with the MLB dropping into short-area zone, intercepts the slant, returns it for a TD.
* Same look against Wisconsin, they showed press on all three WRs, then dropped into cover-two zone and got a coverage sack.
I’m sure other teams have done this look in college football, but in studying hundreds of college games over the last 20 years, I can’t recall seeing it a team go from all-out press across the board, and LBs up at the line of scrimmage, and be able to drop back into cover-two.
They’ve fooled some people with it recently. It’s on film. Michigan State can anticipate cover-two out of that look. Now will Illinois go ahead and blitz more in this game as a means of breaking tendency?
Illinois is not at all a blitz-heavy team. At least they haven’t been over the last four games. If they blitz more in this game, you’ll know it’s a tendency-breaker.
THE MICRO:
ILLINOIS PERSONNEL
OFFENSE
QB 18 BRANDON PETERS (6-5, 220, Jr., Avon, Ind.)
* Four-star QB, ranked No. 158 in the nation, No. 6 Pro Style QB, No. 3 in Indiana, signed with Michigan, transferred to Illinois.
* This week will be his 13th career start.
* Completing 55 pct of his passes, averaging 139 yards passing per game. 13 TDs, 4 INTs.
* Strong arm, decent touch deep down the sideline, not great touch on intermediate stuff over the middle. Doesn’t move well in the pocket, doesn’t elongate plays with his legs.
* Averaged 19 yards a completion vs Wisconsin.
* He is good with the deep ball down the sideline, good with the deep fade to tall WR No. 9.
* Has had some decent gains on zone reads and counter reads. But he doesn’t move well in the pocket, doesn’t feel the rush, doesn’t escape to elongate plays.
* Was knocked out of the Minnesota game with a concussion and didn’t play against Michigan.
* They were concerned about Wisconsin’s pass rush so they sprinted him out on a third-down situation, but he threw late and almost had it intercepted. That’s why they rarely ask him to throw on the run.
* Isn’t as good with the deep ball to the post (missed a wide open Imatorbhebhe) for a sure TD in the 3Q vs Wisconsin. [But Illinois scored three plays later anyway on a long TD run by RB Corbin].
- Missed WR Navarro on a shallow cross on third down to end the opening drive last week.
+ Decent deep touch pass on 3-7 in 1Q last week to Navarro, maybe underthrown by a half yard. Good catch by Navarro on a 50-50 ball. Navarro had him beat by 2 steps, throw was a little under thrown.
+ Good deep ball: Third-and-7 touchdown strike from the left hash to the right numbers to big No. 9. Good arm, good accuracy.
+ zone read keeper caught Rutgers in single safety, man to man, gained 54 yards. OLB took the pitch man, Peters kept it, made the single safety miss and sprinted to the 3-yard line.
- Not accurate on swing passes. Illinois threw some bubbles vs Michigan when they had to use their back-up QB but I haven’t seen many bubble screens from Peters.
++ RPO slant to Navarro for a 48-yard TD pass play vs Wisconsin after the Badger safety missed a tackle. Good read and good zip on the slant by Peters.
++ Beautiful deep ball for TD to big No. 9, Imatorbhebhe, for an apparent 73-yard TD vs Badger press coverage off a play action deep slant-and-go but it was called back due to ineligible player downfield as part of the RPO. But that’s what happens when you run a double-move while o-line is run blocking, the center zone-blocked downfield too far.
+ After beginning the 2H 1-for-6 against Wisconsin, he delivered a nice strike to TE Barker on a skinny post for a gain of 21. Barker lined up as the middle receiver in a trips formation and ran a good route and Peters threw a hard strike.
+ Zipped a 29-yard strike to big No. 9, Imatorbhebe, to cut Wisconsin’s lead to 23-21 in the fourth quarter.
+ Rifled a 12-yard pass to TE Barker on third-and-six during game-winning drive vs Wisconsin. UW was in off coverage and Barker had a free release from the slot.
(QB 12 Matt Robinson, 6-1, 190, San Juan Capistrano, Calif.)
* Was a 5.4 two-star recruit. Had offers from mid-majors.
* Has played in six games. Completing 56 pct of his passes for a total of 348 yards.
* He was 16 of 25 for 192 yards vs Michigan with 1 TD and 0 INTs.
* He kind of scampers around and makes some harried throws. They threw more bubbles and tunnels against Michigan than they do with Peters.
ILLINOIS’ GROUND GAME
Illinois has rushed for 204 yards (4.6 per carry vs Rutgers), 242 yards in the rain vs Purdue (4.6 per) and 141 against Wisconsin (4.0 per).
That’s pretty good, consistent run game production.
In Big Ten games, Illinois ranks No. 5 in the conference in rushing offense at 160.5 yards per game.
MSU’s rush defense ego has been battered through the October gauntlet. Now, can they recharge and resurge? I know they CAN. But do they still have the will? Vegas seems to think so.
They’ll need it because Illinois’ rushing attack is good. Not great. But it’s good. They will likely get their 140 or more against Michigan State.
They rotate three capable RBs. Corbin is the most explosive. Dre Brown can get north too.
RB 2 REGGIE CORBIN (5-10, 200, Sr., Upper Marlboro, Md./Washington DC Gonzaga)
* Was a two-star recruit, ranked No. 11 in D.C.
* Offers from Washington State, Toledo.
* 618 yards rushing, averaging 72 yards rushing per game and 5.3 per attempt.
* Will reverse his field and go the other way on a zone, try to bounce it outside.
- Not good in pass protection.
+ Quick, shifty little guy. Like a watered-down JK Dobbins.
+ 25-yard run on the second play of the game vs Wisconsin, an inside-zone. He made LB Orr miss in space with a shake-and-bake lateral step. Nice run. Michigan State didn’t have a run that long all day against UW.
+ 42 yard TD run against Wisconsin on an inside zone, good acceleration behind excellent blocking.
25 RB Dre Brown (5-11, 210, Sr., DeKalb, Ill.)
* 5.7 three-star recruit ranked No. 8 in Illinois. Had offers from Indiana and Oregon State.
* 442 yards on the year, 6.0 per carry, 49.1 yards per game.
* Has had injury problems in the past but is doing well this year. He missed his first two years due to injuries, then played six games in 2017 and seven games last year but is coming on this year.
* Had a career-high rushing by halftime of the Purdue game with 112, and finished with 131 on a career-high 18 carries.
+ 10 yard TD last week on an outside zone. Decent cut, not a great one, on that play and pretty good vision, cutting behind over pursuit and making a safety miss.
* 2-yard TD run on first-and-goal out of the Wildcat against Rutgers in a tight-formation Wildcat with tight splits, outside zone right.
* 11 rushes for 70 yards against Wisconsin.
* Slashing runner.
+ Gained 20 and 25 on consecutive plays vs Purdue in the 2Q, getting good blocking on a counter and an outside zone.
+ Had a great, quick 15 yard run on an outside zone to get into field goal range at the end of the Wisconsin game, getting 6 yards after contact, breaking two tackles for the final 5 yards.
21 RB Ra’Von Bonner (5-11, 215, Jr., Cincinnati)
* 5.5 three-star recruit, ranked No. 49 in Ohio.
* Offers from Iowa and MACs.
* Downhill runner.
* 188 yards on the year, 3.7 per. Three TDs. Good short-yardage guy.
* Gains of 6 and 8 on an inside zone and an outside zone vs Purdue early in the 2Q.
* Had a TD in each of the first three games.
WIDE RECEIVERS: One Mismatch Guy & Support
WR 9 JOSH IMATORBHEBHE (6-2, 215, Jr., Suwanee, Ga.)
* Four-star recruit, No. 217 in the nation, signed with USC.
* Grad transfer arrived with two years of eligibility.
* Had two catches in three years at USC, including a redshirt yeear.
* Leads Illinois with 25 catches, seven TDs.
* Has been hampered by some drops this year but makes up for it with excellent plays down the field, especially down the sideline on fades and deep go routes.
- Couldn’t finish a well-thrown 15-yard fade/jumpball in the end zone last week. Extended his hands nice and high, he’s a big target, but didn’t finish that catch.
+ 52-yard TD on a deep go route vs press last week to give Illinois a 31-10 lead.
* With the way Michigan State presses, you will see him go jumpball against Josiah Scott, or whomever, at least twice on Sturday.
+ Dominated his matchup with UW cornerback Burton. Drew a holding penalty on him on a deep go route in the 2Q.
* He fumbled at the Illinois 21-yard line in the 3Q, setting up a 20-7 lead for the Badgers.
WR 4 RICKEY SMALLING (6-1, 205, Jr., Chicago)
* Four-star recruit, No. 6 in Illinois.
* Out the past two weeks with what looked like a serious ankle injury against Wisconsin. He is expected to be out for this game.
* He is their second-leading receiver with 24 catches. Was their leader prior to the injury.
WR 6 Dominic Stampley (5-10, 180, Jr., Champaign, Ill./Coffeyville CC)
* Former walk-on.
* Carried on an end around last week for no gain.
+ 15 yard catch on an RPO against Wisconsin, making the CB miss in space.
* 9 catches on the year.
WR 86 Donny Navarro (5-11, 185, Soph., Naperville, Ill.)
* Valparaiso transfer, awarded a scholarship this week.
* 11 catches on the season.
+ 16 yard catch vs Purdue on a slot curl.
++ RPO slant to Navarro for a 48-yard TD pass play after the Badger safety missed a tackle. Good read and good zip on the slant by Peters.
TE 87 Daniel Barker (6-4, 250, Soph. Fort Lauderdale).
* 5.5 three-star recruit.
* Offers from Pitt, CFU, App State, UAB.
- Dropped consecutive passes against Wisconsin in the 2Q.
* Ranks fourth on the team in catches with 12, including a 52-yard TD.
* Solid blocker.
TE 81 Griffin Palmer (6-5, 245, Jr., St. Charles, Mo.)
* Two-star recruit with offers from ISU and mid-majors.
- Below average point of attack blocker.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Not Bad, Getting Better
* Pass protection has been below average, but run blocking is good, varied and improving.
* On outside zones, they’ll cut-block you (take your feet out) on the back side. That gets on your nerves.
* The center is experienced and good. Right guard is good. Those two work well together and get guys out to the LB well on zone plays.
* Good quickness on their counters. They don’t run a lot of counters, but when they do, they’re quick and they catch you.
LT 79 VEDERIAN LOWE (6-6, 320, Jr., Rockford, Ill.)
* 5.6 three-star recruit. No. 16 in Illinois.
* Early Illinois commitment, no other offers.
* Kind of slow when he pulls.
* Left the game with a right arm injury last week, came back in with a brace on the arm.
- Not real firm on outside zones runs.
* Below average in pass pro. Looks like a MAC-level LT in pass pro.
+ Good run block vs UW’s DE 93, getting low, putting him on skates, 13 yard gain by Corbin in the 1Q. Very good double team by LG/C with the LG 53 getting out to a LB.
++ Drove Michigan’s Aiden Hutchinson backward at point of attack on two-point conversion run in the 4Q.
LG 53 KENDRICK GREEN (6-4, 310, Soph., Peoria, Ill.)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, No. 14 in Illinois.
* Also visited Iowa, Illinois, UCF.
- Left side of the line allowed a sack on a LB inside stunt last week on third-and-medium in the 2Q.
* Good quickness as a pull guard on counters.
- Alloweed another sack on third-and-eight in the 2Q vs Rutgers when a stunt came from the opposite side and he didn’t identify it.
+ Real nice contact as a pull blocker on a counter for Tre Brown for a gain of 20 in the 2Q vs Purdue.
+ Good job getting out to the LB level on an outside zone for a 25-yard by Brown in the 2Q vs Purdue.
C 65 DOUG KRAMER (6-2, 300, Jr., Hinsdale, Ill.)
* Two-star recruit.
* Also visited FAU. Had offers from Army and MACs.
* Is the No. 1 graded center in the Power Five by PFF heading into this week.
* 24 straight starts.
* Michigan State has recruited well at Hinsdale, but probably passed on Kramer due to his height. Mistake.
+ Got out to LB level pretty decently on a 10-yard TD run by Brown on an outside zone last week.
+ Good job crossing the face of the Purdue NG and getting a seal on an outside zone for RB Dre Brown for a gain of 41.
+ Pried the Purdue NG out with a combo from LG 53 for a 6-yard run on an inside zone in the red zone in the 2Q vs Purdue.
RG 74 RICHIE PETITBON (6-4, 305, Sr., Annapolis, Md.)
* Four-star, No. 51 in the nation, No. 1 in DC.
* Signed with Alabama, came to Illinois this year as a grad transfer.
* Was a career back-up at Alabama. Is probably Illinois’ second best o-lineman now.
* Their best pull lineman, good job turning the corner and getting pad level low at point of attack a counter for a gain of 9 in the 1Q last week.
+ Decently physical with his double team block with the center in moving the Rutgers NG during an inside zone gainer in the 3Q vs Rutgers.
+ Good pull on a counter in the 1Q vs Purdue, turning the corner with agility to find the MLB and seal him inside.
++ Pancaked Wisconsin’s Loudermilk on an inside zone, helping RB Corbin blast up the middle for a 42-yard TD run to cut Wisconsin’s lead to 20-14 late in the 3Q.
RT 63 ALEX PALCZEWSKI (6-6, 300, Mount Prospect, Ill.)
* 2-star recruit. Offers from Syracuse and Vanderbilt.
* 32 straight starts.
* PFF first-team All-Big Ten last year.
- Missed a block vs DE on first play of game last week, inside zone gain of 1.
- Allowed a sack in the 1Q vs Purdue on a bull punch, push/pull.
DEFENSIVE LINE: Strength in Numbers
* Not real explosive on the d-line, but they have some able bodies, some big bellies and they have some depth. Michigan State
* Not much of a pass rush from the standard down four when No. 47 is a little banged up. Maybe they get some push off of stunts, but they don’t have great one-on-one pass rushers.
* They have some sturdy guys with good phone booth quickness who make good use of quick slants and spike moves. They don’t have explosive ransackers on the d-line, but you’re not going to steamroll them.
* They do more cross-face slants than most d-lines. They’re pretty good at it.
* I don’t know when I’ve taken more notes on defensive linemen than this year for Illinois. They have a slew of them.
DE 47 OLOWOLE BETIKU (6-3, 250, Jr., Lagos, Nigeria/Gardena, Calif.)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 11 in California, signed with USC, grad-transferred to Illinois).
* He missed last season with an injury at USC and was unhappy about lack of playing time and changing positions and roles.
* Missed the Purdue game two weeks ago.
* 8 sacks on the year.
+ Decent pressing of the pocket to bat a pass INC in the red zone last week.
+ Decent job on inside zone getting off RT to make tackle on third-and-four for gain of 3 in the 2Q last week.
- Not real firm at the point of attack vs the run, but can Michigan State do anyhting about it?
* Got this right ankle rolled up on vs Wisconsin. I didn’t see him when he was at his best earlier in the year. Not sure what his shape is for this week.
DT 55 JAMAL MILAN (6-3, 300, Sr., Chicago)
* 5.6 3-star, ranked No. 14 in Illinois
* Also visited Indiana, ISU, Minnesota.
* He camped at Michigan State and badly wanted an Michigan State offer but didn’t get it. That might be bad news for Michigan State this weekend.
* He is their best interior DT, is having an HM All-Big Ten type of season and is a demonstrative leader.
* 7 TFLs on they ear.
+ TFL last week in the 2q on a sack, on a twist with DT 96.
+ Sack vs Purdue on third-and-11. Not much of a pass rush move. The LG for Purdue wasn’t good. A little bit of a coverage sack.
* Milan has a reputation, according to Illinois alum and BTN analyst J Lehman, as being a plus pass rusher for a d-tackle.
* Emotional leader in the front seven. Has battled injuries earlier in his career but is having a good senior year.
* Lovie Smith says Milan has a future in the NFL.
+ Pretty good sideline to sideline speed for a DT, including a heavy tackle on the Purdue QB early in the 2Q.
DE 52 Ayo Shogbonyo (6-2, 240, Jr., Arlington, Texas)
* 2-star, offers from Air Force, Army, UTEP.
+ Quick inside slant for a TFL on the RB on the last play of the 1Q vs Purdue.
* Not terrible at POA on outside zone for UW.
* 1.5 sacks on the year, 8.5 TFLs.
DE 99 Owen Carney (6-3, 255, Jr., Miami)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 42 in Florida and No. 15 at weakside DE.
* Had offers from Cal, Duke, FSU, Kentucky, Miami, Maryland and several others.
+ Sack vs Purdue, converging from behind after a good, not great, outside move.
* 2 sacks on the year, 14 total tackles.
DT 96 TYMIR OLIVER (6-4, 290, Sr., Philadelphia)
* Two-star recruit, No. 34 in Pennsylvania.
* Offers from Pitt, UConn, Northwestern, BC, Rutgers.
* Second-year starter.
* Slowish.
* 21 tackles, 3.5 TFLs.
+ Good hit and disengage vs Badger LG to tackle Jonathan Taylor for no gain on third-and-goal counter at the 6-yard line, forcing a field goal and a 10-0 Badger lead early in the 2Q.
+ Should have been credited with a sack on a stunt vs UW in the 2Q for a fumble but it was ruled (barely) a pass.
DT 95 Kenyon Jackson (6-0, 290, Sr., Little Rock, Ark.)
* 2-star recruit, no other D-1 offers.
* 5 tackles on the year.
* Gerald Owens type.
* Decent head and shoulder quickness.
* Injured against Purdue, didn’t play against Rutgers.
+ Push and pull to get off LG and make TFL on RB Taylor to create 2-11 for Wisconsin with 3:14 to play.
DT 93 Calvin Avery (6-2, 330, Soph., Dallas)
* Four-star, ranked No. 170 in the nation and No. 17 in Texas.
* Offers from ASU, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Louisville, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, USC, A&M.
* Officially visited Rice.
* 5 tackles on the year.
* Firm vs double-teams vs Rutgers.
* Big-belly guy who doesn’t have great feet, but stands up to double-team blocking. Useful off the bench.
DT 91 Jamal Woods (6-2, 290, Soph., Hueytown, Ala.)
* 2-star recruit, officially visited Memphis and Kansas.
* 5.5 TFLs on the season.
+ Hero of a goal line stand against UW. He dominated the UW RG on the goal line stand. He uprooted the RG on third-and-goal at the 1 AND made the tackle, a terrific play.
* I didn’t notice this guy No. 91 in other games, but he looked excellent in this situation.
* One Lovie Smith move that I would disagree with: After a fumble in the 3Q vs UW, the Illini had second-string d-linemen Owen Carney and Jamal Woods on the field. That’s not who you want on the field in a sudden change red zone situation. They were both bowled over on two straight plays as Wisconsin gained 14 and 7 (TD).
DE 92 Isaiah Gay (6-3, 240, Jr., Nashville, NC)
* 2-star recruit. Had offers from East Carolina and Elon.
* 14 tackles on the year, 2 sacks.
* Looks and moves like a d-end. Not back for a back-up.
+ Some late pressure from him on third and 6 against Rutgers in the 2Q on a bull rush, not a great bull rush, Rutgers LT not very good.
+ Poked the ball loose from the QB on a scramble resulting in a fumble and 35-yard fumble return for CB Nate Hobbs last week.
+ Shows good lateral movement when left unblocked on the back side, low, slide shuffle like a basketball player, staying coiled with quickness, reading, correct with potential energy.
+ Good quick slant to get in QB Coan’s face for a hurried INC in the 3Q vs Wisconsin, drawing a holding penalty.
LINEBACKERS: Opportunistic
They hunt and shed and tackle pretty well behind a firm defensive line.
WLB 35 JAKE HANSEN (6-1, 225, Jr., Tarpon Springs, Fla.)
* 2-star recruit, had offers from ISU, Army, Navy, Air Force, mid-majors.
* Leads the country in forced fumbles with seven.
* 7.5 tackles for loss.
* Second-year starter.
* Forced a fumble vs Michigan RB, putting a helmet on the ball.
* Forced a fumble vs Wisconsin RB as the second man in, getting the strip.
+ Blitz, sack vs UW. He set a pick on the LT for a stunting D-end. Somehow the LT and RB were confused by it, for a strip and fumble.
- Stepped out of his gap and allowed a 17-yard run through his area on zone read give in the 2Q vs Rutgers.
MLB 9 DELE HARDING (6-1, 230, Sr., Elkton, Md.)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 20 in Maryland.
* Also visited Rutgers. Had offers from USC and Tennessee.
* First-year starter.
* Leads Big Ten in tackles (11.8 per game).
* Leads the Big Ten in tackles at 12 a game.
+ Stripped RB late in the 3Q last week, had the tackle secure and stripped it on his way down.
* Quick, sticky, accelerates better than Tyriq Thompson, playing the same position.
* Vs Rutgers he had 12 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 forced fumble, one INT, one TD. Only the second player in the nation to do that in the past 20 years.
SLB 5 MILO EIFLER (6-2, 225, Jr., Berkeley, Calif.)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 118 in the nation, No. 19 in California.
* Signed with Washington. Transferred to Illinois in 2018, sat out last year.
* Good hitter, inconsistent player, good potential.
- Not all that instinctive. Halted his backfield flow and was part of the problem in allowing a 17-yard run in the 2Q vs Rutgers last week.
* But he had a career high 10 tackles last week, 2 TFLs.
* Fumble recovery return for TD vs Minnesota.
+ Nice job reading the RPO, coming forward on time with proper leverage to stop the QB for a gain of 1 in the 3Q vs Rutgers. Nice quickness on the play.
+ Decent job reacting to QB scramble out of zone defense, converging at a good angle with good quickness and a good hit after a gain of 4.
* A good, jarring hitter.
+ Real good shoulder-to-shoulder hit on Badger WR Cephus.
* Allowed 31-yard TD pass on 3-13 last week on a throw to to the No .1 WR into the cover-two hole. 36 safety was influenced to the middle on a TE seam didn’t get over to the other WR. Rutgers erred in having two WRs in the same area, but Illinois didn’t cover eitehr of them. That cut Illinois’ lead to 10-7 in the 2Q last week.
- On third down, came inside with the wrong leverage on an inside run and let it bounce outside for a 10-yard gain on third-and-three vs Purdue in the 1Q.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: Nothing Special
* Cover two base team.
What’s open? The cover-two hole along the sideline, beyond the cloud corner (if the QB’s eyes can hold the safety, and if you can get a run game going to set up play action).
CB 6 TONY ADAMS (6-0, 185, Jr., Belleville, Ill.)
* 5.5 three-star, ranked No. 10 in Missouri.
* Big INT late in the Wisconsin game to set up the game-winning kick. Showing press, then bailing into the flat area for cover-two/cloud coverage. Fooled the QB.
* Moved from S to CB in recent weeks.
+ Solid job tacking on pulling offensive linemen to his side, going low and taking them out as blockers. A sign of good coaching and good buy-in by a little CB to go low and take out a big blocker.
+ 13-yard interception and return for a TD vs Purdue to give the Illini a 10-0 lead in the 2Q. He was playing outside technique in cover-two zone and somehow baited the bad throw. (Purdue pulled their QB and went with a third-string walk-on after that).
“He was one of our best 11, we had to get him on the field,” Smith said, in moving him from safety to cornerback recently.
SS 30 SYDNEY BROWN (6-0, 210, Soph., London, Ont./Bradenton, Fla. St. Stephen’s)
* 2-star, also visited Tulane.
* Second-year starter.
+ Nice tackle in open field vs Purdue David Bell while in two-deep.
+ Good, stiff sweep tackler in space.
FS 7 STANLEY GREEN (5-11, 190, Sr., East St. Louis, Ill.)
+ Good hit to break up an over route last week.
* Physical tackler, low.
+ Caused a Charbonnet fumble vs Michigan.
- Leverage mistake as part of a two-deep coverage, allowing a catch-and-run to get out for 25 yards by Michigan’s Ronnie Bell.
CB 8 NATE HOBBS (6-0, 190, Jr., Louisville, Ky.)
* Second-year starter.
- Allowed a 16-yard comeback on bailing cover-four last week, looked kind of stiff.
+ Tested deep by Michigan’s Don Peoples-Jones, INC.
SPECIAL TEAMS
* Dre Brown is averaging 25 yards per kickoff return with a long of 68. He’s a threat.
* Punt returner Jordan Holmes has a long of 15.
* Kicker McCourt hit a 39-yard field goal in the rain at Purdue. Then missed a 32-yarder.
+ Big hero with the game-winner against Wisconsin. Although he missed a 39-yarder earlier in the game.
* Punter Blake Hayes is averaging 45 yards per kick.
OVERALL: They are using a lot of players, going three deep at RG and three deep on the d-line. The team has turned the corner. They are having a blast. Everyone is getting involved. This is an excitable opponent. Can Michigan State match their enthusiasm and intensity? That's the first test. From there, the tests stay tricky.
ADD IT ALL UP:
Getting back the Vegas theme, the only thing I can think of is that when they put the numbers into their machines, MSU’s numbers against Ohio State and Penn State, the No. 1 and 4 teams in the nation, are an overall plus for the Spartans. And they must be eliminating the Wisconsin specimen, and eliminating the common opponent comparison for some reason.
And they must be looking at the first half of last week’s Rutgers game as the real Illinois, and they must be putting more stock into MSU’s games against Western Michigan, Indiana and Northwestern as the real Spartan team, and they must be putting equal emphasis on Illinois’ bad defensive performances early in the year against Minnesota, Nebraska and EMU.
When you write it out that way, the 14-point spread doesn’t seem outlandish. But then you look at the actual results on the field in each team’s last three games, and I can see why everyone thinks this is a “funny line.”
I just look at the personnel and the blocking and tackling. Illinois has been good-to-solid in those areas, consistently, over the last 14 quarters. Michigan State has barely played football over the last 25 days, and been mired in losing, player defections and distractions. You do the math.
https://michiganstate.forums.rivals.com/threads/pre-snap-read-part-1.192348/
HOW ILLINOIS BEAT WISCONSIN (Briefly)
This was no fluke. Illinois didn’t hang around, get some breaks and steal it at the end.
Illinois traded punches with Wisconsin all day. Sure, Wisconsin was looking ahead to Ohio State and slumbering. But Illinois played good football on both sides of the ball, all day.
How it went down:
* UW scored a TD on their first possession, scoring on an 18-yard TD to the TE on a skinny post vs cover-four zone.
* Illinois scored on a quick-strike, long TD pass to make it 13-7 before halftime (Wisconsin safety missed a tackle on an RPO).
* Illinois stiffened in the red zone, forced a field goal. Then forced another field goal attempt in the 3Q, which missed, and the game remained 20-7.
* Wisconsin was fortunate that it was 20-7 at that point. Illinois had fumbled on its own 20-yard line, which Wisconsin punched in for the 20-7 lead. Meanwhile, Illinois had a 75-yard TD pass called back due to an illegal man downfield penalty. The game was real close to being Illinois 14, Wisconsin 13 late in the 3Q instead of 20-7. Wisconsin was in more trouble that the score indicated at the time.
* Illinois cut it to 20-14 on a 42-yard TD run by RB Corbin late in the 3Q. That play was preceded by a nice 16-yard gain by QB Brandon Peters on a well-designed QB counter sweep. A couple of plays earlier, Illinois had a WR wide open on a post but Peters missed him. Illinois was landing blows on the Wisconsin defense.
* Wisconsin had a first-and-goal at the 3-yard line, up by 6, with 12:00 to go and Illinois kept them out of the end zone. Wisconsin’s big bad ground game gained 1, 1 and 0 yards on three straight run plays inside the 3.
Then Paul Chryst elected to kick a field goal rather than go for it on fourth-and-goal at the 1. That tells you the respect he had for Illinois’ defensive front. That put UW up by two scores, 23-14, with 10:45 to play, but it was another victory for the Illini, and further proof that this d-line can hold firm.
* Later, Wisconsins’ Jonathan Taylor fumbled at the Illinois 25-yard line with the Badgers up by 9 with 7:11 to go. Critical turnover, with LB Jake Hansen arriving in the pile late and prying it loose.
* Peterson then found the big WR, Josh Imatorbhebhe, for a 29-yard TD pass. A pair of chunk runs by RB Brown and RB Corbin set it up. That drive was no joke, cutting it to 23-21 with 5:50 left.
* Then Wisconsin threw an INT into a dropping, baiting cover-two CB. Then after a couple of intermediate throws by Peterson, Illinois kicked the game-winning field goal from 39 yards.
* When they beat Wisconsin it snapped an 0-24 streak against ranked teams and was Illinois’ first win against a Top 10 team since 2007.
ILLINOIS’ RICHROD OFFENSE
* Illinois offensive coordinator Rod Smith is a Rich Rodriguez guy. He coached for RichRod at West Virginia for one year, at Michigan for three as QBs coach, and at Arizona from 2012-17.
* They are a spread-to-run operation with a four-star pocket-passing QB like Brandon Peters, a Michigan transfer. The stuff looks a lot like RichRod’s first Michigan team with Steven Threet at QB. Peters isn’t perfect for this operation, but he will keep it three or four times a game for good gains.
* They go with pistol more so than RichRod did.
They go tempo. They go inside zone, outside zone. And they run some good counter stuff. And counters within RPO.
Most RPO teams run RPOs with zone blocking. Illinois will do some counter blocking inside with the bubble screen pass game on the outside, a little more sophisticated than most.
UNIQUE ASPECT:
* Illinois will occasionally have the RB do a short shift in shot gun from left RB to right RB, or vice-versa. This changes the strength of the formation slightly but alters some of the assignments of the defense. They do it an instant before the snap. Sometimes as part of an RPO.
Urban Meyer explains why this is problematic for a defense, in addition to the counter run RPO I mentioned earlier:
THE KEY: Stop the run.
That sounds simple. And usually that means stop the inside zone, when talking about a tempo, spread-to-run, zone read team.
But these guys run the outside zone as well as they run the inside zone. If you load up too much inside, they can hit you outside - not with the speed of an Ohio State or even a Wisconsin, but they can hit you out there.
So stopping the run means stopping both, which isn’t easy against Illinois. Their ground game is good.
LAST WEEK: Illinois 38, Rutgers 10
* Rutgers controlled the 2Q last week against Illinois to create a 10-10 tie at halftime.
* Illinois took control with a 54-yard zone read keeper run by QB Peters to the 2-yard line (setting up a TD, 17-10), followed almost immediately by a 35-yard fumble return for a TD (24-10), and then a 52-yard TD strike to WR Imatorbhebhe (31-10.
Illinois dominated the third quarter.
ILLINOIS DEFENSE: GOOD COACHING
* Illinois is a base cover-two zone team.
Sometimes they will show press at pre-snap against as many as three WRs, and the LBs will be compressed up at the line of scrimmage showing blitz, and Illinois will have a single safety deep.
Then at the snap, the linebacker drops into one coverage and the CBs bail into bump cover-two.
They did this for a pick-six against Rutgers, with the MLB dropping into short-area zone, intercepts the slant, returns it for a TD.
* Same look against Wisconsin, they showed press on all three WRs, then dropped into cover-two zone and got a coverage sack.
I’m sure other teams have done this look in college football, but in studying hundreds of college games over the last 20 years, I can’t recall seeing it a team go from all-out press across the board, and LBs up at the line of scrimmage, and be able to drop back into cover-two.
They’ve fooled some people with it recently. It’s on film. Michigan State can anticipate cover-two out of that look. Now will Illinois go ahead and blitz more in this game as a means of breaking tendency?
Illinois is not at all a blitz-heavy team. At least they haven’t been over the last four games. If they blitz more in this game, you’ll know it’s a tendency-breaker.
THE MICRO:
ILLINOIS PERSONNEL
OFFENSE
QB 18 BRANDON PETERS (6-5, 220, Jr., Avon, Ind.)
* Four-star QB, ranked No. 158 in the nation, No. 6 Pro Style QB, No. 3 in Indiana, signed with Michigan, transferred to Illinois.
* This week will be his 13th career start.
* Completing 55 pct of his passes, averaging 139 yards passing per game. 13 TDs, 4 INTs.
* Strong arm, decent touch deep down the sideline, not great touch on intermediate stuff over the middle. Doesn’t move well in the pocket, doesn’t elongate plays with his legs.
* Averaged 19 yards a completion vs Wisconsin.
* He is good with the deep ball down the sideline, good with the deep fade to tall WR No. 9.
* Has had some decent gains on zone reads and counter reads. But he doesn’t move well in the pocket, doesn’t feel the rush, doesn’t escape to elongate plays.
* Was knocked out of the Minnesota game with a concussion and didn’t play against Michigan.
* They were concerned about Wisconsin’s pass rush so they sprinted him out on a third-down situation, but he threw late and almost had it intercepted. That’s why they rarely ask him to throw on the run.
* Isn’t as good with the deep ball to the post (missed a wide open Imatorbhebhe) for a sure TD in the 3Q vs Wisconsin. [But Illinois scored three plays later anyway on a long TD run by RB Corbin].
- Missed WR Navarro on a shallow cross on third down to end the opening drive last week.
+ Decent deep touch pass on 3-7 in 1Q last week to Navarro, maybe underthrown by a half yard. Good catch by Navarro on a 50-50 ball. Navarro had him beat by 2 steps, throw was a little under thrown.
+ Good deep ball: Third-and-7 touchdown strike from the left hash to the right numbers to big No. 9. Good arm, good accuracy.
+ zone read keeper caught Rutgers in single safety, man to man, gained 54 yards. OLB took the pitch man, Peters kept it, made the single safety miss and sprinted to the 3-yard line.
- Not accurate on swing passes. Illinois threw some bubbles vs Michigan when they had to use their back-up QB but I haven’t seen many bubble screens from Peters.
++ RPO slant to Navarro for a 48-yard TD pass play vs Wisconsin after the Badger safety missed a tackle. Good read and good zip on the slant by Peters.
++ Beautiful deep ball for TD to big No. 9, Imatorbhebhe, for an apparent 73-yard TD vs Badger press coverage off a play action deep slant-and-go but it was called back due to ineligible player downfield as part of the RPO. But that’s what happens when you run a double-move while o-line is run blocking, the center zone-blocked downfield too far.
+ After beginning the 2H 1-for-6 against Wisconsin, he delivered a nice strike to TE Barker on a skinny post for a gain of 21. Barker lined up as the middle receiver in a trips formation and ran a good route and Peters threw a hard strike.
+ Zipped a 29-yard strike to big No. 9, Imatorbhebe, to cut Wisconsin’s lead to 23-21 in the fourth quarter.
+ Rifled a 12-yard pass to TE Barker on third-and-six during game-winning drive vs Wisconsin. UW was in off coverage and Barker had a free release from the slot.
(QB 12 Matt Robinson, 6-1, 190, San Juan Capistrano, Calif.)
* Was a 5.4 two-star recruit. Had offers from mid-majors.
* Has played in six games. Completing 56 pct of his passes for a total of 348 yards.
* He was 16 of 25 for 192 yards vs Michigan with 1 TD and 0 INTs.
* He kind of scampers around and makes some harried throws. They threw more bubbles and tunnels against Michigan than they do with Peters.
ILLINOIS’ GROUND GAME
Illinois has rushed for 204 yards (4.6 per carry vs Rutgers), 242 yards in the rain vs Purdue (4.6 per) and 141 against Wisconsin (4.0 per).
That’s pretty good, consistent run game production.
In Big Ten games, Illinois ranks No. 5 in the conference in rushing offense at 160.5 yards per game.
MSU’s rush defense ego has been battered through the October gauntlet. Now, can they recharge and resurge? I know they CAN. But do they still have the will? Vegas seems to think so.
They’ll need it because Illinois’ rushing attack is good. Not great. But it’s good. They will likely get their 140 or more against Michigan State.
They rotate three capable RBs. Corbin is the most explosive. Dre Brown can get north too.
RB 2 REGGIE CORBIN (5-10, 200, Sr., Upper Marlboro, Md./Washington DC Gonzaga)
* Was a two-star recruit, ranked No. 11 in D.C.
* Offers from Washington State, Toledo.
* 618 yards rushing, averaging 72 yards rushing per game and 5.3 per attempt.
* Will reverse his field and go the other way on a zone, try to bounce it outside.
- Not good in pass protection.
+ Quick, shifty little guy. Like a watered-down JK Dobbins.
+ 25-yard run on the second play of the game vs Wisconsin, an inside-zone. He made LB Orr miss in space with a shake-and-bake lateral step. Nice run. Michigan State didn’t have a run that long all day against UW.
+ 42 yard TD run against Wisconsin on an inside zone, good acceleration behind excellent blocking.
25 RB Dre Brown (5-11, 210, Sr., DeKalb, Ill.)
* 5.7 three-star recruit ranked No. 8 in Illinois. Had offers from Indiana and Oregon State.
* 442 yards on the year, 6.0 per carry, 49.1 yards per game.
* Has had injury problems in the past but is doing well this year. He missed his first two years due to injuries, then played six games in 2017 and seven games last year but is coming on this year.
* Had a career-high rushing by halftime of the Purdue game with 112, and finished with 131 on a career-high 18 carries.
+ 10 yard TD last week on an outside zone. Decent cut, not a great one, on that play and pretty good vision, cutting behind over pursuit and making a safety miss.
* 2-yard TD run on first-and-goal out of the Wildcat against Rutgers in a tight-formation Wildcat with tight splits, outside zone right.
* 11 rushes for 70 yards against Wisconsin.
* Slashing runner.
+ Gained 20 and 25 on consecutive plays vs Purdue in the 2Q, getting good blocking on a counter and an outside zone.
+ Had a great, quick 15 yard run on an outside zone to get into field goal range at the end of the Wisconsin game, getting 6 yards after contact, breaking two tackles for the final 5 yards.
21 RB Ra’Von Bonner (5-11, 215, Jr., Cincinnati)
* 5.5 three-star recruit, ranked No. 49 in Ohio.
* Offers from Iowa and MACs.
* Downhill runner.
* 188 yards on the year, 3.7 per. Three TDs. Good short-yardage guy.
* Gains of 6 and 8 on an inside zone and an outside zone vs Purdue early in the 2Q.
* Had a TD in each of the first three games.
WIDE RECEIVERS: One Mismatch Guy & Support
WR 9 JOSH IMATORBHEBHE (6-2, 215, Jr., Suwanee, Ga.)
* Four-star recruit, No. 217 in the nation, signed with USC.
* Grad transfer arrived with two years of eligibility.
* Had two catches in three years at USC, including a redshirt yeear.
* Leads Illinois with 25 catches, seven TDs.
* Has been hampered by some drops this year but makes up for it with excellent plays down the field, especially down the sideline on fades and deep go routes.
- Couldn’t finish a well-thrown 15-yard fade/jumpball in the end zone last week. Extended his hands nice and high, he’s a big target, but didn’t finish that catch.
+ 52-yard TD on a deep go route vs press last week to give Illinois a 31-10 lead.
* With the way Michigan State presses, you will see him go jumpball against Josiah Scott, or whomever, at least twice on Sturday.
+ Dominated his matchup with UW cornerback Burton. Drew a holding penalty on him on a deep go route in the 2Q.
* He fumbled at the Illinois 21-yard line in the 3Q, setting up a 20-7 lead for the Badgers.
WR 4 RICKEY SMALLING (6-1, 205, Jr., Chicago)
* Four-star recruit, No. 6 in Illinois.
* Out the past two weeks with what looked like a serious ankle injury against Wisconsin. He is expected to be out for this game.
* He is their second-leading receiver with 24 catches. Was their leader prior to the injury.
WR 6 Dominic Stampley (5-10, 180, Jr., Champaign, Ill./Coffeyville CC)
* Former walk-on.
* Carried on an end around last week for no gain.
+ 15 yard catch on an RPO against Wisconsin, making the CB miss in space.
* 9 catches on the year.
WR 86 Donny Navarro (5-11, 185, Soph., Naperville, Ill.)
* Valparaiso transfer, awarded a scholarship this week.
* 11 catches on the season.
+ 16 yard catch vs Purdue on a slot curl.
++ RPO slant to Navarro for a 48-yard TD pass play after the Badger safety missed a tackle. Good read and good zip on the slant by Peters.
TE 87 Daniel Barker (6-4, 250, Soph. Fort Lauderdale).
* 5.5 three-star recruit.
* Offers from Pitt, CFU, App State, UAB.
- Dropped consecutive passes against Wisconsin in the 2Q.
* Ranks fourth on the team in catches with 12, including a 52-yard TD.
* Solid blocker.
TE 81 Griffin Palmer (6-5, 245, Jr., St. Charles, Mo.)
* Two-star recruit with offers from ISU and mid-majors.
- Below average point of attack blocker.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Not Bad, Getting Better
* Pass protection has been below average, but run blocking is good, varied and improving.
* On outside zones, they’ll cut-block you (take your feet out) on the back side. That gets on your nerves.
* The center is experienced and good. Right guard is good. Those two work well together and get guys out to the LB well on zone plays.
* Good quickness on their counters. They don’t run a lot of counters, but when they do, they’re quick and they catch you.
LT 79 VEDERIAN LOWE (6-6, 320, Jr., Rockford, Ill.)
* 5.6 three-star recruit. No. 16 in Illinois.
* Early Illinois commitment, no other offers.
* Kind of slow when he pulls.
* Left the game with a right arm injury last week, came back in with a brace on the arm.
- Not real firm on outside zones runs.
* Below average in pass pro. Looks like a MAC-level LT in pass pro.
+ Good run block vs UW’s DE 93, getting low, putting him on skates, 13 yard gain by Corbin in the 1Q. Very good double team by LG/C with the LG 53 getting out to a LB.
++ Drove Michigan’s Aiden Hutchinson backward at point of attack on two-point conversion run in the 4Q.
LG 53 KENDRICK GREEN (6-4, 310, Soph., Peoria, Ill.)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, No. 14 in Illinois.
* Also visited Iowa, Illinois, UCF.
- Left side of the line allowed a sack on a LB inside stunt last week on third-and-medium in the 2Q.
* Good quickness as a pull guard on counters.
- Alloweed another sack on third-and-eight in the 2Q vs Rutgers when a stunt came from the opposite side and he didn’t identify it.
+ Real nice contact as a pull blocker on a counter for Tre Brown for a gain of 20 in the 2Q vs Purdue.
+ Good job getting out to the LB level on an outside zone for a 25-yard by Brown in the 2Q vs Purdue.
C 65 DOUG KRAMER (6-2, 300, Jr., Hinsdale, Ill.)
* Two-star recruit.
* Also visited FAU. Had offers from Army and MACs.
* Is the No. 1 graded center in the Power Five by PFF heading into this week.
* 24 straight starts.
* Michigan State has recruited well at Hinsdale, but probably passed on Kramer due to his height. Mistake.
+ Got out to LB level pretty decently on a 10-yard TD run by Brown on an outside zone last week.
+ Good job crossing the face of the Purdue NG and getting a seal on an outside zone for RB Dre Brown for a gain of 41.
+ Pried the Purdue NG out with a combo from LG 53 for a 6-yard run on an inside zone in the red zone in the 2Q vs Purdue.
RG 74 RICHIE PETITBON (6-4, 305, Sr., Annapolis, Md.)
* Four-star, No. 51 in the nation, No. 1 in DC.
* Signed with Alabama, came to Illinois this year as a grad transfer.
* Was a career back-up at Alabama. Is probably Illinois’ second best o-lineman now.
* Their best pull lineman, good job turning the corner and getting pad level low at point of attack a counter for a gain of 9 in the 1Q last week.
+ Decently physical with his double team block with the center in moving the Rutgers NG during an inside zone gainer in the 3Q vs Rutgers.
+ Good pull on a counter in the 1Q vs Purdue, turning the corner with agility to find the MLB and seal him inside.
++ Pancaked Wisconsin’s Loudermilk on an inside zone, helping RB Corbin blast up the middle for a 42-yard TD run to cut Wisconsin’s lead to 20-14 late in the 3Q.
RT 63 ALEX PALCZEWSKI (6-6, 300, Mount Prospect, Ill.)
* 2-star recruit. Offers from Syracuse and Vanderbilt.
* 32 straight starts.
* PFF first-team All-Big Ten last year.
- Missed a block vs DE on first play of game last week, inside zone gain of 1.
- Allowed a sack in the 1Q vs Purdue on a bull punch, push/pull.
DEFENSIVE LINE: Strength in Numbers
* Not real explosive on the d-line, but they have some able bodies, some big bellies and they have some depth. Michigan State
* Not much of a pass rush from the standard down four when No. 47 is a little banged up. Maybe they get some push off of stunts, but they don’t have great one-on-one pass rushers.
* They have some sturdy guys with good phone booth quickness who make good use of quick slants and spike moves. They don’t have explosive ransackers on the d-line, but you’re not going to steamroll them.
* They do more cross-face slants than most d-lines. They’re pretty good at it.
* I don’t know when I’ve taken more notes on defensive linemen than this year for Illinois. They have a slew of them.
DE 47 OLOWOLE BETIKU (6-3, 250, Jr., Lagos, Nigeria/Gardena, Calif.)
* Was a four-star recruit, ranked No. 11 in California, signed with USC, grad-transferred to Illinois).
* He missed last season with an injury at USC and was unhappy about lack of playing time and changing positions and roles.
* Missed the Purdue game two weeks ago.
* 8 sacks on the year.
+ Decent pressing of the pocket to bat a pass INC in the red zone last week.
+ Decent job on inside zone getting off RT to make tackle on third-and-four for gain of 3 in the 2Q last week.
- Not real firm at the point of attack vs the run, but can Michigan State do anyhting about it?
* Got this right ankle rolled up on vs Wisconsin. I didn’t see him when he was at his best earlier in the year. Not sure what his shape is for this week.
DT 55 JAMAL MILAN (6-3, 300, Sr., Chicago)
* 5.6 3-star, ranked No. 14 in Illinois
* Also visited Indiana, ISU, Minnesota.
* He camped at Michigan State and badly wanted an Michigan State offer but didn’t get it. That might be bad news for Michigan State this weekend.
* He is their best interior DT, is having an HM All-Big Ten type of season and is a demonstrative leader.
* 7 TFLs on they ear.
+ TFL last week in the 2q on a sack, on a twist with DT 96.
+ Sack vs Purdue on third-and-11. Not much of a pass rush move. The LG for Purdue wasn’t good. A little bit of a coverage sack.
* Milan has a reputation, according to Illinois alum and BTN analyst J Lehman, as being a plus pass rusher for a d-tackle.
* Emotional leader in the front seven. Has battled injuries earlier in his career but is having a good senior year.
* Lovie Smith says Milan has a future in the NFL.
+ Pretty good sideline to sideline speed for a DT, including a heavy tackle on the Purdue QB early in the 2Q.
DE 52 Ayo Shogbonyo (6-2, 240, Jr., Arlington, Texas)
* 2-star, offers from Air Force, Army, UTEP.
+ Quick inside slant for a TFL on the RB on the last play of the 1Q vs Purdue.
* Not terrible at POA on outside zone for UW.
* 1.5 sacks on the year, 8.5 TFLs.
DE 99 Owen Carney (6-3, 255, Jr., Miami)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 42 in Florida and No. 15 at weakside DE.
* Had offers from Cal, Duke, FSU, Kentucky, Miami, Maryland and several others.
+ Sack vs Purdue, converging from behind after a good, not great, outside move.
* 2 sacks on the year, 14 total tackles.
DT 96 TYMIR OLIVER (6-4, 290, Sr., Philadelphia)
* Two-star recruit, No. 34 in Pennsylvania.
* Offers from Pitt, UConn, Northwestern, BC, Rutgers.
* Second-year starter.
* Slowish.
* 21 tackles, 3.5 TFLs.
+ Good hit and disengage vs Badger LG to tackle Jonathan Taylor for no gain on third-and-goal counter at the 6-yard line, forcing a field goal and a 10-0 Badger lead early in the 2Q.
+ Should have been credited with a sack on a stunt vs UW in the 2Q for a fumble but it was ruled (barely) a pass.
DT 95 Kenyon Jackson (6-0, 290, Sr., Little Rock, Ark.)
* 2-star recruit, no other D-1 offers.
* 5 tackles on the year.
* Gerald Owens type.
* Decent head and shoulder quickness.
* Injured against Purdue, didn’t play against Rutgers.
+ Push and pull to get off LG and make TFL on RB Taylor to create 2-11 for Wisconsin with 3:14 to play.
DT 93 Calvin Avery (6-2, 330, Soph., Dallas)
* Four-star, ranked No. 170 in the nation and No. 17 in Texas.
* Offers from ASU, Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Louisville, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, USC, A&M.
* Officially visited Rice.
* 5 tackles on the year.
* Firm vs double-teams vs Rutgers.
* Big-belly guy who doesn’t have great feet, but stands up to double-team blocking. Useful off the bench.
DT 91 Jamal Woods (6-2, 290, Soph., Hueytown, Ala.)
* 2-star recruit, officially visited Memphis and Kansas.
* 5.5 TFLs on the season.
+ Hero of a goal line stand against UW. He dominated the UW RG on the goal line stand. He uprooted the RG on third-and-goal at the 1 AND made the tackle, a terrific play.
* I didn’t notice this guy No. 91 in other games, but he looked excellent in this situation.
* One Lovie Smith move that I would disagree with: After a fumble in the 3Q vs UW, the Illini had second-string d-linemen Owen Carney and Jamal Woods on the field. That’s not who you want on the field in a sudden change red zone situation. They were both bowled over on two straight plays as Wisconsin gained 14 and 7 (TD).
DE 92 Isaiah Gay (6-3, 240, Jr., Nashville, NC)
* 2-star recruit. Had offers from East Carolina and Elon.
* 14 tackles on the year, 2 sacks.
* Looks and moves like a d-end. Not back for a back-up.
+ Some late pressure from him on third and 6 against Rutgers in the 2Q on a bull rush, not a great bull rush, Rutgers LT not very good.
+ Poked the ball loose from the QB on a scramble resulting in a fumble and 35-yard fumble return for CB Nate Hobbs last week.
+ Shows good lateral movement when left unblocked on the back side, low, slide shuffle like a basketball player, staying coiled with quickness, reading, correct with potential energy.
+ Good quick slant to get in QB Coan’s face for a hurried INC in the 3Q vs Wisconsin, drawing a holding penalty.
LINEBACKERS: Opportunistic
They hunt and shed and tackle pretty well behind a firm defensive line.
WLB 35 JAKE HANSEN (6-1, 225, Jr., Tarpon Springs, Fla.)
* 2-star recruit, had offers from ISU, Army, Navy, Air Force, mid-majors.
* Leads the country in forced fumbles with seven.
* 7.5 tackles for loss.
* Second-year starter.
* Forced a fumble vs Michigan RB, putting a helmet on the ball.
* Forced a fumble vs Wisconsin RB as the second man in, getting the strip.
+ Blitz, sack vs UW. He set a pick on the LT for a stunting D-end. Somehow the LT and RB were confused by it, for a strip and fumble.
- Stepped out of his gap and allowed a 17-yard run through his area on zone read give in the 2Q vs Rutgers.
MLB 9 DELE HARDING (6-1, 230, Sr., Elkton, Md.)
* 5.6 three-star recruit, ranked No. 20 in Maryland.
* Also visited Rutgers. Had offers from USC and Tennessee.
* First-year starter.
* Leads Big Ten in tackles (11.8 per game).
* Leads the Big Ten in tackles at 12 a game.
+ Stripped RB late in the 3Q last week, had the tackle secure and stripped it on his way down.
* Quick, sticky, accelerates better than Tyriq Thompson, playing the same position.
* Vs Rutgers he had 12 tackles, 2 TFLs, 1 forced fumble, one INT, one TD. Only the second player in the nation to do that in the past 20 years.
SLB 5 MILO EIFLER (6-2, 225, Jr., Berkeley, Calif.)
* Four-star recruit, ranked No. 118 in the nation, No. 19 in California.
* Signed with Washington. Transferred to Illinois in 2018, sat out last year.
* Good hitter, inconsistent player, good potential.
- Not all that instinctive. Halted his backfield flow and was part of the problem in allowing a 17-yard run in the 2Q vs Rutgers last week.
* But he had a career high 10 tackles last week, 2 TFLs.
* Fumble recovery return for TD vs Minnesota.
+ Nice job reading the RPO, coming forward on time with proper leverage to stop the QB for a gain of 1 in the 3Q vs Rutgers. Nice quickness on the play.
+ Decent job reacting to QB scramble out of zone defense, converging at a good angle with good quickness and a good hit after a gain of 4.
* A good, jarring hitter.
+ Real good shoulder-to-shoulder hit on Badger WR Cephus.
* Allowed 31-yard TD pass on 3-13 last week on a throw to to the No .1 WR into the cover-two hole. 36 safety was influenced to the middle on a TE seam didn’t get over to the other WR. Rutgers erred in having two WRs in the same area, but Illinois didn’t cover eitehr of them. That cut Illinois’ lead to 10-7 in the 2Q last week.
- On third down, came inside with the wrong leverage on an inside run and let it bounce outside for a 10-yard gain on third-and-three vs Purdue in the 1Q.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: Nothing Special
* Cover two base team.
What’s open? The cover-two hole along the sideline, beyond the cloud corner (if the QB’s eyes can hold the safety, and if you can get a run game going to set up play action).
CB 6 TONY ADAMS (6-0, 185, Jr., Belleville, Ill.)
* 5.5 three-star, ranked No. 10 in Missouri.
* Big INT late in the Wisconsin game to set up the game-winning kick. Showing press, then bailing into the flat area for cover-two/cloud coverage. Fooled the QB.
* Moved from S to CB in recent weeks.
+ Solid job tacking on pulling offensive linemen to his side, going low and taking them out as blockers. A sign of good coaching and good buy-in by a little CB to go low and take out a big blocker.
+ 13-yard interception and return for a TD vs Purdue to give the Illini a 10-0 lead in the 2Q. He was playing outside technique in cover-two zone and somehow baited the bad throw. (Purdue pulled their QB and went with a third-string walk-on after that).
“He was one of our best 11, we had to get him on the field,” Smith said, in moving him from safety to cornerback recently.
SS 30 SYDNEY BROWN (6-0, 210, Soph., London, Ont./Bradenton, Fla. St. Stephen’s)
* 2-star, also visited Tulane.
* Second-year starter.
+ Nice tackle in open field vs Purdue David Bell while in two-deep.
+ Good, stiff sweep tackler in space.
FS 7 STANLEY GREEN (5-11, 190, Sr., East St. Louis, Ill.)
+ Good hit to break up an over route last week.
* Physical tackler, low.
+ Caused a Charbonnet fumble vs Michigan.
- Leverage mistake as part of a two-deep coverage, allowing a catch-and-run to get out for 25 yards by Michigan’s Ronnie Bell.
CB 8 NATE HOBBS (6-0, 190, Jr., Louisville, Ky.)
* Second-year starter.
- Allowed a 16-yard comeback on bailing cover-four last week, looked kind of stiff.
+ Tested deep by Michigan’s Don Peoples-Jones, INC.
SPECIAL TEAMS
* Dre Brown is averaging 25 yards per kickoff return with a long of 68. He’s a threat.
* Punt returner Jordan Holmes has a long of 15.
* Kicker McCourt hit a 39-yard field goal in the rain at Purdue. Then missed a 32-yarder.
+ Big hero with the game-winner against Wisconsin. Although he missed a 39-yarder earlier in the game.
* Punter Blake Hayes is averaging 45 yards per kick.
OVERALL: They are using a lot of players, going three deep at RG and three deep on the d-line. The team has turned the corner. They are having a blast. Everyone is getting involved. This is an excitable opponent. Can Michigan State match their enthusiasm and intensity? That's the first test. From there, the tests stay tricky.
ADD IT ALL UP:
Getting back the Vegas theme, the only thing I can think of is that when they put the numbers into their machines, MSU’s numbers against Ohio State and Penn State, the No. 1 and 4 teams in the nation, are an overall plus for the Spartans. And they must be eliminating the Wisconsin specimen, and eliminating the common opponent comparison for some reason.
And they must be looking at the first half of last week’s Rutgers game as the real Illinois, and they must be putting more stock into MSU’s games against Western Michigan, Indiana and Northwestern as the real Spartan team, and they must be putting equal emphasis on Illinois’ bad defensive performances early in the year against Minnesota, Nebraska and EMU.
When you write it out that way, the 14-point spread doesn’t seem outlandish. But then you look at the actual results on the field in each team’s last three games, and I can see why everyone thinks this is a “funny line.”
I just look at the personnel and the blocking and tackling. Illinois has been good-to-solid in those areas, consistently, over the last 14 quarters. Michigan State has barely played football over the last 25 days, and been mired in losing, player defections and distractions. You do the math.
