With Purdue's curb-stomping of the Wolverines on Friday night, the updated Big Ten odds look like this:
It is essentially a dead heat right now between the Boilermakers and the Spartans, but there is notably only about a 25% chance that the title is shared. While Purdue has two losses in Big Ten play, the metrics got a big boost from pounding Michigan and Purdue has played three more conference games than MSU has at this point.
Michigan has dropped to a distant third, which is not a surprise to me. I suspect that they will finish somewhere between No. 4 and No. 6 in the league. May has done a great job assembling a solid roster, but I think that there was a bit a fool's gold with that team's early success. Real contenders usually don't have three losses outside quad one at this point in the season.
The Spartans need to keep pace with Purdue. A win today at MSG over Rutgers and a win against Minnesota will once again give the Spartans a comfortable cushion, but they still need to execute and win those contests. Other Big Ten teams have not been able to do that.
That said, MSU might have caught a break today, based on the injury report coming out of Rutgers:
The line has already shifted several points in MSU's favor. Still... this game makes me nervous. Road games are always tought, Rutgers tends to play really well against MSU, and this is exactly the time of year when MSU tends to put up a few clunkers. Even the 2019 team lost three in a row in late January and early February. So far, this team has shown a lot of resiliance, and a lot of that seems to stem from the big rotation. Someone always seems available to step up and ball out when needed.
If MSU can get to 9-0 before the trip out west, they will remain in very solid shape. If they can go 3-1 (or better) in the next four, the title odds should start to approach 75% or so. But they need to take things one game at a time.
It is essentially a dead heat right now between the Boilermakers and the Spartans, but there is notably only about a 25% chance that the title is shared. While Purdue has two losses in Big Ten play, the metrics got a big boost from pounding Michigan and Purdue has played three more conference games than MSU has at this point.
Michigan has dropped to a distant third, which is not a surprise to me. I suspect that they will finish somewhere between No. 4 and No. 6 in the league. May has done a great job assembling a solid roster, but I think that there was a bit a fool's gold with that team's early success. Real contenders usually don't have three losses outside quad one at this point in the season.
The Spartans need to keep pace with Purdue. A win today at MSG over Rutgers and a win against Minnesota will once again give the Spartans a comfortable cushion, but they still need to execute and win those contests. Other Big Ten teams have not been able to do that.
That said, MSU might have caught a break today, based on the injury report coming out of Rutgers:
The line has already shifted several points in MSU's favor. Still... this game makes me nervous. Road games are always tought, Rutgers tends to play really well against MSU, and this is exactly the time of year when MSU tends to put up a few clunkers. Even the 2019 team lost three in a row in late January and early February. So far, this team has shown a lot of resiliance, and a lot of that seems to stem from the big rotation. Someone always seems available to step up and ball out when needed.
If MSU can get to 9-0 before the trip out west, they will remain in very solid shape. If they can go 3-1 (or better) in the next four, the title odds should start to approach 75% or so. But they need to take things one game at a time.
