Stars matter: Analyzing the recruiting rankings of the 1st-round draft picks
By Ari Wasserman 1m ago
Every year on National Signing Day, college football coaches get up in front of the media and pump up the recruiting classes they just signed. Though there is enough data to link top-10 recruiting classes to elite-level teams, many of those coaches also say the real test for determining whether a recruiting class was successful comes down to NFL draft results.
Some of those results are in, thanks to the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Of the 32 players selected Thursday night:
• Six were consensus five-star prospects out of high school.
• Fourteen were consensus four-star prospects out of high school.
• Eleven were consensus three-star prospects out of high school.
• Fourteen were consensus national top-100 prospects, including 11 who were consensus top-50 recruits and five who were in the top 25.
A few pieces of context:
• It’s important to remember that there are not an even number of three-, four- and five-star prospects in each class. In a given year, there are about 35 five-star prospects and another 300 or so four-star prospects. That means the bulk of the nearly 3,000 signees each year are three-star prospects or lower. A quick glance at the first round shows that about one-third were three-star prospects. But it’s important to remember that three-star prospects make up about 90 percent of those who sign each year.
• That means that roughly 10 percent of those who sign annually are four- or five-star prospects — but they made up 66 percent of the first-round selections Thursday night (that figure roughly is the same every year).
• The numbers we’re using are the consensus rankings. 247Sports national recruiting analyst Barton Simmons noted that just six of the 32 first-rounders did not get a four- or five-star ranking from at least one of the major recruiting services. In other words, a prospect may be a consensus three-star recruit, but one of the major services could have him as a four-star guy. (The three major services are Rivals.com, ESPN and 247Sports.)
Here’s a breakdown of the players and their recruiting rankings.
Five-star prospects selected
• 2. Chase Young to Washington Redskins: No. 7 overall in his class
• 3. Jeffrey Okudah to Detroit Lions: No. 3 overall
• 5. Tua Tagovailoa to Miami Dolphins: No. 32 overall
• 7. Derrick Brown to Carolina Panthers: No. 9 overall
• 15. Jerry Jeudy to Denver Broncos: No. 21 overall
• 29. Isaiah Wilson to Tennessee Titans: No. 16 overall
Four-star prospects selected
• 1. Joe Burrow to Cincinnati Bengals: No. 280 overall
• 4. Andrew Thomas to New York Giants: No. 45 overall
• 9. C.J. Henderson to Jacksonville Jaguars: No. 139 overall
• 10. Jedrick Wills to Cleveland Browns: No. 34 overall
• 12. Henry Ruggs to Las Vegas Raiders: No. 75 overall
• 13. Tristan Wirfs to Tampa Bay Buccaneers: No. 331 overall
• 14. Javon Kinlaw to San Francisco 49ers: No. 341 overall
• 16. A.J. Terrell to Atlanta Falcons: No. 55 overall
• 17. CeeDee Lamb to Dallas Cowboys: No. 148 overall
• 18. Austin Jackson to Miami Dolphins: No. 35 overall
• 20. K’Lavon Chaisson to Jacksonville Jaguars: No. 37 overall
• 21. Jalen Reagor to Philadelphia Eagles: No. 96 overall
• 24. Cesar Ruiz to New Orleans Saints: No. 47 overall
• 28. Patrick Queen to Baltimore Ravens: No. 298 overall
• 30. Noah Igbinoghene to Miami Dolphins: No. 290 overall
Three-star prospects selected
• 6. Justin Herbert to Los Angeles Chargers: No. 659 overall
• 8. Isaiah Simmons to Arizona Cardinals: No. 451 overall
• 11. Mekhi Becton to New York Jets: No. 405 overall
• 19. Damon Arnette to Las Vegas Raiders: No. 653 overall
• 22. Justin Jefferson to Minnesota Vikings: No. 2,164 overall
• 23. Kenneth Murray to Los Angeles Chargers: No. 434 overall
• 26. Jordan Love to Green Bay Packers: No. 1,645 overall
• 27. Jordyn Brooks to Seattle Seahawks: No. 883 overall
• 31. Jeff Gladney to Minnesota Vikings, No. 1,558 overall
• 32. Clyde Edwards-Helaire to Kansas City Chiefs: No. 378 overall
(The disparity among three-star recruits can be massive just because there are so many. An example: Edwards-Helaire was a three-star prospect who ranked 378th nationally, which is almost four-star range, and Jefferson was a three-star prospect who ranked 2,164th national. That’s a difference of 1,786 spots.)
Unranked prospects selected
• 25. Brandon Aiyuk to San Francisco 49ers: Unranked high school player, was a three-star prospect as a junior college transfer.
Final thoughts
• Eight of the first 16 picks played at Alabama, Clemson or Ohio State. There is a correlation between the best players and the best teams.
• The state-by-state breakdown of where the first-round picks played their high school football: Texas had seven, Florida had four, Georgia and Louisiana had three each, Alabama had two and Arizona, California, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina and Virginia had one each. (You’ll notice that most colleges emphasize at least one of those high-ranking states in their out-of-state recruiting strategies.) And of those seven players who played high school football in Texas, none played at Texas or Texas A&M.
• The Opening finals, a camp presented by Nike, is held every summer and it’s invite-only for the best players in the country. This year, a record 13 players who participated in The Opening finals were drafted in the first round. If your school signs someone who got an invitation to that camp, that’s something to get excited about.
• Of the six five-star prospects selected, four went in the top seven. A prospect is given a five-star ranking because he has a naturally advanced skill set athletically, traits that simply cannot be duplicated through hard work or dedication. When those five-star prospects work hard, that’s when they turn into millionaires and Pro Bowlers.
• LSU had five players taken in the first round, and Chaisson (a Texan) was the only one of the five who was a top-250 recruit. LSU almost always signs a top-10 class, but the coaches clearly have excelled in the development phase as well.
• A side statistic while we’re on the topic of LSU: In the past 20 years, only three teams have won a national title without having signed at least one top-five recruiting class in one of the previous four years. The exceptions were 2010 Auburn, 2016 Clemson and 2018 Clemson. Those teams were led by Cam Newton Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence, respectively. This is a quarterback-driven sport, and when you have a guy like those three (and Burrow, too) leading the way, that makes up for some recruiting misses.
• There were a record 15 players selected from the SEC, followed by the Big Ten (five), Big 12 (five), ACC (three), Pac-12 (three) and Mountain West (one). Just in case there was any question as to which conference is the most talented from top-to-bottom, it’s the SEC.
By Ari Wasserman 1m ago
Every year on National Signing Day, college football coaches get up in front of the media and pump up the recruiting classes they just signed. Though there is enough data to link top-10 recruiting classes to elite-level teams, many of those coaches also say the real test for determining whether a recruiting class was successful comes down to NFL draft results.
Some of those results are in, thanks to the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. Of the 32 players selected Thursday night:
• Six were consensus five-star prospects out of high school.
• Fourteen were consensus four-star prospects out of high school.
• Eleven were consensus three-star prospects out of high school.
• Fourteen were consensus national top-100 prospects, including 11 who were consensus top-50 recruits and five who were in the top 25.
A few pieces of context:
• It’s important to remember that there are not an even number of three-, four- and five-star prospects in each class. In a given year, there are about 35 five-star prospects and another 300 or so four-star prospects. That means the bulk of the nearly 3,000 signees each year are three-star prospects or lower. A quick glance at the first round shows that about one-third were three-star prospects. But it’s important to remember that three-star prospects make up about 90 percent of those who sign each year.
• That means that roughly 10 percent of those who sign annually are four- or five-star prospects — but they made up 66 percent of the first-round selections Thursday night (that figure roughly is the same every year).
• The numbers we’re using are the consensus rankings. 247Sports national recruiting analyst Barton Simmons noted that just six of the 32 first-rounders did not get a four- or five-star ranking from at least one of the major recruiting services. In other words, a prospect may be a consensus three-star recruit, but one of the major services could have him as a four-star guy. (The three major services are Rivals.com, ESPN and 247Sports.)
Here’s a breakdown of the players and their recruiting rankings.
Five-star prospects selected
• 2. Chase Young to Washington Redskins: No. 7 overall in his class
• 3. Jeffrey Okudah to Detroit Lions: No. 3 overall
• 5. Tua Tagovailoa to Miami Dolphins: No. 32 overall
• 7. Derrick Brown to Carolina Panthers: No. 9 overall
• 15. Jerry Jeudy to Denver Broncos: No. 21 overall
• 29. Isaiah Wilson to Tennessee Titans: No. 16 overall
Four-star prospects selected
• 1. Joe Burrow to Cincinnati Bengals: No. 280 overall
• 4. Andrew Thomas to New York Giants: No. 45 overall
• 9. C.J. Henderson to Jacksonville Jaguars: No. 139 overall
• 10. Jedrick Wills to Cleveland Browns: No. 34 overall
• 12. Henry Ruggs to Las Vegas Raiders: No. 75 overall
• 13. Tristan Wirfs to Tampa Bay Buccaneers: No. 331 overall
• 14. Javon Kinlaw to San Francisco 49ers: No. 341 overall
• 16. A.J. Terrell to Atlanta Falcons: No. 55 overall
• 17. CeeDee Lamb to Dallas Cowboys: No. 148 overall
• 18. Austin Jackson to Miami Dolphins: No. 35 overall
• 20. K’Lavon Chaisson to Jacksonville Jaguars: No. 37 overall
• 21. Jalen Reagor to Philadelphia Eagles: No. 96 overall
• 24. Cesar Ruiz to New Orleans Saints: No. 47 overall
• 28. Patrick Queen to Baltimore Ravens: No. 298 overall
• 30. Noah Igbinoghene to Miami Dolphins: No. 290 overall
Three-star prospects selected
• 6. Justin Herbert to Los Angeles Chargers: No. 659 overall
• 8. Isaiah Simmons to Arizona Cardinals: No. 451 overall
• 11. Mekhi Becton to New York Jets: No. 405 overall
• 19. Damon Arnette to Las Vegas Raiders: No. 653 overall
• 22. Justin Jefferson to Minnesota Vikings: No. 2,164 overall
• 23. Kenneth Murray to Los Angeles Chargers: No. 434 overall
• 26. Jordan Love to Green Bay Packers: No. 1,645 overall
• 27. Jordyn Brooks to Seattle Seahawks: No. 883 overall
• 31. Jeff Gladney to Minnesota Vikings, No. 1,558 overall
• 32. Clyde Edwards-Helaire to Kansas City Chiefs: No. 378 overall
(The disparity among three-star recruits can be massive just because there are so many. An example: Edwards-Helaire was a three-star prospect who ranked 378th nationally, which is almost four-star range, and Jefferson was a three-star prospect who ranked 2,164th national. That’s a difference of 1,786 spots.)
Unranked prospects selected
• 25. Brandon Aiyuk to San Francisco 49ers: Unranked high school player, was a three-star prospect as a junior college transfer.
Final thoughts
• Eight of the first 16 picks played at Alabama, Clemson or Ohio State. There is a correlation between the best players and the best teams.
• The state-by-state breakdown of where the first-round picks played their high school football: Texas had seven, Florida had four, Georgia and Louisiana had three each, Alabama had two and Arizona, California, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina and Virginia had one each. (You’ll notice that most colleges emphasize at least one of those high-ranking states in their out-of-state recruiting strategies.) And of those seven players who played high school football in Texas, none played at Texas or Texas A&M.
• The Opening finals, a camp presented by Nike, is held every summer and it’s invite-only for the best players in the country. This year, a record 13 players who participated in The Opening finals were drafted in the first round. If your school signs someone who got an invitation to that camp, that’s something to get excited about.
• Of the six five-star prospects selected, four went in the top seven. A prospect is given a five-star ranking because he has a naturally advanced skill set athletically, traits that simply cannot be duplicated through hard work or dedication. When those five-star prospects work hard, that’s when they turn into millionaires and Pro Bowlers.
• LSU had five players taken in the first round, and Chaisson (a Texan) was the only one of the five who was a top-250 recruit. LSU almost always signs a top-10 class, but the coaches clearly have excelled in the development phase as well.
• A side statistic while we’re on the topic of LSU: In the past 20 years, only three teams have won a national title without having signed at least one top-five recruiting class in one of the previous four years. The exceptions were 2010 Auburn, 2016 Clemson and 2018 Clemson. Those teams were led by Cam Newton Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence, respectively. This is a quarterback-driven sport, and when you have a guy like those three (and Burrow, too) leading the way, that makes up for some recruiting misses.
• There were a record 15 players selected from the SEC, followed by the Big Ten (five), Big 12 (five), ACC (three), Pac-12 (three) and Mountain West (one). Just in case there was any question as to which conference is the most talented from top-to-bottom, it’s the SEC.
