The Pre-Snap Read: MSU vs ASU
By Jim Comparoni
Michigan State moves up in weight class this week to see if its revamped offense will continue to look as good as it did last week.
Don’t expect Michigan State to put up 582 yards like it did last week, when the Spartans found open receivers all over the place while rushing for 251.
Plays that went for 15- and 25-yard chunks won’t be as available in this game. And when they aren’t available, don’t blame the play call. It’s the opponent that is different.
Arizona State held the beginnings of a terrible Michigan State offense in check last year, especially in the red zone.
ASU’s defense doesn’t look as good this year, to me, despite holding its first two opponents to 7 points apiece. But ASU is good enough on defense to create some concerns, if Michigan State reverts back to penalties or blocking gaffes that plagued the Spartans in the opener against Tulsa.
SETTING THE TABLE
* Michigan State is trying to avenge last year’s 16-13 loss at ASU, which ended on a last-second field goal at something close to 2 a.m., East Lansing time.
Michigan State led that game 13-3 going into the fourth quarter, but allowed two or three chunk plays in the late going and allowed ASU to steal victory.
* Mark Dantonio is going for win No. 110, which would break Duffy Daugherty’s record and make him Michigan State’s all-time winningest football coach.
* ASU is 2-0 after beating Kent State 30-7 in week one, and FBS opponent Sacramento State, 19-7, last week. (Sacremento State went 2-8 last year, but didn’t look athletically outclassed last week. They weren’t terrible).
THE LATEST ON MSU
* Still no news on Cole Chewins and when he might return. I heard he was close last week, but I’m not sure what that means.
AJ Arcuri tweaked his ankle late in the Western Michigan game. It’s unclear whether that tweak set his recovery back.
* Elijah Collins gave MSU’s offense a breath of fresh running ability last week. He rushed for 192 yards in his first start as a Spartan.
MSU’s other running backs, Connor Heyward and La’Darius Jefferson, have been criticized for lacking great vision as runner, along with limited elusiveness and explosiveness. Collins is noticeably more equipped in those areas. When coupled with better blocking up front (against a weaker defense like WMU’s), MSU’s dormant running game suddenly looked capable.
* Dantonio criticized MSU’s wide receivers after the first game, stating that at least one of them were not running routes with proper effort.
Michigan State woke up in that department last week. Cody White had a decent game, CJ Hayes made some plays in his first start (in place of injured Jalen Nailor) and Darrell Stewart had a career-high 185 yards receiving.
We didn’t see much of Laress Nelson. For a second straight game, we didn’t see Cam Chambers at all. I’m not sure what’s going on with Chambers.
* After a dreadful performance against Tulsa, MSU’s offensive line regained a pulse. Kevin Jarvis looked more comfortable at left tackle. Luke Campbell is back to playing with confidence at left guard. Matt Carrick played with some welcomed physicality at right guard. Jordan Reid continues to be inconsistent at right tackle.
Tight end blocking improved, after a mediocre first game.
TWO IMPRESSIONS OF ASU
1. We’ve heard all about ASU’s problems on the offensive line (a retirement, and an injury led to ASU moving its center to left tackle, and moving a true freshman to the starting center position, a position he had never played before).
ASU’s run game features a dynamic RB in Eno Benjamin, but he had no room to run last week against an FBS opponent.
ASU rushed for 91 yards on 39 carries (2.3 per try).
* In watching the the ASU-Sacrament State game, the ASU o-line wasn’t as bad as I expected. They weren’t getting physically beaten. They weren’t completely out of sorts.
What I noticed is something similar to MSU’s first game. ASU would get stopped for a 1-yard gain. I would rewind that play five times or more and watch every offensive lineman to see who got beat - and I would find that no one (usually) got beat.
Usually it was a case of an o-lineman getting out to the LB level and blocking no one (miscommunications, in other words).
While that’s a messy situation, it’s also a correctable one.
If Michigan State were a garden variety opponent, I would suggest that ASU is capable of attaining quick improvement on the offensive line and in the run game. But Michigan State is not a garden variety defensive opponent.
Michigan State ranks No. 1 in the nation in run defense. You know the crazy stats.
Michigan State is not the team you want to go against when trying to harness a level of functionality in a previously dysfunctional running attack.
ASU is likely to rush for fewer than 75 yards against the Spartans.
2. ASU’s defense was not as good as I was expecting. HOWEVER, I think ASU has the capacity to wring out a pesky level of effectiveness quite soon.
ASU played a lot of soft quarters coverage against Sacramento State.
I am pretty sure ASU was sandbagging.
Last year, ASU was more multiple on defense, and pretty problematic.
They do a good job of disguising. They may press two of your three receivers and reserve the ability to drop into man or zone.
They will have three down linemen, with three or four others crowding the line of scrimmage, and you’re not sure if four are rushing, or six, and they try to disguise which ones are rushing and which ones are dropping. They have two or three edge linebackers who are capable of doing either.
They aren’t great on defense, but their ability to shape-shift and disguise is the complete opposite of Western Michigan’s familiar, predictable fronts and coverages.
* ASU’s defense became sloppy and undisciplined in the fourth quarter of each of its first two games. However, if you look closely, you will notice players from both sides asking to check out on defense in the fourth quarter of those games. When the temperatures exceed 95 degrees, sometimes a little fatigue-based sloppiness in those environments might not repeat itself in the low 70s that are expected at Spartan Stadium on Saturday.
ASU’s defense looked casual and sloppy in the late going against Sacramento State, but I’m not ready to conclude that Michigan State will see the same type of sloppiness from the Sun Devils.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
The freshman ASU QB, Jayden Daniels, is talented. Very quick feet, good acceleration as a runner, but he doesn’t want to run. They don’t want him to run all that much.
He’ll keep it on scrambles.
He kept the ball on a zone read once or twice early in the last two games, but not much after that.
He is a slider. He will look to get down and avoid hits, and he’ll slide earlier and more carefully than most QBs you will see - which is a welcomed sight if you’re playing against him. You would rather him hit the dirt than try to slalom through your defense, which he is capable of doing.
On one occasion last week, he scrambled forward for a gain of 10 on third-and-12. A little extra move or effort, and he moves the chains on that play. On fourth-and-2, Benjamin was stopped for a gain of 1 and ASU lost possession. That was in the fourth quarter with ASU nursing a small lead.
* As a passer, he has potential. He throws a nice ball, good release, good zip. But he looks like a freshman, physically and in terms of performance.
Physically, he’s a skinny teen-ager. That leads to the careful nature of his running style.
As a passer, I rarely, rarely, rarely see him go to his second receiver, and never the third. From what I’ve seen, he’s a one read guy. He drops, makes one read, and throws to the guy who had the free release.
Can he find a second receiver? At some point he will probably be able to do that. I’m not saying he is incapable. But that doesn’t seem to be a comfort level right now.
What happens if you press all three receivers in a three-WR set and no one has a free release? What happens if you show a free release to a slot WR on defense, but make a late shift to take it away? Can he make the mental check to other receivers?
I’m sure ASU is working on those eventualities. Whether or not he is capable of managing them, without a run game, against this Michigan State defense is the key variable of this game.
Michigan State QB Brian Lewerke was asked about Daniels this week, and the difficulty of being a true freshman running an offense in college football.
Lewerke expressed his admiration for Daniels but also said he wouldn’t want to be in Daniels’ shoes this week going against a defense like MSU’s.
* ASU is going to need to execute its quick pass game and try to play keep-away. Pass protection could be iffy for ASU against MSU’s defensive front.
They will try to get the ball to Benjamin out of the backfield. He had four catches last week, including a game-cinching 72-yarder for a late TD. On that play, he ran a simple circle route over the middle on a crucial third-and-seven play with ASU’s lead having been cut to 12-7. Sacramento State’s linebacker assigned to covering Benjamin choked and didn’t cover him. Sacramento State was in a blitzing man-to-man. It was an inexcusable mistake. Benjamin caught the short pass over the middle and raced through the secondary and down the sideline for a TD.
That’s not the type of bust you are likely to see from Michigan State, ALTHOUGH last year’s ASU-Michigan State game changed on a 30-plus-yard bust when David Dowell failed to cover a RB out of the backfield on a pair of layered wheel routes. When Dowell didn’t take the RB, Khari Willis stepped up to fill that mistake but allowed the deeper wheel route to get behind him.
Michigan State isn’t perfect on defense, but probably is as close to excellent as just about any other defense you will see in the country.
Still, you don’t want to leave an opponent within two late coverage busts of beating you and stealing the game, as Michigan State did last year.
* ASU has good receivers, and a dangerous RB. But without consistent time to throw or a complementary running game, ASU might be relegated to some deep chuck-and-duck desperation throws, mixed with Michigan State mistakes, and maybe a special teams crack or two, in order for the Sun Devils to be in position to steal victory for a second straight year from Michigan State.
On defense, ASU’s best defensive tackle is bigger than most (DJ Davidson, No. 98, 6-4, 313), has long, strong arms and is a sophomore just coming into his own. Dan France type of athlete (before France settled on becoming an o-lineman). Davidson is better than I insinuated during Wednesday’s V-Cast.
Good enough to dominate inside? Nah. Good enough to make plays if you leave the gate open? Absolutely.
He’ll make a play or two but I don’t think he will be a constant disruption. But he’ll be a test. Michigan State couldn’t move guys like him in the Tulsa game. He is taller than the Tulsa guys.
ASU doesn’t have two big d-ends to go with Davidson like Tulsa did. ASU goes a little thinner and quicker with d-ends. Michigan State will try to run right at those guys, and if Michigan State truly has become halfway decent in the run game, then they should have success in moving ASU’s d-ends off the line of scrimmage on off-tackle plays. That will be an interesting test.
* ASU has a slowish inside linebacker.
* Their DBs are capable, but sloppy.
* Their punter might be the best in America. Their kicker is a replacement for injury but was 4-of-4 on field goals last week and is just fine. They have a nifty punt returner who went for about 40 last week; he is also their best WR, Brandon Aiyuk. He is a Darrell Stewart type, maybe niftier.
On defense, ASU runs a 3-3-5, but it’s not an every-down, standard 3-3-5 like Tulsa.
Tulsa had a legit nose guard playing a zero shade in a standard 30 on most downs.
ASU will usually have three down linemen, but they aren’t in a standard 30. They usually have two DTs playing the same way they would play ina 4-3, with a one-technique nose and a three-technique DT. And then there is one standard d-end, and then the other d-end is often a stand-up linebacker (but that guy might put his hand in the dirt at times, and give you a standard 40 front).
What does this mean for Michigan State? It means their defensive linemen are usually going to be lined up in the areas that is familiar for Michigan State blockers.
I’ve mentioned in recent days that Michigan State regularly has problems run-blocking against standard 30 fronts, and the Tulsa game was no different. I don’t have a reason for this, other than the left-handed unfamiliarity of it. It shouldn’t be that way, but it seems to be that way.
THE CONCERN FOR MSU:
Here’s one of my biggest questions of the game. ASU hasn’t played a lot of standard, zero-shade, heavyweight 30 front this year on defense. They don’t quite have as many heavyweight guys on their d-line to play three guys with two-gapping power, like Tulsa.
I’m not expecting ASU to play a lot of standard 30, the type of front that gives Michigan State some left-handed trouble.
HOWEVER, just because ASU hasn’t done a lot of that this year doesn’t mean they won’t change to more of that type of front in this game. ASU is multiple. How multiple? That’s a little bit of a variable.
That’s my concern: Is ASU able to shape-shift itself on defense and ramp up and play even better defense for this game and this opponent than I’ve seen out of them to this point? That’s always a point of mystery in September. We don’t yet know everything we need to know about these teams.
I’m not going to sit here and say that ASU’s 3-3-5 plays just like a standard 4-3, and Michigan State won’t have any problems with it. That’s the way they played most of the game vs Sacramento State, but I can’t guarantee that will be the case. On a key fourth-and-2 late in the game last week, ASU changed to a standard 30, with Davidson playing a true nose. (QB rolled out and easily could have picked up the first down with his feet but instead forced an INT).
ASU might alter their defense for this game against Michigan State, and this opponent. ASU’s first two opponents were soft enough for ASU to stay vanilla on defense without much sweat.
Last year, ASU had more beef on the d-line and played more of a standard 30. They were light with one of their d-ends, but Michigan State was never able to isolate him and take advantage.
Last year, Michigan State had problems at the center position with Tyler Higby trying to play that role. He matched up against Renell Wren, a legit NFL Draft pick d-tackle, and gave up two or three crucial plays in the red zone which had a major hand in Michigan State failing to put ASU way prior to the start of the fourth quarter.
Wren is gone to the NFL. Davidson has taken his place. Davidson is going to be good some day, but he won’t be as good on this night as Wren was last year. As questionable as MSU’s o-line was two weeks ago, they won’t be as bad on Saturday night as they were at the center position in Tempe last year.
* Based on everything we saw last week, Michigan State should match up well with ASU, handcuff this freshman QB. From there, Michigan State will need to keep a lid on explosive plays from Benjamin and ASU’s decent crop of receivers.
ASU will have a puncher’s chance to land a shot or two, like Western Michigan did. Michigan State should be able to withstand that.
On the other half of this matchup, ASU’s defense is good enough once again to hold LAST YEAR’s Michigan State offense under 17 points.
The question is whether MSU’s offense, healthier and more diverse in 2019, is ready to score 21 or more, or 31 or more?
MORE ON ASU’S DEFENSE
* They stunt more than most Michigan State opponents. They stunt more than any 30-front team you’ll see. That’s a unique characteristic for this team.
If ASU in fact plays more of a standard 30 front, with a true nose and two five-techniques, then Michigan State will not only be confronted with the left-handed aspect of facing an unfamiliar front, Michigan State will have more puzzles to prepare for when the stunts and twists are added to the equation.
Is it good for Michigan State that the Spartans already faced a 30 front team in Tulsa? Sure. But, like Dantonio said on Tuesday, and I said earlier in this article, it’s not the same type of 3-3-5 that Tulsa played.
* Tulsa was a strange combination on defense. They rushed 3 and dropped 8 way more than most opponents you will see. But they also sent six-man blitzes with regularity.
I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a defense be as consistently 180 degrees different with their scheme the way Tulsa was. They were either all-in with a blitz, or all back with eight in coverage. And it worked.
GAME WITHIN THE GAME: Collins Pass Pro
ASU didn’t blitz a lot vs Sacramento State. But I’m expecting that they will change that up against Michigan State, and show more potential blitzers at the line of scrimmage against the Spartans, like they did last year. They might show six potential blitzers at the line, then drop all but four. Then show the same look on the next play, and bring all six.
This makes things unnerving for the blockers, especially the RB assigned to help find potential blitzers.
Elijah Collins’ weakness last year was blitz pick-up and pass protection. He has improved in that area. Michigan State had him on the field for some pass pro assignments last week and he looked okay. Not as good as La’Darius Jefferson or Connor Heyward, but he looked okay.
If he is going to become the feature back in this offense, he’ll have to remain “okay,” or better, in pass pro, in order for the entire unit to continue to function well. ASU will test the heck out of Collins’ ability to find the proper blitz threat and stalemate him.
The combination of Collins’ unproven nature in this aspect of the game, and ASU’s capacity to disguise rushers and make you account for six or seven at the line of scrimmage when only three, four or five might be coming, makes for an interesting test for the redshirt freshman RB.
ASU OFFENSIVE MACRO
* ASU usually operates out of the shot gun. I didn’t see any breakneck pace of play with them.
* They will occasionally have the QB operate under center. In short-yardage, they might go I-formation, but I would expect play action passing out of them in short yardage if they show I-formation against Michigan State.
* Their quick-pass game is going to be ASU’s mode of operation on offense.
Their first play of the game vs Sac State was a nice little throwback tunnel screen to their top WR, Aiyuk, for a gain of 24.
The same play went for a 77-yard TD against Kent State.
They will need more of that variety against Michigan State. Michigan State will need to be aware of it and keep a lid on it.
That play won’t get out when Michigan State is in quarters zone (but other windows will be open).
That play is more likely to get out if Michigan State is in man-to-man.
Rock, paper, scissors.
* They ran one play of Wildcat with Benjamin at QB. It gained 1 yard. Third play of the game.
* ASU was 0-for-3 in the red zone through the first 35 minutes of the game, including two FGs and a fumble at the goal line by a freshman WR.
* When ASU tried to run the ball inside the 10-yard line, they went with an inside zone, and they went with a G-lead (front side gaurd pulling). But that pulling guard ran past the initial threat he was supposed to block (like Michigan State vs Tulsa).
On another red zone run failure, the starting TE (87) missed a block on the outside linebacker, who side-stepped him. Again, like Michigan State vs Tulsa.
On a fourth-and-two stoppage out of the I-formation in the second half, ASU used freshman LB Elijan Juarez (6-4, 240) as a fullback. He blocked the wrong guy (meaning that two ASU players ended up on one linebacker while the other linebacker came up free to make the tackle).
On a third-and-1 in the 1Q last week, Benjamin was stopped for no gain on an inside zone. The second-string TE (88) missed a block on that play.
[Again, much like MSU’s miscommunication sloppiness against Tulsa.]
Dantonio lit a fire under those blockers after game one, and achieved results in game two against a middleweight opponent. The Michigan State o-line is confident. Now they need to do it again.
Is ASU capable of making similar improvements? They have had more of a revolving door of personnel up front, and their task is going to be more difficult - especially against this Michigan State defensive front.
This isn’t the right week for ASU’s blocking and run game to get on track.
* Last year, ASU threw for 380 yards behind senior QB Manny Wilkins. The vast majority of those came in the fourth quarter. MSU’s per-pass attempt average last year wasn’t all that bad. ASU had to abandon the run and pass on every down. MSU’s failure came in the inability of its offense to possess the ball and/or finish in the red zone. But 380 is still 380 and ASU will be looking for the same holes again this year.
**
ASU OFFENSE PERSONNEL
5 QB JAYDEN DANIELS (6-3, 175, San Bernadino, Calif.)
* Was the No. 2-ranked dual threat QB in the country last year by Rivals.com and the No. 7 player in California.
* He also visited Cal, UCLA and Utah.
* Was one of four true freshman QBs to start in week one, nationwide.
* Thin neck, looks like a high school kid.
* Is the first ASU QB to throw for TD passes of more than 70 yards in consecutive weeks. He hit the RB Benjamin for 72 yards on a short pass that got out big. He hooked up with WR Brandon Aiyuk for a 77-yard TD against Kent State.
+ Very good wheels. Is not willing to take contact as a runner. But accelerates real well after deciding to run.
+ He did score on a 1-yard zone read keeper against Kent State. So that play is in the package. They don’t want to use it a lot but he’s quick if and when they go to it.
* Good quickness when eluding in the pocket. Side-stepping to safety.
- Is a one-read thrower. Has not yet shown good decision-making ability.
* Was 15 of 24 for 284 with 2 TDs and 0 INTs vs Kent State.
* 17 of 27 for 304 with 1 TD and 0 INTs vs Sacramento State. 242 of his yards last week came in the second half, adjusting when the run game wasn’t working.
- Missed an open receiver on a 12 yard out while on the move as part of a designed roll-out. With his speed and arm, being able to throw accurately while on the run is something he will need to do to take his game up a level.
+ Good pass to freshman RB AJ Carter, staring into a heavy blitz, found the right receiver on a crossing route at the goal line. Good poise in the pocket to make a good throw. But Carter fumbled at the goal line. Replays show it should have been ruled a TD and an early 10-0 lead.
* ASU allowed five sacks to Kent State.
* Coach Herm Edwards said after that game ASU wants to take more deep shots. We haven’t yet seen them do that, but Michigan State is expecting it. Michigan State expected it last week, too, but WMU didn’t go deep often.
* Back-up QBs
Dillon Sterling-Cole, R-Jr. (6-3, 219)
* Threw for 388 yards as a freshman in 2016.
* Didn’t see action in 2017.
* Saw brief action last year and rushed two times for 22 yards.
* Accounted for 302 yards while starting at QB against Oregon as a true freshman in 2016.
Joey Yellen (6-3, 210), R-Fr.
* three-star, No. 57 in California.
* Apparently had an offer from Georgia, in addition to Washington State and Yale.
RUNNING BACKS
3 RB ENO BENJAMIN (5-10, 210, Jr., Wylie, Texas)
* Third-team All-America last year.
* Rushed for 1,642 yards (ranking No. 5 nationally) and 16 TDs last year.
* 102 yards on 22 carries vs Kent State.
* 69 yards on 24 carries last week vs Sac State.
* Last year he rushed for at least 100 yards on nine occasions.
* Dynamic talent, but even the great ones need good blocking. He didn’t get good blocking last week.
* 72-yard catch-and-run TD last week showed his acceleration and game-breaking ability.
* Back-up RB AJ Carter, a sophomore, fumbled at the goal line last week. He dropped a short pass inside the 10-yard line against Kent State.
* Back-up RB Isaiah Floyd, 5-7, 176, a junior college transfer, had 5 rushes for 13 yards last week.
Floyd had 34 yards on six rushes against Kent State.
WIDE RECEIVERS
2 WR BRANDON AIYUK (6-1, 206, Sr., Rocklin, Calif.)
* Junior college transfer in his second year at ASU.
* Also visited Kansas. Had offers from Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State.
* Had four receptions for 98 yards last week.
+ 24-yard catch and run on a throwback tunnel screen on the first play of the game last week.
+ Excellent run-after-the-catch guy, like Darrell Stewart.
+ Deep play action post late in the 3q to gain 48. ASU went with max protection for that deep shot.
* Was open on a deep double move to the corner last week, but Daniels overthrew him.
* Good punt returner. Had an exciting one last week for about 35 yards.
10 WR KYLE WILLIAMS (5-11, 192, Sr., Murrieta, Calif.)
* Excellent “number two” wide receiver for ASU.
* Had 66 catches for 763 yards as a sophomore in 2017.
* Had 44 catches for 449 last year.
* Not off to a blazing start this year. Six catches for 49 yards on the year thus far.
+ Last week, his biggest play was a slot out on third-and-three in the first quarter. Aiyuk ran a slant as the outside WR which ran interference for Williams to get open on the slot out.
* He was ASU’s most productive WR against Michigan State last year. He had seven catches for 104 yards including a turning-point 38-yarder, capitalizing on the David Dowell mistake which started ASU’s game-tying TD drive.
84 FRANK DARBY (6-1, 200, Jr., Jersey City, NJ)
* had 21 catches last year.
* he has four catches on the year for 98 yards.
+ Had a 68-yard TD called back last week. He was covered when the QB threw it but Daniesl threw him open.
8 WR Jordan Kerley (6-2, 184, Austin, Texas)
- Dropped a pass on third-and-two last week, a shallow crossing route that would have gone for at least 10. Looked tentative, short-arming it.
OFFENSIVE LINE
* You have probably heard about their revolving door situation on the offensive front.
A senior left tackle retired.
They moved their all-conference center to left tackle.
They put a senior in at center. But then he went down with a broken foot just a few days prior to the Kent State game.
So they had to put a true freshman in at center.
This is what they are left with, and they don’t look bad as individuals, to me, except maybe the left guard.
LT 73 COHL CABRAL (6-5, 304, Sr., Ranco Cucamonga, Calif.)
* Second team All-Pac 12 at center last year.
My check list on him last week:
- erred in not blocking back on LG power, letting a free avenue for no gain on a Wildcat last week.
- erred again in not sealing a block back assignment for the pulling LG next to him again. (This is the same error Kevin Jarvis had on a TFL on Connor Heyward that we showed in the Film Room, earlier this week).
- Left side LT and LG poor job of filtering out stunting five-man rush, nearly giving up a sack for a safety midway through the 2Q. That’s supposed to be the experienced side.
- Zone right, with the angle didn’t close out on the slanting DT.
+ Good job getting the DE hooked on an outside zone for Floyd for a gain of 8 in the 4Q last week.
* Overall, this guy has a great reputation and no doubt was a terrific center but he seems to be having a more difficult time moving to LT than Kevin Jarvis is. But the potential is there for quick improvement.
LG 56 ALEX LOSOYA (6-3, 291, Sr., Santa Ana, Calif.)
* Started eight games last year.
* Does not look like a returning starter this year.
- Not physical for a senior. When two-gapping, you can push him back. MSU’s d-tackles should do well against him.
C 61 C DOHNOVAN WEST (6-3, 277, Fr., Mission Hills, Calif.)
- Bad shot gun snap on third-and-goal last week, had to settle for a field goal.
* I don’t see him getting physically dominated and making major mistakes. But he isn’t finishing the little things, like getting out to the MLB to help an outside zone play go.
* Good potential having to play too early, like Travis Jackson at Michigan State a few years ago.
* I don’t see him as a major weakness, play-in and play-out. Is he consistently reliable? Probably not.
RG 50 JARRELL BELL (6-5, 299, R-Fr., Norco, Calif.)
* No opinion, other than he doesn’t have a good feel for combo blocking.
* A RG/RT double team on an outside zone with 12:44 left last week seemed high and half-hearted.
RT 71 STEVE MILLER (6-4, 307, Sr., Gibert, Ariz.)
* No opinion, but I like his music.
TIGHT ENDS
87 TOMMY HUDSON (6-5, 255, Sr., San Jose)
88 NOLAN MATHEWS (6-5, 246, Fr.,)
They are inconsistent blockers. Michigan State has problems in that area too but MSU’s are better blockers right now.
* Matthews had a nice catch-and-run off a counter boot drag route for 13 yards last week.
- Mathews dropped a 6-yard hitch last week.
* Their tight ends are on the field a lot, but aren't used in the passing game much, and they aren't strong blockers. That's a net negative for the system.
DEFENSIVE PERSONNEL
* ASU coaches said their defense missed 16 tackles against Kent State, with most coming in one drive in the fourth quarter.
* Their pass coverage had a few gaffes late in the game last week. Casual, undisciplined.
* Does this team have a problem staying focused on finishing? Leadership problems? I don’t know.
DEFENSIVE LINE
* 3-man front.
* Lots of twists and stunts, which is rare for a 30 front.
* Sometimes they will stunt into a two-gap, which is very rare these days.
DT 98 DJ DAVIDSON (6-4, 313, Soph., Mesa, Ariz.)
* Vs sac state: five tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks.
* Decent lateral movement, TFL last week on a sack, QB vacated early, good lateral movement to react to it.
+ Good quickness into the backfield to wrap up RB for TFL when LG and LT vacated to pull. Center trying to cut him off couldn’t get to him.
* Long, strong arms.
+ sack powering through the RT on a DT twist. Long, strong arms to disengage.
* Plays hard, which I think will help him get all-conference mention at some point in his career. Right now he’s pretty solid, not great. Not a game-changer, I don’t think. Not yet. But MSU’s interior blockers aren’t great. So this is an interesting tilt.
Matt Carrick and Luke Campbell are coming off of pretty good games against lesser competition. We will see whether Carrick can continue to play with physicality when the come a little bit bigger.
Campbell is feeling good about himself and the game again. Big week for him to keep that momentum going. Michigan State needs it from him.
DL 90 JERMAINE LOLE (6-2, 284, Soph., Long Beach, Calif.)
* No opinion.
DE 17 GEORGE LEA (6-3, 284, New Orleans)
+ QB hit on a three man rush, stunt on 3-7 in 1Q last week. Bowled over an unsuspecting center on his way to the QB
* Not bad. Active. Decent player. Some physicality, some lateral quickness, decent motor.
They roll two deep on the d-line.
(97 Shannon Foreman, 6-2, 293, Jr.)
* Off the bench.
* Decent pursuit speed to the sideline
+ Good job one-gapping the center to stop a fourth-and-1 QB sneak last week.
(95 DE Roe Wilkins, 6-4, 273, Sour Lake, Texas)
(91 Michael Matus, 6-2, 253, R-Fr., Katy, Texas)
* No opinion. Had a TFL last week when left unblocked.
* Overall, the d-line is packaged just well enough to stay afloat. There wouldn’t be enough enough here to give Michigan State a good allotment of d-linemen in a 4-3, but ASU is gettin by. Maybe I’m underrating them. We’ll find out.
Overall Tulsa had more quality big guys on the d-line than ASU.
LINEBACKERS: The Disguise Guys
20 OLB KHAYLAN KEARSE-THOMAS (6-1, 224, Sr.)
* Coaches named him defensive MVP of the Kent State game.
* Will line up as a down DE.
* Plays in the slot in pass defense.
* Blind side sack cause fumble vs Kent State.
* He’s one of those guys who can come up and threaten to join the pass rush, or drop quickly into coverage. You can disguise things with him, and that’s part of what ASU is going to want to do against Michigan State, something Michigan State needs to show it can solve.
37 OLB DARIEN BUTLER (5-11, 242, Soph., Harbor City, Calif.)
* Captain as a sophomore.
+ Laid out to pounce on QB on a zone read, like Tarzan, last week for no gain on third-and-three in 1Q. That play made you rewind.
+ Good pass rush for a sack as a stand-up DE, forcing a fumble in the fourth quarter last week.
+ Good speed, good hands to defeat the left tackle, good body lean in running the hoop, and a dangerous dive into the back of the QB’s knees. Fearsome play.
MSU’s left tackles aren’t great right now, but better than the left tackle for Sac State on this play. The LT for Sac State lumbered, and it was late in the game so he looked tired. Butler isn’t an every-down pass rusher, so he was fresh.
* He’s another guy who might be rushing, or might be covering. He’s a diguise guy.
To an extent, disguising blitzes is true of all linebackers. But with ASU and their three-man front, they almost always have SOMEONE rushing from the “back eight.” At least one LB needs to join the rush to give them a standard four-man rush. Any one of three or four guys will come up and threaten to the be fourth man. Or maybe all seven are coming.
They didn’t do a lot of this last week. But I’m expecting to see it this week. It bothered Michigan State last year.
ILB 8 MERLIN ROBERTSON (6-3, 251, Soph., Gardena, Calif.)
- Did not look like he pursued smoothly, quickly, and didn’t get off a block on fly sweep early in the game last week.
- Continued to play a half step slow and stiff. Kind of tip-toes into his breakdown.
- Missed a tackle on a third-and-three on the edge.
* Solid hitter when it lands in his lap but stiff in space.
* How to take advantage? When ASU is caught in man-to-man, Lewerke can outrun this guy on a tuck-and-run scramble keeper.
(54 Case Hatch, 6-1, 226, Fr. Gilbert Ariz.)
* Solid second-stringer, motor, active, young Chase Kline type.
* Decent edge rush, running the hoop.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: Loading, Gambling, Biting
* These DBs run well, but it seems to me that they are not under control when converging to play the ball or help on a tackle. It’s like they are going for the spectacular hit, or the spectacular pass break-up and they leave themselves on thin ice.
Not the most disciplined group. They will make mistakes, but they can also make the fantastic play.
* Some of their coverages can be tricky and advanced. On a coverage sack in the 3Q last week, safety 15 Cam Phillips ran with a motioning WR and played man to man. The rest of the secondary played deep quarters zone. Four man rush with DE dropping, zone blitz exotic.
21 CB JACK JONES (5-11, 170, Jr., Long Beach, Calif.)
* This guy is a little bit of loose cannon. Talented, but not sure he is trustworthy.
* Started 14 games for USC in 2017 for a team that won the Pac-12. Led USC with four interceptions.
* He transferred to Moorpark Junior College in 2018. According to his ASU bio, it doesn’t look like he played at Moorpark last year.
* He arrived at ASU this year with two years of eligibility remaining. He was a Top 20 national JUCO recruit.
- Aggressively went for a pass break up, misjudged it and allowed a 15-yard comeback on a third-and-seven last week.
+ Decent pass break up , with a cushion, arriving at the ball at the catch to dislodge the ball, playing zone, came off of No. 1 WR to hit No. 2
*Decent job in off coverage jumping a route over the back for a pass break-up.
- He bit on a Sac State flood of wheel routes and let WR get behind him for 41 yards. He bit on the fly sweep fake and let the deeper of two wheels get behind him.
5 CB KOBE WILLIAMS (5-10, 174, Sr., Long Beach, Calif.)
* Juco transfer from Long Beach CC.
+ Good pass break up on a comeback midway through the 2q. QB telegraphed it
23 TYLER WHILEY (6-0, 205, Sr., Scottsdale, Ariz.)
* Listed as a linebacker but plays safety.
* He and Fields load up as ambitious hitters, often times they are successful, sometimes they get sloppy.
* Sloppy with pursuit angles, makes him susceptible to missing tackles, overrunning tackles.
* He was tested deep last week and left a WR open by a step but Sac State’s QB overthrew him.
- Coverage bust on slant hesitation-and-go for an 11-yard TD pass which cut ASU’s lead to 12-7 with 6:20 to play last week. Cam Phillips, at the LB level, also failed in failing to reroute the WR during the slant portion of the slant and go.
Phillips and Whiley were standing and looking at each other trying to figure out whose fault it was as the slot WR crossed the goal line for the TD.
6 S EVAN FIELDS (6-1, 190, Jr., Oklahoma City)
* He plays the (Pat) Tillman safety position.
+ Aggressive, full-tilt run support safety.
15 S CAM PHILLIPS (6-1, 175, Fr., Houston)
* Interception with 1:54 left effectively sealed the game last week.
* Pretty good open field tackle early in the 2H last week to stop a bubble screen.
+ Good hit on the ball after a 6-yard reception resulted in a fumble in the 4Q last week with ASU leading 12-0. Sacramento State recovered.
* Good hitter.
16 S AASHARI CROSSWELL (6-0, 196, Soph., Long Beach, Calif.)
- Missed tackle on a bubble screen, coming forward too fast, maybe loading up.
ADD IT ALL UP
If both teams play their B game and there are no game-breaking plays on special teams or via strange-bound turnovers, then Michigan State should be 14 points better than ASU. Of course there are almost always special teams factors and turnovers. If those factors are even, Michigan State should remain two touchdowns better.
After saying that, I looked at the betting line for the first time this week, just now, and it’s -14.5. So I’m not sure there’s a lot of value either way on this game.
MSU is the better tackling team and, believe it or not, the better blocking team.
One or two ASU writers whom I respect think it is very unlikely for ASU to win this game.
Ron “Big Moobie” Armstrong, a former Michigan State player from the Perles era and a keen observer of today’s program and my guest on the Skull Session Podcasts, says he doesn’t see Michigan State losing this game.
I don’t disagree with those people. But in a small September sample size, it can be dangerous to assume victory any time two bowl-caliber Power Five programs meet on the field. Michigan State won’t be assuming victory. The Spartans need to work, and they have the type of culture and leadership that should yield constructive gains.
If ASU’s disguises on defense keep Michigan State off-balance, and their risk-taking athletes in the back end win most of their gambles and don’t have bad bites, then this game could stay in the teens on the scoreboard heading into the fourth quarter and there for ASU’s stealing (again).
But I doubt ASU can do enough to win this game. Michigan State would have to lose it. I think Michigan State is on solid ground mentally and physically to handle this business.
By Jim Comparoni
Michigan State moves up in weight class this week to see if its revamped offense will continue to look as good as it did last week.
Don’t expect Michigan State to put up 582 yards like it did last week, when the Spartans found open receivers all over the place while rushing for 251.
Plays that went for 15- and 25-yard chunks won’t be as available in this game. And when they aren’t available, don’t blame the play call. It’s the opponent that is different.
Arizona State held the beginnings of a terrible Michigan State offense in check last year, especially in the red zone.
ASU’s defense doesn’t look as good this year, to me, despite holding its first two opponents to 7 points apiece. But ASU is good enough on defense to create some concerns, if Michigan State reverts back to penalties or blocking gaffes that plagued the Spartans in the opener against Tulsa.
SETTING THE TABLE
* Michigan State is trying to avenge last year’s 16-13 loss at ASU, which ended on a last-second field goal at something close to 2 a.m., East Lansing time.
Michigan State led that game 13-3 going into the fourth quarter, but allowed two or three chunk plays in the late going and allowed ASU to steal victory.
* Mark Dantonio is going for win No. 110, which would break Duffy Daugherty’s record and make him Michigan State’s all-time winningest football coach.
* ASU is 2-0 after beating Kent State 30-7 in week one, and FBS opponent Sacramento State, 19-7, last week. (Sacremento State went 2-8 last year, but didn’t look athletically outclassed last week. They weren’t terrible).
THE LATEST ON MSU
* Still no news on Cole Chewins and when he might return. I heard he was close last week, but I’m not sure what that means.
AJ Arcuri tweaked his ankle late in the Western Michigan game. It’s unclear whether that tweak set his recovery back.
* Elijah Collins gave MSU’s offense a breath of fresh running ability last week. He rushed for 192 yards in his first start as a Spartan.
MSU’s other running backs, Connor Heyward and La’Darius Jefferson, have been criticized for lacking great vision as runner, along with limited elusiveness and explosiveness. Collins is noticeably more equipped in those areas. When coupled with better blocking up front (against a weaker defense like WMU’s), MSU’s dormant running game suddenly looked capable.
* Dantonio criticized MSU’s wide receivers after the first game, stating that at least one of them were not running routes with proper effort.
Michigan State woke up in that department last week. Cody White had a decent game, CJ Hayes made some plays in his first start (in place of injured Jalen Nailor) and Darrell Stewart had a career-high 185 yards receiving.
We didn’t see much of Laress Nelson. For a second straight game, we didn’t see Cam Chambers at all. I’m not sure what’s going on with Chambers.
* After a dreadful performance against Tulsa, MSU’s offensive line regained a pulse. Kevin Jarvis looked more comfortable at left tackle. Luke Campbell is back to playing with confidence at left guard. Matt Carrick played with some welcomed physicality at right guard. Jordan Reid continues to be inconsistent at right tackle.
Tight end blocking improved, after a mediocre first game.
TWO IMPRESSIONS OF ASU
1. We’ve heard all about ASU’s problems on the offensive line (a retirement, and an injury led to ASU moving its center to left tackle, and moving a true freshman to the starting center position, a position he had never played before).
ASU’s run game features a dynamic RB in Eno Benjamin, but he had no room to run last week against an FBS opponent.
ASU rushed for 91 yards on 39 carries (2.3 per try).
* In watching the the ASU-Sacrament State game, the ASU o-line wasn’t as bad as I expected. They weren’t getting physically beaten. They weren’t completely out of sorts.
What I noticed is something similar to MSU’s first game. ASU would get stopped for a 1-yard gain. I would rewind that play five times or more and watch every offensive lineman to see who got beat - and I would find that no one (usually) got beat.
Usually it was a case of an o-lineman getting out to the LB level and blocking no one (miscommunications, in other words).
While that’s a messy situation, it’s also a correctable one.
If Michigan State were a garden variety opponent, I would suggest that ASU is capable of attaining quick improvement on the offensive line and in the run game. But Michigan State is not a garden variety defensive opponent.
Michigan State ranks No. 1 in the nation in run defense. You know the crazy stats.
Michigan State is not the team you want to go against when trying to harness a level of functionality in a previously dysfunctional running attack.
ASU is likely to rush for fewer than 75 yards against the Spartans.
2. ASU’s defense was not as good as I was expecting. HOWEVER, I think ASU has the capacity to wring out a pesky level of effectiveness quite soon.
ASU played a lot of soft quarters coverage against Sacramento State.
I am pretty sure ASU was sandbagging.
Last year, ASU was more multiple on defense, and pretty problematic.
They do a good job of disguising. They may press two of your three receivers and reserve the ability to drop into man or zone.
They will have three down linemen, with three or four others crowding the line of scrimmage, and you’re not sure if four are rushing, or six, and they try to disguise which ones are rushing and which ones are dropping. They have two or three edge linebackers who are capable of doing either.
They aren’t great on defense, but their ability to shape-shift and disguise is the complete opposite of Western Michigan’s familiar, predictable fronts and coverages.
* ASU’s defense became sloppy and undisciplined in the fourth quarter of each of its first two games. However, if you look closely, you will notice players from both sides asking to check out on defense in the fourth quarter of those games. When the temperatures exceed 95 degrees, sometimes a little fatigue-based sloppiness in those environments might not repeat itself in the low 70s that are expected at Spartan Stadium on Saturday.
ASU’s defense looked casual and sloppy in the late going against Sacramento State, but I’m not ready to conclude that Michigan State will see the same type of sloppiness from the Sun Devils.
FINAL ANALYSIS FIRST
The freshman ASU QB, Jayden Daniels, is talented. Very quick feet, good acceleration as a runner, but he doesn’t want to run. They don’t want him to run all that much.
He’ll keep it on scrambles.
He kept the ball on a zone read once or twice early in the last two games, but not much after that.
He is a slider. He will look to get down and avoid hits, and he’ll slide earlier and more carefully than most QBs you will see - which is a welcomed sight if you’re playing against him. You would rather him hit the dirt than try to slalom through your defense, which he is capable of doing.
On one occasion last week, he scrambled forward for a gain of 10 on third-and-12. A little extra move or effort, and he moves the chains on that play. On fourth-and-2, Benjamin was stopped for a gain of 1 and ASU lost possession. That was in the fourth quarter with ASU nursing a small lead.
* As a passer, he has potential. He throws a nice ball, good release, good zip. But he looks like a freshman, physically and in terms of performance.
Physically, he’s a skinny teen-ager. That leads to the careful nature of his running style.
As a passer, I rarely, rarely, rarely see him go to his second receiver, and never the third. From what I’ve seen, he’s a one read guy. He drops, makes one read, and throws to the guy who had the free release.
Can he find a second receiver? At some point he will probably be able to do that. I’m not saying he is incapable. But that doesn’t seem to be a comfort level right now.
What happens if you press all three receivers in a three-WR set and no one has a free release? What happens if you show a free release to a slot WR on defense, but make a late shift to take it away? Can he make the mental check to other receivers?
I’m sure ASU is working on those eventualities. Whether or not he is capable of managing them, without a run game, against this Michigan State defense is the key variable of this game.
Michigan State QB Brian Lewerke was asked about Daniels this week, and the difficulty of being a true freshman running an offense in college football.
Lewerke expressed his admiration for Daniels but also said he wouldn’t want to be in Daniels’ shoes this week going against a defense like MSU’s.
* ASU is going to need to execute its quick pass game and try to play keep-away. Pass protection could be iffy for ASU against MSU’s defensive front.
They will try to get the ball to Benjamin out of the backfield. He had four catches last week, including a game-cinching 72-yarder for a late TD. On that play, he ran a simple circle route over the middle on a crucial third-and-seven play with ASU’s lead having been cut to 12-7. Sacramento State’s linebacker assigned to covering Benjamin choked and didn’t cover him. Sacramento State was in a blitzing man-to-man. It was an inexcusable mistake. Benjamin caught the short pass over the middle and raced through the secondary and down the sideline for a TD.
That’s not the type of bust you are likely to see from Michigan State, ALTHOUGH last year’s ASU-Michigan State game changed on a 30-plus-yard bust when David Dowell failed to cover a RB out of the backfield on a pair of layered wheel routes. When Dowell didn’t take the RB, Khari Willis stepped up to fill that mistake but allowed the deeper wheel route to get behind him.
Michigan State isn’t perfect on defense, but probably is as close to excellent as just about any other defense you will see in the country.
Still, you don’t want to leave an opponent within two late coverage busts of beating you and stealing the game, as Michigan State did last year.
* ASU has good receivers, and a dangerous RB. But without consistent time to throw or a complementary running game, ASU might be relegated to some deep chuck-and-duck desperation throws, mixed with Michigan State mistakes, and maybe a special teams crack or two, in order for the Sun Devils to be in position to steal victory for a second straight year from Michigan State.
On defense, ASU’s best defensive tackle is bigger than most (DJ Davidson, No. 98, 6-4, 313), has long, strong arms and is a sophomore just coming into his own. Dan France type of athlete (before France settled on becoming an o-lineman). Davidson is better than I insinuated during Wednesday’s V-Cast.
Good enough to dominate inside? Nah. Good enough to make plays if you leave the gate open? Absolutely.
He’ll make a play or two but I don’t think he will be a constant disruption. But he’ll be a test. Michigan State couldn’t move guys like him in the Tulsa game. He is taller than the Tulsa guys.
ASU doesn’t have two big d-ends to go with Davidson like Tulsa did. ASU goes a little thinner and quicker with d-ends. Michigan State will try to run right at those guys, and if Michigan State truly has become halfway decent in the run game, then they should have success in moving ASU’s d-ends off the line of scrimmage on off-tackle plays. That will be an interesting test.
* ASU has a slowish inside linebacker.
* Their DBs are capable, but sloppy.
* Their punter might be the best in America. Their kicker is a replacement for injury but was 4-of-4 on field goals last week and is just fine. They have a nifty punt returner who went for about 40 last week; he is also their best WR, Brandon Aiyuk. He is a Darrell Stewart type, maybe niftier.
On defense, ASU runs a 3-3-5, but it’s not an every-down, standard 3-3-5 like Tulsa.
Tulsa had a legit nose guard playing a zero shade in a standard 30 on most downs.
ASU will usually have three down linemen, but they aren’t in a standard 30. They usually have two DTs playing the same way they would play ina 4-3, with a one-technique nose and a three-technique DT. And then there is one standard d-end, and then the other d-end is often a stand-up linebacker (but that guy might put his hand in the dirt at times, and give you a standard 40 front).
What does this mean for Michigan State? It means their defensive linemen are usually going to be lined up in the areas that is familiar for Michigan State blockers.
I’ve mentioned in recent days that Michigan State regularly has problems run-blocking against standard 30 fronts, and the Tulsa game was no different. I don’t have a reason for this, other than the left-handed unfamiliarity of it. It shouldn’t be that way, but it seems to be that way.
THE CONCERN FOR MSU:
Here’s one of my biggest questions of the game. ASU hasn’t played a lot of standard, zero-shade, heavyweight 30 front this year on defense. They don’t quite have as many heavyweight guys on their d-line to play three guys with two-gapping power, like Tulsa.
I’m not expecting ASU to play a lot of standard 30, the type of front that gives Michigan State some left-handed trouble.
HOWEVER, just because ASU hasn’t done a lot of that this year doesn’t mean they won’t change to more of that type of front in this game. ASU is multiple. How multiple? That’s a little bit of a variable.
That’s my concern: Is ASU able to shape-shift itself on defense and ramp up and play even better defense for this game and this opponent than I’ve seen out of them to this point? That’s always a point of mystery in September. We don’t yet know everything we need to know about these teams.
I’m not going to sit here and say that ASU’s 3-3-5 plays just like a standard 4-3, and Michigan State won’t have any problems with it. That’s the way they played most of the game vs Sacramento State, but I can’t guarantee that will be the case. On a key fourth-and-2 late in the game last week, ASU changed to a standard 30, with Davidson playing a true nose. (QB rolled out and easily could have picked up the first down with his feet but instead forced an INT).
ASU might alter their defense for this game against Michigan State, and this opponent. ASU’s first two opponents were soft enough for ASU to stay vanilla on defense without much sweat.
Last year, ASU had more beef on the d-line and played more of a standard 30. They were light with one of their d-ends, but Michigan State was never able to isolate him and take advantage.
Last year, Michigan State had problems at the center position with Tyler Higby trying to play that role. He matched up against Renell Wren, a legit NFL Draft pick d-tackle, and gave up two or three crucial plays in the red zone which had a major hand in Michigan State failing to put ASU way prior to the start of the fourth quarter.
Wren is gone to the NFL. Davidson has taken his place. Davidson is going to be good some day, but he won’t be as good on this night as Wren was last year. As questionable as MSU’s o-line was two weeks ago, they won’t be as bad on Saturday night as they were at the center position in Tempe last year.
* Based on everything we saw last week, Michigan State should match up well with ASU, handcuff this freshman QB. From there, Michigan State will need to keep a lid on explosive plays from Benjamin and ASU’s decent crop of receivers.
ASU will have a puncher’s chance to land a shot or two, like Western Michigan did. Michigan State should be able to withstand that.
On the other half of this matchup, ASU’s defense is good enough once again to hold LAST YEAR’s Michigan State offense under 17 points.
The question is whether MSU’s offense, healthier and more diverse in 2019, is ready to score 21 or more, or 31 or more?
MORE ON ASU’S DEFENSE
* They stunt more than most Michigan State opponents. They stunt more than any 30-front team you’ll see. That’s a unique characteristic for this team.
If ASU in fact plays more of a standard 30 front, with a true nose and two five-techniques, then Michigan State will not only be confronted with the left-handed aspect of facing an unfamiliar front, Michigan State will have more puzzles to prepare for when the stunts and twists are added to the equation.
Is it good for Michigan State that the Spartans already faced a 30 front team in Tulsa? Sure. But, like Dantonio said on Tuesday, and I said earlier in this article, it’s not the same type of 3-3-5 that Tulsa played.
* Tulsa was a strange combination on defense. They rushed 3 and dropped 8 way more than most opponents you will see. But they also sent six-man blitzes with regularity.
I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a defense be as consistently 180 degrees different with their scheme the way Tulsa was. They were either all-in with a blitz, or all back with eight in coverage. And it worked.
GAME WITHIN THE GAME: Collins Pass Pro
ASU didn’t blitz a lot vs Sacramento State. But I’m expecting that they will change that up against Michigan State, and show more potential blitzers at the line of scrimmage against the Spartans, like they did last year. They might show six potential blitzers at the line, then drop all but four. Then show the same look on the next play, and bring all six.
This makes things unnerving for the blockers, especially the RB assigned to help find potential blitzers.
Elijah Collins’ weakness last year was blitz pick-up and pass protection. He has improved in that area. Michigan State had him on the field for some pass pro assignments last week and he looked okay. Not as good as La’Darius Jefferson or Connor Heyward, but he looked okay.
If he is going to become the feature back in this offense, he’ll have to remain “okay,” or better, in pass pro, in order for the entire unit to continue to function well. ASU will test the heck out of Collins’ ability to find the proper blitz threat and stalemate him.
The combination of Collins’ unproven nature in this aspect of the game, and ASU’s capacity to disguise rushers and make you account for six or seven at the line of scrimmage when only three, four or five might be coming, makes for an interesting test for the redshirt freshman RB.
ASU OFFENSIVE MACRO
* ASU usually operates out of the shot gun. I didn’t see any breakneck pace of play with them.
* They will occasionally have the QB operate under center. In short-yardage, they might go I-formation, but I would expect play action passing out of them in short yardage if they show I-formation against Michigan State.
* Their quick-pass game is going to be ASU’s mode of operation on offense.
Their first play of the game vs Sac State was a nice little throwback tunnel screen to their top WR, Aiyuk, for a gain of 24.
The same play went for a 77-yard TD against Kent State.
They will need more of that variety against Michigan State. Michigan State will need to be aware of it and keep a lid on it.
That play won’t get out when Michigan State is in quarters zone (but other windows will be open).
That play is more likely to get out if Michigan State is in man-to-man.
Rock, paper, scissors.
* They ran one play of Wildcat with Benjamin at QB. It gained 1 yard. Third play of the game.
* ASU was 0-for-3 in the red zone through the first 35 minutes of the game, including two FGs and a fumble at the goal line by a freshman WR.
* When ASU tried to run the ball inside the 10-yard line, they went with an inside zone, and they went with a G-lead (front side gaurd pulling). But that pulling guard ran past the initial threat he was supposed to block (like Michigan State vs Tulsa).
On another red zone run failure, the starting TE (87) missed a block on the outside linebacker, who side-stepped him. Again, like Michigan State vs Tulsa.
On a fourth-and-two stoppage out of the I-formation in the second half, ASU used freshman LB Elijan Juarez (6-4, 240) as a fullback. He blocked the wrong guy (meaning that two ASU players ended up on one linebacker while the other linebacker came up free to make the tackle).
On a third-and-1 in the 1Q last week, Benjamin was stopped for no gain on an inside zone. The second-string TE (88) missed a block on that play.
[Again, much like MSU’s miscommunication sloppiness against Tulsa.]
Dantonio lit a fire under those blockers after game one, and achieved results in game two against a middleweight opponent. The Michigan State o-line is confident. Now they need to do it again.
Is ASU capable of making similar improvements? They have had more of a revolving door of personnel up front, and their task is going to be more difficult - especially against this Michigan State defensive front.
This isn’t the right week for ASU’s blocking and run game to get on track.
* Last year, ASU threw for 380 yards behind senior QB Manny Wilkins. The vast majority of those came in the fourth quarter. MSU’s per-pass attempt average last year wasn’t all that bad. ASU had to abandon the run and pass on every down. MSU’s failure came in the inability of its offense to possess the ball and/or finish in the red zone. But 380 is still 380 and ASU will be looking for the same holes again this year.
**
ASU OFFENSE PERSONNEL
5 QB JAYDEN DANIELS (6-3, 175, San Bernadino, Calif.)
* Was the No. 2-ranked dual threat QB in the country last year by Rivals.com and the No. 7 player in California.
* He also visited Cal, UCLA and Utah.
* Was one of four true freshman QBs to start in week one, nationwide.
* Thin neck, looks like a high school kid.
* Is the first ASU QB to throw for TD passes of more than 70 yards in consecutive weeks. He hit the RB Benjamin for 72 yards on a short pass that got out big. He hooked up with WR Brandon Aiyuk for a 77-yard TD against Kent State.
+ Very good wheels. Is not willing to take contact as a runner. But accelerates real well after deciding to run.
+ He did score on a 1-yard zone read keeper against Kent State. So that play is in the package. They don’t want to use it a lot but he’s quick if and when they go to it.
* Good quickness when eluding in the pocket. Side-stepping to safety.
- Is a one-read thrower. Has not yet shown good decision-making ability.
* Was 15 of 24 for 284 with 2 TDs and 0 INTs vs Kent State.
* 17 of 27 for 304 with 1 TD and 0 INTs vs Sacramento State. 242 of his yards last week came in the second half, adjusting when the run game wasn’t working.
- Missed an open receiver on a 12 yard out while on the move as part of a designed roll-out. With his speed and arm, being able to throw accurately while on the run is something he will need to do to take his game up a level.
+ Good pass to freshman RB AJ Carter, staring into a heavy blitz, found the right receiver on a crossing route at the goal line. Good poise in the pocket to make a good throw. But Carter fumbled at the goal line. Replays show it should have been ruled a TD and an early 10-0 lead.
* ASU allowed five sacks to Kent State.
* Coach Herm Edwards said after that game ASU wants to take more deep shots. We haven’t yet seen them do that, but Michigan State is expecting it. Michigan State expected it last week, too, but WMU didn’t go deep often.
* Back-up QBs
Dillon Sterling-Cole, R-Jr. (6-3, 219)
* Threw for 388 yards as a freshman in 2016.
* Didn’t see action in 2017.
* Saw brief action last year and rushed two times for 22 yards.
* Accounted for 302 yards while starting at QB against Oregon as a true freshman in 2016.
Joey Yellen (6-3, 210), R-Fr.
* three-star, No. 57 in California.
* Apparently had an offer from Georgia, in addition to Washington State and Yale.
RUNNING BACKS
3 RB ENO BENJAMIN (5-10, 210, Jr., Wylie, Texas)
* Third-team All-America last year.
* Rushed for 1,642 yards (ranking No. 5 nationally) and 16 TDs last year.
* 102 yards on 22 carries vs Kent State.
* 69 yards on 24 carries last week vs Sac State.
* Last year he rushed for at least 100 yards on nine occasions.
* Dynamic talent, but even the great ones need good blocking. He didn’t get good blocking last week.
* 72-yard catch-and-run TD last week showed his acceleration and game-breaking ability.
* Back-up RB AJ Carter, a sophomore, fumbled at the goal line last week. He dropped a short pass inside the 10-yard line against Kent State.
* Back-up RB Isaiah Floyd, 5-7, 176, a junior college transfer, had 5 rushes for 13 yards last week.
Floyd had 34 yards on six rushes against Kent State.
WIDE RECEIVERS
2 WR BRANDON AIYUK (6-1, 206, Sr., Rocklin, Calif.)
* Junior college transfer in his second year at ASU.
* Also visited Kansas. Had offers from Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State.
* Had four receptions for 98 yards last week.
+ 24-yard catch and run on a throwback tunnel screen on the first play of the game last week.
+ Excellent run-after-the-catch guy, like Darrell Stewart.
+ Deep play action post late in the 3q to gain 48. ASU went with max protection for that deep shot.
* Was open on a deep double move to the corner last week, but Daniels overthrew him.
* Good punt returner. Had an exciting one last week for about 35 yards.
10 WR KYLE WILLIAMS (5-11, 192, Sr., Murrieta, Calif.)
* Excellent “number two” wide receiver for ASU.
* Had 66 catches for 763 yards as a sophomore in 2017.
* Had 44 catches for 449 last year.
* Not off to a blazing start this year. Six catches for 49 yards on the year thus far.
+ Last week, his biggest play was a slot out on third-and-three in the first quarter. Aiyuk ran a slant as the outside WR which ran interference for Williams to get open on the slot out.
* He was ASU’s most productive WR against Michigan State last year. He had seven catches for 104 yards including a turning-point 38-yarder, capitalizing on the David Dowell mistake which started ASU’s game-tying TD drive.
84 FRANK DARBY (6-1, 200, Jr., Jersey City, NJ)
* had 21 catches last year.
* he has four catches on the year for 98 yards.
+ Had a 68-yard TD called back last week. He was covered when the QB threw it but Daniesl threw him open.
8 WR Jordan Kerley (6-2, 184, Austin, Texas)
- Dropped a pass on third-and-two last week, a shallow crossing route that would have gone for at least 10. Looked tentative, short-arming it.
OFFENSIVE LINE
* You have probably heard about their revolving door situation on the offensive front.
A senior left tackle retired.
They moved their all-conference center to left tackle.
They put a senior in at center. But then he went down with a broken foot just a few days prior to the Kent State game.
So they had to put a true freshman in at center.
This is what they are left with, and they don’t look bad as individuals, to me, except maybe the left guard.
LT 73 COHL CABRAL (6-5, 304, Sr., Ranco Cucamonga, Calif.)
* Second team All-Pac 12 at center last year.
My check list on him last week:
- erred in not blocking back on LG power, letting a free avenue for no gain on a Wildcat last week.
- erred again in not sealing a block back assignment for the pulling LG next to him again. (This is the same error Kevin Jarvis had on a TFL on Connor Heyward that we showed in the Film Room, earlier this week).
- Left side LT and LG poor job of filtering out stunting five-man rush, nearly giving up a sack for a safety midway through the 2Q. That’s supposed to be the experienced side.
- Zone right, with the angle didn’t close out on the slanting DT.
+ Good job getting the DE hooked on an outside zone for Floyd for a gain of 8 in the 4Q last week.
* Overall, this guy has a great reputation and no doubt was a terrific center but he seems to be having a more difficult time moving to LT than Kevin Jarvis is. But the potential is there for quick improvement.
LG 56 ALEX LOSOYA (6-3, 291, Sr., Santa Ana, Calif.)
* Started eight games last year.
* Does not look like a returning starter this year.
- Not physical for a senior. When two-gapping, you can push him back. MSU’s d-tackles should do well against him.
C 61 C DOHNOVAN WEST (6-3, 277, Fr., Mission Hills, Calif.)
- Bad shot gun snap on third-and-goal last week, had to settle for a field goal.
* I don’t see him getting physically dominated and making major mistakes. But he isn’t finishing the little things, like getting out to the MLB to help an outside zone play go.
* Good potential having to play too early, like Travis Jackson at Michigan State a few years ago.
* I don’t see him as a major weakness, play-in and play-out. Is he consistently reliable? Probably not.
RG 50 JARRELL BELL (6-5, 299, R-Fr., Norco, Calif.)
* No opinion, other than he doesn’t have a good feel for combo blocking.
* A RG/RT double team on an outside zone with 12:44 left last week seemed high and half-hearted.
RT 71 STEVE MILLER (6-4, 307, Sr., Gibert, Ariz.)
* No opinion, but I like his music.
TIGHT ENDS
87 TOMMY HUDSON (6-5, 255, Sr., San Jose)
88 NOLAN MATHEWS (6-5, 246, Fr.,)
They are inconsistent blockers. Michigan State has problems in that area too but MSU’s are better blockers right now.
* Matthews had a nice catch-and-run off a counter boot drag route for 13 yards last week.
- Mathews dropped a 6-yard hitch last week.
* Their tight ends are on the field a lot, but aren't used in the passing game much, and they aren't strong blockers. That's a net negative for the system.
DEFENSIVE PERSONNEL
* ASU coaches said their defense missed 16 tackles against Kent State, with most coming in one drive in the fourth quarter.
* Their pass coverage had a few gaffes late in the game last week. Casual, undisciplined.
* Does this team have a problem staying focused on finishing? Leadership problems? I don’t know.
DEFENSIVE LINE
* 3-man front.
* Lots of twists and stunts, which is rare for a 30 front.
* Sometimes they will stunt into a two-gap, which is very rare these days.
DT 98 DJ DAVIDSON (6-4, 313, Soph., Mesa, Ariz.)
* Vs sac state: five tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks.
* Decent lateral movement, TFL last week on a sack, QB vacated early, good lateral movement to react to it.
+ Good quickness into the backfield to wrap up RB for TFL when LG and LT vacated to pull. Center trying to cut him off couldn’t get to him.
* Long, strong arms.
+ sack powering through the RT on a DT twist. Long, strong arms to disengage.
* Plays hard, which I think will help him get all-conference mention at some point in his career. Right now he’s pretty solid, not great. Not a game-changer, I don’t think. Not yet. But MSU’s interior blockers aren’t great. So this is an interesting tilt.
Matt Carrick and Luke Campbell are coming off of pretty good games against lesser competition. We will see whether Carrick can continue to play with physicality when the come a little bit bigger.
Campbell is feeling good about himself and the game again. Big week for him to keep that momentum going. Michigan State needs it from him.
DL 90 JERMAINE LOLE (6-2, 284, Soph., Long Beach, Calif.)
* No opinion.
DE 17 GEORGE LEA (6-3, 284, New Orleans)
+ QB hit on a three man rush, stunt on 3-7 in 1Q last week. Bowled over an unsuspecting center on his way to the QB
* Not bad. Active. Decent player. Some physicality, some lateral quickness, decent motor.
They roll two deep on the d-line.
(97 Shannon Foreman, 6-2, 293, Jr.)
* Off the bench.
* Decent pursuit speed to the sideline
+ Good job one-gapping the center to stop a fourth-and-1 QB sneak last week.
(95 DE Roe Wilkins, 6-4, 273, Sour Lake, Texas)
(91 Michael Matus, 6-2, 253, R-Fr., Katy, Texas)
* No opinion. Had a TFL last week when left unblocked.
* Overall, the d-line is packaged just well enough to stay afloat. There wouldn’t be enough enough here to give Michigan State a good allotment of d-linemen in a 4-3, but ASU is gettin by. Maybe I’m underrating them. We’ll find out.
Overall Tulsa had more quality big guys on the d-line than ASU.
LINEBACKERS: The Disguise Guys
20 OLB KHAYLAN KEARSE-THOMAS (6-1, 224, Sr.)
* Coaches named him defensive MVP of the Kent State game.
* Will line up as a down DE.
* Plays in the slot in pass defense.
* Blind side sack cause fumble vs Kent State.
* He’s one of those guys who can come up and threaten to join the pass rush, or drop quickly into coverage. You can disguise things with him, and that’s part of what ASU is going to want to do against Michigan State, something Michigan State needs to show it can solve.
37 OLB DARIEN BUTLER (5-11, 242, Soph., Harbor City, Calif.)
* Captain as a sophomore.
+ Laid out to pounce on QB on a zone read, like Tarzan, last week for no gain on third-and-three in 1Q. That play made you rewind.
+ Good pass rush for a sack as a stand-up DE, forcing a fumble in the fourth quarter last week.
+ Good speed, good hands to defeat the left tackle, good body lean in running the hoop, and a dangerous dive into the back of the QB’s knees. Fearsome play.
MSU’s left tackles aren’t great right now, but better than the left tackle for Sac State on this play. The LT for Sac State lumbered, and it was late in the game so he looked tired. Butler isn’t an every-down pass rusher, so he was fresh.
* He’s another guy who might be rushing, or might be covering. He’s a diguise guy.
To an extent, disguising blitzes is true of all linebackers. But with ASU and their three-man front, they almost always have SOMEONE rushing from the “back eight.” At least one LB needs to join the rush to give them a standard four-man rush. Any one of three or four guys will come up and threaten to the be fourth man. Or maybe all seven are coming.
They didn’t do a lot of this last week. But I’m expecting to see it this week. It bothered Michigan State last year.
ILB 8 MERLIN ROBERTSON (6-3, 251, Soph., Gardena, Calif.)
- Did not look like he pursued smoothly, quickly, and didn’t get off a block on fly sweep early in the game last week.
- Continued to play a half step slow and stiff. Kind of tip-toes into his breakdown.
- Missed a tackle on a third-and-three on the edge.
* Solid hitter when it lands in his lap but stiff in space.
* How to take advantage? When ASU is caught in man-to-man, Lewerke can outrun this guy on a tuck-and-run scramble keeper.
(54 Case Hatch, 6-1, 226, Fr. Gilbert Ariz.)
* Solid second-stringer, motor, active, young Chase Kline type.
* Decent edge rush, running the hoop.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: Loading, Gambling, Biting
* These DBs run well, but it seems to me that they are not under control when converging to play the ball or help on a tackle. It’s like they are going for the spectacular hit, or the spectacular pass break-up and they leave themselves on thin ice.
Not the most disciplined group. They will make mistakes, but they can also make the fantastic play.
* Some of their coverages can be tricky and advanced. On a coverage sack in the 3Q last week, safety 15 Cam Phillips ran with a motioning WR and played man to man. The rest of the secondary played deep quarters zone. Four man rush with DE dropping, zone blitz exotic.
21 CB JACK JONES (5-11, 170, Jr., Long Beach, Calif.)
* This guy is a little bit of loose cannon. Talented, but not sure he is trustworthy.
* Started 14 games for USC in 2017 for a team that won the Pac-12. Led USC with four interceptions.
* He transferred to Moorpark Junior College in 2018. According to his ASU bio, it doesn’t look like he played at Moorpark last year.
* He arrived at ASU this year with two years of eligibility remaining. He was a Top 20 national JUCO recruit.
- Aggressively went for a pass break up, misjudged it and allowed a 15-yard comeback on a third-and-seven last week.
+ Decent pass break up , with a cushion, arriving at the ball at the catch to dislodge the ball, playing zone, came off of No. 1 WR to hit No. 2
*Decent job in off coverage jumping a route over the back for a pass break-up.
- He bit on a Sac State flood of wheel routes and let WR get behind him for 41 yards. He bit on the fly sweep fake and let the deeper of two wheels get behind him.
5 CB KOBE WILLIAMS (5-10, 174, Sr., Long Beach, Calif.)
* Juco transfer from Long Beach CC.
+ Good pass break up on a comeback midway through the 2q. QB telegraphed it
23 TYLER WHILEY (6-0, 205, Sr., Scottsdale, Ariz.)
* Listed as a linebacker but plays safety.
* He and Fields load up as ambitious hitters, often times they are successful, sometimes they get sloppy.
* Sloppy with pursuit angles, makes him susceptible to missing tackles, overrunning tackles.
* He was tested deep last week and left a WR open by a step but Sac State’s QB overthrew him.
- Coverage bust on slant hesitation-and-go for an 11-yard TD pass which cut ASU’s lead to 12-7 with 6:20 to play last week. Cam Phillips, at the LB level, also failed in failing to reroute the WR during the slant portion of the slant and go.
Phillips and Whiley were standing and looking at each other trying to figure out whose fault it was as the slot WR crossed the goal line for the TD.
6 S EVAN FIELDS (6-1, 190, Jr., Oklahoma City)
* He plays the (Pat) Tillman safety position.
+ Aggressive, full-tilt run support safety.
15 S CAM PHILLIPS (6-1, 175, Fr., Houston)
* Interception with 1:54 left effectively sealed the game last week.
* Pretty good open field tackle early in the 2H last week to stop a bubble screen.
+ Good hit on the ball after a 6-yard reception resulted in a fumble in the 4Q last week with ASU leading 12-0. Sacramento State recovered.
* Good hitter.
16 S AASHARI CROSSWELL (6-0, 196, Soph., Long Beach, Calif.)
- Missed tackle on a bubble screen, coming forward too fast, maybe loading up.
ADD IT ALL UP
If both teams play their B game and there are no game-breaking plays on special teams or via strange-bound turnovers, then Michigan State should be 14 points better than ASU. Of course there are almost always special teams factors and turnovers. If those factors are even, Michigan State should remain two touchdowns better.
After saying that, I looked at the betting line for the first time this week, just now, and it’s -14.5. So I’m not sure there’s a lot of value either way on this game.
MSU is the better tackling team and, believe it or not, the better blocking team.
One or two ASU writers whom I respect think it is very unlikely for ASU to win this game.
Ron “Big Moobie” Armstrong, a former Michigan State player from the Perles era and a keen observer of today’s program and my guest on the Skull Session Podcasts, says he doesn’t see Michigan State losing this game.
I don’t disagree with those people. But in a small September sample size, it can be dangerous to assume victory any time two bowl-caliber Power Five programs meet on the field. Michigan State won’t be assuming victory. The Spartans need to work, and they have the type of culture and leadership that should yield constructive gains.
If ASU’s disguises on defense keep Michigan State off-balance, and their risk-taking athletes in the back end win most of their gambles and don’t have bad bites, then this game could stay in the teens on the scoreboard heading into the fourth quarter and there for ASU’s stealing (again).
But I doubt ASU can do enough to win this game. Michigan State would have to lose it. I think Michigan State is on solid ground mentally and physically to handle this business.
