Week 2 is always an interesting beast in college football. For 3-6 months during the Spring and Summer, the prognosticators watch and think and analyze and (mostly) talk about who is going to be good and who is going to be bad. The pervasiveness of it is so hypnotizing that it is sometimes hard to remember that it is just supposition and projection. (Of course Michigan is going to be good. All these magazines say they will be!) Then, Week 1 arrives, and often a lot of those preconceived notions get turned on their head. But, much like a a math problem with too many equations and not enough variables, it is hard to solve for "x." For example, last week, MSU struggled a bit to beat Utah State. Is this because MSU was over-rated or because Utah State was under-rated? Did MSU just have a bad game, or did Utah State just play over their heads? Honestly, we really don't know.
Now, everyone is going to have a strong opinion of which one of those story lines is correct. Some of those people actually know what they are talking about, but frankly a lot of them don't. As for me, I like to look at the numbers, because if nothing else, it gives me an unbiased way to apply the same logic to all 130 teams. But in my methodology, it is quite literally a math problem with too many equations and not enough variables. I basically have just two data points (preseason ranking and Week 1 performance) and up to two of those data points might be meaningless. So, not only do we not know, we actually don't even know what we don't know. So, that makes Week 2 one of the more challenging, but also fascinating weeks of the year.
As for MSU, they travel this week to the dessert to face Arizona State. In contrast to MSU's relatively week performance last week, the Sun Devils actually were one of the best teams in the country last week in their performance relative to the spread, as they beat UT-San Antonio by 42 despite being favored by only 16.5. (But... was ASU really that good, or was UTSA just that bad? Did ASU just... you get the idea.) In the preseason, i.e. just a few days ago, this games looked like a relatively easy win for MSU, as my math predicted that MSU would be favored by 17. But, after last week's performances, my spreadsheet has MSU officially on Upset Watch (conditions are favorable for the formation of an upset, but an upset has not yet been spotted). I projected the opening spread to be 2.2 points, and in reality it opened at 4.0, based on my source. I saw it open closer to 6-7.5 in other places, but I like to use a consistent source (which is the "prediction tracker" website, that also happens to offer data in convenient CSV format.) That corresponds to only a 61%-70% that Spartans fans are happy on Sunday morning. Oh what a difference a week makes.
In other words, I now expect a very competitive game on Saturday evening, based on the limited information we have. Certainly, a lot of intangibles do not point in MSU's favor (the location, the weather, the time, the fact that Big Ten teams are something like 0-10,000 all-time in regular season games on the West Coast, etc.) These factors are important, I believe, but how important? I believe that MSU will give up some plays in the passing game. I believe the game will be close for a while. But, I also believe that MSU will block and tackle better, execute better, and I believe they will find a way to win, because I still believe that they are the better team. But, belief is not knowledge, and I need a few more weeks of data before I believe I will have that.
National Overview
The graph above and table below summarize my picks for Week 2. In general, my algorithm is struggling a bit with trying to figure out whether to believe the preseason rankings or the results from Week 1. For my highlighted covers, I have a crazy high total of 17: (deep breath) Boise State, Wisconsin, Baylor, Memphis, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Utah State, Oklahoma, TCU, Washington State, Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, Appalachian State, Oklahoma State, Army, Texas, Purdue, and Alabama (phew!) These teams share the common factor of either having done very well against the spread last week or have the benefit of playing a team who under performed last week. I would not read too much into these picks, but I will track them anyway.
As for upsets, my algorithm likes 5 total, including Cal over BYU, Fresno over Minnesota, and Briun Slayers Cincinnati over Miami (OH). I am also quite curious about the Army-Liberty game, as FBS newcomer Liberty torched Old Dominion last week by 42 points, despite being a 4.5-point under dog. Vegas obviously took notice, and set the line for Liberty as -11.5 against Army, but my spreadsheet is not yet convinced. Once again, the FPI could only muster 3 upset pick, 2 of which agree with mine, but they added Zona over Houston. In total, my simulation suggests to expect 10.9 ± 2.7 upsets for the weekend.
Now, let's take a quick spin around the country
Big Ten
At first glance, this looks like a normal September weekend for the B1G. All 12 teams playing non-conference opponents are favored, and a few of them looks pretty straightforward. Wisconsin (-34.5) and Michigan (-24.5) are huge favorites over New Mexico and Western Michigan, Purdue (-14) and Maryland (-14) are both 2 TD favorites over other MAC schools (although Maryland is on the road at BGSU), and Illinois should be able to handle FCS foe Western Illinois, right? (RIGHT?!?!?!)
But, a notable 7 games all have spreads in the single digits (including MSU), and since the Big Ten is favored in all 7, there is essentially no where to go but down. Odds are, someone is going to screw up; We just know it. But, on the flip side, it should be a fun Saturday of competitive games. Indiana (-6.5) vs. Virginia should be fun, and Iowa (-4) vs. Iowa State is always entertaining, as is Duke at Northwestern (-3). It is (finally) the dawn of the Scott Frost era in Lincoln as the Huskers (-4) host Colorado, and Penn State (-9) looks to bounce back a bit from their big scare last week by traveling to play their non-rival Pitt (*whispers* Go Narduzzi!).
Despite all those tight spreads, my algorithm only likes one upset in Big Ten land and that is Fresno State to upset Minnesota (-2). Fresno was the surprise team in the FBS last year, and they actually put up more points on the board last week (79) than any other team. They beat poor Idaho so badly that they traveled back in time, quit the FBS, and joined the Big Sky Conference. Can Fresno continue their hot streak in Minneapolis? We will see. Oh, and there actually is one conference game this weekend... but it's Rutgers at Ohio State (-34), AKA the Blood Bath and Beyond Bowl.
SEC
After Week 1, one thing that I think we know is that the SEC is still a pretty good conference. But after racking up multiple high profile wins in Week 1, in Week 2 they are kind of taking it easy, with a few notable exceptions. Four of the teams (Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, and the SEC Wolverines, AKA Tennessee) are taking on FCS opponents, while Alabama (-36) might as well be as they draw Fun Belt foe Arkansas State. Oddly, three SEC teams scheduled Mountain West opponents in Week 2. Missouri (-16.5) will host Wyoming, while Vanderbilt (-7.5) will host Nevada. Only Arkansas (-11.5) was brave enough to schedule a road game to Colorado State. Those spreads are large enough that there shouldn't be an issue, but you never know...
Over in the SEC East, the top four teams decided to start conference play with 2 contest that will immediately start the differentiation process for the East crown. On the undercard is Kentucky at Florida (-14). If the Gators what to stay in the SEC East race, they need to avoid the upset at the hands of the Wildcats. But, the main event is when the Georgia Bulldogs (-9) travel to Columbia to face South Carolina. In my season preview, this contest was highlighted as one of the most potentially impactful games of the entire season. The Gamecocks have a very favorable schedule, and if they can upset UGA, their odds of winning the SEC East go up substantially. I am officially putting the Dawgs on an Upset Watch.
Finally, there are two additional non-conference games down south this week. First Mississippi State (-7) travels to Manhattan, KS to face K-State. On paper, this looks to be the most competitive game of the weekend in the SEC, but after the Wildcats almost choked against South Dakota last week, I just don't know. But, the biggest game on the schedule this week is Clemson's (-11) trip to Texas A&M and Jimbo Fisher's first big test in College Station. In general, this game looks much bigger for the Aggies, as a Clemson loss would certainly not sink their season, especially on the road, but an Aggie win would open some eyes and plant the seed that A&M might be ready to compete in the West sooner than we thought. Incidentally, my spread likes the Aggies to cover, but still lose (+5.5)
ACC
Much of the relevant action in the ACC this week is already known based on the previous break down of the SEC and Big Ten. In the irrelevant category: a full half of the conference scheduled FCS opponents this week, while NC State (-24.5) and UNC (-14) both scheduled two of the worst teams in the FBS (Georgia State and East Carolina... no offense, guys!) In addition four other teams (Clemson, Duke, Pitt, and Virginia) are engaged in cross conference battles with SEC or Big Ten teams that we have already discussed. In this group, the Clemson (-11) at Texas A&M battle is clearly the most high profile and also the only one where the ACC team in favored. So, literally the only team left is Georgia Tech who goes on the road to Tampa to face South Florida (+2). Can the Ramblin' Wreck avoid an upset?
Big 12
Last week turned out to be a pretty good one for Oklahoma. Not only did they win big over a descent (we think) Florida Atlantic team, one of their biggest potential competitors, Texas, dropped a cow patty in College Park. Considering the Big 12 now has a Championship game, the odds that the Sooners win the league eventually seem higher than ever. Even if they somehow finish 2nd in the regular season, they will likely win the title game anyway. In Week 2, they expected to get a reasonable test from UCLA, but the Bruins couldn't even manage to beat Cincinnati last week in the friendly confines of the Rose Bowl. The Sooners opened as 25-point favorites. As for the rest of the conference, the previously mentioned Iowa State (+4) at Iowa grudge match and Mississippi State's visit to K-State (+7) are the only other most notable games. OK State (-31.5) and Texas (-20) are both huge favorites, while Texas Tech and West Virginia are snacking on some FCS cupcakes. TCU (-17.5) does have to travel to SMU this week and Baylor (-9.5) somehow agreed to travel to UT-San Antonio (they must love the River Walk). SMU and UTSA both looked real bad last week, so I am a bit surprised those spreads are as tight as they are. But, those aren't the only Big 12 teams on the road this week as Kansas also will make the trip to Mt. Pleasant to face the Chippewas. The Chips are 7-point favorites. Ouch!
Pac 12
It looks to be a fun week out West. While UCLA (+25) is expected to get blown out by Oklahoma and the Washington and Oregon schools are either playing FCS schools or teams that might as well be FCS schools, the rest of the action looks pretty intense. The only other game with a double-digit spread is Utah (-10) at Northern Illinois and even that has reasonable upset potential. The bad news for the Pac 12 is that of the remaining 4 non-conference games, the Lest Coasters aren't favored in any of them, and 3 of them are on the road. Zona (+3.5) is traveling to Houston, Colorado (+4) is at Nebraska, and Cal (+2.5) is at BYU. The sole home game, of course, involves Arizona State and a certain land grant school from East Lansing. If the Pac 12 were to lose all 4 of those games, as expected, the conference would slide even closer to Post Season oblivion. For the record, my math likes Cal in a mild upset. That all said, the biggest game of the week is the Pac 12 conference opener where USC travels to Palo Alto to face Stanford (-4). Considering the general poor showing by the Pac 12 South in Week 1, it would behoove USC to find a way to upset the Cardinals, otherwise there is the very real possibility that Arizona State emerges on Sunday as the new Pac 12 South favorite, even if they lose a close one to MSU.
Independents / Group of Five
After Notre Dame's contribution to the greater good of the Universe last week, it seems fair that they get a little break. That break will come in the form of Ball State (+35). That looks to get ugly early. If it doesn't, there is a certain school in Ann Arbor that might be in for a longer season than even I think. As for the Group of Five, after a bit of a slow start last week, Week 2 is showing signs of life. In the AAC, possible contenders Houston (-3.5) and South Florida (+2) both host Power 5 teams (Zona and GA Tech). A win by either team could jump-start their campaign for that elusive NY6 Bowl Slot. In addition, the first major AAC conference game of the year takes place when Memphis (-3.5) travels to Navy.
In the Mountain West, Boise (-34) is still warming up on cupcakes like UCONN, while several other teams (Colorado State, Fresno, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, and Wyoming) will go up against P5 schools, as mentioned above. Of those six schools, Fresno (+2 at Minnesota) and Nevada (+7.5) at Vanderbilt have the best shot at an upset. Of course, MSU fans will also be keeping an eye on Utah State (-21) who are host New Mexico State, a team Minnesota beat by 38 last week.
In the MAC, a statement win looks unlikely unless NIU (+10) can upset Utah, as the other main contenders (Ohio and Toledo) both have Week 2 byes. Finally, In C-USA, favorite Florida Atlantic (-7.5) will try to steal a brief headline by beating Air Force.
That all for now, so as always, Go State, Beat the Sun Devils!
Now, everyone is going to have a strong opinion of which one of those story lines is correct. Some of those people actually know what they are talking about, but frankly a lot of them don't. As for me, I like to look at the numbers, because if nothing else, it gives me an unbiased way to apply the same logic to all 130 teams. But in my methodology, it is quite literally a math problem with too many equations and not enough variables. I basically have just two data points (preseason ranking and Week 1 performance) and up to two of those data points might be meaningless. So, not only do we not know, we actually don't even know what we don't know. So, that makes Week 2 one of the more challenging, but also fascinating weeks of the year.
As for MSU, they travel this week to the dessert to face Arizona State. In contrast to MSU's relatively week performance last week, the Sun Devils actually were one of the best teams in the country last week in their performance relative to the spread, as they beat UT-San Antonio by 42 despite being favored by only 16.5. (But... was ASU really that good, or was UTSA just that bad? Did ASU just... you get the idea.) In the preseason, i.e. just a few days ago, this games looked like a relatively easy win for MSU, as my math predicted that MSU would be favored by 17. But, after last week's performances, my spreadsheet has MSU officially on Upset Watch (conditions are favorable for the formation of an upset, but an upset has not yet been spotted). I projected the opening spread to be 2.2 points, and in reality it opened at 4.0, based on my source. I saw it open closer to 6-7.5 in other places, but I like to use a consistent source (which is the "prediction tracker" website, that also happens to offer data in convenient CSV format.) That corresponds to only a 61%-70% that Spartans fans are happy on Sunday morning. Oh what a difference a week makes.
In other words, I now expect a very competitive game on Saturday evening, based on the limited information we have. Certainly, a lot of intangibles do not point in MSU's favor (the location, the weather, the time, the fact that Big Ten teams are something like 0-10,000 all-time in regular season games on the West Coast, etc.) These factors are important, I believe, but how important? I believe that MSU will give up some plays in the passing game. I believe the game will be close for a while. But, I also believe that MSU will block and tackle better, execute better, and I believe they will find a way to win, because I still believe that they are the better team. But, belief is not knowledge, and I need a few more weeks of data before I believe I will have that.
National Overview
The graph above and table below summarize my picks for Week 2. In general, my algorithm is struggling a bit with trying to figure out whether to believe the preseason rankings or the results from Week 1. For my highlighted covers, I have a crazy high total of 17: (deep breath) Boise State, Wisconsin, Baylor, Memphis, Vanderbilt, Michigan, Utah State, Oklahoma, TCU, Washington State, Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, Appalachian State, Oklahoma State, Army, Texas, Purdue, and Alabama (phew!) These teams share the common factor of either having done very well against the spread last week or have the benefit of playing a team who under performed last week. I would not read too much into these picks, but I will track them anyway.
As for upsets, my algorithm likes 5 total, including Cal over BYU, Fresno over Minnesota, and Briun Slayers Cincinnati over Miami (OH). I am also quite curious about the Army-Liberty game, as FBS newcomer Liberty torched Old Dominion last week by 42 points, despite being a 4.5-point under dog. Vegas obviously took notice, and set the line for Liberty as -11.5 against Army, but my spreadsheet is not yet convinced. Once again, the FPI could only muster 3 upset pick, 2 of which agree with mine, but they added Zona over Houston. In total, my simulation suggests to expect 10.9 ± 2.7 upsets for the weekend.
Now, let's take a quick spin around the country
Big Ten
At first glance, this looks like a normal September weekend for the B1G. All 12 teams playing non-conference opponents are favored, and a few of them looks pretty straightforward. Wisconsin (-34.5) and Michigan (-24.5) are huge favorites over New Mexico and Western Michigan, Purdue (-14) and Maryland (-14) are both 2 TD favorites over other MAC schools (although Maryland is on the road at BGSU), and Illinois should be able to handle FCS foe Western Illinois, right? (RIGHT?!?!?!)
But, a notable 7 games all have spreads in the single digits (including MSU), and since the Big Ten is favored in all 7, there is essentially no where to go but down. Odds are, someone is going to screw up; We just know it. But, on the flip side, it should be a fun Saturday of competitive games. Indiana (-6.5) vs. Virginia should be fun, and Iowa (-4) vs. Iowa State is always entertaining, as is Duke at Northwestern (-3). It is (finally) the dawn of the Scott Frost era in Lincoln as the Huskers (-4) host Colorado, and Penn State (-9) looks to bounce back a bit from their big scare last week by traveling to play their non-rival Pitt (*whispers* Go Narduzzi!).
Despite all those tight spreads, my algorithm only likes one upset in Big Ten land and that is Fresno State to upset Minnesota (-2). Fresno was the surprise team in the FBS last year, and they actually put up more points on the board last week (79) than any other team. They beat poor Idaho so badly that they traveled back in time, quit the FBS, and joined the Big Sky Conference. Can Fresno continue their hot streak in Minneapolis? We will see. Oh, and there actually is one conference game this weekend... but it's Rutgers at Ohio State (-34), AKA the Blood Bath and Beyond Bowl.
SEC
After Week 1, one thing that I think we know is that the SEC is still a pretty good conference. But after racking up multiple high profile wins in Week 1, in Week 2 they are kind of taking it easy, with a few notable exceptions. Four of the teams (Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, and the SEC Wolverines, AKA Tennessee) are taking on FCS opponents, while Alabama (-36) might as well be as they draw Fun Belt foe Arkansas State. Oddly, three SEC teams scheduled Mountain West opponents in Week 2. Missouri (-16.5) will host Wyoming, while Vanderbilt (-7.5) will host Nevada. Only Arkansas (-11.5) was brave enough to schedule a road game to Colorado State. Those spreads are large enough that there shouldn't be an issue, but you never know...
Over in the SEC East, the top four teams decided to start conference play with 2 contest that will immediately start the differentiation process for the East crown. On the undercard is Kentucky at Florida (-14). If the Gators what to stay in the SEC East race, they need to avoid the upset at the hands of the Wildcats. But, the main event is when the Georgia Bulldogs (-9) travel to Columbia to face South Carolina. In my season preview, this contest was highlighted as one of the most potentially impactful games of the entire season. The Gamecocks have a very favorable schedule, and if they can upset UGA, their odds of winning the SEC East go up substantially. I am officially putting the Dawgs on an Upset Watch.
Finally, there are two additional non-conference games down south this week. First Mississippi State (-7) travels to Manhattan, KS to face K-State. On paper, this looks to be the most competitive game of the weekend in the SEC, but after the Wildcats almost choked against South Dakota last week, I just don't know. But, the biggest game on the schedule this week is Clemson's (-11) trip to Texas A&M and Jimbo Fisher's first big test in College Station. In general, this game looks much bigger for the Aggies, as a Clemson loss would certainly not sink their season, especially on the road, but an Aggie win would open some eyes and plant the seed that A&M might be ready to compete in the West sooner than we thought. Incidentally, my spread likes the Aggies to cover, but still lose (+5.5)
ACC
Much of the relevant action in the ACC this week is already known based on the previous break down of the SEC and Big Ten. In the irrelevant category: a full half of the conference scheduled FCS opponents this week, while NC State (-24.5) and UNC (-14) both scheduled two of the worst teams in the FBS (Georgia State and East Carolina... no offense, guys!) In addition four other teams (Clemson, Duke, Pitt, and Virginia) are engaged in cross conference battles with SEC or Big Ten teams that we have already discussed. In this group, the Clemson (-11) at Texas A&M battle is clearly the most high profile and also the only one where the ACC team in favored. So, literally the only team left is Georgia Tech who goes on the road to Tampa to face South Florida (+2). Can the Ramblin' Wreck avoid an upset?
Big 12
Last week turned out to be a pretty good one for Oklahoma. Not only did they win big over a descent (we think) Florida Atlantic team, one of their biggest potential competitors, Texas, dropped a cow patty in College Park. Considering the Big 12 now has a Championship game, the odds that the Sooners win the league eventually seem higher than ever. Even if they somehow finish 2nd in the regular season, they will likely win the title game anyway. In Week 2, they expected to get a reasonable test from UCLA, but the Bruins couldn't even manage to beat Cincinnati last week in the friendly confines of the Rose Bowl. The Sooners opened as 25-point favorites. As for the rest of the conference, the previously mentioned Iowa State (+4) at Iowa grudge match and Mississippi State's visit to K-State (+7) are the only other most notable games. OK State (-31.5) and Texas (-20) are both huge favorites, while Texas Tech and West Virginia are snacking on some FCS cupcakes. TCU (-17.5) does have to travel to SMU this week and Baylor (-9.5) somehow agreed to travel to UT-San Antonio (they must love the River Walk). SMU and UTSA both looked real bad last week, so I am a bit surprised those spreads are as tight as they are. But, those aren't the only Big 12 teams on the road this week as Kansas also will make the trip to Mt. Pleasant to face the Chippewas. The Chips are 7-point favorites. Ouch!
Pac 12
It looks to be a fun week out West. While UCLA (+25) is expected to get blown out by Oklahoma and the Washington and Oregon schools are either playing FCS schools or teams that might as well be FCS schools, the rest of the action looks pretty intense. The only other game with a double-digit spread is Utah (-10) at Northern Illinois and even that has reasonable upset potential. The bad news for the Pac 12 is that of the remaining 4 non-conference games, the Lest Coasters aren't favored in any of them, and 3 of them are on the road. Zona (+3.5) is traveling to Houston, Colorado (+4) is at Nebraska, and Cal (+2.5) is at BYU. The sole home game, of course, involves Arizona State and a certain land grant school from East Lansing. If the Pac 12 were to lose all 4 of those games, as expected, the conference would slide even closer to Post Season oblivion. For the record, my math likes Cal in a mild upset. That all said, the biggest game of the week is the Pac 12 conference opener where USC travels to Palo Alto to face Stanford (-4). Considering the general poor showing by the Pac 12 South in Week 1, it would behoove USC to find a way to upset the Cardinals, otherwise there is the very real possibility that Arizona State emerges on Sunday as the new Pac 12 South favorite, even if they lose a close one to MSU.
Independents / Group of Five
After Notre Dame's contribution to the greater good of the Universe last week, it seems fair that they get a little break. That break will come in the form of Ball State (+35). That looks to get ugly early. If it doesn't, there is a certain school in Ann Arbor that might be in for a longer season than even I think. As for the Group of Five, after a bit of a slow start last week, Week 2 is showing signs of life. In the AAC, possible contenders Houston (-3.5) and South Florida (+2) both host Power 5 teams (Zona and GA Tech). A win by either team could jump-start their campaign for that elusive NY6 Bowl Slot. In addition, the first major AAC conference game of the year takes place when Memphis (-3.5) travels to Navy.
In the Mountain West, Boise (-34) is still warming up on cupcakes like UCONN, while several other teams (Colorado State, Fresno, Nevada, New Mexico, San Jose State, and Wyoming) will go up against P5 schools, as mentioned above. Of those six schools, Fresno (+2 at Minnesota) and Nevada (+7.5) at Vanderbilt have the best shot at an upset. Of course, MSU fans will also be keeping an eye on Utah State (-21) who are host New Mexico State, a team Minnesota beat by 38 last week.
In the MAC, a statement win looks unlikely unless NIU (+10) can upset Utah, as the other main contenders (Ohio and Toledo) both have Week 2 byes. Finally, In C-USA, favorite Florida Atlantic (-7.5) will try to steal a brief headline by beating Air Force.
That all for now, so as always, Go State, Beat the Sun Devils!
