Everybody knows the biggest states for college football talent. The biggest are I believe in order (or close to it) are Texas, California, Florida, Georgia, and Ohio. Those areas are in a different league than other places, and a reason why so many teams recruit those areas.
I took a look going back to 2007 and looked where the players from the "Big 10 States" and DC (basically Maryland) committed. I classified into four tiers. High Prestige/Results, Mid Tier, Lower Tier Big 10/BCS, and MAC and below (erroneously put Temple here since I thought they were MAC).
I didn't consider star ratings for this or even other offers - just the committed school.
High Prestige - Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan State, UM. - MSU and UM were tougher calls. 2007 MSU was much different than 2015 MSU. MSU was a "Mid tier" under Dantonio until 2010. UM recruits "big" but the results haven't shown. Wisconsin was an easy call for me. They're usually good, with or without the big names. Of the other national schools, I put Miami (Florida), Virginia Tech here (as long Beamer is there) and Tennessee due more to history than current results.
Mid tier - Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern level. These programs don't always have the best talent, but get the most out of it. Iowa was borderline upper tier. Of national schools, I put Pittsburgh, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Louisville, and West Virginia here. I almost put Boston College here, but they've been on a downslope since O'Brien left. They were a tough call. Minnesota was a tough call. They were clearly lower tier, but Kill's had enough success to be mid-tier today. I went back to 07 however and averaged it out. Baylor and TCU were tough calls. I put them here, although they are turning into upper tier programs.
Lower tier - Minnesota, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois. Basically historical doormats (at least since Tiller left with Purdue) that only occasionally sniff a bowl game. Minnesota is on the border and is turning into a mid tier program. I would have put Temple here if I knew they were a BCS conference level program. Halfway through, I wasn't going to change it, and Temple isn't that good anyway. I put Boston College here post O'Brien, although that was a tough call. I put Kentucky here despite their "recruiting buzz" because they haven't had a bowl game even under Stoops. That was an east call for me. UConn was here, as was Wake Forest, and Iowa State.
MAC and below - Self explanatory, although I put Temple here before knowing they were in a better conference. I didn't feel like changing that because Temple isn't going to be a contender anytime soon.
Here was the list in order.
All Players listed that went on to CFB
Ohio - 1570
Pennsylvania - 953
Illinois - 938
NJ - 820
Maryland - 727
Michigan - 706
Indiana - 427
Iowa - 281
Wisconsin - 264
Minnesota - 190
Nebraska - 121
DC - 127
This isn't that surprising and goes with I think most expect the numbers to be. All isn't as it seemed however.
Upper tier
Ohio - 309
Michigan - 167
Pennsylvania - 125
NJ - 91
Illinois - 90
Maryland - 76
Wisconsin - 69
Indiana - 48
Nebraska - 30
Minnesota - 18
DC - 18
Iowa - 9
Ohio is no surprise. It's worst year was 2007 with 22, where Michigan had more Upper Tier commitments. Numbers range from 25 to 40. Even in a "down" year in Ohio, it has more top tier talent than other states in great years.
Some surprises with Michigan being so high, but three things. 1. I think MSU took players from Michigan in 2008 they wouldn't consider today. 2. Any state that had two major in-state schools will be covered heavily, and that doesn't account for Ohio State and Penn State also recruiting here. 3. Despite all of that, there's also a major drop in Michigan talent since 2010. 66 of the 167 players were 07, 08, and 09. 85 players if you add in the 19 from 2010. From 2013 onward, Michigan had 13, 13, 11, and 12 (so far) players on the "upper tier" level.
That said, Michigan's worst year was 2015 with 11, and it was only behind New Jersey (12), Pennsylvania (16) and Ohio (25). It's usually top 3, and almost always beats Illinois outside of 2014. Pennsylvania is very consistent - 12-16 top tier commitments a year. Penn State gets most, but not all of them.
Illinois and New Jersey I expected to be higher. Jersey cycles a bit in talent, but has really picked up since 2013 (11, 17, and 12 compared to 5, 10, and 6) . I think it's getting looked at more in recruiting then it has been. Rutgers joining the Big 10 helps. Illinois cycles a lot in talent and can range from 4 to 17 going top tier. Iowa got a lot of those players before. Maryland ranges from 7 to 12 which surprised me considering the number of high profile recruits there (similar to Jersey in that sense) and Penn State's success there.
Iowa's numbers may have been higher, but they do a great job with in-state. Nebraska and Wisconsin get the most it can in-state. Indiana has had an upswing in football talent in past few years.
Total Mid-Tier:
Pennsylvania - 203 (Largely due to Pitt, Rutgers and WVA)
New Jersey - 171 (Rutgers)
Ohio - 149 - (Iowa, West VA, and Pitt mostly)
Maryland - 147 (Maryland, West VA)
Illinois - 104 (Iowa)
Iowa - 68 (Iowa)
DC - 40
Michigan - 34 (mostly Iowa)
Indiana - 20
Minnesota - 10
Nebraska - 10
Wisconsin - 9
The question is this. How many of these "Mid Tier" players are good enough to be top tier? A lot of them, especially in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Illinois, and Maryland. Pitt keeps some top players home, as does Iowa and in some cases Rutgers and Maryland.
Total Lower tier:
Ohio - 269 (Cincinnati, Indiana, Purdue, Kentucky)
Illinois - 161 (in state)
Indiana - 114 (in state)
New Jersey - 100 (UConn, Syracuse)
Pennsylvania - 98 (largely Syracuse)
Michigan - 58 (Largely Cincinnati, Indiana)
Minnesota - 54 (in state)
Iowa - 51 (Iowa State)
Maryland - 45
Wisconsin - 21
DC - 20 (Illinois largely - and those weren't lower tier players, but Zooker's pipeline)
Nebraska - 4
Occasionally some of these are top players that slip through the cracks or have a coach's connection (the Zooker, some of Indiana's offense), but most of these aren't the base of consistent championships.
Overall, I think Michigan's talent drop the past five years is a challenge. Hopefully that's just a cycle, and I've heard a lot of good with 2017. MSU is fighting that challenge with continued work in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and going to what I know think is under-recruited New Jersey, Maryland, and Illinois, as well as finding good talent in neighboring Wisconsin/Indiana.
The fact that MSU is still winning despite the in-state challenges (and even Ohio's dip in 2014/2015) says a lot of its program. It's in great shape, and the 2015 breakthrough in new places shows a lot of the rise in its national stature.
I took a look going back to 2007 and looked where the players from the "Big 10 States" and DC (basically Maryland) committed. I classified into four tiers. High Prestige/Results, Mid Tier, Lower Tier Big 10/BCS, and MAC and below (erroneously put Temple here since I thought they were MAC).
I didn't consider star ratings for this or even other offers - just the committed school.
High Prestige - Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan State, UM. - MSU and UM were tougher calls. 2007 MSU was much different than 2015 MSU. MSU was a "Mid tier" under Dantonio until 2010. UM recruits "big" but the results haven't shown. Wisconsin was an easy call for me. They're usually good, with or without the big names. Of the other national schools, I put Miami (Florida), Virginia Tech here (as long Beamer is there) and Tennessee due more to history than current results.
Mid tier - Iowa, Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern level. These programs don't always have the best talent, but get the most out of it. Iowa was borderline upper tier. Of national schools, I put Pittsburgh, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Louisville, and West Virginia here. I almost put Boston College here, but they've been on a downslope since O'Brien left. They were a tough call. Minnesota was a tough call. They were clearly lower tier, but Kill's had enough success to be mid-tier today. I went back to 07 however and averaged it out. Baylor and TCU were tough calls. I put them here, although they are turning into upper tier programs.
Lower tier - Minnesota, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois. Basically historical doormats (at least since Tiller left with Purdue) that only occasionally sniff a bowl game. Minnesota is on the border and is turning into a mid tier program. I would have put Temple here if I knew they were a BCS conference level program. Halfway through, I wasn't going to change it, and Temple isn't that good anyway. I put Boston College here post O'Brien, although that was a tough call. I put Kentucky here despite their "recruiting buzz" because they haven't had a bowl game even under Stoops. That was an east call for me. UConn was here, as was Wake Forest, and Iowa State.
MAC and below - Self explanatory, although I put Temple here before knowing they were in a better conference. I didn't feel like changing that because Temple isn't going to be a contender anytime soon.
Here was the list in order.
All Players listed that went on to CFB
Ohio - 1570
Pennsylvania - 953
Illinois - 938
NJ - 820
Maryland - 727
Michigan - 706
Indiana - 427
Iowa - 281
Wisconsin - 264
Minnesota - 190
Nebraska - 121
DC - 127
This isn't that surprising and goes with I think most expect the numbers to be. All isn't as it seemed however.
Upper tier
Ohio - 309
Michigan - 167
Pennsylvania - 125
NJ - 91
Illinois - 90
Maryland - 76
Wisconsin - 69
Indiana - 48
Nebraska - 30
Minnesota - 18
DC - 18
Iowa - 9
Ohio is no surprise. It's worst year was 2007 with 22, where Michigan had more Upper Tier commitments. Numbers range from 25 to 40. Even in a "down" year in Ohio, it has more top tier talent than other states in great years.
Some surprises with Michigan being so high, but three things. 1. I think MSU took players from Michigan in 2008 they wouldn't consider today. 2. Any state that had two major in-state schools will be covered heavily, and that doesn't account for Ohio State and Penn State also recruiting here. 3. Despite all of that, there's also a major drop in Michigan talent since 2010. 66 of the 167 players were 07, 08, and 09. 85 players if you add in the 19 from 2010. From 2013 onward, Michigan had 13, 13, 11, and 12 (so far) players on the "upper tier" level.
That said, Michigan's worst year was 2015 with 11, and it was only behind New Jersey (12), Pennsylvania (16) and Ohio (25). It's usually top 3, and almost always beats Illinois outside of 2014. Pennsylvania is very consistent - 12-16 top tier commitments a year. Penn State gets most, but not all of them.
Illinois and New Jersey I expected to be higher. Jersey cycles a bit in talent, but has really picked up since 2013 (11, 17, and 12 compared to 5, 10, and 6) . I think it's getting looked at more in recruiting then it has been. Rutgers joining the Big 10 helps. Illinois cycles a lot in talent and can range from 4 to 17 going top tier. Iowa got a lot of those players before. Maryland ranges from 7 to 12 which surprised me considering the number of high profile recruits there (similar to Jersey in that sense) and Penn State's success there.
Iowa's numbers may have been higher, but they do a great job with in-state. Nebraska and Wisconsin get the most it can in-state. Indiana has had an upswing in football talent in past few years.
Total Mid-Tier:
Pennsylvania - 203 (Largely due to Pitt, Rutgers and WVA)
New Jersey - 171 (Rutgers)
Ohio - 149 - (Iowa, West VA, and Pitt mostly)
Maryland - 147 (Maryland, West VA)
Illinois - 104 (Iowa)
Iowa - 68 (Iowa)
DC - 40
Michigan - 34 (mostly Iowa)
Indiana - 20
Minnesota - 10
Nebraska - 10
Wisconsin - 9
The question is this. How many of these "Mid Tier" players are good enough to be top tier? A lot of them, especially in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Illinois, and Maryland. Pitt keeps some top players home, as does Iowa and in some cases Rutgers and Maryland.
Total Lower tier:
Ohio - 269 (Cincinnati, Indiana, Purdue, Kentucky)
Illinois - 161 (in state)
Indiana - 114 (in state)
New Jersey - 100 (UConn, Syracuse)
Pennsylvania - 98 (largely Syracuse)
Michigan - 58 (Largely Cincinnati, Indiana)
Minnesota - 54 (in state)
Iowa - 51 (Iowa State)
Maryland - 45
Wisconsin - 21
DC - 20 (Illinois largely - and those weren't lower tier players, but Zooker's pipeline)
Nebraska - 4
Occasionally some of these are top players that slip through the cracks or have a coach's connection (the Zooker, some of Indiana's offense), but most of these aren't the base of consistent championships.
Overall, I think Michigan's talent drop the past five years is a challenge. Hopefully that's just a cycle, and I've heard a lot of good with 2017. MSU is fighting that challenge with continued work in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and going to what I know think is under-recruited New Jersey, Maryland, and Illinois, as well as finding good talent in neighboring Wisconsin/Indiana.
The fact that MSU is still winning despite the in-state challenges (and even Ohio's dip in 2014/2015) says a lot of its program. It's in great shape, and the 2015 breakthrough in new places shows a lot of the rise in its national stature.
