I am one of those guys who really loves bracketology, and now that the calendar has turned to February, we can now start talking a little more seriously about The Tournament. There has been a lot of talk about what record MSU needs to secure a bid this year and extend the streak. On one hand, this talk is a bit silly, as there are so many scenarios that can happen both in the Big Ten and nationwide that making a solid prediction is quite difficult. That said, enough of the schedule has been played that we can start to draw from historical data and the forward looking predictions start to be a little more reliable.
MSU was 8-5 in the preseason, so if MSU goes 10-8 from here on out, that leaves the final record at 18-13 prior to the BTT. Most people on this site state this as the number MSU needs to hit to make the tournament. That is probably true, but as I look at the numbers in more detail, I am a bit nervous about it.
First of all, let’s say MSU actually finishes 9-9 (17-14 prior to the BTT). If we assume that MSU does not win the BTT (in which case this entire discussion is meaningless), MSU would finish the season with 15 loses. If we look back at team record data back to 2011 when the 68-team expansion happened, I cannot find a single example of a team that made the tournament as an at-large bid with 15 losses. I cannot image it happening when fewer teams actually made it, so I think it is safe to say that 9-9 would mean MSU would likely need to win the BTT.
So, let’s say that MSU is 10-8 (18-13), which is only 1 win better than serious danger-time. I pulled some projected data from the Warren Nolan website (I like his data format) and this is also the record he projects for MSU, with a final RPI of 41. MSU would likely draw the #5 seed in the BTT and would need to play the winner of a game against teams like Illinois and Penn State on Thursday (which would be close to must-win) before facing the #4, which right now is most likely Northwestern. Would MSU need to win that one? Maybe not… but I am not sure. If MSU did win that one, it would be off to the semi’s to face (most likely) #1 Wisconsin. At that point, I think MSU is most likely safe.
Historically speaking, MSU’s situation is a bit scary ending the BTT with 14 loses (in the 10-8 scenario). Since 2011, I count 23 High Major teams with 14 losses at the end of conference tournament play. Of those 23 teams, only 3 made the tournament. Ironically, one of those 3 is MSU, back in 2011 (Tennessee and Marquette also both in 2011 were the other 2). The other good news here is that the RPI numbers do favor MSU. Of the 3 teams with 14 loses to make the tournament, the 3 teams that made it were 3 of the 4 teams with an RPI over 65. As a general rule, regardless of record, high major teams with an RPI better than the high 50s are usually safe. So, if the projected RPI of 41 is accurate, MSU would seem to be safe at 10-8, as long as they don’t pick up a bad loss on Thursday in the BTT.
Speaking of bad losses, that brings me to the final metric that worries me: good wins vs. bad losses. This is a tough metric to quantify, but I have always been fond of comparing wins over the RPI Top 50 vs. losses outside of the RPI Top 50 as a solid tournament metric. Now, we could argue for pages about the value of the RPI, but much like the Dow Jones Average, there is a lot of historical data on it, so I will go with that. If we go back to the 3 teams with 14 losses that made the tournament, they all had a lot of Top 50 wins (at least 5). Tennessee in 2011 had 8 Top 50 wins (but also 7 bad losses). This year for MSU, I count only 3 Top 50 wins which are Minnesota (2x) and Northwestern. Wichita State is projected to have an RPI at 53, so that one is close. On the other hand, MSU has 4 bad losses (Northeastern, Penn State, OSU, and IU are all project to finish outside the Top 50.) This assumes that Minnesota does not tank (Warren Nolan also likes them to finish 10-8) and that does not seem like a sure thing to me. This number concerns me.
Now, you could make the argument that MSU could pick up some good wins in the remaining 8 games. True. BUT, we are already assuming that MSU finishes 10-8, meaning we only go 4-4 from here on out. Of the 8 remaining games, only three teams are projected to have an RPI over 50: @Purdue, @Maryland, and Wisconsin. That would be two tough road games and the current first place team. Tricky, at best. The other five games would be considered potential bad losses. So, in order to get to 10-8, MSU would necessarily have a net gain of one bad loss. (For example, 0 good wins and 1 bad loss or 1 good win and 2 bad losses, etc.) As I have mentioned, one scenario is for MSU to make the BTT as the 5-seed and have a shot at NW, but I am not sure that moves the needle much either as a good win. There is also a nightmarish situation where Minnesota tanks and MSU is sitting at 14 losses with only ONE Top 50 win (Northwestern, you know, the only high-major team to never play in March Madness) and 5 bad losses. I don’t think Selection Sunday would be much fun in this scenario, unless you own stock in Maalox.
Even if MSU finishes at 11-7, we could still be in the situation of having almost no good wins and in a 5-12 match-up on Thursday of the BTT. That is a bit scary. Probably OK, but still scary. In this case, the RPI would almost certainly be strong enough to be in the "safe" zone, but a lot of mid-major tournament upsets would still make my collar feel a bit tight.
Hang on folks; it is still going to be a wild ride.
MSU was 8-5 in the preseason, so if MSU goes 10-8 from here on out, that leaves the final record at 18-13 prior to the BTT. Most people on this site state this as the number MSU needs to hit to make the tournament. That is probably true, but as I look at the numbers in more detail, I am a bit nervous about it.
First of all, let’s say MSU actually finishes 9-9 (17-14 prior to the BTT). If we assume that MSU does not win the BTT (in which case this entire discussion is meaningless), MSU would finish the season with 15 loses. If we look back at team record data back to 2011 when the 68-team expansion happened, I cannot find a single example of a team that made the tournament as an at-large bid with 15 losses. I cannot image it happening when fewer teams actually made it, so I think it is safe to say that 9-9 would mean MSU would likely need to win the BTT.
So, let’s say that MSU is 10-8 (18-13), which is only 1 win better than serious danger-time. I pulled some projected data from the Warren Nolan website (I like his data format) and this is also the record he projects for MSU, with a final RPI of 41. MSU would likely draw the #5 seed in the BTT and would need to play the winner of a game against teams like Illinois and Penn State on Thursday (which would be close to must-win) before facing the #4, which right now is most likely Northwestern. Would MSU need to win that one? Maybe not… but I am not sure. If MSU did win that one, it would be off to the semi’s to face (most likely) #1 Wisconsin. At that point, I think MSU is most likely safe.
Historically speaking, MSU’s situation is a bit scary ending the BTT with 14 loses (in the 10-8 scenario). Since 2011, I count 23 High Major teams with 14 losses at the end of conference tournament play. Of those 23 teams, only 3 made the tournament. Ironically, one of those 3 is MSU, back in 2011 (Tennessee and Marquette also both in 2011 were the other 2). The other good news here is that the RPI numbers do favor MSU. Of the 3 teams with 14 loses to make the tournament, the 3 teams that made it were 3 of the 4 teams with an RPI over 65. As a general rule, regardless of record, high major teams with an RPI better than the high 50s are usually safe. So, if the projected RPI of 41 is accurate, MSU would seem to be safe at 10-8, as long as they don’t pick up a bad loss on Thursday in the BTT.
Speaking of bad losses, that brings me to the final metric that worries me: good wins vs. bad losses. This is a tough metric to quantify, but I have always been fond of comparing wins over the RPI Top 50 vs. losses outside of the RPI Top 50 as a solid tournament metric. Now, we could argue for pages about the value of the RPI, but much like the Dow Jones Average, there is a lot of historical data on it, so I will go with that. If we go back to the 3 teams with 14 losses that made the tournament, they all had a lot of Top 50 wins (at least 5). Tennessee in 2011 had 8 Top 50 wins (but also 7 bad losses). This year for MSU, I count only 3 Top 50 wins which are Minnesota (2x) and Northwestern. Wichita State is projected to have an RPI at 53, so that one is close. On the other hand, MSU has 4 bad losses (Northeastern, Penn State, OSU, and IU are all project to finish outside the Top 50.) This assumes that Minnesota does not tank (Warren Nolan also likes them to finish 10-8) and that does not seem like a sure thing to me. This number concerns me.
Now, you could make the argument that MSU could pick up some good wins in the remaining 8 games. True. BUT, we are already assuming that MSU finishes 10-8, meaning we only go 4-4 from here on out. Of the 8 remaining games, only three teams are projected to have an RPI over 50: @Purdue, @Maryland, and Wisconsin. That would be two tough road games and the current first place team. Tricky, at best. The other five games would be considered potential bad losses. So, in order to get to 10-8, MSU would necessarily have a net gain of one bad loss. (For example, 0 good wins and 1 bad loss or 1 good win and 2 bad losses, etc.) As I have mentioned, one scenario is for MSU to make the BTT as the 5-seed and have a shot at NW, but I am not sure that moves the needle much either as a good win. There is also a nightmarish situation where Minnesota tanks and MSU is sitting at 14 losses with only ONE Top 50 win (Northwestern, you know, the only high-major team to never play in March Madness) and 5 bad losses. I don’t think Selection Sunday would be much fun in this scenario, unless you own stock in Maalox.
Even if MSU finishes at 11-7, we could still be in the situation of having almost no good wins and in a 5-12 match-up on Thursday of the BTT. That is a bit scary. Probably OK, but still scary. In this case, the RPI would almost certainly be strong enough to be in the "safe" zone, but a lot of mid-major tournament upsets would still make my collar feel a bit tight.
Hang on folks; it is still going to be a wild ride.
