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MEN'S BASKETBALL Dr. G&W Stats Analysis: The Sky is not Falling (yet)

I have said quite a bit on the board already about some of the metrics that tell me that things are not nearly as bad as they may seem in East Lasing. Here are some of my thoughts in a more formal context:


I also include here my favorite Kenpom visual, which I will copy/paste here:

20240113 KP image.jpg

This is pretty complicated and I encourage you to read the article (and one from last year) if you want to know what everything means.

That said, the tl/dr message is this:

Based on MSU's preformance to date on a possession-by-possession basis (which is what Kenpom measures) this team is still one of 17 National Title contenders

MEN'S BASKETBALL Odds to make it to the tourney

Dr. G&W does a solid job with his analysis. So, can you come up with the odds that we will claw into the tournament this year.? As I see it, we have to win 10 out of the next 15 to get to 11-9 in Big Ten play, and end up with a 20-12 overall record. The other way to get guarantee we will be In the tournament is by winning the Big Ten tournament which is a long shot.
your thoughts?
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RECRUITING Michigan State re-offers 2026 OL Gregory Patrick: 'A breath of fresh air'

Unsurprisingly, Michigan State football is making sure to prioritize legacy 2026 offensive lineman Gregory Patrick. The Spartans re-offered Patrick on Friday.

Michigan State offensive line coach/run game coordinator Jim Michalczik visited Portage Northern High School on Friday to connect with Patrick's coaches, including head coach Kurt Twichell. MSU defensive coordinator/linebackers coach Joe Rossi also visited Portage Northern on Friday to check in on Patrick's teammate, 2024 linebacker commit Jadyn Walker, who is currently unsigned.

Patrick and Michalczik later spoke on the phone and had a good conversation. That's when Patrick learned about the re-offer.

Shortly afterward, Spartans Illustrated spoke with Patrick. He detailed his excitement for the opportunity, gave his thoughts on the new Michigan State football staff and updated where things stand in his recruitment.

"It was great talking to Coach M and getting to know him," Patrick said about Michalczik. "He definitely is a great coach and genuine guy. He cares about his players on a deeper level, not just that they can play."

More here:

OTHER MSU SPORTS 31-year old military veteran follows his dream with MSU Cheer at Nationals

I went to a Michigan State cheerleading practice earlier this week and was not expecting to interview a 31-year old military veteran.

Check out this fascinating story about Christian Collins, a six-year Air Force vet who is following his dream of competing competitively at the UCA College Nationals this weekend in Orlando.

Sometimes, the best stories are found where you'd least expect them.

FOOTBALL Louisiana replaces Michigan State game, will play Wake Forest in 2024 instead

Louisiana football added Wake Forest to its 2024 schedule for a Sept. 28 game, replacing the previously announced matchup against Michigan State on Sept. 14. Louisana announced the news on Thursday. It is unclear as of press time why this change was made or who Michigan State will now be playing on that day.

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OTHER MSU SPORTS Men's tennis: Daniel Merida update

Sources tell me that the NCAA ruled that Daniel Merida would have to sit out, so he won't be joining the men's tennis team as part of this recruiting class after all:
I don't understand international tennis recruiting rules. Does anyone?
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RECRUITING Michigan State men's basketball offers 2025 shooting guard Darius Adams

Michigan State men's basketball offered 2025 four-star shooting guard Darius Adams a scholarship earlier this week, a source confirmed to Spartans Illustrated. From what I can tell, Adams has not publicly posted the offer, but it was reported earlier and we were able to confirm.

Adams, out of La Lumiere School in Indiana, ranks as the No. 18 overall prospect in the 2025 class. He plays at La Lumiere with fellow 2025 MSU target Jerry Easter II (ranked No. 22 in the 2025 class).

Adams took a visit to Michigan State in September.

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RECRUITING 2025 WR Giyahni Kontosis feels 'great' following Michigan State offer

The Michigan State coaching staff has been busy extending scholarship offers as of late, and also hit the road on Friday to connect with prospects and coaches. One of the newest players to earn an offer from the Spartans is 2025 three-star wide receiver Giyahni Kontosis.

Kontosis, a 6-foot-1, 191-pound wide receiver out of Rock Creek Christian Academy in Upper Marlboro, Maryland, received the scholarship offer over the phone from Michigan State wide receivers coach Courtney Hawkins on Thursday.

Following the offer, Kontosis spoke to Spartans Illustrated to discuss what it meant to him and update where he currently stands in his recruitment.

"It felt great just knowing they believe in me enough to offer me," Kontosis excitedly said about Michigan State.

More here:

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MEN'S BASKETBALL Game Thread: Michigan State at Illinois

Michigan State (9-6, 1-3) travels to Champaign to take on No. 10 Illinois (11-3, 2-1).

This is the second of back-to-back away games for the Spartans. The Fighting Illini are coming off of a close, 5-point road loss against No. 1 Purdue.

It does look unlikely that Illinois' leading scorer Terrence Shannon Jr. will play tonight, which bodes well for Michigan State.

Illinois is the slight favorite in this game in Vegas.

Tip off is just after 9 p.m. on FS1.
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FOOTBALL Potential DB Coach to look out for.


I noticed that @Ryan OBleness follows him and Courtney Hawkins just did as well. He played at Michigan State in the 90s. Is an excellent recruiter. Would be an A+ hire in my opinion.

MEN'S BASKETBALL Don't look now... but Wisconsin is the new Big Ten favorite

As you likely know, I try to post a mathematical update on the Big Ten season once a week or so during conference play. Purdue has bee the overwhelming favorite to win the Big Ten since the beginning of the season.

But one of the major challenges that I face is that the data and the conference landscape change on a daily basis. I have to select a cut-off date for each article. But Big Ten games are played almost every day of the week.

There have been a few major changes in the last few days.

First, Purdue lost on the road to Nebraska and fell to 3-2 in conference play. The next day, Wisconsin went on the road and beat a decent Ohio State team to take a full two-game lead over the Boilermakers and a one-game lead over Illinois. I reran the numbers late last night... and the odds have shifted. Here is what I have right now:

Wisconsin: 50% odds to win or share the Big Ten title
Purdue: 41% odds
Illinois: 30% odds
Nebraska: 2.2%
Michigan State 1.9%

Nebraska has now inched ahead of MSU in the expected win totals as well (11.42 vs. 11.39). Northwestern is No. 6 at 10.5. I am starting to think that both teams can make the NCAA Tournament.

A win over Illinois tonight would certainly help MSU, but I think the Spartans will need to beat both Illinois AND Wisconsin in a few weeks to really be considered back in the race.
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MEN'S BASKETBALL Dr. G&W Hoops Odds Update: New Year, Old Problems

Michigan State Men’s basketball fell to 1-3 in conference play following the loss at Northwestern. Can the Spartans dig themselves out of this hole in the Big Ten race? Let’s check the #math. Click below to learn more.


(I will add some additional comments later, but for now, here is my latest story.)
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